Post by Old Timer on Mar 14, 2020 12:04:43 GMT
Well it was a good Cheltenham in that I had time for the first day and increasingly less and less as the week wore on. I find it hard to believe that there is still racing in England, but not for long I fear. So in case there is none by next weekend may I wish you all to keep well.
Uttoxeter 15.35 Listed Handicap Chase 844 (135.4) 34f hv – 15 Run (14 at best)
Last year – 847 (138) hv – 18 ran
Potters Corner 20/1 9-10-7 (135) by 3l from MS Parfois 8/1 8-11-4 (146)
Prime Venture 20/1 8-10-11 (139) was 18l 4th
Truckers Legend 8-10-10 (141) (160.9)
27 Dec Gr 3 HCh (854/139.4) 30.5 f hv Chep 10/1 10-5 1.75l 2/17 off 139 – 142.9
prominent early, chased leaders, went 2nd from 2 out, stayed on flat, unable to challenge winner
Not at all exposed in the chasing game, wining his 3rd start at Chepstow and then finishing a fine second in the Welsh National there; a rise of 2lbs in the weights not severe.
Plus: class (F+); going (F+); distance (F+); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); 78-day break; up 5lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR); down in class;
Verdict: unexposed over fences ad this looks a great opportunity.
De Rasher Counter 8-11-12 (157) (162.4)
25 Jan Gr 2 Ch (573/) 25.5f Chelt 12/1 11-4 33l 4/6 off 158 –
chased leaders, mistake and lost place 12th, not fluent 13th, effort16th, hit 17th, weakened after 3 out
30 Nov Gr 3 HCh (1424/147.8) 26f gd/sf Newb 12/1 10-10 1.5l 1/24 off 149 – 160.4
chased leaders, went 2nd 16th, led before 4 out, stayed on strongly
Stepped up well in class to win the Ladbrokes Trophy but then found the rise to Cl 2 beyond him; drops down in class today, but not tried beyond26f and even with his jockey claiming 3lbs gives a bunch of weight to the field.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W?); course (W); recent run (49days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: down 2 classes; up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: a lot of weight to give away over a trip he’s never tried before.
Christmas In April 8-10-6 (137) (144.0)
21 Feb Cl 3 HCh (159/126.7) 30.5f hv Exe 8/1 11-6 8.5l 1/14 off 129 – 119.3
tracked leader, led 2 out, idled closing stages, stayed on well
The fitting of cheekpieces has made all the difference and he has won 3/4 since they were applied, the latest over 30.5f at Exeter; has been raised 8lbs for that, but still has improvement to come; this is a step up in class though.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 6lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: in form, just the matter if he can deal with the class rise.
Very First Time 8-10-0 (131) *4lbs oh (129.7)
25 Jan Cl4 HCh (43/116.1) 24f gd/sf Donc 5/111-12 6l 1/8 off 120 - 101.7
held up in rear, outpaced before 14th, good headway on outside chased leaders before 2 out, led before last, stayed on strongly, ridden clear.
Change of stable this year has seen him win 3/5, admittedly class 3 & 4; arrives here in good form and although he runs from 4lbs out of the handicap; never faced anything like this class though and as such is purely speculative.
Plus: going (W); distance (F-); form run lto (49 days); down 26lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course; up 15 lbs (OR inc 4lbs ooh); up 3 classes;
Verdict: just a hunch he may run better than expected
Forgetting the Very First Time, which would need a lot of improvement to make the frame, we’re left with three, each of which has a query. The top weight Der Rasher Counter has an awful lot of weight to give the field, and there is a question as to whether
he’ll get the trip. Christmas In April will get the trip alright, it’s just a matter of whether he can against such class. Truckers Legend will get the trip and is no unduly burdened. it’s just that he’s been off a while. Taking all that into consideration I’ll take Truckers Legend to win from Christmas In April just edging out Der Rasher Counter.
Uttoxeter 15.35 Listed Handicap Chase 844 (135.4) 34f hv – 15 Run (14 at best)
Last year – 847 (138) hv – 18 ran
Potters Corner 20/1 9-10-7 (135) by 3l from MS Parfois 8/1 8-11-4 (146)
Prime Venture 20/1 8-10-11 (139) was 18l 4th
Truckers Legend 8-10-10 (141) (160.9)
27 Dec Gr 3 HCh (854/139.4) 30.5 f hv Chep 10/1 10-5 1.75l 2/17 off 139 – 142.9
prominent early, chased leaders, went 2nd from 2 out, stayed on flat, unable to challenge winner
Not at all exposed in the chasing game, wining his 3rd start at Chepstow and then finishing a fine second in the Welsh National there; a rise of 2lbs in the weights not severe.
Plus: class (F+); going (F+); distance (F+); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); 78-day break; up 5lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR); down in class;
Verdict: unexposed over fences ad this looks a great opportunity.
De Rasher Counter 8-11-12 (157) (162.4)
25 Jan Gr 2 Ch (573/) 25.5f Chelt 12/1 11-4 33l 4/6 off 158 –
chased leaders, mistake and lost place 12th, not fluent 13th, effort16th, hit 17th, weakened after 3 out
30 Nov Gr 3 HCh (1424/147.8) 26f gd/sf Newb 12/1 10-10 1.5l 1/24 off 149 – 160.4
chased leaders, went 2nd 16th, led before 4 out, stayed on strongly
Stepped up well in class to win the Ladbrokes Trophy but then found the rise to Cl 2 beyond him; drops down in class today, but not tried beyond26f and even with his jockey claiming 3lbs gives a bunch of weight to the field.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W?); course (W); recent run (49days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: down 2 classes; up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: a lot of weight to give away over a trip he’s never tried before.
Christmas In April 8-10-6 (137) (144.0)
21 Feb Cl 3 HCh (159/126.7) 30.5f hv Exe 8/1 11-6 8.5l 1/14 off 129 – 119.3
tracked leader, led 2 out, idled closing stages, stayed on well
The fitting of cheekpieces has made all the difference and he has won 3/4 since they were applied, the latest over 30.5f at Exeter; has been raised 8lbs for that, but still has improvement to come; this is a step up in class though.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 6lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: in form, just the matter if he can deal with the class rise.
Very First Time 8-10-0 (131) *4lbs oh (129.7)
25 Jan Cl4 HCh (43/116.1) 24f gd/sf Donc 5/111-12 6l 1/8 off 120 - 101.7
held up in rear, outpaced before 14th, good headway on outside chased leaders before 2 out, led before last, stayed on strongly, ridden clear.
Change of stable this year has seen him win 3/5, admittedly class 3 & 4; arrives here in good form and although he runs from 4lbs out of the handicap; never faced anything like this class though and as such is purely speculative.
Plus: going (W); distance (F-); form run lto (49 days); down 26lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course; up 15 lbs (OR inc 4lbs ooh); up 3 classes;
Verdict: just a hunch he may run better than expected
Forgetting the Very First Time, which would need a lot of improvement to make the frame, we’re left with three, each of which has a query. The top weight Der Rasher Counter has an awful lot of weight to give the field, and there is a question as to whether
he’ll get the trip. Christmas In April will get the trip alright, it’s just a matter of whether he can against such class. Truckers Legend will get the trip and is no unduly burdened. it’s just that he’s been off a while. Taking all that into consideration I’ll take Truckers Legend to win from Christmas In April just edging out Der Rasher Counter.