Post by Old Timer on Dec 26, 2019 11:40:01 GMT
Saturday was not one of my better days, so a cautious look at the Boxing Day card when really only one race looks worth the effort – the Pertemps Hurdle qualifier at Wincanton features a pair of short-price contenders and thus is of no interest for me. So let’s see how my luck pans out at Wetherby.
Wetherby 14.10 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 356 (142.8) 24f sf – 10 Run
Last year –256 (141.4) gd/sf – 8 ran
Lake View Lad 5/1 8-11-10 (147) by 4l from Captain Chaos 7/2 F 7-10-10 (133)
Wakanda 11/2 9-11-10 (147) was 11.2l 4th
Lake View Lad 9-11-12 (155) (159.4)
30 Nov List HCh (401/142.0) 23.5f hv Nwcs 9/2 11-12 23l 5/9 off 156 -
held up in touch on outside, outpaced after 5 out, ridden after next, never on terms, weakened 2 out
Winner of last year’s renewal off an 8lbs lighter mark before going on to finishing 3rd in the Ultima at the Cheltenham festival off today’s mark; was never really in it in the National and looked to be in need of the run on his return at Newcastle at the end of last month where he finished behind Top Ville Ben (-5) and Jonniesofa (-14); knows what’s needed round here and can’t be ignored despite the weight.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (26 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: Off a higher mark than last year, but still likely to be thereabouts and a contender.
Top Ville Ben 7-11-11 (154) (152.7)
30 Nov List HCh (401/142.0) 23.5f hv Nwcs 11/2 11-7 0.85l 3/9 off 151 – 149.7
led, clear 3 out, ridden between last 2, tired and reduced advantage flat, headed near finish
Twice a C&D winner as a novice last season and ended the year by finishing 3/6 in a Gr 1 NCh at Aintree; needed his return in the Charlie Hall over C&D here in early November, but showed improvement for the run at Newcastle at month’s end when 3rd to Takingrisks and 5l ahead of Jonniesofa (-9) with Lake View Lad (+5) a further 17l back in 5th; one would expect him to confirm that running with Jonniesofa on today’s terms, although Lake View Lad can be expected to come on for the run.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (26 days);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: improving young chaser that ticks a lot of boxes, a contender.
Jonniesofa 9-10-13 (142) (152.4)
30 Nov List NHc (401/142.0) 23.5f hv Nwcs11/4 F 10-12 6l 4/9 off 142 – 137.4
tracked leader, ridden after 4 out, one pace and no impression next, lost 2nd last, kept on flat, no extra closing stage
A Gr 2 NHd winner back in 2016, has not been seen much since; in fact, has been off 22 months when winning at Ayr on his HCh debut at the start of November; raised 9lbs and upped to listed company be could only finish 4th over 23.5 in the Newcastle mud at the end of the month; runs off the same mark today. but will need to bounce back in this higher class.
Plus: going (W); distance (F): form run lto (26 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 1lb (wt); up in class;
Verdict: lightly raced for age and a possible contender.
Bennys King 8-11-2 (145) (137.2)
30 Nov Cl 2 HCh (250/134.0) 22f gd/sf Newb 10/1 11-1 6l 1/16 off 134 – 125.2
tracked leaders, went 2nd at 7th (water), led before 13th, made rest, hit 4 out, clear last, driven and stayed on strongly
Won 3 of his 5 chase starts on gd/sf to hv, although has yet to tackle a trip this far; raised 11lbs for latest win at Newbury at the end of November where he stayed on strongly, but this is tougher opposition plus 2f further.
Plus: going (W); form run lto (26 days);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 11lbs (OR); up 1lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: looks to be a rapidly improving chaser who has done all that’s been asked to date, but this a very much tougher task than he’s faced to date and maybe not the strongest contender.
Just a single 10yo winner in the past 11 renewals, all the others being 7 or 8yo, and a similarly predominant 10/11 had won 1 to 3 chase starts. Other plus points to note are 7 or more chase runs overall, of which preferably at least one at Wetherby, and at least 2 in the current season.
Of those that don’t make the shortlist, I think the time has passed for Wakanda, just denied off 144 by Get On The Yager in 2017 and then 4th to Lake View Lad off 147 last year. Although he won off 146 at Haydock in January, he runs off 149 this time on his seasonal return, a mark he only bettered at Ascot back in December 2016. I have a different problem with Guitar Pete as in 24 chase starts he has yet to show form beyond 22f. Rocco and Didero Vallis are others with a similar question to answer.
Of the quartet on my shortlist, Jonniesofa as a 9yo with only 4 chase starts, and just 11 overall, looks a little inexperienced and I can’t see him reversing Newcastle running with Top Ville Ben. Bennys King, meanwhile, is another stepping up in trip and impressive as he was in winning at Newbury, this is tougher opposition he faces and off an 11lbs higher mark, so not for me. Going back to the Newcastle race, Top Ville Ben was obviously the one to take out of it and while last year’s winner Lake View Lad will have come on for the run, he may well have to play second fiddle today. Incidentally, Henry Brooke has ridden the winner in each of the last three renewals, for a different trainer on each occasion. This year he has decided to stay pat with Lake View Lad. So I’m going for Top Ville Ben to beat Lake View Lad with Bennys King, Rocco and Didero Vallis battling out for the minor places if they stay the trip,
Wetherby 14.10 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 356 (142.8) 24f sf – 10 Run
Last year –256 (141.4) gd/sf – 8 ran
Lake View Lad 5/1 8-11-10 (147) by 4l from Captain Chaos 7/2 F 7-10-10 (133)
Wakanda 11/2 9-11-10 (147) was 11.2l 4th
Lake View Lad 9-11-12 (155) (159.4)
30 Nov List HCh (401/142.0) 23.5f hv Nwcs 9/2 11-12 23l 5/9 off 156 -
held up in touch on outside, outpaced after 5 out, ridden after next, never on terms, weakened 2 out
Winner of last year’s renewal off an 8lbs lighter mark before going on to finishing 3rd in the Ultima at the Cheltenham festival off today’s mark; was never really in it in the National and looked to be in need of the run on his return at Newcastle at the end of last month where he finished behind Top Ville Ben (-5) and Jonniesofa (-14); knows what’s needed round here and can’t be ignored despite the weight.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (26 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: Off a higher mark than last year, but still likely to be thereabouts and a contender.
Top Ville Ben 7-11-11 (154) (152.7)
30 Nov List HCh (401/142.0) 23.5f hv Nwcs 11/2 11-7 0.85l 3/9 off 151 – 149.7
led, clear 3 out, ridden between last 2, tired and reduced advantage flat, headed near finish
Twice a C&D winner as a novice last season and ended the year by finishing 3/6 in a Gr 1 NCh at Aintree; needed his return in the Charlie Hall over C&D here in early November, but showed improvement for the run at Newcastle at month’s end when 3rd to Takingrisks and 5l ahead of Jonniesofa (-9) with Lake View Lad (+5) a further 17l back in 5th; one would expect him to confirm that running with Jonniesofa on today’s terms, although Lake View Lad can be expected to come on for the run.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (26 days);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: improving young chaser that ticks a lot of boxes, a contender.
Jonniesofa 9-10-13 (142) (152.4)
30 Nov List NHc (401/142.0) 23.5f hv Nwcs11/4 F 10-12 6l 4/9 off 142 – 137.4
tracked leader, ridden after 4 out, one pace and no impression next, lost 2nd last, kept on flat, no extra closing stage
A Gr 2 NHd winner back in 2016, has not been seen much since; in fact, has been off 22 months when winning at Ayr on his HCh debut at the start of November; raised 9lbs and upped to listed company be could only finish 4th over 23.5 in the Newcastle mud at the end of the month; runs off the same mark today. but will need to bounce back in this higher class.
Plus: going (W); distance (F): form run lto (26 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 1lb (wt); up in class;
Verdict: lightly raced for age and a possible contender.
Bennys King 8-11-2 (145) (137.2)
30 Nov Cl 2 HCh (250/134.0) 22f gd/sf Newb 10/1 11-1 6l 1/16 off 134 – 125.2
tracked leaders, went 2nd at 7th (water), led before 13th, made rest, hit 4 out, clear last, driven and stayed on strongly
Won 3 of his 5 chase starts on gd/sf to hv, although has yet to tackle a trip this far; raised 11lbs for latest win at Newbury at the end of November where he stayed on strongly, but this is tougher opposition plus 2f further.
Plus: going (W); form run lto (26 days);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 11lbs (OR); up 1lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: looks to be a rapidly improving chaser who has done all that’s been asked to date, but this a very much tougher task than he’s faced to date and maybe not the strongest contender.
Just a single 10yo winner in the past 11 renewals, all the others being 7 or 8yo, and a similarly predominant 10/11 had won 1 to 3 chase starts. Other plus points to note are 7 or more chase runs overall, of which preferably at least one at Wetherby, and at least 2 in the current season.
Of those that don’t make the shortlist, I think the time has passed for Wakanda, just denied off 144 by Get On The Yager in 2017 and then 4th to Lake View Lad off 147 last year. Although he won off 146 at Haydock in January, he runs off 149 this time on his seasonal return, a mark he only bettered at Ascot back in December 2016. I have a different problem with Guitar Pete as in 24 chase starts he has yet to show form beyond 22f. Rocco and Didero Vallis are others with a similar question to answer.
Of the quartet on my shortlist, Jonniesofa as a 9yo with only 4 chase starts, and just 11 overall, looks a little inexperienced and I can’t see him reversing Newcastle running with Top Ville Ben. Bennys King, meanwhile, is another stepping up in trip and impressive as he was in winning at Newbury, this is tougher opposition he faces and off an 11lbs higher mark, so not for me. Going back to the Newcastle race, Top Ville Ben was obviously the one to take out of it and while last year’s winner Lake View Lad will have come on for the run, he may well have to play second fiddle today. Incidentally, Henry Brooke has ridden the winner in each of the last three renewals, for a different trainer on each occasion. This year he has decided to stay pat with Lake View Lad. So I’m going for Top Ville Ben to beat Lake View Lad with Bennys King, Rocco and Didero Vallis battling out for the minor places if they stay the trip,