Post by Old Timer on Dec 27, 2019 12:00:42 GMT
That turned out well yesterday, so now attention on the Welsh National, although would have preferred it on a Saturday, which is not a workday out here! Let’s hope the heavy ground doesn’t do for me!
Chepstow 14.50 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 854 (140.5) 30.5f hv – 17 Run
Last year – 854 (141.7) sf – 20 ran
Elegant Escape 3/1 F 6-11-8 (151) by 1.25l from Ramses De Teilee 10/1 6-11-1 (144)
Yala Enki 12/1 8-11-11 (154) was 5.25l 3rd
Elegant Escape 7-11-12 (160) (168.1)
30 Nov Gr 3 HCh (2434/147.8) 26f gd/sf Newb 15/2 11-12 2l 3/24 off 160 – 166.1
held up towards rear, steady headway on outside approaching 3out kept on run-in, went never nearer 3rd close home
Last year’s winner off a 9lbs lower mark before finishing runner-up in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January; however, could only finish 5th in the Gold Cup at the Festival and L/6 in the Betway Bowl at Aintree; following a similar 2-race approach this year, being runner-up in the Charlie Hall on his return at Wetherby and then 3rd to De Rasher Counter in the Ladbroke at Newbury in first-time blinkers; he was runner-up in the race last year, but trying to give 16lbs to DRG may prove to have been an impossible task; runs off the same mark today and only carries 4lbs more physical weight than last year; while he is 8lbs worse off with Yala Enki as a 7yo he is entitled to be still improving and his Ladbroke effort would support that.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (27 days);
Minus:
Verdict: has already proven his ability round here and while he’s off 9lbs higher this year, has likely improved more than that with more to come; a strong contender.
West Approach 9-11-2 (150) (159.7)
12 Dec Gr 3 HCh (338/139.4) 26f sf Chelt 7/2 11-12 2l 3/11 off 150 – 147.7
held up in rear, headway 3 out, driven to chase leaders before next, outpaced between last 2, ridden and stayed on to take 3rd towards finish, no impression with front pair
Won a pair of NCh early in his chasing career, but thereafter struggled a little and put back to hurdles for a spell last season; seems to have done the trick as he won at Cheltenham in mid-November and then 3rd there lto trying to give weight to the field; runs off the same mark today, but carries 10lbs less physical weight.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (14 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: looks to be benefitting from last season’s return to hurdles and a possible contender.
Yala Enki 9-11-7 (155) (159.5)
30 Nov Gr 3 HCh (2434/147.8) 26f gd/sf Newb 25/1 11-7 28l 12/24 off 155
chased leader, led 8th, mistake and headed 15th, lost 2nd next, chased leaders, weakened before 4 out
Exposed chaser who meets Elegant Escape on 8lbs better terms than when 3rd to Tizzard’s young chaser in last year’s renewal when with Venus Williams; moved to the Nicholls’ yard over the summer and underwent a breathing operation; not sure what the plans are, but wonder if they include a serious tilt at this off 155, as that’s 5lbs higher than he’s ever carried to victory and a win here would rather cramp plans for a possible shot at the big prize at Aintree in April; looked in need of the in the Ladbroke and has something to find with Elegant Escape on that running.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (27 days);
Minus:
Verdict: not without a chance if fighting fit, but suspect this is not the main target and thus not the strongest contender.
Potters Corner 9-10-11 (145) (149.5)
16 Mar List HCh (847/138.0) 34f hv Uttox 20/1 10-7 3l 1/19 off 135 – 132.5
chasing leaders 2nd, 3rd 4 out, challenged 3 out, led before last, edged left flat, driven out
Twice a winner over fences last season at Wincanton over Christmas and the Midlands National at Uttoxeter on his final start in March; has had a trio of outings over hurdles this term, winning the latest here at the start of the month; runs off a 10lbs higher mark than when winning at Uttoxeter, but with only 9 chase starts has scope for improvement.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: up in class; up 10lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: would have a chance on Uttoxeter running, so a possible contender.
Arthur’s Gift 8-10-1 (135) (158.3)
13 Nov Cl 2 HCh (163/134.4) 24f hv Bang 5/1 11-4 5l 2/8 off 135 – 131.3
raced wide close up, pushed along 3 out, effort next, kept on one pace
Just half a dozen starts over fences winning a Cl 3 HCh off 130 at Carlisle back in February, although subsequently PU in the Midlands’ National; looked to need his return behind Pop Rockstar (-10) at Carlisle in mid-October, but looked more like it at Bangor a month later when runner-up to Graceful Legend in the Duchess of Westminster Chase; runs off the same mark today, but this a much tougher ask and has to prove he can compete at this level.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto (44 days); down 17lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up in class; up in trip;
Verdict: looks to be an improving chaser, but this a tough ask for one so inexperienced over fences and not a strong contender.
Change of going to hv since I started, which should be borne in mind. It certainly enters my reasoning in passing on How Mcginty whose record has but a single win in 7 NCh starts. Admittedly it was here, but only over 23.5f on gd/sf, so this looks a tremendous ask for his HCh debut. Truckers Lodge did win here on hv ground, but that was a modest hurdle over 23.5 f last season; he did win an 8-horse 23.5f chase here on gd/sf lto, but that was a Cl 3 mdn on his third outing over fences – hardly a thorough prep for today one would think! Prime Venture, meanwhile, is looking for his first win of any sort over fences and despite running well at Uttoxeter and Sandown in the spring, it would seem unlikely he’ll claim his first chase win in the Welsh National.
I also think Arthurs Gift is one that can be dropped from my shortlist, which leaves me with four to consider. It’s normally better to seek those with 11-0 or less when the ground is heavy here, but I have a feeling that last year’s winner Elegant Escape may be better than your average handicapper and expect to see him at least make the frame. Of the others, the chances of stable companion West Approach may have been better on less demanding going, and thus in the belief that this might come too soon for Yala Enki, think Potters Corner might also enjoy the conditions. So I’m going for Elegant Escape from Potters Corner with Yala Enki and West Approach scrapping for the minor places.
Kempton 15.05 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 313 (138.6) 24f sf – 12 Run (11 at best)
Last year – 313 (137.2) g=d.sf – 8 ran
Adrien Du Pont 9/2 6-11-12 (144) by 3.5l from Just A Sting 100/30 6-11-5 (137)
Sadly, no time to look at this in depth, but the one thing that struck me was the number of entries stepping up in trip. My initial shortlist would include last year’s runner-up Just A Sting, Belami Des Pictons having a rare second run in a season, Quarenta and Sametegal. Prices don’t look exciting but Just A Sting may go one better this year.
Chepstow 14.50 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 854 (140.5) 30.5f hv – 17 Run
Last year – 854 (141.7) sf – 20 ran
Elegant Escape 3/1 F 6-11-8 (151) by 1.25l from Ramses De Teilee 10/1 6-11-1 (144)
Yala Enki 12/1 8-11-11 (154) was 5.25l 3rd
Elegant Escape 7-11-12 (160) (168.1)
30 Nov Gr 3 HCh (2434/147.8) 26f gd/sf Newb 15/2 11-12 2l 3/24 off 160 – 166.1
held up towards rear, steady headway on outside approaching 3out kept on run-in, went never nearer 3rd close home
Last year’s winner off a 9lbs lower mark before finishing runner-up in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January; however, could only finish 5th in the Gold Cup at the Festival and L/6 in the Betway Bowl at Aintree; following a similar 2-race approach this year, being runner-up in the Charlie Hall on his return at Wetherby and then 3rd to De Rasher Counter in the Ladbroke at Newbury in first-time blinkers; he was runner-up in the race last year, but trying to give 16lbs to DRG may prove to have been an impossible task; runs off the same mark today and only carries 4lbs more physical weight than last year; while he is 8lbs worse off with Yala Enki as a 7yo he is entitled to be still improving and his Ladbroke effort would support that.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (27 days);
Minus:
Verdict: has already proven his ability round here and while he’s off 9lbs higher this year, has likely improved more than that with more to come; a strong contender.
West Approach 9-11-2 (150) (159.7)
12 Dec Gr 3 HCh (338/139.4) 26f sf Chelt 7/2 11-12 2l 3/11 off 150 – 147.7
held up in rear, headway 3 out, driven to chase leaders before next, outpaced between last 2, ridden and stayed on to take 3rd towards finish, no impression with front pair
Won a pair of NCh early in his chasing career, but thereafter struggled a little and put back to hurdles for a spell last season; seems to have done the trick as he won at Cheltenham in mid-November and then 3rd there lto trying to give weight to the field; runs off the same mark today, but carries 10lbs less physical weight.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (14 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: looks to be benefitting from last season’s return to hurdles and a possible contender.
Yala Enki 9-11-7 (155) (159.5)
30 Nov Gr 3 HCh (2434/147.8) 26f gd/sf Newb 25/1 11-7 28l 12/24 off 155
chased leader, led 8th, mistake and headed 15th, lost 2nd next, chased leaders, weakened before 4 out
Exposed chaser who meets Elegant Escape on 8lbs better terms than when 3rd to Tizzard’s young chaser in last year’s renewal when with Venus Williams; moved to the Nicholls’ yard over the summer and underwent a breathing operation; not sure what the plans are, but wonder if they include a serious tilt at this off 155, as that’s 5lbs higher than he’s ever carried to victory and a win here would rather cramp plans for a possible shot at the big prize at Aintree in April; looked in need of the in the Ladbroke and has something to find with Elegant Escape on that running.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (27 days);
Minus:
Verdict: not without a chance if fighting fit, but suspect this is not the main target and thus not the strongest contender.
Potters Corner 9-10-11 (145) (149.5)
16 Mar List HCh (847/138.0) 34f hv Uttox 20/1 10-7 3l 1/19 off 135 – 132.5
chasing leaders 2nd, 3rd 4 out, challenged 3 out, led before last, edged left flat, driven out
Twice a winner over fences last season at Wincanton over Christmas and the Midlands National at Uttoxeter on his final start in March; has had a trio of outings over hurdles this term, winning the latest here at the start of the month; runs off a 10lbs higher mark than when winning at Uttoxeter, but with only 9 chase starts has scope for improvement.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: up in class; up 10lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: would have a chance on Uttoxeter running, so a possible contender.
Arthur’s Gift 8-10-1 (135) (158.3)
13 Nov Cl 2 HCh (163/134.4) 24f hv Bang 5/1 11-4 5l 2/8 off 135 – 131.3
raced wide close up, pushed along 3 out, effort next, kept on one pace
Just half a dozen starts over fences winning a Cl 3 HCh off 130 at Carlisle back in February, although subsequently PU in the Midlands’ National; looked to need his return behind Pop Rockstar (-10) at Carlisle in mid-October, but looked more like it at Bangor a month later when runner-up to Graceful Legend in the Duchess of Westminster Chase; runs off the same mark today, but this a much tougher ask and has to prove he can compete at this level.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto (44 days); down 17lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up in class; up in trip;
Verdict: looks to be an improving chaser, but this a tough ask for one so inexperienced over fences and not a strong contender.
Change of going to hv since I started, which should be borne in mind. It certainly enters my reasoning in passing on How Mcginty whose record has but a single win in 7 NCh starts. Admittedly it was here, but only over 23.5f on gd/sf, so this looks a tremendous ask for his HCh debut. Truckers Lodge did win here on hv ground, but that was a modest hurdle over 23.5 f last season; he did win an 8-horse 23.5f chase here on gd/sf lto, but that was a Cl 3 mdn on his third outing over fences – hardly a thorough prep for today one would think! Prime Venture, meanwhile, is looking for his first win of any sort over fences and despite running well at Uttoxeter and Sandown in the spring, it would seem unlikely he’ll claim his first chase win in the Welsh National.
I also think Arthurs Gift is one that can be dropped from my shortlist, which leaves me with four to consider. It’s normally better to seek those with 11-0 or less when the ground is heavy here, but I have a feeling that last year’s winner Elegant Escape may be better than your average handicapper and expect to see him at least make the frame. Of the others, the chances of stable companion West Approach may have been better on less demanding going, and thus in the belief that this might come too soon for Yala Enki, think Potters Corner might also enjoy the conditions. So I’m going for Elegant Escape from Potters Corner with Yala Enki and West Approach scrapping for the minor places.
Kempton 15.05 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 313 (138.6) 24f sf – 12 Run (11 at best)
Last year – 313 (137.2) g=d.sf – 8 ran
Adrien Du Pont 9/2 6-11-12 (144) by 3.5l from Just A Sting 100/30 6-11-5 (137)
Sadly, no time to look at this in depth, but the one thing that struck me was the number of entries stepping up in trip. My initial shortlist would include last year’s runner-up Just A Sting, Belami Des Pictons having a rare second run in a season, Quarenta and Sametegal. Prices don’t look exciting but Just A Sting may go one better this year.