Post by Old Timer on Jun 4, 2019 16:46:44 GMT
Only excuse for Windsor is that I never did like night racing, and I certainly couldn’t of picked that as the winner. Yet here I am again back at it and at Newcastle, which used to have one of the better courses in the country before they went AW – haven’t had a winner there since I don’t think! Everything is still very experimental at the moment and like last night I wouldn’t normally look at this sort of race – probably that’s the wisest thing to do!
Newcastle 19.20 Cl 3 Hcap 78 (87.8) 8f AW – 13 Runners (11 at best)
Last year – 97 (89.5) – 13 ran
What’s The Story 11/2 4-9-2 (93) Dr 8 by 0.75l from Constantino 10/1 5-9-6 (94) Dr 2
Ulshaw Bridge 4-9-1 (88) Dr 2
15/2* Cons 15* AB 78* Lto 311* Rat 109*
16 May Cl 3 Hcap (311/94.9) 8f gd/fm York 16/1 8-12 4.75l 8/14 off 89 – 88
slowly away, behind, switched left and headway over 2f out, no extra well inside final furlong
Won a 78/87.6 3yo-hcap at Doncaster last June carrying 9-2 off 87, and followed up with a career best when only just going down in a 280/89.0 3yo-hcap at Ascot carrying 9-1 off 89 the following month; outclassed at York thereafter, but acceptable efforts on final two starts; gelded last October, but not expected to perform on his return at York last month, although showed promise until weakening inside the final furlong against much tougher opposition than today; has been lowered 1lb and drops in class to an equivalent level to his Doncaster win last June; certainly has capability, providing he’s come on for his return; a potential contender providing he takes to the surface.
Lush Life 4-9-7 (94) Dr 12
9/1* Cons 12* AB 60 Lto 93 Rat 109*
23 May Cl 3 Hcap (93/88.6) 8f gd/fm Sand 11/4 9-4 0.25l 1/8 off 91 – 99
held up last, headway on outside over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led towards finish
Lightly-raced sort who was twice a winner as a 3yo, though rather met his match when raised to listed company at Lingfield in November; promising effort on his return in a 72/87.0 at Windsor in early May and made good on that promise by running out a convincing winner in a career best when upped in class at Sandown later in the month; has been raised 3lbs for that, but neither that nor the 9-7 he has to carry look beyond his capability and a definite contender if handling this new surface.
Algaffaal 4-8-5 (78) Dr 10
15/2* Cons 16# AB 55 Lto 55 Rat 106*
30 Apr Cl 4 Hcap (55/77.6) 7f AW Nwcs 14/1 8-9 0.5l 1/8 off 75 – 83
tracked leaders, ridden to challenge over 1f out, stayed on well inside final furlong, led inside final 50 yards
Formerly with the Haggas stable where he had only three starts, plus was gelded, before transferring over to his current yard in April; given the price, probably did better than expected on his return and followed up by making a winning hcap debut over 7f in a career best; has been raised 3lbs, but rises a long way in class and likely will be severely tested in this company; not the strongest contender methinks.
Ibraz 4-9-4 (91) Dr 7
10/3* Cons 23 AB 70* Lto 311* Rat 109*
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/97.0) 9f gd/fm Nwmk 7/1 8-7 2.75l 6/10 off 93 – 94
tracked leader, pushed along to lead over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong
Won back-to-back starts as a 3yo, the second a 100/82.5 hcap over 9f at Sandown carrying 9-3 off 86; raised to a 249/93.3 off 93 at Newmarket, however, he was beaten before the furlong marker and not seen again; second favourite for the 311/95.8 Newbury Spring Cup on his return, he was never in the hunt, being beaten over a furlong out; back up to 9f in the former Suffolk Stks (311/97.0) at Newmarket, he was again fancied and showed a little more before weakening in the final furlong; has been dropped a couple of lbs today and down in class; however, still 5lbs above his last winning mark, although based on his latest effort that may be within the realms of capability and a contender if handling the surface.
The way I see it there are just three likely contenders, Ulshaw Bridge, Lush Life and Ibraz who have the capability of matching today’s ask, although this will mark the first time the trio have run on the tapeta at Newcastle, a surface not all take to. None are exactly highly consistent at present, with Lush Life’s win lto perhaps the best form on offer. With reservations about the surface, a race to leave perhaps, but Lush Life from Ibraz and Ulshaw Bridge would be my best guess.