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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 6, 2018 14:02:22 GMT
This idea is based on races up to 1 mile but 5&6F are the ones that interest me most and ones I will show here.
The software I use allows values for price & last 6 runs which are added to the R/POST SPEED RATING and other things like CD C D ETC.
In most cases the top 3 selections will be shown but hopefully the TOP RATED WILL WIN more than the rest.
OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS
14 RACES FOUND 9 TOP RATED WINNERS SELECTIONS 16 [2 JT TOP] RETURNED 34.91PTS
At all times the stated prices are taken from LADBROKES at the time I do the race and [bog] applies to returns.
Warning this is a new idea and the NEXT 14 races may find none but if one never tries one will never know
Their were 2 races today 1 did not qualify due to lack of speed ratings
This is the only 1
8.45K 6F H
OUR MAN IN HAVANA 5/1 [93] MOTHER OF DRAGONS 12/1 [92] MONTAGUE 11/4 [91]
Unfortunately this is only a 6 runner race but showing the top 3 the software picks as an example of what to expect.
T
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 6, 2018 14:39:42 GMT
Good luck.
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 6, 2018 16:26:12 GMT
Thank you I may need it but I hope to find some winners along the way.
T
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 7, 2018 11:32:08 GMT
This idea is based on races up to 1 mile but 5&6F are the ones that interest me most and ones I will show here.
The software I use allows values for price & last 6 runs which are added to the R/POST SPEED RATING and other things like CD C D ETC.
In most cases the top 3 selections will be shown but hopefully the TOP RATED WILL WIN more than the rest.
OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS
14 RACES FOUND 9 TOP RATED WINNERS SELECTIONS 16 [2 JT TOP] RETURNED 34.91PTS
At all times the stated prices are taken from LADBROKES at the time I do the race and [bog] applies to returns.
Warning this is a new idea and the NEXT 14 races may find none but if one never tries one will never know
Their were 2 races today 1 did not qualify due to lack of speed ratings
This is the only 1
8.45K 6F H
OUR MAN IN HAVANA 5/1 [93] MOTHER OF DRAGONS 12/1 [92] MONTAGUE 11/4 [91]
Unfortunately this is only a 6 runner race but showing the top 3 the software picks as an example of what to expect.
T
The t/r ran 2nd @ 8/1
Although I've taken a look at Mondays A W race card their are no 5&6f races. 4 on Tuesday and 4 on Wednesday.
If any one would like to see my ratings for 7f and 1mile races I don't mind showing them but only if you wish.
Their were 5 races over 7f or a mile yesterday the ratings found the winner in four of them from top 3 and a profit of 7pts. I'm new here and don't know whether members will like this approach as its quite different to most. It must be said I only put in the DATA the software makes the predictions.
As for price & last 6 runs the software as a starting point of 90 for each and the maximum for both is 120 and if the last 6 runs of any horse had no PLACES in 1st 4 it would stay at 90 but 5 3 2 1 pts are added [1st 2nd 3rd or 4th]. Price is a bit of an unknown but the fav would have the most pts added but would need to be at least 1/3 on for it to be around the 120 mark but in this case it can actually go below 90 for those 33/1 and above.
Any questions please ask
Tony
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 8, 2018 11:17:24 GMT
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 8, 2018 19:56:52 GMT
Although no 5&6f races today their are four 7f races which don't look up to much as 2 of them are APPRENTICE RACE but this is what the software came up with and all races are handicaps
CARD NUMBERS ONLY
4.15 cl6 [9run]apprentice
3 [103] 10/3 now 4/1
2 [91] 7/2 now 10/3  2ND 5/1
1 [88] 3/1 now 11/4  W 11/4 F/C 16.35
4.45 cl6 [9run] apprentice
1 [98] 4/1
4&9 [96] 7/1 now 15/2 [7/1 now 8/1] W 7/1 2ND 12/1 F/C 81.24
7.15 cl6 [now 10 run] THIS RACE IS DIRE
3&10 [83] 13/2 NOW 10/1 [17/2 NOW 11/1] L 3RD 9/2
7 [82] 7/1 NOW 15/2]
7.45 CL5 ONLY 4 RUN WHICH MAKES IT IFFY
1&3 [96] 7/2 [11/8 NOW 6/4]
The 1st price shown was LADBROKES PRICE at the time I did the race
T
not a disaster depending on how you looked at them
T
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 9, 2018 13:42:43 GMT
SOUTHWELL
1.45 CL3 1M
9 [100] 6 [98] 8 [96]
REST WILL BE UP STRAIGHT AWAY AS I'VE BEEN OUT
T |
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 9, 2018 13:50:20 GMT
SOUTHWELL
1.45 CL3 1M
9 [100] 2nd 10/1 6 [98] 8 [96] 3rd 14/1
REST WILL BE UP STRAIGHT AWAY AS I'VE BEEN OUT
T 2.20 CL4 6F
4 [108] 11/10 6 [103] 5/1 2nd 7/2 5 [98] 11/1
2.55 CL6 6F
5 12/1 2. 3. 7 9/2 5/1 14/1 3rd 4/1
3.30 CL6 5F HANDS & HEELS
1 4/1 3 12/1 3rd 20/1 4 10/3 2nd 10/3
I missed writing down the actual overall rating for last 2 races and the prices shown are what's stated now [Ladbrokes]
TAKE CARE
T
PS unfortunately I had to go out and missed showing 12.45 & 1.15 race and the later found the 25/1 winner from 2 selections but when I did the race it was only 9/1 but if you were 2 view that race it did have the 2nd highest speed rating for the race
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 9, 2018 18:00:56 GMT
SOUTHWELL
1.45 CL3 1M
9 [100] 2nd 10/1 6 [98] 8 [96] 3rd 14/1
REST WILL BE UP STRAIGHT AWAY AS I'VE BEEN OUT
T 2.20 CL4 6F
4 [108] 11/10 6 [103] 5/1 2nd 7/2 5 [98] 11/1
2.55 CL6 6F
5 12/1 2. 3. 7 9/2 5/1 14/1 3rd 4/1
3.30 CL6 5F HANDS & HEELS
1 4/1 3 12/1 3rd 20/1 4 10/3 2nd 10/3
I missed writing down the actual overall rating for last 2 races and the prices shown are what's stated now [Ladbrokes]
TAKE CARE
T
PS unfortunately I had to go out and missed showing 12.45 & 1.15 race and the later found the 25/1 winner from 2 selections but when I did the race it was only 9/1 but if you were 2 view that race it did have the 2nd highest speed rating for the race
just place horse today but 3 in double figures. |
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Post by dennisg on Jan 10, 2018 7:41:14 GMT
very interesting Tony, and thanks for sharing these, i'ts "got legs" as they say. And once again welcome to the forum.
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 10, 2018 11:18:35 GMT
WARNING
2 of these races are CLASS 7 and in my mind ROCK BOTTOM
LINGFIELD
1.10 CL6 7F VERY POOR
3 [86] 13/8 1 [81] 7/1 NOW 6/1 10 [77] 13/2
2.50
LEFT ALONE ONLY 4 RUN AND 1 AS A RATING MISING
3.25 CL7 5F
1 [87] 11/4 4 [85] 7/1 7 [84] 6/1
KEMPTON
4.15 CL7 7F
1 [89] 2/1 10 [85] 13/2 12 [84] 13/2
6.15 CL2 6F COND ST
6 [107] 10/3 4 [104] 6/1 3 [103] 5/2 NOW 11/4
6.45 CL6 6F
8 [99] 4/1 2&9 [95] 15/2 [6/1 NOW 11/2]
A look and see type of day today but one never knows
Take care
T
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 10, 2018 23:55:08 GMT
WARNING
2 of these races are CLASS 7 and in my mind ROCK BOTTOM
LINGFIELD
1.10 CL6 7F VERY POOR
3 [86] 13/8 3RD 2/1 1 [81] 7/1 NOW 6/1 2ND 4/1 10 [77] 13/2
2.50
LEFT ALONE ONLY 4 RUN AND 1 AS A RATING MISING
3.25 CL7 5F
1 [87] 11/4 W 3/1 4 [85] 7/1 7 [84] 6/1 3RD 4/1
KEMPTON
4.15 CL7 7F
1 [89] 2/1 W 6/4 10 [85] 13/2 2ND 16/1 12 [84] 13/2 F/C 28.15
6.15 CL2 6F COND ST
6 [107] 10/3 4 [104] 6/1 3 [103] 5/2 NOW 11/4 W 4/1
6.45 CL6 6F
8 [99] 4/1 2&9 [95] 15/2 [6/1 NOW 11/2] L W 6/1 3RD 20/1
A look and see type of day today but one never knows
Take care
T
As I said in the 1st post its the 5-6f races which are likely to be best and all 3 found the winner and in those cases 9 selections returned 16pt so 7pts profit there. Top rated only in those would have made 1 pt.
OVERALL THEIR WERE 15/4 WINS RETURNED 19PTS [BOG] P/L + 4PTS.
I may not be around tomorrow as I'm having a new boiler installed and may disappear till they finish but if that's the case may get time to do CHELMSFORDS NIGHT MEETING.
T
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Post by liz on Jan 11, 2018 11:52:34 GMT
We have just had a new one fitted and we got out of the way. Hope yours is as successful as ours.  |
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 11, 2018 12:47:11 GMT
NEWCASTLE
4.05 CL3 7F14y H
4 [101] 7/1 now 15/2 2 [100] 5/4
4.35 CL3 5F
6&7 [99] 11/4 6/1 2 [97] 11/4
CHELMSFORD
5.55 CL5 1M H
1 [105] 5/4 NOW 6/4 W 15/8 3 [91] 20/1 6 [90] 9/2 NOW 11/4
6.30 CL5 7F H
1 7/2 2ND 4/1 4 11/8 NOW 6/4 9 25/1
8.30 CL6 6F H
4 [93] 15/8 2ND 11/8 5 [91] 14/1 NOW 12/1 1 [90] 13/8 W 9/4
9.00 CL6 6F H
4 [94] 2/1 5 [88] 8/1 NOW 13/2 1&10 [82] 13/2 NOW 7/1 20/1 2ND 10/1
TAKE CARE
T
POOR DAY
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 12, 2018 12:46:56 GMT
ALTHOUG I WAS ONLY GOING TO SHOW 5&6F RACES UP TO 1M NOW INCLUDED BUT 5&6F WILL ALWAYS BE SHOWN IN BOLD AND SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
LINGFIELD
12.50 1M H
4 5/1 6 9/1 1 7/2
1.20 1M H
7 11/1 1 4/5 4 8/1
1.50 1M H
3 9/4 5 9/1 2 6/1
2.20 7F
8 11/2 4&7 11/8 12/1
REST WILL BE UP SHORTLY
T
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 12, 2018 13:03:35 GMT
ALTHOUG I WAS ONLY GOING TO SHOW 5&6F RACES UP TO 1M NOW INCLUDED BUT 5&6F WILL ALWAYS BE SHOWN IN BOLD AND SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
LINGFIELD
12.50 1M H
4 5/1 w 9/2 6 9/1 1 7/2
1.20 1M H
7 11/1 1 4/5 w 5/4 4 8/1
1.50 1M H
3 9/4 w 15/8 5 9/1 2 6/1
2.20 7F
8 11/2 4&7 11/8 12/1
REST WILL BE UP SHORTLY
T
2.50 CL6 6F CLAIMING ST
4 [105] 7/4 w 9/4 2 [100] 4/1 6 [98] 13/2 WAS 5/1
3.20 CL5 6F NOVICE ST
1&4 [98] 2/1 4/1 L w13/2
3.50 CL6 5 H [APPENTICE]
4 [102] 3/1 1 [98] 3/1 2nd 5/1 3 [96] 6/1
NEWCASTLE
5.45 CL5 6F H [THIS RACE IS ONLY BASED ON PRICE + LAST 6 RUNS] IFFY
2 13/8 5 11/1
6.15 CL6 5F H
2&5 [83] 5/4 7/1 4 [82] 4/1
6.45 LEFT ALONE
7.15 CL4 7F
5&6 5/1 4/1 11 12/1
7.45 LEFT ALONE
8.15 CL7 5F [ROCK BOTTOM RACE]
5 [89] 12/1 2 [85] 6/4 7 [84] 18/1
TAKE CARE
T
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 12, 2018 13:14:56 GMT
We have just had a new one fitted and we got out of the way. Hope yours is as successful as ours. No probs and far better than the last one [13yr old] and if it last as long that would be great.
Tony
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 12, 2018 20:33:31 GMT
ALTHOUG I WAS ONLY GOING TO SHOW 5&6F RACES UP TO 1M NOW INCLUDED BUT 5&6F WILL ALWAYS BE SHOWN IN BOLD AND SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
LINGFIELD
12.50 1M H
4 5/1 w 9/2 6 9/1 1 7/2
1.20 1M H
7 11/1 1 4/5 w 5/4 4 8/1
1.50 1M H
3 9/4 w 15/8 5 9/1 2 6/1
2.20 7F
8 11/2 4&7 11/8 12/1
REST WILL BE UP SHORTLY
T
2.50 CL6 6F CLAIMING ST
4 [105] 7/4 w 9/4 2 [100] 4/1 6 [98] 13/2 WAS 5/1
3.20 CL5 6F NOVICE ST
1&4 [98] 2/1 4/1 L w13/2
3.50 CL6 5 H [APPENTICE]
4 [102] 3/1 1 [98] 3/1 2nd 5/1 3 [96] 6/1
NEWCASTLE
5.45 CL5 6F H [THIS RACE IS ONLY BASED ON PRICE + LAST 6 RUNS] IFFY
2 13/8 5 11/1
6.15 CL6 5F H
2&5 [83] 5/4 7/1 w 4/5 4 [82] 4/1 2nd
6.45 LEFT ALONE
7.15 CL4 7F
5&6 5/1 4/1 L w 5/1 11 12/1
7.45 LEFT ALONE
8.15 CL7 5F [ROCK BOTTOM RACE]
5 [89] 12/1 w 12/1 2 [85] 6/4 7 [84] 18/1 3rd 14/1
TAKE CARE
T
I would call that a good day at the office
T
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 12, 2018 20:41:00 GMT
A very good day.
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 12, 2018 20:49:52 GMT
Can these be worked out using pen and paper?
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 12, 2018 23:46:54 GMT
Can these be worked out using pen and paper? 75% of it could but it would take ages and the biggest prob would be the price element as every individual price as a rating of it own.
Also in this case other pts are added as well as deducted before I end up with the final rating.
T
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Post by dennisg on Jan 13, 2018 8:47:20 GMT
excellent results Tony
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 13, 2018 13:28:49 GMT
MISSED 1ST 12.50 FOUND 2/1 WINNER
1.25 CL3 6F
5 [105] 1 [104] 9 [103]
2.00 CL2 1M
4 [113] 11/4 1&6 [111] 7/2 20/1 NOTE NO 5 AS NO SPEED RATING AND 2ND FAV [1131]
WOLVES WILL BE UP LATER
T
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 13, 2018 13:37:27 GMT
MISSED 1ST 12.50 FOUND 2/1 WINNER
1.25 CL3 6F
5 [105] 1 [104] 9 [103]
2.00 CL2 1M
4 [113] 11/4 1&6 [111] 7/2 20/1 NOTE NO 5 AS NO SPEED RATING AND 2ND FAV [1131]
WOLVES WILL BE UP LATER
T
SORRY I FORGOT TO PRESS THE CREATE BUTTOM BUT IT DID NOT FIND THE WINNER ANYWAY
WOLVES
6.15 1 M 1/2 F [WOULD NO MNORMALLY DO THIS RACE
8 [103] 9/1 3 [102] 5/2 9 [98] 15/2
7.15 CL5 6F
11 [105] 6/1 6 [101] 22/1 3 [99] 10/1
7.45 CL5 6F
8 [110] 5/4 3&11 [98] 9/2 50/1
8.45 CL4 5F
2 [105] 5/1 5 [104] 9/2 4 [97] 7/2
T
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 14, 2018 11:04:08 GMT
The last 2 days shows to sides of a coin heads up 1 day tails down the next.
Although may seem strange in some ways I'm glad it did not perform yesterday as these days will come along and one never knows when these days will come along.
I can assure you if I could say THAT RACE WILL HAVE THE WINNER but that's not the case as we all know.
Todays will be up around noon
T |
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 14, 2018 12:13:26 GMT
SOUTHWELL
1.20 CL6 7F
7 [85] 3/1 W 5/2 1 [84] 9/4 2ND 9/4 4 [81] 13/2 NOW 6/1
2.25 CL4 5F
7 [104] 13/2 W 8/1 1 [103] 7/2 NOW 4/1 3 [102] 10/3
3.25 CL6 7F
1 [102] 9/4 NOW 5/2 5 [101] 7/1 2&3 [94] 5/2 NOW 2/1 7/1 W 11/8
3.55 CL6 1M
2 [103] 10/11 NOW 1/1 1 [91] 12/1 W 14/1 5 [88] 9/1 3RD 9/1
TAKE CARE
T
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 14, 2018 16:10:27 GMT
SOUTHWELL
1.20 CL6 7F
7 [85] 3/1 W 5/2 1 [84] 9/4 2ND 9/4 4 [81] 13/2 NOW 6/1
2.25 CL4 5F
7 [104] 13/2 W 8/1 [betfair 10,26] 1 [103] 7/2 NOW 4/1 3 [102] 10/3
3.25 CL6 7F
1 [102] 9/4 NOW 5/2 5 [101] 7/1 2&3 [94] 5/2 NOW 2/1 7/1 W 11/8
3.55 CL6 1M
2 [103] 10/11 NOW 1/1 1 [91] 12/1 W 14/1 [betfair 20] 5 [88] 9/1 3RD 9/1
TAKE CARE
T
Back on the right track today and every race finding the winner
4 races 4 winner overall selections 13 returned 31pts p/l + 18pts
Tony
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 15, 2018 12:27:26 GMT
WOLVES
4.35 CL6 6F
2 [88] 1/1 5 [82] 15/2 7 [80] 14/1
5.10 CL6 CLAIMING ST
8 [100] 9/2 5 [97] 15/2 7 [96] 4/1 W 11/2
7.40 CL6 5F
5 [95] 5/1 3RD 8/1 2&6 9/2 9/4 2ND 5/2
T |
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 16, 2018 10:57:33 GMT
KEMPTON
4.35 CL6 6F H
2 [97] 4/1 10 [92] 10/1 NOW 12/1 2nd 10/1 3&9 [88] 6/1 [6/4 now 11/8] w 10/1 3rd 1/1 fc 94.89 exacta 95.3 tri 186.63 trifecta 352.3
5.10 CL5 7F H
4 [96] 10/1 w 9/1 6 [95] 11/1 1 [94] 10/3
5.40 CL3 7F H
8 [108] 9/1 W 10/1 2&6 [101] 8/1 NOW 15/2 10/1
6.10 CL4 1M H
2 [94] 11/4 9 [90] 9/2 4 [88] 11/2
6.40 CL2 5F CONDITION ST
1 [110] 4/5 W 1/1 3 [97] 16/1
As always take care
T
A GOOD DAY AT THE OFFICE
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Post by tony2tenths on Jan 18, 2018 10:23:29 GMT
SOUTHWELL
12.50 CL6 1M H [IFFY]
2 [97] 7/4 1 [85] 10/1 6 [82] 10/1
1.20 CL6 7F H
1 MAYBE N/R 4&9 [93] 10/3 15/2 L W4/1
1.50 CL5 5F MAIDEN ST [VERY IFFY]
9 [91] 7/4 1 [85] 9/2 2ND 7/2 6 [81] 3/1
2.20 CL4 6F H
2 [100] 3/1 2ND 11/4 4 [97] 4/1 3 [81] 11/1 NOW 14/1
3.30 CL6 5F H
1 [94] 6/1 NOW 15/2 2 [92] 2/1 W 13/8 3 [90] 8/1
CHELMSFORD
5.55 CL6 6F H
1 [105] 7/4 NOW 11/8 2nd 5/2 10 [97] 9/1 NOW 12/1 4 [92] 20/1
8.30 CL5 6F H
2 [99] 5/4 NOW 10/11 1 [92] 5/1 NOW 6/1
TAKE CARE
T
poor day
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2ND 5/1
W 11/4 
