Post by Old Timer on Jun 15, 2019 11:22:37 GMT
Fortunately I’ve not had chance to look at things since Monday and the way things have gone this past couple of months, perhaps I had better stick to looking for short priced favourites on a Monday. Today is Saturday though, indeed the last Saturday before the annual blood-letting exercise called Royal Ascot arrives. How many losers I’ll find time to pick at Ascot I don’t know yet, but to get my hand in I’ve looked at a couple of tougher handicaps today. Were it not Saturday I wouldn’t have bothered as I will be totally amazed if one even makes the frame let alone wins!
York 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 349 (94.8) 7f sf – 20 Run
Last year – 249 (95.7) gd/fm – 12 ran
Above The Rest 7/1 7-10-0 (104) Dr 11 by 1.25l from Get Knotted 7/1 6-9-5 (85) Dr 8
Golden Apollo 5/1 4-9-6 (86) Dr 9 was 3.85l 5th
Kaeso 5-9-4 (93) Dr 18
9/1* Cons 6* AB 78 Lto 280* SF 99* Rat 107* sf 1/0/2
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (280/94.2) 7.5f gd Chest 3/1 8-7 0.5l 1/10 off 90 – 97*
keen early in touch, ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (654/97.3) 7f gd/sf Ascot 14/1 8-1 0.5l 3/26 off 87 – 95
with leader, ridden over 1f out, led briefly entering final furlong, chased winner after and ran on, lost 2nd post
Excellent 7/21 strike rate winning at 6f to 7.5f on sf to gd/fm and carrying up to 9-6 in physical weight; has improved with every run this season, needing the outing over 8.5f at Nottingham in early April, but improving to be runner-up in an 87/85.6 over 8f at Ripon later in the month carrying 9-4 off 87; exceeded expectations in the Victoria Cup in finishing a close 3rd carrying 8-1 off 87; raised 3lbs for that but was a ready winner when dropped in class over 7.5f at Chester to win in a another career best carrying 8-7 off 90 with Gabrial (+10) 1l back in 3rd; has been raised a further 3lbs for that as he moves to a nominally higher class race, although he is tasked with carrying 11lbs more physical weight, which raises a question.
Lord Oberon 4-9-6 (95) Dr 14
9/1* Cons 11# AB 67 Lto 104 SF 67 Rat 108 sf 1/0/2
08 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (104/91.5) 6f hv Hayd 11/2 9-6 2.25l 2/15 off 94 – 98
In touch towards centre, headway over 2f out, ridden to chase leader over 1f out, stayed on one pace final furlong
Progressed as a handicapper last season culminating in putting up a career best when winning a 124 (93.4) over 7f on sf on final start at Doncaster on the final Saturday in November, carrying 8-10 off 90; no show on his return over 7f at Haydock in April, but much better effort over 6f in the mud there last Saturday carrying 9-6 off 94; raised 1lb for that, but carries the same actually weight over 1f further against stronger opposition; needs to show further improvement to be a major force today.
Hyperfocus 5-9-2 (91) Dr 10
12/1* Cons 9* AB 65 Lto 93 SF 92 Rat 110* sf 1/1/2
05 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (93/90.2) 6f gd/sf Rip 7/2 jt F 9-2 0.05l 1/11 off 90 – 98
led far side, ridden over 1f out, ran on and overall leader close home
18 May Cl 3 Hcap (97/86.5) 6f gd Thir 16/1 9-1 0.1l 2/14 off 88 – 96
tracked leaders in far side group, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on, just held
Disappointed as a 4yo when with Hugo Palmer, but moved to the Easterby yard at the end of April; looked to need his return a few days later over 7f at Newcastle, but showed much promise when just failing to catch Muscika over 6f at Thirsk in mid-May; raised 2lbd for that and confirmed the improvement when proving too much for stronger opposition over 6f at Ripon 10 days ago, carrying 9-2 off 90; has only been raised 1lb for that and while he’s up in both class and distance, carries the same physical weight; conditions would appear to suit and while he has yet to win over 7f, gave every indication that he stays the trip when runner-up at Chelmsford on his final start for Palmer last October.
Aljady 4-9-6 (95) Dr 14
6/1* Cons 11# AB 59 Lto 187* SF 101* Rat 108 sf 1/0/1
15 May Cl 2 Hcap (187/95.0) 6f gd/fm York 8/1 8-12 3.75l 3/21 off 95 – 96
towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong
Won his first three starts and while he’s failed to add to that tally in his three subsequent starts, he’s not been beaten more than 4l either; very promising return over 6f here last month with the suggestion being that he’ll appreciate the return to 7f, although more valuable, today’s race is against similar opposition, although he does carry 8lbs more physical weight, which is 2lbs more than he’s ever carried in handicap company; nevertheless, likely to improve further and worthy of consideration.
Hayadh 6-9-2 (91) Dr 15
16/1 Cons 6* AB 115 Lto 311* SF 97 Rat 109* sf 0/1/3
16 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/94.9) 8f gd/fm York 14/1 9-0 1.75l 3/14 off 91 – 97
took keen hold, chased leaders, went 3rd inside final furlong, kept on
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (249/89.7) 8f gd Thir 14/1 8-12 0.75l 1/16 off 88 – 97
chased leaders, every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well
Winner over 7f at Musselburgh in mid-October, he showed his liking for the Scottish track with a pair of placed efforts over the C&D on his return in April; however, it was over 8f that he was successful in the Thirsk Hunt Cup carrying 8-12 off 88 and he has since finished 3rd carrying 9-0 off 91 in an 8f hcap here of similar class to today; would possibly prefer better ground and might now be better over 8f, but not without hopes towards the bottom of the handicap.
Typical York handicap in that there are numerous others that could be fancied, particularly if the going remains soft or heavier – Firmament, Aces and Get Knotted are among others with form under such conditions. The softer ground may enable Get Knotted to reverse last year’s running with Above The Rest, although the latter starts off a 2lbs lower mark this year, though has to give GN 10lbs rather than 9lbs. Others towards the front of the betting and worthy of note include Great Prospector and Love Dreams.
Weight is a major factor under such conditions, of course, and from my shortlist I fear that Kaeso may find today’s task beyond him, while further down the handicap I fear Haydadh may now be better over 8f. Of my remaining trio, all are running over a furlong further than their last outing, although Lord Oberon has won at today’s trip. However, both Hyperfocus and Aljady have the potential to improve over today’s trip and thus I’d go with Hyperfocus from Aljady and Lord Oberon. However, these are just the wildest of guesses and frankly I’ll be amazed if any of them make the frame.
Sandown 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 247 (92.6) 8f sf – 12 Run
3yo = 11lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 311 (91.5) gd/fm – 11 ran
Via Serendipity 4/1 4-9-6 (90) Dr 9 by 1.5l from Manson 20/1 5-9-8 (92) Dr 5
Baltic Baron 4-10-0 (95) Dr 9
9/2* Cons 8* AB 133* Lto 163 SF 75 Rat 97 sf 0/1/1
05 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (162/96.2) 8.5f gd Nott 7/1 9-2 0.75l 2/5 off 96 – 97
tracked leader, driven and outpaced when short of room and hampered 2f out, switched outside 1f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, not quite reach winner
Mdn winner at 8f as a 3yo in France when with Fabre and not disgraced on UK debut when runner-up at Nottingham with Masham Star (0) 0.5l back in third; been dropped a lb since but being asked to carry 12lbs more today than he’s ever carried and likely that’s beyond him.
Greenside 8-10-0 (95) Dr 6
11/2* Cons 8* AB 101* Lto 311* SF 79 Rat 99 sf 1/0/3
Winner of the 2017 renewal carrying 9-11 off 94, but only carried 9-4 off 90 when beating Masham Star (+3) by 1.25l in a 72/87.0 at Windsor in early May; plus is being asked to carry a stone more than when 5l 3/14 to Gossiping in a 322/91.6 at Epsom at the end of May; looks a tough ask!
Sawwaah 4-9-12 (93) Dr 4
11/2* Cons 7* AB 97 Lto 162 SF 77 Rat 100* sf 0/1/1
18 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (162/93.6) 8f gd/fm Nwmk 9/4 F 9-2 1.25l 3/8 off 93 – 98*
led 1f, tracked leader, led again 2f out, ridden and headed 150yards out, no extra in 3rd towards finish
Won 2 of his 5 starts as a 3yo, over 8f on gd at Newmarket and only just denied on sf on his final start there in the autumn carrying 9-5 off 92; promising return in April, again at Newmarket, and runs off the same mark today, albeit carrying 10lbs more actual weight; weight again a factor, but could possibly be a contender today.
Thrave 4-9-11 (92) Dr 5
6/1* Cons 11# AB 52 Lto 249* SF 72 Rat 101* sf 0/0/1
18 May Cl 2 Hcap (249/95.4) 8f gd Newb 4/1 8-7 0.1 2/14 off 91 – 98*
tracked leaders, led 2f out, soon ridden, headed narrowly over 1fout, kept on and every chance final furlong, just held
18 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (162/93.6) 8f gd/fm Nwmkt 11/2 9-0 1.5l 4/8 off 91 – 95
tracked leaders on far rail, switched left over 2f out, went 2nd inside final 2f, every chance inside final furlong, no extra in 4th towards finish
Mdn winner at Newmarket on second start as a 2yo, but showed little in his two starts at 3yo and was gelded between seasons; has run with far more promise in his last two starts at Newmarket and Newbury and is looking ready to win; once again though weight is the problem as he’s being asked to carry 11lbs more than he has before!
Loch Ness Monster 3-8-10 (88) Dr 2
9/1 Cons 15 AB 39 Lto 498* SF 91* Rat 98 sf 0/0
25 May Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (498/91.7) 8f gd/fm Hayd 12/1 8-0 13l 11/14 off 89 – 68
towards rear, ridden over 2f out, never a factor
11 May Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (97/85.5) 8f gd/sf Hayd 9/2 9-4 0.1l 2/6 off 87 – 91
held up in touch in rear, headway on outside 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on to press winner inside final furlong, just held
Winner over 6f at Nottingham on second start last July, but finished in his next two starts on the autumn and was gelded between seasons; there or thereabouts in each of his first three starts this term before putting in a shocker at Haydock lto; consistent before that and looks well weighted with his wfa allowance if ignoring it; a speculative contender.
I have a lot of problems here with the weights allotted as while some horses can function carrying 9-7 or more, many cannot, and here we have all but two squashed into the narrow space between 9-10 and 10-0. Of the horses in that range the only one coming to mind that has actually won with such a weight is Masham Star, but he is such an unpredictable character when it comes to actually winning; Just my luck for him to go in today!
Again a race to give a wide berth to, although Loch Ness Monster at the foot of the handicap might be worth a punt, while Sawwaah and Thrave might have chance too.
York 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 349 (94.8) 7f sf – 20 Run
Last year – 249 (95.7) gd/fm – 12 ran
Above The Rest 7/1 7-10-0 (104) Dr 11 by 1.25l from Get Knotted 7/1 6-9-5 (85) Dr 8
Golden Apollo 5/1 4-9-6 (86) Dr 9 was 3.85l 5th
Kaeso 5-9-4 (93) Dr 18
9/1* Cons 6* AB 78 Lto 280* SF 99* Rat 107* sf 1/0/2
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (280/94.2) 7.5f gd Chest 3/1 8-7 0.5l 1/10 off 90 – 97*
keen early in touch, ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (654/97.3) 7f gd/sf Ascot 14/1 8-1 0.5l 3/26 off 87 – 95
with leader, ridden over 1f out, led briefly entering final furlong, chased winner after and ran on, lost 2nd post
Excellent 7/21 strike rate winning at 6f to 7.5f on sf to gd/fm and carrying up to 9-6 in physical weight; has improved with every run this season, needing the outing over 8.5f at Nottingham in early April, but improving to be runner-up in an 87/85.6 over 8f at Ripon later in the month carrying 9-4 off 87; exceeded expectations in the Victoria Cup in finishing a close 3rd carrying 8-1 off 87; raised 3lbs for that but was a ready winner when dropped in class over 7.5f at Chester to win in a another career best carrying 8-7 off 90 with Gabrial (+10) 1l back in 3rd; has been raised a further 3lbs for that as he moves to a nominally higher class race, although he is tasked with carrying 11lbs more physical weight, which raises a question.
Lord Oberon 4-9-6 (95) Dr 14
9/1* Cons 11# AB 67 Lto 104 SF 67 Rat 108 sf 1/0/2
08 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (104/91.5) 6f hv Hayd 11/2 9-6 2.25l 2/15 off 94 – 98
In touch towards centre, headway over 2f out, ridden to chase leader over 1f out, stayed on one pace final furlong
Progressed as a handicapper last season culminating in putting up a career best when winning a 124 (93.4) over 7f on sf on final start at Doncaster on the final Saturday in November, carrying 8-10 off 90; no show on his return over 7f at Haydock in April, but much better effort over 6f in the mud there last Saturday carrying 9-6 off 94; raised 1lb for that, but carries the same actually weight over 1f further against stronger opposition; needs to show further improvement to be a major force today.
Hyperfocus 5-9-2 (91) Dr 10
12/1* Cons 9* AB 65 Lto 93 SF 92 Rat 110* sf 1/1/2
05 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (93/90.2) 6f gd/sf Rip 7/2 jt F 9-2 0.05l 1/11 off 90 – 98
led far side, ridden over 1f out, ran on and overall leader close home
18 May Cl 3 Hcap (97/86.5) 6f gd Thir 16/1 9-1 0.1l 2/14 off 88 – 96
tracked leaders in far side group, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on, just held
Disappointed as a 4yo when with Hugo Palmer, but moved to the Easterby yard at the end of April; looked to need his return a few days later over 7f at Newcastle, but showed much promise when just failing to catch Muscika over 6f at Thirsk in mid-May; raised 2lbd for that and confirmed the improvement when proving too much for stronger opposition over 6f at Ripon 10 days ago, carrying 9-2 off 90; has only been raised 1lb for that and while he’s up in both class and distance, carries the same physical weight; conditions would appear to suit and while he has yet to win over 7f, gave every indication that he stays the trip when runner-up at Chelmsford on his final start for Palmer last October.
Aljady 4-9-6 (95) Dr 14
6/1* Cons 11# AB 59 Lto 187* SF 101* Rat 108 sf 1/0/1
15 May Cl 2 Hcap (187/95.0) 6f gd/fm York 8/1 8-12 3.75l 3/21 off 95 – 96
towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong
Won his first three starts and while he’s failed to add to that tally in his three subsequent starts, he’s not been beaten more than 4l either; very promising return over 6f here last month with the suggestion being that he’ll appreciate the return to 7f, although more valuable, today’s race is against similar opposition, although he does carry 8lbs more physical weight, which is 2lbs more than he’s ever carried in handicap company; nevertheless, likely to improve further and worthy of consideration.
Hayadh 6-9-2 (91) Dr 15
16/1 Cons 6* AB 115 Lto 311* SF 97 Rat 109* sf 0/1/3
16 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/94.9) 8f gd/fm York 14/1 9-0 1.75l 3/14 off 91 – 97
took keen hold, chased leaders, went 3rd inside final furlong, kept on
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (249/89.7) 8f gd Thir 14/1 8-12 0.75l 1/16 off 88 – 97
chased leaders, every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well
Winner over 7f at Musselburgh in mid-October, he showed his liking for the Scottish track with a pair of placed efforts over the C&D on his return in April; however, it was over 8f that he was successful in the Thirsk Hunt Cup carrying 8-12 off 88 and he has since finished 3rd carrying 9-0 off 91 in an 8f hcap here of similar class to today; would possibly prefer better ground and might now be better over 8f, but not without hopes towards the bottom of the handicap.
Typical York handicap in that there are numerous others that could be fancied, particularly if the going remains soft or heavier – Firmament, Aces and Get Knotted are among others with form under such conditions. The softer ground may enable Get Knotted to reverse last year’s running with Above The Rest, although the latter starts off a 2lbs lower mark this year, though has to give GN 10lbs rather than 9lbs. Others towards the front of the betting and worthy of note include Great Prospector and Love Dreams.
Weight is a major factor under such conditions, of course, and from my shortlist I fear that Kaeso may find today’s task beyond him, while further down the handicap I fear Haydadh may now be better over 8f. Of my remaining trio, all are running over a furlong further than their last outing, although Lord Oberon has won at today’s trip. However, both Hyperfocus and Aljady have the potential to improve over today’s trip and thus I’d go with Hyperfocus from Aljady and Lord Oberon. However, these are just the wildest of guesses and frankly I’ll be amazed if any of them make the frame.
Sandown 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 247 (92.6) 8f sf – 12 Run
3yo = 11lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 311 (91.5) gd/fm – 11 ran
Via Serendipity 4/1 4-9-6 (90) Dr 9 by 1.5l from Manson 20/1 5-9-8 (92) Dr 5
Baltic Baron 4-10-0 (95) Dr 9
9/2* Cons 8* AB 133* Lto 163 SF 75 Rat 97 sf 0/1/1
05 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (162/96.2) 8.5f gd Nott 7/1 9-2 0.75l 2/5 off 96 – 97
tracked leader, driven and outpaced when short of room and hampered 2f out, switched outside 1f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, not quite reach winner
Mdn winner at 8f as a 3yo in France when with Fabre and not disgraced on UK debut when runner-up at Nottingham with Masham Star (0) 0.5l back in third; been dropped a lb since but being asked to carry 12lbs more today than he’s ever carried and likely that’s beyond him.
Greenside 8-10-0 (95) Dr 6
11/2* Cons 8* AB 101* Lto 311* SF 79 Rat 99 sf 1/0/3
Winner of the 2017 renewal carrying 9-11 off 94, but only carried 9-4 off 90 when beating Masham Star (+3) by 1.25l in a 72/87.0 at Windsor in early May; plus is being asked to carry a stone more than when 5l 3/14 to Gossiping in a 322/91.6 at Epsom at the end of May; looks a tough ask!
Sawwaah 4-9-12 (93) Dr 4
11/2* Cons 7* AB 97 Lto 162 SF 77 Rat 100* sf 0/1/1
18 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (162/93.6) 8f gd/fm Nwmk 9/4 F 9-2 1.25l 3/8 off 93 – 98*
led 1f, tracked leader, led again 2f out, ridden and headed 150yards out, no extra in 3rd towards finish
Won 2 of his 5 starts as a 3yo, over 8f on gd at Newmarket and only just denied on sf on his final start there in the autumn carrying 9-5 off 92; promising return in April, again at Newmarket, and runs off the same mark today, albeit carrying 10lbs more actual weight; weight again a factor, but could possibly be a contender today.
Thrave 4-9-11 (92) Dr 5
6/1* Cons 11# AB 52 Lto 249* SF 72 Rat 101* sf 0/0/1
18 May Cl 2 Hcap (249/95.4) 8f gd Newb 4/1 8-7 0.1 2/14 off 91 – 98*
tracked leaders, led 2f out, soon ridden, headed narrowly over 1fout, kept on and every chance final furlong, just held
18 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (162/93.6) 8f gd/fm Nwmkt 11/2 9-0 1.5l 4/8 off 91 – 95
tracked leaders on far rail, switched left over 2f out, went 2nd inside final 2f, every chance inside final furlong, no extra in 4th towards finish
Mdn winner at Newmarket on second start as a 2yo, but showed little in his two starts at 3yo and was gelded between seasons; has run with far more promise in his last two starts at Newmarket and Newbury and is looking ready to win; once again though weight is the problem as he’s being asked to carry 11lbs more than he has before!
Loch Ness Monster 3-8-10 (88) Dr 2
9/1 Cons 15 AB 39 Lto 498* SF 91* Rat 98 sf 0/0
25 May Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (498/91.7) 8f gd/fm Hayd 12/1 8-0 13l 11/14 off 89 – 68
towards rear, ridden over 2f out, never a factor
11 May Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (97/85.5) 8f gd/sf Hayd 9/2 9-4 0.1l 2/6 off 87 – 91
held up in touch in rear, headway on outside 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on to press winner inside final furlong, just held
Winner over 6f at Nottingham on second start last July, but finished in his next two starts on the autumn and was gelded between seasons; there or thereabouts in each of his first three starts this term before putting in a shocker at Haydock lto; consistent before that and looks well weighted with his wfa allowance if ignoring it; a speculative contender.
I have a lot of problems here with the weights allotted as while some horses can function carrying 9-7 or more, many cannot, and here we have all but two squashed into the narrow space between 9-10 and 10-0. Of the horses in that range the only one coming to mind that has actually won with such a weight is Masham Star, but he is such an unpredictable character when it comes to actually winning; Just my luck for him to go in today!
Again a race to give a wide berth to, although Loch Ness Monster at the foot of the handicap might be worth a punt, while Sawwaah and Thrave might have chance too.
