Post by Old Timer on Mar 16, 2009 12:06:27 GMT
Hereford 3.40 Cl3 Hcap Chase 101/125 (113.1) 31f gd – 10 Run
L’Aventure 10-11-7 OR 120 (138.2) (-2.8)
Win % 16% gd 0/2/4 28f+ 1/8/23 Here 0/0 RH 1/2/4 Gall 3/6/18
Tr 14d 0/7 Tr C 1/5 J 14d 4/12 J/C 0/6 J/Tr 0/0 J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
27 Dec ’05 570/153 (136.3) Gr3HC 14/1 10-4 (131) 1/18 dist Heros Collonges (+7) – [287.3]
always prominent, joined leader 3 out, ridden to lead 2 out, left well clear last
Lto:
14 Feb 656/152 (140.4) Gr3HC 28f hv Hayd 14/1 10-0 (126) 5/16 15.25l Rambling Minster (+14) – [258.2]
prominent, lost place 9th, hampered 12th, soon ridden, hit 5 out when toiling, plugged on from 2 out without threatening
Rambling Minster had previously finished 1.75l 1/13 in a 157/136 HC
It’s now 19 races since she took the Welsh National in ’05 when with Nicholls. Has run some decent races since without ever really threatening to win, as at Haydock lto. Is down 27lbs in class and only up 16lbs in weight from that, but one does wonder if she has another race win left in her.
Martha’s Kinsman 10-11-12 OR 125 (112.6) (10.1)
Win % 22% gd 0/1/3 28f+ 1/0/4 Here 0/0 RH 5/4/13 Gall 4/3/10
Tr 14d 0/23 Tr C 6/36 J 14d 2/20 J/C 6/54 J/Tr 10/97 J/H 0/1/3
Last HC win:
31 Mar ’07 157/131 (118.4) HC 30f gd 7/2F 11-0 (119) 1/8 1l Garryvoe (+6) – [237.9]
tracked leaders, quickened to lead 19th, went clear from 3 out, driven and held on all out run-in
Last 2 races:
31 Jan 157/137 (124.5) HC 32f gd/sf Donc 8/1 11-0 (125) PU/19 Jass (-5) – [0]
midfield, ridden along and lost place before 18th, behind when pulled up before 3 out
28 Nov 90/124 (115.7) HC 26.5f gd/sf Newb 9/1 11-4 (123) 2/10 2l Jim Bobs Girl (-13) – [237.6]
hit 4th, soon rear, well behind 13th, headway 17th, stayed on but plenty to do 3 out, kept on to chase winner run-in, gaining close home but always held
Jim Bobs Girl had previously Fallen at the 1st in a 157/129 HC
It’s 2 years and 9 races since last win and one would have to overlook lto effort at Doncaster to consider here.
Super Judge 8-10-9 OR 108 (114.3) (4.8)
Win % 8% gd 0/2/5 28f+ 0/1/3 Here 2/0/5 RH 3/3/20 Gall 3/2/23
Tr 14d 2/6 Tr C 6/69 J 14d 0/13 J/C 3/37 J/Tr 4/33 J/H 1/3/9
Last HC win:
15 May 78/122 (108.8) HC 25.5f gd Lud 14/1 9-13 (98) 1/7 3.75l Colorado Pearl (+20) – [209.0]
held up and behind, reminders and headway approaching 18th, ridden approaching 2 out, led flat, driven out
Lto:
26 Feb 94/134 (119.1) HC 24f gd Lud 33/1 10-0 (108) 3/11 7.75l Kilcrea Asla (+15) – [222.3]
held up in rear, mistakes 3rd and 13th, headway from 2 out, stayed on well flat
Chiaro (+18) was 9.75l 4th & Master John (+4) was 36.75l 7th
Kilcrea Asla had previously finished 36l 4/10 in a 157/134 NHC
Has proved to be better over fences than hurdles, though that’s not saying a lot. Is down 9lbs in class from lto and up 9bs in weight, and should just about confirm that running with Chiaro on 1lb worse terms.
New Perk 11-10-9 OR 108 (105.7) (3.3)
Win % 16% gd 1/1/3 28f+ 1/1/5 Here 0/0 RH 2/1/14 Gall 2/2/14
Tr 14d 0/4 Tr C 0/1 J 14d 0/9 J/C 0/3 J/Tr 2/26 J/H 1/1/3
Last HC win (3rd last):
20 Nov 100/114 (104.1) HC 27.5f gd/sf Winc 15/2 10-0 (98) 1/7 51l Elsie’s Pride (+16) – [229.9]
tracked leaders, left in lead 14th, drew clear from 3 out, comfortably
Last 2 races:
25 Feb 157/124 (116.1) HC 31f gd/sf Folk 13/2JF 10-3 (108) F/14 Russian Trigger (+22) – [0]
chased leaders, 4th and still in touch when fell 17th
Russian Trigger had previously finished 31.25l 3/9 in a 50/130 NC – won Midlands National on Saturday.
17 Dec 81/120 (109.0) HC 30f sf Bang 13/2 10-5 (106) 2/13 2.5l Bannister Lane (+21) – [213.7]
tracked leaders, ridden approaching 2 out, went 2nd last, rider dropped whip run-in, stayed on but unable to challenge winner
Has been in good form of late under his young claimer and can perhaps be forgiven his fall at Folkestone lto, as that was the first time in 25 starts over fences. Would certainly have a chance on Wincanton running in November, though runs here off a 10lb higher mark.
From a VDW viewpoint I suppose L’Aventure and Super Judge are the ones to be on, though not with a lot of confidence I must admit.
I’ve also been fooling around trying to come up with some ratings that might be of help – can’t be much worse than anything I’ve tried before. So, the top 4 for this race are:
Martha’s Kinsman 89.6
Chiaro 86.5
L’Aventure 80.8
Chabrimal Minster 79.7
So I guess you pays your money and takes your chance yet again. About the only thing I’d say with any confidence is that Master John and Gallik Dawn are highly unlikely winners.
Oldtimer
L’Aventure 10-11-7 OR 120 (138.2) (-2.8)
Win % 16% gd 0/2/4 28f+ 1/8/23 Here 0/0 RH 1/2/4 Gall 3/6/18
Tr 14d 0/7 Tr C 1/5 J 14d 4/12 J/C 0/6 J/Tr 0/0 J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
27 Dec ’05 570/153 (136.3) Gr3HC 14/1 10-4 (131) 1/18 dist Heros Collonges (+7) – [287.3]
always prominent, joined leader 3 out, ridden to lead 2 out, left well clear last
Lto:
14 Feb 656/152 (140.4) Gr3HC 28f hv Hayd 14/1 10-0 (126) 5/16 15.25l Rambling Minster (+14) – [258.2]
prominent, lost place 9th, hampered 12th, soon ridden, hit 5 out when toiling, plugged on from 2 out without threatening
Rambling Minster had previously finished 1.75l 1/13 in a 157/136 HC
It’s now 19 races since she took the Welsh National in ’05 when with Nicholls. Has run some decent races since without ever really threatening to win, as at Haydock lto. Is down 27lbs in class and only up 16lbs in weight from that, but one does wonder if she has another race win left in her.
Martha’s Kinsman 10-11-12 OR 125 (112.6) (10.1)
Win % 22% gd 0/1/3 28f+ 1/0/4 Here 0/0 RH 5/4/13 Gall 4/3/10
Tr 14d 0/23 Tr C 6/36 J 14d 2/20 J/C 6/54 J/Tr 10/97 J/H 0/1/3
Last HC win:
31 Mar ’07 157/131 (118.4) HC 30f gd 7/2F 11-0 (119) 1/8 1l Garryvoe (+6) – [237.9]
tracked leaders, quickened to lead 19th, went clear from 3 out, driven and held on all out run-in
Last 2 races:
31 Jan 157/137 (124.5) HC 32f gd/sf Donc 8/1 11-0 (125) PU/19 Jass (-5) – [0]
midfield, ridden along and lost place before 18th, behind when pulled up before 3 out
28 Nov 90/124 (115.7) HC 26.5f gd/sf Newb 9/1 11-4 (123) 2/10 2l Jim Bobs Girl (-13) – [237.6]
hit 4th, soon rear, well behind 13th, headway 17th, stayed on but plenty to do 3 out, kept on to chase winner run-in, gaining close home but always held
Jim Bobs Girl had previously Fallen at the 1st in a 157/129 HC
It’s 2 years and 9 races since last win and one would have to overlook lto effort at Doncaster to consider here.
Super Judge 8-10-9 OR 108 (114.3) (4.8)
Win % 8% gd 0/2/5 28f+ 0/1/3 Here 2/0/5 RH 3/3/20 Gall 3/2/23
Tr 14d 2/6 Tr C 6/69 J 14d 0/13 J/C 3/37 J/Tr 4/33 J/H 1/3/9
Last HC win:
15 May 78/122 (108.8) HC 25.5f gd Lud 14/1 9-13 (98) 1/7 3.75l Colorado Pearl (+20) – [209.0]
held up and behind, reminders and headway approaching 18th, ridden approaching 2 out, led flat, driven out
Lto:
26 Feb 94/134 (119.1) HC 24f gd Lud 33/1 10-0 (108) 3/11 7.75l Kilcrea Asla (+15) – [222.3]
held up in rear, mistakes 3rd and 13th, headway from 2 out, stayed on well flat
Chiaro (+18) was 9.75l 4th & Master John (+4) was 36.75l 7th
Kilcrea Asla had previously finished 36l 4/10 in a 157/134 NHC
Has proved to be better over fences than hurdles, though that’s not saying a lot. Is down 9lbs in class from lto and up 9bs in weight, and should just about confirm that running with Chiaro on 1lb worse terms.
New Perk 11-10-9 OR 108 (105.7) (3.3)
Win % 16% gd 1/1/3 28f+ 1/1/5 Here 0/0 RH 2/1/14 Gall 2/2/14
Tr 14d 0/4 Tr C 0/1 J 14d 0/9 J/C 0/3 J/Tr 2/26 J/H 1/1/3
Last HC win (3rd last):
20 Nov 100/114 (104.1) HC 27.5f gd/sf Winc 15/2 10-0 (98) 1/7 51l Elsie’s Pride (+16) – [229.9]
tracked leaders, left in lead 14th, drew clear from 3 out, comfortably
Last 2 races:
25 Feb 157/124 (116.1) HC 31f gd/sf Folk 13/2JF 10-3 (108) F/14 Russian Trigger (+22) – [0]
chased leaders, 4th and still in touch when fell 17th
Russian Trigger had previously finished 31.25l 3/9 in a 50/130 NC – won Midlands National on Saturday.
17 Dec 81/120 (109.0) HC 30f sf Bang 13/2 10-5 (106) 2/13 2.5l Bannister Lane (+21) – [213.7]
tracked leaders, ridden approaching 2 out, went 2nd last, rider dropped whip run-in, stayed on but unable to challenge winner
Has been in good form of late under his young claimer and can perhaps be forgiven his fall at Folkestone lto, as that was the first time in 25 starts over fences. Would certainly have a chance on Wincanton running in November, though runs here off a 10lb higher mark.
From a VDW viewpoint I suppose L’Aventure and Super Judge are the ones to be on, though not with a lot of confidence I must admit.
I’ve also been fooling around trying to come up with some ratings that might be of help – can’t be much worse than anything I’ve tried before. So, the top 4 for this race are:
Martha’s Kinsman 89.6
Chiaro 86.5
L’Aventure 80.8
Chabrimal Minster 79.7
So I guess you pays your money and takes your chance yet again. About the only thing I’d say with any confidence is that Master John and Gallik Dawn are highly unlikely winners.
Oldtimer