Post by Old Timer on Mar 26, 2009 11:14:33 GMT
Towcester 3.55 Cl3 Hcap Hurdle 63/116 (106.8) 24f gd – 18 Run
Theatrical Moment 6-11-10 OR 114 (108.1) (4.1)
Win % 36% gd 0/2/5 24f 0/0/1 Towc 0/0/1 RH 1/2/4 Stiff 0/1/1
Tr 14d 3/33 Tr C 3/8 J 14d 6/24 J/C 15% J/Tr 19% J/H 0/0/2
Last HH win:
None as yet
Lto:
20 Dec 66/120 (112.2) NHH 24f gd/sf Asc 14/1 11-2 (110) 2/16 0.1l Barnhill Brownie (+10) – [222.1]
in touch, mistake 10th, headway 3 out, every chance under pressure between last 2, kept on well flat, just held
Barnhill Brownie had previously finished 1.5l 2/7 in a 66 NH (CB) – not run since
Won 3 consecutive bumpers in spring ’07 and showed promise in 3 NH later that year. Given a break until contesting the AON Hurdle at Punchestown in April ’08 where he finished down the field. Showed little in two starts in novice class in October last year, but appreciated the step up to 24f when making his hcap debut at Ascot in December. Not seen since. It’s noted though that McCoy has chosen to partner Hello Moscow for Best rather than ride TM for Jonjo, which suggests that the race may be needed, especially as he carries 8lbs more today.
Caipiroska 10-11-6 OR 110
Win % 19% gd 2/2/5 24f 0/0/1 Towc 0/0 RH 2/2/6 Stiff 0/1/2
Tr 14d 3/28 Tr C 0/5 J 14d 4/38 J/C 3/29 J/Tr 14% J/H 3/5/11
Last HH win:
08 Dec ’07 27/105 (94.0) NHH 19.5f sf Weth 11/10F 10-8 (87) 1/11 11l Pagan Rules (-7) – [189.5]
held up, smooth headway approaching 4 out, led on bit just before 2 out, cantering in command when hit last, very easily
Lto:
25 Feb 73/130 (113.5) HH 24f gd/sf Bang 9/2 10-6 (110) P/9 I’m The Decider (+3)
in rear, niggled along approaching 4 out, tailed off when pulled up before 2 out
I’m The Decider had previously finished 2l 1/16 in a 44 AmHH (CB)
Just the one success over the smaller obstacles and has only run 4 times since, twice over fences. Runs off a 23lb higher mark today though and had had just the 2 runs this season, both since the turn of the year, finishing a well-beaten 2nd at Warwick and then PU at Haydock. Hardly one to get excited about.
Hello Moscow 7-11-10 OR 114 (100.0) (3.8)
Win % 20% gd 0/1/1 24f 0/0/1 Towc 0/0 RH 0/2/2 Stiff 0/0
Tr 14d 3/6 Tr C 0/3 J 14d 11/47 J/C 33% J/Tr 11/22 J/H 1/1/2
Last HH win:
09 Feb 52/119 (103.8) NHH 21f hv Plump 4/1 11-3 (110) 1/12 0.25l Spider Boy (-24) – [214.0]
with leaders, driven ahead after 8th, hard pressed after by eventual 3rd, maintained narrow advantage after mistake 2 out, lifted home flat
Lto:
07 Mar 33/115 (107.5) HH 24f gd/sf Chep 8/1 11-7 (115) P/16 Cashel Blue (-2)
prominent until weakened quickly and pulled up before 4 out
Cashel Blue had previously finished 0.75l 2/15 in a 52 HH (CB)
Successful pointer in Ireland over 24f on gd and fast ground and has showed promise in 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles this term, the exception being at Chepstow lto where he was working first-time blinkers. However, the way he weakened so abruptly suggests that all was not well. The blinkers have given way to a first-time visor today, plus McCoy is back in the saddle and he’s an even money shot when riding for Best. Only question would be about the weight, though of course he has physically carried more in point-to-points.
Coda Agency 6-11-12 OR 116 (101.7) (1.4)
Win % 23% gd 1/0/2 24f 1/0/1 Towc 2/0/3 RH 2/1/8 Stiff 2/0/4
Tr 14d 3/6 Tr C 2/7 J 14d 1/24 J/C 13% J/Tr 5/46 J/H 0/1/3
Last HH win (3rd last):
29 Nov 39/115 (104.1) HH 24f sf Towc 9/2 11-5 (108) 1/11 9l House Of Bourbon (+4) – [217.7]
always prominent, led 9th, clear 2 out, eased flat
Lto:
28 Feb 94/123 (117.1) HH 24.5f gd Kemp 13/2 11-6 (120) 4/8 51l Captain Americo (+6) – [205.9]
made most to 3 out, weakened rapidly before next
Captain Americo had previously finished 0.25l 1/8 in a 125 HH (CB)
Set career best figures when winning over C&D here in November, after which he had a couple of runs on the AW to keep him fit. Unable to handle the step up in class when PU in a Gr3HH at Sandown in January, but should have perhaps finished closer at Kempton lto behind an in-form Captain Americo. Nevertheless, C&D certainly suit and is dropping in class, though is unproven with the weight.
Painter Man 7-11-9 OR 113 (98.2) (5.8)
Win % 33% gd 0/1/1 24f 0/1/1 Towc 0/0 RH 2/1/3 Stiff 0/0
Tr 14d 4/46 Tr C 1/19 J 14d 4/34 J/C 13% J/Tr 14% J/H 0/0
Last HH win (2nd last):
14 Feb 46/104 (98.0) HH 22f sf Winc 4/1 11-5 (102) 1/9 1.75 Sashenka (-4) – [201.2]
held up, progress to track leaders 3 out, led 2 out and nodded, driven out run-in
Lto:
26 Feb 42/110 (104.0) HH 24f gd Lud 9/4F 11-12 (110) 2/9 4.5l Sashenka (-16) – [211.2]
raced keenly, always prominent, went 2nd 7th, led approaching 3 out, ridden approaching 2 out, headed and hit last, no extra
Lightly-raced novice who has returned to racing this season after a year off, scoring at Wincanton on second outing of the year. Unable to confirm running with Sashenka on 12lbs worse terms when upped to this distance lto at Ludlow. Based on his latest running there is just a doubt whether he’ll stay the distance over the very stiff finish here.
Dance Island 6-11-4 OR 108 (96.3) (8.1)
Win % 0/1/5 gd 0/0 24f 0/0 Towc 0/0 RH 0/0 Stiff 0/0
Tr 14d 0/4 Tr C 0/3 J 14d 3/31 J/C 10.50 J/Tr 0/7 J/H 0/0/1
Last HH win:
Mdn to date
Lto:
08 Mar 33/109 (104.4) HH 21f gd/sf Warw 20/1 11-5 (102) 2/18 3l Pure Genius (-5) – [204.3]
held up, steady headway 5th, not clear run briefly on inside bend approaching 2 out, soon ridden, went 2nd last, one pace
Pure Genius had previously finished 34l 9/16 in a 44 AmHH
First-year novice that has shown improvement over his four starts and by no means disgraced on his hcap debut at Warwick lto despite being unfancied. However, would have to find further improvement on that and is going up in class again today.
Others:
Evelith Forrest – very much interrupted career and effort at Chepstow in February was his first start in nearly two years. Did win a 33 NH in December ’06, but it would be a great training feat for him to win today despite King’s record with hurdlers here.
In all honesty I can’t see any of the others being likely contenders, although of course something is likely to come out of the woodwork. From the sextet I’ve looked at, I feel that Hello Moscow look the most likely and would take him to see off the likes of Coda Agency and Painter Man.
Seeing as how today has been a holiday I’ve been poking around at one or two other little things. Just out of interest, I’d suggest the following:
Southwell 4.40 – reverse forecast Three Boars/Rough Sketch
Wolverhampton 7.50 – Almaty Express
Oldtimer
Theatrical Moment 6-11-10 OR 114 (108.1) (4.1)
Win % 36% gd 0/2/5 24f 0/0/1 Towc 0/0/1 RH 1/2/4 Stiff 0/1/1
Tr 14d 3/33 Tr C 3/8 J 14d 6/24 J/C 15% J/Tr 19% J/H 0/0/2
Last HH win:
None as yet
Lto:
20 Dec 66/120 (112.2) NHH 24f gd/sf Asc 14/1 11-2 (110) 2/16 0.1l Barnhill Brownie (+10) – [222.1]
in touch, mistake 10th, headway 3 out, every chance under pressure between last 2, kept on well flat, just held
Barnhill Brownie had previously finished 1.5l 2/7 in a 66 NH (CB) – not run since
Won 3 consecutive bumpers in spring ’07 and showed promise in 3 NH later that year. Given a break until contesting the AON Hurdle at Punchestown in April ’08 where he finished down the field. Showed little in two starts in novice class in October last year, but appreciated the step up to 24f when making his hcap debut at Ascot in December. Not seen since. It’s noted though that McCoy has chosen to partner Hello Moscow for Best rather than ride TM for Jonjo, which suggests that the race may be needed, especially as he carries 8lbs more today.
Caipiroska 10-11-6 OR 110
Win % 19% gd 2/2/5 24f 0/0/1 Towc 0/0 RH 2/2/6 Stiff 0/1/2
Tr 14d 3/28 Tr C 0/5 J 14d 4/38 J/C 3/29 J/Tr 14% J/H 3/5/11
Last HH win:
08 Dec ’07 27/105 (94.0) NHH 19.5f sf Weth 11/10F 10-8 (87) 1/11 11l Pagan Rules (-7) – [189.5]
held up, smooth headway approaching 4 out, led on bit just before 2 out, cantering in command when hit last, very easily
Lto:
25 Feb 73/130 (113.5) HH 24f gd/sf Bang 9/2 10-6 (110) P/9 I’m The Decider (+3)
in rear, niggled along approaching 4 out, tailed off when pulled up before 2 out
I’m The Decider had previously finished 2l 1/16 in a 44 AmHH (CB)
Just the one success over the smaller obstacles and has only run 4 times since, twice over fences. Runs off a 23lb higher mark today though and had had just the 2 runs this season, both since the turn of the year, finishing a well-beaten 2nd at Warwick and then PU at Haydock. Hardly one to get excited about.
Hello Moscow 7-11-10 OR 114 (100.0) (3.8)
Win % 20% gd 0/1/1 24f 0/0/1 Towc 0/0 RH 0/2/2 Stiff 0/0
Tr 14d 3/6 Tr C 0/3 J 14d 11/47 J/C 33% J/Tr 11/22 J/H 1/1/2
Last HH win:
09 Feb 52/119 (103.8) NHH 21f hv Plump 4/1 11-3 (110) 1/12 0.25l Spider Boy (-24) – [214.0]
with leaders, driven ahead after 8th, hard pressed after by eventual 3rd, maintained narrow advantage after mistake 2 out, lifted home flat
Lto:
07 Mar 33/115 (107.5) HH 24f gd/sf Chep 8/1 11-7 (115) P/16 Cashel Blue (-2)
prominent until weakened quickly and pulled up before 4 out
Cashel Blue had previously finished 0.75l 2/15 in a 52 HH (CB)
Successful pointer in Ireland over 24f on gd and fast ground and has showed promise in 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles this term, the exception being at Chepstow lto where he was working first-time blinkers. However, the way he weakened so abruptly suggests that all was not well. The blinkers have given way to a first-time visor today, plus McCoy is back in the saddle and he’s an even money shot when riding for Best. Only question would be about the weight, though of course he has physically carried more in point-to-points.
Coda Agency 6-11-12 OR 116 (101.7) (1.4)
Win % 23% gd 1/0/2 24f 1/0/1 Towc 2/0/3 RH 2/1/8 Stiff 2/0/4
Tr 14d 3/6 Tr C 2/7 J 14d 1/24 J/C 13% J/Tr 5/46 J/H 0/1/3
Last HH win (3rd last):
29 Nov 39/115 (104.1) HH 24f sf Towc 9/2 11-5 (108) 1/11 9l House Of Bourbon (+4) – [217.7]
always prominent, led 9th, clear 2 out, eased flat
Lto:
28 Feb 94/123 (117.1) HH 24.5f gd Kemp 13/2 11-6 (120) 4/8 51l Captain Americo (+6) – [205.9]
made most to 3 out, weakened rapidly before next
Captain Americo had previously finished 0.25l 1/8 in a 125 HH (CB)
Set career best figures when winning over C&D here in November, after which he had a couple of runs on the AW to keep him fit. Unable to handle the step up in class when PU in a Gr3HH at Sandown in January, but should have perhaps finished closer at Kempton lto behind an in-form Captain Americo. Nevertheless, C&D certainly suit and is dropping in class, though is unproven with the weight.
Painter Man 7-11-9 OR 113 (98.2) (5.8)
Win % 33% gd 0/1/1 24f 0/1/1 Towc 0/0 RH 2/1/3 Stiff 0/0
Tr 14d 4/46 Tr C 1/19 J 14d 4/34 J/C 13% J/Tr 14% J/H 0/0
Last HH win (2nd last):
14 Feb 46/104 (98.0) HH 22f sf Winc 4/1 11-5 (102) 1/9 1.75 Sashenka (-4) – [201.2]
held up, progress to track leaders 3 out, led 2 out and nodded, driven out run-in
Lto:
26 Feb 42/110 (104.0) HH 24f gd Lud 9/4F 11-12 (110) 2/9 4.5l Sashenka (-16) – [211.2]
raced keenly, always prominent, went 2nd 7th, led approaching 3 out, ridden approaching 2 out, headed and hit last, no extra
Lightly-raced novice who has returned to racing this season after a year off, scoring at Wincanton on second outing of the year. Unable to confirm running with Sashenka on 12lbs worse terms when upped to this distance lto at Ludlow. Based on his latest running there is just a doubt whether he’ll stay the distance over the very stiff finish here.
Dance Island 6-11-4 OR 108 (96.3) (8.1)
Win % 0/1/5 gd 0/0 24f 0/0 Towc 0/0 RH 0/0 Stiff 0/0
Tr 14d 0/4 Tr C 0/3 J 14d 3/31 J/C 10.50 J/Tr 0/7 J/H 0/0/1
Last HH win:
Mdn to date
Lto:
08 Mar 33/109 (104.4) HH 21f gd/sf Warw 20/1 11-5 (102) 2/18 3l Pure Genius (-5) – [204.3]
held up, steady headway 5th, not clear run briefly on inside bend approaching 2 out, soon ridden, went 2nd last, one pace
Pure Genius had previously finished 34l 9/16 in a 44 AmHH
First-year novice that has shown improvement over his four starts and by no means disgraced on his hcap debut at Warwick lto despite being unfancied. However, would have to find further improvement on that and is going up in class again today.
Others:
Evelith Forrest – very much interrupted career and effort at Chepstow in February was his first start in nearly two years. Did win a 33 NH in December ’06, but it would be a great training feat for him to win today despite King’s record with hurdlers here.
In all honesty I can’t see any of the others being likely contenders, although of course something is likely to come out of the woodwork. From the sextet I’ve looked at, I feel that Hello Moscow look the most likely and would take him to see off the likes of Coda Agency and Painter Man.
Seeing as how today has been a holiday I’ve been poking around at one or two other little things. Just out of interest, I’d suggest the following:
Southwell 4.40 – reverse forecast Three Boars/Rough Sketch
Wolverhampton 7.50 – Almaty Express
Oldtimer
