Post by Old Timer on Apr 9, 2009 12:18:13 GMT
Election Day special, as I get the day off too!
Wincanton 3.20 Cl3 Hcap Chase 82/129 (119.5) 27.5f gd/fm – 8 Run
I Hear Thunder 11-10-11 OR 114
Win % 8% gd/fm 0/0 26/29f 1/3/10 Winc 1/2/7 RH 2/6/17 Gall 2/7/29
Tr 14d 0/6 Tr C 7/58 J 14d 2/7 J/C 2/14 J/Tr 2/21 J/H 0/2/2
Last HC win:
19 Nov ’06 376/130 (111.4) HC 21.5f gd Aint 12/1 11-2 (123) 1/20 7l Shannon’s Pride (-10) – [119.3] [-6]
chased leaders, led 2 out, stayed on strongly
Lto:
16 Mar 44/115 (103.3) HC 23.5f gd/sf Taunt 7/1 11-4 (112) 2/9 1.5l Cava Bien (+3) – [100.3] [7]
always prominent, ridden to lead 8th, kept on gamely when challenged from 3 out, headed run-in and just held on for 2nd
Cava Bien had previously finished 2l 1/12 in a 59/130 HH over 24.5f (CB)
It’s now 19 races since he last won and while it was an improved effort lto that was in lower class than he faces today. Unlikely winner.
Tom Sayers 11-11-11 OR 128
Win % 20% gd/fm 2/0/2 26/29f 4/4/15 Winc 4/2/11 RH 5/3/18 Gall 6/1/18
Tr 14d 4/31 Tr C 18/128 J 14d 1/23 J/C 0/1 J/Tr 17% J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
28 Oct ’07 188/135 (115.0) HC 27.5f gd Winc 10/1 11-7 (130) 1/11 2l Bowleaze (-4) – [118.1] [-2]
prominent, led 5th, ridden and hard pressed from 3 out, stayed on gamely to assert run-in, driven out
Lto:
21 Mar 125/139 (129.4) HC 24f gd Newb 14/1 11-3 (130) 5/11 8.25l Lyes Green (-6) – [126.2] [-2]
chased leaders, challenged from 13th to next, ridden 4 out, weakened after 2 out
Lyes Green previously PU in a 157/130 HC over 31f
This will only be the 5th run since his last win, as he missed the whole of last season and his Newbury outing was only the second of his comeback this year. Nevertheless, has a good record at Wincanton and won this race back in ’06 (off a mark of 111). Runs off a 2lb lower mark than for his last win and must have a chance in conditions that suit.
College Ace 8-11-8 OR 125
Win % 26% gd/fm 0/1/5 26/29f 0/0/1 Winc 0/1/2 RH 3/2/11 Gall 3/2/10
Tr 14d 2/4 Tr C 0/1 J 14d 0/9 J/C 3/41 J/Tr 6/76 J/H 3/0/7
Last HC win (lto):
09 Mar 78/118 (116.5) HC 23f gd/sf Strat 8/1 11-8 (117) 1/9 15l Gold Heart (+4) – [118.3] [8]
always prominent, led 4 out, 3 lengths ahead and ridden when left clear last
Gold Heart had previously finished 9.75l 4/10 in a 125/138 HC over 19.5f
Had been in good form earlier, winning twice in December before failing to handle his new mark at Ludlow in December. In good heart on his return from a break at Stratford at the beginning of last month. Will need to find some improvement here however, and not entirely sure that the fats ground and extended distance will suit.
Very Cool 7-11-1 OR 118
Win % 31% gd/fm 0/1/1 26/29f 0/0/1 Winc 0/0 RH 2/2/6 Gall 5/4/10
Tr 14d 3/43 Tr C 5/32 J 14d 0/5 J/C 0/27 J/Tr 12% J/H 5/3/10
Last HC win (2nd last):
27 Feb 65/122 (109.0) NHC 22.5f gd Newb 11/4F 10-8 (107) 1/9 1.25l South Bank (+1) – [98.8] [11]
made all, driven along from 4 out, stayed on gamely run-in, all out
Lto:
20 Mar 65/126 (118.6) NHC 22.5f gd Newb 3/1 10-13 (116) 2/7 5l Picts Hill (+8) – [113.3] [2]
led, ridden along from 10th, blundered 13th and headed approaching 4 out, hit 3 out, no impression on winner and under pressure when mistake last, edged left run-in but well clear of 3rd
Picts Hill had previously finished 24l 1/5 in a 67/116 NHC over 21f (CB)
Improving novice who goes well for today’s claimer. Looks as if going should suit, but not as sure about the distance, as he was tailed off behind Hello Bud on his only chase start beyond 22.5f at Fontwell in November. Would need to improve again in order to give Farrelly his first ever Wincanton winner.
Others:
Presenting Express (109.4) (1) – not getting any younger and winless since October ’06 (7 starts); however, fair effort at Huntingdon lto gives some hope his winning days may not be over.
Fine By Me (109.2) (3) – not won since scoring over 29f on fast ground at Warwick in March last year, 8 races back. However, hasn’t really had his conditions since, though better effort lto over 31f on gd. Runs here from 1lb out of the handicap, though that covered by his rider’s 3lb claim.
The winner must surely come from the five above, though which one is another problem. Nevertheless, it’s not hard to see why Tom Sayers is at the front of the market and he would be my choice.
Ludlow 4.00 Cl3 Hcap Chase 78/131 (123.4) 20f gd – 9 Run
Weights raised 4lbs
Black Hills 10-11-6 OR 125
Win % 15% gd 0/2/11 19/21f 2/4/16 Lud 0/0 RH 4/4/16 Gall 2/2/10
Tr 14d 0/3 Tr C 0/5 J 14d 2/6 J/C 9% J/Tr 3/92 J/H 3/5/14
Last HC win:
27 Nov ’07 75/134 (123.3) HC 20.5f gd/sf Kemp 8/1 11-5 (135) 1/10 3.5l John Diamond (-6) – [135.9] [-2]
blundered 8th in mid-division, headway 10th, challenged 3 out, led soon after, driven clear last, stayed on well
Lto:
23 Mar 75/129 (125.2) HC 20.5f gd Kemp 8/1 11-8 (125) 3/7 1.5l Kew Jumper (-10) – [124.1] [0]
mostly chased leader to 13th, ridden before 3 out, not quicken soon after, kept on again flat and nearly snatched 2nd
Sou’wester (+4) was 13.5l 4th & Dev (+2) was 49.5l 6th
Kew Jumper had previously finished 16l 4/9 in a 94/130 HC over 20.5f
Had shown little in 9 outings since winning at Kempton in November ’07, but put in a better display there lto. Would seem reasonably handicapped on that showing, although there’s no guarantee that he’ll give the same running again. Trainer seems to believe he’s better suited by these conditions, though his record would point to a liking of softer ground.
Supreme Duke 7-11-7 OR 126
Win % 22% gd 2/1/7 19/21f 1/0/4 Lud 1/0/1 RH 2/2/7 Gall 2/1/4
Tr 14d 4/31 Tr C 11/51 J 14d 3/33 J/C 24% J/Tr 21% J/H 2/2/6
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
23 Mar 67/127 NC 20.5f gd Kemp 7/4JF 11-4 (127) 3/4 5.25l Tarotino (0)
raced on outer, close up, not fluent 3rd, effort to challenge 13th, not quicken and held from 3 out, not fluent last and lost 2nd flat
Tarotino had previously finished 12l 1/4 in a 65 NC over 19f
Won a 63 NC over C&D here in February, but not as fluent at Kempton lto. Nevertheless, looks to be a useful recruit to the chasing game.
Others:
Prestbury Knight – won a couple of novice chases in the autumn of ’07, but not seen since that November. Interesting to see how he runs, but surely not a potential; winner!
Kilrogan – carries a 7lb penalty for an unexpected success in a 4-horse 71/129 HC on fm at Taunton lto, though his task was probably made easier by the departure of Bring Me Sunshine (+5) who UR mid-race. However, had shown absolutely nothing since his previous win in May last year, so I won’t be holding my breath for a repeat!
Fier Normand – only success over fences came in a beginners chase in October ’06, though to be fair he has been aimed at far higher targets than he faces today and has run the odd good race on occasions.
Again I would expect the winner to come from these five, with preference for Supreme Duke, though with some reservations as he’s yet to win a handicap chase.
So I guess that will do for today.
Oldtimer
Wincanton 3.20 Cl3 Hcap Chase 82/129 (119.5) 27.5f gd/fm – 8 Run
I Hear Thunder 11-10-11 OR 114
Win % 8% gd/fm 0/0 26/29f 1/3/10 Winc 1/2/7 RH 2/6/17 Gall 2/7/29
Tr 14d 0/6 Tr C 7/58 J 14d 2/7 J/C 2/14 J/Tr 2/21 J/H 0/2/2
Last HC win:
19 Nov ’06 376/130 (111.4) HC 21.5f gd Aint 12/1 11-2 (123) 1/20 7l Shannon’s Pride (-10) – [119.3] [-6]
chased leaders, led 2 out, stayed on strongly
Lto:
16 Mar 44/115 (103.3) HC 23.5f gd/sf Taunt 7/1 11-4 (112) 2/9 1.5l Cava Bien (+3) – [100.3] [7]
always prominent, ridden to lead 8th, kept on gamely when challenged from 3 out, headed run-in and just held on for 2nd
Cava Bien had previously finished 2l 1/12 in a 59/130 HH over 24.5f (CB)
It’s now 19 races since he last won and while it was an improved effort lto that was in lower class than he faces today. Unlikely winner.
Tom Sayers 11-11-11 OR 128
Win % 20% gd/fm 2/0/2 26/29f 4/4/15 Winc 4/2/11 RH 5/3/18 Gall 6/1/18
Tr 14d 4/31 Tr C 18/128 J 14d 1/23 J/C 0/1 J/Tr 17% J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
28 Oct ’07 188/135 (115.0) HC 27.5f gd Winc 10/1 11-7 (130) 1/11 2l Bowleaze (-4) – [118.1] [-2]
prominent, led 5th, ridden and hard pressed from 3 out, stayed on gamely to assert run-in, driven out
Lto:
21 Mar 125/139 (129.4) HC 24f gd Newb 14/1 11-3 (130) 5/11 8.25l Lyes Green (-6) – [126.2] [-2]
chased leaders, challenged from 13th to next, ridden 4 out, weakened after 2 out
Lyes Green previously PU in a 157/130 HC over 31f
This will only be the 5th run since his last win, as he missed the whole of last season and his Newbury outing was only the second of his comeback this year. Nevertheless, has a good record at Wincanton and won this race back in ’06 (off a mark of 111). Runs off a 2lb lower mark than for his last win and must have a chance in conditions that suit.
College Ace 8-11-8 OR 125
Win % 26% gd/fm 0/1/5 26/29f 0/0/1 Winc 0/1/2 RH 3/2/11 Gall 3/2/10
Tr 14d 2/4 Tr C 0/1 J 14d 0/9 J/C 3/41 J/Tr 6/76 J/H 3/0/7
Last HC win (lto):
09 Mar 78/118 (116.5) HC 23f gd/sf Strat 8/1 11-8 (117) 1/9 15l Gold Heart (+4) – [118.3] [8]
always prominent, led 4 out, 3 lengths ahead and ridden when left clear last
Gold Heart had previously finished 9.75l 4/10 in a 125/138 HC over 19.5f
Had been in good form earlier, winning twice in December before failing to handle his new mark at Ludlow in December. In good heart on his return from a break at Stratford at the beginning of last month. Will need to find some improvement here however, and not entirely sure that the fats ground and extended distance will suit.
Very Cool 7-11-1 OR 118
Win % 31% gd/fm 0/1/1 26/29f 0/0/1 Winc 0/0 RH 2/2/6 Gall 5/4/10
Tr 14d 3/43 Tr C 5/32 J 14d 0/5 J/C 0/27 J/Tr 12% J/H 5/3/10
Last HC win (2nd last):
27 Feb 65/122 (109.0) NHC 22.5f gd Newb 11/4F 10-8 (107) 1/9 1.25l South Bank (+1) – [98.8] [11]
made all, driven along from 4 out, stayed on gamely run-in, all out
Lto:
20 Mar 65/126 (118.6) NHC 22.5f gd Newb 3/1 10-13 (116) 2/7 5l Picts Hill (+8) – [113.3] [2]
led, ridden along from 10th, blundered 13th and headed approaching 4 out, hit 3 out, no impression on winner and under pressure when mistake last, edged left run-in but well clear of 3rd
Picts Hill had previously finished 24l 1/5 in a 67/116 NHC over 21f (CB)
Improving novice who goes well for today’s claimer. Looks as if going should suit, but not as sure about the distance, as he was tailed off behind Hello Bud on his only chase start beyond 22.5f at Fontwell in November. Would need to improve again in order to give Farrelly his first ever Wincanton winner.
Others:
Presenting Express (109.4) (1) – not getting any younger and winless since October ’06 (7 starts); however, fair effort at Huntingdon lto gives some hope his winning days may not be over.
Fine By Me (109.2) (3) – not won since scoring over 29f on fast ground at Warwick in March last year, 8 races back. However, hasn’t really had his conditions since, though better effort lto over 31f on gd. Runs here from 1lb out of the handicap, though that covered by his rider’s 3lb claim.
The winner must surely come from the five above, though which one is another problem. Nevertheless, it’s not hard to see why Tom Sayers is at the front of the market and he would be my choice.
Ludlow 4.00 Cl3 Hcap Chase 78/131 (123.4) 20f gd – 9 Run
Weights raised 4lbs
Black Hills 10-11-6 OR 125
Win % 15% gd 0/2/11 19/21f 2/4/16 Lud 0/0 RH 4/4/16 Gall 2/2/10
Tr 14d 0/3 Tr C 0/5 J 14d 2/6 J/C 9% J/Tr 3/92 J/H 3/5/14
Last HC win:
27 Nov ’07 75/134 (123.3) HC 20.5f gd/sf Kemp 8/1 11-5 (135) 1/10 3.5l John Diamond (-6) – [135.9] [-2]
blundered 8th in mid-division, headway 10th, challenged 3 out, led soon after, driven clear last, stayed on well
Lto:
23 Mar 75/129 (125.2) HC 20.5f gd Kemp 8/1 11-8 (125) 3/7 1.5l Kew Jumper (-10) – [124.1] [0]
mostly chased leader to 13th, ridden before 3 out, not quicken soon after, kept on again flat and nearly snatched 2nd
Sou’wester (+4) was 13.5l 4th & Dev (+2) was 49.5l 6th
Kew Jumper had previously finished 16l 4/9 in a 94/130 HC over 20.5f
Had shown little in 9 outings since winning at Kempton in November ’07, but put in a better display there lto. Would seem reasonably handicapped on that showing, although there’s no guarantee that he’ll give the same running again. Trainer seems to believe he’s better suited by these conditions, though his record would point to a liking of softer ground.
Supreme Duke 7-11-7 OR 126
Win % 22% gd 2/1/7 19/21f 1/0/4 Lud 1/0/1 RH 2/2/7 Gall 2/1/4
Tr 14d 4/31 Tr C 11/51 J 14d 3/33 J/C 24% J/Tr 21% J/H 2/2/6
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
23 Mar 67/127 NC 20.5f gd Kemp 7/4JF 11-4 (127) 3/4 5.25l Tarotino (0)
raced on outer, close up, not fluent 3rd, effort to challenge 13th, not quicken and held from 3 out, not fluent last and lost 2nd flat
Tarotino had previously finished 12l 1/4 in a 65 NC over 19f
Won a 63 NC over C&D here in February, but not as fluent at Kempton lto. Nevertheless, looks to be a useful recruit to the chasing game.
Others:
Prestbury Knight – won a couple of novice chases in the autumn of ’07, but not seen since that November. Interesting to see how he runs, but surely not a potential; winner!
Kilrogan – carries a 7lb penalty for an unexpected success in a 4-horse 71/129 HC on fm at Taunton lto, though his task was probably made easier by the departure of Bring Me Sunshine (+5) who UR mid-race. However, had shown absolutely nothing since his previous win in May last year, so I won’t be holding my breath for a repeat!
Fier Normand – only success over fences came in a beginners chase in October ’06, though to be fair he has been aimed at far higher targets than he faces today and has run the odd good race on occasions.
Again I would expect the winner to come from these five, with preference for Supreme Duke, though with some reservations as he’s yet to win a handicap chase.
So I guess that will do for today.
Oldtimer
