Post by Old Timer on Sept 21, 2019 11:01:24 GMT
This dry run continues and could well be extended today as we have yet another sprint to look at. Let’s hope my luck changes!
Ayr 14.00 Cl 2 Hcap 187 (91.2) 8f gd – 12 Run (10 at best)
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 187 (92.9) hv – 12 ran
Waarif 12/1 5-9-3 (95) Dr 3 by 1l from Fire Brigade 4/1 F 4-9-6 (95) Dr 13
Gulf Of Poets 33/1 6-9-10 (99) Dr 7 was 6.85l 9th
Kynren 5-9-12 (101) Dr 3 (102.9)
22 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (529/97.8) 8f gd York 7/2 F 9-4 2.4l 3/18 off 101 – 102.1
in touch, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong
Not won since 2017, but has put in some consistent performances over 7/8f this last 2 years.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (30 days);
Minus: course (?); up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: in form and surely a contender.
Irreverent 3-8-11 (90) Dr 11 (80.2)
07 Sep Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (124/83.0) 8f gd Thir 8/11 F 9-0 1.5l 1/4 off 87 – 78.8
tracked leaders, went 2nd over 3f out, led over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well
Won over 7f here in early June and after lesser efforts against older horses, returned to winning ways in a 4-horse 3yo affair at Thirsk a fortnight ago; trainer thinks he has much more to give and has fitted cheekpieces for the first time today.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (14 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: yet to prove himself against older horses, but trainer considers him a contender.
Waarif 6-9-6 (95) Dr 9 (97.2)
12 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (156/95.7) 10f gd/fm Donc 11/1 9-10 2.5l 4/7 off 95 – 95.7
tracked winner, challenged 4f out, ridden over 1f out, soon one pace, driven and no impression inside final furlong
Runs off the same mark as when taking last year’s renewal, although will carry 3lbs more physical weight; jockey won over this trip at Windsor at the end of June, and dropping back from 10f at Doncaster lto.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (9 days); down 4lbs (wt); back in trip;
Minus:
Verdict: can’t be ignored and a definite contender.
Rush through this and I’d have to go for Kynren to gain that deserved victory from last year’s winner Waarif with Irreverent the danger.
Ayr 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap 1245 (100.0) 6f gd – 25 Run (24 at best)
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 1245 (100.5) hv – 25 ran
Son Of Rest 5/1 F 4-9-3 (101) Dr 17 dht Baron Bolt 28/1 5-8-12 (101) Dr 21
Summerghand 20/1 4-9-2 (100) Dr 11 was 9.65l 11th
George Bowen 20/1 6-9-4 (107) Dr 5 was 10.9l 12th
Gunmetal 14/1 5-9-6 (104) Dr 15 was 12.4l 14th
Staxton 25/1 3-9-1 (101) Dr 8 was 16.15l 16th
Major Jumbo 14/1 4-9-0 (103) Dr 9 was 17.92l 20th
Growl 8/1 6-9-1 (99) Dr 13 was 18.92l 21st
Justanotherbottle 33/1 4-9-2 (105) Dr 25 was 19.92l 22nd
Major Jumbo 5-9-8 (108) Dr 20 (100.6)
07 Sep Gr 1 Stks (1701/) 6f sf Hayd 25/1 9-3 4.75l 7/11 off 108
tracked leaders, pushed along over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong
Listed winner at Chester on penultimate start in early August and a little out of his depth at Haydock lto, although has acquitted himself fairly well at grade level this season; last hcap run was when taking the Coral Sprint at York last October and he’s still 6lbs above his mark that day (had previously run down the field in last year’s renewal here); still looks as if he may have improved again this year so not totally dismissed.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); recent outing (14 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 5lbs;
Verdict: difficult to know here he’s at, but Chester win suggests he could be a contender off this mark.
Buffer Zone 4-9-4 (104) Dr 21 (87.4)
09 Sept Hcap (780/88.4) 6f gd Curragh 11/2 Jt F 9-6 1.75l 1/24 off 99 – 87.4
raced far side group, prominent, 5th halfway, soon closed travelling smoothly, led under 2f out and ridden, stayed on well inside final furlong
Won as a 2yo and a 3yo when with Charlton, but looks to have stepped up a notch since joining the Ger Lyons yard, winning over 6f at the Curragh on his debut in June and again last Sunday where he had Gulliver (-2) 1.8l back in 3rd; carries a 4lbs penalty for that, though is down 2lbs in the actual weight to be carried; difficult to equate the form to this side of the Irish Sea, but has been well supported during the week; however, this is a not a race where favourites have historically done well.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (6 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course; 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: obviously an improving sprinter, but hard to justify such strong support and maybe not the strongest of contenders.
Summerghand 5-9-2 (102) Dr 13 (95.0)
17 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.0) 6f sf Rip 15/2 9-8 2.25l 2/17 off 100 – 90.4
held up behind far side, headway 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on to lead that side group inside final furlong, no impression with winner
Won twice at 3yo and 5 times as a 4yo, but while he has yet to break his duck for this season, 5th in the Wokingham, 4th in the Steward’s Cup and runner-up in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon show that he is at least deserving of a major pot; raised 2lbs for his latest effort, which puts him 2lbs above his mark for last year’s renewal, nevertheless, the Great St. Wilfrid has often been a sound pointer.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (35 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: yet another who meets most of the criteria you’d want from a strong contender.
Arecibo 4-8-12 (98) Dr 17 (94.7)
14 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (374/97.2) 6f gd/fm Donc 33/1 9-4 1l 4/22 off 100 – 94.7
chased leader, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, not quicken towards finish
Has had a promising first season with O’Meara, winning a Cl 3 over 5f on fast ground here back in early July and has threatened to add to that tally since, most noticeably when 3rd to Dakota Gold over the extended 5f at York in the third week of August and again last weekend when a close 4/22 to Oxted in the Portland; runs off a 2lbs lower mark today and looks to be well enough drawn from an upper middle stall.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (7 days); down 2lbs (OR); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: The Portland has not traditionally been a great trial for this, but nevertheless a contender.
Gulliver 5-8-12 (98) Dr 12 (88.8)
09 Sept Hcap (780/88.4) 6f gd Curragh 8/1 9-4 1.8l 3/24 off 97 – 80.9
waited with, raced far side group, 19th halfway, pushed along and headway from 2f out, bumped with rival 1 1/2f out, stayed on strongly inside final furlong, just failed for 2nd
Won first 2 starts as a 3yo when with Palmer, largely being raced on the AW and it’s taken a little time to get into his stride since moving to O’Meara towards the end of last season; finally got off the mark for his new connections at the 11th attempt when winning over 6f at York towards the end of June and after 4 further disappointing runs, stayed on strongly to finish 3rd to Buffer Zone (+2) at the Curragh last Sunday; runs off 1lb higher mark here, but meets BZ on 4lbs better terms for just under 2l, which doesn’t really look enough to turn the tables.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (6 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: could be improving, but has not shown for as yet that suggests he is of the level to win a race of this level and this not the strongest contender.
Yet another of these seemingly impossible sprint to try and solve, although one of the older ones with plenty of past trends to look at. They’re all male horses, which is a good start, but with the previous 18 winners all having had a run within 42 days we can start to shed a few there, and other items such as at least 3 career wins, at least one of which was over 6f. Other this we should be looking for include 4yo to 6yo and at least 4 current season run. In regard to the draw, which I’ve been getting wrong of late, the last 11 winners have all come from stalls 8 to 21. A growing trend in many hcaps nowadays is that higher weighted horses are winning, and it takes a lot of effort to look at those carrying less than 8-12.
For various reasons, I’ve passed on Hey Jonesy, Intisaab and Laugh A Minute, while I’ve also given up hopes with Gunmetal and Embour. Adding to the discards pile from my shortlist, out go Gulliver and also the favourite Buffer Zone – favourites have a woeful record in the race, plus I’ve never been overly fond of Irish-trained sprinters. Of the remaining trio, two ran in the race last year, Summerghand and Major Jumbo, and two are among O’Meara’s 5-prong attack – Summerghand and Arecibo; he also has Intisaab, Gulliver and Cold Stare. Tough to pick between them, but I’m going for Summerghand from Major Jumbo and Arecibo with my usual fingers crossed approach.
Ayr 16.20 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (91.8) 10f gd – 10 Run
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 156 (89.9) hv – 8 ran
Mafaaheem 11/2 4-9-8 (95) Dr 3 by 0.5l from Aasheq 13/2 5-9-7 (94) Dr 6
No time for this, but my initial thoughts suggested Certain Lad from Another Touch and Nicholas T.
Ayr 14.00 Cl 2 Hcap 187 (91.2) 8f gd – 12 Run (10 at best)
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 187 (92.9) hv – 12 ran
Waarif 12/1 5-9-3 (95) Dr 3 by 1l from Fire Brigade 4/1 F 4-9-6 (95) Dr 13
Gulf Of Poets 33/1 6-9-10 (99) Dr 7 was 6.85l 9th
Kynren 5-9-12 (101) Dr 3 (102.9)
22 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (529/97.8) 8f gd York 7/2 F 9-4 2.4l 3/18 off 101 – 102.1
in touch, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong
Not won since 2017, but has put in some consistent performances over 7/8f this last 2 years.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (30 days);
Minus: course (?); up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: in form and surely a contender.
Irreverent 3-8-11 (90) Dr 11 (80.2)
07 Sep Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (124/83.0) 8f gd Thir 8/11 F 9-0 1.5l 1/4 off 87 – 78.8
tracked leaders, went 2nd over 3f out, led over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well
Won over 7f here in early June and after lesser efforts against older horses, returned to winning ways in a 4-horse 3yo affair at Thirsk a fortnight ago; trainer thinks he has much more to give and has fitted cheekpieces for the first time today.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (14 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: yet to prove himself against older horses, but trainer considers him a contender.
Waarif 6-9-6 (95) Dr 9 (97.2)
12 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (156/95.7) 10f gd/fm Donc 11/1 9-10 2.5l 4/7 off 95 – 95.7
tracked winner, challenged 4f out, ridden over 1f out, soon one pace, driven and no impression inside final furlong
Runs off the same mark as when taking last year’s renewal, although will carry 3lbs more physical weight; jockey won over this trip at Windsor at the end of June, and dropping back from 10f at Doncaster lto.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (9 days); down 4lbs (wt); back in trip;
Minus:
Verdict: can’t be ignored and a definite contender.
Rush through this and I’d have to go for Kynren to gain that deserved victory from last year’s winner Waarif with Irreverent the danger.
Ayr 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap 1245 (100.0) 6f gd – 25 Run (24 at best)
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 1245 (100.5) hv – 25 ran
Son Of Rest 5/1 F 4-9-3 (101) Dr 17 dht Baron Bolt 28/1 5-8-12 (101) Dr 21
Summerghand 20/1 4-9-2 (100) Dr 11 was 9.65l 11th
George Bowen 20/1 6-9-4 (107) Dr 5 was 10.9l 12th
Gunmetal 14/1 5-9-6 (104) Dr 15 was 12.4l 14th
Staxton 25/1 3-9-1 (101) Dr 8 was 16.15l 16th
Major Jumbo 14/1 4-9-0 (103) Dr 9 was 17.92l 20th
Growl 8/1 6-9-1 (99) Dr 13 was 18.92l 21st
Justanotherbottle 33/1 4-9-2 (105) Dr 25 was 19.92l 22nd
Major Jumbo 5-9-8 (108) Dr 20 (100.6)
07 Sep Gr 1 Stks (1701/) 6f sf Hayd 25/1 9-3 4.75l 7/11 off 108
tracked leaders, pushed along over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong
Listed winner at Chester on penultimate start in early August and a little out of his depth at Haydock lto, although has acquitted himself fairly well at grade level this season; last hcap run was when taking the Coral Sprint at York last October and he’s still 6lbs above his mark that day (had previously run down the field in last year’s renewal here); still looks as if he may have improved again this year so not totally dismissed.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); recent outing (14 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 5lbs;
Verdict: difficult to know here he’s at, but Chester win suggests he could be a contender off this mark.
Buffer Zone 4-9-4 (104) Dr 21 (87.4)
09 Sept Hcap (780/88.4) 6f gd Curragh 11/2 Jt F 9-6 1.75l 1/24 off 99 – 87.4
raced far side group, prominent, 5th halfway, soon closed travelling smoothly, led under 2f out and ridden, stayed on well inside final furlong
Won as a 2yo and a 3yo when with Charlton, but looks to have stepped up a notch since joining the Ger Lyons yard, winning over 6f at the Curragh on his debut in June and again last Sunday where he had Gulliver (-2) 1.8l back in 3rd; carries a 4lbs penalty for that, though is down 2lbs in the actual weight to be carried; difficult to equate the form to this side of the Irish Sea, but has been well supported during the week; however, this is a not a race where favourites have historically done well.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (6 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course; 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: obviously an improving sprinter, but hard to justify such strong support and maybe not the strongest of contenders.
Summerghand 5-9-2 (102) Dr 13 (95.0)
17 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.0) 6f sf Rip 15/2 9-8 2.25l 2/17 off 100 – 90.4
held up behind far side, headway 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on to lead that side group inside final furlong, no impression with winner
Won twice at 3yo and 5 times as a 4yo, but while he has yet to break his duck for this season, 5th in the Wokingham, 4th in the Steward’s Cup and runner-up in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon show that he is at least deserving of a major pot; raised 2lbs for his latest effort, which puts him 2lbs above his mark for last year’s renewal, nevertheless, the Great St. Wilfrid has often been a sound pointer.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (35 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: yet another who meets most of the criteria you’d want from a strong contender.
Arecibo 4-8-12 (98) Dr 17 (94.7)
14 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (374/97.2) 6f gd/fm Donc 33/1 9-4 1l 4/22 off 100 – 94.7
chased leader, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, not quicken towards finish
Has had a promising first season with O’Meara, winning a Cl 3 over 5f on fast ground here back in early July and has threatened to add to that tally since, most noticeably when 3rd to Dakota Gold over the extended 5f at York in the third week of August and again last weekend when a close 4/22 to Oxted in the Portland; runs off a 2lbs lower mark today and looks to be well enough drawn from an upper middle stall.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (7 days); down 2lbs (OR); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: The Portland has not traditionally been a great trial for this, but nevertheless a contender.
Gulliver 5-8-12 (98) Dr 12 (88.8)
09 Sept Hcap (780/88.4) 6f gd Curragh 8/1 9-4 1.8l 3/24 off 97 – 80.9
waited with, raced far side group, 19th halfway, pushed along and headway from 2f out, bumped with rival 1 1/2f out, stayed on strongly inside final furlong, just failed for 2nd
Won first 2 starts as a 3yo when with Palmer, largely being raced on the AW and it’s taken a little time to get into his stride since moving to O’Meara towards the end of last season; finally got off the mark for his new connections at the 11th attempt when winning over 6f at York towards the end of June and after 4 further disappointing runs, stayed on strongly to finish 3rd to Buffer Zone (+2) at the Curragh last Sunday; runs off 1lb higher mark here, but meets BZ on 4lbs better terms for just under 2l, which doesn’t really look enough to turn the tables.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (6 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: could be improving, but has not shown for as yet that suggests he is of the level to win a race of this level and this not the strongest contender.
Yet another of these seemingly impossible sprint to try and solve, although one of the older ones with plenty of past trends to look at. They’re all male horses, which is a good start, but with the previous 18 winners all having had a run within 42 days we can start to shed a few there, and other items such as at least 3 career wins, at least one of which was over 6f. Other this we should be looking for include 4yo to 6yo and at least 4 current season run. In regard to the draw, which I’ve been getting wrong of late, the last 11 winners have all come from stalls 8 to 21. A growing trend in many hcaps nowadays is that higher weighted horses are winning, and it takes a lot of effort to look at those carrying less than 8-12.
For various reasons, I’ve passed on Hey Jonesy, Intisaab and Laugh A Minute, while I’ve also given up hopes with Gunmetal and Embour. Adding to the discards pile from my shortlist, out go Gulliver and also the favourite Buffer Zone – favourites have a woeful record in the race, plus I’ve never been overly fond of Irish-trained sprinters. Of the remaining trio, two ran in the race last year, Summerghand and Major Jumbo, and two are among O’Meara’s 5-prong attack – Summerghand and Arecibo; he also has Intisaab, Gulliver and Cold Stare. Tough to pick between them, but I’m going for Summerghand from Major Jumbo and Arecibo with my usual fingers crossed approach.
Ayr 16.20 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (91.8) 10f gd – 10 Run
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 156 (89.9) hv – 8 ran
Mafaaheem 11/2 4-9-8 (95) Dr 3 by 0.5l from Aasheq 13/2 5-9-7 (94) Dr 6
No time for this, but my initial thoughts suggested Certain Lad from Another Touch and Nicholas T.