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Post by Kimmy on Feb 11, 2015 8:29:26 GMT
Wednesday 11th February
Rein Man / Wednesday 11th February 2015 / 06:33 Musselburgh 14.45
If Kai Broon was 11/4 today at Musselburgh I'd back him. He's 10/1. This is a modest race where few can be given serious claims. It's worth noting that Classinaglass was a well backed favourite last time on handicap debut and can be expected to go well today. However, he is likely to want further, especially on this quickish ground. Brunello is a last time out winner and so naturally has to be given respect but there is little strength in depth here. Kai Broon will love the ground, unlike many of these, and he has a serious chance. The yard in flying, he's back off his last winning mark and, for all that was nearly 3 years ago, he shaped for a step up in trip last time over 2 miles here. His only other start at the trip on good ground saw him 2nd off 8lb higher and he's a stonking bet at that price. Kai Broon - 1pt e/w @ 10/1 Kempton 18.15
I'm tempted by Madrasa in the next but the race is a little trickier with a few more unknown quantities and he's not quite big enough. At Kempton I like the chances of Puzzle Time but she's quite well found in the market in an open race. At the prices, Atlantic Affair looks underestimated at 19/2 for a team that sent out their first 2015 winner yesterday. 10lb below her opening handicap mark as a juvenile, she's been lightly raced since and shaped encouragingly on polytrack debut last time. This step up in trip looks set to suit on that form and is absolutely feasible on pedigree. There's not bags of guaranteed pace here either and she should be suited by sitting prominently, as expected, especially given the shorter home straight. Her full sister's 3 career wins came on polytrack, including 1 here, and I fancy she'll go close. Atlantic Affair - 1pt e/w @ 19/2
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 11, 2015 8:29:49 GMT
Wednesday 11th February
Rein Man / Wednesday 11th February 2015 / 06:33 Musselburgh 14.45
If Kai Broon was 11/4 today at Musselburgh I'd back him. He's 10/1. This is a modest race where few can be given serious claims. It's worth noting that Classinaglass was a well backed favourite last time on handicap debut and can be expected to go well today. However, he is likely to want further, especially on this quickish ground. Brunello is a last time out winner and so naturally has to be given respect but there is little strength in depth here. Kai Broon will love the ground, unlike many of these, and he has a serious chance. The yard in flying, he's back off his last winning mark and, for all that was nearly 3 years ago, he shaped for a step up in trip last time over 2 miles here. His only other start at the trip on good ground saw him 2nd off 8lb higher and he's a stonking bet at that price. Kai Broon - 1pt e/w @ 10/1 Kempton 18.15
I'm tempted by Madrasa in the next but the race is a little trickier with a few more unknown quantities and he's not quite big enough. At Kempton I like the chances of Puzzle Time but she's quite well found in the market in an open race. At the prices, Atlantic Affair looks underestimated at 19/2 for a team that sent out their first 2015 winner yesterday. 10lb below her opening handicap mark as a juvenile, she's been lightly raced since and shaped encouragingly on polytrack debut last time. This step up in trip looks set to suit on that form and is absolutely feasible on pedigree. There's not bags of guaranteed pace here either and she should be suited by sitting prominently, as expected, especially given the shorter home straight. Her full sister's 3 career wins came on polytrack, including 1 here, and I fancy she'll go close. Atlantic Affair - 1pt e/w @ 19/2
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 12, 2015 11:48:13 GMT
Thursday 12th February
Rein Man / Wednesday 11th February 2015 / 20:07 Kelso 16:00
The champ could have a decent day at Kelso today and I'm hoping one of his bigger priced winners is Flying Eagle for Peter Bowen. Sent off 5/2 joint favourite for handicap debut on reappearance, he ran as if he needed the race, especially on heavy ground. Conditions could even be on the quick side today but there is still soft in the going description and he'll fare better with that run under his belt. It's open but he's a decent price at 6/1 for a yard in form. Flying Eagle - 1pt e/w @ 6/1 Meydan 17:05
Meydan looks fab again for a few bets and Godolphin could well dominate the 12 furlong turf handicap. Excellent Result should fare better now he's had a run, as was the case 12 months ago, and he'll likely reverse form with last time out course and distance winner Al Saham. However, Songcraft won this last year and 3 years ago off 4lb and 8lb lower respectively and wins fresh year in year out. He gets further but there's enough pace on here for him to get involved and he was just touched off in Group company by Excellent Result here last year. A 6lb pull swings this his way and he should be favourite for me, shorter than 7/1. Songcraft - 1pt e/w @ 6/1 Meydan 15:20
Earlier on the card, the 10 furlong turf handicap is wide open with some decent prices to have a go at. I like Pilote and Van Rooney the most. The former will want pace here and that looks likely, though not an absolute certainty. There should be more than last time over this trip though and he's been given a real chance here eased a couple of pounds. 3lb lower than when favourite over 9 furlongs 2 starts back, he has a super chance at 7/1. Van Rooney looks to have been underestimated at 25/1, especially given Adrie de Vries is on top, riding really well here of late. He should come on for the run last time and, though his best form has apparantly come on the tapeta out here, he was every bit the turf performer back in Ireland. His form last term suggests scope off this mark and he's unexposed at the trip. Pilote - 1pt e/w @ 7/1
Van Rooney looks to have been underestimated at 25/1, especially given Adrie de Vries is on top, riding really well here of late. He should come on for the run last time and, though his best form has apparantly come on the tapeta out here, he was every bit the turf performer back in Ireland. His form last term suggests scope off this mark and he's unexposed at the trip. Van Rooney - 1pt e/w @ 25/1
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 13, 2015 9:21:09 GMT
Friday 13th February
Rein Man / Thursday 12th February 2015 / 19:14 Sandown 14.00
The 3 mile and a bit handicap at Sandown is a belter. 2 stand out at the prices at this stage. No Duffer should be favourite for me but is 7/1. He would very likely have won last time but for a race ending error four out. It's the course and distance form and price about On Trend that makes him the bet though at 12/1. The handicapper has given him a proper chance here off 119, 1lb above his last win and 13lb lower than his win here 2 years ago. The visor didn't work last time and he was never travelling. There again he wasn't here either 2 starts back but was beaten just 14 lengths by Unioniste and that highlights his chances back here. There's nothing of Unioniste quality today and I like that the blinkers are back on. On Trend - 1pt e/w @ 12/1
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 14, 2015 9:06:12 GMT
Saturday 14th February
Rein Man / Saturday 14th February 2015 / 08:29
Haydock 14:55
The Grand National trial looks a race worth taking a few in (can't find a bet at Ascot, though Ballycasy got me half excited). Broadway Buffalo went up here last time he was entered before being withdrawn on the morning of the race. I'm not giving up though as he loves Haydock and should appreciate the step up in trip. Last time probably came too soon and he's big enough at 7/1. Rigadin De Beauchene could also be worth a pop. He won the race last year off 7lb lower but he won easy and beat the Welsh National winner in the process. 2nd the year before, he has every chance of getting involved at 12/1. Broadway Buffalo - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 Wincanton 13:20
The opener at Wincanton is weak and there's a handicap debutant who might just be well treated. I'm a touch disappointed with the price about City Supreme but don't want to miss out on what could be some clever placement from a yard that have had a few handicap debut winners this term. They are also in great form and this horse, who had solid bumper form, has been over inadequate trips in 3 hurdles starts. He's up in trip and tongue tie fitted at 7/1 today. It's open but he'll likely go off shorter. City Supreme - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 Wincanton 14:30
I said I wouldn't back Oscar Prairie until the blinkers went back on but here he is and here they aren't. He's just been given a great chance eased a further 3lb with a 10lb claimer on top and up in trip. Staying on last time, he finished level with Pride In Battle and both make appeal but the selection is the bigger price. The yard have been quiet but they've had a break and that could spell better. He's gone well at the track before and is worth a conservative nibble at 16/1. Oscar Prairie - 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 Haydock 14:55
Rigadin De Beauchene could also be worth a pop. He won the race last year off 7lb lower but he won easy and beat the Welsh National winner in the process. 2nd the year before, he has every chance of getting involved at 12/1. Rigadin De Beauchene - 1pt e/w @ 12/1
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 15, 2015 12:58:40 GMT
Sunday 15th February
Rein Man / Sunday 15th February 2015 / 12:23 Navan 14:15
Briar Hill needs forgiving this afternoon after some poor efforts this term but he may have needed it on return when a mistake cost him any chance. He travelled well last time at Gowran before finding little but I fancy this ground and trip may be that little bit more in his favour than last time. Dedigout has had his issues and is a bit of a Bog Warrior type in that he needs plenty of cut. Today's surface should be no problem but others will perhaps be less inconvenienced than they were last time and 11/8 is short enough. Briar Hill was a serious horse last term and a return to that sort of form should see him win this at 5/2. Briar Hill - 1pt @ 5/2 Navan 15:55
The Ten Up has my RSA tip running but I don't fancy Apache Jack will win in this ground and wouldn't be too concerned if he's beaten. Good ground is his thing. This looks to be between Thunder And Roses and Noble Emperor and I can't really spit them. The fact that the former is bigger at 7/2 makes him the bet and he did have the measure of the JP horse at Fairyhouse at the end of Novemeber. Who knows what would have happened next time without him coming down but it would have been close. That Apache Stronghold form is rock solid though and at least he has won at the trip, though it's hard to argue Noble Emperor doesn't get it. Interesting Cooper has chosen Very Wood who would be a danger if back on song in returning cheekpieces. Thunder And Roses - 1pt @ 7/2
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 16, 2015 12:07:52 GMT
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Rein Man / Monday 16th February 2015 / 11:49 Supreme Novices Hurdle
Tough weekend for the 2 ante post bets so far. Ballycasey wasn't right, he's much better than that and it would be no surprise if he scoped poorly or something else came to light. Either way it was a bad sign. Apache Jack won't even get to Cheltenham on what he showed, hammered 75 lengths after positive vibes in the betting. It's difficult to hold out hope for either at this stage but you never know.
Time to dip the toe into the novice hurdle waters and I'm still none the wiser as to what the Mullins team will do. I half expect them to go from the front with Nicholls Canyon in the opener but that could mean they move Douvan to the Neptune. That looks improbable. Either way, we know the history of Supreme favourites and, whilst Douvan deserves his place at the top of the market and looks bomb proof on what we've seen on the track, that last run was some time ago. 2 right handed spins on deepish ground to date leaves a few unknowns at a best priced 2/1. There's plenty of value to be had in behind and further down the betting than L'Ami Serge. I've backed Jollyallan earlier in the season but couldn't put him up after last time. He's got an engine but there's something lacking as far as a Supreme horse goes and he'll probably be at his best as a chaser. Nicholls Canyon and Shaneshill will likely be kept apart but I don't like either of them for this race as it happens. Qewy was very impressive last time but Cheltenham will be a very different test and he's all of a sudden very well found in the market whilst 2 of Alvisio Ville, Tell Us More and Outlander will likely end up elsewhere.
Next in the betting is Seedling who we've not seen since he won at Cheltenham in December carrying a double penalty. 3 from 3 this term for Warren Greatrex (though Charles Egerton is still involved with the horse and deserves plenty of credit), he is now rated 149 having gone up a further 5lb without running. That's 1lb above Josses Hill at this stage last year, the same as Irving and 5lb below Vautour. Here's how previous winners of that Cheltenham novice have faired at the festival:
Noland - won Supreme. Tidal Bay - 2nd in Neptune. Calgary Bay - unplaced in Supreme. Karabak - 2nd in Neptune. General Miller - unseated at first in Supreme at 25/1. Prince Of Pirates didn't run again until May BUT Al Ferof would very likely have won the race but for falling 2 out when clear - he won the Supreme. Darlan - 2nd in Supreme. Melodic Rendezvous missed the festival, but was a 163 rated hurdler. Ballyalton - 2nd in Neptune (to you know who).
All in all, winners of the race have a very solid record at the festival. The concern is that we've not seen Seedling since December whereas the above had had at least 1 other outing. However, what makes Seedling slightly different is that he's a 2nd season hurdler and doesn't lack for experience. He chased home the likes of Calipto last term and, more importantly with the Supreme in mind, Wilde Blue Yonder who was 5th in the race last year. Seedling was 6 lengths ahead of Sign Of A Victory that day and shaped for more of a test, the type a big field Supreme should provide. He has since proved himself at Cheltenham and not stopped improving. The yard are aiming him for this race and, whilst winning it does look a stretch for even the most positive of punters to be confident about him winning, 33/1 is definitely too big.
He was pulled out of the Betfair hurdle for 2 reasons. First the ground was a worry as his trainer thinks he'll improve for better. Half brother to a heavy ground winner and a soft - good ground winner, he himself has won on anything from good to heavy. He is by quick ground loving sire Cockney Rebel but there again his progeny tend to appreciate a bit of cut. Either way he's probably best away form ground extremes and the good to soft nailed on opening race ground should be ideal, for him and plenty of others. The other reason for swerving the Betfair was yard form and, as his trainer pointed out, there's no point running him on bad ground with the yard struggling as it will do little for confidence. I fancy off 144 at the time he felt they had little chance in the circumstances. The yard had a winner in Seedling's colours on Saturday, another former Egerton horse, and the enforced break looks to have done them good.
His form is solid with As De Mee winning again of late, the Nicholls horse he beat easily giving him 7lb. Some Plan, 2nd at Cheltenham in receipt of 4lb, has come out and won the Supreme Scottish Trial by 9 lengths. Tom George's horse got the run of the race that day but it's hard to see that form as anything other than a huge positive for Seedling's chances. It's form that needed to work out to give him a sniff in Cheltenham's opener but he now looks more than just a lively outsider. Imagine if he hailed from 1 of the bigger yards, an easy 3 from 3 this term with Cheltenham form in the book. No 33/1 shot. Seedling - 1pt e/w @ 33/1
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 17, 2015 12:49:35 GMT
Rein Man / Tuesday 17th February 2015 / 11:25 Wetherby 14:20
The Flaming Matron has obvious claims in the mares' novices' chase but there are a few unexposed types here who should appreciate a return to better ground. Notably Innocent Girl and Iconic Rose. The former makes her chase debut and this looks about her trip. She's still got something to prove off this mark though whereas Iconic Rose is 3lb below her last win (hurdles) and both career wins have come on good to soft. Her 2 chase starts of late have been on heavy and that really hasn't seemed to suit. Perhaps she isn't a chaser but she looks worth another go given conditions this afternoon at 7/1. Iconic Rose - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 Wetherby 15:55
There's a fair few on the shortlist for the 2 mile 6 handicap hurdle at Wetherby and I was going to leave alone as a result. Waterclock should go close with cheekpieces on and over a little further as he was a proper stayer on the flat. A few at big prices hail from yards in form though, notably the Sue Smith pair (preference for Not A Bother Boy) and Minella Hero from Micky Hammond's yard. He has to be worth a play at 33/1. A dual winner on good ground, he made a most discouraging start in handicap company on soft off 7lb higher. His debut for this yard was pleasing and it came at this track. He didn't build on it next time at Catterick, again with a bit of juice in the ground, but this is the best ground he'll have had since his last win an he looks worth stepping up in trip on pedigree. Whilst that last win was fortunate, his Boxing Day run suggests this mark isn't beyond him and the yard are going along nicely. Minella Hero - 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 18, 2015 8:42:22 GMT
Rein Man / Tuesday 17th February 2015 / 18:49 Kempton 19:10
Strategic Force is back on polytrack after a run on tapeta and he'll likely go off shorter than 11/2. The form of that run (4th) last time has worked out with the progressive winner scoring again, the 2nd running well up in class and the 3rd winning next time and the race was good on the clock. He was 7/4 that day and the surface may not have been ideal, or at least not as much to his liking as this. He still looks handily treated. Strategic Force - 2pt @ 11/2 Doncaster 15:55
Milan Bound is back after being hammered in the betting last time but ultimately disappointing. He was first to give chase to runaway subsequent scorer Bygones Sovereign that day and that took its toll late on but he was still far from convincing. Better ground may help and he may have needed the run. Western Jo and particularly Wicked Spice will be big dangers though. Nicky Richards is in excellent form and his 6 year old bolted up over course and distance on handicap debut. He wasn't up to his 12lb hike 16 days later but he's still learning and heavy ground in hot company was a tall order. He was help up out the back too in a race where it paid to be handy and he looks way overpriced back here after a little break at 10/1. A half brother to Balthazar King, better ground will help this afternoon. Wicked Spice - 1pt e/w @ 10/1
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 20, 2015 12:18:07 GMT
Rein Man / Friday 20th February 2015 / 10:18 Exeter 16:50
Salmanazar is very tempting today but he's really not to be relied upon as far as getting over the first goes. He was backed last time though and something is telling me to have faith. Either way, Big Society is just 2 points shorter but far more reliable at 13/2 and he should get a nice tow through from Top Wood, the likely pace angle. It shouldn't be a hotly contested lead so racing prominently, as he tends to do, will be no bad thing and Brennan hasn't been afraid to take it up in the past. He has plenty of stamina at this trip and I fancy they'll make use of that. A course winner, he will have needed his reappearance here when 3rd off a couple of pounds lower and then probably found 3 and a half furlongs further a touch too far last time. Big Society - 1pt e/w @ 13/2
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 21, 2015 8:08:37 GMT
Saturday 21st February
Rein Man / Friday 20th February 2015 / 19:06 Lingfield 13:45
Lots of races but few bets today. At Lingfield Go Far could have a race fitness edge on a few rated higher than him. Ryan Moore up is a big positive and so too the fact he often races prominently. Not always, and he has won from numerous different positions, but Moore will have had a look and seen there's not a bundle of pace on. That is putting me off Foxtrot Romeo, who could be set for a bold show at the AW championships, and so too Intransigent who wants a test at this trip. Alben Star should go close but I'm more tempted with the 9/1 about the selection and he does have form ahead of Foxtrot Romeo, for all it was subsequently reversed. He has a weight pull though and the yard and jockey have a decent strike rate together. Go Far - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 Newcastle 14:55
The Eider is a super renewal and the 2 previous winners have to be given a serious chance. There are a few prices to get stuck into though. Sharney Sike needs some improvement to win this but he does like it here and 40/1 is too big. He tends to fold though when taken on for the lead and there is bundles of pace on. First up I like Milborough who had this mentioned as a target after his Carlisle win. Most winners of the Eider of late have carried over 11 stone and class tends to tell. He carries 10-13 which is close enough. He came down at the 1st last time out which could be no bad thing as he still looks feasibly treated and his form is rock solid. 2nd behind subsequent winner Ardkilly Witness in April and ahead of Foxrock and behind Shutthefrontdoor at Cheltenham, he is a lovely price at 22/1. Milborough - 1pt e/w @ 22/1
I also want to give course winner Tutchec a chance at 16/1, though in truth I hoped that would be bigger. He shapes for a proper test and the yard are flying. Tutchec - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 Kempton 15:45
The Betbright Chase has so many on the shortlist that a pin might be needed but then I saw Tenor Nivernais at 14/1. It's been a frustrating week or so personally but that is a silly price and hopefully he can land a bit of a touch. I really like him. He came back off a long absence to win in the shadow of the post here in November and is just 3lb higher today. 3 subsequent starts have seen him run well but look desperate for 3 miles and here he is. Tenor Nivernais - 1pt e/w @ 14/1
I wanted to put up 1 of the Tom George pair, a yard that knows how to win this, with preference for Chartreux. He likes to race prominently and that could suit as there's no guaranteed pace on now What A Warrior has been pulled out. However, at the prices Lost Legend looks a nice bet. A P can't do the weight on Tap Night, who I put up last time at 25/1. That yard are flying but he has become frustrating and I'm not sure he wants 3 miles, even this easy 3. So McCoy is on Lost Legend who may want better ground but he won here on reappearance and I fancy he really wants 3 miles. Just 2lb higher today, last time was disappointing but a return to Kempton, where he's twice been successful, could suit at a generous looking 16/1. He's half the bet of the Williams horse mind. Lost Legend - 1pt e/w @ 16/1
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