Post by Old Timer on Mar 20, 2009 13:15:31 GMT
Kelso 4.00 Cl3 Hcap Chase 91/135 (125.0) 17f gd – 11 Run (10 at most)
Daldini 7-11-4 OR 127 (118.1) (6.3) NR
Win% 17% gd 2/1/9 17f 0/2/2 Kel 0/0 LH 4/6/29 Sharp 1/3/9
Tr 14d 5/29 Tr C 4/32 J 14d 2/16 J/C 0/4 J/Tr 10% J/H 4/5/18
Last HC win (lto):
21 Feb 63/130 (121.4) HC 20f hv Nwcs 13/2 11-1 (122) 1/9 2.25l Jack The Blaster (+5) – [245.1]
made all, driven 3 out, held on well
Returned to form at the end of January, winning HC at Wetherby and then at Newcastle. However, was raised in trip and can’t see that the drop back to 17f plays to his strengths. Plus would probably prefer some give underfoot, and possibly a more galloping course, even though he has won on gd and on a sharp course.
Nikola 8-11-2 OR 125 (122.2) (8.6)
Win% 13% gd 0/3/5 17f 0/0 Kel 0/0 LH 2/4/16 Sharp 0/2/6
Tr 14d 2/29 Tr C 4/7 J 14d 1/33 J/C 8/33 J/Tr 17% J/H 1/6/12
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
31 Jan 125/138 (130.8) HC 16f gd/sf Sand 20/1 10-11 (123) 2/8 7l Lorient Express (-1) – [247.2]
chased leaders, disputed 2nd from 6th, chased winner and ridden 4 out, no chance after 3 out but kept on well for clear 2nd
Showed some promise as a novice, winning at Leicester last March and Uttoxeter in May. Not as successful since his return in September however, and was given a break after finishing down the field at Newbury in November. Dropped back to 16f for his return at Sandown at the end of January and put in a better effort, though never going to trouble the winner. Not convinced that he (or the stable) is back to his best however, plus has shown best form on galloping rather than sharp courses.
Le Roi Rouge 7-10-11 OR 120 (98.2) (5.5)
Win% 18% gd 1/0/4 17f 1/1/3 Kel 0/0 LH 1/1/9 Sharp 1/1/3
Tr 14d 1/29 Tr C 8/65 J 14d 5/41 J/C 13% J/Tr 14% J/H 2/0/6
Last HC win (lto):
16 Feb 39/115 (103.7) HC 16f hv Carl 2/1F 11-11 (114) 1/11 0.5l Hollows Mill (-25) – [218.2]
midfield, outpaced and dropped last 6th, rallied before 3 out, stayed on well from last to lead near finish
Returned to winning form when dropped in trip and class at Carlisle lto, but is very much back up in class today. Not at all sure that the going will suit either, as he seems to reserve his best for soft or heavy going.
Cast Iron Casey 7-11-2 OR 125
Win% 27% gd 1/1/3 17f 0/1/1 Kel 0/1/1 LH 3/1/8 Sharp 2/2/6
Tr 14d 0/6 Tr C 10/69 J 14d 1/19 J/C 10% J/Tr 12% J/H 2/1/5
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
25 Nov 51 NC 20f sf Sedge 6/1 11-1 (118) 1/11 4.5l Torkinking (-3)
held up towards rear, headway 10th, soon chasing leaders, led 2 out, stayed on well approaching last
Very much the novice with just 2 starts over fences, winning the second at Sedgefield in November. The fact he hasn’t been seen since could well be due to no wish to expose a promising young horse to demanding ground conditions. Well thought of by his trainer and looks the pick of his pair today, though I’m not sure on the drop back in trip.
The others:
Marcel – won over C&D here last March before going on to beat Andreas at Ayr on his final outing of the season. Has had 4 outings over hurdles this time round, all since the start of the year and lto effort over 17f here showed he might be getting back in shape. Course, distance and going should all suit, but I’d like to have seen a chase outing before giving him support off top weight. Perhaps just there to compress the weights for Cast Iron Casey.
Bill’s Echo – won back-to-back HC at Bangor and Stratford in October, but out of his depth when raised in class at Haydock in November, plus the ground was probably softer than he likes. Not seen since, but does have form coming back from a break. Ground and distance should suit, as should course despite him not having run here before. The 4-month break has me a little wary though.
Sharp Reply – showed promise as a novice last term, winning 2 of his 4 starts over fences. Has been off since last April though and may well need the race on his hcap debut.
Tom’s Toybox – was in good form during the summer, winning HC at Aintree and Perth under today’s claimer. Form on return in the autumn best forgotten, as the ground was against him. However, not much of a showing at Doncaster last month on better ground, although was coming back from a break. Not enough pluses to persuade me today however.
Manhattan Boy – beat Seeyaaj (-2) by 2l at Perth in June, but has shown nothing in two starts over hurdles since his return. May show more returned to fences and with a professional jockey, but is off a 10lb higher mark than last June.
Natiain – enjoyed some success in hunter-chasers last spring, but has shown nothing since his return and even his 2nd lto was 26l adrift of the winner. Fail to see how the drop back in trip will suit either.
Seeyaaj – not seen since being PU over C&D here last October and hard to make a case for him today.
The latest attempt at ratings gives the following:
Nikola
Bill’s Echo
Marcel
Cast Iron Casey
Only ‘sore thumbs’ to be found here are mine from twiddling them while I try and make some sense of it! The proverbial ‘fly in the ointment’ could well be Cast Iron Casey, but it looks no cast iron certainty to me, especially at the likely price. Daldini looks a little short too with questions about distance, course and going; now a NR! I would be sweeter on Nikola were the stable in better form, but it certainly warrants consideration. Similar comments could be made about Le Roi Rouge. Of the others, cases could be made for Bill’s Echo, Tom’s Toybox and Manhattan Boy.
So trying to make the best of things, my suggestion would be Nikola to at least make the frame, though with dangers abounding from the likes of Daldini, Cast Iron Casey, Bill’s Echo and Tom’s Toybox.
Kelso 4.35 Cl3 Hcap Chase 127/135 (118.4) 28f gd – 9 Run (8 at most)
King Barry 10-11-8 OR 130 (122.0) (5.4)
Win % 32% gd 1/1/7 26/30f 0/0 Kel 1/0/1 LH 5/4/12 Sharp 4/1/11
Tr 14d 0/3 Tr C 2/7 J 14d 3/27 J/C 8% J/Tr 14/58 J/H 5/3/14
Last HC win (2nd last):
15 Dec 65/114 (106.9) HC 25f hv Ayr 5/1 11-12 (120) 1/9 1l Jass (-11) – [227.5]
tracked leaders, close up halfway, led 4 out, ridden approaching last, driven and stayed on well flat
Lto:
18 Feb 163/141 (126.4) HC 24f gd/sf Donc 3/1F 11-1 (130) 2/12 7l Church Island (-2) – [252.0]
in rear, headway to chase leaders 13th, went 2nd last, no impression
Was in good form towards the end of the year and not disgraced when returning from a break in finishing 2nd to Church Island at Doncaster. Going and course will suit, although has yet to try this far.
Rimsky 8-11-0 OR 122 (103.6) (17.3)
Win % 15% gd 0/1/5 26/30f 0/0/1 Kel 0/0 LH 3/6/19 Sharp 1/0/3
Tr 14d 2/29 Tr C 4/7 J 14d 1/33 J/C 8/33 J/Tr 17% J/H 0/1/7
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
21 Feb 312/136 (117.9) HC 33f hv Nwcs 12/1 11-1 (125) 3/13 38l Merigo (0) – [225.6]
held up, headway and prominent halfway, badly outpaced before 4 out, plugged on, left a modest 3rd last
Only modest success over fences to date and better suited by soft or heavy conditions.
According To John 9-11-12 OR 134 (134.9) (5.4) NR
Win % 55% gd 0/0 26/30f 0/0 Kel 1/0/1 LH 4/1/5 Sharp 1/0/2
Tr 14d 4/15 Tr C 7/27 J 14d 5/20 J/C 6/14 J/Tr 17% J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
31 Jan 313/156 (139.3) HC 25f gd/sf Sand 12/1 10-5 (135) 4/9 9l Can’t Buy Time (-12) – [268.9]
held up in rear but in touch, hit 8th, headway 17th, ridden and outpaced 3 out, stayed on again run-in
Looked a promising novice on ‘06/’07, but career has been curtailed by injury. Fair effort at Sandown in January when returning from a 14-month break. Likely to have come on from that, though how much is left is another question.
Wild Cane Ridge 10-11-9 OR 131 (129.5) (3.2)
Win % 35% gd 0/0/1 26/30f 0/0/1 Kel 0/0 LH 7/4/23 Sharp 1/0/2
Tr 14d 1/8 Tr C 5/30 J 14d 1/19 J/C 10% J/Tr 11% J/H 1/1/8
Last HC win:
29 Nov ’06 190/154 (139.0) HC 20f sf Ayr 4/5F 10-4 (134) 1/4 10l Mister McGoldrick (+20) – [280.5]
led to 2nd, not fluent, chased leaders, outpaced 11th, rallied before 3 out, led after next, clear when mistake last, stayed on well
Lto:
07 Feb 123/142 (131.7) HC 25f sf Ayr 5/2 11-2 (132) 3/5 5.25l Silver Sedge (-11) – [260.5]
led to 3 out, soon driven along, rallied and chance when blundered last, not recover
Not the force he once was, but mark has still only dropped 3lbs since his last HC win back in ’06, just 12 races ago. Definitely needs softer ground and yet to prove he stays this far.
Panama At Once 9-10-0 OR 108 (2lbs ooh) (104.1) (10.6)
Win % 17% gd 0/0/2 26/30f 0/1/2 Kel 0/0 LH 3/2/17 Sharp 0/1/6
Tr 14d 1/4 Tr C 0/0 J 14d 1/14 J/C 1/6 J/Tr 0/1 J/H 0/0
Last HC win (lto):
06 Mar 72/123 (103.5) HC 25f sf Ayr 7/4 10-5 (105) 1/4 6l Sammy Spiderman (0) – [212.1]
close up, left in lead and hampered 5th, soon headed, hampered and left in lead bend after 9th, made rest, 3 lengths clear when mistake last, kept on well
Seems to go best in demanding conditions and looks to be a little outclassed here.
Stagecoach Diamond – will have no problem with the distance, but was behind Rimsky in the Eider lto.
Hidden Bounty – getting no younger, but is 14lb better in with King Barry than on their running here in November.
Mister Apple’s – runs here from 1lb out of the handicap and is off a 7lb higher mark than when winning at Cheltenham in October. Has struggled over extended distance the last twice and may appreciate the drop back in trip.
Has Scored – has too, twice from 23 starts, the latest being in March last year off a 30lbs lower mark!
The latest attempt at ratings gives the following:
Rimsky
Stagecoach Diamond
King Barry
Hidden Bounty
According to the forecast, According To John is the one to be on, but not according to me. He may well win, but his price looks way to short for a horse that’s managed but 2 races in 2 years; now a NR! Nor am I wild about the hopes of the veteran Wild Cane Ridge who has hit a bit of a block when it comes to winning, though he did manage to achieve this over hurdles in heavy ground at Ayr in January ’08. I’m much more taken with the chances of King Barry and perhaps Rimsky, although it’s hard to catch the latter ‘right’. A case could also be made for the old-stager Hidden Bounty. However, the pair for me are King Barry from Rimsky.
Oldtimer
Daldini 7-11-4 OR 127 (118.1) (6.3) NR
Win% 17% gd 2/1/9 17f 0/2/2 Kel 0/0 LH 4/6/29 Sharp 1/3/9
Tr 14d 5/29 Tr C 4/32 J 14d 2/16 J/C 0/4 J/Tr 10% J/H 4/5/18
Last HC win (lto):
21 Feb 63/130 (121.4) HC 20f hv Nwcs 13/2 11-1 (122) 1/9 2.25l Jack The Blaster (+5) – [245.1]
made all, driven 3 out, held on well
Returned to form at the end of January, winning HC at Wetherby and then at Newcastle. However, was raised in trip and can’t see that the drop back to 17f plays to his strengths. Plus would probably prefer some give underfoot, and possibly a more galloping course, even though he has won on gd and on a sharp course.
Nikola 8-11-2 OR 125 (122.2) (8.6)
Win% 13% gd 0/3/5 17f 0/0 Kel 0/0 LH 2/4/16 Sharp 0/2/6
Tr 14d 2/29 Tr C 4/7 J 14d 1/33 J/C 8/33 J/Tr 17% J/H 1/6/12
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
31 Jan 125/138 (130.8) HC 16f gd/sf Sand 20/1 10-11 (123) 2/8 7l Lorient Express (-1) – [247.2]
chased leaders, disputed 2nd from 6th, chased winner and ridden 4 out, no chance after 3 out but kept on well for clear 2nd
Showed some promise as a novice, winning at Leicester last March and Uttoxeter in May. Not as successful since his return in September however, and was given a break after finishing down the field at Newbury in November. Dropped back to 16f for his return at Sandown at the end of January and put in a better effort, though never going to trouble the winner. Not convinced that he (or the stable) is back to his best however, plus has shown best form on galloping rather than sharp courses.
Le Roi Rouge 7-10-11 OR 120 (98.2) (5.5)
Win% 18% gd 1/0/4 17f 1/1/3 Kel 0/0 LH 1/1/9 Sharp 1/1/3
Tr 14d 1/29 Tr C 8/65 J 14d 5/41 J/C 13% J/Tr 14% J/H 2/0/6
Last HC win (lto):
16 Feb 39/115 (103.7) HC 16f hv Carl 2/1F 11-11 (114) 1/11 0.5l Hollows Mill (-25) – [218.2]
midfield, outpaced and dropped last 6th, rallied before 3 out, stayed on well from last to lead near finish
Returned to winning form when dropped in trip and class at Carlisle lto, but is very much back up in class today. Not at all sure that the going will suit either, as he seems to reserve his best for soft or heavy going.
Cast Iron Casey 7-11-2 OR 125
Win% 27% gd 1/1/3 17f 0/1/1 Kel 0/1/1 LH 3/1/8 Sharp 2/2/6
Tr 14d 0/6 Tr C 10/69 J 14d 1/19 J/C 10% J/Tr 12% J/H 2/1/5
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
25 Nov 51 NC 20f sf Sedge 6/1 11-1 (118) 1/11 4.5l Torkinking (-3)
held up towards rear, headway 10th, soon chasing leaders, led 2 out, stayed on well approaching last
Very much the novice with just 2 starts over fences, winning the second at Sedgefield in November. The fact he hasn’t been seen since could well be due to no wish to expose a promising young horse to demanding ground conditions. Well thought of by his trainer and looks the pick of his pair today, though I’m not sure on the drop back in trip.
The others:
Marcel – won over C&D here last March before going on to beat Andreas at Ayr on his final outing of the season. Has had 4 outings over hurdles this time round, all since the start of the year and lto effort over 17f here showed he might be getting back in shape. Course, distance and going should all suit, but I’d like to have seen a chase outing before giving him support off top weight. Perhaps just there to compress the weights for Cast Iron Casey.
Bill’s Echo – won back-to-back HC at Bangor and Stratford in October, but out of his depth when raised in class at Haydock in November, plus the ground was probably softer than he likes. Not seen since, but does have form coming back from a break. Ground and distance should suit, as should course despite him not having run here before. The 4-month break has me a little wary though.
Sharp Reply – showed promise as a novice last term, winning 2 of his 4 starts over fences. Has been off since last April though and may well need the race on his hcap debut.
Tom’s Toybox – was in good form during the summer, winning HC at Aintree and Perth under today’s claimer. Form on return in the autumn best forgotten, as the ground was against him. However, not much of a showing at Doncaster last month on better ground, although was coming back from a break. Not enough pluses to persuade me today however.
Manhattan Boy – beat Seeyaaj (-2) by 2l at Perth in June, but has shown nothing in two starts over hurdles since his return. May show more returned to fences and with a professional jockey, but is off a 10lb higher mark than last June.
Natiain – enjoyed some success in hunter-chasers last spring, but has shown nothing since his return and even his 2nd lto was 26l adrift of the winner. Fail to see how the drop back in trip will suit either.
Seeyaaj – not seen since being PU over C&D here last October and hard to make a case for him today.
The latest attempt at ratings gives the following:
Nikola
Bill’s Echo
Marcel
Cast Iron Casey
Only ‘sore thumbs’ to be found here are mine from twiddling them while I try and make some sense of it! The proverbial ‘fly in the ointment’ could well be Cast Iron Casey, but it looks no cast iron certainty to me, especially at the likely price. Daldini looks a little short too with questions about distance, course and going; now a NR! I would be sweeter on Nikola were the stable in better form, but it certainly warrants consideration. Similar comments could be made about Le Roi Rouge. Of the others, cases could be made for Bill’s Echo, Tom’s Toybox and Manhattan Boy.
So trying to make the best of things, my suggestion would be Nikola to at least make the frame, though with dangers abounding from the likes of Daldini, Cast Iron Casey, Bill’s Echo and Tom’s Toybox.
Kelso 4.35 Cl3 Hcap Chase 127/135 (118.4) 28f gd – 9 Run (8 at most)
King Barry 10-11-8 OR 130 (122.0) (5.4)
Win % 32% gd 1/1/7 26/30f 0/0 Kel 1/0/1 LH 5/4/12 Sharp 4/1/11
Tr 14d 0/3 Tr C 2/7 J 14d 3/27 J/C 8% J/Tr 14/58 J/H 5/3/14
Last HC win (2nd last):
15 Dec 65/114 (106.9) HC 25f hv Ayr 5/1 11-12 (120) 1/9 1l Jass (-11) – [227.5]
tracked leaders, close up halfway, led 4 out, ridden approaching last, driven and stayed on well flat
Lto:
18 Feb 163/141 (126.4) HC 24f gd/sf Donc 3/1F 11-1 (130) 2/12 7l Church Island (-2) – [252.0]
in rear, headway to chase leaders 13th, went 2nd last, no impression
Was in good form towards the end of the year and not disgraced when returning from a break in finishing 2nd to Church Island at Doncaster. Going and course will suit, although has yet to try this far.
Rimsky 8-11-0 OR 122 (103.6) (17.3)
Win % 15% gd 0/1/5 26/30f 0/0/1 Kel 0/0 LH 3/6/19 Sharp 1/0/3
Tr 14d 2/29 Tr C 4/7 J 14d 1/33 J/C 8/33 J/Tr 17% J/H 0/1/7
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
21 Feb 312/136 (117.9) HC 33f hv Nwcs 12/1 11-1 (125) 3/13 38l Merigo (0) – [225.6]
held up, headway and prominent halfway, badly outpaced before 4 out, plugged on, left a modest 3rd last
Only modest success over fences to date and better suited by soft or heavy conditions.
According To John 9-11-12 OR 134 (134.9) (5.4) NR
Win % 55% gd 0/0 26/30f 0/0 Kel 1/0/1 LH 4/1/5 Sharp 1/0/2
Tr 14d 4/15 Tr C 7/27 J 14d 5/20 J/C 6/14 J/Tr 17% J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
31 Jan 313/156 (139.3) HC 25f gd/sf Sand 12/1 10-5 (135) 4/9 9l Can’t Buy Time (-12) – [268.9]
held up in rear but in touch, hit 8th, headway 17th, ridden and outpaced 3 out, stayed on again run-in
Looked a promising novice on ‘06/’07, but career has been curtailed by injury. Fair effort at Sandown in January when returning from a 14-month break. Likely to have come on from that, though how much is left is another question.
Wild Cane Ridge 10-11-9 OR 131 (129.5) (3.2)
Win % 35% gd 0/0/1 26/30f 0/0/1 Kel 0/0 LH 7/4/23 Sharp 1/0/2
Tr 14d 1/8 Tr C 5/30 J 14d 1/19 J/C 10% J/Tr 11% J/H 1/1/8
Last HC win:
29 Nov ’06 190/154 (139.0) HC 20f sf Ayr 4/5F 10-4 (134) 1/4 10l Mister McGoldrick (+20) – [280.5]
led to 2nd, not fluent, chased leaders, outpaced 11th, rallied before 3 out, led after next, clear when mistake last, stayed on well
Lto:
07 Feb 123/142 (131.7) HC 25f sf Ayr 5/2 11-2 (132) 3/5 5.25l Silver Sedge (-11) – [260.5]
led to 3 out, soon driven along, rallied and chance when blundered last, not recover
Not the force he once was, but mark has still only dropped 3lbs since his last HC win back in ’06, just 12 races ago. Definitely needs softer ground and yet to prove he stays this far.
Panama At Once 9-10-0 OR 108 (2lbs ooh) (104.1) (10.6)
Win % 17% gd 0/0/2 26/30f 0/1/2 Kel 0/0 LH 3/2/17 Sharp 0/1/6
Tr 14d 1/4 Tr C 0/0 J 14d 1/14 J/C 1/6 J/Tr 0/1 J/H 0/0
Last HC win (lto):
06 Mar 72/123 (103.5) HC 25f sf Ayr 7/4 10-5 (105) 1/4 6l Sammy Spiderman (0) – [212.1]
close up, left in lead and hampered 5th, soon headed, hampered and left in lead bend after 9th, made rest, 3 lengths clear when mistake last, kept on well
Seems to go best in demanding conditions and looks to be a little outclassed here.
Stagecoach Diamond – will have no problem with the distance, but was behind Rimsky in the Eider lto.
Hidden Bounty – getting no younger, but is 14lb better in with King Barry than on their running here in November.
Mister Apple’s – runs here from 1lb out of the handicap and is off a 7lb higher mark than when winning at Cheltenham in October. Has struggled over extended distance the last twice and may appreciate the drop back in trip.
Has Scored – has too, twice from 23 starts, the latest being in March last year off a 30lbs lower mark!
The latest attempt at ratings gives the following:
Rimsky
Stagecoach Diamond
King Barry
Hidden Bounty
According to the forecast, According To John is the one to be on, but not according to me. He may well win, but his price looks way to short for a horse that’s managed but 2 races in 2 years; now a NR! Nor am I wild about the hopes of the veteran Wild Cane Ridge who has hit a bit of a block when it comes to winning, though he did manage to achieve this over hurdles in heavy ground at Ayr in January ’08. I’m much more taken with the chances of King Barry and perhaps Rimsky, although it’s hard to catch the latter ‘right’. A case could also be made for the old-stager Hidden Bounty. However, the pair for me are King Barry from Rimsky.
Oldtimer
