|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 2, 2009 8:18:23 GMT
Todays ;
Hereford...4.10 Benefit Game Norborne Bandit
Lingfield...4.50 Desert Streak Keep Dancing
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 7, 2009 9:56:26 GMT
One for today ;
Bath...4.40 Heaven / Top Rated Leftontheshelf Orange Pip
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 9, 2009 8:47:28 GMT
Two for today ;
Uttoxeter...4.05 Rajeh Rory Boy Siver Adonis
Doncaster...4.20 Bonnie Charlie Broad Cairn Russian Jar
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Sept 9, 2009 12:39:37 GMT
Good to see this thread keeping going.
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 9, 2009 18:44:53 GMT
Can I aftertime one for today? It is a VDW board after all. Doncaster,310,Twice Over - W 4/6 +6.67 I did post it elsewhere - my first one for September. I'll put them up here too if I may, (pre-race in future). There won't be many. I told KP I was losing interest, but I still have a quick peek.
|
|
|
Post by Kimmy on Sept 9, 2009 18:47:48 GMT
Nice one.
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 10, 2009 8:28:24 GMT
Can I aftertime one for today? It is a VDW board after all. Doncaster,310,Twice Over - W 4/6 +6.67 I did post it elsewhere - my first one for September. I'll put them up here too if I may, (pre-race in future). There won't be many. I told KP I was losing interest, but I still have a quick peek. No problem BC you are more than welcome.
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 10, 2009 8:30:55 GMT
Two for today ; Uttoxeter...4.05 Rajeh [glow=red,2,300]1ST AT 7/2[/glow] Rory Boy Siver Adonis Doncaster...4.20 Bonnie Charlie Broad Cairn Russian Jar One winner at 7/2,so not a bad day.
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 10, 2009 13:05:20 GMT
Well done MIS.
Here's my pretty obvious choice of the day...
Doncaster,450,Fantasia (was 5/6 this morning, now 8/11)
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 10, 2009 15:59:49 GMT
Doncaster,450,Fantasia - W 5/6 +8.33
Summary: Selections 2, Won 2, Bank +15.00
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 11, 2009 8:34:37 GMT
Off to a storming start there BC,well done.
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 11, 2009 10:36:17 GMT
Thanks MIS - although both were very short-priced favourites. I'll be happy just to keep it in profit with a 50%+SR.
|
|
|
Post by daretodream on Sept 11, 2009 23:50:21 GMT
"LINK REMOVED"
its all here
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 12, 2009 9:29:24 GMT
Daretodream welcome to the forum,please feel free to join in but dont post links to other forums as a first post,I would hate to have to ban someone.
The thread you mention is more the "Fulham Method" than VDW.I have been keeping up with that particular thread and it appears to me that anything that directly oppose's certain views is written off.Here at Kimmypops we dont like to limit conversations but instead encourage people to share different views and opinions.I believe Fulham himself admits that he does not know the method in its entirety,which means others may have something of value to add.
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 12, 2009 13:01:29 GMT
Good,2.10,Suruor EW
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 12, 2009 13:29:14 GMT
Good,2.10,Suruor EW - L -10.00
Summary: Selections 3, Won 2, SR 67%, Bank +5.00
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 13, 2009 21:21:17 GMT
Some food for thought ;
"The combined figures VDW referred to, 3-3-3 99%, 3-3-4 98% etc, are facts not probabilities as VDW inferred them to be in siao. The figures are from his own extensive surveys (or perhaps someone else's). He did not add the percentages of the last three placings to obtain the 99%, 98% etc. If they were added then in the case of 3-3-4 the four would be 32% but he gives figures of 112 26% and 211 27%. The percentages given by VDW were most likely true at one time but you will find in present day racing the figures are a lot less, probably nearer half VDW's figures. This is due to the changes in racing and in particular the introduction of All Weather Gallops. With the last three placing percentages being a lot less it follows that the combined figure percentages must also be less. This ultimately means that 85-90% strike rate is no longer attainable and a more realistic figure would be about 40-45% using the so called consistent form method."
How the 80%+ S/R was probably achieved in reality ;
"As far as I can see the only way VDW could have done his survey for the combined figures (3-3-3 99% etc) was to go through his paper day after day marking off the 3 most consistent from the betting forecast and recording the results. The minimum number of occurrences needed to obtain 99% is 67 of which 66 would need to be successful. So I guess the survey could have been done over the period of a year.
One thing puzzles me though, if the first 5/6 in the betting forecast produce 83% winners (Methodmaker, accepted by VDW), then how can any consistency form figure combination, 3-3-3, 3-3-4 etc, produce more than this in the long term."
"If you use the magic figures 67 and 66 then to obtain the percentage figures given by VDW for his combined figures 99% (3-3-3), 98% (3-3-4), 96% (3-4-5), 95% (4-4-4), 90% (4-5-6), 73% (5-6-12), 17% (16-18-30) you need 66 wins from 67 occurrences 99%, 65 from 66 98%, 64 from 67 96%, 63 from 66 95%, 60 from 67 90%, 49 from 67 73%, 11 from 66 17%. Add them all together 378 wins from 466 occurrences 81%. So all the wins to runs that made up his entire survey for all his combined figures when added together will give a total wins to runs ratio of approximately 83%."
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 13, 2009 21:28:19 GMT
A re-post from another forum ;
"Sorry, I can't print all of Lee's last letter but here are a couple of hints he gave: The first fact that has to be pointed out is that anyone, including G Hall, is able to spot the "key" as he phrased it with the information that VDW had written at the time. However, the final part of the solution came and tied it all together in Systematic Betting and the Roushayd example, and, as intended, it should carry the reader a long way. Notwithstanding that, just the first SEVEN examples that VDW elaborated on, along with Prominent King, still reveal the main crux of the method. When mentioning "Subject to other considerations" he was referring to the way he rated Prominent King and later stated that there are numerous ways of rating and it is simple to devise one yourself. Note that at that point he introduced the Ability rating. Read and re-read every "missing link" article and letter, and note everything that is said, there are certain phrases and words that he refers to more than once. Within his Pegwell Bay example for instance, there is a big hint, but the eye manages to glance right across it. If you feel that your interpretation of the method is is in any way complicated, then it most certainly is, for sure."
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 16, 2009 11:13:00 GMT
Sandown,405,Bankable
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 16, 2009 17:01:28 GMT
Sandown,405,Bankable - W 4/7 +5.71 Summary: Selections 4, Won 3, SR 75%, Bank +10.71
Maybe I should quit while I'm ahead
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 17, 2009 8:15:59 GMT
Congrats on another winner BC.
I will get to posting more selections myself soon.
|
|
Larry
Junior Member
Posts: 55
|
Post by Larry on Sept 17, 2009 9:14:22 GMT
Well done BC dont look in here often but a VDWer posting selections is unheard of winning ones as well BC you the man
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 17, 2009 11:01:05 GMT
Congrats on another winner BC. Well done BC dont look in here often but a VDWer posting selections is unheard of winning ones as well BC you the man Thanks, but I think it is known as "luck". The wheels will probably come off soon! BC
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 18, 2009 3:09:47 GMT
Newb,355,Stimulation
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 18, 2009 8:18:09 GMT
[glow=red,2,300]L[/glow]Labour [glow=red,2,300]U[/glow]Under [glow=red,2,300]C[/glow]Correct [glow=red,2,300]K[/glow]Knowledge
|
|
|
Post by BC on Sept 18, 2009 16:52:32 GMT
Newb,355,Stimulation - L 6/4 - 10.00 Summary: Selections 5, Won 3, SR 60%, Bank +0.71
More luck... just the wrong sort!
|
|
Larry
Junior Member
Posts: 55
|
Post by Larry on Sept 18, 2009 21:45:10 GMT
Unlucky m8 was hoping u would hit that VDW magic figure of 80% onwards & upwards BC
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 19, 2009 12:13:04 GMT
These are not my selections but,were posted by somene called Bobajobber over at UK Betting Tips.He got 5 from 7 the other day,so we will see how he doe's today ;
AYR
1.35 ATTASH Aquarian Spirirt Tanto Quanto
2.05 INVINCIBLE FORCE Prescription Cape Vale
2.35 BEYOND DESIRE Conniption Jeanie Johnston
3.10 MAC GILLIE EOIN Fol Hollow Jimmy Styles
4.25 PRINCE SIEGFIELD Dream Lodge Baila Me
CATTERICK
1.25 TEXAS QUEEN So Bazaar Yeadon
3.05 IZUIZORIZUAINT Jehu Novay Essjay
3.35 WICKED DAZE Lost Soldier Three Embsay Crag
4.10 GREAT ART Business Class Miss Kittyhawk
4.45 PARKS PRODIGY Lady Sorceror Fell Pack
NEWBURY
2.50 CILL RIALAG My Aunt Fanny Broomielaw
3.25 STRIKE THE DEAL Triple Aspect Total Gallery
NEWMARKET
1.45 LUCY BROWN Dream Express Fleeting Star
2.25 ARCOLA Its Dubai Dolly Brief Look
3.00 CALL IT ON Full Toss Princess Of Johanne
5.25 MULTAHAB Luminous Gold Silver Prelude
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 20, 2009 11:37:34 GMT
One from me ;
Hamilton..4.10...Petrovsky
|
|
|
Post by makingitslowly on Sept 21, 2009 8:05:05 GMT
One from me ; Hamilton..4.10...Petrovsky Well I m still keeping up my run of loosers LOL.Back to the drawing board me thinks.
|
|