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Post by omnivore on Jul 28, 2010 10:59:33 GMT
3-4 weeks ago I applied a slight modification to my selection method. Since then the SR has gone steadily downhill. I've now ditched that modification. WD with LS Arkle Good 5.10 Dance East/Agony And Ecstasy
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Post by Arkle55 on Jul 29, 2010 8:21:29 GMT
GOODWOOD 3.25 Age Of Aquarius, Purple Moon
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Post by skyrack on Jul 29, 2010 13:25:14 GMT
3.25 Goodwood Kite Wood
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Post by omnivore on Jul 29, 2010 13:31:50 GMT
Good 3.25 Little to choose between these two. Age Of Aquarius/Tactic
Good 5.10 Cansili Star/Rakaan/Waveband
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Post by omnivore on Jul 30, 2010 11:32:07 GMT
Rakaan just pipped yesterday. Todays race should be a cracker!
Good 3.25 Ransom Note/Oasis Dancer/Sea Lord
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Post by Kimmy on Jul 30, 2010 19:31:01 GMT
Not being very well up on this subject but do you think the following selection looks a good bet?
Sat. 3:05 Good. Midday.
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Post by omnivore on Jul 30, 2010 20:25:25 GMT
I'll be honest with you Kimmy. If a race has less than eight runners I hardly give it a second glance for backing to win. Having said that. I promise I will rate it tomorrow morning BTW, Sea Lord won.
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Post by Kimmy on Jul 30, 2010 20:33:06 GMT
omnivore
Thank you. I only seleced this race because it was the highest value race of the day.
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Post by omnivore on Jul 31, 2010 9:47:08 GMT
The Goodwood 3.05 race. Apart from only having seven runners, there are several other reasons why I would leave this race alone. Although Stacelita shows up well for consistency and ability, it is dragged down to 4th in my ratings after other elements are taken into consideration. I have Midday on top. However, others appear to be more consistent, despite the form figures you see. Rosanara has ability and a couple of other elements in it’s favour, but only comes 3rd in my ratings. It is outpointed by Strawberrydaiquiri who is consistent and has decent overall form but may still be lacking. It could figure if upping it’s game. All in all a rather puzzling picture I’m afraid. Sorry. Good 3.40 Jonny Mudball/Genki (Palace Moon)
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Post by omnivore on Aug 6, 2010 19:58:55 GMT
Two things I suppose. 1) what's the point of this thread if there are no regular contributors? 2) what's the point of Oldtimer's thread if we are not allowed to comment or contribute?
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Post by Arkle55 on Aug 7, 2010 5:24:44 GMT
Omnivore You could put some selections up on a regular basis. If you can find a few winners, some may join in for a while, but in general i do'nt think many are interested in VDW. You may wish to look in the archives this will also confirm why there are know regular contributions.
What do you mean by, you are not allowed to comment on Oldtimers thread.
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Post by skyrack on Aug 7, 2010 8:12:08 GMT
Pre-race selection The Rose Of Lancaster, 2:50 Haydock, a Group3 Class 1 race is the first race I analysed. First, because it is has the highest penalty value with a reasonable field of 9. I have seen quite a few pre-race selections, but never have I seen a mention of why a particular race was considered. And some races used for pre-selection seem to be most definitely what VDW did call a "scrubber". The race I ignored to get to this one was the Heritage 3:25 Haydock. Top penalty value for the day, but a large field of 18 to contend with. Interestingly, that is a Class 2 race and with more value than my chosen Class 1 race. vanderwheil.com/media/uk//14-50 Haydock Van der Wheil_1.png[/img] Class Is Class is, perhaps, a particulary apt name. Here you can see the 5 Star tool that I use. 1st Star - the traditional form. 2nd Star - the supplementary method, recent form. 3rd Star - the Saher cross-check. 4th Star - LTO value. 5th Star - ability. My way of working is to start with a shortlist of all 3rd Stars, all runners showing both form and ability (1st or 2nd Star and 3rd or 4th Star), any other "eye-catcher", typically including anything that won last time out. In this case my shortlist is not so short, with only 3 from 9 eliminated. I then sort my shortlist by ability. vanderwheil.com/media/uk//14-50 Haydock Van der Wheil_2.png[/img] Having got my shortlist, I now seek to confirm or reject on the evidence of last times out. I consider the distance, the going, the track type, weight, and the race class ratings (VDW style). vanderwheil.com/media/uk//14-50 Haydock Van der Wheil_3.png[/img] Here you can see some of the LTO info for each runner, most recent topmost, and left to right, race class and distance. There is more info, but in tooltips. I eliminate Rio de La Plata on the basis of distance. Fallen Idol goes the same way. My marked card now looks like this. vanderwheil.com/media/uk//14-50 Haydock Van der Wheil_4.png[/img] Les Fazzani dropping in both class and distance, and last twice out on this course and well suited to the going and trip, looks a good thing. I can overlook 4th LTO at a higher class, but recent form, is the only question I have. Green Moon is an obvious danger. Class Is Class has a claim, as well as the benefit of an apt name. But, all in all, I make LF the class/form horse. Of the others, RdLP is a threat if it can find the trip. LF is my selection, but I cannot make it a racing certainty and a VDW bet. Skyrack
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Post by Arkle55 on Aug 8, 2010 20:48:33 GMT
Southwell 3.00 9th August Veloso, Rock Soleil, Profit's Reality.
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Post by Les on Nov 12, 2010 12:24:08 GMT
2.25 cheltenham
perce rock..........78...........27.........17..........151.......71.........d rivaliste..............43...........10..........45..........146......74.........x keelaghan..........38............7...........23..........154......78.........d starof germany...26...........26..........11..........151......76.........d de boitron...........23...........5............6............151......76........c/d pocket aces........22...........23..........31...........154......77........x quito du tresor....20...........5............6............152......77.........d safari journey......20...........21..........17..........155......76........d daves dream.......16...........21...........45..........153......75........d grand lahou.........8............16............31..........154.....77.........d rookery rebel....../..............13............23..........148......74........x
column 1=money won divided by races ran column 2=consistency column 3=lto class of race column =4 racing post rating column5=daily mail rating column 6=course and distance
only one horse appears in top 4 ability,top 5 consistency,from top 4 races lto,top5 racing post,top 5 mail,and is a distance winner
keelaghan gets the vote
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Post by Les on Dec 3, 2010 12:10:07 GMT
4.45 wolvs
elijah peper a selection after some n/r,s
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Post by Les on Dec 18, 2010 10:44:57 GMT
desperate times,so desperate measures
12.30 southwell
je suis unrockstar......18.......6.......20......75.......76 dunmore boy.............13.......14.....13......63.......74 slatey hen..................20.......7.......17.....59........71 bachelor night............/..........9.......17.....67........76
with je suis showing an improving profile in the last 3 races top speed= 29,38,67 last 3 races rpr=40,60,68 last 3 runs slightly odds on would be a good price i think the only thing against is distance but its class may see it home unless fahey carves up the race and runs the guts out of it,you pays your money takes your chance
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Post by BC on Apr 9, 2011 13:27:50 GMT
Not necessarily VDW (I can't be doing with the AR/CR figures any more) but I've had a look at the Aintree 2:50 today and like the bookies (and everyone else by the look of it) can't see past Peddlers Cross and Binocular. PC holds most of the field, whilst B holds the rest. Both are proven at Aintree. Over the distance (first time for B) PC would be my single, but I'll always play safe! The dutch is currently 2/5. Is that value?
Whilst I'm writing, I noticed a two horse race at Lingfield (5:05) that caught my eye. The favourite, Advertisement, is 1/4, whist Son of Cat is 7/2. But the latter, who's not been out for a while, was running at a generally higher grade. No way to tell if SoC is fit, but if I were betting for fun, I'd be laying the fav. BC
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Post by BC on Apr 9, 2011 14:28:49 GMT
The dutch is currently 2/5. Is that value? Apparently not.
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Post by Les on Apr 23, 2011 8:52:57 GMT
the 3.10 sandown
baby run....109........3..........21........130.......146......164....77...-16 balthzars.....53........7...........9..........114.......127......156...74....-6 aimigayle....166.......8...........38........131.......150......160...75...+3 meanus d...240.......12.........11........116.......143.......157...74...+3 gentle r.......80........9............28.........97........118.......164...76...+5 poker de s...255......14.........12.........100.......116......161....76...+5 triggerman..75........5............11.........110......145.......166...78....+2
column 1=ability column2=consistency column3= adjusted lto class column4=lto speed column5=best speed column6=best handicap column7=mail column8=weight movement from lto
with baby run appearing in the top 3/4 in all columns and good speed lto and coming down 16lbs from lto from a goodish race lto its a selection along with the other speed horse aimgayle and triggerman with a 3 horse dutch see how it goes
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Post by Les on Apr 30, 2011 9:37:02 GMT
the 3.45 newmarket using only the mail keep it simple
astrolophysical jet........77.........5........105.........187 iver bridge lad..............67.........5..........95.........167 sole power...................78.........16........95..........189 borderlescott................73.........15........91..........179 prohit............................71.........10........94..........175 group therapy...............66.........13........86..........165 rain delayed..................70.........20........83...........173
column 1= mails rating column2= consistency column3= 33 minus consistency+mails rating column 4= sum of first 3 columns
with the paper favourite astrophysical jet within the top 5lbs of mail ratings,3 best consistent,and within the top of the other 2 columns its the single selection it looks a late improving 3-y-o so its win and loaded place till the season picks up see what o/t says this saturday
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Post by Les on May 14, 2011 7:28:30 GMT
3.10 Newbury dominant.......29........11.......71.......108........113.....78......+4....fav labrinto..........32.........9........77........87.........111.....76......-4.....2.fav al kazeem......42.........8........77........88.........109.....76......+5....3.fav fulgar.............38.........14......170......105.......108.....75......-7.....4.fav genral syn......0...........9........48........95.........107.....76......-11...5.fav lovin spirit.......51.........12.....198.......102.......107.....75......+7....6.fav class/form horse...........al kazeem speed/form horse.........dominant best ranked horse dominant selections both dominant and labarintos speed figures have improved from lto dominant +20 and labarinto +26 so back both see how it goes note to self must wait till class/form horse and speed form horse match up if i,d stuck to the same method in the next race it would have given me canford cliffs 4/5 class/form,speed/form and best ranked horse when your not doing the right things .....o well
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Post by Les on May 16, 2011 9:55:46 GMT
day off so go through 3.20 newton abbot
ghimaa...31.....28......7......119......142.....145.....168..78..+7....119 owen g....7......41.....16.....112......135.....129.....152..75..+2....123 stag ac....2......30......18....129......142......144.....157..77..-5.....127 cockney t.28....62......10.....138.....140......161.....163.77..+22..130 hunters v.28....88......19.....141.....141......155.....155..77...+6..122 rameses..2......27.......9.......93.......127......117.....151.65...-13..../
cockney trucker is the class/form horse and most figures support it bar one the weight rise a whopping 22lbs from lto not something i,d have a bet on most times but looking at its lto form 4th to overturn who went on to win on the flat cockney is moving down 25lbs in class but up 22 lbs in weight and at 11/1 is worth a win and loaded place trying to get back into vdw again
place pays 1.80 so 72 for my 10 win 40 place
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Post by BC on May 16, 2011 10:56:18 GMT
trying to get back into vdw again Ah... so you're the one! Good luck with it Les.
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Post by Les on May 21, 2011 10:27:03 GMT
try and get this right for royal ascot coming up the 2.0 haydock 70/79..brown p..90..6..90..77..95..102..+3 .....x....reflect......29..8..29..77..92..103..-1 51/79.wayward../....16.51..77..91..103..+1 44/81.cry fury...../.....12.17..76..51..98..+4 .....x....greyfriars.26...7..24..78..77..103..+4 ......x..viking.s......23..6...38..77..94..102..-5 .....x..whiplash.w./.....6...46..75..77....99..-7 brown panther is the class form horse improved speed lto in the best ability race and good supporting figures with rankings from the grid,1,1,1,2,1,2,5 it also has a good progressive profile....last 3 race ability figures= 1k.....4k......9k progressive speed.....62........70.......79 and progressive rpr.....72.........77.......84 so it looks a good vdw selection at 10/3 p.s dascombe got 2 winners at haydock yesterday step up and play each machine seems to say as we walk round and round the penny arcade
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Post by Old Timer on May 21, 2011 11:47:15 GMT
Good luck Les,
You should be safe, as I never looked at the race!
Oldtimer
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Post by Old Timer on May 21, 2011 17:11:41 GMT
Well done, that's they way to do it.
OT
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Post by Les on May 26, 2011 9:38:36 GMT
the 6.55 newcastle
dubia.d...235..5....6....79....91.....78......+16..........87/95 rio.c..........24..19..2.....73....61....76.......-7.............45/76 small.j.......46..18..2.....41....30....76......-10............xx rasselas...33...15..6....83...../.......75......+2.............? polish.w....32..21..2.....81....88.....75......-7..............x/69 xilerator..../.....10..4.....59....52.....76.......0..............x/44
class / form horse DUBIA DYNAMO best by far rankings 1,1,2,3,1,1,6 but it brings a question does a horse with such good figures but moving up so much in weight win enough?
checked its history and its 7,3,6,9,6,6 with 9st 7lbs or more on its back so maybe a false favorite here
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Post by Old Timer on May 26, 2011 12:31:38 GMT
I've only just had a quick look Les, having had DD the other day when it won. Down in class and distance, but up 16lbs to a weight he's unproven with.
Moreover, the latest price (7/4) is shorter than I'd be prepared to accept. So for me it's a race I'd pass over and move on.
Good luck if you go with it though
OT
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Post by Les on May 26, 2011 14:46:16 GMT
no o/t not going with it excusez moi the trainers other horse at the bottom of the weights a wee win loaded place just to watch the race
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Post by Les on May 28, 2011 8:30:59 GMT
hard to find what i,m looking for today but its saturday
3.35 haydock
regal parade......623.........11......567.......124.....125......78 beacon lodge.....210..........7.......170.......118......125.....72 the cheka............69...........9.......170.......113......108.....71 hih standing.......241..........16.....170.........89......105.....70
column,1=ability column,2=cons column,3=lto,class column,4=weights right from lto column,5=lto speed column,6=mail
regal parade a group1 winner and ayr gold cup horse seen it that day should slum it here and pick this race up no bother a single bet
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