Post by Old Timer on Oct 5, 2019 10:44:26 GMT
Better effort last week, though still can’t get the order right. Just the one race this week, as too many other things to deal with. Let’s hope we get things somewhere near right,
Ascot 15.20 Cl 2 Hcap 1120 (99.6) 7f sf – 18 Run (17 at best)
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 1120 (101.1) sf – 15 ran
Raising Sand 5/1 6-8-8 (97) Dr 17 by 2l from Ripp Orf 6/1 4-8-8 (97) Dr 18
Lake Volta 25/1 3-8-12 (100) Dr 1 was 3.65l 6th
Escobar 14/1 4-9-2 (102) Dr 5 was 7.15l 10th
Raydiance 10/1 3-9-0 (102) Dr 9 was 8.65l 11th
Raising Sand 7-9-10 (109) Dr 11 (105.6)
07 Sep Gr 3 Stks (357/) 8f sf Hayd 5/1 9-3 4.25l 3/6 off 109
held up in rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway entering final furlong, stayed on
27 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (934/98.2) 7f gd/sf Ascot 7/1 9-7 0.1l 1/23 off 103 – 101.6
held up towards rear in centre, good headway 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led near finish
Loves this C&D and was on the mark yet again when taking the International on gd/sf back in July; Ripp Orf (-10) was 3.1l back in 4th; has since disappointed at Haydock, but he’s not a Group horse; runs off 6lbs higher than on his last visit here, which means he’s 12lbs higher than when beating Ripp Orf at level weights in last year’s renewal; there’s 13lbs in it this time round, but must surely be somewhere thereabouts.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (28 days); down in class; up 7lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: a year older, but still very capable it seems, so a contender.
Ripp Orf 5-8-11 (96) Dr 8 (106.9)
07 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (498/96.0) 7f gd/fm Ascot 7/2 F 8-8 0.25l 2/16 off 94 – 89.9
held up behind, shaken up inside final 2f, ridden and headway when edged right inside final furlong, ran on well towards finish, just failed
Won 4 times last year but things haven’t gone his way this, which explains why he runs off 1lb lower mark than when runner-up in last year’s renewal; nevertheless, has turned things around of late and latest effort over C&D here was a season best; has been raised 2lbs for that, but is only 3lbs above his highest winning mark; however, one suspects that he would prefer a faster surface.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 3lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: likely to give his running, but perhaps will find 1 or 2 too good as has happened this year.
Bedouin’s Story 4-9-4 (103) Dr 3 (105.1)
12 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (129/95.1) 8f AW Chelm 9/2 9-11 0.75l 2/8 off 101 – 95.1
held up in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish
27 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (124/87.9) 7f sf York 11/2 9-6 2.25l 1/10 off 94 – 82.3
held up towards rear, headway 2f out, ridden over 1f out, soon led, kept on strongly
Has responded to cheekpieces the last twice with a win over 7f on sf at York and then being outstayed over 8f on the AW at Chelmsford; not sure whether this marks a turning point in his career, as he has been a little in-and-out to date; going and distance should suit, but yet to win in Cl 2.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (23 days); down 7lbs (wt); drop back in trip;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: conditions suit but yet to win at this level and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Battered 5-8-11 (96) Dr 7 (105.5)
28 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (129/93.8) 7f gd Nwmkt 10/1 9-8 0.8l 4/12 off 96 – 88.5
in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, stayed on
Useful 3yo when with Haggas winning 7f hcaps at York and Goodwood; has since moved to the Beckett yard, but missed the whole of last season, although did have a couple of AW starts after the turn of the year; off then until the middle of last month when a running-on 5/8 over 6.5 f on fast ground at Doncaster; off a fortnight but showed the benefit of the run when beaten less than 1l over 7f at Newmarket last weekend, again finishing strongly; runs off the same mark and will appreciate the stronger pace he’s likely to get; ground should suit as both his York and Goodwood successes were on sf; Se Sousa was onboard at Goodwood and interesting that he’s been recalled.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (7 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: little recent form to go on, but enough to suggest he still retains ability and a contender.
Casanova 3-8-10 (97) Dr 13 (98.4)
13 Sep Cl 3 Hcap (93/87.0) 8f gd Sand 5/2 F 9-6 1.5l 1/6 off 91 – 78.4
raced wide close up, pushed along and headway over 1f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, ran on
Fast-improving 3yo from stable that does well with this sort; debut on the AW at Wolverhampton in November; narrowly beaten in an 8.5f mdn on his turf debut at Epsom in April, but beaten for pace late on over 7f in a similar affair at Beverley in mid-May; off then until taking an 8.5f mdn at Wolverhampton at the end of August and then enjoyed another simple victory over 8f on his hcap debut at Sandown last month; raised 6lbs for Sandown, but that’s less of a problem than whether he can find the necessary improvement over a shorter trip and on ground he’s never tried before; however, he is a Frankel gelding.
Plus: form run lto (22 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); distance; course (?); up 6lbs (OR); up in class; down in trip;
Verdict: plenty of questions to answer, but fast improver from top yard and warrants consideration.
This is the final of this year’s quartet of big-field hcaps up the straight 7f at Ascot and while we have some strong past trends, sadly they don’t eliminate too many. For what it’s worth the last 13 winners were all aged 3-6yo, had all previously won in at least Cl 2 and had between 1 and 3 career hcap wins. Moreover, only 2 had won more than once in the current season.
Among those that came close but didn’t quite make the list were Escobar (better over 8f on fast ground), Quaysar (4 wins already this season and looking for a hat-trick) and Kynren (not won since 2017 and already has 3 failures off this mark). Looking at my list I feel sure that Raising Sand will be thereabouts and should make the frame, but his mark and age are against him winning it and so I pass on that score. Bedouin’s Story has improved the last twice, but yet to win above Cl 3, plus I’m not fond of the very low draws. Ripp Orf deserves to win one this season, but I fear the going may have gone against him in his continuing battle with Raising Sand. So that leaves me with Battered and Casanova, neither of which is without question. The season that Gosden has been having, plus a question as to whether 8f mightn’t be better for Battered sees me go for Casanova from Battered with Ripp Off and Raising Sands battling it out for the minor places.
Ascot 15.20 Cl 2 Hcap 1120 (99.6) 7f sf – 18 Run (17 at best)
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 1120 (101.1) sf – 15 ran
Raising Sand 5/1 6-8-8 (97) Dr 17 by 2l from Ripp Orf 6/1 4-8-8 (97) Dr 18
Lake Volta 25/1 3-8-12 (100) Dr 1 was 3.65l 6th
Escobar 14/1 4-9-2 (102) Dr 5 was 7.15l 10th
Raydiance 10/1 3-9-0 (102) Dr 9 was 8.65l 11th
Raising Sand 7-9-10 (109) Dr 11 (105.6)
07 Sep Gr 3 Stks (357/) 8f sf Hayd 5/1 9-3 4.25l 3/6 off 109
held up in rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway entering final furlong, stayed on
27 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (934/98.2) 7f gd/sf Ascot 7/1 9-7 0.1l 1/23 off 103 – 101.6
held up towards rear in centre, good headway 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led near finish
Loves this C&D and was on the mark yet again when taking the International on gd/sf back in July; Ripp Orf (-10) was 3.1l back in 4th; has since disappointed at Haydock, but he’s not a Group horse; runs off 6lbs higher than on his last visit here, which means he’s 12lbs higher than when beating Ripp Orf at level weights in last year’s renewal; there’s 13lbs in it this time round, but must surely be somewhere thereabouts.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (28 days); down in class; up 7lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: a year older, but still very capable it seems, so a contender.
Ripp Orf 5-8-11 (96) Dr 8 (106.9)
07 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (498/96.0) 7f gd/fm Ascot 7/2 F 8-8 0.25l 2/16 off 94 – 89.9
held up behind, shaken up inside final 2f, ridden and headway when edged right inside final furlong, ran on well towards finish, just failed
Won 4 times last year but things haven’t gone his way this, which explains why he runs off 1lb lower mark than when runner-up in last year’s renewal; nevertheless, has turned things around of late and latest effort over C&D here was a season best; has been raised 2lbs for that, but is only 3lbs above his highest winning mark; however, one suspects that he would prefer a faster surface.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 3lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: likely to give his running, but perhaps will find 1 or 2 too good as has happened this year.
Bedouin’s Story 4-9-4 (103) Dr 3 (105.1)
12 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (129/95.1) 8f AW Chelm 9/2 9-11 0.75l 2/8 off 101 – 95.1
held up in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish
27 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (124/87.9) 7f sf York 11/2 9-6 2.25l 1/10 off 94 – 82.3
held up towards rear, headway 2f out, ridden over 1f out, soon led, kept on strongly
Has responded to cheekpieces the last twice with a win over 7f on sf at York and then being outstayed over 8f on the AW at Chelmsford; not sure whether this marks a turning point in his career, as he has been a little in-and-out to date; going and distance should suit, but yet to win in Cl 2.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (23 days); down 7lbs (wt); drop back in trip;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: conditions suit but yet to win at this level and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Battered 5-8-11 (96) Dr 7 (105.5)
28 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (129/93.8) 7f gd Nwmkt 10/1 9-8 0.8l 4/12 off 96 – 88.5
in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, stayed on
Useful 3yo when with Haggas winning 7f hcaps at York and Goodwood; has since moved to the Beckett yard, but missed the whole of last season, although did have a couple of AW starts after the turn of the year; off then until the middle of last month when a running-on 5/8 over 6.5 f on fast ground at Doncaster; off a fortnight but showed the benefit of the run when beaten less than 1l over 7f at Newmarket last weekend, again finishing strongly; runs off the same mark and will appreciate the stronger pace he’s likely to get; ground should suit as both his York and Goodwood successes were on sf; Se Sousa was onboard at Goodwood and interesting that he’s been recalled.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (7 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: little recent form to go on, but enough to suggest he still retains ability and a contender.
Casanova 3-8-10 (97) Dr 13 (98.4)
13 Sep Cl 3 Hcap (93/87.0) 8f gd Sand 5/2 F 9-6 1.5l 1/6 off 91 – 78.4
raced wide close up, pushed along and headway over 1f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, ran on
Fast-improving 3yo from stable that does well with this sort; debut on the AW at Wolverhampton in November; narrowly beaten in an 8.5f mdn on his turf debut at Epsom in April, but beaten for pace late on over 7f in a similar affair at Beverley in mid-May; off then until taking an 8.5f mdn at Wolverhampton at the end of August and then enjoyed another simple victory over 8f on his hcap debut at Sandown last month; raised 6lbs for Sandown, but that’s less of a problem than whether he can find the necessary improvement over a shorter trip and on ground he’s never tried before; however, he is a Frankel gelding.
Plus: form run lto (22 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); distance; course (?); up 6lbs (OR); up in class; down in trip;
Verdict: plenty of questions to answer, but fast improver from top yard and warrants consideration.
This is the final of this year’s quartet of big-field hcaps up the straight 7f at Ascot and while we have some strong past trends, sadly they don’t eliminate too many. For what it’s worth the last 13 winners were all aged 3-6yo, had all previously won in at least Cl 2 and had between 1 and 3 career hcap wins. Moreover, only 2 had won more than once in the current season.
Among those that came close but didn’t quite make the list were Escobar (better over 8f on fast ground), Quaysar (4 wins already this season and looking for a hat-trick) and Kynren (not won since 2017 and already has 3 failures off this mark). Looking at my list I feel sure that Raising Sand will be thereabouts and should make the frame, but his mark and age are against him winning it and so I pass on that score. Bedouin’s Story has improved the last twice, but yet to win above Cl 3, plus I’m not fond of the very low draws. Ripp Orf deserves to win one this season, but I fear the going may have gone against him in his continuing battle with Raising Sand. So that leaves me with Battered and Casanova, neither of which is without question. The season that Gosden has been having, plus a question as to whether 8f mightn’t be better for Battered sees me go for Casanova from Battered with Ripp Off and Raising Sands battling it out for the minor places.
