Post by Old Timer on Oct 12, 2019 11:51:48 GMT
Well the rains did arrive at York yesterday, although things did work roughly as expected, except for the Fahey horse that not only finished the race this time, but actually went and won! It’s a sign the season is drawing to a close I guess, and any more winners will be as scarce as hens’ teeth. How true that is was confirmed by a look at today’s cards!
York 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap 622 (97.0) 6f sf – 22 Run
3yo = 1lb wfa allowance
Last year – 622 (98.6) sf – 17 ran
Major Jumbo 12/1 4-9-7 (102) Dr 5 by 0.75l from Flying Pursuit 6/1 Jt F 5-9-5 (100) Dr 19
Staxton 10/1 3-9-6 (102) Dr 16 was 3.8l 6th
Summerghand 12/1 4-9-3 (98) Dr 3 was 7.3l 10th
George Bowen 16/1 6-9-2 (102) Dr 7 was 11.55l 13th
Growl 7-9-3 (98) Dr 16 (107.7)
21 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (1245/100.0) 6f gd Ayr 28/1 8-9 0.5l 2/24 off 95 – 96.7
in touch far side, driven over 2f out, ridden to challenge over 1f out, led narrowly overall inside final furlong, kept on, headed near finish
Frustrating animal, but returned to form in breaking a near 3-year drought at Ripon in mid-August; has since upped that form by finishing runner-up in the Ayr Gold Cup, 0.5l ahead of Gulliver (+3) in 3rd with Summerghand (+7) a further 0.75l back in 4th; raised 3lbs for that, but difficult to surmise whether he’ll run to that level again today, as he usually runs well at Ayr, not as well at York.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 4lbs (OR); up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: a repeat of Ayr form would put him close, but doubts that he’ll produce diminish his contender claims.
Gulliver 5-9-5 (100) Dr 5 (107.5)
21 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (1245/100.0) 6f gd Ayr 8/1 8-12 1l 3/24 off 98 – 98.5
in touch far side, driven to chase leaders inside final 2f, soon ridden, stayed on to challenge and every chance inside final furlong, just held
Has returned to turf since joining the O’Meara yard at the end of last season; won over C&D here at the end of June, but lost form thereafter and has only come into his own again the last twice, the latest when 3rd in the Ayr Gold Cup, 0.5l back of runner-up Growl (-3) with Summerghand (+4) a further 0.75l back in 4th; raised 2lbs for that and1lb better off with Growl, but meets S on the same terms.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: going; up 2lbs (OR); up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: question about the ground, but looks a contender otherwise.
Danzeno 8-9-10 (105) Dr 10 (107.3)
05 Oct List Stks (255/) 5f sf Ascot 6/1 9-0 1.75l 3/11 off 105
chased leaders, went 2nd over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong, lost 2nd near finish
10 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (296/101.5) 5f gd Ascot 13/8 F 0.1l 3/10 off 105 – 109.2
slowly into stride, soon held up in touch, went 2nd well over 1f out, soon pushed along and edged left, ridden and sustained challenge final furlong, ran on
Useful sprinter who was a close 3rd in the Wokingham back in June; perhaps should have better strike rate, but has won at Nottingham and Haydock this season and again ran well on last hcap start over 5f in the Shergar Dash at Ascot in August; has since twice been bested by Dakota Gold in listed company over 6f here, and 5f at Ascot last Saturday; likely to be thereabouts, but one always suspects that he’ll find one or two to beat him at this level, although he does have a useful claimer booked.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (7 days); down in class
Minus: up 10lbs (wt);
Verdict: useful, but maybe in between listed and hcap company and perhaps not the strongest contender here.
Aplomb 3-9-1 (97) Dr 17 (100.2)
04 Oct Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (187/92.8) 7f sf Ascot 4/1 8-10 0.25l 2/10 off 93 – 88.2
tracked leaders, ridden and every chance approaching final furlong, pressed winner inside final furlong, ran on
Improving young sprinter who won off 88 at Leicester in August and only narrowly beaten off 93 at Ascot the Friday before last; runs off a 4lbs higher mark here and carries 5lbs more actual weight against older horses for the first time; however, going and distance suit, as should York’s straight 6f.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 5lbs (wt); taking on older horses for 1st time;
Verdict: improving 3yo, but up in weight against older horses for the first time may damage his claim as a leading contender.
A York sprint, I must be mad! As usual, I have trouble making sense of some of the market trends – can’t see the reason for Hey Jonesy based on this season’s form. I know Ryan has won the last two renewals, but that’s a stretch. Then we get the perennial question as to which side of the draw will be favoured today. Aplomb is another whose price is trainer driven I think. Yes, he’s an improving 3yo sprinter, but yet to win at this level, is up 4lbs for finishing runner-up, plus is up in physical weight as he takes on older horses for the first time. I think he could run well, but not for me today. Growl is a horse that has sorely tried my patience in recent years and while Fahey had an ‘unexpected’ winner yesterday, I don’t think Growl will win today. Of my remaining duo, Danzeno is, of course the class horse, but may again find one or two too good. Thus I’m going for Gulliver from Danzeno in the hopes that perhaps one or the other might make the frame. In York sprints, I’ve learned that’s the best you can ever hope for.
Newmarket 16.10 Cl 2 Hcap 2179 (92.3) 18f gd/sf – 31 Run
3yos = 10lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 3072 (94.8) gd/fm – 33 ran
Low Sun 10/1 5-9-2 (97) Dr 13 by 0.25l from Uradel 16/1 7-8-13 (94) Dr 16
Coeur De Lion 33/1 5-8-11 (92) Dr 34 was 24.6l 16th
Stratum 6/1 5-9-7 (102) Dr 18 was 32.1l 20th
Buildmeupbuttercup 5-9-0 (94) Dr 21 (105.5)
14 Sep Prem Hcap (885/88.2) 13f gd Leop 7/2 F 9-11 0.25l 2/17 off 94 – 89.6
waited with, soon raced in 10th, 9th travelling smoothly into straight, headway to challenge inside final furlong, slightly impeded and kept on well without quite matching winner from over 50yds out
18 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560/93.7) 20f gd/sf Ascot 7/1 9-1 1.25l 2/19 off 91 – 91.5
held up in rear, wide and headway over 1f out, ridden to press winner inside final furlong, no impression towards finish
Formerly with Mick Channon, but has progressed since moving across the Irish Sea towards the end of last season; won a 16f mdn hurdle on debut for new yard and proved her stamina when an impressive runner-up to The Grand Visir in the Ascot Stks in June finishing 3.5l clear of Time To Study (-5) in 3rd; followed up by easily taking a modest mdn over 12f at Galway before again finishing runner-up in a premier hcap over 13f at Leopardstown last month; runs off the same mark today but carries 11lbs less in physical weight; one of 4 stable entries as Mullins looks to double up on last year’s success.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); form run lto (28 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: course;
Verdict: largely unexposed at this sort of trip, but indications to date suggest she’s a prime contender.
Themaxwecan 3-8-12 (102) Dr 2 (104.0)
O3 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (126/91.8) 16f gd/fm Good Ev F 9-5 1l 1/6 off 98 – 97.5
awkwardly away, tracked leader after 1f, led 2f out and sent for home, ridden over 1f out, stayed on
Fast-improving colt who showed that stamina no problem when staying on to win against older horses at Goodwood last month; carries a 4lbs penalty for that, although carries 7lbs less actual weight; the big worry though would be the ground, as his best form has been on fast ground.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (39 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: big worry here the ground, but a contender.
Ranch Hand 3-8-8 (98) Dr 4 (100.5)
07 Sep Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (622/88.8) 14f sf Hayd 14/1 9-1 2l 1/12 off 94 – 90.5
close up, stayed far side, ridden to lead entering final furlong, ran on
Heavily supported on basis of winning hcap debut over 14f on sf at Haydock early last month, for which he carries a 4lbs penalty; no doubt more to come, although several negatives including no run over 16f or further, plus the poor record of horses coming from Haydock.
Plus: class (W); form run lto (35 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); distance (?); course; up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: improving 3yo, but questions as to him being a strong contender
Land Of Oz 3-8-1 (91) Dr 30 (97.8)
21 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (311/86.1) 18f gd/fm Nwmk 11/10 F 8-0 1.5l 1/8 off 87 – 80.8
keen held in towards rear, headway 6f out, led over 2f out, ridden and ran on
Typical Prescott improver having won 6 of his 8 starts this season from 14f to 18f, the latest being in the trial for this 3 weeks ago; carries a double penalty, though wouldn’t have got in without it and surely there’s more to come; however, this a much tougher ask and stable jockey remains loyal to the elder Timoshenko.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 4lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt); wide draw (?);
Verdict: can’t discount Prescott entries, but maybe this is a step too far at this stage and not the strongest contender today.
The hardest of races as usual as there are so many potential contenders, plus hat is not lost is that this is usually a race won by horse at a double digit price. Low Sun killed off the 5yo drought last year and the stable has another one of them on my shortlist this year, plus three 3yos – and there’s only been one 3yo winner this past decade. A previous win over at least 16f is almost obligatory, with just a single winner in the past 13 years not complying, or for that matter having won more than 4 hcaps. Meanwhile, only 2 had less than 3 starts in the current season. Important too, the form lto, as a top five finish is almost obligatory.
Others that made my initial shortlist, only to be later removed included Coeur De Lion, Time To Study, Great White Shark. Billy Ray and Darksideoftarnside. From my final quartet, they’re quickly joined by the 3yo pair of Ranch Hand and Land Of Oz, while to be quite honest I’m not really sure that the remaining pair are really deserving of selection. However, perhaps just for the sake of putting something up after so many hours of study, Themaxwecan and Buildmeupbuttercup are offered though far more in hope than expectation.
York 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap 622 (97.0) 6f sf – 22 Run
3yo = 1lb wfa allowance
Last year – 622 (98.6) sf – 17 ran
Major Jumbo 12/1 4-9-7 (102) Dr 5 by 0.75l from Flying Pursuit 6/1 Jt F 5-9-5 (100) Dr 19
Staxton 10/1 3-9-6 (102) Dr 16 was 3.8l 6th
Summerghand 12/1 4-9-3 (98) Dr 3 was 7.3l 10th
George Bowen 16/1 6-9-2 (102) Dr 7 was 11.55l 13th
Growl 7-9-3 (98) Dr 16 (107.7)
21 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (1245/100.0) 6f gd Ayr 28/1 8-9 0.5l 2/24 off 95 – 96.7
in touch far side, driven over 2f out, ridden to challenge over 1f out, led narrowly overall inside final furlong, kept on, headed near finish
Frustrating animal, but returned to form in breaking a near 3-year drought at Ripon in mid-August; has since upped that form by finishing runner-up in the Ayr Gold Cup, 0.5l ahead of Gulliver (+3) in 3rd with Summerghand (+7) a further 0.75l back in 4th; raised 3lbs for that, but difficult to surmise whether he’ll run to that level again today, as he usually runs well at Ayr, not as well at York.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 4lbs (OR); up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: a repeat of Ayr form would put him close, but doubts that he’ll produce diminish his contender claims.
Gulliver 5-9-5 (100) Dr 5 (107.5)
21 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (1245/100.0) 6f gd Ayr 8/1 8-12 1l 3/24 off 98 – 98.5
in touch far side, driven to chase leaders inside final 2f, soon ridden, stayed on to challenge and every chance inside final furlong, just held
Has returned to turf since joining the O’Meara yard at the end of last season; won over C&D here at the end of June, but lost form thereafter and has only come into his own again the last twice, the latest when 3rd in the Ayr Gold Cup, 0.5l back of runner-up Growl (-3) with Summerghand (+4) a further 0.75l back in 4th; raised 2lbs for that and1lb better off with Growl, but meets S on the same terms.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: going; up 2lbs (OR); up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: question about the ground, but looks a contender otherwise.
Danzeno 8-9-10 (105) Dr 10 (107.3)
05 Oct List Stks (255/) 5f sf Ascot 6/1 9-0 1.75l 3/11 off 105
chased leaders, went 2nd over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong, lost 2nd near finish
10 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (296/101.5) 5f gd Ascot 13/8 F 0.1l 3/10 off 105 – 109.2
slowly into stride, soon held up in touch, went 2nd well over 1f out, soon pushed along and edged left, ridden and sustained challenge final furlong, ran on
Useful sprinter who was a close 3rd in the Wokingham back in June; perhaps should have better strike rate, but has won at Nottingham and Haydock this season and again ran well on last hcap start over 5f in the Shergar Dash at Ascot in August; has since twice been bested by Dakota Gold in listed company over 6f here, and 5f at Ascot last Saturday; likely to be thereabouts, but one always suspects that he’ll find one or two to beat him at this level, although he does have a useful claimer booked.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (7 days); down in class
Minus: up 10lbs (wt);
Verdict: useful, but maybe in between listed and hcap company and perhaps not the strongest contender here.
Aplomb 3-9-1 (97) Dr 17 (100.2)
04 Oct Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (187/92.8) 7f sf Ascot 4/1 8-10 0.25l 2/10 off 93 – 88.2
tracked leaders, ridden and every chance approaching final furlong, pressed winner inside final furlong, ran on
Improving young sprinter who won off 88 at Leicester in August and only narrowly beaten off 93 at Ascot the Friday before last; runs off a 4lbs higher mark here and carries 5lbs more actual weight against older horses for the first time; however, going and distance suit, as should York’s straight 6f.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 5lbs (wt); taking on older horses for 1st time;
Verdict: improving 3yo, but up in weight against older horses for the first time may damage his claim as a leading contender.
A York sprint, I must be mad! As usual, I have trouble making sense of some of the market trends – can’t see the reason for Hey Jonesy based on this season’s form. I know Ryan has won the last two renewals, but that’s a stretch. Then we get the perennial question as to which side of the draw will be favoured today. Aplomb is another whose price is trainer driven I think. Yes, he’s an improving 3yo sprinter, but yet to win at this level, is up 4lbs for finishing runner-up, plus is up in physical weight as he takes on older horses for the first time. I think he could run well, but not for me today. Growl is a horse that has sorely tried my patience in recent years and while Fahey had an ‘unexpected’ winner yesterday, I don’t think Growl will win today. Of my remaining duo, Danzeno is, of course the class horse, but may again find one or two too good. Thus I’m going for Gulliver from Danzeno in the hopes that perhaps one or the other might make the frame. In York sprints, I’ve learned that’s the best you can ever hope for.
Newmarket 16.10 Cl 2 Hcap 2179 (92.3) 18f gd/sf – 31 Run
3yos = 10lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 3072 (94.8) gd/fm – 33 ran
Low Sun 10/1 5-9-2 (97) Dr 13 by 0.25l from Uradel 16/1 7-8-13 (94) Dr 16
Coeur De Lion 33/1 5-8-11 (92) Dr 34 was 24.6l 16th
Stratum 6/1 5-9-7 (102) Dr 18 was 32.1l 20th
Buildmeupbuttercup 5-9-0 (94) Dr 21 (105.5)
14 Sep Prem Hcap (885/88.2) 13f gd Leop 7/2 F 9-11 0.25l 2/17 off 94 – 89.6
waited with, soon raced in 10th, 9th travelling smoothly into straight, headway to challenge inside final furlong, slightly impeded and kept on well without quite matching winner from over 50yds out
18 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560/93.7) 20f gd/sf Ascot 7/1 9-1 1.25l 2/19 off 91 – 91.5
held up in rear, wide and headway over 1f out, ridden to press winner inside final furlong, no impression towards finish
Formerly with Mick Channon, but has progressed since moving across the Irish Sea towards the end of last season; won a 16f mdn hurdle on debut for new yard and proved her stamina when an impressive runner-up to The Grand Visir in the Ascot Stks in June finishing 3.5l clear of Time To Study (-5) in 3rd; followed up by easily taking a modest mdn over 12f at Galway before again finishing runner-up in a premier hcap over 13f at Leopardstown last month; runs off the same mark today but carries 11lbs less in physical weight; one of 4 stable entries as Mullins looks to double up on last year’s success.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); form run lto (28 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: course;
Verdict: largely unexposed at this sort of trip, but indications to date suggest she’s a prime contender.
Themaxwecan 3-8-12 (102) Dr 2 (104.0)
O3 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (126/91.8) 16f gd/fm Good Ev F 9-5 1l 1/6 off 98 – 97.5
awkwardly away, tracked leader after 1f, led 2f out and sent for home, ridden over 1f out, stayed on
Fast-improving colt who showed that stamina no problem when staying on to win against older horses at Goodwood last month; carries a 4lbs penalty for that, although carries 7lbs less actual weight; the big worry though would be the ground, as his best form has been on fast ground.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (39 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: big worry here the ground, but a contender.
Ranch Hand 3-8-8 (98) Dr 4 (100.5)
07 Sep Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (622/88.8) 14f sf Hayd 14/1 9-1 2l 1/12 off 94 – 90.5
close up, stayed far side, ridden to lead entering final furlong, ran on
Heavily supported on basis of winning hcap debut over 14f on sf at Haydock early last month, for which he carries a 4lbs penalty; no doubt more to come, although several negatives including no run over 16f or further, plus the poor record of horses coming from Haydock.
Plus: class (W); form run lto (35 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); distance (?); course; up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: improving 3yo, but questions as to him being a strong contender
Land Of Oz 3-8-1 (91) Dr 30 (97.8)
21 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (311/86.1) 18f gd/fm Nwmk 11/10 F 8-0 1.5l 1/8 off 87 – 80.8
keen held in towards rear, headway 6f out, led over 2f out, ridden and ran on
Typical Prescott improver having won 6 of his 8 starts this season from 14f to 18f, the latest being in the trial for this 3 weeks ago; carries a double penalty, though wouldn’t have got in without it and surely there’s more to come; however, this a much tougher ask and stable jockey remains loyal to the elder Timoshenko.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 4lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt); wide draw (?);
Verdict: can’t discount Prescott entries, but maybe this is a step too far at this stage and not the strongest contender today.
The hardest of races as usual as there are so many potential contenders, plus hat is not lost is that this is usually a race won by horse at a double digit price. Low Sun killed off the 5yo drought last year and the stable has another one of them on my shortlist this year, plus three 3yos – and there’s only been one 3yo winner this past decade. A previous win over at least 16f is almost obligatory, with just a single winner in the past 13 years not complying, or for that matter having won more than 4 hcaps. Meanwhile, only 2 had less than 3 starts in the current season. Important too, the form lto, as a top five finish is almost obligatory.
Others that made my initial shortlist, only to be later removed included Coeur De Lion, Time To Study, Great White Shark. Billy Ray and Darksideoftarnside. From my final quartet, they’re quickly joined by the 3yo pair of Ranch Hand and Land Of Oz, while to be quite honest I’m not really sure that the remaining pair are really deserving of selection. However, perhaps just for the sake of putting something up after so many hours of study, Themaxwecan and Buildmeupbuttercup are offered though far more in hope than expectation.
