Post by Old Timer on Nov 20, 2020 11:42:36 GMT
Just a trial run today - I need it!! - and I’m afraid I’ve ended up with the two at the front of the betting. Still, can’t help it and I might yet a modest reverse forecast too (high hopes, I don't think).
Ascot 14.05 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 156 (135.2) 21f sf – 9 Run
Last year – 219 (137.0) sf – 7 ran
Flying Angel 3/1 8-11-10 (140) by 8 l from Sky Pirate 7/4 F 6-10-13 (132)
King Of Realms 8-11-6 (138) (0.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/4 Best 272.3 off 138 carrying 11-2 (Cl 2 HcCh 20f gd/sf Warw)
14/03/20 Cl 2 HcCh (250/134.4) 20.5f gd/sf Kemp 11-10 16/1 F/20 off 138
mid-division on outer, fell 2nd
08/02/20 Cl 2 HcCh (414139/8) 20f gd/sf Warw 11-2 3/1 F 3/8 5.75 l off 138
chased leaders, challenged 10th, led 3 out, headed before last, lost 2nd flat, no extra
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); course (W); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: distance;
Verdict: looks to be on the short side for him, and having tried a visor and blinkers of late, they’re now trying first-time cheek-pieces to keep him interested; would prefer gd or gd/sf as well, so not for me.
Count Meribel 8-11-10 (142) (4.4)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/3 Best: 272.8 off 146 carrying 11-6 (Gr 3 Hcap Ch 20f sf Chelt)
25/01/20 Gr 3 HcCh (284/142.1) 20.5f sf Chelt 11-3 7/1 PU/10 off 145
always behind, tailed off when pulled up before 12th
16/11/19 Gr 3 HcCh (900/142.9) 20f sf Chelt 11-6 9/1 6/17 16.1 l off 146
in touch, driven to chase leaders after 3 out (usual 4 out), outpaced when left 4th 2 out, no danger after, lost 2 places near finish
Plus: class (W); going (F); down in class; down 3lbs (OR);
Minus: course; distance; 300-day break; up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: won his first 2 chases over 20f in November 2018, but then finished last in Cl 2 NCh here and finished down the field in the RSA novices at Cheltenham; ran 3 times last year without note and returns from a 300-day break down in class and off a 3lb lower mark; a hopeful selection at best, but is best caught fresh.
Red Disk 5-11-12 (144)
‘19/20 record: 2/0/4 Best: 263 off 135 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 NHcCh 20f sf Ludlow)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 272.0 off 144 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HcCh 21.5f gd MRas)
17/10/20 Cl 2 HcCh (225/133.6) 21.5f gd MRas 11-12 11/2 3/10 5.6l off 144
disputed lead, lost position before 2 out, kept on but lacked pace of front pair on run-in
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); form run lto (34 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: a winner in France, got off the mark for the yard in fine style on second start last season; good return this when he finished 3rd to fitter horses and some distance to the rest; proven on sf ground and at the distance, looks to have a favourite’s chance.
Deauville Dancer 9-11-1 (133) (7.8)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/2 Best: 260.4 off 135 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HcCh 19f sf Exe)
27/12/19 Cl 2 HcCh (313/140.1) 24f sf Kemp 11-2 14/1 6/11 21.7 l off 135
off the pace in mid-division, headway 8th, weakened before 3 out
06/12/19 Cl 3 HcCh (103/129.1) 19 sf Exe 11-12 16/1 2/7 3.75 l off 135
tracked leaders, effort before 3 out, ridden after next, one pace before last, stayed to snatch 2nd post, no impression with winner
Plus: going (F); distance (W); down 1lb (wt); down 2lbs (OR); down in trip;
Minus: class; course (?); 329-day break;
Verdict: starts out for a new stable having only had a couple of starts last season, finishing less than 4l to Espoire De Guye (-9) over 19f at Exeter and then again failing to stay 24f at Kempton; will enjoy a 23lbs turn at the weights with Espoire De Guye which is not to be sneezed at, however, besides first start for new trainer, he’s never even been placed in Cl 2, plus all is best form is on gd or gd/sf.
Espoire De Guye 6-11-12 (144) (13.9)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/4 Best: 265.3 off 130 carrying 10-11 (Cl 2 HcCh 19f hv Asc)
10/03/20 List Nov HcCh (394/141.4) 20f sf Chelt 11-6 8/1 PU/20 off 144
held up towards rear on outside, headway before 9th, lost place after 4 out, well behind when pulled up before 2 out
21/12/19 Cl 2 HcCh (219/135.3) 19f hv Ascot 10-11 11/4 1/12 10 l off 130
chased leaders went 2nd before 3 out, led going well before next, soon clear and stayed on strongly
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); down in class;
Minus: distance; up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: has had a breathing op since last seen in March, but that doesn’t explain his Cheltenham debacle (an off day??); nonetheless, he’s carrying 5lbs more than he’s ever done before and is 23lbs worse off with Deauville Dancer, which is a sizeable amount, should love the ground though and has gone well fresh.
I don’t like King Of Realms as the distance seems wrong for him, the going too, plus they keep swopping the headgear to keep him interested, Definitely not for me. Deauville Dancer has a few problems too on his debut for his new stable, the main one being that despite winning at a lower level he’s never even been placed in Cl 2. I am tempted by the huge turnaround in the weights with Espoire De Guye, but he’s not for me.
The obvious one is of course, is Red Disk and I’ll be very surprised if he gets beat. Whar follows him home is a bit of a conundrum, and I do feel that Espoire De Guye has a load of weight to shoulder, but Venetia is getting into form and he has won here, so that’s my runner-up, while I take a chance of Count Meribel to finish 3rd ahead of his stable companion Earlofthecotswolds.
Ascot 14.05 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 156 (135.2) 21f sf – 9 Run
Last year – 219 (137.0) sf – 7 ran
Flying Angel 3/1 8-11-10 (140) by 8 l from Sky Pirate 7/4 F 6-10-13 (132)
King Of Realms 8-11-6 (138) (0.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/4 Best 272.3 off 138 carrying 11-2 (Cl 2 HcCh 20f gd/sf Warw)
14/03/20 Cl 2 HcCh (250/134.4) 20.5f gd/sf Kemp 11-10 16/1 F/20 off 138
mid-division on outer, fell 2nd
08/02/20 Cl 2 HcCh (414139/8) 20f gd/sf Warw 11-2 3/1 F 3/8 5.75 l off 138
chased leaders, challenged 10th, led 3 out, headed before last, lost 2nd flat, no extra
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); course (W); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: distance;
Verdict: looks to be on the short side for him, and having tried a visor and blinkers of late, they’re now trying first-time cheek-pieces to keep him interested; would prefer gd or gd/sf as well, so not for me.
Count Meribel 8-11-10 (142) (4.4)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/3 Best: 272.8 off 146 carrying 11-6 (Gr 3 Hcap Ch 20f sf Chelt)
25/01/20 Gr 3 HcCh (284/142.1) 20.5f sf Chelt 11-3 7/1 PU/10 off 145
always behind, tailed off when pulled up before 12th
16/11/19 Gr 3 HcCh (900/142.9) 20f sf Chelt 11-6 9/1 6/17 16.1 l off 146
in touch, driven to chase leaders after 3 out (usual 4 out), outpaced when left 4th 2 out, no danger after, lost 2 places near finish
Plus: class (W); going (F); down in class; down 3lbs (OR);
Minus: course; distance; 300-day break; up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: won his first 2 chases over 20f in November 2018, but then finished last in Cl 2 NCh here and finished down the field in the RSA novices at Cheltenham; ran 3 times last year without note and returns from a 300-day break down in class and off a 3lb lower mark; a hopeful selection at best, but is best caught fresh.
Red Disk 5-11-12 (144)
‘19/20 record: 2/0/4 Best: 263 off 135 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 NHcCh 20f sf Ludlow)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 272.0 off 144 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HcCh 21.5f gd MRas)
17/10/20 Cl 2 HcCh (225/133.6) 21.5f gd MRas 11-12 11/2 3/10 5.6l off 144
disputed lead, lost position before 2 out, kept on but lacked pace of front pair on run-in
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); form run lto (34 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: a winner in France, got off the mark for the yard in fine style on second start last season; good return this when he finished 3rd to fitter horses and some distance to the rest; proven on sf ground and at the distance, looks to have a favourite’s chance.
Deauville Dancer 9-11-1 (133) (7.8)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/2 Best: 260.4 off 135 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HcCh 19f sf Exe)
27/12/19 Cl 2 HcCh (313/140.1) 24f sf Kemp 11-2 14/1 6/11 21.7 l off 135
off the pace in mid-division, headway 8th, weakened before 3 out
06/12/19 Cl 3 HcCh (103/129.1) 19 sf Exe 11-12 16/1 2/7 3.75 l off 135
tracked leaders, effort before 3 out, ridden after next, one pace before last, stayed to snatch 2nd post, no impression with winner
Plus: going (F); distance (W); down 1lb (wt); down 2lbs (OR); down in trip;
Minus: class; course (?); 329-day break;
Verdict: starts out for a new stable having only had a couple of starts last season, finishing less than 4l to Espoire De Guye (-9) over 19f at Exeter and then again failing to stay 24f at Kempton; will enjoy a 23lbs turn at the weights with Espoire De Guye which is not to be sneezed at, however, besides first start for new trainer, he’s never even been placed in Cl 2, plus all is best form is on gd or gd/sf.
Espoire De Guye 6-11-12 (144) (13.9)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/4 Best: 265.3 off 130 carrying 10-11 (Cl 2 HcCh 19f hv Asc)
10/03/20 List Nov HcCh (394/141.4) 20f sf Chelt 11-6 8/1 PU/20 off 144
held up towards rear on outside, headway before 9th, lost place after 4 out, well behind when pulled up before 2 out
21/12/19 Cl 2 HcCh (219/135.3) 19f hv Ascot 10-11 11/4 1/12 10 l off 130
chased leaders went 2nd before 3 out, led going well before next, soon clear and stayed on strongly
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); down in class;
Minus: distance; up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: has had a breathing op since last seen in March, but that doesn’t explain his Cheltenham debacle (an off day??); nonetheless, he’s carrying 5lbs more than he’s ever done before and is 23lbs worse off with Deauville Dancer, which is a sizeable amount, should love the ground though and has gone well fresh.
I don’t like King Of Realms as the distance seems wrong for him, the going too, plus they keep swopping the headgear to keep him interested, Definitely not for me. Deauville Dancer has a few problems too on his debut for his new stable, the main one being that despite winning at a lower level he’s never even been placed in Cl 2. I am tempted by the huge turnaround in the weights with Espoire De Guye, but he’s not for me.
The obvious one is of course, is Red Disk and I’ll be very surprised if he gets beat. Whar follows him home is a bit of a conundrum, and I do feel that Espoire De Guye has a load of weight to shoulder, but Venetia is getting into form and he has won here, so that’s my runner-up, while I take a chance of Count Meribel to finish 3rd ahead of his stable companion Earlofthecotswolds.