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Post by Kimmy on Feb 17, 2011 10:59:21 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
2.20 Southwell - Alpha Tauri - WIN BET
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Post by davidn on Feb 17, 2011 20:10:27 GMT
hi well done on doing a great job kimmy. thank you david
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 18, 2011 8:24:45 GMT
Hi Davidn
Thank you. Its nice to know somebody looks in.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 18, 2011 8:30:02 GMT
Re: Systems Selections, Emails Etc. « Reply #89 Yesterday at 10:37am »
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 18, 2011 9:05:55 GMT
I HAVE RECEIVED A NUMBER ON PM’S ASKING IF I CAN POST THE SELECTIONS EARLIER. I AM AFRAID THIS IS NOT ALWAYS POSSIBLE BUT WHAT I CAN DO IS POST THE SELECTIONS ASAP AND UPDATE AS I GO ALONG. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE THERE IS ‘COMPLETE’ YES. NO. WHEN ‘NO’ THERE ARE MORE SYSTEMS TO UPDATE. WHEN ‘YES’ THEY ARE COMPLETE FOR THE DAY. HOPE THIS HELPS.
TODAY'S SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
NONE. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
8:35 Wolver. Dasho. 11/4. ----------------------------------------------------- 3.CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
3:35 New. Bygones In Brid. 11/2.
3:35 New. Peckhamecho. 9/2.
8:35 Wolver. Dasho. 11/4. ----------------------------------------------------- 4.TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
1:50 New. Sweet My Lord. 12/1. ---------------------------------------------------- 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM.
12:45 New. What A Friend. 4/5. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM.
3:00 New. Aiteen Thirtythree. 5/6.
2:00 Fak. Promising Anshan. 2/7. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM.
3:30 Ling. Ilissos. 5/6. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM.
4:40 Ling. Midnight Raider. 10/11. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM.
12:10 New. Cappagh. 5/2. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
4:30 San. Pere Blanc. 8/11. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
3:30 New. Peckhamecho. 9/2.
7:05 Wolver. Le Corvee. 16/1.
8:35 Wolver. Captain Loui. 12/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. CASH FLOW SYSTEM.
2:25 New. Minella Stars. 11/8. --------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM.
1:30 Fak. Brilliant. 3/1.
2:40 Sand. I'moncloudnine. 6/1.
7:05 Wolver. Our Kes. 9/2.
7:05 Wolver. Princess Lexi. 10/1.
6:35 Wolver. Dasho. 3/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
2:55 Ling. Goodbye Cash. 6/1.
1:45 Ling. The Blue Dog. 6/4.
6:30 Wolver. Far From Old. 9/1.
5:25 Wolver. Running Water. 14/1.
2:55 Ling. Emerald Girl. 6/4.
2:55 Ling. I Confess. 5/2.
2:55 Ling. Lend A Grand. 5/1. ------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM.
3:00 New. Aiteen Thirtythree. 5/6.
2:10 San. Head Hunted. 13/8.
3:55 San. Megastar. 8/15.
5:00 San. Just Amazing. 10/11. -------------------------------------------------------------- 20. ‘L’ PLATE SYSTEM.
7:35 Wolver. Faithful Ruler. 3/1.
8:05 Wolver. Lady Mango. 25/1.
8:35 Wolver. Captain Loui. 12/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM.
2:55 Ling. Emerald Girl. 7/2.
4:40 Ling. Refusetosurrender. 14/1.
6:00 Wolver. Chocolate Caramel. 10/1. -------------------------------------------------------- THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW.
COMPLETE. YES.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 18, 2011 9:10:03 GMT
Hi Kimmy Heres that free Cheltenham tip we promised you: Jewson Novice Chase Thur 17th March Noble Prince @ 8/1 (e/w) (William Hill,Blue SQ)
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 18, 2011 10:37:14 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
4.05 Lingfield - Galiotto - EACH WAY BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 18, 2011 11:39:14 GMT
Dear Member,
We have a Free Bet today.
1.50 Newbury No 5 Walkon - 0.15P E/W Bet (5/1 Bet 365BOG) He takes the eye today and has been working better than ever at home. A massive run is expected.
2.35 Fakenham No 2 San Remo Bello 0.15P E/W Bet (7/2 Bet 365 BOG) He has come on a ton for his last race and is strongly fancied to win today.
I also advise 0.05P Win Double at 5/1 & 7/2 Bet 365 BOG.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 18, 2011 12:57:37 GMT
Hi Kim
There is some superb racing today at the rescheduled Newbury meeting but my free selections today come elsewhere: -
Lingfield 4.05 No.3 Setter’s Princess Sandown 2.40 No.9 Dashing George Fakenham 1.30 No.3 Nous Voila Fakenham 3.10 No.3 Victorias Groom Wolverhampton 8.35 No.2 Silly Billy
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 19, 2011 8:22:24 GMT
Re: Systems Selections, Emails Etc. « Reply #94 Yesterday at 9:05am »
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 19, 2011 9:22:00 GMT
I HAVE RECEIVED A NUMBER ON PM’S ASKING IF I CAN POST THE SELECTIONS EARLIER. I AM AFRAID THIS IS NOT ALWAYS POSSIBLE BUT WHAT I CAN DO IS POST THE SELECTIONS ASAP AND UPDATE AS I GO ALONG. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE THERE IS ‘COMPLETE’ YES. NO. WHEN ‘NO’ THERE ARE MORE SYSTEMS TO UPDATE. WHEN ‘YES’ THEY ARE COMPLETE FOR THE DAY. HOPE THIS HELPS. TODAY'S SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM. 4:30 Hay. You Know Yourself. 6/1. 2ND 13/2.----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM. 1:20 As. Problema Tic. 5/2. ----------------------------------------------------- 3. CHAMPIONS SYSTEM. 1:20 As. Problema Tic. 5/2. 4:40 As. Mono Man. 2/1. WON. 4:40 As. Oscara Dara. 12/1. 2ND.----------------------------------------------------- 4. TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM. 2:30 Gow. Scotsirish. 3/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 5. QUICK SYSTEM. 4:30 Hay. You Know Yourself. 6/1. 2ND 13/2.------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM. 5:20 Win. Smad Place. 1/4. WON. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM. 4:05 As. Sprinter Sacre. 4/7. WON. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM. 2:20 Ling. Baharat. 1/1. WON. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM. 2:55 Ling. Grandmas Dream. 2/1. WON. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM. 4:04 As. Sprinter Sacre. 4/7. WON. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM. 3:05 Gow. Judge Roy Bean. 11/1. 2:10 Hay. Lively Barron. 9/1. 2:45 Hay. Any Given Day. 9/4. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM. 4:35 Ling. Mister Green. 3/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM. 2:00 Win. Sultan Fontenaille. 11/10. 2:35 Win. Carlicue. 7/4. 3:45 Win. Silviniaco Conti. 3/1. 4:15 Win. Aerial. 9/2. WON. 3:25 Ling. Desert Strike. 25/1. 4:00 Ling. New Leyf. 16/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM. None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM. None. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. CASH FLOW SYSTEM. 2:45 Hay. Any Given Day. 9/4. 3:00 As. Riverside Theatre. 7/4. WON. --------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM. 3:05 Gow. Smoking Aces. 6/1. 3:05 Gow. The Sneezer. 15/2. WON. 1:20 As. Tornado Bob. 13/8. 3:35 As. Like Minded. 8/1. 1:40 Hay. Houbleon Des Obeaux. 2/1. WON. 3:25 Ling. Nubar Boy. 5/1. 3RD 9/1.3:25 Ling. Primo Devida. 7/1. 3:25 Ling. Norville. 7/1. 3:10 Win. Regal Heights. 4/1. 3:10 Win. Holmwood Legend. 7/1. 4:15 Win. I'm A Legend. 9/2. 4:15 Win. Aeriel. 9/2. WON. 4:15 Win. Mister Wiseman. 13/2. 4:45 Gow. Glam Gerry. 4/1. 4:45 Gow. Las Calahall. 6/1. WON 13/2. ----------------------------------------------------- 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM. 4:30 Hay. Benny Be Good. 15/8. 3:45 Win. Silviniaco Conti. 3/1. 3:55 Hay. Lackamon. 7/2. 4:00 Ling. The Scorching Wind. 8/1. 4:15 Win. Double The Trouble. 9/1. 3RD 12/1.------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM. 5:20 Win. Smad Place. 1/4. WON. -------------------------------------------------------------- 20. ‘L’ PLATE SYSTEM. 5:10 Ling. Titan Triumph. 11/2. 2ND.------------------------------------------------------ 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM. 2:20 Ling. Old English. 3/1. -------------------------------------------------------- THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW. COMPLETE. YES.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 19, 2011 11:29:15 GMT
Dear Member,
We have a Free Bet today.
2.35 Wincanton No 3 Carlicue - 0.40P Win Bet (7/4 Corals) Scored in workman like fashion at Ffos Las last time and is fancied to follow up. 3.00 Ascot No 6 Riverside Theatre 0.40P Win Bet (7/4 Bet 365) Did nothing wrong in the Grade 1 King George at Kempton when chasing home stablemate Long Run. Takes a drop back in trip here however he is strongly fancied. My man feels that on a line through stablemate Punchestowns he would have little to fear from the Nicholls runner.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 19, 2011 11:29:43 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
3.20 Haydock -Le Beau Bai - EACH WAY BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 19, 2011 11:58:50 GMT
Saturday – big race trends Saturday, February 19th, 2011 at 8:48 am Leave your comment
Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f
POSITIVE TRENDS Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10. Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market. Price: Horses priced 9/2 or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners. LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%). LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO. Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10.
NEGATIVE TRENDS Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%). Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%).
GENERAL STATS Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds
have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced
5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners
from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%).
Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.
2.45 Haydock – Totescoop6 (Rendlesham) Hurdle – 3m
POSITIVE TRENDS Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a
profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%). Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO. Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race. Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO. Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock. Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%). Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002.
NEGATIVE TRENDS Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%).
GENERAL STATS Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%).
Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO. French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.
3.00 Ascot – Betfair Chase – 2m 5½f
POSITIVE TRENDS Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%). Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter. Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton. Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father. LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win. Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23. LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24.
GENERAL STATS Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year
olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10 year olds have produced
1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners
from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%).
Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 19, 2011 12:20:04 GMT
Hi Kim
Today is another exciting Saturday for racing fans with some excellent racing at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton. I am doing some dutching in two of the races and my free selections today are as follows: -
Lingfield 3.25 No.12 Nubar Boy Wincanton 4.15 No.5 Tamadot & No.6 Emergency Exit Haydock 3.20 No.1 Silver By Nature & No.3 Carruthers
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 19, 2011 14:30:13 GMT
Saturday Free Racing Tip at Haydock
Before todays free tip a bit of bookmaker news for Cheltenham worth noting.
Boyles have a very good Cheltenham day 1 offer where you can get stakes of up to £250 per race refunded if your horse comes second in the following Cheltenham day 1 races.
1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy 2.40 Festival Handicap Steeple Chase 3.20 Champion Hurdle
Also worth noting that they offer best price guarantees.
If you are new to Boyles they will also give you the addition of a free £20 bet.
Full info on their site .
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HAYDOCK 3.20
Totesport.com Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4f
11/2 West End Rocker, 13/2 Carruthers, 7/1 Mobaasher 8/1 King Fontaine, 8/1 Silver By Nature, 9/1 Le Beau Bai 9/1 Nicto De Beauchene, 10/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Sarde 20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Etxalar, 25/1 Madison Du Berlais 33/1 Jaunty Journey, 40/1 Sound Accord.
* This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase. * Haydock’s has had 14 renewals of this race
This is a Grand National trial and I think we should split the runners into two categories. First of all the in form horses in the race that ran very well last time out and who are likely to be here to do their best. Secondly the horses well beaten last time that might be using the race to put the finishing touches on their Grand National chance. Thats certainly looks like it has happened in the past as only In Form horses win this race.
* Last time out winners won 6 past renewals * Last time out seconds won 4 past renewals * Last time out 1st 2nd or 3rd won 12 of the 14 renewals * Only 2 of the past winners were not placed last time * One of these was 5th last time but had a long absence * Another Fell at the 1st on their last run but won before it
I think you need to be against the horses that didnt run very well last time. SILVER BY NATURE looks one to oppose beaten too far last time and its interesting only 2 of the 14 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more. I would also be against MADISON DU BERLAIS and CARRUTHERS both high weights and not doing enough last time. Harder to rule out CARRUTHERS. He isnt too unlike the winner in 2008 (Miko De Beauchene) who had won the Chepstow Welsh National and won this after a break aged 8 absent a fair while. CARRUTHERS though has a longer break and was well beaten last time and is only a small horse who is best in a very small field and has never been placed in any prior handicap. SOUND ACCORD - JAUNTY JOURNEY and ETXALAR are all horses that failed to do enough last time out. I dont see BALLYFITZ as straight enough to be winning and you’d expect him to be laid out for Aintree if he gets in that race. The only winners from a Novice race ran within 2 weeks and MAJOR MALARKEY has got 66 days absence and No past winners came from any Novice Handicap to win. I’ve looked at every Handicap Chase in March and Febuary in Class 2 and Higher and thats all 329 races at any distance in those grades. If you look at 7 year olds that have No Graded form before and also have 13 or more career starts you do not find many winners and none were like SARDE. None had as long an absence or won at this distance and none managed to win having only 2 runs that season and I dont see SARDE having enough to win this. There is an interesting angle about backclass because 12 of the 14 winners of this race had past form in either a Listed or Graded race before. KING FONTAINE doesn’t have that. He seems to have plenty of weight for a horse without it. The only winners of this race without Listed or Graded form had much less weight than he does and having been raised 15lbs for his last win he has quite a bit to prove and his trainer has said the 15lbs rise was harsh.
SHORTLIST
WEST END ROCKER MOBAASHER NICTO DE BEAUCHENE LE BEAU BAI
The issue with WEST END ROCKER s whether he has recovered from a hard race at Warwick. Similar winners of that race finished 4 6 11 in this race. Statistically he is respectable and earns a shortlist place comfortably. I like MOBAASHER as he is a promising chaser who has a progressive profile and looks well handicapped on his hurdles form. Against him is he hasnt raced over fences this season yet and I hope it doesnt catch him out. It’s interesting NICTO DE BEAUCHENE’s full brother has won this race before much as he was classier. He lacks a run in Graded Class but both winners that lacked that did look similar with a months break and a good last run and I see NICTO DE BEAUCHENE as a serious runner. The other option is mud loving LE BEAU BAI who finished 3rd in this race last year and should be thereabouts again. The overnight rain swings me towards LE BEAU BAI.
SELECTION
LE BEAU BAI 9/1 in various spots Ladbrokes , Sky , bet365, William Hill etc
Each Way
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 20, 2011 9:58:11 GMT
TODAYS SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
5:05 MR. Matthew Riley. 4/1.
4:45 Sedg. Newdane Dancer. 4/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 3.CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
5:05 MR. Matthew Riley. 4/1.
4:45 Sedg. Newdane Dancer. 4/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 4.IRISH TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
3:05 Naas. Golden Silver. 2/11.
3:05 Naas. Scotsirish. 12/1.
3:35 Naas. Aughaloor. 14/1.
3:35 Naas. dare To Doubt. 8/1.
3:35 Naas. Day Of A Lifetime. 11/8.
3:35 Naas. Prima Vista. 5/1.
3:35 Naas. Monastrell. 20/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM.
3:30 Mr. CapeTribulation. 1/1.
2:10 Sedg. Lamps. 5/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM.
2:00 MR. Spirit OfAdjisa. 1/1.
5:05 MR. Sizing Ireland. 15/8. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM.
4:25 Kemp. Red Copper. 6/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM.
4:40 Naas. Rivage D'Or. 11/2.
3:05 Naas. Made In Taipan. 7/1.
5:05 Mr. Nalim. 20/1.
4:15 Sedg. Glenoree. 5/2.
4:45 Sedg. Newdane Dancer. 4/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
3:45 Sedg. Bocciani. 0/30. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
3:00 MR. Conquisto. 12/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. EASIER THIS TIME SYSTEM.
2:10 Sedg. Lamps. 5/4. -------------------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM.
2:50 Kemp. Aather. 5/2.
3:20 kemp. Gandalf. 0/30.
4:25 Kemp. Snowy Peak. 2/1.
4:25 Kemp. Red Copper. 6/1.
4:25 Kemp. Arnold Layne. 11/2.
3:10 Sedg. Jack The Gent. 6/4.
3:10 Sedg. Maggio. 7/2. ------------------------------------------------------ 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
1:50 Kemp. Bold Diva. 7/2. ------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM.
2:10 Sedg. Palaw1. 5/4. -------------------------------------------------- 20.'L' PLATE SYSTEM.
2:20 Kemp. Chevise. 8/13.
3:55 Kemp. Chilli Green. 5/2.
5:25 Kemp. But Beautiful. 11/8.
3:45 Sedg.Rawaaj. 7/4. ---------------------------------------------------- 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM.
2:20 Kemp. Captain Dimitrois. 9/4. ---------------------------------------------------
PLEASE NOTE SELECTIONS CAN CHANGE UNTIL 'COMPLETE' IS YES.
COMPLETE YES.
RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW. REMEMBER THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 20, 2011 12:09:38 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
3.00 Market Rasen - Pegasus Prince - EACH WAY BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 20, 2011 13:57:13 GMT
Re: Systems Selections, Emails Etc. « Reply #106 Today at 9:58am »
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 21, 2011 10:10:00 GMT
I HAVE RECEIVED A NUMBER ON PM’S ASKING IF I CAN POST THE SELECTIONS EARLIER. I AM AFRAID THIS IS NOT ALWAYS POSSIBLE BUT WHAT I CAN DO IS POST THE SELECTIONS ASAP AND UPDATE AS I GO ALONG. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE THERE IS ‘COMPLETE’ YES. NO. WHEN ‘NO’ THERE ARE MORE SYSTEMS TO UPDATE. WHEN ‘YES’ THEY ARE COMPLETE FOR THE DAY. HOPE THIS HELPS.
TODAY'S SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 3. CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 4. TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM.
2:50 Here. Quartz De Thaix. 4/6.
2:10 Car. Storming Gale. 4/9. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM.
3:20 Here. Listenlook. 7/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM.
Erinjay. 1/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM.
4:30 Wolver. Harry Lime. 5/2. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM.
2:10 Car. Storming Gale. 4/9. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM.
2:20 Here. Bay Central. 50/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
3:00 Wolver. Bright Sparky. 0/30.
4:00 Wolver. I Confess. 3/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
2:10 Car. Senor Alco. 7/2.
2:10 Car. Storming Gale. 4/9.
4:30 Wolver. Harry Lime. 9/4.
5:30 Wolver. Crown Counsel. 9/4.
5:00 Wolver. John Potts. 4/1.
4:00 Wolver. I Confess. 3/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
5:30 Wolver. Lennoxwood. 14/1. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
5:10 Car. Richie Rob. 13/2.
5:10 Car. Vintage Star. 15/8.
5:10 Car. Edmund. 6/1.
5:30 Wolver. Lennoxwood. 14/1. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. CASH FLOW SYSTEM.
4:50 Here. Abey M Boy. 4/1.
3:50 Here. Royal Chatelier. 15/8. --------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM.
2:40 Car. Overbranch. 5/2.
4:50 Here. Buffalo Stampede. 7/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
2:20 Here. Cotillion. 13/8.
2:50 Here. South O' The Border. 9/2.
4:00 Wolver. Erinjay. 1/1. ------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM.
2:40 Car. Primrose Time. 11/4. -------------------------------------------------------------- 20. ‘L’ PLATE SYSTEM.
3:20 Here. Listenlook. 7/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM.
2:30 Wolver. Trumpstoo. 8/1.
3:30 Wolver. Overwhelm. 2/1. -------------------------------------------------------- THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW.
COMPLETE. YES..
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 21, 2011 11:25:01 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
2.30 Wolverhampton - Noah Jameel - WIN BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 21, 2011 11:49:15 GMT
Morning Kim
Sport - Horse Racing
Event - Carlisle 4.10 Degas Art
Bet - Lay Bet
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 21, 2011 13:24:56 GMT
Hi kim
In the Grand National Trial on Saturday I gave ‘Carruthers’ and ‘Silver By Nature’ as my selections. ‘Carruthers’ was backed in to 7/2 but it was the bigger priced ‘Silver By Nature’ who stalked the leaders throughout to come smoothly through 5 out to go clear and win comfortably by 15 lengths at 10/1.
My selections for today are: -
Hereford 4.50 No.1 Take It There & No.9 Abey M’Boy Wolverhampton 2.30 No.8 Laura Land Wolverhampton 4.30 No.2 Strophic Wolverhampton 5.00 No.1 Strong Vigilance
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 22, 2011 9:27:54 GMT
Re: Systems Selections, Emails Etc. « Reply #109 Yesterday at 10:10am »
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 22, 2011 9:31:20 GMT
TODAYS SYSTEM SELECTIONS. THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. SELS. POSTED & REPEATED FOR UPDATE OF RESULTS. BOG. ----------------------------------------------------- 1. QUICK RETURN SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 2. CHAMPION SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 3.CHAMPIONS SYSTEM.
None. ----------------------------------------------------- 4.IRISH TOP OF THE LIST SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 5. QUICK SYSTEM.
3:25 South. Reachforthebucks. 1/4.
4:15 Taunt. Just Amazing. 4/9. ------------------------------------------------------ 6. HOT SHOT SYSTEM.
2:00 Taunt. Quozak. 1/2. ------------------------------------------------------ 7. WARM SHOT SYSTEM.
2:30 Taunt. Dark Lover. 4/6.
3:50 Weth. Hobsons Bay. 1/1. ------------------------------------------------------ 8. HOT FLAT SYSTEM.
4:00 South. Baileys Agincourt. 6/4. ------------------------------------------------------ 9. WARM SHOT FLAT SYSTEM.
2:50 South. Kummelexcess. 5/2. ------------------------------------------------------ 10. FOLLOW THE CROWD SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------ 11. NAP HAND SYSTEM.
3:50 Weth. Hobsons Bay. 1/1. ----------------------------------------------------- 12. TRYING AGAIN SYSTEM.
4:15 Taunt. Just Amazing. 4/9. ----------------------------------------------------- 13. BURDEN TO CARRY SYSTEM.
3:50 Weth. Hobsons Bay. 1/1.
3:40 taunt. Organisateur. 5/1.
5:10 South. Duar Mapel. 20/1.
4:35 South. Stanley Rigby. 13/8. ----------------------------------------------------- 14. HARD LUCK SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 15. CAN IT WIN SYSTEM.
None. ------------------------------------------------------- 16. EASIER THIS TIME SYSTEM.
5:00 Weth. Ebanour. 8/11.
3:50 Weth. Hobsons Bay. 1/1. -------------------------------------------------------------- 17. IN OUT SYSTEM.
3:05 Taunt. Kinkeel. 7/1.
2:10 Weth. Minibeck. 9/2.
2:40 Weth. Good For Blue. 11/2. ------------------------------------------------------ 18. GAMBLE LANDED SYSTEM.
4:35 South. Ay Tay Tate. 13/2.
4:45 Taunt. Jewellery. 7/1.
4:45 Taunt. Gilt Free. 12/1. ------------------------------------------------- 19. 40+ SYSTEM.
2:00 Taunt. Qozak. 1/2.
4:15 Taunt. Just Amazing. 8/15. -------------------------------------------------- 20.'L' PLATE SYSTEM.
3:50 Weth. River Dragon. 11/4. ---------------------------------------------------- 21. ISOLATED SYSTEM.
4:00 South. Baileys Agincourt. 5/4. ------------------------------------------------ PLEASE NOTE SELECTIONS CAN CHANGE UNTIL 'COMPLETE?' IS YES. RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED BELOW. REMEMBER THESE ARE ONLY TRIAL SYSTEMS. COMPLETE ? YES.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 22, 2011 9:34:17 GMT
Morning Kimmy
The Grand National 2011 is now less than seven weeks away, and I’ve finally got round to my initial preview. It’s one of the races I look forward to more than any other, because the trends are so strong.
That said, the last two years have had primary trends-busters about the winners. Of course, we can’t expect to get the winner every single year, although that would be nice! So what went wrong?
Well, Don’t Push It, ridden by a certain AP McCoy, came out best last term. There were a number of aspects to his Grand National profile that were unusual. Firstly, he carried more weight to victory than any winner since the mighty Red Rum completed his National hat-trick way back in 1977.
Secondly, he hadn’t won a Listed or better steeplechase in his career to that point, as all winners since Lord Gyllene in 1997 had. And thirdly, allied to his weight, he was the highest officially rated horse to win since… well I’m not sure actually, but definitely in the last fifteen years and more. He won off an official rating of 153.
Back in 2009, when Mon Mome prevailed, he was the first French bred winner for exactly a hundred years to triumph in the Grand National. Although I still believe French-breds have a heck of a lot to do to win the race, I’ve slightly revised my absolute ‘non’ to Frenchies, to instead look for a win over at least 3m2f in a Class 1 event (in other words, high class form at a staying trip).
The Frenchies were all trounced last year, and unless there are proven Gallic sloggers in the field, I’ll be against them once more.
OK, so those are the excuses for not finding the last two Grand National winners out of the way. Now let’s get down to business. I’ve analysed the last eleven years winners’ profiles and found some enlightening patterns. At least, I hope they are, as I’ve put my money where my virtual mouth is…! More on that in a moment.
So, the most pre-eminent Grand National trend is also the most obvious, despite a daft maxim to the contrary. Someone somewhere came up with the notion that you want a two mile chaser to win the Grand National. I presume it was a bookmaker because, despite my stated affection for contrarian theory, this is preposterous. The National is fully four and a half miles, a distance which makes it the longest in the British racing calendar. Two miles over steeplechase fences is the shortest possible distance, which perhaps helps to highlight the preposterosity of the maxim.
In any case, I need my Grand National shortlist to have won over at least three miles, and ideally further. All of the last eleven did, and nine had won over at least a furlong further.
Next we come to age, which also incorporates implicitly experience. Quite simply, no horse since 1940 (Bogskar) has won as a seven year old or younger, and the last teenager to come home in front in the Aintree showpiece was Sergeant Murphy in 1923, at the ripe old age of 13. So the conventional wisdom is that you want a horse aged between eight and twelve, and it’s hard to argue with that, given that every winner since the aforementioned Bogskar seventy years ago has matched that criterion.
But it doesn’t help us an awful lot, as most entries also fit the age mould. Looking a bit more precariously – and with an obvious eye to whittle down the 102 declared runners (or 101 after the sad demise of Glencove Marina) – I have noted that twelve of the last fifteen winners were aged nine or ten years old.
Bindaree won in 2002 as an 8yo, and Party Politics achieved the same feat a decade earlier but, on balance, it’s prudent to overlook this age group.
For now, I’ll leave the eleven and twelve year olds in, but will place a premium on horses age nine or ten.
OK, onwards, for there is much still to conjure with!
Much has been made of weight and official rating in the context of the Grand National, and I’m about to add my tuppence to the debate. It should be noted that the handicapper’s discretion in allocating weight outside of the direct edicts of the official ratings has changed the profile of National weight carrying requirements. I should add that I think it’s a great thing for the race, as more high class animals have been given some sort of a chance. [On the flip side, of course, it's now harder to find the winner!]
What I believe has happened is that there has been a shift from it being nigh on impossible for the high weights to win the race, to a situation where the reverse is now true, and those at the bottom of the weights are not receiving enough of a concession from better class animals.
In real terms, this means that whereas previously I’d have advocated a horse must carry no more than eleven stone and a pound or two, I now believe that anything lugging up to 11-07 could win. However, horses at the tail of the handicap have their work cut out, and not since Bobbyjo landed a proper coup in 1999 has a horse carrying less than 10-04 landed the Grand National.
So I’m looking for a horse allocated somewhere between 10-04 and 11-07. But… weight must still also be considered in the context of official ratings, and Don’t Push It’s victory off 153 was significant. Whilst I’d be prepared to open the ratings range to horses rated as high as 155, they’d be asked to carry no less than 11-05 here, so the weights range becomes constrained between 10-04 and 11-05.
If you’re still with me and, better still, following along in the declarations, that’s from Majestic Concorde down to That’s Rhythm.
Now then, it is obvious to even the layest (most lay?) of laymen that to win the Grand National, your horse must be able to jump. There are thirty fences to be navigated, and some of them are brutes. All of them are somewhat alien to those the nags normally clamber across. In empirical terms, this can be best exemplified by the fact that not since Rough Quest in 1997 has a horse won the Grand National having previously fallen, unseated or been brought down more than twice in their chasing careers.
Put another way, if you like a horse who has already parted company with the rider (as opposed to pulled up) three times or more, you’re on a very sticky wicket. Moreover, none of the last eleven winners had failed to complete more than four times over fences, covering both spills and pulled up’s. So if your fancy has more letters than numbers by its name, you ain’t very likely to bag the winner.
What about experience and competitiveness? Well, as well as being able to tell you that seven of the last eleven National winners had run over steeplechase fences between ten and14 times (the other four having run between 24 and 41 (!) times), I can also relate that all of the last eleven winners had won or placed in at least 40% of their chase runs. There were no winners in that period who had less than three prior wins, and none with more than the seven that Monty’s Pass had already registered, albeit from those staggering 41 goes.
All of them had won over three miles or more, and nine had won over 3m1f or more. In fact, aside from Don’t Push It last year (3m1f winner), the previous six Grand National scorers had won over at least 3m3f and as much as 4m1f. Sloggers indeed!
The last eight winners of the race had won in a field of at least 14, and that’s hardly surprising given that forty or thereabouts stare down the tape each April. If your nag likes small fields, he should seek one elsewhere because he won’t win here.
Class is becoming more of an imperative for this race, despite the fact that Don’t Push It’s highest grade win was a Class 2 handicap chase. (DPI had won a Listed handicap hurdle and crept up the chase weights due to a string of decent efforts in Graded runs).
Prior to last year, all of the previous ten winners had scored in a Class 1 (Listed or Graded) or Grade A/B/1/2/3 (the Irish equivalent) race.
Course form is an interesting component in the profile of many of the runners, with eight of the last eleven winners having had sight of the Aintree fences before.
And one of the most fascinating discoveries I made when researching the profiles of recent Grand National winners was that no fewer than ten of the eleven (again, DPI was the exception) had raced previously in one or more of the English, Scottish, Irish, Welsh or Kerry Nationals. Further, eight of them had either won or placed 1-2-3 in such a race.
There were only two last time out winners but that won’t help us at this stage as most horses will run again between now and post time for the Grand National. Indeed, only Hedgehunter had completed his preparation by now, with the range of ‘days since last run’ being 20-49. Only three of the last eleven winners ran at Cheltenham’s Festival interestingly and, again, DPI was in the trio alongside Bindaree and Silver Birch.
Another compelling statistic is that eight of the last eleven winners had at least one start in a hurdle race in their Grand National-winning season. This trend was started off by the wily Irish, and has become something of a ‘de rigeur’ manoeuvre for protecting a beast’s handicap mark. Of course, with the handicapper now afforded more discretion the ‘trick’ has less oomph than it did. Nevertheless, seven of the last eight National winners had had a spin over hurdles that season, including both DPI and Mon Mome.
That’s a heck of a lot of data, and some great insights there. So it’s finally time to apply them to this year’s entries. Things can change a bit between now and early April, so I’ll try to focus on those elements that cannot change, or at least are unlikely to.
So, here we go. We start with 101 entries, and age does for 29 runners, who are either eight or younger, or are a teenager. 72 to go. Next up, we’ll lose those outside of the official rating and handicap mark brackets alluded to above, and we can apprehensively strike out a further 35 to leave a ‘cut’ of 37 contenders.
It’s time to do away with any Frenchies who have failed the distance / class rule above, and that’s adieu to Or Noir de Somoza, Backstage, Ornais and That’s Rhythm, leaving 33. A third of the entries is a lot more manageable number from which to begin the deeper analysis.
Let’s look to eliminate scratchy jumpers or habitual non-completers next, by unseating any horse with three or more horse-rider partings or five-plus non-completions in total.
Here we lose Big Fella Thanks, Taranis, Silver By Nature, I’msingingtheblues (all for jumping faults); and, Niche Market, Comply Or Die, Grand Slam Hero, and Dream Alliance for non-completions. Eight depart, 25 remain.
We’ll quickly eliminate those with less than ten runs and no chance of getting them before the race: tatty-bye to The Midnight Club, Nedzer’s Return, and the long absent Surface To Air.
With no other Grand National’s scheduled to be run (except the Irish version which is run too close to the Aintree version for a horse to contest both), let’s give a bonus point for any entry which has won or placed in any of these affairs.
Chief Dan George was 5th in the Scottish National; Oscar Time was second behind Bluesea Cracker in the Irish National; Northern Alliance won the Kerry National; and both Snowy Morning (3rd, 6th, 9th) and State of Play (3rd, 4th) have multiple single figure completions at Aintree’s Grand National.
*******
Now it starts to get tricky as the following elements could change, based on form between now and the Grand National meeting. So, with that in mind, we’ll look at longest chase win (3m+) in conjunction with biggest field win (13+), and see who fails on this score. Casualties aplenty here, with Dooneys Gate, Little Josh, Scotsirish, I’msingingtheblues, Killyglen, In Compliance, Santa’s Son, and Can’t Buy Time all biting the dust.
Like I say, any of these to win beyond three miles and/or in a field of 13+ may re-qualify, but for now we’ll scratch them.
That leaves thirteen, so let’s see which of these have won in a Graded or Listed race over fences, as ten of the last eleven winners did…
Ballabriggs has yet to win in Graded company, as have The Tother One (2nd in a Grade 2), Ballytrim and Roll Along.
Nine remain, and are: CHIEF DAN GEORGE – 5th in Scottish National, ran over hurdles last time, 40/1 Stan James / William Hill FAIR ALONG – very game front runner, would give a fine run for the money at 66′s should he line up… OSCAR TIME – bought by moneybags owner Robert Waley-Cohen and will be ridden by son Sam. Been hurdling. Big chance, small price at 16′s SNOWY MORNING – three completions in the race, none better than 3rd. Age catching up, and he’s been pointing so may run in the Foxhunters rather than the National itself. 66/1 NORTHERN ALLIANCE – very interesting from Tony Martin stable. Won Kerry National and ran an eye-catching race last time back over fences (after some hurdle runs to mask the handicap mark, presumably). 66/1 looks great value on this one. FROM DAWN TO DUSK – non runner due to injury STATE OF PLAY – will go straight to the race in which he’s finished 3rd and 4th in two of his last three starts. Goes great fresh and lower weight gives him a fine chance. 25/1 WEST END ROCKER – Pulled up at the weekend after two impressive chase wins, the second in a Grade 3. Outside chance before that shocker. 33/1 BLUESEA CRACKER – Irish National winner from Oscar Time. Injury prevented participation in the Welsh National. She jumps, stays and has a touch of class. 33/1 is perfectly fair, after a sneaky hurdles run earlier in the campaign.
It gets much harder now, except that From Dawn To Dusk is a non-runner, and the above are my thoughts. Based on the past performances of the Irish, Welsh, Kerry and Scottish (and of course Aintree Grand) National winners, my four against the field are:
Oscar Time, Northern Alliance, State of Play, and Bluesea Cracker. I think they’ve all got great chances in the race, and I’ll be looking for no more than encouragement from any run these chaps have between now and the big race itself.
So that’s my marathon preview of the marathon contest. Who’s your early fancy for the Grand National, and why?
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 22, 2011 10:59:17 GMT
Kimmy,
Your FREE Tip
1.40 Wetherby - Imperial Royale - WIN BET
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 22, 2011 12:49:21 GMT
Morning Kimmy
It was another very good day on the BLOG yesterday with Dutching working once again. Over the last few days the BLOG has had some excellent winners and yesterday there were three winners from four races at odds of 9/1, 6/4 and 14/1. All three horses won comfortably especially ‘Take It There’ who won by 11 lengths at 14/1.
After a great day yesterday with three winners from four races I would love to say I am confident of more winners, but it does not look an easy day and I will be happy with one winner.
Here are today’s racing selections: –
Wetherby 3.15 No.1 Pak Jack Taunton 4.45 No.6 Gilt Free Southwell 1.50 No.3 Indian Pipe Dream & No.5 Stadium Of Light Southwell 4.35 No.2 Turjuman
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 22, 2011 12:50:24 GMT
kim
Sport - Horse Racing
Event - Southwell 5.10 Fastinthestraight
Bet - Win Bet
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 23, 2011 8:15:24 GMT
Re: Systems Selections, Emails Etc. « Reply #114 Yesterday at 9:31am »
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