Post by Old Timer on Mar 14, 2009 12:06:32 GMT
Sorry you missed Cheltenham, as you could have suffered with me until the tide turned yesterday.
Uttoxeter 3.10 List Hcap Chase 570/146 (133.3) 33.5f sf – 19 Run (17 at most)
Weights raised 4lbs
Last year – 570/140 (129.6) gd/sf 16 Ran
Himalayan Trail 16/1 9-9-9 (124) by 22l from Badger Law 15/2 8-10-8 (135)
The Dark Lord 12/1 11-10-6 (130) was 26.5l 3rd
Naunton Brook 9/1 9-10-13 (140) was 66.25l 9th & last of the finishers
Flintoff 15/2 7-10-12 (136) PU before 13th when tailed off
Hold The Pin 10-10-5 OR 125
Win % 1% sf 1/1/5 28f+ 0/0/2 Uttox 0/0 LH 1/1/8 Gall 2/1/8
Tr 14d 0/15 Tr C 0/2 J 14d 0/5 J/C 0/0 J/Tr 0/10 J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
24 May ’07 229/118 (100.9) HC 24f hv Nav 7/1 10-3 (100) 1/13 3.5l Knockersally Flyer (+4) – [78.1]
held up towards rear, slight mistake 2nd, 7th and smooth headway after 4 out, 3rd after 2 out, challenged last, soon ridden to lead, stayed on well
Lto:
01 Feb 167/125 (111.3) HH 24f sf Punch 7/1 10-7 (111) 2/13 5l Dashing George (-10) – [94.2]
held up towards rear, progress 3 out, 8th next, ridden to go moderate 2nd last, kept on without threatening winner
Dashing George had previously finished 0.25l 2/11 in a 74/109 HH
Never really gone on from ’07 success over fences at Navan, although has had some success over hurdles. Gets into this as 2nd reserve, and it would be a major surprise if he were to prove good enough even off this light weight.
Russian Trigger 7-10-12 OR 132
Win % 44% sf 2/0/4 28f+ 1/0/1 Uttox 0/0 LH 0/0/2 Gall 1/1/4
Tr 14d 11/13 Tr C 1/7 J 14d 2/19 J/C 2/21 J/Tr 13/61 J/H 1/0/1
Last HC win (lto):
25 Feb 157/124 (116.1) HC 31f gd/sf Folk 12/1 11-11 (123) 1/14 0.25l Enroblim Trop (-20) – [107.2]
mistakes, raced in midfield, blundered 9th, chased leaders and blundered 17th and 18th, driven to dispute lead between last 2, hit last, forged ahead final 75yds
Enroblim Trop had previously finished 22l 3/12 in a 53/115 HC
Handled the step up in trip at Folkestone lto on only his 3rd chase start. Has been raised 9lbs for that however and is in higher class today over even further, though carries less physical weight. Just wonder about aboiut going LH, as he’s 0/2 this way as opposed to 4/1/7 RH. Obviously going the right way, but may lack a little experience to figure in a race of this nature at this stage of his career, although 7yos have won in the past.
Badgerlaw 9-10-13 OR 133
Win % 13% sf 1/1/7 28f+ 0/1/1 Uttox 0/1/1 LH 0/3/5 Gall 0/3/5
Tr 14d 0/10 Tr C 1/5 J 14d 1/8 J/C 0/2 J/Tr 13% J/H 1/3/10
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
22 Feb 300/133 Gr2NC 20f sf Naas 16/1 11-5 (127) 4/8 20.5l Joncol (0)
tracked leaders, ridden in 3rd entering straight, soon no impression
Joncol had previously finished 0.5l 1/18 in an 81 NC (chase debut)
Runs off a 2lb lower mark than when finishing a distant 2nd in this last year (121.7). Only has a NC win to show for 7 subsequent starts however, although has generally been aimed higher than many in this field.
Appleaday 8-10-10 OR 130
Win % 19% sf 1/3/5 28f+ 0/0 Uttox 0/0/1 LH 1/3/12 Gall 3/3/13
Tr 14d 0/7 Tr C 1/21 J 14d 1/21 J/C 12% J/Tr 14% J/H 2/3/10
Last HC win (lto):
13 Feb 94/130 (119.3) HC 24.5f sf Sand 3/1 11-5 (123) 1/7 2.75l Mistress Nell (-9) – [114.0]
tracked leader 4th, hit 4th, challenged 12th, led next, not fluent 13th and 14th, ridden 3 out, stayed on well approaching last, driven out
Mistress Nell had previously finished 0.5l 1/18 in a 98/123 HC (CB)
Gained his reward at Sandown lto for some consistent efforts, for which he’s been raised 7lbs. Not tried anything beyond 26.5f, so that a major question, but does at least stay that far.
Kilcrea Asla 8-10-12 OR 132
Win % 10% sf 0/1/4 28f+ 0/0 Uttox 0/0 LH 1/2/5 Gall 1/2/5
Tr 14d 5/12 Tr C 13/63 J 14d 9/46 J/C 24% J/Tr 12/46 J/H 0/0
Last HC win (lto):
26 Feb 94/134 (119.1) HC 24f gd Lud 11/2 11-1 (123) 1/11 7l Pretty Star (-4) – [114.5]
always prominent, led 9th to 14th, led approaching 3 out, clear last, eased close home
Pretty Star had previously finished 3.5l 3/7 in a 130/136 HC
Had no problem stepping up in trip at Ludlow lto, but this really is a step into the unknown. Compared to others however, a 9lb rise is not particularly fierce for a 7l win that could well have been more. Has the assistance of AP in the saddle today too.
Others that could be considered include Companero and Gidam Gidam, though they are a little down the pecking order and the former is trying to be only the second horse to carry over 11-0 to victory in the past 10 years, although he would have been in before the weights were raised 4lbs. So while they are not exactly off the radar I’ll stick with my quintet above.
Of these, I’m not exactly holding my breath over Hold The Pin’s chances, while I think that Russian Trigger might struggle here too. That leaves me with three live contenders in Badgerlaw, Appleaday and Kilcrea Asla, and it would not surprise me if any of the trio won. Tough to pick just one, but of the three Appleaday seems to have the best form and is the tentative selection to hopefully make the frame.
Uttoxeter 2.35 Cl2 Hcap Hdl 163/129 (122.7) 22.5f gd/sf – 15 Run
Weights raised 16lbs
Last year – 117/136 (123.9) gd 15 Ran
Wind Instrument 9/2JF 7-10-9 (119) by 3.25l from Laertes 25/1 7-11-6 (130)
Maktu 7-11-6 OR 123
Win % 18% gd/sf 1/0/3 21.24f 1/3/5 Uttox 0/1/1 LH 1/3/8 Gall 1/1/3
Tr 14d 0/3 Tr C 0/6 J 14d 0/15 J/C 2/36 J/Tr 2/80 J/H 0/0/1
Last HH win (lto):
19 Jan 157/131 (120.2) HH 26f sf Here 17/2 10-9 (114) 1/15 0.2l The Very Man (+10) – [111.3]
held up in mid-division, headway on inside when mistake 3 out, ridden approaching 2 out, led approaching last, edged left flat, all out
The Very Man had previously finished 2l 1/10 in a 98/129 HH
Returned from a year’s break to win at Chepstow in November. Followed up by finishing 4th to Heathcliff there at the Christmas meeting. Was raised in trip lto at Hereford and just accounted for previous winner The Very Man. Has been raised 9lbs for that, which seems a little over the top, but has had a couple of months break to get over his exertions. Drop back in trip a question and rather worried by the replacement jockey for Hutchinson, but definitely a player to me.
Mumbles Head 8-11-11 OR 128
Win % 36% gd/sf 1/0/1 21.24f 1/2/4 Uttox 0/0 LH 2/2/5 Gall 0/3/3
Tr 14d 0/9 Tr C 9/54 J 14d 2/24 J/C 10% J/Tr 12% J/H 0/0
Last HH win:
27 Apr ’07 78/119 (103.5) 27f gd/sf Perth 5/4F 11-7 (115) 1/13 20l Oscar The Boxer (-18) – [1011.6]
took keen hold, chased leaders, led 4 out, drew clear before 2 out, very easily
Lto:
08 May ’07 63/135 H 22.5f gd/fm Kelso 1/4F 11-8 (135) 2/6 3l King Barry (-8)
pressed winner, led 3 out, ridden last, edged left and headed run-in, one pace
Looked to be a promising sort before breaking down when 2nd to King Barry at Kelso in May ’07 and it would be a great training feat to get him ready to win today.
Victorias Head 7-11-12 OR 129
Win % 19% gd/sf 0/1/5 21.24f 0/0/2 Uttox 0/0 LH 2/3/8 Gall 2/3/12
Tr 14d 2/13 Tr C 4/21 J 14d 1/21 J/C 12% J/Tr 19% J/H 2/1/8
Last HH win (lto):
05 Mar 78/123 (117.3) HH 19.5f hv Ling 5/2F 11-6 (117) 1/8 14l Federstar (-13) – [116.1]
held up, smooth progress to track leading pair 3 out, brought very wide in straight and led before 2 out, easily drew clear, pushed out
Federstar had previously PU in a 39/107 HH
Hosed home at Lingfield last weekend, though hardly beating in-form horses. Has been raised 12lbs for that, which may well be excessive. No problem with the physical weight as such, but is moving up substantially in trip today and PU when tried at 22f in January.
Several others warrant attention here, not least Heraldry and the NH maidens Bulwark and Sangfroid. However, this is one of those rare cases where I’ve got a horse that sticks out like a sore thumb to me, Maktu. What does worry me is that no one else seems to be that impressed, as he fails to make the front end of the forecast. Nevertheless, I’ll stick to my guns as he has so many plus points in my eyes. Let’s hope it’s not another one of those that fails to live up to expectations!
It looks as if I proved once more that Friday 13th is one of my luckier days – no wonder I can’t win; I’m out of kilter with the rest of the world! Any case, having worn myself out with Cheltenham this week I’ll content myself with just two races this Saturday – no time for any more in any case, as I’ve got to get myself sorted in order to devote my computer to the MU v Liverpool match!
Oldtimer
Uttoxeter 3.10 List Hcap Chase 570/146 (133.3) 33.5f sf – 19 Run (17 at most)
Weights raised 4lbs
Last year – 570/140 (129.6) gd/sf 16 Ran
Himalayan Trail 16/1 9-9-9 (124) by 22l from Badger Law 15/2 8-10-8 (135)
The Dark Lord 12/1 11-10-6 (130) was 26.5l 3rd
Naunton Brook 9/1 9-10-13 (140) was 66.25l 9th & last of the finishers
Flintoff 15/2 7-10-12 (136) PU before 13th when tailed off
Hold The Pin 10-10-5 OR 125
Win % 1% sf 1/1/5 28f+ 0/0/2 Uttox 0/0 LH 1/1/8 Gall 2/1/8
Tr 14d 0/15 Tr C 0/2 J 14d 0/5 J/C 0/0 J/Tr 0/10 J/H 0/0
Last HC win:
24 May ’07 229/118 (100.9) HC 24f hv Nav 7/1 10-3 (100) 1/13 3.5l Knockersally Flyer (+4) – [78.1]
held up towards rear, slight mistake 2nd, 7th and smooth headway after 4 out, 3rd after 2 out, challenged last, soon ridden to lead, stayed on well
Lto:
01 Feb 167/125 (111.3) HH 24f sf Punch 7/1 10-7 (111) 2/13 5l Dashing George (-10) – [94.2]
held up towards rear, progress 3 out, 8th next, ridden to go moderate 2nd last, kept on without threatening winner
Dashing George had previously finished 0.25l 2/11 in a 74/109 HH
Never really gone on from ’07 success over fences at Navan, although has had some success over hurdles. Gets into this as 2nd reserve, and it would be a major surprise if he were to prove good enough even off this light weight.
Russian Trigger 7-10-12 OR 132
Win % 44% sf 2/0/4 28f+ 1/0/1 Uttox 0/0 LH 0/0/2 Gall 1/1/4
Tr 14d 11/13 Tr C 1/7 J 14d 2/19 J/C 2/21 J/Tr 13/61 J/H 1/0/1
Last HC win (lto):
25 Feb 157/124 (116.1) HC 31f gd/sf Folk 12/1 11-11 (123) 1/14 0.25l Enroblim Trop (-20) – [107.2]
mistakes, raced in midfield, blundered 9th, chased leaders and blundered 17th and 18th, driven to dispute lead between last 2, hit last, forged ahead final 75yds
Enroblim Trop had previously finished 22l 3/12 in a 53/115 HC
Handled the step up in trip at Folkestone lto on only his 3rd chase start. Has been raised 9lbs for that however and is in higher class today over even further, though carries less physical weight. Just wonder about aboiut going LH, as he’s 0/2 this way as opposed to 4/1/7 RH. Obviously going the right way, but may lack a little experience to figure in a race of this nature at this stage of his career, although 7yos have won in the past.
Badgerlaw 9-10-13 OR 133
Win % 13% sf 1/1/7 28f+ 0/1/1 Uttox 0/1/1 LH 0/3/5 Gall 0/3/5
Tr 14d 0/10 Tr C 1/5 J 14d 1/8 J/C 0/2 J/Tr 13% J/H 1/3/10
Last HC win:
None as yet
Lto:
22 Feb 300/133 Gr2NC 20f sf Naas 16/1 11-5 (127) 4/8 20.5l Joncol (0)
tracked leaders, ridden in 3rd entering straight, soon no impression
Joncol had previously finished 0.5l 1/18 in an 81 NC (chase debut)
Runs off a 2lb lower mark than when finishing a distant 2nd in this last year (121.7). Only has a NC win to show for 7 subsequent starts however, although has generally been aimed higher than many in this field.
Appleaday 8-10-10 OR 130
Win % 19% sf 1/3/5 28f+ 0/0 Uttox 0/0/1 LH 1/3/12 Gall 3/3/13
Tr 14d 0/7 Tr C 1/21 J 14d 1/21 J/C 12% J/Tr 14% J/H 2/3/10
Last HC win (lto):
13 Feb 94/130 (119.3) HC 24.5f sf Sand 3/1 11-5 (123) 1/7 2.75l Mistress Nell (-9) – [114.0]
tracked leader 4th, hit 4th, challenged 12th, led next, not fluent 13th and 14th, ridden 3 out, stayed on well approaching last, driven out
Mistress Nell had previously finished 0.5l 1/18 in a 98/123 HC (CB)
Gained his reward at Sandown lto for some consistent efforts, for which he’s been raised 7lbs. Not tried anything beyond 26.5f, so that a major question, but does at least stay that far.
Kilcrea Asla 8-10-12 OR 132
Win % 10% sf 0/1/4 28f+ 0/0 Uttox 0/0 LH 1/2/5 Gall 1/2/5
Tr 14d 5/12 Tr C 13/63 J 14d 9/46 J/C 24% J/Tr 12/46 J/H 0/0
Last HC win (lto):
26 Feb 94/134 (119.1) HC 24f gd Lud 11/2 11-1 (123) 1/11 7l Pretty Star (-4) – [114.5]
always prominent, led 9th to 14th, led approaching 3 out, clear last, eased close home
Pretty Star had previously finished 3.5l 3/7 in a 130/136 HC
Had no problem stepping up in trip at Ludlow lto, but this really is a step into the unknown. Compared to others however, a 9lb rise is not particularly fierce for a 7l win that could well have been more. Has the assistance of AP in the saddle today too.
Others that could be considered include Companero and Gidam Gidam, though they are a little down the pecking order and the former is trying to be only the second horse to carry over 11-0 to victory in the past 10 years, although he would have been in before the weights were raised 4lbs. So while they are not exactly off the radar I’ll stick with my quintet above.
Of these, I’m not exactly holding my breath over Hold The Pin’s chances, while I think that Russian Trigger might struggle here too. That leaves me with three live contenders in Badgerlaw, Appleaday and Kilcrea Asla, and it would not surprise me if any of the trio won. Tough to pick just one, but of the three Appleaday seems to have the best form and is the tentative selection to hopefully make the frame.
Uttoxeter 2.35 Cl2 Hcap Hdl 163/129 (122.7) 22.5f gd/sf – 15 Run
Weights raised 16lbs
Last year – 117/136 (123.9) gd 15 Ran
Wind Instrument 9/2JF 7-10-9 (119) by 3.25l from Laertes 25/1 7-11-6 (130)
Maktu 7-11-6 OR 123
Win % 18% gd/sf 1/0/3 21.24f 1/3/5 Uttox 0/1/1 LH 1/3/8 Gall 1/1/3
Tr 14d 0/3 Tr C 0/6 J 14d 0/15 J/C 2/36 J/Tr 2/80 J/H 0/0/1
Last HH win (lto):
19 Jan 157/131 (120.2) HH 26f sf Here 17/2 10-9 (114) 1/15 0.2l The Very Man (+10) – [111.3]
held up in mid-division, headway on inside when mistake 3 out, ridden approaching 2 out, led approaching last, edged left flat, all out
The Very Man had previously finished 2l 1/10 in a 98/129 HH
Returned from a year’s break to win at Chepstow in November. Followed up by finishing 4th to Heathcliff there at the Christmas meeting. Was raised in trip lto at Hereford and just accounted for previous winner The Very Man. Has been raised 9lbs for that, which seems a little over the top, but has had a couple of months break to get over his exertions. Drop back in trip a question and rather worried by the replacement jockey for Hutchinson, but definitely a player to me.
Mumbles Head 8-11-11 OR 128
Win % 36% gd/sf 1/0/1 21.24f 1/2/4 Uttox 0/0 LH 2/2/5 Gall 0/3/3
Tr 14d 0/9 Tr C 9/54 J 14d 2/24 J/C 10% J/Tr 12% J/H 0/0
Last HH win:
27 Apr ’07 78/119 (103.5) 27f gd/sf Perth 5/4F 11-7 (115) 1/13 20l Oscar The Boxer (-18) – [1011.6]
took keen hold, chased leaders, led 4 out, drew clear before 2 out, very easily
Lto:
08 May ’07 63/135 H 22.5f gd/fm Kelso 1/4F 11-8 (135) 2/6 3l King Barry (-8)
pressed winner, led 3 out, ridden last, edged left and headed run-in, one pace
Looked to be a promising sort before breaking down when 2nd to King Barry at Kelso in May ’07 and it would be a great training feat to get him ready to win today.
Victorias Head 7-11-12 OR 129
Win % 19% gd/sf 0/1/5 21.24f 0/0/2 Uttox 0/0 LH 2/3/8 Gall 2/3/12
Tr 14d 2/13 Tr C 4/21 J 14d 1/21 J/C 12% J/Tr 19% J/H 2/1/8
Last HH win (lto):
05 Mar 78/123 (117.3) HH 19.5f hv Ling 5/2F 11-6 (117) 1/8 14l Federstar (-13) – [116.1]
held up, smooth progress to track leading pair 3 out, brought very wide in straight and led before 2 out, easily drew clear, pushed out
Federstar had previously PU in a 39/107 HH
Hosed home at Lingfield last weekend, though hardly beating in-form horses. Has been raised 12lbs for that, which may well be excessive. No problem with the physical weight as such, but is moving up substantially in trip today and PU when tried at 22f in January.
Several others warrant attention here, not least Heraldry and the NH maidens Bulwark and Sangfroid. However, this is one of those rare cases where I’ve got a horse that sticks out like a sore thumb to me, Maktu. What does worry me is that no one else seems to be that impressed, as he fails to make the front end of the forecast. Nevertheless, I’ll stick to my guns as he has so many plus points in my eyes. Let’s hope it’s not another one of those that fails to live up to expectations!
It looks as if I proved once more that Friday 13th is one of my luckier days – no wonder I can’t win; I’m out of kilter with the rest of the world! Any case, having worn myself out with Cheltenham this week I’ll content myself with just two races this Saturday – no time for any more in any case, as I’ve got to get myself sorted in order to devote my computer to the MU v Liverpool match!
Oldtimer