Post by Old Timer on Apr 4, 2009 11:46:01 GMT
Aintree 4.15 5070/158 (146.8) Hcap Chase 36f gd – 40 Run
Black Apalachi 10-11-5 OR 153 (13.0)
Win % 21% gd 0/1/7 gd/sf 0/0 26f+ 1/2/7 Aint 1/0/2 LH 1/0/5 Gall 1/0/3
18+ Run 1/3/10
Tr 14d 2/26 Tr C 1/4 J 14d 3/23 J/C 4/55 J/Tr 1/2 J/H 1/0/1
Last HC win:
23 Nov 676/159 (139.0) LiHC 26f hv Aint 15/2 10-5 (138) 1/13 74l Mr Pointment (+15) – [297.0]
with leader, led 6th (Chair), made rest, stayed on relentlessly to draw clear between last 2, jumped left last, kept on dourly
Lto:
21 Feb 284/157 Gr2C 25f sf Fairy 11/4 11-3 (146) 1/5 17l Snowy Morning (+5)
led from 3rd, joined 3 out, soon ridden and kept on well from 2 out, easily
Fell at the 2nd in this last year, but returned in November to slaughter the field in taking the Becher’s Chase in hv ground. Showed his well-being by scoring at Fairyhouse lto, comfortably taking care of Snowy Morning. Now runs off a 15lb higher mark than when taking the Becher’s however, which raises him above the normal weight range, plus he would prefer softer ground.
Rambling Minster 11-10-9 OR 143 (142.3) (1.0)
Win % 28% gd 3/1/10 gd/sf 3/0/11 26f+ 4/0/6 Aint 0/0/1 LH 8/2/24 Gall 5/0/16
18+ Run 1/0/4
Tr 14d 0/8 Tr C 0/4 J 14d 0/5 J/C 2/6 J/Tr 9% J/H 3/0/7
Last HC win (lto):
14 Feb 656/152 (140.4) Gr3HC 28f hv Hayd 18/1 11-0 (143) 1/16 3.5l Coe (-8) – [285.3]
held up, headway to track leaders 5th, led 11th, made rest, stayed on well to draw away run-in
Coe had previously finished 5l 1/14 in a 114/126 HC (CB)
Dour stayer who has won twice since the turn of the year. Haydock success was a definite step up on anything he’d previously shown.
My Will 9-11-4 OR 152 (140.5) (0)
Win % 25% gd 0/3/9 gd/sf 2/0/6 26f+ 1/4/8 Aint 0/2/3 LH 4/9/22 Gall 1/13/16
18+ Run 0/1/4
Tr 14d 5/34 Tr C 7/108 J 14d 7/35 J/C 23% J/Tr 29% J/H 5/8/19
Last HC win:
11 Nov ’06 342/156 (142.2) Gr3HC 27.5f gd/sf Chelt 9/2CoF 11-6 (150) 1/12 0.5l Idle Talk (-6) – [292.5]
blundered 2nd, tracked leaders and raced on outer, effort 2 out, chased leader before last, hard ridden and stayed on gamely to lead flat
Lto:
13 Mar 2708/182 Gr1C 26.5f gd/sf Chelt 100/1 11-10 (152) 5/16 23.5l Kauto Star (0)
in rear, some headway and hit 16th, staying on again when not fluent 4 out, kept on from 2 out but never in contention
Fine effort in the Gold Cup, improving on his effort behind KS two year’s ago, especially as he was absent last year. However, one has to wonder if this doesn’t come too soon after such a competitive race. Added to that, he’s over the ideal weight mark, plus is trained by Nicholls!
You can make cases for almost half the field, but I won’t waste further time searching for a needle in a haystack. Of the trio above that have the best VDW prospects, I’d go with Rambling Minster to give us a run and hopefully at least make the frame.
Aintree 3.25 Cl2 Hcap Chase 438/158 (139.1) 25f gd – 18 Run
Weights raised 1lb
Maljimar 9-10-10 OR 142 (138.9) (11.0)
Win % 18% gd 0/1/4 gd/sf 1/3/6 24/26f 0/1/2 Aint 0/0 LH 3/3/12 Gall 1/1/6
16+ Run 0/2/3
Tr 14d 0/1 Tr C 0/6 J 14d 2/16 J/C 1/13 J/Tr 17% J/H 1/1/4
Last HC win:
26 Jan ’08 314/145 (131.0) Gr3HC 21f gd/sf Chelt 11/2 10-7 (126) 1/11 11l Burntoakboy (-7) – [264.9]
towards rear, headway 11th, tracked leader when blundered 4 out, challenged 3 out, led before 2 out and soon clear, easily
Lto:
10 Mar 513/152 (142.7) Gr3HC 24.5f gd/sf Chelt 14/1 10-5 (138) 2/21 0.25 Wichita Lineman (+4) – [280.9]
held up in rear, hit 12th, blundered 15th, headway to chase leaders 4 out, challenged going well 2 out, soon led, ridden run-in, caught last strides
Good effort in the William Hill at the Festival on only his second start of the season. One suspects that any further rain would be a bonus, but must have a chance.
Three Mirrors 9-10-10 OR 142 (126.7) (0)
Win % 21% gd 0/3/7 gd/sf 2/3/8 24/26f 0/1/2 Aint 0/1/1 LH 3/4/15 Gall 3/1/7
16+ Run 1/2/8
Tr 14d 2/20 Tr C 4/60 J 14d 4/31 J/C 7% J/Tr 14% J/H 2/5/14
Last HC win:
18 Apr ‘08 188/138 (128.6) HC 20f gd/sf Ayr 6/1 11-12 (138) 1/9 2.75l Dear Villez (0) – [268.7]
held up, headway to chase leaders when hit 4 out, rallied and led approaching last, driven out
Lto:
12 Mar 513/153 (138.9) Gr3HC 21f gd/sf Chelt 9/1 11-1 (142) 4/23 21.5l Something Wells (-8) – [265.5]
in rear, headway 12th, hampered 4 out, hit 3 out, kept on but never in contention
Was 2nd to Oedipe in this last year off a 10lb lower mark prior to going on to winning at Ayr. Better effort at Cheltenham lto, but was not close enough to suggest that he might win this.
According To John 9-10-1 OR 133 (135.8) (-2.0)
Win % 55% gd 0/0/1 gd/sf 0/1/4 24/26f 0/1/4 Aint 0/0 LH 4/1/5 Gall 3/0/4
16+ Run 0/1/1
Tr 14d 1/13 Tr C 2/14 J 14d 3/29 J/C 3/77 J/Tr 0/0 J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
31 Jan 313/156 (139.3) HC 24.5f gd/sf Sand 12/1 10-5 (135) 4/9 9l Can’t Buy Time (-12) – [268.8]
held up in rear but in touch, hit 8th, headway 17th, ridden and outpaced 3 out, stayed on again run-in
Looked a promising novice in ‘06/’07 season, but missed most of last year and January run was first since November ’07. Reasonable effort under the circumstances and has been given time to recover. Interesting jockey booking in that this will be Scudamore’s first ride for the Richards’ stable.
Peter Pole 6-10-0 OR 130 (2lbs ooh) (98.7) (27.0)
Win % 60% gd 3/0/3 gd/sf 0/0 24/26f 1/0/1 Aint 0/0 LH 1/0/1 Gall 0/0
16+ Run 0/0
Tr 14d 2/17 Tr C 1/2 J 14d 5/38 J/C 11% J/Tr 19/76 J/H 1/0/1
Last HC win (lto):
24 Mar 65/120 (110.0) HC 20.5f gd South 2/9F 11-7 (115) 1/6 5l Tarabaloo (-13) – [228.7]
made all, hit 11th, clear after 3 out, eased towards finish
Ex-French that has won both his UK starts to date with some ease. However, this is a massive rise in class today.
Again there are a number of others that also warrant consideration, including Crescent Island who finished 3rd to Chapoturgepn in the Jewson at the Festival, Island Flyer if forgiving his Hennessy effort, and possibly Aimigayle. From my point of view however, the above quartet looks more likely to supply the winner, with preference for Maljimar and According To John.
Newcastle 2.35 Cl2 Hcap 112/98 (91.1) 7f gd – 10 Run
Giganticus 6-9-2 OR 96 Dr 4
Win % 18% gd/fm 1/1/6 7f 3/4/16 Nwcs 1/0/1
Tr 14d 7/21 Tr C 1/11 J 14d 8/19 J/C 12/34 J/Tr 14% J/H 3/3/15
Won this 2 years ago and last win was at Newmarket that August when he beat Ceremonial Jade by 1.25l when giving him 8lbs. Failed to score last season, but mark has dropped to 2lbs below that at Newmarket and he ran well enough on his AW bow at Lingfield a fortnight ago.
Mister Hardy 4-8-9 OR 89 (6lbs ex) Dr 8
Win % 17% gd/fm 1/0/4 7f 11/2/5 Nwcs 2/0/3
Tr 14d 3/23 Tr C 14/168 J 14d 4/26 J/C 11% J/Tr 13% J/H 1/1/9
Impressive winner at Doncaster last week when stepped back up to 7f and the handicapper is likely to raise him more than the 6lb penalty he carries. However, he is up two classes today and has never won above class 4 before.
Very quick look at this, but I feel that Giganticus is likely to offer better value than Mister Hardy.
Lingfield 2.45 Cl2 Hcap 117/103 (91.6) 12f AW – 9 Run
4yo = 1lb wfa allowance
This looks far too muddled a race for me to sort out anything at all, as none has yet won in this class on the AW. That suggest it may be open for one of the young improvers to make his mark. However, the best move seems to be to leave well alone!
Oldtimer
Black Apalachi 10-11-5 OR 153 (13.0)
Win % 21% gd 0/1/7 gd/sf 0/0 26f+ 1/2/7 Aint 1/0/2 LH 1/0/5 Gall 1/0/3
18+ Run 1/3/10
Tr 14d 2/26 Tr C 1/4 J 14d 3/23 J/C 4/55 J/Tr 1/2 J/H 1/0/1
Last HC win:
23 Nov 676/159 (139.0) LiHC 26f hv Aint 15/2 10-5 (138) 1/13 74l Mr Pointment (+15) – [297.0]
with leader, led 6th (Chair), made rest, stayed on relentlessly to draw clear between last 2, jumped left last, kept on dourly
Lto:
21 Feb 284/157 Gr2C 25f sf Fairy 11/4 11-3 (146) 1/5 17l Snowy Morning (+5)
led from 3rd, joined 3 out, soon ridden and kept on well from 2 out, easily
Fell at the 2nd in this last year, but returned in November to slaughter the field in taking the Becher’s Chase in hv ground. Showed his well-being by scoring at Fairyhouse lto, comfortably taking care of Snowy Morning. Now runs off a 15lb higher mark than when taking the Becher’s however, which raises him above the normal weight range, plus he would prefer softer ground.
Rambling Minster 11-10-9 OR 143 (142.3) (1.0)
Win % 28% gd 3/1/10 gd/sf 3/0/11 26f+ 4/0/6 Aint 0/0/1 LH 8/2/24 Gall 5/0/16
18+ Run 1/0/4
Tr 14d 0/8 Tr C 0/4 J 14d 0/5 J/C 2/6 J/Tr 9% J/H 3/0/7
Last HC win (lto):
14 Feb 656/152 (140.4) Gr3HC 28f hv Hayd 18/1 11-0 (143) 1/16 3.5l Coe (-8) – [285.3]
held up, headway to track leaders 5th, led 11th, made rest, stayed on well to draw away run-in
Coe had previously finished 5l 1/14 in a 114/126 HC (CB)
Dour stayer who has won twice since the turn of the year. Haydock success was a definite step up on anything he’d previously shown.
My Will 9-11-4 OR 152 (140.5) (0)
Win % 25% gd 0/3/9 gd/sf 2/0/6 26f+ 1/4/8 Aint 0/2/3 LH 4/9/22 Gall 1/13/16
18+ Run 0/1/4
Tr 14d 5/34 Tr C 7/108 J 14d 7/35 J/C 23% J/Tr 29% J/H 5/8/19
Last HC win:
11 Nov ’06 342/156 (142.2) Gr3HC 27.5f gd/sf Chelt 9/2CoF 11-6 (150) 1/12 0.5l Idle Talk (-6) – [292.5]
blundered 2nd, tracked leaders and raced on outer, effort 2 out, chased leader before last, hard ridden and stayed on gamely to lead flat
Lto:
13 Mar 2708/182 Gr1C 26.5f gd/sf Chelt 100/1 11-10 (152) 5/16 23.5l Kauto Star (0)
in rear, some headway and hit 16th, staying on again when not fluent 4 out, kept on from 2 out but never in contention
Fine effort in the Gold Cup, improving on his effort behind KS two year’s ago, especially as he was absent last year. However, one has to wonder if this doesn’t come too soon after such a competitive race. Added to that, he’s over the ideal weight mark, plus is trained by Nicholls!
You can make cases for almost half the field, but I won’t waste further time searching for a needle in a haystack. Of the trio above that have the best VDW prospects, I’d go with Rambling Minster to give us a run and hopefully at least make the frame.
Aintree 3.25 Cl2 Hcap Chase 438/158 (139.1) 25f gd – 18 Run
Weights raised 1lb
Maljimar 9-10-10 OR 142 (138.9) (11.0)
Win % 18% gd 0/1/4 gd/sf 1/3/6 24/26f 0/1/2 Aint 0/0 LH 3/3/12 Gall 1/1/6
16+ Run 0/2/3
Tr 14d 0/1 Tr C 0/6 J 14d 2/16 J/C 1/13 J/Tr 17% J/H 1/1/4
Last HC win:
26 Jan ’08 314/145 (131.0) Gr3HC 21f gd/sf Chelt 11/2 10-7 (126) 1/11 11l Burntoakboy (-7) – [264.9]
towards rear, headway 11th, tracked leader when blundered 4 out, challenged 3 out, led before 2 out and soon clear, easily
Lto:
10 Mar 513/152 (142.7) Gr3HC 24.5f gd/sf Chelt 14/1 10-5 (138) 2/21 0.25 Wichita Lineman (+4) – [280.9]
held up in rear, hit 12th, blundered 15th, headway to chase leaders 4 out, challenged going well 2 out, soon led, ridden run-in, caught last strides
Good effort in the William Hill at the Festival on only his second start of the season. One suspects that any further rain would be a bonus, but must have a chance.
Three Mirrors 9-10-10 OR 142 (126.7) (0)
Win % 21% gd 0/3/7 gd/sf 2/3/8 24/26f 0/1/2 Aint 0/1/1 LH 3/4/15 Gall 3/1/7
16+ Run 1/2/8
Tr 14d 2/20 Tr C 4/60 J 14d 4/31 J/C 7% J/Tr 14% J/H 2/5/14
Last HC win:
18 Apr ‘08 188/138 (128.6) HC 20f gd/sf Ayr 6/1 11-12 (138) 1/9 2.75l Dear Villez (0) – [268.7]
held up, headway to chase leaders when hit 4 out, rallied and led approaching last, driven out
Lto:
12 Mar 513/153 (138.9) Gr3HC 21f gd/sf Chelt 9/1 11-1 (142) 4/23 21.5l Something Wells (-8) – [265.5]
in rear, headway 12th, hampered 4 out, hit 3 out, kept on but never in contention
Was 2nd to Oedipe in this last year off a 10lb lower mark prior to going on to winning at Ayr. Better effort at Cheltenham lto, but was not close enough to suggest that he might win this.
According To John 9-10-1 OR 133 (135.8) (-2.0)
Win % 55% gd 0/0/1 gd/sf 0/1/4 24/26f 0/1/4 Aint 0/0 LH 4/1/5 Gall 3/0/4
16+ Run 0/1/1
Tr 14d 1/13 Tr C 2/14 J 14d 3/29 J/C 3/77 J/Tr 0/0 J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
31 Jan 313/156 (139.3) HC 24.5f gd/sf Sand 12/1 10-5 (135) 4/9 9l Can’t Buy Time (-12) – [268.8]
held up in rear but in touch, hit 8th, headway 17th, ridden and outpaced 3 out, stayed on again run-in
Looked a promising novice in ‘06/’07 season, but missed most of last year and January run was first since November ’07. Reasonable effort under the circumstances and has been given time to recover. Interesting jockey booking in that this will be Scudamore’s first ride for the Richards’ stable.
Peter Pole 6-10-0 OR 130 (2lbs ooh) (98.7) (27.0)
Win % 60% gd 3/0/3 gd/sf 0/0 24/26f 1/0/1 Aint 0/0 LH 1/0/1 Gall 0/0
16+ Run 0/0
Tr 14d 2/17 Tr C 1/2 J 14d 5/38 J/C 11% J/Tr 19/76 J/H 1/0/1
Last HC win (lto):
24 Mar 65/120 (110.0) HC 20.5f gd South 2/9F 11-7 (115) 1/6 5l Tarabaloo (-13) – [228.7]
made all, hit 11th, clear after 3 out, eased towards finish
Ex-French that has won both his UK starts to date with some ease. However, this is a massive rise in class today.
Again there are a number of others that also warrant consideration, including Crescent Island who finished 3rd to Chapoturgepn in the Jewson at the Festival, Island Flyer if forgiving his Hennessy effort, and possibly Aimigayle. From my point of view however, the above quartet looks more likely to supply the winner, with preference for Maljimar and According To John.
Newcastle 2.35 Cl2 Hcap 112/98 (91.1) 7f gd – 10 Run
Giganticus 6-9-2 OR 96 Dr 4
Win % 18% gd/fm 1/1/6 7f 3/4/16 Nwcs 1/0/1
Tr 14d 7/21 Tr C 1/11 J 14d 8/19 J/C 12/34 J/Tr 14% J/H 3/3/15
Won this 2 years ago and last win was at Newmarket that August when he beat Ceremonial Jade by 1.25l when giving him 8lbs. Failed to score last season, but mark has dropped to 2lbs below that at Newmarket and he ran well enough on his AW bow at Lingfield a fortnight ago.
Mister Hardy 4-8-9 OR 89 (6lbs ex) Dr 8
Win % 17% gd/fm 1/0/4 7f 11/2/5 Nwcs 2/0/3
Tr 14d 3/23 Tr C 14/168 J 14d 4/26 J/C 11% J/Tr 13% J/H 1/1/9
Impressive winner at Doncaster last week when stepped back up to 7f and the handicapper is likely to raise him more than the 6lb penalty he carries. However, he is up two classes today and has never won above class 4 before.
Very quick look at this, but I feel that Giganticus is likely to offer better value than Mister Hardy.
Lingfield 2.45 Cl2 Hcap 117/103 (91.6) 12f AW – 9 Run
4yo = 1lb wfa allowance
This looks far too muddled a race for me to sort out anything at all, as none has yet won in this class on the AW. That suggest it may be open for one of the young improvers to make his mark. However, the best move seems to be to leave well alone!
Oldtimer
