Post by Old Timer on Aug 17, 2019 11:03:21 GMT
Well, managed to find a couple of winners last week, although once more reminded myself why I shouldn’t drop below Class 2! Just the one race to concentrate on really this week, as I usually ignore consolation races. The other race at Doncaster has a couple of potential flies in the ointment, so is rather a speculative effort. As for the Great St. Wilfrid, you normally need a bunch of luck to pick the winner here, and this year’s no different, so let’s hope to at least strike the frame.
Doncaster 14.50 Cl 2 Hcap 124 (90.5) 7f gd/sf – 11 Run (10 at best)
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 124 (90.1) gd/fm – 7 ran
Breanski 7/2 4-8-7 (85) Dr 9 by 0.75l from Normandy Barriere 11/4 F 6-9-0 (95) Dr 4
Motafaawit 3-9-7 (103) Dr 8 (133.0)
11 Jul List Stks (284/) 8f gd/fm Nwmkt 10/1 9-3 5l 5/6 off 103 –
held up towards rear, ridden and headway over 2f out, weakened last 100 yards
Won a pair of 3yo-hcaps sy Beverley and Ascot on his return in the spring, but has disappointed the last twice upped to 8f; didn’t appear to get the trip in listed company at Newmarket lto, so drop back in trip interesting; noted it was sf ground when he won his Cl 2 at Ascot off a 6lbs lower mark in May.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); recent outing (37 days);
Minus: going; course (?); up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: the drop back in trip makes him a potential contender, as he should go on the ground.
Double Kodiac 3-8-3 (85) Dr 11
18 Apr Cl 3 3yo-Stks (97/) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 25/1 9-6 1.25l 2/7 off 85 –
led centre trio and close 3rd overall, 2nd over 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, never going pace to challenge
Won over 6f on gd/sf on debut in France, but showed little on 3 subsequent outings and gelded between seasons; lot better effort on return in April, but has not been seen since; however, stable in good form and market seems keen on him.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); form run lto; down 17lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); 121-day break; hcap debut;
Verdict: seems on a fair mark for hcap debut, but returning from a long break and a contender with questions.
That Is The Spirit 8-8-9 (86) Dr 3 (130.6)
26 Jul Cl 4 Hcap (65/81.3) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 7/1 10-0 0.1l 2/6 off 84 – 130.6
tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, headed inside final furlong, rallied close home
No spring chicken but did win in listed class in his youth and has looked to be thereabouts since moving to the Appleby yard winning a Cl 3 at Chelmsford in early June and not beaten far at Newmkt lto; no surprise were he to go well again.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (22 days); down 19lbs (wt);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: may be thereabouts, but surely likely to be beaten by a younger horse or two.
Finoah 3-8-11 (93) Dr 2 (122.7)
10 Aug Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (129/85.1) 7f hv Hayd 11/2 8-13 0.75l 1/8 off 89 – 122.6
made all, ridden and hard pressed over 1f out, kept on gamely
Won on sf at Redcar as a 2yo and both wins this season have come on hv ground at Haydock; raised 4lbs for latest effort there last weekend, although will actually carry 5lbs less as is rising in class; nevertheless, one wonders if the ground is soft enough.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (7 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: going; course (?); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: seems to need demanding conditions and unlikely to get those today, so not a strong contender.
Although last year’s winner Breanski re-opposes on 1lb lower mark he doesn’t look in the same form this year and is passed over. The race has a couple of potential ‘dark horses’ in Double Kodiac and Nordic Fire, O’Meara’s French import from the Fabre stable. Goodness knows where you put them. The market seems to believe that Double Kodiac is home and hosed, but I’m not so sure and would be prepared to take a chance on Motafaawit returning to 7f, while That Is The Spirit could run on into third.
Ripon 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 467 (96.1) 6f gd/sf – 20 Run
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 467 (97.3) gd – 20 ran
Gunmetal 10/1 5-9-0 (97) Dr 19 by 2.75l from Dakota Gold 33/1 4-8-9 (92) Dr 7
Ice Age 20/1 5-9-9 (106) Dr 10 was 4.27l 4th
Reputation 28/1 5-8-9 (92) Dr 5 was 6.22l 9th
Dakota Gold 5-9-7 (99) Dr 15 (123.8)
27 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (311/91.9) 6f sf York 10/1 9-2 0.5l 1/15 off 96 – 123.8
made all, ridden over 1f out, hard pressed inside final furlong, held on gamely close home
Runs off a 4lbs higher mark than when runner-up to Gunmetal (+5) in last year’s renewal and had to be dropped a further 1lb in the weights before going on to win over 5f at Haydock at the end of September; just the two starts this season, likely needing his return at Newcastle at the end of June; dropped a further 1lb at York lto, looked far more at home over returned to 6f and held on gamely to win from Muscika (-8) with Staxton (+4) and Gulliver (+4) bringing up the rear; raised 3lbs for that and carries 5lbs more physical weight, meeting M on 2lbs worse terms; also meets Gunmetal on 3lbs worse terms than last August, plus drawn on the high side this year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); up 5lbs (wt); draw (?);
Verdict: fit and in form, but York win complicates his chances here which would require a new career best.
Richenza 4-9-4 (96) Dr 9 (128.7)
Carried 10-0 to victory in a small-field Cl 3 hcap at Goodwood in early June and then finished 3/6 in listed class at Salisbury mid-month; not seen since; moreover, nothing as yet to suggest that he’s a strong contender to win a hcap of this quality.
Plus: class (F+); distance; form run lto (62 days);
Minus: class; going; up 3lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: lacks the credentials to suggest he can win this;
Gunmetal 6-9-9 (101) Dr 3 (129.8)
03 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (1556/98.6) 6f gd/fm Good 14/1 9-6 8.05l 15/27 off 103 – 114.4
raced centre to near side, held up tracking leaders, weakened final furlong
Runs off a 4lbs higher mark and carries 9lbs more actual weight than when making all on the ‘wrong side’ to take last year’s renewal from Dakota Gold (-5); raised 7lbs for that he’s still working his mark down to a more competitive level, although put in reasonable efforts in both the Wokingham and the Stewards’ Cup despite being drawn in the wrong group on each occasion.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (14 days); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: up 3lbs (wt);
Verdict: still 4lbs above last year’s career best and might need handicapper’s help before he’s a strong contender again.
Summerghand 5-9-8 (100) Dr 5 (128.5)
03 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (1556/98.6) 6f gd/fm Good 12/1 9-3 3.75 4/27 off 100 – 122.1
raced far side, chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong
Won 5 of his 14 starts last season, the best a Cl 3 at Newmarket carrying 9-12 off 95; hasn’t added to his tally this term, but has run well on a number of occasions including both the Wokingham and the Stewards’ Cup, finishing in front of Gunmetal on both occasions.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: going (?); up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: is a good weight carrier and has won on sf, so looks to be a contender;
Lahore 5-9-1 (93) Dr 19 (123.9)
05 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (93/86.0) 6f gd/sf Rip 6/1 9-8 1l 1/8 off 90 – 123.9
dwelt in touch, wide and headway over 1f out, ridden to lead just inside final furlong, stayed on
Won 3 of his 5 starts as a 2yo, but failed to impress in higher class in either start as a 3yo and moved on from Cox to present yard before the start of this season; finished last on first 2 starts but improved effort at Redcar at the end of July before a career best effort over C&D here lto when he got the better of Muscika (+2); raised 3lbs for that but carries 7lbs less physical weight as he goes back up in class; moreover, he’s also 6lbs worse off with Muscika.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (12 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up 3lbs (OR); up in class; draw (?);
Verdict: looks to be improving, but unproven in this class and not the strongest contender.
Muscika 4-9-0 (92) Dr 6 (123.4)
05 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (93/86.0) 6f gd/sf Rip 13/8 F 9-10 1l 2/8 off 92 – 123.4
led, ridden and headed just inside final furlong, rallied close home
27 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (311/91.9) 6f sf York 20/1 8-11 0.5l 2/15 off 91 – 117.5
mid-division, headway over 1f out, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, kept on towards finish
Won at Thirsk in May but has developed a case of seconditis since, finishing runner-up in 4 of his last 5 starts including to Dakota Gold (+8) at York and Lahore (-2) when dropped in class over C&D here lto; yet to win at this level but is 2lbs better off with Dakota Gold and 6lbs better off with Lahore; while the latter is improving, he should reverse that running on today’s terms, although likely will have more trouble with Dakota Gold.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (12 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class; yet to win in Cl 2;
Verdict: has been in good form of late, but perhaps lacks the class to win at this level and not the strongest contender.
Another of those big-field sprints and as usual there are plenty of contenders. Among those that didn’t make the shortlist but who may run well are Lake Volta, Gulliver and Belated Breath, but you can’t include them all. Those from my shortlist joining them on the sidelines include Richenza who among other things is coming back from a break and has no hcap experience at this level, plus the improving Lahore who beat Muscika lto but is no certainty to confirm the form on today’s terms.
That leaves me with a quartet that includes the first two home last year, Gunmetal and Dakota Gold, plus Summerghand and Muscika. While none of the past 13 winners has carried more than 9-6, there have generally only been 3 or 4 horses in that group; this year we’ve got almost half the field, so it would be no surprise if a higher-weighted horse won. I’m pretty certain that both Gunmetal and Dakota Gold have been targeted at this, although with DG winning at York he is worse off with G, and also Muscika, plus he’s only had the 2 races this term. Summerghand, like Muscika, has yet to win at this level, but the pair both have good form in Cl 2 this season and can’t be ignored. While I expect Gunmetal to make the frame he may need dropping a lb or two, and with Dakota Gold needing to producing another career best, I’m inclined to go with Muscika from Summerghand with Gunmetal again edging out Dakota Gold, but this time for the minor places.
Doncaster 14.50 Cl 2 Hcap 124 (90.5) 7f gd/sf – 11 Run (10 at best)
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 124 (90.1) gd/fm – 7 ran
Breanski 7/2 4-8-7 (85) Dr 9 by 0.75l from Normandy Barriere 11/4 F 6-9-0 (95) Dr 4
Motafaawit 3-9-7 (103) Dr 8 (133.0)
11 Jul List Stks (284/) 8f gd/fm Nwmkt 10/1 9-3 5l 5/6 off 103 –
held up towards rear, ridden and headway over 2f out, weakened last 100 yards
Won a pair of 3yo-hcaps sy Beverley and Ascot on his return in the spring, but has disappointed the last twice upped to 8f; didn’t appear to get the trip in listed company at Newmarket lto, so drop back in trip interesting; noted it was sf ground when he won his Cl 2 at Ascot off a 6lbs lower mark in May.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); recent outing (37 days);
Minus: going; course (?); up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: the drop back in trip makes him a potential contender, as he should go on the ground.
Double Kodiac 3-8-3 (85) Dr 11
18 Apr Cl 3 3yo-Stks (97/) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 25/1 9-6 1.25l 2/7 off 85 –
led centre trio and close 3rd overall, 2nd over 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, never going pace to challenge
Won over 6f on gd/sf on debut in France, but showed little on 3 subsequent outings and gelded between seasons; lot better effort on return in April, but has not been seen since; however, stable in good form and market seems keen on him.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); form run lto; down 17lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); 121-day break; hcap debut;
Verdict: seems on a fair mark for hcap debut, but returning from a long break and a contender with questions.
That Is The Spirit 8-8-9 (86) Dr 3 (130.6)
26 Jul Cl 4 Hcap (65/81.3) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 7/1 10-0 0.1l 2/6 off 84 – 130.6
tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, headed inside final furlong, rallied close home
No spring chicken but did win in listed class in his youth and has looked to be thereabouts since moving to the Appleby yard winning a Cl 3 at Chelmsford in early June and not beaten far at Newmkt lto; no surprise were he to go well again.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (22 days); down 19lbs (wt);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: may be thereabouts, but surely likely to be beaten by a younger horse or two.
Finoah 3-8-11 (93) Dr 2 (122.7)
10 Aug Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (129/85.1) 7f hv Hayd 11/2 8-13 0.75l 1/8 off 89 – 122.6
made all, ridden and hard pressed over 1f out, kept on gamely
Won on sf at Redcar as a 2yo and both wins this season have come on hv ground at Haydock; raised 4lbs for latest effort there last weekend, although will actually carry 5lbs less as is rising in class; nevertheless, one wonders if the ground is soft enough.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (7 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: going; course (?); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: seems to need demanding conditions and unlikely to get those today, so not a strong contender.
Although last year’s winner Breanski re-opposes on 1lb lower mark he doesn’t look in the same form this year and is passed over. The race has a couple of potential ‘dark horses’ in Double Kodiac and Nordic Fire, O’Meara’s French import from the Fabre stable. Goodness knows where you put them. The market seems to believe that Double Kodiac is home and hosed, but I’m not so sure and would be prepared to take a chance on Motafaawit returning to 7f, while That Is The Spirit could run on into third.
Ripon 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 467 (96.1) 6f gd/sf – 20 Run
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 467 (97.3) gd – 20 ran
Gunmetal 10/1 5-9-0 (97) Dr 19 by 2.75l from Dakota Gold 33/1 4-8-9 (92) Dr 7
Ice Age 20/1 5-9-9 (106) Dr 10 was 4.27l 4th
Reputation 28/1 5-8-9 (92) Dr 5 was 6.22l 9th
Dakota Gold 5-9-7 (99) Dr 15 (123.8)
27 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (311/91.9) 6f sf York 10/1 9-2 0.5l 1/15 off 96 – 123.8
made all, ridden over 1f out, hard pressed inside final furlong, held on gamely close home
Runs off a 4lbs higher mark than when runner-up to Gunmetal (+5) in last year’s renewal and had to be dropped a further 1lb in the weights before going on to win over 5f at Haydock at the end of September; just the two starts this season, likely needing his return at Newcastle at the end of June; dropped a further 1lb at York lto, looked far more at home over returned to 6f and held on gamely to win from Muscika (-8) with Staxton (+4) and Gulliver (+4) bringing up the rear; raised 3lbs for that and carries 5lbs more physical weight, meeting M on 2lbs worse terms; also meets Gunmetal on 3lbs worse terms than last August, plus drawn on the high side this year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); up 5lbs (wt); draw (?);
Verdict: fit and in form, but York win complicates his chances here which would require a new career best.
Richenza 4-9-4 (96) Dr 9 (128.7)
Carried 10-0 to victory in a small-field Cl 3 hcap at Goodwood in early June and then finished 3/6 in listed class at Salisbury mid-month; not seen since; moreover, nothing as yet to suggest that he’s a strong contender to win a hcap of this quality.
Plus: class (F+); distance; form run lto (62 days);
Minus: class; going; up 3lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: lacks the credentials to suggest he can win this;
Gunmetal 6-9-9 (101) Dr 3 (129.8)
03 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (1556/98.6) 6f gd/fm Good 14/1 9-6 8.05l 15/27 off 103 – 114.4
raced centre to near side, held up tracking leaders, weakened final furlong
Runs off a 4lbs higher mark and carries 9lbs more actual weight than when making all on the ‘wrong side’ to take last year’s renewal from Dakota Gold (-5); raised 7lbs for that he’s still working his mark down to a more competitive level, although put in reasonable efforts in both the Wokingham and the Stewards’ Cup despite being drawn in the wrong group on each occasion.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (14 days); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: up 3lbs (wt);
Verdict: still 4lbs above last year’s career best and might need handicapper’s help before he’s a strong contender again.
Summerghand 5-9-8 (100) Dr 5 (128.5)
03 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (1556/98.6) 6f gd/fm Good 12/1 9-3 3.75 4/27 off 100 – 122.1
raced far side, chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong
Won 5 of his 14 starts last season, the best a Cl 3 at Newmarket carrying 9-12 off 95; hasn’t added to his tally this term, but has run well on a number of occasions including both the Wokingham and the Stewards’ Cup, finishing in front of Gunmetal on both occasions.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: going (?); up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: is a good weight carrier and has won on sf, so looks to be a contender;
Lahore 5-9-1 (93) Dr 19 (123.9)
05 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (93/86.0) 6f gd/sf Rip 6/1 9-8 1l 1/8 off 90 – 123.9
dwelt in touch, wide and headway over 1f out, ridden to lead just inside final furlong, stayed on
Won 3 of his 5 starts as a 2yo, but failed to impress in higher class in either start as a 3yo and moved on from Cox to present yard before the start of this season; finished last on first 2 starts but improved effort at Redcar at the end of July before a career best effort over C&D here lto when he got the better of Muscika (+2); raised 3lbs for that but carries 7lbs less physical weight as he goes back up in class; moreover, he’s also 6lbs worse off with Muscika.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (12 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up 3lbs (OR); up in class; draw (?);
Verdict: looks to be improving, but unproven in this class and not the strongest contender.
Muscika 4-9-0 (92) Dr 6 (123.4)
05 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (93/86.0) 6f gd/sf Rip 13/8 F 9-10 1l 2/8 off 92 – 123.4
led, ridden and headed just inside final furlong, rallied close home
27 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (311/91.9) 6f sf York 20/1 8-11 0.5l 2/15 off 91 – 117.5
mid-division, headway over 1f out, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, kept on towards finish
Won at Thirsk in May but has developed a case of seconditis since, finishing runner-up in 4 of his last 5 starts including to Dakota Gold (+8) at York and Lahore (-2) when dropped in class over C&D here lto; yet to win at this level but is 2lbs better off with Dakota Gold and 6lbs better off with Lahore; while the latter is improving, he should reverse that running on today’s terms, although likely will have more trouble with Dakota Gold.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (12 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class; yet to win in Cl 2;
Verdict: has been in good form of late, but perhaps lacks the class to win at this level and not the strongest contender.
Another of those big-field sprints and as usual there are plenty of contenders. Among those that didn’t make the shortlist but who may run well are Lake Volta, Gulliver and Belated Breath, but you can’t include them all. Those from my shortlist joining them on the sidelines include Richenza who among other things is coming back from a break and has no hcap experience at this level, plus the improving Lahore who beat Muscika lto but is no certainty to confirm the form on today’s terms.
That leaves me with a quartet that includes the first two home last year, Gunmetal and Dakota Gold, plus Summerghand and Muscika. While none of the past 13 winners has carried more than 9-6, there have generally only been 3 or 4 horses in that group; this year we’ve got almost half the field, so it would be no surprise if a higher-weighted horse won. I’m pretty certain that both Gunmetal and Dakota Gold have been targeted at this, although with DG winning at York he is worse off with G, and also Muscika, plus he’s only had the 2 races this term. Summerghand, like Muscika, has yet to win at this level, but the pair both have good form in Cl 2 this season and can’t be ignored. While I expect Gunmetal to make the frame he may need dropping a lb or two, and with Dakota Gold needing to producing another career best, I’m inclined to go with Muscika from Summerghand with Gunmetal again edging out Dakota Gold, but this time for the minor places.
