Post by Old Timer on Dec 19, 2020 11:44:02 GMT
The least said about last Saturday teh better!!
Haydock 14.40 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 250 (133.7) 26.5 hv – 10 Run
Last year – 313 (137.1) hv – 9 ran
Lord Du Mesnil 4/1 6-10-5 (127) by 13 l from Calipso Collonges 14/1 7-10-5 (127)
Hill Sixteen 7-11-0 (138) (22.5)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5 (with Sue Smith yard)
‘20/21 record: 2/0/2 Best: 248.8 off 126 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 HCh 19.5f hv Ffos Las)
27 Nov Cl 2 HHdl (125/131.0) 24f gd Newb 10-4 11/10 F 1/12 1 l off 123
prominent, pushed along before 3 out, ridden approaching 2 out, stayed on well to lead final 100yds
18 Nov Cl 3 Hch (70/122.8) 19.5f hv Ffos Las 11-8 2/1 F 1/8 46 l off 126
raced wide, prominent, led before 3 out, clear 2 out, comfortable
Plus: class (Wh); going (W); form run lto (22 days/ 29 days Ch);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 19lbs (Ch wt); up 15lb (Ch OR); up in distance (Ch);
Verdict: came over from Sue Smith yard with 1/1/5 record over fences; totally dominated on debut in Cl 3 chase and a week later stayed on well to win Ch 2 HHd over 24f; has been raised 15lbs but that may not slow him and is proven on the ground; noy yet won at 24f over fences, but indication are that he’ll get the trip alright.
Sojourn 7-11-11 (140) (18.9)
’19/20 record: 1/1/2 Best: 247.8 off 127 carrying 11-2 (Cl 3 NHCh 23.5f sf Chep)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/1 Best: 254.8 off 129 carrying 11-3 (Cl 3 HCh 26f hv Carl)
01/11/20 Cl 3 HCh (125/125.8) 26f hv Carl 11-3 11/4 Jt F 1/12 15 l off 129
prominent, close up 5th, almost upsides 11th, led narrowly 12th, clear when blundered 2 out, ran on well under pressure to clear away last, cosily
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (48 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 5lbs (wt); up 11 lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: only 7 starts in total and just 3 over fences, but he’s won 2 of those and finished runner-up in the other; proven at the distance on the going, he likely will take the weight and class rise in his stride; a favourite’s chance.
Highest Sun 6-11-5 (134) (9.5)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/7
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 258.2 off 136 carrying 11-7 (Cl 2 HCh 22.5f gd Newb)
28/11/20 Cl 2 Hcap (188/134.7) 22.5f gd Newb 11-7 15/2 4/16 12.5 l off 136
mid-division, headway chasing leaders 10th, pushed along before 4 out, went 2nd next until before 2 out, chased leaders, weakened
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 2lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course (?); up in distance;
Verdict: second season chaser who won on his only try at this distance in a Cl 3 Nov Hcap last December; however, has weakened when tried at shorter distances; nevertheless, chance on 4th lto at Newbury and is proven on hv ground.
Lord Napier 7-11-3 (132)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/2
‘20/21 record: 0/1/3 Best: 255.4 off 132 carrying 11-6 (Cl 3 NHCh 23.5 hv Chep)
05/12/70 Cl 3 NHCh (70/128.9) 23.5f hv Chep 11-6 7/1 2/7 5.5 l off 132
chased leader, mistake 4 out (usually 5 out), ridden along before 3 out (usually 4 out), stayed on nicely after 2 out (usually 3 out)
Plus: going (F); form run lto (14 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up in class, up in distance;
Verdict: just 3 chases but showed promise on last run at Chepstow a fortnight ago; however is stepping up in class from was he has experienced so far and at best a place chance at best.
Lot of young inexperienced chasers here and leading the field are Sojourn and Hill Sixteen and I think they will likely finish in that order with Highest Sun getting the better of Lord Napier for this place.
Ascot 15.00 Listed Handicap Chase 342 (144.9) 24 hv – 11 Run (10 at best)
Last year – 570 (148.3) 24f hv – 10 ran
Regal Encore 16/1 11-10-7 (142) by 0.75 l from Acting Lass 12/1 8-10-12 (147)
Master Malarkey 5/1 6-10-13 (148) always behind PU last
The Conditional 8-11-1 (146) (5.8)
Plus: class (W+); going (Wh); distance (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course; up 4lvs (wt); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: won the Ultima in March and finished 3rd in the Ladbrokes Trophy on his return; drop back in trip shouldn’t hurt, and won a mdn hdl on hv in his youth; a favourite’s chance.
Espoir De Guye 6-11-5 (150) (15.7)
Plus: going (W); course (W); form run lto (29 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); up 6lbs (OR); up in class; up 3f;
Verdict: handles the conditions and made a winning return here, but is now stepping up to 24f for the first time
Regal Encore 12-11-5 (150) (3.7)
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last run (21 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: PU on gd going at Newbury lto but previously had won over C&D on sf on return; won this race last year on hv off 142 and although 8lbs higher likely will put in a strong effort on his favourite course.
Quarenta 8-10-11 (142) (19.4)
Plus: distance (W); course (?); form run lto (29 days); down 15lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); up 5lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: yet to win above Cl 3, but improving sort and was always doing enough when winning over C&D here; not without a chance if handling the ground.
Not much time for this and The Conditional is nicely weighted to build on his return. Espoir De Guye handles the ground well, but has yet to try 24f and you can’t rule out last year’s winner Regal Encore. That’s the order I’ve got them, ahead of Quarenta.
Ascot 15.25 Gr 3 Handicap Hurdle 570 (138.2) 15.5 hv – 17 Run
Last year – 854 (138.2) 15.5f hv – 13 ran
Not So Sleepy 9/2 Jt F 7-10-3 (127) by 9 l from Monsieur Lecoq 6/1 5-11-7 (150)
Arrivederci 5-11-2 (138) (23.6)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/4
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 252.6 off 128 carrying 11-10 (Cl 3 HHd 19.5f sf Weth)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HHd (250/135.1) 19f sf Hayd 11-5 4/1 F F/14 off 136
ridden handy, progress travelling strongly when fell 3 out
31/10/20 Cl 3 HHd (65/124.6) 19.5f sf Weth 11-10 Jt F 11/18 2.75 l off 128
midfield, steady headway 4 out, chased leader 3 out, led narrowly 2 out, ridden before last, stayed on strongly flat
Plus: going (F); distance (W); recent outing (28 days); down 3lbs (wt); down 4f;
Minus: class; course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: was going well lto when falling at the 3rd last; don’t know whether he’d have won, but certainly wasn’t out of it by any means; has been raised another 2lbs as a result, whjich put him 10lbs above last winning mark; drop back in trip may prove useful.
Malaya 6-11-3 (139) (5.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/4 Best: 263.8 off 138 carrying 11-7 (Cl 2 HHd 19.5f sf Ascot)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 271.3 off 138 carrying 11-6 (List HHd 15.5f sf Ascot)
31/10/20 List HHd (105/138.0) 15.5 sf Ascot 11-6 5/1 2/8 4.75 l off 138
chased leaders, lost place after 2nd, closed from 5th, chased winner after 3 out, not fluent last, no impression flat
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (49 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: going; up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: winner of Imperial Cup in ‘18/19, but failed to score last season in just 4 starts, returned this to chase Kid Commando (-2) home over C&D; meets him on 6lbs better terms today and must have hopes of reversing that running; question about the going though!
Lightly Squeeze 6-11-1 (137)
‘19/20 record: 3/2/6 Best: 229.3 off 120 carrying12-3 (Cl 4 HHd 16f sf Plum)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/1
18/10/20 Cl 2 HHd (250/140.5) 16f gd/sf Ffos Las 10-10 9/1 7/12 18.7 l off 140
chased leaders on inside, hampered bend after 4 out, switched right soon after, pushed along approaching 3 out, weakened next
Plus: going (W); distance (W); season run (62 days); down 3lbs (OR);
Minus: class; course (?); up 3lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: has had a breathing op since running in the Welsh Champion Hurdle plus wearing a tongue tie for the first time; improvement expected, but whether it’ll be enough to win this is open to question.
Benson 5-11-1 (137) (13.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/2
‘20/21 record: 3/0/3 Best: 261.3 off 127 carrying 10-6 (List HHd 16f hv Sand)
05/12/20 List HHd (225/134.3) 16f hv Sand 10-6 9/2 1/10 1.5 l off 127
mid-division but drifted back slightly when leaders went clear, headway into third when mistake 2 out, rallied to go 2nd at last, quickened well run-in to lead final 100 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: course (?); up 9lbs (wt); up 10lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: tried in top class in 2 starts last year, but had a couple of novice wins this before winning a Listed HHd; handicapper has raised him 12lbs but that mightn’t be enough to stop him improving.
The heavy ground may prove too much for many of these and I’m inclined to leave Buzz at the top of the weights, especially as he has another11lbs to carry as a result of his last win, which sees him burdened with 11-12. The other Henderson runner, Time Flies Away, I’m ignoring as he’s not coming from a handicap like the last 11 winners. The same is true for Belfast Banter and Isolate.
Trying to sort my four in the right order is tricky but Malaya has two failures on hv ground, and it will be heavy today, so the way to go may be Benson from Arrivederci with Lightly Squeeze relegating Malaya to 4th.
Haydock 14.40 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 250 (133.7) 26.5 hv – 10 Run
Last year – 313 (137.1) hv – 9 ran
Lord Du Mesnil 4/1 6-10-5 (127) by 13 l from Calipso Collonges 14/1 7-10-5 (127)
Hill Sixteen 7-11-0 (138) (22.5)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5 (with Sue Smith yard)
‘20/21 record: 2/0/2 Best: 248.8 off 126 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 HCh 19.5f hv Ffos Las)
27 Nov Cl 2 HHdl (125/131.0) 24f gd Newb 10-4 11/10 F 1/12 1 l off 123
prominent, pushed along before 3 out, ridden approaching 2 out, stayed on well to lead final 100yds
18 Nov Cl 3 Hch (70/122.8) 19.5f hv Ffos Las 11-8 2/1 F 1/8 46 l off 126
raced wide, prominent, led before 3 out, clear 2 out, comfortable
Plus: class (Wh); going (W); form run lto (22 days/ 29 days Ch);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 19lbs (Ch wt); up 15lb (Ch OR); up in distance (Ch);
Verdict: came over from Sue Smith yard with 1/1/5 record over fences; totally dominated on debut in Cl 3 chase and a week later stayed on well to win Ch 2 HHd over 24f; has been raised 15lbs but that may not slow him and is proven on the ground; noy yet won at 24f over fences, but indication are that he’ll get the trip alright.
Sojourn 7-11-11 (140) (18.9)
’19/20 record: 1/1/2 Best: 247.8 off 127 carrying 11-2 (Cl 3 NHCh 23.5f sf Chep)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/1 Best: 254.8 off 129 carrying 11-3 (Cl 3 HCh 26f hv Carl)
01/11/20 Cl 3 HCh (125/125.8) 26f hv Carl 11-3 11/4 Jt F 1/12 15 l off 129
prominent, close up 5th, almost upsides 11th, led narrowly 12th, clear when blundered 2 out, ran on well under pressure to clear away last, cosily
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (48 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 5lbs (wt); up 11 lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: only 7 starts in total and just 3 over fences, but he’s won 2 of those and finished runner-up in the other; proven at the distance on the going, he likely will take the weight and class rise in his stride; a favourite’s chance.
Highest Sun 6-11-5 (134) (9.5)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/7
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 258.2 off 136 carrying 11-7 (Cl 2 HCh 22.5f gd Newb)
28/11/20 Cl 2 Hcap (188/134.7) 22.5f gd Newb 11-7 15/2 4/16 12.5 l off 136
mid-division, headway chasing leaders 10th, pushed along before 4 out, went 2nd next until before 2 out, chased leaders, weakened
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 2lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course (?); up in distance;
Verdict: second season chaser who won on his only try at this distance in a Cl 3 Nov Hcap last December; however, has weakened when tried at shorter distances; nevertheless, chance on 4th lto at Newbury and is proven on hv ground.
Lord Napier 7-11-3 (132)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/2
‘20/21 record: 0/1/3 Best: 255.4 off 132 carrying 11-6 (Cl 3 NHCh 23.5 hv Chep)
05/12/70 Cl 3 NHCh (70/128.9) 23.5f hv Chep 11-6 7/1 2/7 5.5 l off 132
chased leader, mistake 4 out (usually 5 out), ridden along before 3 out (usually 4 out), stayed on nicely after 2 out (usually 3 out)
Plus: going (F); form run lto (14 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up in class, up in distance;
Verdict: just 3 chases but showed promise on last run at Chepstow a fortnight ago; however is stepping up in class from was he has experienced so far and at best a place chance at best.
Lot of young inexperienced chasers here and leading the field are Sojourn and Hill Sixteen and I think they will likely finish in that order with Highest Sun getting the better of Lord Napier for this place.
Ascot 15.00 Listed Handicap Chase 342 (144.9) 24 hv – 11 Run (10 at best)
Last year – 570 (148.3) 24f hv – 10 ran
Regal Encore 16/1 11-10-7 (142) by 0.75 l from Acting Lass 12/1 8-10-12 (147)
Master Malarkey 5/1 6-10-13 (148) always behind PU last
The Conditional 8-11-1 (146) (5.8)
Plus: class (W+); going (Wh); distance (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course; up 4lvs (wt); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: won the Ultima in March and finished 3rd in the Ladbrokes Trophy on his return; drop back in trip shouldn’t hurt, and won a mdn hdl on hv in his youth; a favourite’s chance.
Espoir De Guye 6-11-5 (150) (15.7)
Plus: going (W); course (W); form run lto (29 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); up 6lbs (OR); up in class; up 3f;
Verdict: handles the conditions and made a winning return here, but is now stepping up to 24f for the first time
Regal Encore 12-11-5 (150) (3.7)
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last run (21 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: PU on gd going at Newbury lto but previously had won over C&D on sf on return; won this race last year on hv off 142 and although 8lbs higher likely will put in a strong effort on his favourite course.
Quarenta 8-10-11 (142) (19.4)
Plus: distance (W); course (?); form run lto (29 days); down 15lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); up 5lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: yet to win above Cl 3, but improving sort and was always doing enough when winning over C&D here; not without a chance if handling the ground.
Not much time for this and The Conditional is nicely weighted to build on his return. Espoir De Guye handles the ground well, but has yet to try 24f and you can’t rule out last year’s winner Regal Encore. That’s the order I’ve got them, ahead of Quarenta.
Ascot 15.25 Gr 3 Handicap Hurdle 570 (138.2) 15.5 hv – 17 Run
Last year – 854 (138.2) 15.5f hv – 13 ran
Not So Sleepy 9/2 Jt F 7-10-3 (127) by 9 l from Monsieur Lecoq 6/1 5-11-7 (150)
Arrivederci 5-11-2 (138) (23.6)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/4
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 252.6 off 128 carrying 11-10 (Cl 3 HHd 19.5f sf Weth)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HHd (250/135.1) 19f sf Hayd 11-5 4/1 F F/14 off 136
ridden handy, progress travelling strongly when fell 3 out
31/10/20 Cl 3 HHd (65/124.6) 19.5f sf Weth 11-10 Jt F 11/18 2.75 l off 128
midfield, steady headway 4 out, chased leader 3 out, led narrowly 2 out, ridden before last, stayed on strongly flat
Plus: going (F); distance (W); recent outing (28 days); down 3lbs (wt); down 4f;
Minus: class; course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: was going well lto when falling at the 3rd last; don’t know whether he’d have won, but certainly wasn’t out of it by any means; has been raised another 2lbs as a result, whjich put him 10lbs above last winning mark; drop back in trip may prove useful.
Malaya 6-11-3 (139) (5.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/4 Best: 263.8 off 138 carrying 11-7 (Cl 2 HHd 19.5f sf Ascot)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 271.3 off 138 carrying 11-6 (List HHd 15.5f sf Ascot)
31/10/20 List HHd (105/138.0) 15.5 sf Ascot 11-6 5/1 2/8 4.75 l off 138
chased leaders, lost place after 2nd, closed from 5th, chased winner after 3 out, not fluent last, no impression flat
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (49 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: going; up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: winner of Imperial Cup in ‘18/19, but failed to score last season in just 4 starts, returned this to chase Kid Commando (-2) home over C&D; meets him on 6lbs better terms today and must have hopes of reversing that running; question about the going though!
Lightly Squeeze 6-11-1 (137)
‘19/20 record: 3/2/6 Best: 229.3 off 120 carrying12-3 (Cl 4 HHd 16f sf Plum)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/1
18/10/20 Cl 2 HHd (250/140.5) 16f gd/sf Ffos Las 10-10 9/1 7/12 18.7 l off 140
chased leaders on inside, hampered bend after 4 out, switched right soon after, pushed along approaching 3 out, weakened next
Plus: going (W); distance (W); season run (62 days); down 3lbs (OR);
Minus: class; course (?); up 3lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: has had a breathing op since running in the Welsh Champion Hurdle plus wearing a tongue tie for the first time; improvement expected, but whether it’ll be enough to win this is open to question.
Benson 5-11-1 (137) (13.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/2
‘20/21 record: 3/0/3 Best: 261.3 off 127 carrying 10-6 (List HHd 16f hv Sand)
05/12/20 List HHd (225/134.3) 16f hv Sand 10-6 9/2 1/10 1.5 l off 127
mid-division but drifted back slightly when leaders went clear, headway into third when mistake 2 out, rallied to go 2nd at last, quickened well run-in to lead final 100 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: course (?); up 9lbs (wt); up 10lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: tried in top class in 2 starts last year, but had a couple of novice wins this before winning a Listed HHd; handicapper has raised him 12lbs but that mightn’t be enough to stop him improving.
The heavy ground may prove too much for many of these and I’m inclined to leave Buzz at the top of the weights, especially as he has another11lbs to carry as a result of his last win, which sees him burdened with 11-12. The other Henderson runner, Time Flies Away, I’m ignoring as he’s not coming from a handicap like the last 11 winners. The same is true for Belfast Banter and Isolate.
Trying to sort my four in the right order is tricky but Malaya has two failures on hv ground, and it will be heavy today, so the way to go may be Benson from Arrivederci with Lightly Squeeze relegating Malaya to 4th.