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Post by Kimmy on Feb 23, 2011 8:16:00 GMT
TODAYS SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
3:20 Lud. Rileyev. 3/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
5:25 Lud. Hawkes Point. 0/30. ----------------------------------------------------- 3.CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
5:25 Lud. Hawkes Point. 0/30. ----------------------------------------------------- 4.IRISH TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
3:45 Fairy. Arbor Supreme. 25/1.
3:45 Fairy. The Midnight Club. 15/8. ------------------------------------------------------ 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
3:20 Lud. Rileyev. 3/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM.
2:35 Don. Beshabar. 1/3. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM.
5:25 Lud. Swinkkeel. 8/11.
2:45 Lud. Font. 7/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM.
1:50 Ling. Hoover. 4/7. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM.
7:05 Kemp. Manifiestation. 2/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM.
5:25 Lud. Swingkeel. 8/11. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM.
3:45 Fairy. Siegemaster. 7/2. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
3:20 Lud. Rileyev. 3/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
3:40 Don. Lennon. 40/1.
4:30 Ling. Northern Dare. 13/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. EASIER THIS TIME SYSTEM.
2:10. Lud. Brunston. 13/8.
8:05 Kemp. Clear Praise. 15/8.
2:00 Don. Raya Star. 11/8.
3:40 Don. Wogan. 7/4. -------------------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM.
2:05 Fairy. Accidential Damage. 4/1.
2:40 Fairy. Stephanie Kate. 5/2.
4:45 Fairy. Salsify. 7/2.
6:05 Kemp. Lingfield Bound. 5/1.
3:40 Lud. Golden Duck. 3/1.
4:20 Lud. Ere Alfie. 17/2. ------------------------------------------------------ 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
5:15 Don. Victor Hewgo. 12/1.
205 Fairy. Chaperoned. 3/1.
6:05 Kemp. Negotitation. 7/1. ------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM.
1:50 Ling. Hoover. 4/7.
3:30 Ling. Mongoose Alert. 5/4. -------------------------------------------------- 20.'L' PLATE SYSTEM.
3:45 Fairy. Siegemaster. 7/2. ---------------------------------------------------- 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM.
1:50 Ling. My Mandy. 16/1.
2:20 Ling. Bollywood Style. 6/1.
6:05 Kemp. Lingfield Bound. 5/1.
4:30 Ling. Northern Dare. 13/8. ------------------------------------------------ PLEASE NOTE SELECTIONS CAN CHANGE UNTIL 'COMPLETE?' IS YES. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW. REMEMBER THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. COMPLETE ? YES.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 23, 2011 8:24:41 GMT
HI KIM
The horse that just keeps on giving
Peddlers Cross is one of those rarities in the world of sport – an unbeaten competitor.
These rare beasts don’t tend to last too long but while they are unbeaten they are perfect to side with as confidence is sky high.
Success breeds more success and Peddlers Cross has certainly had plenty of that…
He has won every one of his eight races to date, including an easy victory in his Cheltenham warm-up last week and a win over current ante-post favourite Binocular back in November.
Crucially, he also has form at Cheltenham having won the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s festival.
What’s more, history appears to be on his side…
You see, eight of the last 11 Champion Hurdle winners were priced at 10/1 or shorter…
And 18 of the last 20 were in the first six in the betting.
Now, Donald McCain’s horse is currently fourth in the betting and is one of only four horses widely available at 10/1 or shorter.
Of the other three, one is Binocular who disappointed on his Cheltenham prep and lost to Peddlers Cross on their only previous meeting…
One is my friend and yours Hurricane Fly who, while dangerous, has never ran in Britain before, let alone at Cheltenham…
And one is Menorah, who is potentially the biggest threat but doesn’t have quite as impressive a CV (in my un-humble opinion) as our boy.
So, get over to Paddy Power, grab yourself £50 worth of free bets and back Peddlers Cross to win the Champion Hurdle at 11/2.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 23, 2011 12:49:31 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
3.20 Ludlow - Golden Duck - EACH WAY BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 23, 2011 12:52:12 GMT
KIMMY
I did mention on this BLOG yesterday that I would be happy with just the one winner as it looked a tricky day. That winner came with ‘Pak Jack’ at 13/2 which was big enough to give a level stakes profit. The Daily Advisory Service had a good 12/1 winner (forecast at 20/1) with ‘Irish Jugger’ who despite being shuffled back ealry on switched to the inside and made good progress to just get in front on the line.
Today’s suggestions on the BLOG are as follows: -
Ludlow 3.20 No.5 Trooper Clarence Ludlow 3.50 No.4 Bobert The Brave (not run for 515 days, longshot) Doncaster 4.10 No.13 Wild Desert
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 24, 2011 8:26:43 GMT
Re: Systems Selections, Emails Etc. « Reply #120 Yesterday at 8:16am »
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 24, 2011 8:36:53 GMT
TODAYS SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG.
SOME SYSTEMS FROM TODAY 'NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.' THIS IS BEST PRICE AT TIME OF POST. WILL ALLOW 10/11 AS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THESE WILL GO OFF AT 1/1 OR BETTER. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
5:30 Ayr. Dark Glacier. 11/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 3.CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
5:30 Ayr. Dark Glacier. 11/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 4.IRISH TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
3:30 Th. Skorcher. 12/1.
3:30 Th. Bishopsfurze. 6/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
4:40 Hunt. Decent Lord. 11/8. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM. (NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.)
2:00 Hunt. Line Freedom. 7/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM. (NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.)
2:40 South. Eton Fable. 10/11. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM.
2:10 South. Mazovian. 2/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM.
3:35 Hunt. Minella Class. 8/13.
2:50 Ayr. Flinty Bay. 1/2. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM. (NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.)
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
8:40 Kemp. Reachforthebucks. 1/3. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
5:20 South. Positivity. 13/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. EASIER THIS TIME SYSTEM. (NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.)
None. -------------------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM.
6:10 Kemp. Swift Bird. 11/8.
7:10 Kemp. April Fool. 9/4.
2:10 South. Deliberation. 11/4.
2:10 South. Take Your Partner. 3/1.
4:50 South. Ubenkor. 9/2.
4:50 South. Muqalad. 9/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
4:40 Hunt. Just The Job. 7/1.
5:40 Kemp. Stoneacregarth. 6/1.
7:10 Kemp. April Fool. 9/4.
4:50 South. Ubenkor. 9/2.
3:30 Th. Hidden Cyclone. 5/4. ------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM.(NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.)
5:00 Ayr. Noir Et Vert. 5/2.
5:30 Ayr. Dark Glacier. 11/8. -------------------------------------------------- 20.'L' PLATE SYSTEM.
5:30 Ayr. Dark Glacier. 11/8.
3:30 Th. Bishopsfurze. 7/4.
---------------------------------------------------- 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM.
3:15 South. Dart. 9/1.
7:10 Kemp. Northern Dare. 15/2. ------------------------------------------------ PLEASE NOTE SELECTIONS CAN CHANGE UNTIL 'COMPLETE?' IS YES. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW. REMEMBER THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. COMPLETE ? YES.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 24, 2011 12:19:55 GMT
Hi again Kimmy Just a quick email today..
I have two free bets for you one to back and one to lay.. Back This horse 3.15 Southwell Number 4 - Luck Of The Draw Lay this horse 4.50 Southwell Number 9 - Spinning Ridge
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 24, 2011 12:20:27 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
3.15 Southwell - Luck of The Draw - WIN BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 24, 2011 12:25:33 GMT
hI kIMMY
National Hunt Favourites who failed to finish – how do they perform next time out?
Having researched and written around 500 articles in the past few years, I am going to revisit an area I explored a few years ago. I will be looking into horses that were favourites last time out in a National Hunt race, but failed to finish the course. Hence they either fell, were unseated, pulled up, refused to race etc.
The data for this piece was collected from the beginning of 2002. All profits and losses have been calculated to £1 level stakes.
Let us firstly look at the overall statistics – so all horses in their next race that had in their most recent race started favourite, but failed to finish:
Bets 3190
Wins 506
Strike rate 15.9%
Profit / loss –£402.85
ROI –12.6%
A loss of 12.6% is not a bad starting point, especially as this could improved upon using Betfair, Betfair SP or BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed). Comparing a loss of 12% to the figure for ALL NH beaten favourites LTO is interesting, as the overall figure for beaten favs is around –14%. Therefore, beaten favourites that failed to finish LTO are slightly better investments than your ‘average’ beaten favourite.
Let us breakdown the races LTO into chases, hurdle races and bumpers for favourites that failed to complete. The figures for their next run make interesting reading: Race type LTO Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit / loss ROI% Chase 340 2050 16.6 -£89.31 -4.4 Hurdle 163 1121 14.5 -£315.64 -28.2 NHF 3 19 15.8 +£2.10 +11.1
Not surprisingly there were very few bumper favourites that failed to finish last time out. The interesting comparison is with the non-finishers in chases and hurdle races last time. Horses that failed to complete the course in a chase last time out have lost just 4.4% if backing all such runners on their next start. Last time favourites in hurdle races that failed to finish look laying potential, or at the very least eliminated for win betting purposes.
With over 2000 qualifiers from LTO chases, it seemed likely to me that we may be able to push this into profit using some other logical filters. For the rest of the article I will focusing solely on the LTO chase qualifiers as they look to have the best potential in terms of profitable angles. I decided to see starting price next time out made any difference: Price Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit / loss ROI% Evens or less 43 76 55.6 -£6.75 -8.9 11/10 – 2/1 58 178 32.6 -£24.38 -13.7 9/4 – 7/2 78 350 22.3 -£48.20 -13.8 4/1 – 11/2 62 396 15.7 -£45.50 -11.5 6/1 – 9/1 65 433 15.0 +£104.50 +24.1 19/2 – 16/1 27 383 7.0 -£15.00 -3.9 18/1+ 7 234 3.0 -£54.00 -23.1
Looking at the prices, the stats seem to suggest to look for horses that are priced between 6/1 and 9/1 in their next race. In fact from 6/1 to 16/1 the results have been much better than one would expect.
The next factor I decided to look at was age: Age Wins Runs Strike Rate Profit / loss ROI 4 2 15 13.3 -£11.47 -76.5 5 29 119 24.4 +£29.88 +25.1 6 65 305 21.3 +£40.38 +13.2 7 80 510 15.7 -£87.16 -17.1 8 75 446 16.8 +£13.90 +3.1 9 47 325 14.5 +£0.40 +0.1 10 28 194 14.4 -£19.10 -9.9 11+ 14 136 10.3 -£56.14 -41.3
Younger horses (aged 5 to 6) have the best strike rate and they have combined to make a profit. At the other end of the age scale, it seems best to avoid horses aged 11 or older. Their strike rate is much poorer at roughly 1 win in 10, with losses of over 40%.
Next stop for the LTO Chase runners – days off the course since that losing run when favourite: Days off track Wins Runs Strike Rate Profit / loss ROI 0-7 25 121 20.7 -£26.31 -21.7 8-14 46 302 15.2 -£101.77 -33.7 15-21 47 294 16.0 -£47.46 -16.1 22-49 107 596 18.0 +£70.16 +11.8 50-99 42 246 17.1 +£61.81 +25.1 100+ 73 491 14.9 -£45.74 -9.3
This is very interesting – horses that return to the track fairly quickly (21 days or less) do quite poorly. Conversely, combining all horses off the track for more than 3 weeks would have actually yielded a profit of £86.24.
My next area of research was to look at the LTO chase splitting into more specific race types: LTO Race Wins Runs Strike Rate Profit / loss ROI Handicap 202 1411 14.3 -£110.84 -7.9 Non handicap 138 639 21.6 +£21.53 +3.4 Maiden chase 3 33 9.1 -£22.13 -67.1 Novice chase 94 555 16.9 -£91.07 -16.4 Graded/Listed chase 28 122 23.0 +£6.05 +5.0
Horses that raced in Class 1 company LTO (Graded/Listed events) produced a small profit; as did ALL non handicap races. Horses that were favourite LTO and failed to finish in a Novice Chase have under-performed compared with the overall figures.
So what can be gleaned from this research? What I would say is that beaten favourites last time out that failed to finish in a chase, cannot be dismissed from calculations next time out. Using the other variables / filters has helped to pinpoint profitable areas so there should be some value when finding horses that match the ‘positives’.
For the system players out there you may want to consider this system which uses some of the positive factors noted:
Rules:
1. LTO favourite in a chase
2. Failed to finish LTO
3. Days since last run 22 to 99
4. Age 5yo to 9yo
5. Raced in Non handicap LTO
The results for this ‘system’ would have produced the following results:
Bets 218
Wins 51
Strike rate 23.4%
Profit +£56.09
ROI +25.7%
Hence a very decent return on investment, although an average of 25 qualifiers per year is likely to put many punters off.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 24, 2011 13:14:01 GMT
Hi Kimmy
There were no winners on the BLOG yesterday with none of the three races having selections good enough.
Here are today’s selections: –
Southwell 3.15 No.5 Calculating & No.6 Shifting Gold Southwell 4.50 No.5 Amno Dancer Huntingdon 2.30 No.4 Coeur De Lionne
In the first race the two horses I am dutching are both decent prices because the favourite it going for a four timer and could be a very short price. At Huntingdon ‘Coeur De Lionne’ might not be good enough today but at the price it might just be worth the risk.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 25, 2011 9:33:37 GMT
TODAYS SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG. SOME SYSTEMS FROM TODAY 'NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.' THIS IS BEST PRICE AT TIME OF POST. WILL ALLOW 10/11 AS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THESE WILL GO OFF AT 1/1 OR BETTER. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM. None. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM. 5:30 Ayr. Dark Glacier. 11/8. WON 15/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 3.CHAMPIONS SYSTEM. 5:30 Ayr. Dark Glacier. 11/8. WON 15/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 4.IRISH TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM. 3:30 Th. Skorcher. 12/1. 3RD.3:30 Th. Bishopsfurze. 6/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 5. QUICK SYSTEM. 4:40 Hunt. Decent Lord. 11/8. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM. (NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.) 2:00 Hunt. Line Freedom. 7/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM. None. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM. (NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.) 2:40 South. Eton Fable. 10/11. WON. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM. 2:10 South. Mazovian. 2/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM. 3:35 Hunt. Minella Class. 8/13. 2:50 Ayr. Flinty Bay. 1/2. WON. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM. (NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.) None. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM. 8:40 Kemp. Reachforthebucks. 1/3. WON. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM. 5:20 South. Positivity. 13/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM. None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM. None. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. EASIER THIS TIME SYSTEM. (NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.) None. -------------------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM. 6:10 Kemp. Swift Bird. 11/8. 7:10 Kemp. April Fool. 9/4. 2:10 South. Deliberation. 11/4. 2:10 South. Take Your Partner. 3/1. WON. 4:50 South. Ubenkor. 9/2. 4:50 South. Muqalad. 9/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM. 4:40 Hunt. Just The Job. 7/1. 2ND.5:40 Kemp. Stoneacregarth. 6/1. WON 7/1. 7:10 Kemp. April Fool. 9/4. 4:50 South. Ubenkor. 9/2. 3:30 Th. Hidden Cyclone. 5/4. WON 13/8. ------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM.(NEW TRIAL NO ODDS ON.) 5:00 Ayr. Noir Et Vert. 5/2. 5:30 Ayr. Dark Glacier. 11/8. WON 15/8. -------------------------------------------------- 20.'L' PLATE SYSTEM. 5:30 Ayr. Dark Glacier. 11/8. WON 15/8. 3:30 Th. Bishopsfurze. 7/4. ---------------------------------------------------- 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM. 3:15 South. Dart. 9/1. 7:10 Kemp. Northern Dare. 15/2. ------------------------------------------------ PLEASE NOTE SELECTIONS CAN CHANGE UNTIL 'COMPLETE?' IS YES. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW. REMEMBER THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. COMPLETE ? YES.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 25, 2011 9:47:07 GMT
I HAVE RECEIVED A NUMBER ON PM’S ASKING IF I CAN POST THE SELECTIONS EARLIER. I AM AFRAID THIS IS NOT ALWAYS POSSIBLE BUT WHAT I CAN DO IS POST THE SELECTIONS ASAP AND UPDATE AS I GO ALONG. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE THERE IS ‘COMPLETE’ YES. NO. WHEN ‘NO’ THERE ARE MORE SYSTEMS TO UPDATE. WHEN ‘YES’ THEY ARE COMPLETE FOR THE DAY. HOPE THIS HELPS.
TODAY'S SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG.
I AM TRYING TO ELIMINATE ODDS ON SELECTIONS IN MOST SYSTEMS. THIS WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE IN THEM ALL. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
2:50 Sand. Shuil Royale. 15/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 3. CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
2:50 Sand. Shuil Royale. 15/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 4. TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM.
3:15 War. Basford Bob. 10/11. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM.
2:40 War. Dhaafer. 11/10. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM.
4:45 Ling. Wily Fox. 13/8. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM.
2:30 Ling. Come On The Irons. 11/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM.
6:55 Wolver. School For Scandal. 2/7. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM.
3:25 San. Pepe Simo. 6/5.
2:40 War. Dhaafer. 11/10.
5:55 Wolver. Thoughtsofstardom. 9/2.
7:25 War. Thunderstruck. 11/4. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
3:40 Ling. Malice Or Mischief. 4/5. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
5:05 San. Ballytober. 6/4.
2:00 Ling. Far View. 3/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
4:55 War. Definite Artist. 9/2.
4:55 War. Florafern. 7/2. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. CASH FLOW SYSTEM.
3:15 War. Basford Bob. 10/11. --------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM.
2:15 Nav. Final Victory. 4/1.
2:15 Nav. Run With The Wind. 11/2.
1:45 San. Shalambar. 11/2.
4:35 San. Theatre Dance. 5/1.
5:55 Wolver. Francis Albert. 9/2.
6:25 Wolver. Petomic. 0/30.
6:25 Wolver. Northern Flyer. 5/2.
8:25 Wolver. Straboe. 7/2.
8:25 Wolver. Black Baccara. 11/2. ----------------------------------------------------- 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
2:00 Ling. Silver Wind. 5/1.
4:45 Ling. Allez Les Rouges. 5/2.
5:15 Ling. Stellarina. 12/1.
1:45 Sand. Qalinas. 2/1.
4:35 San. Theatre Dance. 5/1.
3:15 War. Basford Bob. 10/11.
3:50 War. Lavenoak Lad. 8/1.
5:55 Wolver. Francis Albeat. 9/2. ------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM.
5:05 Sand. Ballytober. 13/8. -------------------------------------------------------------- 20. ‘L’ PLATE SYSTEM.
5:05 San. Ballytober. 13/8.
2:40 War. Dhaafer. 11/10. ------------------------------------------------------ 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM.
2:50 San. Kid Cassidy. 1/1.
4:45 Ling. Miles Of Sunshine. 22/1. -------------------------------------------------------- THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW.
COMPLETE. YES.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 25, 2011 11:05:04 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
4.00 Sandown - China Gold - EACH WAY BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 25, 2011 11:49:11 GMT
kimmy
Sport - Horse Racing
Event - Lingfield 4.15 The Blue Dog
Bet - Each Way Bet
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 25, 2011 12:38:03 GMT
Morning Kimmy
The selections on the BLOG did not fare so well yesterday I am afraid and I am not too hopeful today either as racing does look particularly tricky.
Lingfield 3.05 No.10 Tuscan King Lingfield 4.45 No.4 Miles Of Sunshine Wolverhampton 7.25 No.3 Thunderstruck Wolverhampton 8.25 No.5 Straboe
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 26, 2011 9:49:36 GMT
Re: Systems Selections, Emails Etc. « Reply #131 Yesterday at 9:47am »
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 26, 2011 9:50:19 GMT
Dear Kimmy,We have a Free Bet on Saturday.4.55 Lingfield No 12 Mister Green - 0.15P Win Bet (4.2/1 Betfair) 0.15P Place (1/1 Betfair)Forget is last start because he could not stay 1 and a 1/2 miles in a horse box. That's what my contact said about him and he takes the eye big time back to a mile off bottom weight. A big run is expected.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 26, 2011 9:50:47 GMT
TODAY'S SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST IS ‘COMPLETE’ IF ‘NO’ MORE SELECTIONS MAY BE ADDED. WHEN ‘YES’ SELECTIONS COMPLETE. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
5:15 Kemp. Tour D'Argent. 11/10. ----------------------------------------------------- 3. CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
5:15 Kemp. Tour D'Argent. 11/10. ----------------------------------------------------- 4. TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
2:10 Ling. Chlimes. 16/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM.
5:15 Kemp. War Of The World. 11/1.
5:15 Kemp. Sleeping Tree. 25/1.
4:20 Ling. Greyfriarschorista. 12/1.
4:20 Ling. Silver Grey. 7/1.
2:05 Nav. Hotterthanjuly. 33/1.
4:50 Nav. Ashfield Present. 40/1.
4:50 Nav. Some Legend. 20/1.
4:50 Nav. Lusaid. 20/1.
4:50 Nav. Lady In The Mist. 14/1.
2:45 New. Battle Group. 5/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
2:10 Ling. Chjimes. 16/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
5:15 Kemp. Tour D'Argent. 11/10
2:40 Ling. Riot Police. 3/1.
3:10 Ling. Brave Prospector. 6/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. CASH FLOW SYSTEM.
BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD. -----------------------------------------------------
17. IN OUT SYSTEM.
4:10 Kemp. Mr. Hudson. 8/1.
4:45 Kemp. Spring Of Ferbet. 7/1.
4:45 Kemp. Coup Royale. 11/2.
4:20 Ling. Silver Grey. 7/1.
4:20 Ling. Layline. 4/1.
4:55 Ling. Blue Moon. 7/1.
4:50 Nav. Hoochie Mama. 4/1.
4:50 Nav. Bonoman. 17/2.
4:50 Nav. Twice The Craic. 7/1.
4:55 Ling. Buaiteoir. 9/2. ----------------------------------------------------- 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
4:50 Nav. Hoochie Mama. 4/1.
2:15 New. Washington Irving. 9/1.
3:50 New. Paddy Partridge. 0/30. ------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD. -------------------------------------------------------------- 20. ‘L’ PLATE SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD. -------------------------------------------------------- THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW.
COMPLETE. YES.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 26, 2011 11:11:41 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
4.45 Kempton - Forget It - EACH WAY BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 26, 2011 12:36:14 GMT
kimmy
Sport - Horse Racing
Event - Kempton 4.10 Mr Hudson
Bet - Each Way Bet
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 26, 2011 12:38:24 GMT
Hi Kimmy
The last time I put ‘Nacarat’ on the blog as a selection he won well at 6/1 but as the horse has been tipped by ‘Pricewise’ today the horse is shorter than he might have been. So in such a competitive looking race I am going to make the horse my third choice and I have two selections against the field.
Kempton 3.00 No.5 Quinz & No.8 Razor Royale
In the race ‘Razor Royale’ in the only Proven Profits Racing System horse in the race and at around 14/1 the horse does look worth a bet despite two disappointing runs. I also think that ‘Quinz’ at 7 years of age could have a fair bit of improvement in him yet and will hopefully go well today.
There was only the one winner from the four selections yesterday and that was ‘Straboe’ at 11/4. The horse was forecast at 13/2 so the 11/4 wasn’t great.
My other selections for today are: -
Lingfield 3.10 No.2 Angel’s Pursuit & No.12 Waveband Newcastle 3.15 No.2 Belon Gale Kempton 4.45 No.7 Rory Boy & No.9 Cruchain
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 26, 2011 12:44:58 GMT
Morning Kim
KEMPTON 3.00
Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m
5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher 9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender 12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast 20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses 25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World 40/1 Mount Oscar.
* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m * There has been 16 renewals of this race. * Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases * Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher * FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me * Not keen he has just 1 run this season * No past winner of this race had 1 run that season * In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year * When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners * Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35 * That winner had less weight and a more recent run * CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome * RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season * None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter * All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that * QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase * No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase * Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record * None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14) * None had as much weight as he does either * Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24 * QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough * MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12 * SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip * He lacks the backclass to overcome that * PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season * Similar horses had a 1-51 record * That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA * He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field * RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year * This year he has a much inferior preparation * He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs * He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him * I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile * MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase * He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts * Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14 * MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me * I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases * I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass * MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts * Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases * The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts * 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13 * The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000) * He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is * MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps * DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me * Well beaten on all starts this year * I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races * His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable * POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time * That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners * They all had a more recent run than him * They all had more backclass as well * POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet * 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before * They all came from higher in the weights as well * His form over this far raises stamina doubts too * Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me * SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter * I found 1 similar winner doing that * He did have a bit more backclass than he does * The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class * My best guess is that he wont * The overnight rain wont have helped him either * With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one
POSSIBLES
NACARAT - BAKBENSCHER HEY BIG SPENDER - TATENEN
* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem * The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile * His stable is out of form though * HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time * I found 3 similar winners with that profile * They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run * HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile * The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile * HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me * One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race * Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern * No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight * The other is whether a right handed flat track suits * All his best form came away from tighter tracks * It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed * TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time * I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races * TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today * His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats * He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs * Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record * His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m * Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina * BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase * Plenty to like about his profile * Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed * Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run * The Positives far outweight the doubts for me
SELECTION
All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that and a recent run steers me towards BAKBENSCHER
BAKBENSCHER Win Bet 9/1 at bet365 and VC
( Nacarat - Optional Saver)
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 27, 2011 9:45:42 GMT
Re: Systems Selections, Emails Etc. « Reply #137 Yesterday at 9:50am »
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 27, 2011 11:03:35 GMT
TODAYS SYSTEM SELECTIONS.
THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG.
RULES ARE UPDATED AMENDED PERIODICALLY.
----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
4:05 Tow. Round The Horn. 7/4. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 3.CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 4.IRISH TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
4:25 Leop. Rahan De Marcigny. 14/1.
4:25 Leop. Red Vinto. 8/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM.
2:40 Font. Fruity O Rooney. 11/4.
5:15 Font. Jimmy The Hat. 14/1.
2:50 Leop. Ephorus. 10/1.
3:55 Leop. Healys Bar. 14/1.
4:25 Leop. Carrigmartin. 9/1.
4:55 Leop. Jenari. 9/2.
4:35 Tow. Pruty Boy. 11/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
4:05 Tow. Round The Horn. 7/4. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. EASIER THIS TIME SYSTEM.
3:45 Font. Karabak. 5/2. -------------------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM.
3:20 Leop. Action Master. 4/1.
4:25 Leop. Ten Fires. 5/1.
3:00 Tow. Grand Fella. 0/30. ------------------------------------------------------ 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
2:10 Font. Lost Two Stars. 8/1.
2:20 Leop. Stonemaster. 4/1.
3:30 Leop. Action Master. 7/2.
4:25 Leop. Ten Fires. 5/1.
3:00 Tow. Grand Fella. 3/1. -------------------------------------------------
PLEASE NOTE SELECTIONS CAN CHANGE UNTIL 'COMPLETE?'AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE IS YES.
RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. COMPLETE ? YES.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 27, 2011 12:33:15 GMT
Morning Kimmy
Sport - Horse Racing
Event - Fontwell 2.40 Lord Ragnar
Bet - Lay Bet
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 28, 2011 10:21:45 GMT
Re: Systems Selections, Emails Etc. « Reply #143 Yesterday at 11:03am »
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 28, 2011 10:24:19 GMT
TODAY'S SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST IS ‘COMPLETE’ IF ‘NO’ MORE SELECTIONS MAY BE ADDED. WHEN ‘YES’ SELECTIONS COMPLETE. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 3. CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 4. TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM.
4:10 Catt. Chapolimoss. 11/1.
2:20 Plum. Fleetstone. 28/1.
3:20 Plum. Oscar Close. 3/1.
4:20 Plum. Kaituna. 9/2.
4:20 Plum. Twinbud. 6/1.
5:20 Plum. Blazing Empress. 9/2.
5:20 Plum. Grey Cruzene. 12/1.
5:00 Wolver. Sim Sala Bim. 11/4.
5:30 Wolver. Tornado Force. 4/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM.
6:00 Wolver. Laylas Dancer. 6/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 8. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
2:30 Wolver. Desert Strike. 6/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 9. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
3:30 Wolver. Below Zero. 6/1.
5:30 Wolver. Barnum. 13/2. ----------------------------------------------------- 10. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
5:00 Wolver. Black Pond. 8/13. ------------------------------------------------------- 11. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
5:00 Wolver. Black Pond. 8/13. ------------------------------------------------------- 12. CASH FLOW SYSTEM.
2:20 Plum. Alystar. 2/1. --------------------------------------------------- 13. IN OUT SYSTEM.
2:40 Catt. Not Talking. 5/1.
3:20 Plum. Oscar Close. 3/1.
3:20 Plum. Beau Lane. 4/1.
4:30 Wolver. Provest. 6/1.
4:30 Wolver. Join Up. 13/2. ------------------------------------------------- 14. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
3:40 Catt. Shadows Lengthen. 3/1.
2:20 Plum. Castle Myth. 12/1.
5:20 Plum. Chouromanesco. 11/1. ----------------------------------------------- THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS AND WILL / MAY BE AMENDED PERIODICALLY. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW.
COMPLETE ‘YES.’
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 28, 2011 11:23:21 GMT
Hi again Kimmy, Here is our Grand National Ante Post Selection 2011 - BALLYTRIM Trainer -Willie Mullins Already there has been huge interest in this horse for this years Grand National. Bookmakers William Hill were taken by surprise with the arrival of a £10,000 cash wager in a Cornish betting shop. The trainer has been trying for years to get this horse into the race. This horse comes good this time of the year and possesses bags of stamina!
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 28, 2011 11:23:46 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
3.00 Wolverhampton - Well Deal Again - WIN BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 28, 2011 12:44:35 GMT
Hi Kim
After two excellent winners on Saturday with ‘Quinz’ coming home in front in the big race at 8/1 and ‘Waveband’ at 16/1 at Lingfield, today does not look the best day.
Today’s selections are as follows: –
Catterick 2.10 No.2 Ballamusic Plumpton 3.50 No.4 Sumdancer Wolverhampton 2.30 No.3 Incomparable
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