Post by Old Timer on Mar 28, 2009 12:57:06 GMT
Doncaster 3.55 Cl2 Hcap 779/108 (99.5) 8f gd/fm – 22 Run
Last year – 779/110 (100.2) gd/sf 21 ran
Smokey Oakey 10/1 4-8-9 (95) Dr 12 by 1.25l from Blythe Knight 22/1 8-9-3 (110) Dr 2
European Dream 12/1 5-9-3 (103) Dr 20 was 13.7l 13th
Swop 6-9-6 OR 105 (5lbs ex) Dr 15 (96.9) (10)
Win % 33% gd/fm 1/1/2 8f 2/2/6 Donc 1/0/1 18+ Run 0/2/2
Tr 14d 0/0 Tr C 5/27 J 14d 3/18 J/C 8% J/Tr 18% J/H 0/0
Last hcap win (lto):
19 Feb 500/108 (101.9) Hcap 7.5f gd Nad 9/2 8-10 (100) 1dh/10 Yamal (+3) – [201.9]
settled in last, still in rear 3f out, ran on strongly final 1 1/2f, led close home
Unraced till winning a mdn on the AW at Lingfield as a 4yo. Not seen then until last year when in a light campaign (4 races) he won over C&D here on gd/fm in June. Had 3 races in the Gulf this winter to get him into shape and carries a 6lb penalty for dead-heating with Yamal there last month. Course, distance and going no problem, plus is proven with the weight. Negatives from a statistical standpoint are age (though lightly raced) and weight.
Titan Triumph 5-8-11 OR 96 (5lbs ex) Dr 22 (90.0) (7.7)
Win % 28% gd/fm 0/1/4 8f 5/3/12 Donc 0/0 18+ Run 0/0/1
Tr 14d 0/0 Tr C 0/0 J 14d 5/24 J/C 1/21 J/Tr 8/11 J/H 4/1/5
Last hcap win (lto):
14 Feb 115/99 (93.5) Hcap 8f AW Ling 2/1F 8-10 (91) 1/6 1.25l Majuro (+4) – [186.8]
held up in last place, came wide and headway over 1f out, driven to lead inside final furlong, ran on well, driven out
Majuro had previously finished 1.25l 2/7 in a 117/104 Hcap
Has had a career on the AW this winter, winning 5 out of 6 starts and being beaten a nose in the other, rising from a mark of 70 to 96 in the process. Whether he can transfer that form to turf is another matter however, as he is only 1/1/10 on turf (however was only 1/4/10 on the AW before this winter).
Others:
Flipando (90.8) (2.7) – won the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton three weeks ago, but will meet Ace Of Hearts on 7lbs worse terms today. Runs off the same mark as when 2nd in the Hunt Cup two years ago and will not be troubled by course, distance, going or weight. However, is thoroughly exposed and hard to see improvement as an 8yo.
Ace Of Hearts (95.2) (-1.7) – gallant veteran who showed he’s lost none of his desire for racing when chasing Flipando home at Wolverhampton. Weighted to reverse that running, but it would be asking a lot to win this at the sprightly old age of 10.
Expresso Star (82.2) (11.5) – impressive last autumn, picking up a hat-trick of wins over further on soft ground. Not a certain runner, as the drop back in trip on fast ground does not play to his strengths.
Charm School (86.8) (10.5) – stablemate of Expresso Star and won mdn over 7f on sf ground here at same meeting last year. Didn’t win again in 4 starts, bu decent placed efforts in the 3 on turf. However, has yet to show he can act on fast ground, plus a major negative he has to overcome is to be the first Lincoln winner than had not previously won over at least 8f.
Not a race where anything falls out for me, as I believe that Swop has too much weight and worry about Titan Triumph’s new-found form being on the AW. Age has me ruling out both Flipando and Ace Of Hearts, while the going would seem to be against the inexperienced Gosden pair, plus Charm School has yet to win at 8f. So, just to have an interest I would suggest small e/w bets on Titan Triumph and Zaahid.
Doncaster 2.45 Cl2 Hcap 312/94 (81.0) 8f gd/fm – 22 Run (21 at most)
Last year – 249/94 (89.3) gd/sf 21 Ran
Don’t Panic 13/2 4-9-8 (92) Dr 17 by 4l from Benandonner 16/1 5-9-5 (89) Dr 4
Spectait 7-9-7 OR 92 (5lbs ex) Dr 22 (85.7) (4.9)
Win % 40% gd/fm 1/0/1 8f 1/1/5 Donc 0/0 18+ Run 0/0/1
Tr 14d 0/2 Tr C 0/6 J 14d 1/20 J/C 0/3 J/Tr 1/13 J/H 0/0
Last hcap win (lto):
05 Mar 74/93 (85.6) Hcap 9.5f AW Wolv 5/4F 8-12 (87) 1/8 3.25l Dream Of Fortune (-6) – [177.7]
held up in mid-division, steady progress over 4f out, led 1f out, driven out
Dream Of Fortune had previously finished 0.25l 1/7 in a 49/82 Hcap
Has enjoyed himself at Wolverhampton since the turn of the year, winning three on the trot. Capable of fast ground too, as he won the Golden Mile at Goodwood back in ’06 off a mark of 95. No reason that he shouldn’t go well
Flowing Cape 4-9-4 OR 89 Dr 13 (96.4) (-2.9) NR!
Win % 22% gd/fm 0/1/4 8f 0/0 Donc 0/1/1 18+ Run 0/0
Tr 14d 0/12 Tr C 5/48 J 14d 0/11 J/C 5% J/Tr 2/17 J/H 2/0/2
Last hcap win (2nd last):
17 Feb 125/97 (90.0) Hcap 6f AW Wolv 7/2 8-11 (90) 1/11 0.5l Methaaly (-12) – [181.3]
always prominent, led well over 1f out, soon shaken up, pushed out
Lto:
07 Mar 312/100 (94.5) Hcap 8.5f AW Wolv 6/1 9-5 (95) 5/13 2.3l Flipando (-2) – [185.4]
alway prominent, ridden to chase leader 2f out, soon every chance, stayed on same pace inside final furlong
Flipando had previously finished 0.75 2/11 in a 117/95 Hcap
Had found some form on the AW at Wolverhampton since the turn of the year, though didn’t appear to appreciate the step up in distance there lto. Whether he can transfer that form back to turf is another matter, though has been lightly raced.
Mangham 4-9-9 OR 99 Dr 3 (74.9) (10.9)
Win % 27% gd/fm 1/1/2 8f 2/1/4 Donc 0/0 18+ Run 0/0
Tr 14d 0/1 Tr C 0/0 J 14d 1/13 J/C 3/93 J/Tr 4/29 J/H 3/3/8
Last hcap win (2nd last):
06 Oct 93/90 (86.4) Hcap 8f gd Pont 11/1 8-11 (83) 1/11 1l Jack Dawkins (+6) – [171.3]
close up on inner until led after 1f, ridden along well over 1f out, driven and kept on well final furlong
Lto:
27 Oct 78/90 (85.8) Hcap 8.5f gd/sf Leic 8/1 9-3 (89) 2/13 0.5l Axiom (-1) – [173.9]
broke well, steadied and lost place over 6f out, headway 2f out, ridden to chase winner final furlong, edged right, stayed on
Had a consistent 3yo season save for a poor effort in the Ripon Rowels in August. However, the handicapper has raised him 10lbs for his final effort at Leicester at the end of October and while he won first time out last year he has a career high weight to carry today.
There are several others you could give chance to, but I wouldn’t be backing Fireside with your money let along mine; two outings as a 2yo and then finished last in the 2000 Guineas and yet he’s forecast favourite for this! Nothing really appeals, but I’d be loath to let Spectait run free.
Kempton 3.00 Cl2 Hcap 249/98 (90.3) 11f AW – 16 Run
4yo = 1lb wfa allowance
Last year – 218/103 (91.8) 14 Ran
Philatelist 5/2F 4-9-1 (94) Dr 6 by 0.5l from Mr Aviator 13/2 4-8-11 (95) Dr 10
King Olav 4-8-12 OR 87 Dr 1 (88.1) (5.8)
Win % 33% AW 2/1/3 10/12f 2/3/6 Kemp 1/1/2
Tr 14d 0/11 Tr C 17/142 J 14d 5/36 J/C 13% J/Tr 10% J/H 1/1/2
Last hcap win (2nd last):
14 Feb 47/82 (78.0) Hcap 10f AW Ling 12/1 9-5 (84) 1/9 1.25l Basra (-1) – [163.9]
chased clear leader after 1f, ridden 4f out, closed over 3f out, ridden to lead well over 1f out, hard pressed inside final furlong, stayed on well to assert towards finish
Lto:
11 Mar 112/104 (92.9) Hcap 11f AW Kemp 14/1 8-4 (86) 2/9 2.75l Philatelist (+14) – [175.1]
chased leaders, ridden just over 2f out, no chance with winner final furlong but plugged on to go 2nd inside final furlong
Robby Bobby (+9) was 5l 4th
Raised 1lb for latest effort over C&D here when 2nd to last year’s winner.
Cape Express 4-9-7 OR 96 Dr 14 (76.8) (8.5)
Win % 67% AW 22/0/3 10/12f 2/0/2 Kemp 0/0
Tr 14d 0/0 Tr C 13/59 J 14d 0/0 J/C 18% J/Tr 20% J/H 0/0
Last hcap win (lto):
07 Jan 49/85 (82.3) Hcap 12f AW Wolv 11/8F 9-0 (83) 1/7 6l Heathyards Pride (+1) – [172.8]
led 3f, chased leader, led 3f out, ridden and edged left 2f out, edged left just inside final furlong, driven clear
Obvious improver, winning 2 of 3 starts to date and from stable of last year’s winner.
Plenty of others with claims such as Stand Guard, Swiss Prince, Whitcombe Minster, Opera Prince and possibly Brouhaha. However, these are the two that interest me most and at the price I prefer King Olav to perhaps make the frame.
Kempton 5.20 Cl2 Hcap 112/103 (91.4) 16f AW – 14 Run (12 at best)
4yo = 5lb wfa allowance
Last year – 100/94 (84.7) 7 Ran
Calculating 100/30 4-8-9 (83) Dr 7 by 0.75l from Buster Hyvonen 5/2 6-8-12 (81) Dr 3
Not much time to look at this, but I would expect this to go to one of the younger horses. Meshtri and Downhiller would seem to have the best claims providing they are fit for their season openers with Meshtri getting the nod.
Well I guess that will do for the opening day of the Flat Season, and fingers crossed that one of them might run into the frame
Oldtimer
Last year – 779/110 (100.2) gd/sf 21 ran
Smokey Oakey 10/1 4-8-9 (95) Dr 12 by 1.25l from Blythe Knight 22/1 8-9-3 (110) Dr 2
European Dream 12/1 5-9-3 (103) Dr 20 was 13.7l 13th
Swop 6-9-6 OR 105 (5lbs ex) Dr 15 (96.9) (10)
Win % 33% gd/fm 1/1/2 8f 2/2/6 Donc 1/0/1 18+ Run 0/2/2
Tr 14d 0/0 Tr C 5/27 J 14d 3/18 J/C 8% J/Tr 18% J/H 0/0
Last hcap win (lto):
19 Feb 500/108 (101.9) Hcap 7.5f gd Nad 9/2 8-10 (100) 1dh/10 Yamal (+3) – [201.9]
settled in last, still in rear 3f out, ran on strongly final 1 1/2f, led close home
Unraced till winning a mdn on the AW at Lingfield as a 4yo. Not seen then until last year when in a light campaign (4 races) he won over C&D here on gd/fm in June. Had 3 races in the Gulf this winter to get him into shape and carries a 6lb penalty for dead-heating with Yamal there last month. Course, distance and going no problem, plus is proven with the weight. Negatives from a statistical standpoint are age (though lightly raced) and weight.
Titan Triumph 5-8-11 OR 96 (5lbs ex) Dr 22 (90.0) (7.7)
Win % 28% gd/fm 0/1/4 8f 5/3/12 Donc 0/0 18+ Run 0/0/1
Tr 14d 0/0 Tr C 0/0 J 14d 5/24 J/C 1/21 J/Tr 8/11 J/H 4/1/5
Last hcap win (lto):
14 Feb 115/99 (93.5) Hcap 8f AW Ling 2/1F 8-10 (91) 1/6 1.25l Majuro (+4) – [186.8]
held up in last place, came wide and headway over 1f out, driven to lead inside final furlong, ran on well, driven out
Majuro had previously finished 1.25l 2/7 in a 117/104 Hcap
Has had a career on the AW this winter, winning 5 out of 6 starts and being beaten a nose in the other, rising from a mark of 70 to 96 in the process. Whether he can transfer that form to turf is another matter however, as he is only 1/1/10 on turf (however was only 1/4/10 on the AW before this winter).
Others:
Flipando (90.8) (2.7) – won the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton three weeks ago, but will meet Ace Of Hearts on 7lbs worse terms today. Runs off the same mark as when 2nd in the Hunt Cup two years ago and will not be troubled by course, distance, going or weight. However, is thoroughly exposed and hard to see improvement as an 8yo.
Ace Of Hearts (95.2) (-1.7) – gallant veteran who showed he’s lost none of his desire for racing when chasing Flipando home at Wolverhampton. Weighted to reverse that running, but it would be asking a lot to win this at the sprightly old age of 10.
Expresso Star (82.2) (11.5) – impressive last autumn, picking up a hat-trick of wins over further on soft ground. Not a certain runner, as the drop back in trip on fast ground does not play to his strengths.
Charm School (86.8) (10.5) – stablemate of Expresso Star and won mdn over 7f on sf ground here at same meeting last year. Didn’t win again in 4 starts, bu decent placed efforts in the 3 on turf. However, has yet to show he can act on fast ground, plus a major negative he has to overcome is to be the first Lincoln winner than had not previously won over at least 8f.
Not a race where anything falls out for me, as I believe that Swop has too much weight and worry about Titan Triumph’s new-found form being on the AW. Age has me ruling out both Flipando and Ace Of Hearts, while the going would seem to be against the inexperienced Gosden pair, plus Charm School has yet to win at 8f. So, just to have an interest I would suggest small e/w bets on Titan Triumph and Zaahid.
Doncaster 2.45 Cl2 Hcap 312/94 (81.0) 8f gd/fm – 22 Run (21 at most)
Last year – 249/94 (89.3) gd/sf 21 Ran
Don’t Panic 13/2 4-9-8 (92) Dr 17 by 4l from Benandonner 16/1 5-9-5 (89) Dr 4
Spectait 7-9-7 OR 92 (5lbs ex) Dr 22 (85.7) (4.9)
Win % 40% gd/fm 1/0/1 8f 1/1/5 Donc 0/0 18+ Run 0/0/1
Tr 14d 0/2 Tr C 0/6 J 14d 1/20 J/C 0/3 J/Tr 1/13 J/H 0/0
Last hcap win (lto):
05 Mar 74/93 (85.6) Hcap 9.5f AW Wolv 5/4F 8-12 (87) 1/8 3.25l Dream Of Fortune (-6) – [177.7]
held up in mid-division, steady progress over 4f out, led 1f out, driven out
Dream Of Fortune had previously finished 0.25l 1/7 in a 49/82 Hcap
Has enjoyed himself at Wolverhampton since the turn of the year, winning three on the trot. Capable of fast ground too, as he won the Golden Mile at Goodwood back in ’06 off a mark of 95. No reason that he shouldn’t go well
Flowing Cape 4-9-4 OR 89 Dr 13 (96.4) (-2.9) NR!
Win % 22% gd/fm 0/1/4 8f 0/0 Donc 0/1/1 18+ Run 0/0
Tr 14d 0/12 Tr C 5/48 J 14d 0/11 J/C 5% J/Tr 2/17 J/H 2/0/2
Last hcap win (2nd last):
17 Feb 125/97 (90.0) Hcap 6f AW Wolv 7/2 8-11 (90) 1/11 0.5l Methaaly (-12) – [181.3]
always prominent, led well over 1f out, soon shaken up, pushed out
Lto:
07 Mar 312/100 (94.5) Hcap 8.5f AW Wolv 6/1 9-5 (95) 5/13 2.3l Flipando (-2) – [185.4]
alway prominent, ridden to chase leader 2f out, soon every chance, stayed on same pace inside final furlong
Flipando had previously finished 0.75 2/11 in a 117/95 Hcap
Had found some form on the AW at Wolverhampton since the turn of the year, though didn’t appear to appreciate the step up in distance there lto. Whether he can transfer that form back to turf is another matter, though has been lightly raced.
Mangham 4-9-9 OR 99 Dr 3 (74.9) (10.9)
Win % 27% gd/fm 1/1/2 8f 2/1/4 Donc 0/0 18+ Run 0/0
Tr 14d 0/1 Tr C 0/0 J 14d 1/13 J/C 3/93 J/Tr 4/29 J/H 3/3/8
Last hcap win (2nd last):
06 Oct 93/90 (86.4) Hcap 8f gd Pont 11/1 8-11 (83) 1/11 1l Jack Dawkins (+6) – [171.3]
close up on inner until led after 1f, ridden along well over 1f out, driven and kept on well final furlong
Lto:
27 Oct 78/90 (85.8) Hcap 8.5f gd/sf Leic 8/1 9-3 (89) 2/13 0.5l Axiom (-1) – [173.9]
broke well, steadied and lost place over 6f out, headway 2f out, ridden to chase winner final furlong, edged right, stayed on
Had a consistent 3yo season save for a poor effort in the Ripon Rowels in August. However, the handicapper has raised him 10lbs for his final effort at Leicester at the end of October and while he won first time out last year he has a career high weight to carry today.
There are several others you could give chance to, but I wouldn’t be backing Fireside with your money let along mine; two outings as a 2yo and then finished last in the 2000 Guineas and yet he’s forecast favourite for this! Nothing really appeals, but I’d be loath to let Spectait run free.
Kempton 3.00 Cl2 Hcap 249/98 (90.3) 11f AW – 16 Run
4yo = 1lb wfa allowance
Last year – 218/103 (91.8) 14 Ran
Philatelist 5/2F 4-9-1 (94) Dr 6 by 0.5l from Mr Aviator 13/2 4-8-11 (95) Dr 10
King Olav 4-8-12 OR 87 Dr 1 (88.1) (5.8)
Win % 33% AW 2/1/3 10/12f 2/3/6 Kemp 1/1/2
Tr 14d 0/11 Tr C 17/142 J 14d 5/36 J/C 13% J/Tr 10% J/H 1/1/2
Last hcap win (2nd last):
14 Feb 47/82 (78.0) Hcap 10f AW Ling 12/1 9-5 (84) 1/9 1.25l Basra (-1) – [163.9]
chased clear leader after 1f, ridden 4f out, closed over 3f out, ridden to lead well over 1f out, hard pressed inside final furlong, stayed on well to assert towards finish
Lto:
11 Mar 112/104 (92.9) Hcap 11f AW Kemp 14/1 8-4 (86) 2/9 2.75l Philatelist (+14) – [175.1]
chased leaders, ridden just over 2f out, no chance with winner final furlong but plugged on to go 2nd inside final furlong
Robby Bobby (+9) was 5l 4th
Raised 1lb for latest effort over C&D here when 2nd to last year’s winner.
Cape Express 4-9-7 OR 96 Dr 14 (76.8) (8.5)
Win % 67% AW 22/0/3 10/12f 2/0/2 Kemp 0/0
Tr 14d 0/0 Tr C 13/59 J 14d 0/0 J/C 18% J/Tr 20% J/H 0/0
Last hcap win (lto):
07 Jan 49/85 (82.3) Hcap 12f AW Wolv 11/8F 9-0 (83) 1/7 6l Heathyards Pride (+1) – [172.8]
led 3f, chased leader, led 3f out, ridden and edged left 2f out, edged left just inside final furlong, driven clear
Obvious improver, winning 2 of 3 starts to date and from stable of last year’s winner.
Plenty of others with claims such as Stand Guard, Swiss Prince, Whitcombe Minster, Opera Prince and possibly Brouhaha. However, these are the two that interest me most and at the price I prefer King Olav to perhaps make the frame.
Kempton 5.20 Cl2 Hcap 112/103 (91.4) 16f AW – 14 Run (12 at best)
4yo = 5lb wfa allowance
Last year – 100/94 (84.7) 7 Ran
Calculating 100/30 4-8-9 (83) Dr 7 by 0.75l from Buster Hyvonen 5/2 6-8-12 (81) Dr 3
Not much time to look at this, but I would expect this to go to one of the younger horses. Meshtri and Downhiller would seem to have the best claims providing they are fit for their season openers with Meshtri getting the nod.
Well I guess that will do for the opening day of the Flat Season, and fingers crossed that one of them might run into the frame
Oldtimer