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Post by makingitslowly on Oct 17, 2009 22:21:32 GMT
Two for tomorrow ;
Kempton...3.25...Cootehill Kempton...4.35...Treaty flyer
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Post by makingitslowly on Oct 19, 2009 9:46:43 GMT
One winner yesterday,here is one for today ;
Pontefract...3.40...Frozen power
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Post by seathestars on Oct 19, 2009 18:48:56 GMT
I have some newspapers articles and some pdfs that may help
PM me if you need more info
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Post by makingitslowly on Oct 21, 2009 9:30:29 GMT
Cheers for the offer STS Im sure you will get some takers.
Southwell...3.40...Quest for success
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Post by makingitslowly on Oct 24, 2009 9:51:31 GMT
Doncaster...3.30...Shakespearean...Elusive Pimpernel(Dutched)
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Post by makingitslowly on Oct 29, 2009 11:07:46 GMT
Lingfield...2.10...Snoqualmie girl...Acquisition
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Post by BC on Oct 29, 2009 13:41:16 GMT
Intersting today MIS!!
Lingfield,210,Baila Me / Rosika
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Post by BC on Oct 29, 2009 15:45:01 GMT
Had to be a bit patient for this one (13 days)...
Lingfield,210,Baila Me W 3/1 +18 Rosika 2 -4 net +14 (should have added the stakes, same as on Mark's site 6 and 4)
New Set Summary: Races,2,Won 2,Bank +19.00
Total Summary: Races 12, Won 8, SR 67%, Bank +23.71
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Post by makingitslowly on Oct 30, 2009 9:09:07 GMT
Congrats BC you got first two I got the last two lol.
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Post by makingitslowly on Oct 30, 2009 9:53:30 GMT
Wetherby...2.40...Nelsons spice
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Post by makingitslowly on Oct 31, 2009 11:54:51 GMT
Ascot...1.50...Just amazing...Seven is my number
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Post by makingitslowly on Nov 7, 2009 9:11:17 GMT
Doncaster...3.15...Kings destiny...Hillview boy
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Post by seathestars on Nov 8, 2009 4:10:25 GMT
whats ur up to date p and l w1th th1s one mate
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Post by makingitslowly on Nov 9, 2009 9:18:25 GMT
whats ur up to date p and l w1th th1s one mate Not good mate,this is more an obsession than anything else.I dont back these ones myself and would not advise others to either. Who knows though If I plod away long enough I may find a way to make them profitable.
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Post by BC on Nov 9, 2009 11:42:36 GMT
Carlisle,155,Roll Along
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Post by seathestars on Nov 9, 2009 13:44:13 GMT
took this point from another forum....what makes a good bet??
You must believe his chance is much better (not just slightly over-priced) than the odds available imply. A price likely to crash.
Not a thread each member should contribute to every day or even every week, just when he's seen outstanding value.
So if you consider a horse to be a true 4/7 63.6% chance and is available at 4/5 52.4% it's a professional bet. Likewise one believed to be a 3/1 25% chance available at 9/2 18.2%; a 10/1 9% chance at 16/1 5.9%, 20/1 4.8% at 40/1 2.4% or 50/1 2% at 200/1 0.5% and so on. The bigger the price the less (percentage) difference is needed to be a professional bet.
To help PL members who are not accustomed to the table of odds and chances, I here is an explanation that even a novice punter should understand. To make it easier for them to spot a “professional bet”.
“Every punter knows for each £ he / she stakes on a 3/1 winner, he gets £4 returned (winning £3 plus £1 stake back). For every 100 bets of level stakes at 3/1 a punter must win 25 to break even (25 X 4 = 100). Staking 100 points and getting 100 back. If he wins more than 25 he will make a profit, less than 25 will result in a loss. Therefore, 25% = true odds of 3/1. So a punter should only back a 3/1 shot if he believes it has a better than 25% chance of winning.
Gamblers want to know “who's going to win”? But they should not necessarily back the horse with “the best chance of winning”. The important question is “in your opinion, who is “VALUE to win”.
Bookmakers stay in business by betting to an over-round figure. In a four horse race with a competitive market he may offer:
A 11/8 (42.1%), B 2/1 (33.3%), C 100/30 (23.1%), D 11/1 (8.3%). 42.1 + 33.3 + 23.1 + 8.3 = 106.8% Working to 106.8% for an over-round of 6.8%.
Yet betting is all about opinions, bookmakers prices might not be right. If after studying form of the race above a punter believes:
A has a 40% 6/4 chance of winning. B 30% almost 9/4 C 20% 4/1 D 10% 9/1 All four adding up to 100%.
Comparing the punters prices to bookmakers; the only horse at a better price (value) with bookmakers is D at 11/1. D is the only possible bet, despite in the punters own opinion having the worst chance of winning. Quarter of A's chance, a third of B's and half of C. With a 10% strike rate at 11/1 showing a profit. Where as a 40% strike rate at 11/8, 30% at 2/1 and 20% at 100/30 all result in a loss. (Though in our Professional Bets thread D would not constitute a bet as the value is only a marginal 1.7%. 10% - 8.3% = 1.7%).
Even if a punter does not want to work out a race to 100%, knowing the table, seeing each price as a percentage and vice versa helps to find value.
To calculate the percentage each price is worth, add a point and divide by 100. So 3/1 = 3 + 1 = 4, 100 '/, 4 = 25%. 100/30 = 3.33/1 + 1 = 4.33, 100 '/, 4.33 = 23.1% And so on”. For odds in decimals (what you see on betfair or tote) there is no need to add the 1, just divide 100 by the figure.
Here are the prices and their percentages. Evens 50, 21/20 48.8, 11/10 47.6, 6/5 45.5, 5/4 44.4, 11/8 42.1, 6/4 40, 13/8 38.1, 7/4 36.4, 15/8 34.8, 2/1 33.3, 85/40 32, 9/4 30.8, 5/2 28.6, 11/4 26.7, 3/1 25, 100/30 23.1, 7/2 22.2, 4/1 20, 9/2 18.2, 5/1 16.7, 11/2 15.4, 6/1 14.3, 13/2 13.3, 7/1 12.5, 15/2 11.7, 8/1 11.1, 17/2 10.5, 9/1 10, 10/1 9.1, 11/1 8.3, 12/1 7.7, 13/1 7.1, 14/1 6.7, 15/1 6.2, 16/1 5.9, 18/1 5.3, 20/1 4.8, 22/1 4.3, 25/1 3.8, 28/1 3.4, 33/1 3, 40/1 2.4, 50/1 2, 66/1 1.5, 80/1 1.2, 100/1 1, 132/1 0.75, 150/1 0.66, 200/1 0.5, 250/1 0.4, 300/1 0.33, 400/1 0.25, 500/1 0.2, 800/1 0.125, 1000/1 0.1, 2000/1 0.05
For an Evens shot to be a good bet you must believe it to have a better than 50% chance of winning, 21/20 48.8%, 11/10 47.6% and so on (see above). Though a margin for error should be factored in. Few gamblers are 100% accurate, so it may be best not to back what you consider a true 4/1 shot at 9/2 but to do so at 5/1 or more.
For odds-on percentages, subtract the odds-against equivalent from 100. So for 4/6, 6/4 = 40% , 100 – 40 = 60, therefore 4/6 = 60%
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Post by BC on Nov 9, 2009 14:08:27 GMT
Carlisle,155,Roll Along L -10 (very poor effort - wonder if something was wrong with the horse)
New Set Summary: Races,3,Won 2, SR 67%, Bank +9.00
Total Summary: Races 13, Won 8, SR 62%, Bank +13.71
edited to correct maths
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Post by makingitslowly on Nov 13, 2009 9:10:05 GMT
Cheltenham...2.25...Tramantano Wolverhampton...8.50...Grand opera
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Post by makingitslowly on Nov 14, 2009 10:07:52 GMT
Cheltenham...2.35...Bible lord...Northern alliance...Poquelin...Tranquil sea / Dutched at 25/1 11/1 14/1 7/1
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Post by BC on Nov 15, 2009 12:56:54 GMT
Cheltenham,145,Master Minded
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Post by BC on Nov 15, 2009 15:32:14 GMT
Cheltenham,145,Master Minded L -10
New Set Summary: Races,4,Won 2, SR 50%, Bank -1.00
Total Summary: Races 14, Won 8, SR 57%, Bank +3.71
edited to correct maths
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Post by Kimmy on Nov 16, 2009 8:55:05 GMT
Cheltenham...2.35...Bible lord...Northern alliance...Poquelin...Tranquil sea / Dutched at 25/1 11/1 14/1 7/1 Nice one. And a very good example of 'Dutching.'
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Post by makingitslowly on Nov 16, 2009 9:01:48 GMT
Cheers Kimmy.................now I just need to do it on a regular basis...LOL.
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Post by Kimmy on Nov 16, 2009 9:31:19 GMT
I have included this on the Jolly Judge Dutching thread.
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Post by BC on Nov 21, 2009 13:30:44 GMT
Haydock,255,Kauto Star
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Post by BC on Nov 21, 2009 16:39:28 GMT
Haydock,255,Kauto Star W4/6 +6.67
New Set Summary: Races,5,Won 3, SR 60%, Bank +5.67
Total Summary: Races 15, Won 9, SR 60%, Bank +10.38
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Post by Kimmy on Nov 21, 2009 19:40:20 GMT
Haydock,255,Kauto Star W4/6 +6.67
New Set Summary: Races,5,Won 3, SR 60%, Bank +5.67 Total Summary: Races 15, Won 9, SR 60%, Bank +10.38 Moving along nicely.
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Post by makingitslowly on Nov 23, 2009 21:16:52 GMT
Haydock,255,Kauto Star W4/6 +6.67
New Set Summary: Races,5,Won 3, SR 60%, Bank +5.67 Total Summary: Races 15, Won 9, SR 60%, Bank +10.38 Well done mate
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Post by BC on Dec 2, 2009 11:15:54 GMT
Fairyhouse,1245,Dunguib
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Post by BC on Dec 2, 2009 13:14:08 GMT
Fairyhouse,1245,Dunguib W 3/10
I know the price was silly, but really, what could beat it? Money for nothing and your chicks for free.
New Set Summary: Races,6,Won 4, SR 67%, Bank +8.67
Total Summary: Races 16, Won 10, SR 63%, Bank +13.38
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