Post by Old Timer on Oct 26, 2019 10:43:17 GMT
Done by the change in the ground yesterday – not to mention the shape of the forecast – as my data from Thursday night was based on gd/sf and thus had an entirely different complexion. Such things happen when access is restricted. Luckily, I did download some Cheltenham today for in case Doncaster got abandoned, which was the case. However, time precluded any look at the first chase, which would have been my main target. Just thankful I’ve got something to look at and fingers crossed that I can end October with a smile,
Cheltenham 15.10 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 371 (140.9) 16f sf – 11 Run
Last year – 371 (140.4) gd – 7 ran
Modus 4/1 8-11-9 (146) by 0.1l from Duke Of Navan 20/1 10-11-4 (144)
Mcgroarty 8-11-9 (152) (158.6)
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (250/146.5) 17f sf Kelso 9/2 11-0 1l 1/6 off 148 – 153.6
led until 8th, led 4 out, all out
Has been in the form of his life over the summer completing his hat-trick at Kelso at the start of the month coming back from a more than 2-month break, raised 4lbs for that and carries 9lbs more physical weight, although has carried more during present streak.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 9lbs (wt);
Verdict: rapidly improving sort and has to be considered a contender on present form.
Brelan D’As 8-10-9 (138) (153.8)
04 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (505/138.0) 16f sf Aint 6/1 10-9 26l 5/13 off 138
held up in rear, hampered 1st, some headway 6th, outpaced after 4 out, tried to close after 2 out, no impression and well held 5th when jumped badly right last
15 Mar Gr 3 Hcap Chase (619/143.5) 16.5f gd/sf Chelt 8/1 10-9 4l 3/19 off 136 – 134.8
tracked leaders, took keen hold, 2nd when not fluent 3 out, 3rd after 2 out, kept on but held by leading pair flat
Winning hurdler who has proven better over fences winning novice events at Haydock and Fakenham plus putting in a career best when 3rd in the Grand Annual here; did not produce that sort of form at Aintree, however; distance would look to suit and having won on hv should handle the ground, plus has shown he can handle the track; this an easier task for his season return.
Plus: class (F+); distance (W); course (F); down in class;
Minus: going; 205-day break;
Verdict: likely to show improvement over fences this season and a possible contender, though may need the run.
Saint Calvados 6-11-12 (155) (148.3+)
13 Mar Gr 1 Chase (2251/) 16f sf Chelt 25/1 11-10 24l 7/9 off 156
jumped right at times, led, headed after 3 out, weakened approaching last
Has won on his return the past 3 seasons, last year in a Gr 3 chase at Naas; highly tried after that and certainly tilting at rainbows when 7/9 in the Champion Chase here sporting first-time cheek-pieces; been dropped 1lb, although carries 2lbs more physical weight; however, I see nothing of the class of Altior in this field; low rating dates back to last hcap appearance January 2018 and would surely rate higher by now; cheek-pieces gone but noted that this first start since a wind operation, which generally improves them.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); down in class; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: generally arrives fit for battle and has to be considered a contender dropped back to hcap ranks.
Just the 4 previous renewals, which were won by young chasers making their seasonal return. So while you could make a case for some of the more proven chasers in the field. I’ve restricted it to the above trio, to which you could possibly add Marracudja. For once, I can’t oppose the current market picks and would go for Saint Calvados from Brelan D’As representing last year’s winning combination, with Mcgroarty having to settle for the minor placing as his winning streak comes to an end.
Cheltenham 15.45 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 155 (136.6) 24f sf – 13 Run (11 at best)
Last year – 255 (130.8) gd/sf – 20 ran
The Mighty Don 16/1 6-11-7 (135) by 0.05l from Sykes 22/1 9-11-11 (139)
Theclockisticking 11/2 F 6-11-10 (138) was 4.3l 4th
Gunfleet 7-10-10 (133) (142.5)
07 Oct Cl 3 HHD (61/129.0) 22f gd/sf Strat 5/2 F 11-10 4/8 6.25l off 134 – 124.5
mid-division, headway on outside 5th, outpaced before last bend, no impression after, stayed on flat
Twice a winner over hurdles, was narrowly beaten in a 24f chase at Exeter on his return last season, but after being PU on his third chase outing at Wincanton in January was returned to hurdling; however, looked a little out of his depth in a Gr 3 at Aintree in April; dropped all the way back to a Cl 3 for his return at Stratford earlier this month, but looked to need a more demanding trip in finishing 4/8; Neverbeen To Paris (-10) was 5.5l ahead in 2nd; today’s trip should suit better, at least that’s what the market thinks and he is 4lbs better off with NTP.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (19 days); down 1lb (OR); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: should be better suited by this trip and plenty of market confidence suggests he’s a contender.
Tobefair 9-11-12 (149) (141.4)
17 Apr Cl 2 HHD (124/134.0) 24f gd Chelt 15/2 11-10 5l 1/13 off 142 – 139.4
held up in rear, headway on outside before 2 out, went 2nd off last bend and raced against stands rail, edged left and led flat, driven clear
More than useful hurdler and was runner-up in the final of this at the Festival last March; however, that was off 136 and although raised 6lbs, he won over C&D the following month to end his season in triumph; the problem is that he’s now been raised a further 7lbs to start this season, which is nosebleed area for a hurdler; nevertheless, he’s a consistent type over hurdles and is proven over C&D.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto;
Minus: 192-day break; up 7lbs (OR); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: genuine hurdler and not entirely dismissed despite the weight, a contender.
Aye Right 6-11-4 (141) (140.2)
18 Sep Cl 2 HHd (117/130.8) 21f gd Kelso 6/4 11-12 1l 1/4 off 136 – 130.2
made all, driven after 2 out, ridden before last, ran on well
Promising over hurdles last season winning 4 of 8 starts at up to 24,5f on a range of going; carried on where he left off by making all over 21f at Kelso on his return last month; has proven dominant on the northern circuit but now he joins a higher league, though was not disgraced when 6/14 over 21f here last November.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (38 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: promising young hurdler who needs considering as a contender
With the withdrawal of Theclockisticking I’m a bit lost for contenders as I can’t really go for last year’s runner-up Sykes, as he runs off an 8lbs higher mark and he is now a 10yo. I see there is some money too for Burrows Park, but Cheltenham has never been a happy hunting ground for Venus, plus the stable’s been quiet to date, so I’ll look elsewhere. I’m passing on Neverbeen To Paris as I think this trip on sf ground is a bit too much of an ask for a 4yo. Two Taffs (now N/R) and Potters Legend are coming back having missed last season, so not for my consideration as yet. Captain Tommy and Sunset Showdown, meanwhile, are making hcap debuts, although the latter comes from a stable that does well with hurdlers and also showed a profit here with them last season.
So all in all, I’m just down to a trio, but with the going softening and further rain expected I’ll change my initial thoughts and go with Aye Right from Gunfleet and Tobefair.
Cheltenham 15.10 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 371 (140.9) 16f sf – 11 Run
Last year – 371 (140.4) gd – 7 ran
Modus 4/1 8-11-9 (146) by 0.1l from Duke Of Navan 20/1 10-11-4 (144)
Mcgroarty 8-11-9 (152) (158.6)
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (250/146.5) 17f sf Kelso 9/2 11-0 1l 1/6 off 148 – 153.6
led until 8th, led 4 out, all out
Has been in the form of his life over the summer completing his hat-trick at Kelso at the start of the month coming back from a more than 2-month break, raised 4lbs for that and carries 9lbs more physical weight, although has carried more during present streak.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 9lbs (wt);
Verdict: rapidly improving sort and has to be considered a contender on present form.
Brelan D’As 8-10-9 (138) (153.8)
04 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (505/138.0) 16f sf Aint 6/1 10-9 26l 5/13 off 138
held up in rear, hampered 1st, some headway 6th, outpaced after 4 out, tried to close after 2 out, no impression and well held 5th when jumped badly right last
15 Mar Gr 3 Hcap Chase (619/143.5) 16.5f gd/sf Chelt 8/1 10-9 4l 3/19 off 136 – 134.8
tracked leaders, took keen hold, 2nd when not fluent 3 out, 3rd after 2 out, kept on but held by leading pair flat
Winning hurdler who has proven better over fences winning novice events at Haydock and Fakenham plus putting in a career best when 3rd in the Grand Annual here; did not produce that sort of form at Aintree, however; distance would look to suit and having won on hv should handle the ground, plus has shown he can handle the track; this an easier task for his season return.
Plus: class (F+); distance (W); course (F); down in class;
Minus: going; 205-day break;
Verdict: likely to show improvement over fences this season and a possible contender, though may need the run.
Saint Calvados 6-11-12 (155) (148.3+)
13 Mar Gr 1 Chase (2251/) 16f sf Chelt 25/1 11-10 24l 7/9 off 156
jumped right at times, led, headed after 3 out, weakened approaching last
Has won on his return the past 3 seasons, last year in a Gr 3 chase at Naas; highly tried after that and certainly tilting at rainbows when 7/9 in the Champion Chase here sporting first-time cheek-pieces; been dropped 1lb, although carries 2lbs more physical weight; however, I see nothing of the class of Altior in this field; low rating dates back to last hcap appearance January 2018 and would surely rate higher by now; cheek-pieces gone but noted that this first start since a wind operation, which generally improves them.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); down in class; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: generally arrives fit for battle and has to be considered a contender dropped back to hcap ranks.
Just the 4 previous renewals, which were won by young chasers making their seasonal return. So while you could make a case for some of the more proven chasers in the field. I’ve restricted it to the above trio, to which you could possibly add Marracudja. For once, I can’t oppose the current market picks and would go for Saint Calvados from Brelan D’As representing last year’s winning combination, with Mcgroarty having to settle for the minor placing as his winning streak comes to an end.
Cheltenham 15.45 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 155 (136.6) 24f sf – 13 Run (11 at best)
Last year – 255 (130.8) gd/sf – 20 ran
The Mighty Don 16/1 6-11-7 (135) by 0.05l from Sykes 22/1 9-11-11 (139)
Theclockisticking 11/2 F 6-11-10 (138) was 4.3l 4th
Gunfleet 7-10-10 (133) (142.5)
07 Oct Cl 3 HHD (61/129.0) 22f gd/sf Strat 5/2 F 11-10 4/8 6.25l off 134 – 124.5
mid-division, headway on outside 5th, outpaced before last bend, no impression after, stayed on flat
Twice a winner over hurdles, was narrowly beaten in a 24f chase at Exeter on his return last season, but after being PU on his third chase outing at Wincanton in January was returned to hurdling; however, looked a little out of his depth in a Gr 3 at Aintree in April; dropped all the way back to a Cl 3 for his return at Stratford earlier this month, but looked to need a more demanding trip in finishing 4/8; Neverbeen To Paris (-10) was 5.5l ahead in 2nd; today’s trip should suit better, at least that’s what the market thinks and he is 4lbs better off with NTP.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (19 days); down 1lb (OR); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: should be better suited by this trip and plenty of market confidence suggests he’s a contender.
Tobefair 9-11-12 (149) (141.4)
17 Apr Cl 2 HHD (124/134.0) 24f gd Chelt 15/2 11-10 5l 1/13 off 142 – 139.4
held up in rear, headway on outside before 2 out, went 2nd off last bend and raced against stands rail, edged left and led flat, driven clear
More than useful hurdler and was runner-up in the final of this at the Festival last March; however, that was off 136 and although raised 6lbs, he won over C&D the following month to end his season in triumph; the problem is that he’s now been raised a further 7lbs to start this season, which is nosebleed area for a hurdler; nevertheless, he’s a consistent type over hurdles and is proven over C&D.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto;
Minus: 192-day break; up 7lbs (OR); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: genuine hurdler and not entirely dismissed despite the weight, a contender.
Aye Right 6-11-4 (141) (140.2)
18 Sep Cl 2 HHd (117/130.8) 21f gd Kelso 6/4 11-12 1l 1/4 off 136 – 130.2
made all, driven after 2 out, ridden before last, ran on well
Promising over hurdles last season winning 4 of 8 starts at up to 24,5f on a range of going; carried on where he left off by making all over 21f at Kelso on his return last month; has proven dominant on the northern circuit but now he joins a higher league, though was not disgraced when 6/14 over 21f here last November.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (38 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: promising young hurdler who needs considering as a contender
With the withdrawal of Theclockisticking I’m a bit lost for contenders as I can’t really go for last year’s runner-up Sykes, as he runs off an 8lbs higher mark and he is now a 10yo. I see there is some money too for Burrows Park, but Cheltenham has never been a happy hunting ground for Venus, plus the stable’s been quiet to date, so I’ll look elsewhere. I’m passing on Neverbeen To Paris as I think this trip on sf ground is a bit too much of an ask for a 4yo. Two Taffs (now N/R) and Potters Legend are coming back having missed last season, so not for my consideration as yet. Captain Tommy and Sunset Showdown, meanwhile, are making hcap debuts, although the latter comes from a stable that does well with hurdlers and also showed a profit here with them last season.
So all in all, I’m just down to a trio, but with the going softening and further rain expected I’ll change my initial thoughts and go with Aye Right from Gunfleet and Tobefair.