Post by Old Timer on Nov 9, 2019 12:01:47 GMT
An anticlimactic end to the Flat season as for the second weekend in a row we have to give best to the rain. I just hope by NH picks do a little bit better this week. As it’s a long wait till next March!
Aintree 14.05 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 495 (140.9) 20f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 495 (137.5) gd – 11 ran
War Sound 11/2 9-10-13 (136) by 6l from King’s Odyssey 6/1 9-11-2 (139)
Ceepage 7-11-12 (147) (147.9)
15 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (740/144.7) 20.5f gd Chelt 12/1 10-5 1.25l 2/12 off 143 – 145.9
chased leaders, hit 4 out, went 2nd after 3 out, not fluent 2 out, 3lengths down and held flat, stayed on towards finish
Promising chaser in 17/18 season winning a Cl 2 at Kempton in May; just the one start last year when runner-up to the useful yardstick Frodon at Cheltenham last December; normally goes well fresh and stable is in form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); 329-day break; up 4lbs (OR); up 21lbs (wt);
Verdict: looks classy enough to take this if fit for return, a prime contender.
Oldgrangewood 8-11-1 (136) (143.9)
17 May Cl 2 Hcap Chase (157/125.7) 25f gd Aint 6/4 F 11-2 15l 3/6 off 137 – 122.8
held up on inside, effort to lead 4 out, jumped right 3 out, headed after 2 out, switched right before last, no extra flat
Useful chaser at his best, but largely off the pace last season; disappointing 3/6 here in May in first-time cheekpieces; has since had wind surgery and returns from a break; would be thrown in if back to his best.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); down 1lb (OR); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: not won in 23 months;
Verdict: definite chance if breathing operation has restored his ability, a contender.
Duke Street 7-11-6 (141) (127.8)
25 Oct Cl 3 HHd (100/127.7) 21f gd/sf Chelt 9/1 11-8 5l 1/17 off 133 – 119.8
always prominent, led 2 out, clear turning in, ridden out flat, stayed well, comfortably
A disrupted chasing career winning 1 of his first 3 outings over fences; however, he was then off the course from June 2018 till this September, during which he has had wind surgery; has won a pair of HHd this autumn and now returns to chasing; little to go on, but from a useful stable and has the capability of causing an upset.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?);
Verdict: difficult to know but career best over hurdles lto suggests he‘s fit to return to fences; a possible contender.
The Russian Doyen 6-11-5 (140) (136.3)
12 Mar List NHCH (383/141.0) 20f sf Chelt 20/1 11-3 24l 4/20 off 141 -
chased leaders on outside, went close 2nd after 3rd, led 3 out, headed before 2 out, weakened final 100 yards
Promising young chaser as season winning 2 of his 4 starts at Exeter and Newbury and decent effort on final start at Cheltenham when he was there much of the way; likely to improve this season and stable in form.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down 1lb (OR); down in class;
Minus: class; course (?); 242-day break; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: scope for improvement and possible contender.
A mixture of largely unexposed chasers and those the handicapper knows well. I decided to pass on last year’s winner War Sound and newcomer to the Twiston-Davies yard, Riders Onthe Storm, which mightn’t be the smartest of decisions. Of the quartet I gave a closer examination, I’m well aware that Duke Street and The Russian Doyen could cause problems, but decided to go with the more exposed pair who have already shown they have what it takes. So Cepage from Oldgrangewood with perhaps The Russian Doyen claiming third from Duke Street.
Wincanton 15.55 List Hcap Chase 342 (142.1) 25f gd – 14 Run (13 at best)
Last year – 342 (132.2) gd – 16 ran
Present Man 5/1 Jt F 8-11-9 (144) by 2.5l from Sumkindofking 10/1 7-10-13 (131)
The Young Master 10-11-3 (144) (149.1)
27 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (844/143.4) 29f gd Sand 8/1 10-5 10l 2/15 off 142 – 138.1
chased leaders, blundered and rider lost iron briefly 2nd, 2nd after14th, led 17th until ridden and headed last, outpaced and no chance with winner, kept on for 2nd
Winner of the 2014 renewal off 130 he came out of a dry spell to win his first 2 starts last season at Chepstow and Cheltenham and closed the season with placed efforts at Cheltenham and Sandown; raised a couple of lbs for that but has won off higher in the past; is older than the normal winner, but can’t be discounted, especially as he’s had a recent run on the flat..
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down in class;
Minus: 196-day break; up 2lbs (OR); up 12lbs (wt); age (?);
Verdict: older than average winners and may now be better over further, but a contender nonetheless.
Just A Sting 7-10-7 (134) (147.4)
27 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (844/143.4) 29f gd Sa 7/1 10-2 PU/15 off 136
always towards rear, tailed off and pulled up before 2 out
27 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (313/137.2) 24f gd/sf Kemp 100/30 11-5 3.5l 2/8 off 137 – 126.4
raced wide, held up in last pair, closer before 7th, chased leaders11th, 2nd next, led 4 out, joined next, ridden and headed approaching last, stayed on same pace run-in
Showed promise switched to fences at the start of last season winning NHCh at Uttoxeter and Exeter and then runner-up to Adrien Du Port at Kempton over Christmas; could only finish mid-field in the amateur rider’s chase at the Festival – The Young Master (+5) was 15l ahead in 3rd – then was PU in the Bet354 to end the season, where TYM (+3) finished runner-up; fitted with first-time cheekpieces for his return today and gets 7lbs from TYM.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down 2lbs (OR); down in class;
Minus: class; course (?); up 5lbs (wt); 196-day break;
Verdict: early season form suggests he may be a contender on his return.
Sumkindofking 8-10-8 (135) (143.0)
27 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Chase (162/134.9) 26.5f gd Winc 12/1 11-8 10.25l 4/10 off 136 – 123.0
in rear, headway 4 out, chased leaders next, left in 4th last
Runner-up to Present Man (+10) in last year’s renewal runs off a 4lbs higher mark this time round having won at Southwell in May with first-time cheekpieces; didn’t fare too well on fast ground at Newcastle in July and likely needed the race here a fortnight back when 4th to Wandrin Star, some 10l back of runner-up Beau Du Brizais (-1); has been dropped 1lb and is 5lbs better off with BDB.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (13 days); down 1lb (OR); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: improvement likely from recent outing here and a possible contender.
White Moon 7-11-1 (142) (142.8)
27 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Chase (162/134.9) 26.5f gd Winc 11/4 F 11-9 F/10 off 137 – 129.8 (est)
held up towards rear, headway to chase leaders 6th, went 2ndhalfway, led 4 out, fell last
Showed promise in winning an Exeter NCh on New Year’s Day, but efforts either side were spotty to say the list; looked to have put all that behind him on his return here a fortnight ago when he looked to have his race won but came down at the last; handicapper was impressed as he’s raised him 5lbs, which should give hope to Beau De Brizais and Sumkindofking who were out of it; all depends how he gets over his fall, of course, and his rather spotty record to date does raise questions.
Plus: going (W); down 9lbs (wt); recent outing (13 days);
Minus: class; distance; course; up 5lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: depends which version turns up, but a potebtial contender
Present Man 9-11-7 (148) (141.1)
27 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (844/143.4) 29f gd Sand 14/1 11-2 PU/15 off 150
chased leader until after 13th, chased leaders, weakened 4 out, tailed off and pulled up before 2 out
10 Nov List Hcap Chase (342/132.2) 25f gd Winc 5/1 JtF 11-9 2.5l 1/16 off 144 – 134.1
jumped well, led until 5th, chased leader, led again 12th until 15th,led again 3 out, stayed on gamely
Has won the last 2 renewals here off 142 and 144, although 3 subsequent starts have seen him back down to only a 4lbs higher mark; one of several in this field to have failed in the Bet365 when last seen and is 4lbs better off with TYM today; has excellent record over fences here (21U11) and has to be considered on his return again.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); down 2lbs (OR); down in class;
Minus: 196-day break; up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: two-time winner has to be respected at a course where he runs well, a contender.
Give Me A Copper 9-11-1 (142)
27 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (844/143.4) 29f gd Sand 7/1 10-9 29l 4/15 off 143
mid-division, lost place before 14th, plugged on after 3 out
Won a Cl 3 NCh at Kempton in November 2017, but missed the rest of that season and not seen until finishing a beaten 4/16 in a Cl 2 at Sandown in February; beaten when falling at the last in the Ultima at the festival in March and then a well beaten 4/15 in the Bet365 at Sandown at the end of April; The Young Master (-4) was 19l ahead in 2nd; likely to show improvement this season, but one suspects he’ll need more help from the handicapper as he’s only 3lbs better off with TYM today.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down 1lb (OR); down in class;
Minus: class; course (?); up 6lbs (wt); 196-day break;
Verdict: hard to call him a strong contender on what he’s shown in public over fences so far and I’ll pass.
Even trappier than normal and there aren’t a lot of trends to help us. The last 16 renewals have all been won by gorses 9yo or younger, which doesn’t say a lot for The Young Master, but.... There does seem some mileage in having previously run here, having previously won 1 – 5 chases, one of which was over 24f+, as 13 of the last 16 winners will attest. Mind you, 13 winners had also finished in the top four lto, and that negates several fancied runners.
Besides the half dozen on my shortlist, I also had a look at Rock The Kasbah, Beau De Brizais and Soupy Soups before deciding to pass. Of the Mulholland pair I prefer The Young Master, and likewise from the Nicholls pair I refer Present Man. That still leaves me with five contenders and the first to join the discards is the current favourite White Moon who has to prove his ability to me. The Young Master would seem to have the beating of several of these and as a 10yo is a little on the old side, so I’ll pass for the win. I also think that Sumkindofking might have seen his chance go. Thus I’d be more inclined with Just A Sting and Present Man to battle it out in front of The Young Master perhaps. So it’s Just A Sting from Present Man and The Young Master for me.
Aintree 14.05 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 495 (140.9) 20f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 495 (137.5) gd – 11 ran
War Sound 11/2 9-10-13 (136) by 6l from King’s Odyssey 6/1 9-11-2 (139)
Ceepage 7-11-12 (147) (147.9)
15 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (740/144.7) 20.5f gd Chelt 12/1 10-5 1.25l 2/12 off 143 – 145.9
chased leaders, hit 4 out, went 2nd after 3 out, not fluent 2 out, 3lengths down and held flat, stayed on towards finish
Promising chaser in 17/18 season winning a Cl 2 at Kempton in May; just the one start last year when runner-up to the useful yardstick Frodon at Cheltenham last December; normally goes well fresh and stable is in form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); 329-day break; up 4lbs (OR); up 21lbs (wt);
Verdict: looks classy enough to take this if fit for return, a prime contender.
Oldgrangewood 8-11-1 (136) (143.9)
17 May Cl 2 Hcap Chase (157/125.7) 25f gd Aint 6/4 F 11-2 15l 3/6 off 137 – 122.8
held up on inside, effort to lead 4 out, jumped right 3 out, headed after 2 out, switched right before last, no extra flat
Useful chaser at his best, but largely off the pace last season; disappointing 3/6 here in May in first-time cheekpieces; has since had wind surgery and returns from a break; would be thrown in if back to his best.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); down 1lb (OR); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: not won in 23 months;
Verdict: definite chance if breathing operation has restored his ability, a contender.
Duke Street 7-11-6 (141) (127.8)
25 Oct Cl 3 HHd (100/127.7) 21f gd/sf Chelt 9/1 11-8 5l 1/17 off 133 – 119.8
always prominent, led 2 out, clear turning in, ridden out flat, stayed well, comfortably
A disrupted chasing career winning 1 of his first 3 outings over fences; however, he was then off the course from June 2018 till this September, during which he has had wind surgery; has won a pair of HHd this autumn and now returns to chasing; little to go on, but from a useful stable and has the capability of causing an upset.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?);
Verdict: difficult to know but career best over hurdles lto suggests he‘s fit to return to fences; a possible contender.
The Russian Doyen 6-11-5 (140) (136.3)
12 Mar List NHCH (383/141.0) 20f sf Chelt 20/1 11-3 24l 4/20 off 141 -
chased leaders on outside, went close 2nd after 3rd, led 3 out, headed before 2 out, weakened final 100 yards
Promising young chaser as season winning 2 of his 4 starts at Exeter and Newbury and decent effort on final start at Cheltenham when he was there much of the way; likely to improve this season and stable in form.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down 1lb (OR); down in class;
Minus: class; course (?); 242-day break; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: scope for improvement and possible contender.
A mixture of largely unexposed chasers and those the handicapper knows well. I decided to pass on last year’s winner War Sound and newcomer to the Twiston-Davies yard, Riders Onthe Storm, which mightn’t be the smartest of decisions. Of the quartet I gave a closer examination, I’m well aware that Duke Street and The Russian Doyen could cause problems, but decided to go with the more exposed pair who have already shown they have what it takes. So Cepage from Oldgrangewood with perhaps The Russian Doyen claiming third from Duke Street.
Wincanton 15.55 List Hcap Chase 342 (142.1) 25f gd – 14 Run (13 at best)
Last year – 342 (132.2) gd – 16 ran
Present Man 5/1 Jt F 8-11-9 (144) by 2.5l from Sumkindofking 10/1 7-10-13 (131)
The Young Master 10-11-3 (144) (149.1)
27 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (844/143.4) 29f gd Sand 8/1 10-5 10l 2/15 off 142 – 138.1
chased leaders, blundered and rider lost iron briefly 2nd, 2nd after14th, led 17th until ridden and headed last, outpaced and no chance with winner, kept on for 2nd
Winner of the 2014 renewal off 130 he came out of a dry spell to win his first 2 starts last season at Chepstow and Cheltenham and closed the season with placed efforts at Cheltenham and Sandown; raised a couple of lbs for that but has won off higher in the past; is older than the normal winner, but can’t be discounted, especially as he’s had a recent run on the flat..
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down in class;
Minus: 196-day break; up 2lbs (OR); up 12lbs (wt); age (?);
Verdict: older than average winners and may now be better over further, but a contender nonetheless.
Just A Sting 7-10-7 (134) (147.4)
27 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (844/143.4) 29f gd Sa 7/1 10-2 PU/15 off 136
always towards rear, tailed off and pulled up before 2 out
27 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (313/137.2) 24f gd/sf Kemp 100/30 11-5 3.5l 2/8 off 137 – 126.4
raced wide, held up in last pair, closer before 7th, chased leaders11th, 2nd next, led 4 out, joined next, ridden and headed approaching last, stayed on same pace run-in
Showed promise switched to fences at the start of last season winning NHCh at Uttoxeter and Exeter and then runner-up to Adrien Du Port at Kempton over Christmas; could only finish mid-field in the amateur rider’s chase at the Festival – The Young Master (+5) was 15l ahead in 3rd – then was PU in the Bet354 to end the season, where TYM (+3) finished runner-up; fitted with first-time cheekpieces for his return today and gets 7lbs from TYM.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down 2lbs (OR); down in class;
Minus: class; course (?); up 5lbs (wt); 196-day break;
Verdict: early season form suggests he may be a contender on his return.
Sumkindofking 8-10-8 (135) (143.0)
27 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Chase (162/134.9) 26.5f gd Winc 12/1 11-8 10.25l 4/10 off 136 – 123.0
in rear, headway 4 out, chased leaders next, left in 4th last
Runner-up to Present Man (+10) in last year’s renewal runs off a 4lbs higher mark this time round having won at Southwell in May with first-time cheekpieces; didn’t fare too well on fast ground at Newcastle in July and likely needed the race here a fortnight back when 4th to Wandrin Star, some 10l back of runner-up Beau Du Brizais (-1); has been dropped 1lb and is 5lbs better off with BDB.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (13 days); down 1lb (OR); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: improvement likely from recent outing here and a possible contender.
White Moon 7-11-1 (142) (142.8)
27 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Chase (162/134.9) 26.5f gd Winc 11/4 F 11-9 F/10 off 137 – 129.8 (est)
held up towards rear, headway to chase leaders 6th, went 2ndhalfway, led 4 out, fell last
Showed promise in winning an Exeter NCh on New Year’s Day, but efforts either side were spotty to say the list; looked to have put all that behind him on his return here a fortnight ago when he looked to have his race won but came down at the last; handicapper was impressed as he’s raised him 5lbs, which should give hope to Beau De Brizais and Sumkindofking who were out of it; all depends how he gets over his fall, of course, and his rather spotty record to date does raise questions.
Plus: going (W); down 9lbs (wt); recent outing (13 days);
Minus: class; distance; course; up 5lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: depends which version turns up, but a potebtial contender
Present Man 9-11-7 (148) (141.1)
27 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (844/143.4) 29f gd Sand 14/1 11-2 PU/15 off 150
chased leader until after 13th, chased leaders, weakened 4 out, tailed off and pulled up before 2 out
10 Nov List Hcap Chase (342/132.2) 25f gd Winc 5/1 JtF 11-9 2.5l 1/16 off 144 – 134.1
jumped well, led until 5th, chased leader, led again 12th until 15th,led again 3 out, stayed on gamely
Has won the last 2 renewals here off 142 and 144, although 3 subsequent starts have seen him back down to only a 4lbs higher mark; one of several in this field to have failed in the Bet365 when last seen and is 4lbs better off with TYM today; has excellent record over fences here (21U11) and has to be considered on his return again.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); down 2lbs (OR); down in class;
Minus: 196-day break; up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: two-time winner has to be respected at a course where he runs well, a contender.
Give Me A Copper 9-11-1 (142)
27 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (844/143.4) 29f gd Sand 7/1 10-9 29l 4/15 off 143
mid-division, lost place before 14th, plugged on after 3 out
Won a Cl 3 NCh at Kempton in November 2017, but missed the rest of that season and not seen until finishing a beaten 4/16 in a Cl 2 at Sandown in February; beaten when falling at the last in the Ultima at the festival in March and then a well beaten 4/15 in the Bet365 at Sandown at the end of April; The Young Master (-4) was 19l ahead in 2nd; likely to show improvement this season, but one suspects he’ll need more help from the handicapper as he’s only 3lbs better off with TYM today.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down 1lb (OR); down in class;
Minus: class; course (?); up 6lbs (wt); 196-day break;
Verdict: hard to call him a strong contender on what he’s shown in public over fences so far and I’ll pass.
Even trappier than normal and there aren’t a lot of trends to help us. The last 16 renewals have all been won by gorses 9yo or younger, which doesn’t say a lot for The Young Master, but.... There does seem some mileage in having previously run here, having previously won 1 – 5 chases, one of which was over 24f+, as 13 of the last 16 winners will attest. Mind you, 13 winners had also finished in the top four lto, and that negates several fancied runners.
Besides the half dozen on my shortlist, I also had a look at Rock The Kasbah, Beau De Brizais and Soupy Soups before deciding to pass. Of the Mulholland pair I prefer The Young Master, and likewise from the Nicholls pair I refer Present Man. That still leaves me with five contenders and the first to join the discards is the current favourite White Moon who has to prove his ability to me. The Young Master would seem to have the beating of several of these and as a 10yo is a little on the old side, so I’ll pass for the win. I also think that Sumkindofking might have seen his chance go. Thus I’d be more inclined with Just A Sting and Present Man to battle it out in front of The Young Master perhaps. So it’s Just A Sting from Present Man and The Young Master for me.
