Post by Old Timer on Mar 21, 2009 13:18:22 GMT
Lingfield 4.50 Cl2 Hcap 130/107 (96.7) 7f AW – 14 Run (13 at most)
Last year – 125/103 (94.0) 8 Ran
Atlantic Story 7/2 6-9-2 (98) Dr 5 by 1.25l from Gallantry 13/2 6-8-5 (90) Dr 3
Aeroplane 6-9-7 OR 103 Dr 2 (91.7) (2.3)
Win % 19% AW 2/2/8 7f 4/2/14 Ling 1/0/2
Tr 14d 1/7 Tr C 5/8 J 14d 7/34 J/C 19% J/Tr 10/38 J/H 0/1/6
Last hcap win:
07 Jan 112/107 (94.0) Hcap 7f AW Kemp 2/1F 9-2 (98) 1/6 1.25l Bonus (+9) – [194.7]
held up in rear, steady headway from 2f out, quickened to lead and edged left final 100yds, readily
Abbondanza (-5) was 3.75l 4th
Lto:
07 Mar 227/108 List 7f AW Wolv 4/1CoF 9-3 (103) 3/7 1.7l Ceremonial Jade (0)
slowly into stride, held up, headway over 1f out, shaken up inside final furlong, eased when held near finish
Ceremonial Jade had previously finished 3.25l 5/7 in a 227 List over 6f
Has been in good form this winter and only off a 5lb higher mark than when winning at Kempton in January. However, there is a question about the physical weight, as today’s impost may be a couple of lbs too much. Not enamoured with the low draw either, as those coming from the three lowest stalls win less often than they should.
Thebes 4-8-9 OR 91 Dr 12 (94.5) (-2.6)
Win % 33% AW 4/1/6 7f 1/1/4 Ling 0/0
Tr 14d 9/23 Tr C 10/108 J 14d 3/13 J/C 12% J/Tr 19% J/H 5/1/8
Last hcap win (lto):
07 Mar 112/112 (96.9) Hcap 6f AW Wolv 7/2JF 8-6 (88) 1/8 0.25l Orpsie Boy (+10) – [185.5]
soon led, ridden and hung left inside final furlong, just held on
Orpsie Boy had previously finished 2.6l 3/7 in a 227 List
Back to form returning from a 4-month break at Wolverhampton last month. That was over 6f however, and I’m not sure that 7f is ideal at this level of opposition.
Abbondanza 6-9-3 OR 99 Dr 9 (85.6) (11.6)
Win % 30% AW 5/4/14 7f 0/1/3 Ling 1/1/2
Tr 14d 1/3 Tr C 3/7 J 14d 0/12 J/C 9/55 J/Tr 12% J/H 5/2/10
Last hcap win (lto):
01 Mar 117/95 (90.2) Hcap 8f AW Ling 14/1 9-2 (93) 1/11 0.75l Flipando (0) – [184.6]
made all, set good pace, soon 6 lengths clear, flagging badly final furlong, just lasted
Flipando had previously finished 0.25l 1/10 in a 125 Hcap (CB)
Recorded a career best here lto when just holding off Flipando and the form was franked when the latter went on to take the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton. Has been raised 6lbs for that however, although has no problem with the physical weight. Just a question about the drop back in trip, although only just lasted out 8f here lto.
Plenty with chances, but for once I’ll forsake old favourite (and last year’s winner) Atlantic Story who runs off a 9lb higher mark this year and with Chris Catlin taking over from Jamie Spencer. Spencer is on Aeroplane and he has to be given a chance, but from a better draw I just prefer the chances of Abbondanza. One that I certainly don’t fancy is Giganticus, making his AW debut and unlikely to be suited by the course – prefers straight galloping courses. So it’s Abbondanza for me with a saver on Aeroplane.
Having been without any internet connection for some 8 hours today I’ve not had time to look at anything else much. Sp the following are just blind guesses taken from the data without further analysis.
Newb 2.20 Strawberry/ Theatre Dance
Newb 2.50 Jaunty Flight/Katess
So less losers than normal to look at!
Oldtimer
Last year – 125/103 (94.0) 8 Ran
Atlantic Story 7/2 6-9-2 (98) Dr 5 by 1.25l from Gallantry 13/2 6-8-5 (90) Dr 3
Aeroplane 6-9-7 OR 103 Dr 2 (91.7) (2.3)
Win % 19% AW 2/2/8 7f 4/2/14 Ling 1/0/2
Tr 14d 1/7 Tr C 5/8 J 14d 7/34 J/C 19% J/Tr 10/38 J/H 0/1/6
Last hcap win:
07 Jan 112/107 (94.0) Hcap 7f AW Kemp 2/1F 9-2 (98) 1/6 1.25l Bonus (+9) – [194.7]
held up in rear, steady headway from 2f out, quickened to lead and edged left final 100yds, readily
Abbondanza (-5) was 3.75l 4th
Lto:
07 Mar 227/108 List 7f AW Wolv 4/1CoF 9-3 (103) 3/7 1.7l Ceremonial Jade (0)
slowly into stride, held up, headway over 1f out, shaken up inside final furlong, eased when held near finish
Ceremonial Jade had previously finished 3.25l 5/7 in a 227 List over 6f
Has been in good form this winter and only off a 5lb higher mark than when winning at Kempton in January. However, there is a question about the physical weight, as today’s impost may be a couple of lbs too much. Not enamoured with the low draw either, as those coming from the three lowest stalls win less often than they should.
Thebes 4-8-9 OR 91 Dr 12 (94.5) (-2.6)
Win % 33% AW 4/1/6 7f 1/1/4 Ling 0/0
Tr 14d 9/23 Tr C 10/108 J 14d 3/13 J/C 12% J/Tr 19% J/H 5/1/8
Last hcap win (lto):
07 Mar 112/112 (96.9) Hcap 6f AW Wolv 7/2JF 8-6 (88) 1/8 0.25l Orpsie Boy (+10) – [185.5]
soon led, ridden and hung left inside final furlong, just held on
Orpsie Boy had previously finished 2.6l 3/7 in a 227 List
Back to form returning from a 4-month break at Wolverhampton last month. That was over 6f however, and I’m not sure that 7f is ideal at this level of opposition.
Abbondanza 6-9-3 OR 99 Dr 9 (85.6) (11.6)
Win % 30% AW 5/4/14 7f 0/1/3 Ling 1/1/2
Tr 14d 1/3 Tr C 3/7 J 14d 0/12 J/C 9/55 J/Tr 12% J/H 5/2/10
Last hcap win (lto):
01 Mar 117/95 (90.2) Hcap 8f AW Ling 14/1 9-2 (93) 1/11 0.75l Flipando (0) – [184.6]
made all, set good pace, soon 6 lengths clear, flagging badly final furlong, just lasted
Flipando had previously finished 0.25l 1/10 in a 125 Hcap (CB)
Recorded a career best here lto when just holding off Flipando and the form was franked when the latter went on to take the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton. Has been raised 6lbs for that however, although has no problem with the physical weight. Just a question about the drop back in trip, although only just lasted out 8f here lto.
Plenty with chances, but for once I’ll forsake old favourite (and last year’s winner) Atlantic Story who runs off a 9lb higher mark this year and with Chris Catlin taking over from Jamie Spencer. Spencer is on Aeroplane and he has to be given a chance, but from a better draw I just prefer the chances of Abbondanza. One that I certainly don’t fancy is Giganticus, making his AW debut and unlikely to be suited by the course – prefers straight galloping courses. So it’s Abbondanza for me with a saver on Aeroplane.
Having been without any internet connection for some 8 hours today I’ve not had time to look at anything else much. Sp the following are just blind guesses taken from the data without further analysis.
Newb 2.20 Strawberry/ Theatre Dance
Newb 2.50 Jaunty Flight/Katess
So less losers than normal to look at!
Oldtimer
