Post by Old Timer on Dec 22, 2018 11:15:19 GMT
Finally broke the jinx last week, although more by good luck than good judgement as I honestly thought the weight would beat him. Just the one today I’m afraid – I did have a quick look at the Tommy Whittle too, but outside of Kimberlite Candy and sharp Response there’s not a lot of current form about, plus with the going turning to the usual Haydock quagmire I thought it a race best left alone.
Season’s greetings to all and hopefully see you on Boxing Day, although that’s not certain at present.
Ascot 15.00 Listed Hcap Chase 570 (157) 24f sf – 12 Run
Last year – 570 (156) gd/sf – 14 ran
Gold Present 17/2 7-11-3 (147) by 3l from Frodon 8/1 5-11-2 (151)
Gold Present 8-11-7 (152)
24 Nov Gr 2 Chase (400 d) 21f gd/sf Ascot 15/2 10.5l 3/6 off 152
led, mistake 3rd, reached for 9th, headed approaching 2 out, lost 2nd 2 out, plugged on in 3rd
Won first two starts last season including this off a 5lbs lower mark, and then not seen until Cheltenham in March where he broke a blood vessels in the heavy ground; also PU in the Scottish National on his final start of the season; had wind surgery in August and by no means disgraced when 3rd to Politologue in a Gr 2 over an inadequate 21f here towards the end of last month; likely to be better suited returned to handicapping over this trip; question about the ground though as while he had placed form on sf over hurdles, has not won on softer than gd/sf.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days); down in class;
Minus: 5lbs above last year’s winning mark
Verdict: (49) likely more to come this term and a contender if handling the ground.
Otago Trail 10-11-9 (154)
01 Dec List Hcap Chase (400 u) 23.5f sf Nwcs 11/1 3.5l 3/12 off 152
led, hit 9th, headed 2 out, rallied and every chance last, no extra closing stages
Fine performance when 3rd to Lake View Lad in the Rehearsal at Newcastle at the start of the month coming back from 22 months off, a race he’d won off 6lbs lower in 2016; has been raised 2lbs for that, but discounting the bounce factor is entitled to come on for the race; however, is only 3lbs higher than for his last success at Sandown in February 2017 and conditions should suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; ‘bounce’ (?)
Verdict: (48) showed he retains his ability at Newcastle and a possible contender.
Thomas Patrick 6-11-3 (148)
01 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1420 u) 26f sf Newb 3/1 F PU/12 off 148
mostly tracked leader until led 4th, mistake and briefly headed 6th, headed 15th, pushed along and lost 2nd before 17th, weakened quickly before next, behind and pulled up before 3 out
Has won half his chase starts to date including a Gr 3 HCh at Aintree last April; return was satisfactory enough when just outbattled at Sandown on his return in November; however, rather disappointed when favourite for the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury, several jumping errors draining his stamina and he was PU before 3 out; needs to bounce back from that, but conditions should suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (21 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (45) Progressive chaser before Newbury and a contender if bouncing back from that.
Benatar 6-11-4 (149)
24 Nov Gr 2 Chase (400 u) 21f gd/sf Ascot 9/2 16.5l 4/6 off 149
keen in rear, gained a place at 12th, plugged on in 4th on long run before 2 out
Won first 3 chase starts over shorter, including a Gr 2 NCh here over 21f at this meeting last year; 3rd in the GLT at the Festival in March on his final start of the season; looked to need his return at Newton Abbot in October, but showed improvement when 4/6 to Politologue in a Gr 2 her last month, 6l behind Gold Present (+1); is 2lbs better off today, but has yet to run beyond 21f , although did win a 24f P2P, plus only win on sf was in a mdn hdl.
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days); down in class;
Minus: distance (?);
Verdict: (41) promising chaser but no reason to expect reversal with Gold Present and thus not the strongest contender.
Favorito Buck’s 6-10-4 (135)
23 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (170 u) 24f gd Ascot 12/1 2.5l 1/9 off 129
made all, not fluent 11th, ridden 2 out, driven out
Career best when winning over C&D here last month, but that was only a Cl 3, plus it was on gd and he rather had the run of the race; runs off a 6lbs higher mark today but while he’s entitled to improve for that effort, this is a more demanding task both in opposition and going conditions.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (29 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going; up 6lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (37) too many questions to be a strong contender today.
What few trends there are suggest a 6yo to 8yo that has run within the past 6 weeks, while six of the last eight winners have won one of their last two starts, plus outside a 20/1 and 33/1 winner the rest have all been less than 9/1.
The one that does give me a little trouble is Full Glass having only his third UK start. Showed promise in France on demanding ground, but has insufficient UK form for me to judge him; so while he may win, he does not enter my considerations. Nor too does Jammin Masters who has yet to win over fences.
Looking at the ones that have made my shortlist, I have to pass on both Favorito Buck’s (ground and class), and Benatar (going and distance). Of the remaining trio, Otago Trail has a few queries as a 10yo carrying 11-9 and just one run 22 months or so. He may be fine, or he may bounce. As such I have to go for Gold Present to complete the double followed home by Thomas Patrick and Otago Trail.
Season’s greetings to all and hopefully see you on Boxing Day, although that’s not certain at present.
Ascot 15.00 Listed Hcap Chase 570 (157) 24f sf – 12 Run
Last year – 570 (156) gd/sf – 14 ran
Gold Present 17/2 7-11-3 (147) by 3l from Frodon 8/1 5-11-2 (151)
Gold Present 8-11-7 (152)
24 Nov Gr 2 Chase (400 d) 21f gd/sf Ascot 15/2 10.5l 3/6 off 152
led, mistake 3rd, reached for 9th, headed approaching 2 out, lost 2nd 2 out, plugged on in 3rd
Won first two starts last season including this off a 5lbs lower mark, and then not seen until Cheltenham in March where he broke a blood vessels in the heavy ground; also PU in the Scottish National on his final start of the season; had wind surgery in August and by no means disgraced when 3rd to Politologue in a Gr 2 over an inadequate 21f here towards the end of last month; likely to be better suited returned to handicapping over this trip; question about the ground though as while he had placed form on sf over hurdles, has not won on softer than gd/sf.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days); down in class;
Minus: 5lbs above last year’s winning mark
Verdict: (49) likely more to come this term and a contender if handling the ground.
Otago Trail 10-11-9 (154)
01 Dec List Hcap Chase (400 u) 23.5f sf Nwcs 11/1 3.5l 3/12 off 152
led, hit 9th, headed 2 out, rallied and every chance last, no extra closing stages
Fine performance when 3rd to Lake View Lad in the Rehearsal at Newcastle at the start of the month coming back from 22 months off, a race he’d won off 6lbs lower in 2016; has been raised 2lbs for that, but discounting the bounce factor is entitled to come on for the race; however, is only 3lbs higher than for his last success at Sandown in February 2017 and conditions should suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; ‘bounce’ (?)
Verdict: (48) showed he retains his ability at Newcastle and a possible contender.
Thomas Patrick 6-11-3 (148)
01 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1420 u) 26f sf Newb 3/1 F PU/12 off 148
mostly tracked leader until led 4th, mistake and briefly headed 6th, headed 15th, pushed along and lost 2nd before 17th, weakened quickly before next, behind and pulled up before 3 out
Has won half his chase starts to date including a Gr 3 HCh at Aintree last April; return was satisfactory enough when just outbattled at Sandown on his return in November; however, rather disappointed when favourite for the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury, several jumping errors draining his stamina and he was PU before 3 out; needs to bounce back from that, but conditions should suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (21 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (45) Progressive chaser before Newbury and a contender if bouncing back from that.
Benatar 6-11-4 (149)
24 Nov Gr 2 Chase (400 u) 21f gd/sf Ascot 9/2 16.5l 4/6 off 149
keen in rear, gained a place at 12th, plugged on in 4th on long run before 2 out
Won first 3 chase starts over shorter, including a Gr 2 NCh here over 21f at this meeting last year; 3rd in the GLT at the Festival in March on his final start of the season; looked to need his return at Newton Abbot in October, but showed improvement when 4/6 to Politologue in a Gr 2 her last month, 6l behind Gold Present (+1); is 2lbs better off today, but has yet to run beyond 21f , although did win a 24f P2P, plus only win on sf was in a mdn hdl.
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days); down in class;
Minus: distance (?);
Verdict: (41) promising chaser but no reason to expect reversal with Gold Present and thus not the strongest contender.
Favorito Buck’s 6-10-4 (135)
23 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (170 u) 24f gd Ascot 12/1 2.5l 1/9 off 129
made all, not fluent 11th, ridden 2 out, driven out
Career best when winning over C&D here last month, but that was only a Cl 3, plus it was on gd and he rather had the run of the race; runs off a 6lbs higher mark today but while he’s entitled to improve for that effort, this is a more demanding task both in opposition and going conditions.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (29 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going; up 6lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (37) too many questions to be a strong contender today.
What few trends there are suggest a 6yo to 8yo that has run within the past 6 weeks, while six of the last eight winners have won one of their last two starts, plus outside a 20/1 and 33/1 winner the rest have all been less than 9/1.
The one that does give me a little trouble is Full Glass having only his third UK start. Showed promise in France on demanding ground, but has insufficient UK form for me to judge him; so while he may win, he does not enter my considerations. Nor too does Jammin Masters who has yet to win over fences.
Looking at the ones that have made my shortlist, I have to pass on both Favorito Buck’s (ground and class), and Benatar (going and distance). Of the remaining trio, Otago Trail has a few queries as a 10yo carrying 11-9 and just one run 22 months or so. He may be fine, or he may bounce. As such I have to go for Gold Present to complete the double followed home by Thomas Patrick and Otago Trail.
