|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 10, 2014 11:51:17 GMT
14:50 Monday 10th November Racing Tips - 10/11/2014
There's not a great deal of pace on in the 7 furlong handicap at Kempton and therefore the otherwise likeable Kung Hei Fat Choy and Good Luck Charm may just struggle. Holiday Magic is not an attractive proposition at 9/4 on handicap debut for all he looks well treated and I want to find something to take him on with. Angel Flores will have this run to suit and can sit prominently but I don't have ultimate faith in her jockey (haven't really seen enough of him) and 7/1 is short enough. Shady McCoy is very nearly the one away from soft groind but yard form and his draw are the worries. Best bet is Smart Salute at 9/1 for a yard in top form. He's been gelded since his last run and hasn't gone badly on 2 starts here, the latest of which came in a far better race when breaking poorly. He's well treated based upon his staying on efforts over 6 furlongs in July and the ground was probably on the easy side last time. He can, and hopefully will, sit prominently from stall 3 and should definitely be involved. Kempton 14.50 - Smart Salute 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 11, 2014 7:12:29 GMT
14:40 Tuesday 11th November Racing Tips - 11/11/2014
Volnay De Thaix looks a lovely prospect this season but there are a few unexposed types for him to deal with today and they look more attractive propositions at the prices. Moujik Borget is back to his last winning mark which came on reappearance last term so he must be considered. I prefer the Charlie Longsdon pair though and Noel Fehily presumably chooses Cadoudoff. He was well held off a 4lb higher mark in the Fred Winter last term, his 2nd disappointing effort at Cheltenham. He is feasibly treated on his other 2 UK starts though and should have plenty more to come as a 4/5 year old this term. He failed to give weight to Baradari at Newbury but that effort says he has plenty of scope off this mark and he should appreciate this step up in trip at 12/1. Huntingdon 14.10 - Cadoudoff 1pt e/w
Another likeable Henderson sort goes in the next in the form of My Wigwam Or Yours. At a similar price though I'm far keener on the chances of Ned Stark who is having just his 3rd start under rules and his first over fences. Described as a chaser in the making by connections, he gets 9lb from the other market leader and that should be plenty based upon his Mosspark form. His novice win last time doesn't teach us much and there's every chance he'll need this but I'd have him as favourite and 3/1 is generous enough. Huntingdon 14.40 - Ned Stark 2pt win
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 13, 2014 7:06:13 GMT
18:50 Thursday 13th November Racing Tips - 13/11/2014
There's not a great deal of pace on in the mile handicap (class 5) at Kempton this evening and that will make life tough for plenty of these. Ghosting was a close 2nd to subsequent scorer Holiday Magic on his last start at this track and did well to make up so much ground from off the pace. He was ridden more prominently last time at Wolves, in a better race than this, and I fancy he'll go close to losing his maiden tag today at 8/1. He's drawn 9 so it will be tempting to drop in but he shouldn't be right out the back, especially given how he was ridden last time, and his form is about the best on offer. Kempton 18.50 - Ghosting 1pt e/w
At Ludlow I'm looking forward to seeing Gorsky Island over a trip over fences, especially with the yard going well. Also from a yard in good form and at a more appealing price is Kingcora. He won on very soft ground in France so should the rain come he will likely handle it and his Bangor win at the end of last season suggested more to come off this sort of mark. He was poor last time but needed his run on reappearance last term and a return to further shold suit. He is easily pick of the prices at 9/1. Ludlow 14.00 - Kingcora 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 14, 2014 8:44:09 GMT
16:05 Friday 14th November Racing Tips - 14/11/2014
Two horses in the McManus colours I put up at the end of last term were Festive Affair and Bold Henry and I like them both today. The latter is certainly well treated but has a bit to prove on his first chase start in 2 years. Festive Affair will certainly appreciate this return to shorter and he's a nice bet at 7/1. He didn't seem to get the trip last time here but ran well and his Newbury win prior to that saw him beat a couple of 140 horses. He was in receipt of weight but 132 makes him well treated today on ground he seems to like. Shangani looks worth support too at a very generous 25/1. He ran well here last year at the festival in the last race on day 1 off 2lb higher over a trip that probably just stretches him. This will be sharp enough but there'll be a good pace and if the rain comes he'll shorten right up for a yard in form. Cheltenham 13.50 - Festive Affair 1pt e/w Cheltenham 13.50 - Shangani 1pt e/w
The excellent novice chase on the card looks a fair betting heat given who is favourite and I'll take Champagne West who gets weight from a few of these and who should take some stopping if only slightly improving on his hurdles form as breeding suggests he should. His form, 10 lengths behind Beat That, 1 length ahead of Deputy Dan and not beaten far in the Albert Bartlett, is very strong and the market leader hasn't won for nearly 3 years. Dell' Arca is clearly a danger but I have him a little below Champagne West on hurdles ability and the selection is bigger in the market at 4/1. Cheltenham 14.25 - Champagne West 1pt win
In the last I like Morito Du Berlais. He had a wind op in the summer and won very well last time beating The Nephew. Whilst that runner is better over fences, his form suggests a mark of 120 for the selection is very fair and there should be more to come. He has the tongue tie reapplied which is worth noting and I'm not sure what to make of it. I'm basing the race around River Deep, who is very likeable, and who is 16lb worse off with Cloudy Beach so he must get a mention. Morito Du Berlais was also in that Newton Abbot race and has a 10lb pull for a thrashing but he was sent off the same price as River Deep so wasn't unfancied. He looks a new horse after a wind-op and hopefully they go a proper gallop here to give him the test he needs at 10/1. Cheltenham 16:05 - Morito Du Berlais 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 15, 2014 6:12:25 GMT
15:15 Saturday 15th November Racing Tips - 15/11/2014
If they doll off 4 fences for the feature today then Buywise should be a 7/2 shot! However, his jumping must be a worry and he's short enough. Caid Du Berlais loves Cheltenham and I fancy he'll finish in the places, as ever, at 14/1. He perhaps didn't get home at Galway but drops a furlong and a half in trip and the Old Course is a little speedier so that should suit. He's off the same mark as when staying on over hurdles in the Martin Pipe and has always been thought of as a top chaser by connections. Graded quality horses win this and the fact he was sent off 100/30 for a Grade 2 chase at Doncaster is a good sign. That also flags up Ericht who was sent off favourite for the Champion Bumper a few years back. No stranger in Graded races, he's not lived up to expectation but is potentially chucked in off 137 if putting his best foot forward. He rarely does that but he was staying on over half a furlong shorter here last time, has a weight pull with the top 2, and is well worth a play at 18/1. Cheltenham 14.30 - Caid Du Berlais 1pt e/w Cheltenham 14.30 - Ericht 1pt e/w
A few of the old boys are very tempting for the Cheltenham staying chase but younger horses do have a decent record in this and a few might need the run. Pigeon Island is particularly interesting at 18/1 given his liking for the track and 10lb claimer up top. I'm surprised Golden Chieftain is available at 12/1 given the manner of his festival win off just 2lb lower last year. He has struggled off marks into the 140s since but looks really well treated now and is worth a go at this sort of trip. He didn't get past the first fence last time but will have benefitted from his run on reappearance at this track. He's easily pick of the prices. Cheltenham 13.50 - Golden Chieftain 1pt e/w
The handicap hurdle looks a belter full of unexposed types. Big Easy is fascinating and I'm surprised he's not favourite but, equally, am not rushing to back him after the Cesarewitch. I'm not sure why. Katkeau could win this easily and this looks more his trip than last time, for all that was 600 odd days ago. The one I want to back is arguably least well treated of the bunch but I fancy Vivaldi Collonges is pretty good. He's 20lb higher than his last handicap start (and win), which came when bolting up at Ayr. He then ran to his current mark over course and distance in a novice race last time and there may just be a little more to come with a run under his belt. He's a half brother to an Albert Bartlett winner and can definitely get involved at 6/1. Cheltenham 15.00 - Vivaldi Collonges 1pt e/w
One bet at Wetherby comes in the form of War Singer. He looked held off his mark on the flat prior to winning at Goodwood last month in a first time visor so the headgear brought out improvement and there's every chance he can progress over hurdles on first start in this sphere in over a year. That came for David Pipe and he's very well treated on the peak of his form for that yard. Cut is no problem and though he was a little below par for his last flat start, we know he's fit and ready for this at 8/1. Wetherby 15.15 - War Singer 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 16, 2014 6:02:45 GMT
15:15 Sunday 16th November Racing Tips - 16/11/2014
Nothing screams out in the Cheltenham opener but I'm semi keen on a couple of last time out Carlisle winners in Captain Clayton and Cultram Abbey whilst Jayo Time is at the top of the shortlist. I've just seen the first of those is a non runner but will stick with Dr Richard Newland's charge who has won well on 2 starts for the yard and who will handle the conditions here based upon those 2 runs. This is a great deal tougher and he's up 19lb since the first of those wins but he's yet to really be tested and could be anything. I'm not quite sure why he's as big as 8/1 for all this is competetive. Cheltenham 13.15 - Jayo Time 1pt e/w
Commisioned looks a big price on the card but I get Ferguson horses wrong for fun. Dunraven Storm is tempting but, of the 3 tight races in the middle of the card, the sole bet to have could be Module at 6/1. I can see Uxizandre going well from the front but he does chuck in the odd stinker and there's every chance he needs further. So too Module and he has to give weight but he's 1lb better off with the likely favourite than he would be in a handicap and will relish a test. His Queen Mother form is probably strong enough for him to go and win this and he should be helped by tracking the freewheeling Uxizandre for a yard in form at 6/1. Nicky Richards is also flying but Simply Ned has to prove he likes it here against a couple of course lovers. Cheltenham 14.40 - Module 1pt e/w
Tom Scudamore had a great day yesterday for David Pipe and they saddle Baltimore Rock who I think has a great chance in the Greatwood. He's the shortest of the 3 on the shortlist though and the 20/1 about Katgary should be taken whilst it lasts. Sam Winner and Caid Du Berlais both won for Nicholls in a first time tongue tie yesterday and he opts for the same tactic with Katgary today. He would likely have won the Fred Winter without being hampered off 7lb lower and the form has worked out very well, with 6 or 7 subsequent winners coming out of the race. He stopped to nothing after tanking through the race last time but hopefully the little 't' will fix that. If he has a shot though then so too must Baradari at 16/1. He is only 1lb higher than for his flying home effort in the Fred Winter and made a pleasing reappearance at Ascot when not far behind Sign Of A Victory, albeit flattered by the distance. He travelled beautifully and I think was just outpaced on the good ground. Today's test should suit much better. Cheltenham 15.15 - Katgary 1pt e/w Cheltenham 15.15 - Baradari 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 17, 2014 10:06:17 GMT
14:20 Monday 17th November Racing Tips - 17/11/2014
Just the one today in the form of Malanos at Leicester. He's a former course and distance winner and although that came on quick ground, he loves a bit of cut and there should be plenty of that looking at the forecast. In fact connections talked of the Fred Winter 'as long as there was rain' at one point so must think he's half decent granted the right conditions. The trouble is he had a long lay off and looked well out of sorts prior to that. A recent flat run was ok though and the suggestion is they used that to get him right for this. He looks an interesting price at 14/1 and fancy he'll shorten. Leicester 14.20 - Malanos 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 19, 2014 6:57:54 GMT
18:25 Wednesday 19th November Racing Tips - 19/11/2014
Captain Cat ominously returns to the all weather today and is unsurprisingly at the top of the market. 11/4 looks generous too and is tempting. There are some other improvers though and Sloane Avenue and Prince's Trust have to be right up there on the shortlist. There's a bit of pace but not bundles and it may be hard to get into this from out the back so the aforementioned pair will have to do a bit from wide draws. Tenor is drawn 1 and will be suited by tracking the pace, likely to come from Premio Loco and perhaps Baltic Night and should have this run to suit. He is 3 from 6 on the all weather barring his run here in September when he bled and is incredibly progressive. A Listed winner, freshened up since the Cambridgeshire, he was 2nd on his side at Newmarket and looks too big to ignore at 12/1 today. Kempton 18.25 - Tenor 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 19, 2014 6:58:55 GMT
Date Pts
October
47
September
37
2014
384
ÂŁ10 on all tips this year would have returned a monster ÂŁ3840 in profit!
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 20, 2014 7:02:24 GMT
18:40 Thursday 20th November Racing Tips - 20/11/2014
Elbereth looks a decent price at Kempton from 1lb out of the weights. Sent off at 7/4 on handicap debut, she was easily beaten but had run to this sort of mark at the very least when winning over course and distance in August and I'm inclined to put a line through last time and give her another shot at 8/1. There was little pace on when she won and so too today and she can sit handy from stall 4. Andrew Balding is going well and this filly has a stone less on her back today, which should help given her trainer's remarks that she is still weak. I'm Fraam Govan will be thereabouts back here with the tongue tie on but looks priced up about right. Kempton 17.40 - Elbereth 1pt e/w
This is a tougher race than Unforgiving Minute won last time but he is extremely progressive on the all weather and will be tough to beat today. However, Jodies Jem is a more attractive proposition at 20/1, especially given an excellent run last time from a no hoper of a draw. Out of stall 7 today, he is a bigger price and yet has been eased 1lb. I'm excited about this bet, for all he hasn't won for nearly 2 years! He had to go wide the whole way last time but finished only 1/2 a length behind Knight Owl, who enjoyed a much better trip (albeit from further back), and yet the latter is 5/1. Ishikawa, who has a chance to make all here, will hopefully have company for the lead from Glorius Sun and Jack Of Diamonds as the selection needs a bit of pace to aim at. Kempton 18.40 - Jodies Jem 1pt e/w
At Wincanton, Roberto Pegasus must have a great chance on what could be his last hurdles start before tackling fences. He is just 3lb higher than when a 12 length 6th at Cheltenham behind Quick Jack, a race that has worked out very well. It's worth noting he was 1/2 a length behind Vibrato Valtat who was racing off a lowish mark at the time. A soft ground winner on the flat, he's clearly at home with cut and gets that today. This trip looks his bag given he won over 11 furlongs on the flat and relished a first go at 2 and a half miles when romping home in what was a weakish maiden at Worcester, the first and last time Jamie Moore rode him. Easy to back last time, he may have needed it but is a nice price at 11/1 this afternoon. Wincanton 14.25 - Roberto Pegasus 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 21, 2014 9:03:07 GMT
14:40 Friday 21st November Racing Tips - 21/11/2014
The Skyfarmer hails from a yard in scintillating form and he achieved a decent level over hurdles. He has something to find on ratings over those smaller obstacles with those at the top of the market but is very tempting at 4/1. I'm surprised Killala Quay isn't a clear favourite here though and has to go up at 2/1. He was only beaten 6 lengths by a machine in the Neptune and also beat Beat That last term. Nothing comes close to that form wise, certainly not Puffin Billy who was a touch disappointing on chase debut for all he'll come on for the run. Killala Quay does lack consistency, and that's the worry, but should take some beating if anywhere near on song. Ascot 13.30 - Killala Quay 2pt win
Niceonefrankie returns to the race he won last year off the same mark. He struggled off a higher mark subsequently, the sort of mark he'd found too much in his 2nd season over fences, but is more than capable at this level. Al Alfa will lead and could have company from the ever keen Lysino and that's essential for the selection who hasn't looked out of place over 3 miles. That's what is putting me off Drumshambo who may not appreciate a test at this trip, though his trainer thinks he'll like it as he gets older. He's in a similar position to that of his stable companion last term, paying for a good debut chase season but now returning well handicapped. I'll take the fav at 5/2 though. Ascot 14.40 - Niceonefrankie 1pt win
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 22, 2014 9:01:12 GMT
15:35 Saturday 22nd November Racing Tips - 22/11/2014
Zamdy Man must go up at 20/1 back at a track he's had his last 2 wins at. The key here is him being able to dictate as he has for his last 3 wins and I was hoping Aurore D'Estruval wasn't going to be declared. She will sit close up and is very talented. The New One is a horrid price for all he's comfortably the best in this and should really be taken on with something. A modest pace here may not suit him and I can see him beaten on testing ground. Zamdy Man is better than his rating of 150 and will love the ground, I just hope he's left alone up top. Haydock 13.50 - Zamdy Man 1pt e/w
Oscar Rock has to be better than a rating off 138 now in handicap company. He's been disappointing in Graded company but is yet to finish out of the top 3 in 8 starts and is said to prefer soft ground. He looks every bit the 3 miler and is a nice prospect this afternoon at 16/1. Uncle Jimmy is ultra consistent on easy ground and should go close today but slight preference at the weights is for Upswing who will relish a test here and the more rain the better. His Champagne West form (not to mention his Whisper/ Saphir Du Rheu form) is excellent and he didn't look fully wound up last time when hammered by Uncle Jimmy. It would have been quick enough that day though and the yard are in much better nick now. He shouldn't go unbacked at 12/1. Haydock 14.25 - Oscar Rock 1pt e/w Haydock 14.25 - Upswing 1pt e/w
The last on the C4 card has a couple on the sortlist (Rose Of The Moon is just too risky a proposition for all he loves it fresh). Midnight Appeal had his last time out form boosted when Grandad's Horse won yesterday and he'll relish this easier ground. Renard is another soft ground lover who should come on for the run last time but the niggling worry is he's twice been pulled up here. Midnight Appeal has Tom Bellamy, who rode him last time, taking off 5lb and is very well handicapped, just a few pounds higher than his last win, which also came on testing ground. He's the sort of horse that could easily get backed on his next few starts without getting his head in front but is worth a go at 8/1. Haydock 15.35 - 1pt e/w
It's a much better Amlin than we saw last year and Al Ferof will find this tougher, especially giving weight all round to some decent rivals. The top of the betting looks about right for all I'd have Al Ferof a little longer but Bury Parade sticks out at the other end of the market. He made great progress last year whilst still advertising his quirks. He was disappointing at Sandown on his last start but won here on reappearance over a more suitable trip and clearly handles cut. He has the speed for this drop to 2 miles 3 and 12/1 looks generous. Ascot 14.05 - Bury Parade 1pt e/w
Bellenos must have a great chance of reversing form with Ulck Du Lin back at Ascot. He has a 9lb pull with the favourite and should be much better with a little juice in the ground this afternoon. He shaped like he needed the run last time too, travelling well before finding less than expected and he came on bundles for his first start last term. If there's a nap on the day then this is it at 5/1. Ascot 15.15 - Bellenos 2pt win
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 23, 2014 11:48:35 GMT
14:25 Sunday 23rd November Racing Tips - 23/11/2014
Owega Star is very much pick of the Troytown prices at 20/1 with Davy Russell up for the first time. A 140 rated hurdler, his novice chase form suggests he can be very competitive from a mark of 134 and he's had a couple of nice preps for this. A course winner, he looks well worth a go back over 3 miles. Living Next Door would have gone very close in the race 12 months ago but for falling at the last. He is 12lb higher here but more experienced and looks a worthy favourite with the excellent Barry Geraghty up. His Cheltenham form is solid given the well-held Shutthefrontdoor came out of that and won an Irish National off 142 (Living Next Door is rated 131). He held Rogue Angel at Cheltenham too and is getting 1lb from him this afternoon at 12/1. Navan 14.25 - Owega Star 1pt e/w Navan 14.25 - Living Next Door 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 24, 2014 12:31:10 GMT
14:45 Monday 24th November Racing Tips - 24/11/2014
Polly Peachum has beaten L'Unique before and, though the latter technically only has 2lb to find this afternoon in Listed company, the recent run of the former suggests it's a little more than that. Nicky Henderson's mare is 8/11 though and there are going concerns today as it's always been said she's most effective on better ground. Whilst she'll be tough to beat, L'Unique's form is rock solid given she was still travelling well when unseating last time and the 2nd in that was recent scrorer Aubusson. On her Mares Hurdle form she has little to prove in this company and she has won on soft at this track. She stayed 3 miles (and looked to want every bit of it) at Haydock when giving Big Easy nearly a stone and still beating him, and was giving today's favourite 5lb when 2nd to her at Cheltenham. Away from carrying big weights in handicaps, she should be seen to better effect here at 9/2. Kempton 14.10 - L'Unique 1pt win
Real Milan tends to go well fresh and he will appreciate a test here on softish ground for his yard debut. The blinkers are off and he will hopefully let a few others go forward and fight this out up top as dictating will not be possible. A heavy ground winner over 3 miles, he'd probably get further than most of these and that should come into play today with the flying Richard Johnson up for the first time. Kempton 14.45 - Real Milan 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 26, 2014 9:13:29 GMT
19:15 Wednesday 26th November Racing Tips - 26/11/2014
Having quite fancied Out Do last time at Wolves, he's back at the only all weather track he's won at (1 from 1 over course and distance) and looks way over priced at 20/1. There are a few negatives: his run last time on the Tapeta was poor, though he sat relatively close to a decent pace and came widest of all round the home bend. The yard aren't going great guns either, though the horses have been running better recently. I'm willing to put a line through the effort last time and think he'll fair better back here off the same mark he won the Great St Wilfred from. Kempton 19.15 - Out Do 1pt e/w
Over at Wetherby the feature handicap over 2 miles could take a bit of getting given that there's plenty of rain forecast and all of the 6 strong field like to lead or race prominently. I completely see the Tresor De Bontee appeal in that he loves testing ground and the yard are flying. He won first time out last term though and this race comes a little quickly after his first up win this term. He has to prove he can string a couple of runs together in relatively quick succession to be backed at 2/1. I'd have Dunowen Point at about a 3/1 poke so 5/1 looks worth taking. He is a soft ground course and distance winner who has won on heavy over 2 and half miles so should have the stamina reserves required if it turns out to be a test. He looked one to take on last time at Aintree when a fair bit shorter in a hotter race but this is easier and he's much bigger in the market. The yard have had a break too, one that looked needed, and their horses might fair a little better going forward. Wetherby 13.50 - Dunowen Point 2pt win
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 27, 2014 11:54:25 GMT
19:25 Thursday 27th November Racing Tips - 27/11/2014
Oriental Relation hit form about this time last year and was a course and distance winner off 2lb lower. He has struggled up in Listed company on the all weather and back in handicaps on turf since but is a better performer on artificial surfaces and looks well treated. Last time was a touch disappointing here but it was a hot race and the yard were struggling. They were 0-20 this month but have sent out a recent winner and Conor Beasley takes off a further 3lb. I'm worried about the trip as it looks likely we'll see an out and out test but hopefully he won't sit too close to the pace and is worth chancing at 25/1. Panther Patrol is another that looks overpriced but there again Plucky Dip has every right to bot up. Kempton 19.25 - Oriental Relation 1pt e/w
At Newbury I'm really tempted by Carraig Mor on testing ground and think Southfield Theatre is opposable at the prices. Chapolimoss could be an outsider to back on ground he handles and with cheekpieces on. He jumped left at Huntingdon on reappearance and, although he likes it there, he looks worth another go left hand. He got that last time and was poor but this is easier over a more suitable trip. Harry Bannister has been booked for a while and he's very capable. A strong pace looks likely too and this could take some getting which will play to the selection's strengths at 17/2. Newbury 13.00 - Chapolimoss 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 28, 2014 9:03:35 GMT
14:40 Friday 28th November Racing Tips - 28/11/2014
It's a McManus showdown for the 2 and a half mile handicap chase at Newbury and quite rightly Pendra is clear favourite of the 2. He goes fresh and the fact that he is the mount of AP suggests he is ready. McManus's aren't always easy to predict but he has a similar profile to Cantlow when he won this race 12 months ago and is surely well handicapped. Cantlow hasn't really looked himself on 2 starts this term but has been eased 4lb and, now just 4lb higher than when winning 12 months ago, it would be no surprise to see better this afternoon. Geraghty has a super strike rate for the owner and he's decent value at 12/1. Newbury 14.40 - Cantlow 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 29, 2014 9:10:04 GMT
15:00 Saturday 29th November Racing Tips - 29/11/2014
I quite like Avispa in the opener for a yard that have sprouted wings. She won the Mares Bumper at Aintree and ran well on reappearance for her hurdles debut behind Taniokey, who also lines up here. She travelled eye catchingly throughout that before a shaky couple of jumps late on and should reverse the form here. She'll have to come on to beat the rest but has the scope and is a nice price at 7/1. Newbury 12.20 - Avispa 1pt e/w
This is tougher but Tara Road won so well last time out that he should be able to cope with a rise this afternoon. They've worked out how to ride him and he barely came off the bridle last time, in fact Davy Russell did well to win by just 5 lengths. He drops in trip but this will take some getting and his stamina should come into play. He's the nap on the day at 3/1. Newbury 12.50 - Tara Road 2pt win
Far from taking on More Of That, who should win well, there is a fair bit of juice in the price about Lac Fontana. He did nothing but improve last term and has the scope for 3 miles. He's a heavy ground winner and shaped well enough in behind Faugheen on reappearance. Better for that run, this is a different test altogether but I fancy he'll run very well this afternoon at 14/1. Newbury 14.25 - Lac Fontana 1pt e/w
2 for the Hennessy and first up is Fingal Bay. He could be a mid 160's horse over fences and Philip Hobbs can really get them ready. He will have to have because Fingal Bay hasn't been over them for 2 years since running out at Exeter. That was strange, almost inexplicable, and if forgiven he'd have a favouirte's chance this afternoon. He'll appreciate a test in these conditions at 8/1. Given that a couple like to dominate, this should be a proper stamina sapper and Rocky Creek must enter calculations. Merry King catches the eye at 16/1 though given he's carrying less weight than when 5th in this last year and will have a better chance on today's ground. He tends to find something to good but is so consistent and looks one to get your money back with at worst. Newbury 15.00 -Fingal Bay 1pt e/w Newbury 15.00 - Merry King 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Nov 30, 2014 12:07:14 GMT
15:10 Sunday 30th November Racing Tips - 30/11/2014
Lieutenant Colonel and The Tullow Tank are the selections for 2 of the 3 Grade 1's at Fairyhouse this afternoon. What a card it is. Lieutenant Colonel has had the juice taken out of his price though and the Drinmore is such a hot race this year that I can't be too confident about The Tullow Tank, for all it would be magnificent to see Dessie Hughes' last winner follow up. The staying handicap is worth a go and Jupitor is surprisingly big on the exchange. I've been waiting for the bookies to adjust accordingly but as yet they've only pushed up to 12/1. Fill yer boots. He's won at the track and ran a perfect prep for this last time at Punchestown. He will appreciate the extra trip and I've fancied he has a decent handicap in him for a while. The exchange says not today but he's too big to ignore. Last year's 2nd Ipsos Du Berlais can also outrun his odds. Fairyhouse 15.10 - Jupitor 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Dec 1, 2014 8:28:41 GMT
17:20 Monday 1st December Racing Tips - 01/12/2014
Holiday Magic looks opposable at 5/4 at Kempton this afternoon. He will get the pace he needs to aim at over the trip but Wiliam Buick, who has ridden him so well to his last 3 wins, is not on this evening and a 6lb rise for last time looks a little tough. He's progrssive and gutsy but looks short. The 2 to take him on with are both 1 from 1 over course and distance. Brigliadoro won well here on penultimate start and can be forgiven last time back on turf. Perhaps a 7lb rise makes him vulnerable and he's not ideally drawn but is a nice price. Preference is for Evening Attire though at 16/1. He won his first 2 starts for his old team but was poor on debut for William Sttone. Last time was much better though when giving weight to a couple ahead of him and he probably ran to a little higher than his current mark. He should fare even better back here and is well drawn to tuck in off what should be a decent but not breakneck gallop. If Holiday Magic does his usual kick for home then you don't want to be too far away. Kempton 17.20 - Evening Attire 1pt e/w
Neil King's done a super job with Southway Star but she's another I want to take on. This is her 5th start in a little over 3 weeks and the first over hurdles in what is a decent race with a coupe that like it here. Cove is tempting but often finds one too good and I fancy Cannon Fodder will reverse the form of their October run now 11lb better off. The vote goes to Mistral Reine though who is somehow outsider of the field at 14/1. She's been dropped 5lb after a modest reappearance but should come on a bundle for it. The drop probably takes into account her 2 disappointing efforts at the end of last season when making a race ending mistake in March and all but refusing to race in April. There were no signs of that on reappearance though and she's now back to just 1lb higher than her easy win at Fakenham. She could do with it riding pretty soft but either way looks overpriced and Leighton Aspell, who has been on top for both her career wins, is back in the saddle. The yard had a coupe that ran well at Newbury last week too. Plumpton 13.40 - Mistral Reine 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Dec 2, 2014 11:54:38 GMT
15:40 Tuesday 2nd December Racing Tips - 02/12/2014
Quick Tingle mention: Vukovar could be interesting at a price (25/1 currently) but he, like a few, may end up in the Peterborough. I was at Sandown at the end of last week and it was incredibly wet. Even with a dry forecast it will very likely be soft ground and Vukovar is one that should suit 2 miles on soft…but he's not certain to line up. To today: the Wolves feature sees Sagesse returning for Sir Mark Prescott in first time cheekpieces after a dismal effort at Epsom in July. She wouldn't be the first to run a stinker there though and I like her chances form the front here. Rowlestone Lass may have something to say about that but she's not an out and out front runner and Sagesse, who is clearly suited by artificial surfaces, could prove tricky to pass at 10/1. She is yet to race on tapeta but she's very consistent and shouldn't be out of the places. Wolverhampton 15.40 - Sagesse 1pt e/w
Rein Man
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Dec 5, 2014 11:44:41 GMT
Rein Man is currently on holiday; he will be back on Thursday 11th.
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Dec 28, 2014 13:09:33 GMT
Leopardstown 14.55
It's got to be Bob (Boston not Worth) for the Lexus. He didn't get the test he needs last time when the ground was quick enough over 2 and a half and didn't look fully wound up for seasonal bow at Down Royal. The excuses are mounting up but on his form at the end of last season he should probably be favourite for this. Bobs Worth might just need the run as he did on reappearance last term and Road To Riches might find this a different test to last time, for all he could be a reformed horse this term. A couple will not have appreciated the recent rain and Sam Winner doesn't have the tongue tie on, which is a head scratcher. Boston Bob at 11/2 looks the bet. Boston Bob - 1pt @ 11/2
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Dec 29, 2014 9:51:58 GMT
Monday 29th December
Rein Man / Monday 29th December 2014 / 08:48 Newbury 13.05
The opening handicap at Newbury is a bit of a toss up between Rhapando and Desert Joe. The former is a touch shorter currently at 13/2 but that makes sense given he is a last time out winner and should improve for this extra trip. He got better the further he went last time and this ground should not give any cause for concern. He was held when coming down on chase debut but that form has worked out well and a 7lb rise is feasible enough to overcome. Desert Joe shaped nicely last time behind a progressive sort and is back off the same mark, though this is tougher. Rhapando - 1pt e/w @ 13/2 Newbury 15.15
Morito Du Berlais is too short to be siding with in a race where so many can be given chances. Lough Kent looks a big price for this step up in trip, though whether he will have the stamina for it on this ground remains to be seen. Saffron Wells is very interesting back in trip and should run well. The one at a price to side with could well be Tony Star back from a break. He won first up a few years ago and Hobbs has no trouble getting his horses ready. He has only finished out of the money here once in 5 starts and a switch back to hurdling off 1lb higher than his last win in this sphere could be just what he needs. He is often well supported so 12/1 catches the eye here in conditions that should prove ideal. Tony Star - 1pt e/w @ 12/1
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Dec 30, 2014 9:14:48 GMT
Tuesday 30th December
Rein Man / Monday 29th December 2014 / 18:57 Lingfield 14:50
Back to the relative safety of the all weather today. My eyes nearly popped out when I saw Chauvelin available at 4/1 for his 2nd handicap start. He shaped well last time and should come on for it. There are a few front runners with leading claims in the race but they may just cancel each other out up top and Rogar Charlton's 3 year old should appreciate coming off a decent clip. He is a full brother to (Lord) Van Percy, a course and distance winner and winner up to 1 mile 6, and all looks set for a decent run. Chauvelin - 2pt @ 4/1 Lingfield 14:20
Earlier on the card the feature is a mile handicap and pace isn't guaranteed here. Much depends what Tournament does on debut for Seamus Durack but his presence means Sensible Way should have some company up top. That will hopefully give Beach Bar a nice tow into this and will help him settle at 5/2. A course and distance winner on his sole start here, he is back from a break and some fair efforts on turf. The first of them saw him 2nd to Chatez, who won off a 13lb higher mark, and 9lb higher for Beach Bar shouldn't have got to the bottom of his abilities. Rebellious Guest is a danger but I'm not sure he's as well treated as the selection, and he will certainly need them to go pretty quick up top. Beach Bar - 2pt @ 5/2
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Jan 1, 2015 9:40:46 GMT
Thursday 1st January
Rein Man / Wednesday 31st December 2014 / 17:28 Cheltenham 12.45
Pigeon Island is very tempting off his current mark and Jamie Bargary takes off a further 7lb. He is likely to find something too good though and I'm hoping that's Our Father at 7/1. He travelled really kindly on reappearance last time and, though he's won fresh in the past, looked as though he'd come on for the run. A tongue tie goes on and he looks increasingly well treated with Tom Scudamore back up top. He's won here before too. Our Father - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 Cheltenham 13.55
There are 3 on the shortlist for the feature handicap chase. Ericht is an old favourite who ran really disappointingly last time and I'm not sure why. He's a interesting enough price though at 14/1 and well treated (will be very frustrating if he wins having backed him on his last 2 starts). At the prices I have to fancy Champion Court to jump them silly up top in a race where he should be allowed a lead (back off Dineur). Eased a whopping 6lb after a decent enough effort on tacky ground in the Paddy Power, he will be very dangerous under today's claimer if left alone on the front end and 16/1 is too big. His last 2 wins have come over course and distance. Champion Court - 1pt e/w @ 16/1
Another course and distance winner is King Massini who should fare better than when outpaced over shorter on the old course in the Paddy Power, especially if the rain stays away. He had excuses on 3 chase starts last term after his Ludlow win and wasn't beaten far here last time over hurdles. He's a better chaser and 20/1 looks too big. King Massini - 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 Cheltenham 14.30
An old flame is going up for the 3 mile handicap hurdle and hopefully he'll have more pace to aim at than was the case here last time. Sybarite was flying at the finish over 3 miles on the old course last time and the stiffer test that is the new course, plus Southfield Vic and First Fandango ensuring this is a test, should see him go close at 8/1. Ryan Hatch has won on him before and takes off 5lb, countering his 2lb rise for that latest effort. I'm not sure he's handicapped out of things just yet. Sybarite - 1pt e/w @ 8/1
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Jan 2, 2015 12:31:39 GMT
Friday 2nd January
Rein Man / Friday 2nd January 2015 / 11:02 Ayr 15:10
The feature at Ayr is probably a little tougher on paper than the last race Trucking Along won (here) over an extra furlong but he still looks pick of the prices at 8/1. Up 8lb, he has a super record at the track with this jockey and I like his profile coming into this. He probably needed the outing last time back in Ireland after 10 months off but will be better today and isn't handicapped out of things. Trucking Along - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 Ayr 13:35
Earlier on the card, This Thyne Jude has had no money for him and wants further but it is the sort of race that a handicap debutant could fare well in. Weak all round, both the Lucinda Russell handicap debutants catch the eye and there has been money for the mare Alizee De Janeiro but she surely wants better ground than this and was well held behind her stable companion 2 starts ago over course and distance. The selection's bumper debut when 2nd behind the 119 rated Bellgrove was encouraging and he hasn't had too much chance since over an inadequate trip in novice and maiden company. Today could spell similar trip-wise but testing ground will help and 16/1 looks worth a nibble. This Thyne Jude - 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Jan 3, 2015 9:00:16 GMT
Saturday 3rd January
Rein Man / Friday 2nd January 2015 / 22:05 Sandown 13:50
Paul Nicholls seems to win the 2 mile Sandown handicap chase every couple of years so Mr Mole will be a big danger today and may just have turned a corner. He is yet to fulfill potential though and Brick Red has a chance of reversing Exeter form here granted a bit more pace and the former unlikely to get an easy lead. He handles testing ground an there's plenty of rain forecast. Just 9lb higher than when bolting up at Wincanton last term, this mark should be within him and he looks overpriced at 5/1. Brick Red - 1pt @ 5/1 Sandown 15:00
Balgarry is very tempting on his 2nd start back and is very much at the top of the shortlist. He could just burn himself out though and isn't the only front runner in the field. Tanerko Emery is a former Pipe inmate making his debut for Philip Hobbs and he (trainer) can get them ready first up. Not seen since last November, he (horse) loves it here and is just 3lb higher than when a staying on 2nd in the 2013 Imperial Cup. Top weight will be a tough ask but he'll want a good gallop to aim at over this trip. A hood goes on and 11/1 is worth a play. Tanerko Emery - 1pt e/w @ 11/1 Sandown 15:35
If Vino Griego had a visor on he'd be going up but he doesn't, so he doesn't. There's another big handicap in him somewhere though. Unioniste could go off a wacky price and I'm not tempted. Relax will appreciate the rain but I can't take 6/1 given he has disappointed here before and I always get him wrong. All in all a little wager on outsider of the bunch On Trend will be the only interest in the race at 25/1. He is a course and distance winner and, though 5lb out of the handicap, he is still 4lb lower than that win. It came on heavy ground when they went quick up top and that looks likely today. He's not been quite the same since but blinkers may have reinvigorated him and he probably needed it last time. On Trend - 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 Wincanton 14:40
Over at Wincanton, Earthmoves looks fairly treated on handicap debut. It's hard to argue he's chucked in though off 122 and much of the hype probably surrounds the fact he's a half brother to Ptit Zig. I'm happy to swerve at 10/3 and am struggling to split Volt Face and Cadoudoff who both enlist the help of 5lb claimers. The latter hails from a yard in fine form and bumped into a subsequent winner last time, for which he is up 2lb. Probably a little harsher treated, up 3lb for being beaten on reappearance, Volt Face is the bigger price at 9/1 and is open to bags of improvement. 7 lengths behind Josses Hill on debut, he has gone well here before and should come on for the run last time when he would have gone close but for hitting the last. Volt Face - 1pt e/w @ 9/1
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Jan 4, 2015 9:27:23 GMT
Sunday 4th January
Rein Man / Saturday 3rd January 2015 / 19:01 Plumpton 14:50
I'm a touch surprised to see Gorgehous Lliege as outsider of the Venetia Williams pair, the other being Reblis, in the Sussex National. He won well back from a break on penultimate start before being pulled up last time. That was after being hampered on ground probably quicker than ideal. He was 9/2 favourite that day so 8/1 here off the same mark looks generous. Gorgehous Lliege - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 Plumpton 15:55
The last at Plumpton has a very likeable handicap debutant in the form of Twelve Strings but 11/4 is short enough for a horse well held to date over jumps and a last time out faller. Hold The Bucks only wins here and, though he was disappointing at Fontwell last time out, this race lacks strength in depth and a return to Plumpton should see an improved performance. He has cheekpieces on and is a 9 year old that needs a career best but he gets his ground and looks a bit of a bet to nothing at 7/1. Hold The Bucks - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 Plumpton 14:50
Another for the Sussex National and hopefully the winner will be one of them. Reblis has the visor on for the first time and is back in the race he won last year, now 2lb lower. He hasn't shown anything like the same level of form since and did win the race last term off the back of another win but he looks to have been set up for this and 6/1 is fair enough. Reblis - 1pt e/w @ 6/1
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Jan 5, 2015 12:03:40 GMT
Monday 5th January
Rein Man / Sunday 4th January 2015 / 20:04 Musselburgh 15:00
I like Island Heights today at Musselburgh back up in trip and fancy he'll go close. However, Lord Wishes looks a decent bet as outsider of the bunch at 12/1. Now 16lb lower than when a 7 length 3rd behind Aaim To Prosper over hurdles, he looks really well treated for handicap bow over fences. He missed the whole of last season but was well backed on return before shaping as if needing the run. His next start was over that same 2 mile trip which looks on the sharp side as he always seemed likely to get more like 3. He reportedly came back sore after pulling up last time but this is more feasible and, though the excuses are mounting up, he's worth a go at a double figure price. Lord Wishes - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 Musselburgh 14:00
b>Catchthemoonlight probably wants a decent pace to help her settle and shapes as if 2 and a half miles will be her trip. She was below par on soft ground at Carlisle too so today's surface may not be ideal. Her dam won on heavy though and there are 3 front runners in the line up here so she's not without hope in a race that may not take much winning. The 2 at the top of the market see one back from over a year off and the other a winner of a 4-runner race which really fell apart last time. The selection wasn't beaten far last time over course and distance and today's ground, if she handles it, may put a little more emphasis on stamina than was the case last time. 8/1 is worth a pop. Catchthemoonlight - 1pt e/w @ 8/1
|
|