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Post by Kimmy on Jul 24, 2015 15:23:14 GMT
STAT WATCH. On an afternoon's racing where there were a few surprise winners, we were content to come away with a sole 2/1 winner (Intilaaq), and hope for better this Saturday, when Channel 4 will be broadcasting from Ascot (2.05, 2.40, 3.15 and 3.50) and York (2.20, 2.55 and 3.30). On the Flat, jockeys' championship hopeful Silvestre de Sousa is busily firing in the winners, having ridden 9 in the past week (to Monday, 20 July), putting him one clear of the next most prolific jockey, Graham Lee. By strike rate, de Sousa's 28% is great, but is surpassed by the 33% of Harry Bentley and 31% of Tom Marquand. Of the Flat trainers, Mark Johnston's excellent season continues, having saddled 10 winners in the last 7 days, ahead of the 6 of the red-hot yard of Hugo Palmer, which recently celebrated its first Classic winner. Just behind Palmer is the trio of David O'Meara, Richard Hannon and Willie Haggas, with Haggas's 31% strike rate giving him the bragging rights over the other two trainers, if pipped by the 33% of Karl Burke and the sensational 66% of Hugo Palmer. So on to the featured racing at the first CH4- televised from Ascot is the 2.05, the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes, a 6f Group 3 for the juvenile fillies. Henry Candy's improving LA RIOJA is less exposed than some, and the yard is in good form (25% last 14 days), while Kevin Ryan's ASHADIHAN was a slightly unlucky second in the Group 3 Albany Stakes last time, and is a former distance winner. Willie Haggas's (28%) BESHARAH has the best form to date. The 2.40 is a 1m handicap in which Andrew Balding's ROCKET PUNCH (67% over distance) could be open to further improvement, as could Sir Michael Stoute's (19% last 14 days) GRAND INQUISITOR . The 7f International Stakes (3.15) looks a typically competitive renewal of this valuable handicap and David Elsworth's SPECULATIVE BID looks interesting having won over course and distance in the Victoria Cup and went close last time, despite being hampered, in the Royal Hunt Cup, off his current mark. Mick Channon's LINCOLN has a nice pull at the weights with Speculative Bid, when second to that horse in the Victoria Cup, and ran well in a Group 3 last time. The 3.50 is one of the most valuable races in the British Flat racing calendar, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, over 1m 4f, in which trainer John Gosden could saddle the exciting and unbeaten GOLDEN HORN , who is the horse to beat on form and at the weights. Sir Michael Stoute's SNOW SKY may be best of the rest and, unlike Golden Horn, has winning form on the expected ground, over distance and at Ascot. At York, the televised action gets underway at 2.20 with a Class 2 7f handicap. David O'Meara's team have a great record at York and their charge MONT RAS ran well for a long way last time, in a similar race, when possibly in need of the run. Another yard which frequently visits York's winners' enclosure is that of Richard Fahey, who could do well again with DUSKY QUEEN , who won a Listed race last time and has a progressive profile. At 2.55, the Group 2 York Stakes (1m 2f 88y) looks interesting, with David O'Meara's top- rated Group race winner CUSTOM CUT needing to prove he gets 1m 2f, but he has won over a stiff 1m this season and over 9f at this course last year. Alternatively, trainer Peter Niven's CLEVER COOKIE won a Listed race at York over 1m 6f last time, and a Group 3 over 1m 5f at Chester the time before, and could expose any stamina limitations of Custom Cut. The 6f Dash Handicap at 3.30 could go the way of Ed Walker's progressive BUSHCRAFT , who has won his last three starts, including over distance and at this level last time. Kevin Ryan's AL KHAN ran well over an easy 7f last time and the drop back to a stiff 6f may suit. Also, Jeremy Noseda's improving 6f winner MISTER BRIGHTSIDE may take this step up in class having won at a level lower by a clear margin last time. ================================================= RACE RATING. 964-11 Clever Cookie 56 7 Peter Niven He has developed into a very classy stayer this season, announcing himself by winning the Ormonde Stakes at Chester's May meeting, beating Tac de Boistron in soft ground. He soon followed up at York next time out in impressive style, but has not run since then, as the ground has been too firm for him. This winning hurdler certainly looks up to stepping up to the highest level, but more conditions need to be in his favour. For instance, he needs ground softer than good ideally, and at least an extra two furlongs further to race. RATING 91 811-11 Dylan Mouth 48 4 Stefano Botti (Italy) Has won nine of his ten races; his only defeat came in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last year. He won the Gran Premio di Milano last month, having scored in the Italian Derby last season. His last four wins have been by an average of fifteen lengths, but his poor run in Britain over course and distance last season is a major concern. There is no doubting that he is an exceptional horse, but he needs to prove that he can race away from Italy this afternoon. RATING 97 414-41 Eagle Top 35 4 John Gosden He won the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, but has not been running quite up to that form this season. He was disappointing when returning in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown in May, though ran better next time out at the Royal meeting when finishing second to Snow Sky in the Hardwicke Stakes. Whilst he is a decent horse, it is difficult to see him reversing places with Snow Sky this afternoon. RATING 92 1-2232 Flintshire 27 5 Andre Fabre (France) He is definitely a 'nearly horse', having been runner up on so many occasions in his career, albeit at the highest level to some great horses. His best form includes finishing second in the Arc behind Treve, to Main Sequence in the Breeders' Cup Mile, and behind Dolniya in the Dubai Sheema Classic. His biggest win came in the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin. He will be partnered by Vincent Cheminaud this afternoon for the first time, which looks a good move, as Maxime Guyon has tended to lack imagination on him in the past. Cheminaud is the French jumping Champion, and has excelled on the level already, having won the French Derby. RATING 98 1061-5 Madame Chiang 72 4 David Simcock This filly is superb on soft ground, but is quite easy to beat on a better surface. She demonstrated her love for a soft surface by winning the Musidora last season, and the Fillies' and Mares' Championship on Champions' Day last season. The ground was heavy when she won at Ascot at the end of the season, and should the ground be the same today, she would stand a chance. As these conditions are unlikely, however, she is very difficult to fancy. RATING 90 11-233 Postponed 35 4 Luca Cumani Has run some excellent races in defeat this year, having won the Great Voltigeur Stakes last season. He has been placed behind Western Hymn, Al Kazeem and Snow Sky this season, running an excellent race on each occasion, but it is hard to see why he should gain revenge on Snow Sky in this more competitive race. RATING 95 72-134 Romsdal 71 4 John Gosden Romsdal was a good horse last year, finishing third in the Derby to Australia and second in the St Leger to Kingston Hill. He won a Listed race at Kempton at the start of the season, before finishing third to Arab Spring at Newbury, when he was a beaten favourite. Last time out he finished fourth in the Yorkshire Cup, behind Snow Sky, which was a below par run over a distance he proved he stayed in the St Leger last season. RATING 96 237-11 Snow Sky 35 4 Sir Michael Stoute Has been most improved this season, winning the Yorkshire Cup at York's Dante meeting, before running a career-best in the Hardwick Stakes last time out. On last season's form, Postponed, Romsdal and Flintshire all have the beating of Snow Sky, but after his front-running display last time out, he appears to be Golden Horn's main challenger this afternoon. He is reunited with Pat Smullen, who gave him a brilliant ride at Ascot, but the other jockeys will expect him to blaze a trail. His best chance of beating Golden Horn today is to set a good pace in front to ensure that stamina reserves are required in the final furlong. RATING 99 31-216 Telescope 35 5 Sir Michael Stoute A most infuriating horse that is capable of looking as though the world is his oyster at times. He has never been more impressive than when winning the Hardwicke Stakes last season by a wide margin, but was never travelling in the race this season, as his stable-mate, Snow Sky, bossed the field from the front. He has been a beaten favourite on six occasions during his career, and has a chance of making the frame, but is an unlikely winner based on his last race. RATING 93 511-14 The Corsican 38 4 David Simcock The Corsican has a really decent profile, winning a handicap earlier in the season and a Listed race at Goodwood. He then showed further progress by finishing fourth in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot, with Western Hymn finishing just in front of him. This would put his form on a par with Eagle Top, though he is possibly more open to some improvement. It's hard to see him winning this race, but it would be no surprise to see him win a pattern race before the end of the season. RATING 94 1-1111 Golden Horn 21 3 John Gosden Golden Horn has proved himself to be a remarkable three-year-old, winning the Fielden Stakes, the Dante, the Derby and the Eclipse so far this season. This beautiful son of Cape Cross appears to have no blemishes, despite his owner/breeder warning prior to the Derby that he may fail to stay the trip. It looked as though The Grey Gatsby was going to mount a strong challenge in the Eclipse last time out, but he defeated the highest rated British-trained horse by 3½ lengths at the line. Hopefully, Pat Smullen will set a reasonable gallop, and Frankie Dettori can settle Golden Horn in the race, before delivering the Derby winner in the home straight to confirm to any doubter that Golden Horn is a great Champion. RATING 100 ========================================================== NOTEBOOK. Sheikh Hamdan had to pay a hefty price to supplement INTILAAQ into the 2,000 Guineas, but after his win at Newbury last week, it is easy to see why. He won a maiden in the spring, before running in the Newmarket feature, but never got involved in the race, and finished well beaten. He was then off the track until last weekend, when winning a Listed race at Newbury, beating the very useful Consort in the process. The son of Dynaformer appreciated the step up in trip and looks destined for better things now that Roger Varian has him back in winning form. Trainer Hugo Palmer has been in great form this season, training his first Classic winner last week, but he also won with the progressive NIDNOD (named after the mother in the best- selling book 'Dear Lupin') at Lingfield. This two-year-old filly was winning her first nursery, having finished third on her previous two starts. She is unlikely to be punished too heavily by the handicapper and can follow up. Six furlongs on good or easier ground seems to suit the daughter of Myboycharlie best
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Post by Kimmy on Jul 31, 2015 18:20:34 GMT
STAT WATCH.The stats-influenced selections for last Saturday's featured races yielded not only a winner (Besharah, 15/8), but also each-way backers may have been rewarded with the 50/1-third of Al Khan at York. In the hope of finding further winners this Saturday, let's take a look at the general form of the past week (to Monday, 27 July). The races to be featured on Channel 4 this Saturday are all on the Flat (Goodwood - 2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45 - and Newmarket - 2.15 and 2.50), so it may pay to follow mounts of Silvestre de Sousa, who rode 9 winners, pipping the 8 of William Buick, though the latter boasts a whopping 40% strike rate for the period, if just bettered by the 46% of Jack Garritty. Others to do well include Cathy Gannon (38%) and Harry Bentley (31%). The leading Flat trainers were Mark Johnston (13 wins, 38%), Richard Hannon (9 wins) and Roger Varian (6 wins, 60%). So on to Goodwood, for which Saturday is the last day of its five-day Glorious Festival. The 2.00 race is the Stewards' Sprint, a 6f handicap for those horses who don't make the cut for the Stewards' Cup. It's a little difficult to know which horses will run in either race, but stats show that the last 10 winners have all carried between 9st and 9st 10lb, with Clive Cox the most-winning trainer in that period (3 wins); Cox could saddle several in this race, with PERFECT BLESSINGS one of the least exposed horses in the race, dropping back to handicap company and has form on a range of ground. Cox's SEEKING MAGIC won this race last year, wasn't disgraced last time, and is 2lb lower than when successful 12 months ago. Peter Chapple-Hyam's DIRECT TIMES may lack the experience of some, but he's won 3 from 5 starts so far, and his trainer can place horses well. The 2.35 is a 1m 4f Class 2 handicap which could provide Saeed Bin Suroor's FUTURE EMPIRE with a good chance to get his head in front, having finished second in a Group 3 race last time, and the drop in class and a first outing in handicap company should help: two horses have won this race off top weight in the past 10 years. Another to consider is Charlie Appleby's progressive SPACE AGE , who has won over distance, and also Andrew Balding's (20% last 14 days) unexposed SCOTTISH , who has a small pull at the weights with Space Age. Goodwood's Group 1 Nassau Stakes at 3.10 looks to be at the mercy of John Gosden's STAR OF SEVILLE , who won the French Oaks last time, and arguably has the best form on offer, coupled with proven ability on ground with some cut in it (good to soft expected on Saturday). Gosden runners also have a great record in the race, though stiff opposition can be expected from Aidan O'Brien's DIAMONDSANDRUBIES , who was an unlucky fourth in the Oaks and won at this level, over this distance, last time. Top-weights have a good record in the Stewards' Cup (3.45) in recent years, and Dean Ivory's TROPICS was a good second in the Group 1 July Cup last time. He could go well on the pick of his form, as could Roger Charlton's improving HUNTSMANS CLOSE . Charlton trained the winner of this race six years ago and has a good general record at Goodwood (19%) over the past five years. The 2.15 at Newmarket is the Listed Chalice Stakes for fillies and mares, and the drop in class may help John Gosden's GRETCHEN to get her head in front, having finished fifth in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot last time. Charlie Appleby's ENDLESS TIME is on an upward curve, so the step up in class might not be a problem and confidence is increased thanks to her previous winning form on the ground and over distance. The 2.50 is a 6f fillies' nursery (for 2yo) handicap, in which Willie Haggas's TUTU NGURU has claims on her best form, with the possibility of further improvement, while Kevin Ryan's DUTCH MIST has winning form on good-soft, which may give her an edge over some of her rivals, and doesn't seem harshly treated for winning her last three starts. ========================================================== RACE RATING.3.10 Goodwood - Saturday, 1 August The Nassau Stakes (British Champion Series) (Group 1) (Fillies and Mares) 1m 1f 192y 130- Bright Approach 408 4 John Gosden This filly won a Newbury maiden in the spring of last season before finishing third in the Cheshire Oaks on her second start. Despite winning her first race very impressively, she was disappointing on her final run in the Ribblesdale. She has been off the track ever since, so it would be a massive ask for this half-sister to prolific hurdler and classy stayer Nichols Canyon to make a winning comeback. RATING 91 2-1163 Cladocera 45 4 Alain de Royer-Dupre (France) This daughter of Oasis Dream has certainly been well travelled in her short career. She won a maiden and a Listed race in France before travelling to Kempton to finish second on the all- weather. Cladocera then showed much improved form in Dubai, winning two Group 2 races over 8f and 9f. She has since finished sixth to Solow and The Grey Gatsby in the Dubai Turf in March, and third to Amazing Maria in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot (conceding 3lbs). This was a fine run, and the winner has already franked the form. RATING 96 56-157 Arabian Queen 23 3 David Elsworth David Elsworth's filly was a decent winner of the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes as a two-year-old, when making all to beat an odds-on favourite in impressive style. She ran below par afterwards, but returned to form at the Epsom Derby meeting, when making all once again in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes. Arabian Queen skipped away from the field at Epsom, down the hill, and may have been slightly flattered by the margin of her win. She may well have a contest for the lead this afternoon, but is sure to run her race, with a mid- division finish most likely. RATING 93 13141 Diamondsandrubies 34 3 Aidan O'Brien (Ireland) This filly has won the Cheshire Oaks, finished fourth in the Guineas (after nearly being knocked over) and won the Pretty Polly Stakes this year. She was impressive in the mud at Chester in May, and was running a good race in the Oaks before meeting interference, before proving she isn't just a slogger when winning the 1m 2f Group 1 at Leopardstown last time out. She was very game to make all and hold off the challenge of Legatissimo in the race, where Group 1 winner Ribbons was also finishing well on the outside. She stays very well, has pace and is a classy filly who should help set a good pace this afternoon. RATING 98 33-115 Jazzi Top 57 3 John Gosden Jazzi Top won a maiden on her third start at Kempton, before soon following up in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket over 1m 2f. Afterwards, she was deserted by Frankie Dettori in the Oaks, where she ran well to finish fifth under Will Buick, who should take the ride this afternoon. Although she wasn't involved in the barging match in the Oaks, she did meet with trouble in running, so essentially ran very well. Her pedigree suggests that today's distance is more within her range, but it is very relevant that Frankie remains loyal to Star Of Seville for this race. RATING 95 312-13 Lady Of Dubai 57 3 Luca Cumani This filly must have an excellent chance today, as she won a Listed Oaks trial on her seasonal debut and finished third in the Oaks. She avoided the traffic trouble in the big race, but looked as though a return to today's distance would be to her liking, as she only weakened as she met the rising ground. Luca Cumani has rested her for this race, so she will be one of the few fresh horses competing this afternoon. She acts on fast and soft ground so should be in the shake up, as she has more potential to improve than some of her rivals who have been campaigned more aggressively. RATING 99 41122 Legatissimo 34 3 David Wachman (Ireland) This filly has won the 1,000 Guineas and has been beaten a short-head in both the Oaks and the Pretty Polly Stakes at Leopardstown in her last three runs. She was nailed on the line at Epsom after avoiding the trouble in running, and was essentially outstayed by the very inferior Qualify at the line. She was only just denied when challenging late at Leopardstown last time out, meaning she has had three very hard races this season. There is the possibility that there could be a couple of fillies that have been saved for this race that would be inferior on ratings, but could hold the edge as they have been saved by their trainers for this race. RATING 97 44-489 Malabar 48 3 Mick Channon Won a Group 3 over 7f here last year, but has been very disappointing since, albeit at the highest level, including when unplaced in the French Oaks last time out. RATING 90 65-113 Outstanding 28 3 Aidan O'Brien This filly has won a Listed race at Naas this season and finished third in the Belmont Oaks, which was a very decent run. She proved her versatility by running so well in America, and that she can compete on either firm or soft ground. She will probably need to improve to beat the fillies with better European form, but should run well, as long as the hard race, the journey and the firm ground hasn't exhausted her too much. RATING 94 1-1191 Star Of Seville 48 3 John Gosden This daughter of Duke Of Marmalade was impressive in her build up to the Oaks, winning a conditions race on her seasonal debut, before following up in the Musidora Stakes at York, where she held off the challenge of Group 1 winning juvenile, Together Forever. In the Epsom Classic, she was the most affected of any of the fillies in the Oaks tussle, so her finishing position was irrelevant. Frankie Dettori nursed her home once her chance had gone, and was rewarded the following week, when she reappeared quickly to win the French Oaks. She slipped the field at Chantilly with a decisive run at the 2f marker, and was quite impressive. She has been rested since and must stand a great chance of adding to her Trophy cabinet this afternoon. RATING 100 22371 Wedding Vow 13 3 Aidan O'Brien (Ireland) This filly has been highly tried in her career, and was even sent off favourite for the Lingfield Derby Trial despite still being a maiden. She finished third in the Listed contest, before finishing in the rear in the Ribblesdale on her next start. Her trainer's persistence was rewarded a fortnight ago, when Wedding Vow won the Group 3 Kilboy Stud Stakes over 9f on easy ground. She defeated Brooch by 2l in the race, which suggests she has something to find, as Brooch finished well beaten in the Pretty Polly Stakes at Leopardstown the time before. She has plenty to find on the leading fillies in this race. RATING 92 ================================================ NOTEBOOK.Last Saturday RAUCOUS just got up in time to win a conditions race at Newmarket over 6f, beating the favourite, who had finished fifth in the July Stakes. Raucous had won his only other race, a match at Sandown, so had neither learned nor achieved anything in the process. The son of Dream Ahead looks destined for better things and has some decent entries for trainer, William Haggas. BUSHCRAFT was disadvantaged when racing on the wrong side of the course in the International Stakes, and should still be kept on side when returning to decent ground over 6f. Ed Walker's horse was highly impressive at Newcastle previously and deserves another chance. ROMSDAL ran well to finish third in the King George, and hinted at a return to form. He wants better ground and a longer trip. CLEVER COOKIE loves soft ground, but needs a trip in pattern-company. 4/1 was a crazy price for a horse whose winning chance was based on the ground alone. He's a classy horse, but needs his conditions to excel.
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Post by Kimmy on Aug 7, 2015 13:11:48 GMT
STAT WATCH.Last week our best result was Gretchen winning at 4/1 at Newmarket, as well as placed efforts from Tutu Nguru and Tropics, assuming your bookmaker paid out to fifth place in the Stewards' Cup. Racing doesn't look easy again this week, with Channel 4 Racing featuring Ascot's Shergar Cup (2.05, 2.40, 3.15 and 3.50), as well as action from Haydock (2.20 and 2.55) and the 3.35 from Newmarket. Last week was a successful one for Silvestre de Sousa (10 winners), who is now long odds-on for the Championship. King George-winning jockey Andrea Atzeni rode 7 winners, while Frankie Dettori rode 6 at Glorious Goodwood, where he was leading rider. Roger Varian achieved the best trainers' strike rate with 8 winners from 23 runners, while David O'Meara continued his fine form with 6 winners from 27 runners Starting with the 2.05 at Ascot, KARRAAR looks to have a great chance for William Haggas, who has trained 7 winners from 35 runners in the past fortnight. He has been raised just 3lbs for winning his last two races, including his seasonal debut at Sandown, where he needed every yard of the 1m 2f trip. PRESSURE POINT , trained by Keith Dalgleish, is worthy opposition having won at Ripon last time out. The 2.40 at Ascot is a 1m handicap, where EARTH DRUMMER catches the eye, having been campaigned mainly on the all- weather. After winning at Wolverhampton last winter, he was narrowly beaten in Dubai on his last start, and comes here a fresh horse. HEISMAN also won on the all-weather last season, and caught the eye when finishing fourth at this course over 10f last month when looking like a non-stayer. In the 3.15 at Ascot, a 1m 4f handicap, WONDER LAISH looks interesting for William Haggas. He was a 15-length winner of a maiden at Lingfield last time, having been placed on his previous two starts. SHE IS NO LADY has a very similar profile, having also made all to win by a wide margin at Carlisle last month for in-form trainer, Ralph Beckett (3/11 last week). The 3.50 at Ascot is a 6f sprint for three-year-olds. DON'T TOUCH has won all three of his starts to date and looks exciting for trainer Richard Fahey (11 winners last week). He beat higher rated horses when winning at Wolverhampton last time out, but remains surprisingly well treated at present. He had previously won at Newcastle and Haydock, so should handle the stiffer track. Clive Cox's ICE LORD was an eight-length winner of a Salisbury maiden last time and could also feature. Heading North to Haydock, the 2.20 is a 1m 2f handicap, where the well related RACING HISTORY could score for Godolphin. He was an easy winner of a Chester handicap last time, having won his maiden the time before and can emulate brothers Farhh and Basem by rising though the grades. MUQTASER has a great each- way chance for in-form Roger Varian, having finished third on both his starts this season. The 2.55 at Haydock is The Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes over 1m 2f, and can provide Varian's INTILAAQ with another opportunity to break through to the highest level. He was supplemented for the Guineas after winning his maiden this spring, and although he didn't feature at Newmarket, he was an emphatic winner at Newbury last time out. Sheikh Hamdan's other entry, MAHSOOB would have a strong chance on his Royal Ascot form, and drops back in trip today, having failed to stay the extra 2f at Newmarket's July Meeting. Our final race to discuss is the 3.35 at Newmarket, the Group 3 Sweet Solera stakes over 7f for two- year-old fillies. Mark Johnston won the race last year and looks to follow up with FIREGLOW , who sets the standard here, having won a Listed race at Sandown last time out, and had finished fourth in the Albany Stakes previously. Godolphin have won the previous five runnings of this race, and are represented here with the well related filly, BINT AL REEM . She looks on the upgrade, having won her only race over course and distance, and is open to further improvement. ============================================================ RACE RATING.2.55 Haydock - Saturday, 8 August Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) 1m2f95y 331-60 Battalion 28 5 William Haggas Faded out of contention last time, when 10th in the John Smith's Cup (handicap) at York, but previous form includes a Listed win over distance last season, which was preceded by a fair third in the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton. Has solid form but doesn't look an obvious winner, and needs to improve to have a chance against the best of these. RATING 93 31322 Canndal 35 3 M Delzangles Held-second last time in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, on only his sixth start to date, which suggests there may be further improvement to come and, as a three-year-old, does receive a weight allowance from the older horses. Expected good-soft ground should be fine, but does need to step up. RATING 96 1314-0 Clon Brulee 70 6 Saeed bin Suroor Gentle improver who has come good in recent years, progressing from decent handicaps into Group 3s by the end of last season. Didn't appear to be suited by the drop back to 7f last time, on seasonal reappearance in a Group 3 at Haydock, so return to this trip (which he has won over) should help. Has each-way claims, if improving again. RATING 95 11199 Collaboration 11 4 Andrew Balding Son of Halling who has improved 30lb or so in the past season, but just appears to have been held in decent handicaps over distance at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood on his last two starts. That may explain move into Pattern race company for the first time, over a distance and on ground that should suit, but others look more convincing. RATING 94 318664 Fattsota 36 7 David O ́Meara A solid and above-average handicapper who has done well for his stable in the past two seasons, but has been firmly held on previous occasional forays into Group 2 and Group 3 races. Distance and ground should be fine, but lacks the profile to enter serious calculations. RATING 93 123633 Fire Fighting 11 4 Mark Johnston Hardy campaigner who has won, and run well in defeat, in very good handicaps over distance this season. Pick of recent handicap form and a Listed-second last year gives him an each- way squeak in this race. RATING 96 1-90 Flaming Spear 90 3 Kevin Ryan A Lope De Vega colt who is held in some regard by connections, following a clear-cut win in a 6f York maiden last season. Arguably disappointed on both starts this season, when last in the Greenham Stakes and 11th of 18 in the French 2,000 Guineas, and has been rested since then, so improvement not entirely ruled out, and watch markets for any signs of confidence. Has a lot to prove, though. RATING 94 24-833 Longina 36 4 P Schiergen Third in the German Oaks last year, having won a Group 2 over distance the time before. Probably hasn't quite scaled those heights this season, with placed form in Group 2 and 3 races, and has enough on her plate in this contest. RATING 95 1-1116 Mahsoob 30 4 John Gosden Stable having a great season and though the progressive Mahsoob lost her unbeaten record last time, when apparently not staying 1m 4f in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket, the winner franked the form next time and the drop in class and trip should help today. RATING 99 08331 Master Carpenter 28 4 Rod Millman Interesting contender based on placed form behind Kingman in the Greenham Stakes last year, and later Group 3 win over 9f on good- soft. Returned to handicaps in recent starts after being well beaten in the Lockinge and the Jury Stakes, and won the John Smith's Cup at York last time. Has place claims on pick of form. RATING 97 2-0025 Munaaser 8 4 Sir Michael Stoute Gently progressive handicapper who has been staying on over 8f in recent outings. Connections know the time of day, and his chance is respected on this step up in grade. RATING 95 1-6236 Mustadeem 21 3 Brian Meehan Front-runner whose placed form earlier this season behind well-regarded winners reads well, though latest effort, when last behind Intilaaq, was disappointing. Assuming that run was just a bad day at the office, he makes some each way appeal. RATING 97 16-10 Not So Sleepy 51 3 Hughie Morrison Appeared not to handle the quicker ground when last in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot, but previous form on softened ground is obviously interesting in the context of this race, having won the Listed Dee Stakes over distance on soft. Unexposed and one of the likelier improvers in the field. RATING 97 0-11 Racing History 21 3 Saeed bin Suroor Straightforward winner of a 10f Chester handicap last time, on only his third start, and had won over a mile on soft the time before. Obviously heading the right way and no surprise to see him improve again in this race. RATING 96 56244 Red Galileo 48 4 Ed Dunlop Good 12f horse who was fifth in the Derby last year and has won and run well in Listed races subsequently. Has some positive form over 10f, and on the going, though has something to find with Clon Brulee when beaten by that horse at Doncaster last September. RATING 94 5-0405 Room Key 8 3 Eve Johnson Houghton A son of Mount Nelson who has looked in need of further over his last few runs over 1m this season. This looks a sensible starting point, but others have better form, leaving Room Key with quite a bit to find. RATING 93 101287 Sennockian Star 11 5 Mark Johnston Game son of Rock Of Gibraltar who has been running well in competitive 10f handicaps this summer. Has won a Listed race over distance, but general form suggests he prefers quicker ground to the expected good-soft for this race, and is more exposed than some. RATING 95 15-330 Zand 11 5 Mark Johnston Won a Listed race over distance, on soft ground, when trained in France last year. Beaten on stable debut in competitive 10f handicap at Goodwood last time and was maybe unsuited by the slightly quicker ground. RATING 93 3-101 Intilaaq 21 3 Roger Varian Won the 10f Listed Steventon Stakes at Newbury last time by a clear margin, having probably been outpaced in the 2,000 Guineas the time before, but had won a 1m Newbury maiden on seasonal debut by an easy eight lengths. In short, he looks highly progressive and in need of this sort of trip. Has only run on good-firm ground so far, so expected good-soft is a question mark, but otherwise looks highly progressive and should go well, given his three-year-old weight allowance. RATING 100 ==================================================== RACING NEWS.Amazing Maria won her second consecutive Group 1, when winning the Prix Rothschild at Deauville last week. The Mastercraftsman filly has now won her last three races, having started her winning run at Royal Ascot, when returning to the best of her two-year-old form to win the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at 25/1. At Deauville, she was the first filly to beat fellow Royal Ascot winner Ervedya this season. Connor Beasley has been visiting racecourses and trainers that he rides for after leaving hospital following horrific injuries received in a fall at Wolverhampton last month. He fractured his skull, neck and vertebrae when clipping heels, and is currently wearing an extensive brace, which supports his back and neck. Thankfully, he is expected to make a full recovery from his injuries. American Pharaoh coasted to yet another win in the $1.75million Haskell International at Monmouth Park last weekend. The Bob Baffert-trained colt was hardly out of third gear as he justified his 1/10 price to beat six rivals on a fast dirt surface, having completed the US Triple Crown by winning the Preakness Stakes back in June. Andrea Atzeni is contemplating appealing an eight-day ban, which rules him out of York's Ebor Festival, after allegedly finishing a race on a lame horse. The ban is in addition to a previous whip ban, which rules the Sicilian out of action from 8-21 August. Trainer of the horse in question, Amanda Perrett, has branded the disciplinary action 'appalling', and was perfectly happy that her horse had been looked after properly during the race, as she was allowed to come home in her own time. The Charlie Hills-trained Magical Memory became the first three-year-old since Danetime in 1997 to win the Stewards' Cup at Glorious Goodwood. He was given a superb ride by Frankie Dettori, who found a gap against the far rail after breaking from stall 1. The son of Zebedee looks set for a step up in class after his second successive emphatic victory, earning Dettori the leading rider's award for the week after a stunning six wins. Richard Hughes did not have a winner on his final day as a jockey at Goodwood, but did receive accolades and a guard of honour from his fellow riders, as he now embarks on a training career. Bookmakers have offered just 5/1 for Hughes to train a Group 1 winner before the end of the year. The legendary race commentator, Sir Peter O'Sullevan has died, aged 97. 'The Voice of Racing' began his career with the BBC in 1946, and retired over 50 years later, after calling home Suny Bay to win the 1997 Hennessy Gold Cup. He was knighted that year, having been awarded an OBE and a CBE previously. He has called home some of the greatest races in living memory, including Red Rum's three Grand Nationals and cancer- sufferer Bob Champion winning the race in 1981 on Aldaniti. Dubday became the first Qatar-trained horse to win in Britain, as racing operation Al Shaqab's horse won the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last week. Trainer, Jassim Al Ghazali, looks set to bring around 30 horses to race in Britain next year after the success he has enjoyed this season, supported by Al Shaqab’s owner Sheikh Joaan Al Thani. Group 1 regulars Solow and Legatissimo added to their seasonal hauls with wins in the Sussex and Nassau Stakes respectively. Solow was winning his eighth consecutive race, and was declared 'the best I've ridden' by rider, Maxime Guyon. Legatissimo was partnered by Wayne Lordan, replacing the injured Ryan Moore, having ridden the filly throughout the early part of her career. She was gaining a deserved success, having just failed in the Oaks and Pretty Polly Stakes previously.
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Post by Kimmy on Aug 14, 2015 14:01:57 GMT
STAT WATCH.Not many of our selections ran last week, with just five making it to the track. Intilaaq won at 1/3, which was quite disappointing considering the competitive entries, and Earth Drummer and Fireglow both running well to finish second. This week, there are eight races scheduled on Channel 4 Racing, including the 1.40, 2.15 and 2.50 races from Newmarket, as well as the 2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45 at Newbury and Ripon's feature, The Great St. Wilfrid Handicap at 3.30. Last week Sir Mark Prescott returned a typically high strike rate with 6 winners from 9 runners, which has helped his jockey, Luke Morris to top the leader-board with 7 wins from 32 rides. Charlie Appleby (25%) and William Haggas (27%) both trained 4 winners last week, whilst Roger Varian (3/12) and John Gosden (3/6) also continued their tremendous seasons. Hard working jockeys Jim Crowley (8 wins), Danny Tudhope (7), Adam Kirby (7), Joe Fanning, George Baker and Martin Harley (6 wins each) all had a great week too. Starting at Newmarket, the 1.40 is a 7f Nursery race, which is a handicap for 2-year-olds. DUTCH HEIRESS has won her last two races for Sir Mark Prescott on both fast and soft ground. She races from the same handicap mark that she won from at Musselburgh just eight days ago and could keep improving. HOLY GRAIL won a similar race here two weeks ago, and is stepping up from 6f today. She is by Canford Cliffs, so should appreciate the extra distance and could combat an 8lb rise in the weights. The 2.15 is the novelty handicap race for grey horses only, where STEVE PRESCOTT represents the prolific Richard Fahey stable (7 winners last week), having won over course and distance last week, beating the consistent Meshardal. CREW CUT is the next best, having also won over course and distance in July and is up just 5lbs. He has been running well all season and comes here fresh. The 2.50 is another 6f handicap, where Roger Varian's QUEEN'S PEARL looks very appealing. She has won twice this season, including a conclusive 6-length win at Nottingham last time out. She looks ready for pattern races, and also won over course and distance back in July. DON'T TOUCH (R. Fahey) has won all three of his starts, and really caught the eye against better opposition at Wolverhampton last time. He is proven on a stiff track and could provide the toughest opposition. Moving to Newbury, the 2.35 is the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes over 1m 5f, where ROMSDAL (J. Gosden) catches the eye after his excellent third in the King George. He finished second in the St Leger last season, so is certain to stay the extra furlong, with any softening of the ground likely to suit. GOSPEL CHOIR made a belated return to action this year after injury, narrowly beating Dubday first time out, before finishing third at the July Meeting to the revitalised Big Orange. He is a proven stayer also, having won the Yorkshire Cup last year. The 3.10 at Newbury is a 7f handicap and looks an ideal opportunity for MISTRUSTING to win a valuable prize. He failed by 1¼ lengths to concede 3lbs to subsequent Stewards' Cup winner, Magical Memory, at Leicester on his last run back in May, which looks excellent form now. He is a fresh horse and looks particularly well in for Charlie Appleby. Andrew Balding's GUIDING LIGHT has been in great form recently and can chase him home, after excelling at a lower level. The 3.45 at Newbury is the Hungerford Stakes, where HOME OF THE BRAVE can continue Hugo Palmer's excellent season. He looked superb when winning in Ireland last time, and will appreciate any rain to fall. John Gosden's SIR RICHARD PANKHURST hasn't run since winning the Chesham Stakes last year, and could chase him home, but is surely going to improve for the run, and could develop into a top-class horse one day. Finally, Ripon's feature race is the Great St Wilfrid Stakes at 3.30. David O'Meara's FLYMAN won his last race over course and distance 12 days ago, and remains untouched by the handicapper at present. He will appreciate any ease in the ground for his top stable. DON'T TOUCH is also entered in this race, and should run well, if Richard Fahey considers this race the better option. ===================================================== RACE RATING.Race Ratings 3.45 Newbury - Saturday, 15 August Betfred Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) 7 6-1113 Safety Check 18 4 Charlie Appleby This horse ran well when returning to Britain by finishing third in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last time. He had been successful over the winter in Dubai, and looks to have a decent future in Britain based on his last run, when finishing very well. RATING 94 213-77 Breton Rock 77 5 David Simcock He was a prolific horse last season, and also won this race last year. He finished behind Toormore and Here Comes When over 1m in the Lockinge, and hasn't been seen since. He loves soft ground, but hasn't hit form yet this season. RATING 92 2-3513 Cable Bay 35 4 Charles Hills Ran well in the Lockinge here over a mile, then won next time out at Haydock over 7f. Ran well to finish third to Arod in the Summer Stakes at Ascot, proving his versatility. He doesn't win very often, but usually runs well. RATING 94 221-18 Coulsty 6 4 Richard Hannon Won a 6f Group 3 at Deauville last autumn, and a Leicester Listed race on his reappearance over 7f. He was disappointing in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last weekend, so this may come a bit quickly for him. RATING 85 555563 Emell 28 5 Richard Hannon Emell won at Haydock in April, but has been generally unplaced since. He finished third over course and distance a few weeks ago, but is unlikely to get involved in the finish today. RATING 80 21-278 Glory Awaits 60 5 Kevin Ryan Finished a close second to Tullius on his seasonal debut at the Lincoln meeting, but has run poorly twice since. His personal best was when winning a Turkish Group 2 last year, when Toormore started long odds-on. Needs to improve for the drop back to 7f. RATING 90 101931 Heaven's Guest 21 5 Richard Fahey He has won twice already this year over 7f. He loves cut in the ground and looked very tough when winning the International Stakes at Ascot last time out. He deserves a step up in grade and has a chance if it keeps raining. RATING 92 1-2674 Here Comes When 17 5 Andrew Balding He won three races last year, and hinted at a return to form when finishing fourth in the Sussex Stakes last time out. Loves soft ground and is proven at this level. RATING 94 320300 Lincoln 15 4 Mick Channon Boasts a disappointing profile for a talented horse. His best run of the year came when finishing third at Newmarket after lumbering out of the stalls. He won two handicaps at the end of 2014, but isn't up to winning this, we would suspect. RATING 88 211-64 Majestic Mount 42 5 Rod Collet (France) He has run from 5 to 7 ½ f, winning two races at Deauville at the end of 2014. He was not beaten far in a Group 3 at Longchamp last time out, but needs to improve to feature. RATING 87 5181-2 Sloane Avenue 140 4 Jeremy Noseda He won a Listed race at Kempton last November, beating the useful French filly, Cladocera, in the process. He was narrowly beaten by Tamarkuz in Dubai in the spring, proving himself to be very useful indeed. He is unproven on turf and over 7f, however, which makes him difficult to fancy for this particular race. RATING 90 0-0166 This Is The Spirit 49 4 David O'Meara He won a 7f Listed race at Haydock in May, but has been disappointed behind Cable Bay and Aeolus since. Needs to improve, despite the O'Meara bandwagon gaining increasing momentum. RATING 87 33-251 Toormore 18 4 Richard Hannon Toormore sets the standard for this race, having won the Craven and Lennox Stakes, as well as being placed in the QEII and Lockinge Stakes. He was a gutsy winner at Goodwood last time, beating Dutch Connection, but may struggle to repel the younger horses this afternoon. RATING 98 7344-1 Windfast 28 4 Brian Meehan Won a maiden as a 2-y-o, and then drew a blank the following year, before coming back to form when winning a 7f handicap over course and distance last month. He could be on the upgrade, and looks a little unexposed. RATING 95 3-3117 Adaay 57 3 William Haggas He won a Listed race and the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock in May, beating Limato. This would be his first attempt at 7f, with his pedigree boasting a strong speed bias. He was Paul Hanagan's choice over Muharaar in the Commonwealth Cup, however. RATING 91 46-171 Convergence 58 3 Ger Lyons He has won two races this year, including a Listed race at Dundalk (on the all-weather), where he beat War Envoy. He ran respectably in the Irish Guineas, before winning a Group 3 at Leopardstown. He is tough and improving. RATING 93 114-20 Estidhkaar 105 3 Richard Hannon He was a useful 2-y-o that was narrowly beaten by Muharaar in the Greenham Stakes over course and distance, before disappointing in the Guineas. He has not run since, but must go close on his form in the spring, assuming he is fit and well enough to perform at his best. RATING 96 11-122 Limato 57 3 Henry Candy Won his first five races, including two Listed races and a Group 3 race, before finishing second to Adaay at Haydock and Muharaar at Royal Ascot. He is a very classy horse that is only suited by fast ground, but has been trained to improve. Has a pedigree that suggests that 7f may be within his range. RATING 95 2-4341 Markaz 49 3 Barry Hills Had proved to be a 'nearly horse,' prior to winning at Newmarket last time out. He won a weak Group 3 at Newmarket in June, and needs to show plenty of improvement to win this. RATING 91 41- Sir Richard Pankhurst 420 3 John Gosden Stepped up on his maiden race fourth-place to win the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, beating a subsequent Group 1 winner. He has been unraced since, presumably due to injury, but has a lofty reputation to fulfil, and has to start somewhere. He clearly has an engine, and could be anything. RATING 99 21417 Tupi 18 3 Richard Hannon Has enjoyed a really good year, winning two races over 7f and a mile. He ran well to finish fourth in the Jersey Stakes, but disappointed at Goodwood recently behind Toormore. Useful, but not quite top class and may struggle to feature. RATING 93 247014 War Envoy 49 3 Aidan O'Brien Had been really disappointing until winning the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot. He has been beaten since then, though, and his lack of consistency makes him difficult to fancy here, despite apparent ability. RATING 91 3-5211 Ainippe 41 3 Ger Lyons Useful filly that continues on the upgrade, having won her last two races. She enjoyed the step up to 7f last time out, when winning a Group 3 at Fairyhouse, suggesting that she can feature at a higher level. She is versatile regarding ground and should finish in the first six if she continues to improve as expected. RATING 97 3-1661 Home Of The Brave 27 3 Hugo Palmer This horse won the Free Handicap in the spring, before finishing sixth in both the 2,000 Guineas and the Commonwealth Cup. He was mightily impressive in a Group 3 in Ireland last time, when 7f seemed to bring out the best in him. He is a late maturing horse that could excel this afternoon. RATING 100 =============================================== RACING NEWS.Rising star apprentice Sammy-Jo Bell won the Silver Saddle award at last week's Shergar Cup at Ascot after riding two winners at the meeting. She also helped to win the trophy for the girls' team, captained by Canadian rider, Emily-Jayne Wilson, who also rode a winner. Bell received a late call-up to join the team, as Cathy Gannon had failed to recover from injuries sustained last month. Sammy-Jo Bell has ridden 24 winners this season, mainly for her boss, Richard Fahey. AP McCoy is to set to return to the saddle in the Leger Legends Race at Doncaster next month, alongside the likes of Johnny Murtagh and Kevin Darley. Now working as an adviser to JP McManus, McCoy is set to help raise funds for the Northern Racing College and Jack Berry House, the northern jockeys' rehabilitation facility. The race has so far raised over £500,000 in donations over the past five years. Ruby Walsh was another jockey to receive a late booking, this time for the winner, Bashboy, in the Australian Grand National at Ballarat. The twelve-year-old has now become the first jumper in Australia to win over $1m, and the first since 1957 to win with the top weight of 74.5 kg (11st 10lbs). Walsh was replacing the banned Steve Pateman, who usually rides Bashboy, who was unable to reduce a careless riding suspension on appeal. Fast ground specialist, Gleneagles, looks set to take on the top French miler, Territories, in next week's Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville. Godolphin's Territories finished second to Gleneagles in the 2,000 Guineas, and has since beaten the Jersey Stakes winner, Dutch Connection, in the Prix Jean Prat. Should Gleneagles run at Deauville, he will miss a possible clash with Golden Horn in York's Juddmonte International Stakes. French Derby winner, New Bay, is due to reappear in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano the day before the Prix Jacques Le Marois. Roger Charlton has announced that his stable star, Al Kazeem, has been retired having failed to recover sufficiently from an injury sustained in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. The horse was in training for an autumn campaign, but connections have called time on his illustrious career to prevent any further injury to the horse. He won ten of his 23 races, including two Tattersalls Gold Cups (beating the likes of Camelot, The Grey Gatsby, and Postponed), the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Eclipse at Sandown. He will now stand at his owner's Oakgrove Stud in Wales, for a second stint as a stallion. Charlton declared winning with Al Kazeem, having returned from stud, as "the greatest training feat of my career, yet he made it so easy for me." Muharaar has become the first British-trained horse in 25 years to win three successive Group 1 sprints, after his Prix Maurice de Gheest victory at Deauville last weekend. Trainer Charlie Hills has suggested that the horse was especially suited by the 6 ½ f distance, and that he may venture over a mile once again, as he may be tempted into running in the Breeders' Cup Mile later in the year. Michael Dickinson is to return to training in America, having taken time out to concentrate on developing his equestrian surface business, Tapeta. He was famed for training twelve winners in a day, on Boxing Day, 1982, as well as saddling the first five horses home in the 1983 Cheltenham Gold Cup, headed by Bregawn. Since then, he trained the fragile Da Hoss to win two Breeders' Cups, as well as the talented Tapit. The 65-year-old feels he is at an advantage, training from his remote Maryland base, as horseracing in America, like him, is beginning to increasingly favour an anti-doping policy.
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Post by Kimmy on Aug 21, 2015 13:16:34 GMT
STAT WATCH.Last Friday's torrential rain made finding winners last weekend pretty tricky, as the ground led to there being many non-runners across the country. Although not many of our selections ran last week, only one horse finished out of the frame. Don't Touch won the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at 4/1, while Crew Cut was second at 6/1, with Steve Prescott (the horse!) third at 5/1. There are 7 races shown live on Channel 4 Racing this weekend, all detailed below. Joe Fanning has continued his excellent form with 9 winners from 26 rides last week, sharing the bulk of the Mark Johnston rides with Silvestre de Sousa (8/35). Richard Hannon's jockeys Pat Dobbs (7/28) and Sean Levey (5/17) are benefitting from Richard Hughes' absence at present and enjoying their new roles in the prolific stable. Trainers Charlie Appleby (6/18) and William Haggas (5/18) have enjoyed good weeks, along with Aidan O'Brien (4/13). Starting at Sandown, Roger Charlton's TEMPTRESS looks set to go well in the 1.45, a Group 3 race for fillies and mares over a mile. She won a competitive handicap at Ascot in May, followed by a close second in the Royal Hunt Cup. She ran below-par last time out at Pontefract, which was not unusual for horses who had a hard race at the Royal meeting. ROXY STAR also deserves another chance, having impressed at Nottingham and Ascot this season, before disappointing at Haydock. The 2.15 at Sandown is the Solario Stakes, a Group 3 for juveniles, and has been won in the past by John Gosden's former champions Kingman and Raven's Pass. He bids to improve his record with FOUNDATION , who won his maiden at Haydock last time. Hugo Palmer won the race last year with the useful Aktabantay and could run THEY SEEK HIM THERE , who showed inexperience when finishing fourth in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes last time out. The 2.50 race is a 1m 2f handicap, where Godolphin's RACING HISTORY catches the eye. He has won 2 races this season and impressed at Chester last time when starting slowly, suggesting he is ready for the step up in class. REMBRANDT VAN RIJN has won all 4 of his races this season, and looked as though he hasn't yet reached his peak at Haydock last time out. The 2.00 at York is a Group 3 over 1m 1f, and could be a good opportunity for MAHSOOB to resume winning ways. He clearly failed to stay 1m 4f in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at the July Meeting last time out, having won the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot previously. RACING HISTORY also has this race as an option and is next best. The 2.35 at York is over the Ebor's trip of 1m 6f for 3-year-olds. William Haggas's DAWN MISSILE impressed when winning at Haydock last time out and can continue to progress as he steps up in trip. OUTSPOKEN could continue Aidan O'Brien's fine form by chasing him home, having looked decent when winning at Dundalk last time out. The Gimcrack Stakes at 3.10 is a 6f Group 2 race for juveniles, and could provide the brilliant SHALAA with another opportunity. John Gosden's colt has won the July Stakes and the Richmond Stakes in scintillating fashion on his last two starts and looks a potential sprinting superstar. RAUCOUS could provide some each-way value, as he looks to be going the right way. The final televised race at York is the Ebor Handicap at 3.45. The Irish have a decent record in the race (3 wins in 10 years) and are represented by CLONDAW WARRIOR and QUICK JACK . The former won the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting over 2m 4f, but showed his versatility last time out when winning at Galway over 1m 4f. He is clearly in great shape and is very used to these ultra- competitive handicaps, just like Quick Jack, who won the Galway Hurdle last time, having also finished second to Trip To Paris in the Chester Cup and third, beaten less than a length, in the Cesarewitch in the last 12 months. Finally, the 3.30 at Chester could provide the back- to-form COMINO with a follow-up win for Kevin Ryan. He was a consistent horse last year, but then needed time to drop in the handicap before scoring at Thirsk last time. He has been given another chance by the handicapper on 81, having gone up 4lb for his latest win. FLASH FIRE for Charlie Appleby is next best, having won at Sandown and finished second at Newmarket already this season. ========================================= RACE RATING.1:45 Sandown - Saturday, 22 August Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+) 1m 14y 4-1217 Angel Vision 43 3 Sir Michael Stoute Disappointed last time, when dropped back in trip to 7f at this course, and looked as though she got hot in the preliminaries. If ignoring that run, her previous form looked progressive and suggests that she's one on the upgrade who deserves a chance in this sort of company. From respected stable that knows the time of day in these races and has an each way shout according to the pick of her form. RATING 95 -0115 Black Cherry 49 3 Richard Hannon Progressive Mount Nelson filly who won a Class 4 handicap over course and distance two starts ago, and wasn't disgraced when a three-length fifth in a Listed race last time, also over course and distance. Still looks to have some work to do, though. RATING 94 0211 Blond Me 49 3 Andrew Balding Progressive Tamayuz filly who last time out won the Listed race in which Black Cherry finished fifth. Clearly held in regard by connections, as she has a Group 1 entry in hand, and it looks likely that there's more to come and she should be thereabouts, if maintaining her upward curve. RATING 98 21-144 Bold Lass 14 4 David Lanigan Has won four of her 10 starts to date, though wins have come in maiden and handicap races and her last two starts, in Group 3 and Listed company, have been respectable rather than remarkable. Goes well at right-handed courses which have some accent on stamina (Leicester and Ascot, for instance), and maybe didn't have the rub of the green last time. Still needs to step up to the bar, though, and others arguably less exposed. RATING 96 65-321 Evita Peron 29 4 Ralph Beckett Listed winner over distance last time, who seems to like some juice in the ground, so any rain would surely help the cause of this daughter of Pivotal. However, does seem to handle good going, and looks one of the main players on her best form. RATING 100 41458 Gratzie 22 4 Mick Channon Worthy daughter of Three Valleys who prospered in handicaps earlier this season, winning a Class 2 at Epsom's Derby meeting off a mark of 83 (third win at that course), but has since been held in Listed and Group 3 races and looks up against it in this race. RATING 91 8-1147 Lady Dutch 91 4 Marco Botti Won a Listed race over distance at Kempton on her seasonal debut, but has since been firmly held in Group 2 races at Newmarket and the Curragh. Ground and distance should be fine, and while she comes here fresh after a short break and is dropping in class, she looks a candidate for a place, rather than the win. RATING 96 1133 Molly Dolly 29 3 Sir Mark Prescott Bt Lightly-raced Exceed And Excel filly who was beaten two lengths by Evita Peron when getting 8lb from that filly last time in a Listed race at Ascot. Won't meet Evita Peron on quite such favourable terms today, but is open to improvement. Has a chance of being placed. RATING 97 2-6223 Montalcino 22 3 Brian Meehan Runner-up in Newbury's Listed Oaks trial in May, over 10f, but has since been placed in Listed and Group 3 races at 1m and 7f respectively. Has been put up 4lb for her third in the Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood last time, and as she is officially the top-rated three-year- old, is entitled to major respect in the context of this race, given that she'll get 6lb from the older fillies and mares. RATING 99 456195 Nakuti 14 4 Sylvester Kirk Beat Gratzie when winning a 1m Pontefract Listed race for fillies in June. Not beaten far on seasonal debut in a Listed race at Leicester, by the useful winner, Coulsty, who was second in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last Saturday. Solid enough form, but probably a little short of what is required in this race. RATING 95 41-635 Pelerin 14 4 Marco Botti Won a Listed race over distance at Dundalk, at the backend of last season, and recent form has been fair, if not suggestive of obvious win claims in this race. Held by Nakuti when third to that filly at Pontefract and behind Realtra and Bold Lass in a Listed race at Haydock a fortnight ago. RATING 94 13501 Realtra 14 3 Roger Varian Beat Bold Lass and Pelerin when landing a Listed race at Haydock two weekends ago, on her first start for this yard, which has been going well of late. If maintaining that form, she could go well at an attractive price. RATING 98 1-118 Roxy Star 14 3 William Haggas Unbeaten in three starts in maidens and handicaps prior to her flop when tried in a Listed race at Haydock last time, won by Realtra. Can't be written off at this early stage, and given that stable know the time of day, the fact she has entry in this race is a measure of the confidence and regard in which they view her. RATING 96 22092 Solar Magic 29 4 John Gosden Handles a variety of ground and twice placed in Listed races to date, but finished behind others in those races and another, a valuable handicap at Ascot, who may line up here; Temptress, Evita Peron and Lady Dutch. Needs to raise her game to have her chance at a higher grade in this race. RATING 95 2-2425 Talmada 34 4 Roger Varian Has acquitted herself well in Listed, Group 2 and Group 3 races over 10f+ this season, and Sandown's stiff mile may well help bring out her stamina, so expect her to attempt to make all over this reduced distance. She will be giving weight to the three-year-old fillies, though, and a couple of those have run nearly as well as her this season, and are still open to more improvement. RATING 99 16-126 Temptress 46 4 Roger Charlton Smart-looking daughter of Shirocco who under-performed when sixth in the Pontefract Listed race won by Nakuti. Can be excused one bad run, having shown very progressive form previously, including when second in the Royal Hunt Cup, and winning a Class 2 handicap at Ascot on her seasonal debut. If back to form here, could go close. RATING 98 289102 Teosroyal 16 3 Clive Brittain Daughter of Teofilo who won a Chepstow maiden over distance three starts ago but was then apparently outclassed in a 1m Listed race at Sandown the time after. Second on latest start came in a Class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton, and looks a probable backmarker. RATING 89 86232 Wiener Valkyrie 14 3 Ed Walker Daughter of Shamardal who came good last time when finishing second at 100/1 to Realtra in a Listed race at Haydock. That was a massive improvement on her previous form, having run consistently in Class 4 and 5 handicaps, and may be due to the first-time blinkers in which she ran at Haydock, but she has to confirm that form this time around, and that's not certain. RATING 94 65-321 Evita Peron 29 4 Ralph Beckett Listed winner over distance last time, who seems to like some juice in the ground, so any rain would surely help the cause of this daughter of Pivotal. However, does seem to handle good going, and looks one of the main players on her best form. RATING 100 ===================================== RACING NEWS.Channel 4 Racing's Tanya Stevenson is to join the Horseracing Bettors Forum, set up by the BHA to provide punters with a route of communication between themselves and horseracing management. Stevenson is working with eight fellow members on the project, who offer the service to nine million punters betting on British horseracing every year. Jamie Spencer and Ralph Beckett are considering an appeal after Secret Gesture was demoted from first to third place in the Beverly D Stakes at Arlington, Chicago, last weekend. Spencer's mount drifted slightly in the last 50 yards, causing Irad Ortiz to snatch up in exuberant style aboard Stephanie's Kitten, despite Secret Gesture being more than a length clear at the time. Ortiz was beaten a neck by the second-placed horse to finish third, which led to Secret Gesture being placed third, as she was seen to have cost Ortiz second place. Spencer compared Ortiz's inappropriate riding to 'taking a dive' in football, with even local jockeys left perplexed by the stewards' intervention. The 2014 2,000 Guineas winner, Night Of Thunder, has been retired by owners Godolphin to join Darley Stud. Unbeaten as a juvenile, Night Of Thunder defeated the otherwise unbeaten Kingman at Newmarket in the Guineas, before adding to his Group 1 tally by winning the Lockinge on his seasonal reappearance. The chestnut colt has been retired having run below par behind Solow on his last two starts. Yarmouth Racecourse is set to begin their racing season after a period of redevelopment work. The course has been improved after trainers had complained of patchy ground in recent years, but the venue has now passed a BHA inspection and will recommence racing at the end of the month. Trainer Chris Wall had been a harsh critic of the ground in the past, but took horses to gallop at the course last Sunday, and was pleased with the result of the work. The course is endeavouring to return to its former glory years, when the likes of Dubai Millennium raced there in 1998. Richard Fahey's Don't Touch became the first three-year-old for sixteen years to win the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon, to the delight of favourite-backers last weekend. The gelding is now unbeaten in four races, and was not upset by the rain-softened ground, which led to seven horses not participating in the feature handicap. He now heads to the Ayr Gold Cup, with a career in Group races seemingly on the cards. Jockey Andrew McNamara won on his last ride at Tramore last week, as the 32-year-old is set to embark on a career as a trainer. McNamara has enjoyed big-race success on The Listener, Beef Or Salmon, New Mill and Sizing Europe in the past ten years, and won over €1m in prize- money in 2010/11. Newcastle Racecourse has been granted 37 fixtures for its proposed all-weather track in 2016. Nationwide fixtures will rise slightly next year, with the divide being roughly 40% Flat, 40% Jumping and 20% all-weather racing. French Derby runner-up, Highland Reel, won the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington last weekend under Seamie Heffernan, franking the form of last week's Deauville Group 2 winner, New Bay, his conqueror at Chantilly. New Bay's trainer, Andre Fabre, also enjoyed a 1-2 in the Prix Jacques le Marois, with the consistent Esoterique beating the more fancied Prix Jean Prat winner, Territories, in rain-softened ground. Esoterique had previously finished second to top miler, Solow, at Royal Ascot and top sprinter, Muharaar, just a week before in the Prix Maurice de Gheest.
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Post by Kimmy on Aug 28, 2015 13:38:41 GMT
STAT WATCH.There were a few non-runners for Staxxxxch last weekend, with our best results coming from placed horses Raucous (17/2) and Outspoken (6/1). The rain-softened ground could make life tricky this weekend also, with even more rain forecast through the week. There are 7 races scheduled live on Channel 4 Racing this Saturday, starting with the 2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45 at Goodwood, as well as the 2.20 at Beverley and the 2.50 and 3.25 from Newmarket. William Haggas enjoyed a great week at York, and trained 7 winners altogether in as many days at a 30% strike rate. Richard Fahey (8/48) and Richard Hannon (6/49) have been as prolific as ever, while Keith Dalgleish's northern yard (4/16) has also been a force to reckoned with. William Buick was the most successful jockey last week (7/25), while northern-based jockeys Jack Garritty (5/19), Fergal Lynch (5/19) and Freddie Tylicki (5/15) have been in excellent touch. Starting with Goodwood, the 2.00 is a Group 3 for 2-year-old fillies over 7f. FIREGLOW represents Mark Johnston's powerful stable and has the best pattern-race form available. She finished second in a Group 3 race last time out, having won the Solario Stakes at Sandown on her previous outing. She sets the standard, while William Haggas's TUTU NGURU finished a close second in a competitive nursery at Newmarket last time out when conceding 9lbs to the winner, so is a worthy next best selection. The 2.35 is a 7f handicap and could provide MR WIN with an ideal hat-trick opportunity. Chris Wall's horse has been the narrow winner of two handicaps at Newmarket recently, which has meant the handicapper has been unusually generous, raising him just 6lbs for the victories. Lady Cecil's WESTERN RESERVE proved what a good horse he can be when making all to win at Newmarket's July Meeting, and could run well again if allowed to dominate. The 3.10 is the Listed March Stakes over 1m 6f, and can provide FUN MAC with consolation for his narrow defeat in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Meeting. Trainer Hughie Morrison was in great form last week, with 3 winners from his small string. Sir Michael Stoute's GOSPEL CHOIR always has to be respected in races like this, having won the Yorkshire Cup over this distance last year, but wouldn't want too much rain. The 3.45 at Goodwood is the Celebration Mile, a Group 2 race, where the unexposed KODI BEAR could continue to enhance his claims as a leading miler. He was successful last time out at Salisbury on easy ground, looking impressive despite veering across the course inside the final furlong. LIGHTNING SPEAR is another on the upgrade, having been highly tried on his last two starts and could chase him home. The 2.20 at Beverley is a Listed sprint race, and POLYBIUS catches the eye after his narrow defeat at Doncaster last time out, having run well in the Wokingham Handicap previously. He is dropping back to a stiff five furlongs today, but travels well and should cope with some ease in the ground. MAAREK is a standing-dish at a higher grade than this, and has enjoyed a lighter campaign than usual, presumably while he waits for his favoured soft ground. This veteran has been an excellent sprinter over the years and always deserves respect. Finally, at Newmarket, the 2.50 is a 1m 5f handicap, where Keith Dalgleish's PRESSURE POINT could gain compensation for missing the cut at York last week. He has enjoyed a successful season, winning at Musselburgh recently over a similar distance, and has been reasonably treated by the handicapper, as he never wins by very far. William Haggas's SATELLITE showed much improved form on a soft surface last time at Newbury and could go well if it keeps raining. The 3.25 is a Listed race over 6f and is the first foray into pattern company for the brilliant handicapper MAGICAL MEMORY , who won here at the July Meeting, before coasting home in the Stewards' Cup under an excellent ride from Frankie Dettori. He should be hard to beat, and escapes any penalties. Richard Hannon's COULSTY was only just beaten by Adaay in the Hungerford Stakes last time, and remains slightly unexposed. He should cope with the drop back to 6f, having won over 5f as a juvenile. ============================================= RACE RATINGS.3.45 Goodwood - Saturday, 29 August Doom Bar Celebration Mile (Group 2) (3yo+) 1m 215402 Baltry Boys 35 6 Brian Ellison Baltry Boys deserves plenty of respect, having won a handicap in the spring at Newmarket off a mark of 102, and finished in the first four twice at Ascot this season. He finished fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup in June, before finishing runner-up in the International Stakes at the same course, despite dropping back to 7f on soft ground. His best form is at a mile and arguably in handicap-company, but he is a tough horse that is proven to act on a soft surface. RATING 95 13-773 Breton Rock 14 5 David Simcock Breton Rock boasted a very consistent profile prior to the start of this year, when he ran below- par twice in the spring. Previously, he had hardly finished out of the first three, including in Group and Listed company, proving much more effective on soft ground. He hinted at a return to form in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last time out on testing ground, but that race was over his optimum distance of 7f. He is a decent horse in this company, but is not quite as proven over a mile. RATING 94 35134 Cable Bay 14 4 Charles Hills Cable Bay has been running well in these sort of races all year, with the highlight being a Group 3 win at Haydock in May. He is a very reliable horse that is likely to finish in the first four, but may find one or two too good on this softer surface today. RATING 93 0-5006 Captain Cat 16 6 Roger Charlton Captain Cat has not enjoyed the most successful season of his career, with his best run coming when finishing fifth on the all- weather at Lingfield in March. He needs to show massive improvement to figure in this race today. RATING 90 2-0335 Fire Ship 34 6 William Knight Fire Ship has been a decent horse in the past, but has not won a race for two years. His last win came in a Group 3 at Deauville, and he has since chased home the likes of Solow and Custom Cut, but does not seem in good enough form to beat the younger, more improving horses this afternoon. RATING 91 203336 Gabrial 7 6 Richard Fahey Gabrial is certainly worthy of respect, having won the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap back in March. He ran his best race to date when finishing third in the Sussex Stakes over today's course and distance in July. His run behind Solow and Arod certainly gives him a chance, although he has had plenty of racing this season already, and ran just last week at York in soft ground. RATING 96 3-2024 Hors De Combat 49 4 James Fanshawe Hors De Combat is a decent horse at this level, but has missed a couple of intended starts recently on account of the soft ground. He was a beaten favourite in a weak Group 3 at Newmarket in June, but ran well next time out to finish fourth to Arod and Lightning Spear in the Summer Mile at Ascot the following month. That form would give him ground to make up on Lightning Spear, with any more rain not helping his chances. RATING 92 1-1124 Lightning Spear 13 4 Olly Stevens Lightning Spear won his first four races, albeit aged between two and four, before stepping up in grade more recently. After winning a handicap at Lingfield in the spring and a similar race at Salisbury off a mark of 96, Lightning Spear then chased home Arod in the Summer Mile at Ascot. This was a decent first attempt at Group level, which he improved upon again when finishing fourth to Esoterique in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville just under two weeks ago. This lightly raced horse is now proven on fast and soft ground, and seems the most likely to give Kodi Bear something to think about here. RATING 99 3-7122 Dutch Connection 32 3 Charles Hills Dutch Connection has enjoyed a decent year, winning the Jersey Stakes at the Royal Meeting, before chasing home Andre Fabre's Territories in the Prix Jean Prat and Toormore in the Lennox Stakes over 7f here in July. Barring his run in France, all his best form seems at 7f, suggesting that this may not be his day to shine. He is a class act, however, and is worthy of respect based on his recent form. RATING 98 12-141 Kodi Bear 16 3 Clive Cox Kodi Bear was a decent two-year-old, winning a Listed race and finishing second in the Dewhurst to Belardo at the end of the season. He made his belated start to the year at Windsor at the end of June when winning a Listed race over a mile, beating Gabrial in the process. His trainer then thought enough of him to run him in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat, but he contested a fight for the lead with Full Mast and Aktabantay, which set the race up for Territories, who was dropped out off the fast pace. He confirmed the promise of this decent run when winning the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury last time out, despite Gerard Mossé changing his mind inside the final furlong and veering across the track onto the better ground when clear. Should be hard to beat. RATING 100 41- Richard Pankhurst 434 3 John Gosden Richard Pankhurst is the least exposed entry in the race, having not run since winning the Chesham Stakes at last year's Royal Ascot meeting. He improved from his debut fourth to win the Listed race over 7f, but clearly picked up an injury after the race and has not been seen since. He has been subject to rave reviews from his stable in the past, but we must wait to see if he can fulfil his promise after all this time. He has missed a couple of intended starts recently due to the soft ground, which could prove problematic once more this weekend. RATING 97. ==================================== NOTEBOOK.ACCIPITER caught the eye in a sprint at Glorious Goodwood, as he was hampered inside the final furlong when in with every chance, which ended his challenge in the race. He has since enjoyed similar fortune at York, when finding trouble leaving the stalls, so is certainly due a change of luck. He is best over 5f on fast ground, so may have to wait a while for conditions to dry out, but he has winning potential and should be a decent price after two unplaced efforts. At Kempton, James Fanshawe's filly RETURN ACE won her maiden on her second start in impressive fashion. The daughter of Zamindar looks as though she will stay further than 1m 4f and should contest a handicap next time out, having been awarded a very fair rating of 78 by the handicapper. After the shock of the Juddmonte International Stakes, the form looks very suspect and maybe should be disregarded. The pacemaker, Dick Doughtywylie, who was actually retired a year ago, set a fast pace, but still finished within five lengths of the leader. Do not lose faith in GOLDEN HORN or TIME TEST , who ran miles below their best. We all know the ground was against them, but the muddling pace of the race and the fact that Silvestre de Sousa's timing was impeccable on Arabian Queen, contributed to the most surprising result of the year. Golden Horn is currently 2/1 for the Irish Champion Stakes, which is twice the price he has been anywhere since winning the Derby.
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Post by Kimmy on Sept 4, 2015 15:04:21 GMT
STAT WATCH.The Sprint Cup at Haydock is the highlight of Saturday's racing and this Group 1 contest can sometimes throw up a surprise result. Good recent form in Group 1 sprint races is vital and horses with a win in the current year are of most interest. Fillies should not be discounted in this top sprint race, with two winners in the last seventeen years being fillies. However, with Tiggy Wiggy seemingly out of form, it may be best to concentrate on INTERCEPTION . Of the trainers with possible runners this year, Tom Hogan, Henry Candy and David O'Meara have the best record in the race. David O'Meara's G FORCE won this race last year and Henry Candy has two live contenders in LIMATO and TWILIGHT SON . Tom Hogan has the tough GORDON LORD BYRON entered and he is sure to be there or thereabouts. Haydock is a track at which some horses really excel and in turn, a number of trainers and jockeys are worth following at the Merseyside course. John Gosden (32%) and Roger Varian (28%) have the best strike-rates and Tom Dascombe (20%) is another who excels at Haydock. Jockey wise, Paul Hanagan (20%) and Daniel Tudhope (17%) are course specialists. Whoever Paul Hanagan decides to ride in the Group 1 Sprint, should be noted with interest, particularly if it is WAADY , who is trained by the aforementioned John Gosden. There is also racing at Ascot this weekend and once again, it is John Gosden who has the best record here (17%). With Ryan Moore out for the season with an injury, the next best jockey at the Berkshire track is William Buick (14%). With Godolphin being the leading owner (12%), it could be a bumper weekend for the boys in blue. Over the last seven days, Daniel Tudhope has recorded a remarkable 43% strike-rate, with Fergal Lynch (25%) and Luke Morris (19%) also on fire. Mark Johnston continues to have an excellent season and he trained seven winners last week (23%). Other trainers enjoying a hot spell are Peter Chapple-Hyam (57%), David Simcock (33%) and Chris Wall (25%). ========================================== RACE RATING.3.45 Haydock - Saturday 5 September Betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1) 6 22-435 Danzeno 4 9-3 Michael Appleby Fifth in the July Cup on his latest start, this consistent type hasn't won for over a year, but he rarely runs a bad race and could be in the shake up again. He has a likeable attitude and bags of speed. The ground won't be a worry for him. RATING: 95 12-700 Due Diligence 4 9-3 A P O'Brien Out of form this season in his three runs but not inconceivable that he could bounce back. A good-looking son of War Front, he would not want the ground to be too slow. RATING: 91 17431 Eastern Impact 4 9-3 Richard Fahey This speedy son of Bahamian Bounty should run well again here, particularly as he comes here off the back of a win. His confidence should be sky high after a cosy win in a Listed event at Chester at the beginning of last month and although this is obviously tougher, he has proven form in Group 1 sprints. RATING: 96 10-800 G Force 4 9-3 David O'Meara Winner of this race last year and can't be ruled out. G Force has not enjoyed a great season, but a return to this track is a positive and he should be kept on the right side of. RATING: 97 881233 Gordon Lord Byron 7 9-3 T Hogan Second to G Force in this race last year, Gordon Lord Byron is the most well travelled horse in the race and is of interest again. He would appreciate some cut in the ground and can go close. RATING: 98 81408 Pearl Secret 6 9-3 David Barron This son of Compton Place loves Haydock and should run well again here. He won the Temple Stakes back in May but has not been in the best of form since. Beaten seven lengths by Mecca's Angel last time in the Nunthorpe, he is likely to be outclassed, but not without each-way possibilities. RATING: 90 016544 Sole Power 8 9-3 Edward Lynam A brilliant son of Kyllachy, Sole Power is one of the most likeable and consistent sprinters in training. Fourth in both the Nunthorpe and July Cup on his latest starts, he is sure to run his race again. Sole Power won the Temple Stakes here back in 2011 and while a place is most definitely on the cards, he may find one or two too speedy now. RATING: 98 255544 Watchable 5 9-3 David O'Meara A useful sprinter, but Watchable's last win came in a handicap in Ireland last September. He ran a great race in a Group 1 in Deauville last time to finish fourth to Muhaarar, beaten just a couple of lengths. He had the run of the race that day and is unlikely to be so lucky here. RATING: 90 31171 Adaay 3 9-1 William Haggas A highly progressive son of Kodiac, Adaay won the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last time and is very much in form. He beat Kodi Bear on his first ever start last May at Newbury so that form looks particularly good now. Should go close. RATING: 99 1-8477 Belardo 3 9-1 Roger Varian Last season's Dewhurst winner, Belardo hasn't hit the same heights as a three-year- old despite running well in the Irish 2,000 guineas. This drop back to six furlongs does not look like an obvious help and he is unlikely to halt his losing sequence here. RATING: 91 11-122 Limato 3 9-1 Henry Candy This son of Tagula has been very well placed by Henry Candy and should be placed again here. Second in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last time, he has been freshened up and is one to watch. RATING: 98 431311 Magical Memory 3 9-1 Charles Hills The winner of two big handicaps on his latest starts (the most recent being the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood). In good form, Magical Memory is untried in a race such as this and he may find the whole experience too competitive. RATING: 88 43416 Markaz 3 9-1 B W Hills Sixth in the Hungerfiord Stakes last time, this son of Dark Angel might struggle in this company and is probably suited to seven furlongs. A Group 3 winner at Newmarket already this summer, but unlikely to hit the same heights here. RATING: 92 25213 Mattmu 3 9-1 Tim Easterby A Group 3 winner at The Curragh at the beginning of last month, Mattmu is one of Tim Easterby's stable stars and is likely to be in the shake up. Third in the Nunthorpe last time, this return to six furlongs should suit. RATING: 99 2-8311 Strath Burn 3 9-1 Charles Hills On a roll, having won his last two starts, including the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury, Strath Burn is a talented horse but probably not Group 1 class. RATING: 93 11-11 Twilight Son 3 9-1 Henry Candy Unbeaten in four starts, this nicely bred son of Kyllachy has been placed well (as you would expect from Henry Candy) and he is due a step-up in class. However, this is a serious rise in class and his winning streak is likely to come to an end here. RATING: 91 3-2173 Interception 5 9-0 David Lanigan Very good on her day, this likeable filly won the Wokingham at Royal Ascot but has not been in the same form since in two subsequent runs. Talented, but has questions to answer. RATING: 94 11-330 Tiggy Wiggy 3 8-12 Richard Hannon The best two-year-old filly in training last season, Tiggy Wiggy has unsurprisingly found life much more difficult as a three- year-old. Third in the 1,000 Guineas, connections then decided to drop her back to six furlongs at Royal Ascot, but she never looked like getting involved. This race will be tough for her. RATING: 95 11411 Waady 3 9-1 John Gosden With bags of speed, Waady has proved a very useful sprinter this year, winning the Group 3 Charge at Sandown on his latest appearance back in July. He will need to step up on that form here but he's a fresh horse with potential. RATING: 100 ============================================= RACING NEWS.AP McCoy's saddle from his final ride in the Leger Legends race will be auctioned off before it is used by the Champ for one last time. There are 40 exciting lots being offered at a charity lunch and auction held at Doncaster on 9 September. Funds raised will be split between Jack Berry House (the northern centre for injured jockeys in Malton), and the Injured Jockeys Fund. Ascot Gold Cup winner, Trip To Paris, looks set to join stable-mate Red Cadeaux and regular sparring-partner Big Orange by venturing to Australia to line up for the Melbourne Cup later in the year. The race is the richest two-mile race in the world, with AUS$6.4m prize money last year, and is run on the first Tuesday in November. Apprentice jockey Cam Hardie rode out his claim last week, which leaves title-race leader Tom Marquand as the favourite for the hotly- contested apprentices' title. Both riders are employed by Richard Hannon, who has given them plenty of opportunities. Northern-based jockey Jack Garritty has also been hot on their heels as the championship reaches its final couple of months. Trainer Olly Stevens, 36, has announced that he will retire from training at the end of the year. He occupied a yard owned by Qatar Racing's Sheikh Fahad, and trained some decent winners during his three-year stint at the helm. Stevens handled the prolific Lightning Spear, as well as 1,000 Guineas runner-up Lightning Thunder and Grade 1 winner Peace And War. He has stated that he wishes to spend more time with his young family as the reason for his decision. Paris's Longchamp Racecourse looks set for a two year, €131m redevelopment in the near future, which may in future lead to the closure of either Maisons-Laffitte or Saint Cloud Racecourse near the city. France Galop has rejected an offer from Qipco to help fund the building, instead choosing to foot the bill entirely. The redeveloped Longchamp course may then feature a floodlit all-weather track inside the turf course. Yorkshire based trainer David O'Meara has been linked to rumours about Aidan O'Brien leaving Ballydoyle to train elsewhere. O'Meara has trained a staggering 500 winners since setting up in 2010, and has developed an excellent reputation already. Whilst Coolmore, (Ballydoyle owners) refuse to comment on any approach to O’Meara, the Yorkshire handler has stated that there is 'no substance to the rumour'. Nine-year-old Jack Lander has raised over £12,000 for the Injured Jockeys Fund after completing a 56-mile walk from his home in Halesowen to Oaksey House in Lambourn. The primary school pupil decided to raise money for the IJF after experiencing falls from his pony, which made him realise the daily rigours most jockeys suffer. He was accompanied on the final stage of his walk by former champion, John Francome, and was invited to use the gallops with his pony by trainer, Jamie Osborne. He also received a cheque from Frankie Dettori when visiting Newmarket, on behalf of The Jockey Club. Champion jockey, Richard Hughes, has been granted a trainers' licence, and is priced at just 5/1 by Corals to train a winner with his first runner. He doesn't yet know when that runner will be, and will be attending all the yearling sales to build up his string in the near future. Bookmaking giants Betfair and Paddy Power have agreed terms in principle to form a merger. They are now likely to boast a combined turnover of £1.1bn, and now feel they are better placed to 'compete in new and existing markets'. Former leading lightweight jockey, Lindsay Charnock, has died suddenly at the age of 60. Charnock, who was based in North Yorkshire, rode regularly for the likes of Jimmy Fitzgerald, Maurice Camacho and Mary Reveley. Charnock is survived by wife Gloria and two daughters.
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Post by Kimmy on Sept 11, 2015 17:44:22 GMT
STAT WATCH.
From the few selections made in Stat Watch last week, we managed to find the 10/1 winner of the Sprint Cup, Twilight Son, who remains unbeaten in five starts. This week's televised action, shown on Channel 4 Racing, features the St Leger meeting from Doncaster and two competitive races from Chester. Last week, Frankie Dettori was in the best form, riding 6 winners from just 16 rides, along with William Buick (5/23) and Jamie Spencer (6/25). John Gosden continues his remarkable season with 8 winners at a 44% strike rate, along with Dermot Weld (4/10), Luca Cumani (3/5) and Charlie Appleby (4/23) all enjoying good weeks. Starting with Doncaster, the 2.00 is the Group 2 Champagne Stakes for juveniles, and is a particularly coveted prize. Charlie Appleby's EMOTIONLESS was impressive when winning his only race at Newmarket, and could follow up here. He has an excellent pedigree, being out of a Breeders' Cup Distaff winner by Shamardal, and can add to the stable's 2013 success in this race with Outstrip. AIR VICE MARSHALL was second to Birchwood in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July meeting last time out when not appearing to handle the uphill finish. He opposes Birchwood on 3lb better terms this afternoon. The 2.35 is the Portland Handicap, over 5 ½f, in which the progressive DIRECT TIMES catches the eye. Peter Chapple-Hyam's horse ran better than his finishing position suggests at Glorious Goodwood last time and comes here a fresh horse with improvement left in the tank. B FIFTY TWO came back to form when finishing second at Haydock last weekend for the Charlie Hills stable, who last won this race two years ago with Angels Will Fall. The 3.10 is the Park Stakes, which is a Group 2 race over 7f, and potentially contains some very exciting horses in the line-up. Hugo Palmer's HOME OF THE BRAVE was very impressive when winning at The Curragh last time out by 3½ lengths and can continue to improve, as his trainer sees him as a genuine Group 1 horse for the future. Henry Candy won the Sprint Cup last weekend, and could strike again with next best selection, LIMATO . This horse has not been seen since chasing home Muhaarar in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, and steps up from 6f for the first time today. Fast ground is essential for the son of Tagula, who certainly gives the impression that the extra furlong will suit. The 3.45 is Doncaster's feature race, the St Leger over 1m 6½f, which contains a disappointing turnout this season. STORM THE STARS has looked as though this race is tailor- made for him all summer, having chased home Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs and Erupt in Group 1 races, before winning the Great Voltigeur Stakes last time. During the race, Storm The Stars carried BONDI BEACH across the track when beating him by a narrow margin, which suggests there isn't much between the two horses. The 2.15 at Chester is a 7½f handicap, which looks very open. STEEL TRAIN is a tentative selection, having won and finished second at Thirsk this season. David O'Meara may have left some improvement in this horse yet, although the handicapper hasn't done him too many favours. HANNINGTON could run well at a decent price, having won at Lingfield and Ascot this summer, and has not run since disappointing at Glorious Goodwood. The 2.50 is a Listed race over 1m 4f, in which Saeed bin Suroor's SECRET NUMBER makes his belated reappearance. He has not been seen since chasing home subsequent Dubai World Cup winner, Prince Bishop, in the September Stakes at Kempton last season, but sets the standard on form. The in-form Luca Cumani stable could run AJMAN BRIDGE , who doesn't win very often, but may appreciate a smaller field, having competed mainly in cavalry charges for some time. He was narrowly beaten at Royal Ascot in the summer and appears to loves fast ground. ========================================
RACE RATING.
3.10 Doncaster - Saturday, 12 September Saint Gobain Weber Park Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+) 7f
16-007 Ansgar 21 7 9-4 Sabrina J Harty Won this race last year on the back of victory in the Group 3 Supreme Stakes at Goodwood. Hasn't been in the same form this season, though his unplaced run, two starts ago, in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes, wasn't that shabby. Back up in class for this race, though, and something to prove. RATING 94 10/825 Ascription 46 6 9-4 Hugo Palmer Missed last season and returned to action this year, posting a solid second in a Group 3 race at Haydock, over 7f, which gives him a sniff of making the places in this company. Didn't get a clear run in the Lennox Stakes (Group 2, 7f) at Glorious Goodwood last time, but was not disgraced when beaten two lengths by the talented Toormore. RATING 95 59308 Brazos 28 4 9-4 Clive Brittain Consistent handicapper who has been placed over distance in Class 2 races this season. Victory would provide a fairytale story for his popular veteran trainer, who recently announced he will retire at the end of this season, but Brazos unfortunately looks up against it in this race. RATING 90 3-7733 Breton Rock 14 5 9-4 David Simcock Useful son of Bahamian Bounty who is capable of running well at this level when 'soft' is mentioned in the going description. Ground currently looks as though it will be good, which may just thwart any winning ambitions, but placings in Group 2 races over this distance, this season and last, suggest he could be at the sharp end if the rain arrives. RATING 96 351344 Cable Bay 14 4 9-4 Charles Hills Has form over Ascription through his victory in the Group 3 Jury Stakes at Haydock earlier this season, and has been running well but held in good Group 2 and 3 races over 7f and 1m subsequently. Has place claims on best form, and is consistent, but probably shaded by a few from a winning perspective. RATING 96 034517 Cougar Mountain 24 4 9-4 A P O ́Brien Genuine Group 1 performer who ran as though something was amiss when heavily eased at the end of the Juddmonte International Stakes at York's Ebor meeting last month. Had won a Group 3 over 1m at Leopardstown last time and had finished third in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes earlier in the season. A resumption of that form would see him go close in this company. RATING 99 21-182 Coulsty 28 4 9-4 Richard Hannon A Group 3 winner over 6f last season, Coulsty has probably shaped up as more of a 7f horse this season, having won a Listed race over that trip on seasonal debut in April, and also finished second in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes last time. Possibly not the classiest horse in the race, but seems to be versatile in terms of ground and may still be improving. Small each-way claims. RATING 97 1-2788 Glory Awaits 22 5 9-4 Kevin Ryan A Group 2 winner over distance in Turkey last year, Glory Awaits ran well when second to the decent benchmark, Tullius, in a Listed race at Doncaster's Lincoln meeting in March. Subsequent form hasn't inspired, though, and he could be up against it here. RATING 95 111-7 Lightning Moon 122 4 9-4 Ed Walker Progressive son of Shamardal who was unraced at two but made up for lost time when winning all three starts last season, including the Group 3 Bengough Stakes at Ascot, over 6f on soft ground. Wasn't disgraced when seventh in the Group 2 sprint at York's May Meeting, on quicker ground, but forecast good going for this race may not be optimal and he is unproven over this distance. May be one to watch for in the markets. RATING 97 1-1002 Naadirr 14 4 9-4 Marco Botti Dual Listed race-winning son of Oasis Dream who has been held on both starts to date in Group races, though pick of form gives him an outside chance of making the places. Step up in trip to 7f could yield further improvement. RATING 94 67157 Zarwaan 49 4 9-4 Ed Dunlop Smart handicapper with a bit of form at Listed level, but looks slightly out of his depth in the context of this race. Forecast ground and trip should be fine, but rivals just look to have a bit too much class. RATING 93 213162 Dusky Queen 23 5 9-1 Richard Fahey Progressive Shamardal filly who has won a Listed race over distance this season and posted best effort to date when second in a decent York handicap (7f) last time. Not out of the equation for place claims on that basis, as fillies enjoy a weight concession from their male counterparts in this race. RATING 95 60144 Code Red 46 3 9-0 William Muir Won the Listed Surrey Stakes at Epsom's Derby meeting earlier in season, but held by Safety Check when fourth to that horse's third in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes, over 7f, at Glorious Goodwood last time, despite getting plenty of weight allowances. Useful, and possibly improving, but something to find with likely market-leaders. RATING 96 6-1713 Convergence 30 3 9-0 G M Lyons Cape Cross colt who was beaten by Cougar Mountain when possibly not seeing out a mile on his last start, in a 1m Group 3. Won over 7f the time before, and may improve again for return to that trip for this race. Each way possibilities. RATING 96 3-1661 Home Of The Brave 55 3 9-0 Hugo Palmer Finished sixth to Gleneagles in the 2,000 Guineas earlier this season and beat the talented Gordon Lord Byron in a 7f Group 3 race last time. That form earns plenty of credit in the context of this race and could be thereabouts. RATING 98 33307 Ivawood 34 3 9-0 Richard Hannon Third in the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas races, but recent form has been a little short of that, though not beaten far in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest by smart Muharaar last time. Drop in class and return to slightly further may help. RATING 99 11-122 Limato 85 3 9-0 Henry Candy Smart two-year-old who is as yet unraced over further than 6f and was held when second to Muharaar in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last time. Comes here fresh and is an intriguing entrant for a stable that won a Group 1 race last weekend. RATING 98 43416 Markaz 28 3 9-0 B W Hills Group 3 winner over distance two starts ago, though held at this level in races either side of that victory, including when behind Breton Rock in the Hungerford Stakes last time. Also beaten by Limato on seasonal debut at Ascot, and probably not the most obvious winner in this field. RATING 95 221-58 Toocoolforschool 105 3 9-0 K R Burke Beaten by fourth-placed Markaz last time in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock and hasn't really hit the heights expected of him this season, if in only two starts, having won a Group 2 last year. Interesting to see if there is any confidence in the markets for him, on this return to action after three- plus months on the sidelines. RATING 95 21417 Tupi 46 3 9-0 Richard Hannon Fourth in the Jersey Stakes (7f) at Royal Ascot and looked a solid Group performer, easily winning a 1m Listed race next time. Disappointed when well beaten and last in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes last time and even his best form leaves him with a little to find with leading rivals. RATING 96 247014 War Envoy 77 3 9-0 A P O ́Brien Winner of the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot this year, but Listed and Group race form is mixed, and the possibility is that he might just be a very good handicapper. Connections know the time of day, though, and he may have a small each-way chance. RATING 95 3-5211 Ainippe 69 3 8-11 G M Lyons Latest two wins, including over distance, have both come at Group 3 level and this son of Captain Rio is less exposed than some. Another who may be worth watching in the markets for any signs of confidence, but would need to improve again on his recent, progressive form, to play a major role in this race. RATING 96 6-1113 Safety Check 46 4 9-4 Charlie Appleby Dubawi colt who won two Group 2 races over distance, and also over 1m, in Dubai, earlier this year. Ran as well as ever when a one length-third behind Toormore in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood on latest start, which was his first run in four months. That form entitles him to respect here. RATING 100
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Post by Kimmy on Sept 18, 2015 18:32:25 GMT
STAT WATCH.
This feature enjoyed an excellent day last Saturday, when the meetings were unaffected by the weather for the first time for a while. Emotionless was the most impressive juvenile winner of the season so far, winning at 8/13, while Limato (9/2) was equally impressive when stepping up to 7f for the first time. Bondi Beach 'won' the St Leger at 2/1 in the stewards' room, while Secret Number made a winning comeback at Chester at 11/8. Let's hope we can keep up the good work this weekend, although there is soft ground to encounter once again, which can make things tough. Roger Varian (5 winners from 20 runners) continued his excellent season last week, as did John Gosden (5/15), David Simcock (5/14) and George Baker (4/9). The latter's namesake was the leading jockey last week, riding 7 winners, as did the red-hot Fergus Sweeney, who is fresh from winning his first Group 1 aboard Twilight Son. Apprentices Tom Marquand (7/26) and Jack Garritty (4/10) are both flying, whilst Andrea Atzeni (5/20) has been in good touch, despite his unfortunate demotion after winning the St Leger. Channel 4 Racing is showing three races from Newbury, starting at 1.45 with a Group 3 race over 1m 3f. INTILAAQ represents Roger Varian, and has been most impressive in winning his last two races. He was a five-length winner of the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock last time, and could be a better value bet than EAGLE TOP , who comes here after his narrow defeat in the King George. He is proven on soft ground, whereas Intilaaq is not, though he has a half-brother, also by an American stallion, who has won on heavy ground in France. The 2.15 is the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes over 6f for juveniles, where William Haggas' TASLEET can excel, having already won over course and distance. He proved himself on a soft surface at York last time out, and is more experienced than the filly LUMIERE , who created a stir when making all on her debut at Newmarket's July meeting, before finishing second to Besharah in the Lowther Stakes last time out. The 2.50 is the Dubai Duty Free Handicap over 1m 2f, and represents a drop in grade for MOHEET , who has not been good enough to feature in the Classics this season. He could be good enough if reproducing the form of his third-place in the Craven Stakes. CYMRO loves soft ground and must have a great shout for Tom Dascombe, who deserves a change of luck after losing Brown Panther in Ireland last week. Heading north for four races on Channel 4 Racing from Ayr, The 2.00 is a Group 3 race for juvenile fillies over 6f. Richard Hannon's WHATDOIWANTTHATFOR has been in excellent form all season, winning 3 races. She is proven on soft ground and sets the standard here, having won a Listed race at Newbury on her penultimate start. Ann Duffield has won this race twice in the last 3 years and is represented by the unbeaten SILHUETTE , who beat an odds-on favourite when winning in soft ground at Ripon last time out. The 2.35 is the Ayr Silver Cup, and could be an opportunity for the consistent MULLIONHEIR to grab a big prize. This much-improved horse stays 7f, which could be essential in a fast-run race on soft ground today. RIGHT TOUCH won at Ascot last time out on easy ground and could go close here, as he remains well treated at present. The 3.10 is the Listed Doonside Cup over 1m 2f, and could provide soft ground-lover SKY HUNTER with an opportunity to atone, having been subsequently disqualified after winning this race last year. He proved last year he is best when fresh, and has not been seen since running in March. EXOSPHERE was very impressive when winning a Sandown handicap last time out for Sir Michael Stoute, suggesting he is ready for the step up in grade in the process. These are selected ahead of EAGLE TOP , assuming that he will run at Newbury. Finally the 3.45 is Ayr's feature race, the Gold Cup over 6f. Richard Fahey has been patient with DON'T TOUCH this season, who may have a hard job to make it 5 out of 5 today, but is proven in competitive soft-ground sprints and could be a Group horse running in a handicap. Veteran HOOF IT won his first race since the 2011 Stewards' Cup at Doncaster last week and could be worth another chance in this race, having been given some breathing space by the handicapper at present.
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RACE RATING.
1.45 Newbury - Saturday, 19 September Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup (Registered As The Arc Trial) (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) 1m3f5y
1-1225 Answered 7 4 J S Bolger Dual Listed-winning son of Authorized who has also twice been placed at Group 3 level in 2015, over distance, including when behind the smart Found, who has been runner-up in three Group 1 races this season. Solid form, but maybe a little way short of what's required to win in this company. RATING 96 31703 Arab Dawn 14 4 Hughie Morrison Progressive handicapper this season and last, who won the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot this year. That was probably his best run to date, though wasn't far off that when held-third behind Jack Hobbs in the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton two weeks ago. Has won over course and distance, but needs to raise his game again in this field. RATING 93 6-1143 Basem 28 4 Saeed bin Suroor Has impressed this season, initially in 1m handicaps before making switch to Pattern races last time, when a good third in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York's Ebor meeting. That rates as his best run to date and, as one of the less exposed horses in the field, there could be more to come. RATING 96 31-603 Battalion 21 5 William Haggas Won a 10f Listed race on the all-weather last November, followed by a solid sixth at the same course in the Winter Derby this spring. Bounced back from a tardy run in the John Smith's Cup with a fine third in the Winter Hill Stakes (Group 3) last time, and not out of it on the pick of his form to date, particularly if the going eases from the expected good ground. RATING 96 1-3272 Cannock Chase 21 4 Sir Michael Stoute Beat Battalion last time, at level weights, when second in the Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor. Previous form includes a win at this level in Royal Ascot's Tercentenary Stakes last season, plus two fair placed efforts in Group 3s earlier this season. Slight step-up in trip may help and not over-raced so far, so may be open to further improvement. RATING 97 14-422 Eagle Top 56 4 John Gosden The class horse of the field having only been beaten a nose in the Group 1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes last time. The winner of that race followed up next time in the Group 2 Prix Foy and as he has no penalties, he should be the one to beat on official figures. RATING 100 11-556 Hillstar 50 5 Sir Michael Stoute Won this race last year, and went in next time in the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine. They were his best racecourse performances to point, but has disappointed in all three starts this season, including at this level last time, and better rivals entered in this race means that it's not an obvious opportunity for Hillstar to regain the winning thread. RATING 95 29315- In The Fast Lane 441 5 William Haggas New recruit for Willie Haggas who could make his stable and British debut in this race, having previously won at Group 1 level in his native South Africa, over 1m and 1m 2f. That sort of form probably doesn't equate to Group 1 form in Britain, but is respected nonetheless and it will be interesting to see if there is any market support for him. RATING 94 3-1011 Intilaaq 42 3 Roger Varian According to official figures, this son of Dynaformer is the best three-year-old in the race, having won the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes last time (Group 3). Unexposed and still on an upward curve, and entitled to plenty of respect. RATING 99 43866 Niceofyoutotellme 14 6 Ralph Beckett Good handicapper last year, winning a valuable handicap at Newmarket and also placed second in the Cambridgeshire. Went well in May, in a Group 3 10f race at Sandown, when not beaten far by the useful Western Hymn, and ahead of the smart Eagle Top. The latter horse has improved past him, however, and Niceofyoutotellme hasn't repeated that form in last three starts. Slight drop back in trip might help but still has work to do. RATING 94 1-2 Ooty Hill 155 3 Roger Charlton Raced only twice so far, when winning a soft- ground 7f maiden at Newmarket at the back end of last season (form has only worked out at a similar level), and on seasonal debut in April, when second at this course in a 10f conditions race. The winner went on to win the Musidora Stakes and French Oaks, so, potentially Ooty Hill is very much the proverbial dark horse, with it all ahead of him. Interesting. RATING 97 21225 Scottish 20 3 Andrew Balding Spoiled his chance last time when pulling hard for a long way in early stages of Group 2 at Deauville last time (12f), but did finish second in Goodwood's St Leger trial, the Gordon Stakes, and that performance gives him an each-way sniff in this company. RATING 96 461d1-1 Sky Hunter 196 5 Saeed bin Suroor Not seen since landing a Group 2 over 12f in Dubai in March, having won Listed and Group 3 races over 10f and 12f at Ayr and Newbury last autumn. One of the better horses in this race, but would carry a penalty for his Group 3 win and others, who aren't burdened with penalties, may just have an advantage at weights according to their best form. RATING 98 3-115 Speedy Boarding 63 3 James Fanshawe Beaten by Star Of Seville in maiden at end of last season, with that winner going on to beat Ooty Hill by a lesser margin earlier this year. Has something to find with Ooty Hill on that formline, but has undeniably improved this season, winning a Listed race over 10f and then finished a good fifth in the Irish Oaks last time. Drop back in trip for this race could help and connections' record in this sort of race is to be respected. RATING 97 114 Tashaar 31 3 Richard Hannon Son of Sea The Stars won his first two starts - 8f maiden and 1m 1f handicap - before looking as though he didn't quite see out 1m 4f in the Group 2 Voltigeur Stakes at York last month. Slight drop in trip and grade for this race may help, and is open to more improvement than some, with only three runs under his belt. RATING 96 11-142 The Corsican 50 4 David Simcock 10f Listed win at Goodwood earlier this year paved the way for a good fourth in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes, just behind Western Hymn and ahead of an unlucky Cannock Chase. Was second in the Group 3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood last time, ahead of Watersmeet and Hillstar, and has place claims on best form. RATING 97 415240 Watersmeet 28 4 Mark Johnston Has a chance of turning tables with Arab Dawn when a 3½ length-fifth to that horse at Royal Ascot, and may just be better off back down to this sort of trip, having finished tailed off over 14f last time, and looked held over 12f the time before. Has won over 10f three times previously, but looks an also-ran given the higher-class opponents in this race. RATING 94 =======================================
NOTEBOOK.
The 2m 2½f novices' hurdle which opened racing at Stratford's Tuesday meeting earlier this week was all about whether MAPUTO , a former smart horse on the Flat, would follow-up his comfy win at Perth the time before. He did, and in no uncertain terms, and looks up to further hurdles wins this season, even if bearing penalties. The second-placed TANGOLAN (trained by Feargal O'Brien) is more exposed than the winner and while he was no match for the winner, there will be easier opportunities for him. The Nigel Twiston-Davies- trained FLORRIE BOY showed some ability on his hurdles debut and may be one to watch out for in handicap hurdles further down the line. ============================================
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Post by Kimmy on Sept 25, 2015 17:33:45 GMT
STAT WATCH.
The unbeaten Ayr Gold Cup winner, Don't Touch, saved our bacon last week by winning at 6/1, as soft ground continues to make life difficult for punters. Cymro also finished third at 6/1, with even Eagle Top being turned over at odds-on in his bid to atone after a narrow defeat in the King George. This week's action is spread between Flat and Jump racing, as Channel 4 Racing is covering both Newmarket and Market Rasen. On the Flat, Roger Varian (4/8) continued his excellent season with a 50% strike rate last week, while Richard Fahey (13/64) enjoyed the most success, with 5 winners alone on Ayr Gold Cup day. John Gosden (3/8) also continues his excellent season. Paul Hanagan and Graham Lee both rode 8 winners from 32 rides last week, while James Doyle (7/22) and Fergal Lynch (4/11) both continued their excellent seasons. Starting at Market Rasen, the 2.15 is a Listed hurdle over an extended 2 miles. SWANSEA MILE has been imported from Ireland by Dan Skelton (24% strike rate this season), having won his last two races for Ted Walsh. Skelton does particularly well with his Irish recruits, and has a habit of improving them. He is proven under any conditions and is certainly going the right way. GOODBYE DANCER represents Nigel Twiston- Davies, who always tends to start the season strongly. He won 3 juvenile hurdles last summer, before suffering an injury after running at Market Rasen just under a year ago. He needs to settle to make a successful transition to a higher grade, but clearly has plenty of ability. The 2.50 is a Listed handicap chase, where the classy OSCAR ROCK could make a winning return to action. He showed improvement in blinkers at the end of last season, having looked a very exciting horse when he ran in bumpers. Philip Hobbs's CLOUD CREEPER recorded a hat-trick last season, before finishing runner-up in a decent race at Haydock last May. He has been freshened up and will be ridden by champion-elect Richard Johnson, who has already recorded a remarkable 81 winners this season. On the level, the 2.00 at Newmarket is the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over a mile, which looks an excellent opportunity for the unbeaten FOUNDATION . John Gosden's colt has won both his starts at Haydock, including a Listed race by 3 lengths. The son of Zoffany loves cut in the ground and looks very exciting. UNICORN is a half-brother to St Leger winner Bondi Beach, who could be Aidan O'Brien's first choice after winning his maiden at Leopardstown. The 2.35 is the Cheveley Park Stakes, a 6f Group 1 race for fillies. LUMIERE is expected to show massive improvement from finishing second in the Lowther Stakes behind BESHARAH , as she learned very little when making all to win on debut prior to her race at York. She is prominent in the betting for the 1,000 Guineas and must win this to confirm her place near the head of the market. Besharah is a genuine two-year-old with plenty of experience, but is unlikely to possess as much potential as Lumiere. The 3.00 is the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes over 6f for colts, and can provide another opportunity for Gosden's SHALAA to prove what a magnificent sprinter he is. He comes here after wins in the July Stakes, the Richmond Stakes and the Prix Morny, and is proven on any ground. Godolphin's VENTUROUS is unbeaten in two starts and is the next best selection, with improvement likely. Finally, the 3.50 is the first part of the autumn double, the Cambridgeshire Handicap over 1m 1f. Godolphin's PORTAGE has finished second in the Irish equivalent already, and looks to be returning to his two-year-old form, having won a good race at Ascot on his penultimate start. He likes soft ground and stays very well, which is essential in a cavalry charge like this. THIRD TIME LUCKY represents the in-form Richard Fahey stable, having won 4 races this season. He continues to improve and remains well-treated by the handicapper at present. ==========================================
RACE RATING.
2.00 Newmarket - Saturday, 26 September Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo) 1m
312 Air Vice Marshal 77 2 9-0 A P O ́Brien Improving son of War Front who won his maiden at the second time of asking but then stepped up when second in the Group 2 July Stakes, when sent off the favourite. Stayed on at the close of that race, so an extra furlong could help today. Respected. RATING 97 61 Beacon Rock 27 2 9-0 A P O ́Brien From a family with a fine pedigree over 1m or further, including several Group 1 winners, among them Dylan Thomas. Has only won a maiden so far, in two starts, and needs to step up significantly on that form to play a major role in this race. RATING 92 81 Beast Mode 26 2 9-0 Peter Chapple-Hyam Stepped up on a green but respectable debut in a 7f Newmarket maiden to land a maiden at Newcastle, over the same distance, and as he pleased. Though further improvement cannot be ruled out, that form looks pretty ordinary in the context of this race and more needed here. RATING 93 11 Foundation 21 2 9-0 John Gosden Son of Zoffany whose two wins from two starts (both over distance) include a Listed race at Haydock last time, and no surprise were his master trainer to have wrought further improvement from him in preparation for this race. RATING 99 51 General Macarthur 20 2 9-0 A P O ́Brien Another O'Brien-trained son of War Front who clearly benefited for his first run, in terms of experience, when professionally winning his second outing, looking much more like the finished article. That said, he could still be open to further improvement, but maybe has a little more to find relative to one or two of his stablemates. RATING 95 12 Haalick 15 2 9-0 Roger Varian By the Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Roderic O'Connor, Haalick left behind his cosy win in a fairly run-of-the-mill Haydock 7f maiden to finish second in a Listed race at Doncaster's St Leger meeting earlier this month. Was no match for the winner on that occasion, and more on his plate in this company. RATING 96 3142 Humphrey Bogart 16 2 9-0 Richard Hannon Was staying on well when winning a Doncaster maiden second time out and then improved to finish third in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York last month. Kept on at the end of that race and was then an unlucky second in a valuable sales race at Doncaster's St Leger meeting. Good, solid form, but may be vulnerable to a less- exposed improver. RATING 97 122 Ibn Malik 14 2 9-0 Charles Hills Classy son of Raven's Pass who built on his winning debut in a 7f Newmarket maiden to finish second in Group 2 races at Glorious Goodwood and Doncaster's St Leger meeting. Looked tapped for toe by the winner at Doncaster, so step up in trip may help his cause and has each-way claims. RATING 98 1 Landofhopeandglory 56 2 9-0 A P O ́Brien Won a Galway maiden over 1m and half a furlong in early August and, as a scopey son of High Chapparal, plenty tipped him as a potential Derby hope. However, while he is one of the less- exposed entrants in this race, the form of that Galway maiden looks modest and he has a lot to find to enter serious reckoning for this race. RATING 93 321 Lazzam 53 2 9-0 Marco Botti Ran well in three Class 4 and 5 maidens over distance earlier this summer, winning his latest start, at Chelmsford (8f), by an easy 4+ lengths. From a family with top-class form in South Africa and Argentina, it will be interesting to see how he fares in the more competitive environment of British racing. RATING 95 23318 Lieutenant General 38 2 9-0 A P O ́Brien Finished eighth in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes last time (Humphrey Bogart third), but that was a below-par effort and had previously finished a five-length third to Deauville in the Tyros Stakes earlier in the season. Allowing for the possibility that his last run was just 'a bad day at the office', he still has something to find on his best form to date. RATING 96 251 Muntazah 2 9-0 B W Hills An unlucky second on his debut in a 7f Newmarket maiden (Beast Mode unplaced and down the field), he was then a staying-on fifth next time, beaten less than three lengths by the subsequent winner of the Acomb Stakes, Recorder. The second, third and fourth horses from that second race have each won a maiden since then, as has Muntazah, at Leicester. Interesting on form lines over a few rival entrants in this race, but probably has place claims at best. RATING 96 124 Port Douglas 50 2 9-0 A P O ́Brien Won a 7f maiden first time out and has since looked in need of further, which is unsurprising given he is related to a number of high-class middle-distance runners. Also looked as though he was unsuited by the soft ground last time, so increase in trip and expected better ground should help. Still has work to do, though. RATING 94 713 Shogun 34 2 9-0 A P O ́Brien Son of Fastnet Rock who improved to land a Curragh maiden with something in hand on his second start. However, the form of that race has not worked out and Shogun was arguably held by the soft ground at the Curragh next time. Better ground for this race may show him in a different light, but doesn't look an obvious winner for a stable with higher-profile entrants. RATING 94 537173 Sixth Sense 17 2 9-0 Mark Johnston Has had a busy season, running nine times to date, with highlights including his third in the Listed Chesham Stakes and a Listed win at Ascot over 7f on soft ground. Hasn't really stepped up on that form in subsequent starts, including seventh (and last) to Air Force Blue in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes (6f) and third in a French Group 3 last time. Should run his race, but others can improve past him. RATING 95 131 Tony Curtis 36 2 9-0 Richard Hannon Son of Rock Of Gibraltar who has similar form to the well-regarded Air Vice Marshall, given they only finished within a quarter-length of one another when second and third in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July meeting. Ran to a similar level when winning a Listed race over 1m at Salisbury last time and has persuasive each-way claims in this company. RATING 97 31 Unicorn 44 2 9-0 A P O ́Brien Younger half-brother of this season's St Leger winner, Bondi Beach, who improved on his debut-third in a soft-ground 7f maiden at Galway, to land a Leopardstown 8f maiden last time. Won that race by an easy four lengths and looks one of the likelier improvers. RATING 96 1 Deauville 65 2 9-0 A P O ́Brien One of the likelier candidates for outright honours in this race, at least amongst those possibly being sent over by Aidan O'Brien (has trained three winners of this race in last 10 years). This son of Galileo is unbeaten in two starts and kept on very well last time to land the Group 3 Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown two months ago. Comes here fresh and with some of the best form on offer amongst the whole field. RATING 100 =========================================
RACING NEWS.
Richard Fahey enjoyed a fabulous day last Saturday, training five winners, including in the Ayr Silver Cup, the Mill Reef Stakes and the Ayr Gold Cup. Don't Touch made it five wins from as many starts when winning the Gold Cup, and looks certain to make the transition to Group races from now on. Don't Touch's owners have just four horses in training, yet recorded a 314/1-treble themselves, with Right Touch and Another Touch also scoring. Bookmakers have stated that had their other horse, Innocent Touch, won the 1m 5f handicap, the result would have cost the industry £5m. Fifty-year-old jockey Kieren Fallon could be returning to Britain to continue his riding career. The former champion has been riding in America since injuring his foot in the stalls at Newmarket in the spring, having spent last winter riding in the States. He has been based in California for the summer, but has been tempted back to ride by Richmond trainer Alan Swinbank, who is in need of a replacement for suspended jockey, Ben Curtis. Aidan O'Brien's St Leger winner Bondi Beach and stable-mate Kingfisher could be sent to contest the Melbourne Cup in November, as leading Australian Owner, Lloyd Williams, has bought shares in the horses. He has also purchased part of Irish St Leger winner Order Of St George, who is less likely to travel to Flemington. John Gosden has stated that Jack Hobbs may wait to contest the Champion Stakes at Ascot, rather than run in the Arc de Triomphe against stable-mate, Golden Horn. Gosden suspects that the ground will be drier at Longchamp, which would favour Golden Horn, but he wants plenty of cut in the ground for his Irish Derby winner, Jack Hobbs, who won his latest start in the September Stakes at Kempton. Australian trainer Sam Kavanagh has been banned for over nine years after illegally administering the banned substances cobalt and caffeine to his horses. Suspicion was first raised when the former Sir Henry Cecil- trained Midsummer Sun was tested after winning the Gosford Cup in January. Cobalt is the drug allegedly used by some leading cyclists involved with so-called 'blood doping'. Last year's St Leger winner Kingston Hill has been retired to Coolmore Stud after another training setback. The grey son of Mastercraftsman has not raced this year after training issues in March and July, which has forced Roger Varian to pull up stumps with this popular horse. Luca Cumani has been left absolutely devastated after his leading owner, Sheikh Mohammed Obaid, removed his 23 horses from his stable, including King George winner Postponed. The owner has given no reason for moving his horses to Cumani’s fellow Newmarket trainer, Roger Varian. Emma Lavelle has announced that she will be moving to Peter Makin's former stable, near Marlborough, which boasts 154 acres of private gallops, 54 stables and 45 acres of paddocks. The trainer is delighted about the move, and has suggested that she may start training some Flat horses when she has moved into the new state-of-the-art yard. Andrew Balding's Elm Park is back on course for the Champion Stakes after winning a Listed race at Sandown last week. The winner of last season's Racing Post Trophy enjoyed returning to a mile on soft ground, when looking as though he could be coming back to his best. He has had a very light campaign this year, having returned home very sore after running in the Derby back in June
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Post by Kimmy on Oct 2, 2015 18:12:02 GMT
STAT WATCH.
This feature enjoyed excellent fortune last week, as we went through the card at Newmarket, as well as tipping the winner of the feature steeplechase at Market Rasen. Oscar Rock won for us at 4/1, while Cloud Creeper finished third at 8/1. Our Newmarket clean sweep included Foundation winning at 5/4, Lumiere showing the improvement we predicted to win at 100/30 and Shalaa winning as expected at 1/2. Our best result, however, was Third Time Lucky winning the 34-runner Cambridgeshire Handicap at 14/1! This week looks much trickier, as there are three 'sales' races at Newmarket, with not much form to choose from. There are 7 races live on Channel 4 Racing, including Redcar's most valuable race, the Two-Year-Old Trophy. John Gosden and Mark Johnston have been the most prolific trainers in the past week with 6 winners each, while Ralph Beckett and David Simcock both trained 4 winners at a healthy strike rate. Silvestre de Sousa continued his fine season, adding another 6 winners to his tally, as did Jim Crowley. Frankie Dettori and Will Buick both recorded 5 winners at a decent strike rate. Starting at Newmarket, the 1.45 is the inaugural October Auction Stakes over 6f. DESERT RULER has won his last two starts for trainer Jedd O'Keeff, who is enjoying his best season to date. He has a 24% strike rate with his juveniles, which is a record that can be enhanced with this son of Kheleyf, who won a nursery at York off a mark of 82 last time out. Kevin Ryan has trained 19 two-year- old winners this season, and can go close with Chester winner IT'S THE ICE . The 2.15 is the Tattersalls Millions Trophy for fillies, with very little form for us to process. ALICE SPRINGS clearly hasn't been trained for this race, as she had a hard race to finish fourth to Lumiere in the Cheveley Park Stakes last weekend, but is the best filly in the race. New Approach filly NINETTA was an impressive four-length winner at Carlisle for Anne Duffield last time out and is our next best selection. The 2.50 is the £500k Tattersalls Trophy over 7f and brings together two useful colts that have both been absent from the racecourse for some time. Hugo Palmer (12 juvenile winners this season) has GIFTED MASTER entered after a three-month break. He won on his debut before finishing behind decent juveniles Log Out Island and Buratino. He won his last race at Newcastle after being gelded, as his trainer was disappointed with him being beaten (perhaps in hindsight, he was a little hasty, given that Buratino went on to win the Coventry). Next best is WATERLOO BRIDGE , who has not been seen since winning the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. He is stepping up in trip today, but has form over 6f on soft ground from earlier in the season. The 3.30 at Newmarket is the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes, and looks a competitive race. The older horses look to hold the advantage here, with the result possibly depending on whether Integral returns to form. A safer choice is ESOTERIQUE , who has been in excellent fettle this season from 6.5f to a 1m. Stable-mate MISS FRANCE ran well on her comeback and could chase Esoterique home for their master-trainer, Andre Fabre. Heading to Ascot, the 2.00 is a Listed race over 5f, where course and distance winner DOUBLE UP catches the eye. He comes here fresh, having not run since for over 6 weeks and has improved an incredible 30lb this season already. JUSTICE DAY won this race last season for David Elsworth, and looked in good heart when winning his penultimate race at Leicester. He almost followed up at Newbury a fortnight ago and should go well. The 3.10 is the Group 3 Bengough Stakes, where the lightly-raced POLYBIUS could continue add to his win at Newmarket last time out, as the ground doesn't dry out too much. EASTERN IMPACT is pretty consistent and comes here after a reasonable run in the Group 1 Sprint Cup last time out. The 7f Challenge Cup at 3.45 could provide MR WIN with an opportunity to win two valuable races in a week. He is on the upgrade and is running with a 6lb penalty to try to defy the handicapper. RENE MATHIS is a regular in these major handicaps and ran better than his finishing position suggests in the Ayr Gold Cup last time out. He would prefer some cut in the ground. The 3.00 at Redcar is the Listed Two-Year-Old Trophy over 6f. The best horse in the race is Al Shaqab's GUTAIFAN , who won the Prix Robert Papin earlier this season, before finishing runner up to the great Shalaa in the Prix Morny. He was successful when dropped back to 5f at Doncaster last time out and is undoubtedly the one to beat. CHRISTCHURCH was impressive when winning his maiden at Newbury last time out after dropping back to 6f for the first time. His jockey was able to be much more positive on him over a shorter distance, suggesting he is ready for a step up in grade. ================================================
RACE RATING. 3.30 NEWMARKET.
5-1432 Bawina 41 4 Carlos Laffon-Parias (Fr) Bawina has been running consistently well all year, with her best run coming when finishing a neck second in the Prix Jean Romanet in very soft ground at Deauville over 1m 2f. After winning a Group 2 race on her seasonal debut, she has also been placed in the Falmouth Stakes (under today's likely conditions) and the Prix Rothschild. She seemed to appreciate the step up in trip last time out and is likely to be involved in the finish to some degree. RATING 97 317-45 Integral 108 5 Sir Michael Stoute This tough mare won this race last season, having been a genuine Group-class horse for three seasons. She has been below her best since finishing towards the rear in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day last autumn, and was a very disappointing favourite in the Duke Of Cambridge stakes at Royal Ascot this summer. Previously, she had finished fourth to Night Of Thunder in the Lockinge Stakes, which was a reasonable run. Presumably, she suffered a setback at Ascot, as she has not been seen since, and comes here in the unusual position of being the underdog. RATING 98 1522-2 Miss France 27 4 Andre Fabre (Fr) This filly won the 1,000 Guineas last year and later finished runner-up in this race behind Integral. She had been off for eleven months before reappearing at Longchamp a few weeks ago, where she finished a close second under Frankie Dettori. This was only in a Listed race, but was a satisfactory run after such a long time off, ensuring she should come here in excellent condition. She is a fresh horse that is well proven on the Rowley Mile, and seems quite likely to make the frame against a group of fillies that have been campaigned vigorously around the world this season. RATING 99 52714 Fadhayyil 23 3 Barry Hills Fadhayyil won her penultimate start at York's Ebor meeting, beating the useful handicapper Speculative Bid in the Listed City Of York Stakes in August. She made the most of her low weight of 8st 4lb on that occasion, and may struggle to feature against the better fillies on these terms. RATING 93 11-627 Irish Rookie 106 3 Martyn Meade After a successful two-year-old career, Irish Rookie's best run of the season has been finishing runner-up in the French Guineas at Longchamp. She was not beaten far by Ervedya on that occasion, but failed to back that performance up when contesting the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She has to show plenty of improvement to feature here on that basis. RATING 95 182114 Maimara 20 3 Mikael Delzangles (Fr) Maimara is an improving filly who has won three races this season. She has won a Listed race and a Group 3 over a mile on both good and heavy ground, proving her versatility. Her fourth place behind Ervedya in the Prix du Moulin suggests she has ground to make up on some of the Group 1 regulars entered in this race, even though she is clearly a classy horse. RATING 96 48919 Malabar 21 3 Mick Channon Malabar won a Group 3 as a two-year-old and at Glorious Goodwood this summer as a three- year-old, but has an inconsistent overall profile. It looks as though she has a mountain to climb if she is going to beat the best horses in this race. RATING 91 1-0424 Raydara 21 3 Michael Halford Raydara won a Group 2 race at The Curragh as a two-year-old, and ran her best race of the season to finish three-quarters of a length behind Cougar Mountain in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes in August. She has been quite inconsistent otherwise, and has plenty to find with the better fillies. RATING 92 135011 Realtra 23 3 Roger Varian Realtra moved from Richard Fahey to Roger Varian during the middle of the summer after her form began to tail off, and has hardly looked back since. The change of scene has worked wonders, as she has won both her races after a break, including a Group 3 at Doncaster last time out. The form looks a little dubious, as she drifted across the track, but she did have 19 horses behind her that day, and not all of them were unlucky losers. Whilst she is quite likely to maintain her improvement, she looks a better filly over 7f, but she certainly deserves to take her chance. RATING 94 4-3221 Esoterique 48 5 Andre Fabre (Fr) Esoterique has the best current form on offer in this race, as she has been in the form of her life this season. This season, she has finished runner-up in the Queen Anne Stakes to the mighty Solow, and also in the Prix Maurice de Gheest to sprint-king Muharaar. This was despite dropping back to 6½ furlongs, and running on very soft ground. She gained a deserved win in the Prix Jacques Le Marois last time out, with the useful Territories behind her. She is equally effective on fast ground and looks the one to beat on recent form. RATING 100 =============================================
NOTEBOOK.
he Tom Dascombe-trained FOUR'S COMPANY has had a busy season, but seems to be running consistently and deserves another chance after finishing down the field over the sharp 5f 110y course at Chester. Having won over 6f and 7f already this season, he really needed to get away well, particularly as he was drawn fairly wide. Although he broke well, he didn't get into his stride quick enough and had to be settled at the rear. He stayed on at the one pace to finish sixth, and looks one to watch out for if stepped back up to 6f or 7f before the end of the season, on good turf (seems to have run better on good or slightly quicker ground so far this season) or maybe back on the all-weather. SHAKY GIFT ran with some promise when finishing third of eight in a National Hunt novices' hurdle at Newton Abbot earlier this week. Three weeks earlier, the six-year-old Milan mare had jumped right and was beaten by some potentially smart chasing types when last of four in a novices' chase at Stratford, but she was much better on this latest start, her first over hurdles, in which she led early on and stayed on well over the sharpish 2m 2f course at Newton Abbot. Last season, she won once from six starts in 3m Point-to-Points and connections will surely try her back over fences at some point, but there's a chance she can make her mark over hurdles before then, maybe in a novices' handicap this season. ==========================================
RACING NEWS.
Robert Thornton has announced his retirement from the saddle after failing to recover from injuries sustained in a fall in April last year. 'Choc' has been suffering with damage to his neck and upper limbs after fracturing vertebrae in a fall from Say When at Chepstow last year. Thornton will undergo training sponsored by 'JETS' (Jockeys' Employment and Training Scheme), and will also work for owner/breeder Paul Dunkley. Ryan Moore has made an unexpected return to the saddle, just a day after riding out for the first time since injuring his neck in the stalls at Newmarket in July. Moore has been absent since the July Meeting, having remained vague about the extent of his injuries. After riding out last Wednesday, he unexpectedly replaced Andrea Atzeni on Sir Michael Stoute's Peterhof the day after, finishing third. The following day, he returned to winning ways in the Group 3 Joel Stakes on the useful Roger Charlton-trained Time Test. Normality soon returned as Moore enjoyed a double, with Cannock Chase adding to the former champion's tally by winning later the same day. Former Champion Hurdle-winner, Jezki, has been ruled out for the season after suffering a tendon injury. Trainer, Jessica Harrington, has announced that he will face a year on the sidelines after heat was discovered in a foreleg. Jezki won his last race on his first attempt at three miles when beating the prolific Hurricane Fly at the Punchestown Festival. Jack Doyle is continuing his successful stint riding in America until the end of the season, as he currently lies second in the US jockeys' championship with 11 winners. He recently won the Grade 1 Glory Handicap Hurdle on the former Jessica Harrington-trained Bob Le Beau, beating the former Paul Nicholls-trained Hinterland, and Dawalan, who came from Nicky Henderson's stable. Trainer Charlie Mann has suffered a broken shoulder, three broken ribs and a fractured pelvis after a young horse he was riding became unruly in his outdoor school. Mann played down the injuries and has stated he will be leaving hospital as soon as he can. The result of the St Leger has been amended once again, after it was surprisingly altered on the day of the race after a stewards' enquiry. Connections of Bondi Beach and Simple Verse attended a hearing at BHA headquarters in London. This time, both Coolmore and Qatar Racing were represented by legal teams, with exchanges becoming heated at times. The London stewards took the view that the interference caused by Simple Verse did not affect the result, which meant that they returned to the first-past-the-post result. British horses travelling out to race in Australia's leading races have entered quarantine at Newmarket. Horses must undergo a 14-day quarantine period before leaving for Melbourne on 10 October. Cox Plate hopeful, Arod, has been joined by Melbourne Cup contesters Big Orange, Red Cadeaux and Trip To Paris. Ten horses have joined the unit in total, prior to their long-haul flight. The forecast of dry weather for this weekend's Arc meeting at Longchamp racecourse has prompted bookmakers to shorten the odds for existing ante-post favourite, Golden Horn. On Sunday he was brought in from 7s to 6s, and then to 5/1 on Monday morning, when the latest news reaffirmed the expectation of sunshine in Paris. Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh made a fruitless trip to Italy when their charge, Perfect Gentleman, fell at the 18th fence in the Grade 1 Gran Premio Merano, at Merano racecourse. British rider James Reveley enjoyed a smoother passage in the €250,000 chase, finishing third on the French-trained Ole Campanero.
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Post by Kimmy on Oct 9, 2015 18:05:04 GMT
STAT WATCH.
Last Saturday's featured race yielded four winning selections, including a brace at 9/2, and we hope to maintain our fruitful form in the Channel 4- televised races from Newmarket (2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.50) and York (1.45, 2.15, 2.50 and 3.25). A glance at the weekly stats for the Flat jockeys and trainers may prove helpful before we try to find the winners in the televised races. The form Flat jockey of last week (to Monday, 5 October) was surely Silvestre de Sousa, whose 8 wins put him three clear of his nearest rivals, including James Doyle, though the latter trounced his weighing room colleagues with a leading strike rate of 56% (5 from 9), ahead of Freddie Tylicki's 28%. Top trainer of the week was James Fanshawe, who saddled 5 from 8 to earn a sensational strike rate of 62.5%, ahead of the excellent 40% of Sylvester Kirk. The 2.00 at Newmarket is a 7f fillies' nursery handicap. Good to firm ground is forecast at Headquarter's Rowley Mile course and Charlie Appleby's (16% last 14 days) MISE EN ROSE may be suited by the drop back to 7f, having maybe not quite seen out a mile when beaten by a good one at Pontefract last time. Sir Michael Stoute's BARLEYSUGAR beat Mise En Rose earlier in the season, and is maybe open to a little more improvement, having raced only twice to date. The 2.35 is the Group 3 Autumn Stakes and Charles Hills's IBN MALIK has run well in defeat behind some smart horses this season, and doesn't carry any penalties. Similar comments apply to Aidan O'Brien's BEACON ROCK , while Jim Bolger (35% wins at Newmarket in last five years) could have a major hand in this race with the Group 3 course winner, SANUS PER AQUAM . The Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes (3.10) is a trial race for 2,000 Guineas and Derby-hopefuls. Any runners of trainer Jim Bolger ( CLEAR CUT and/or SANUS PER AQUAM ) are entitled to major respect, as he has saddled five of the last 10 winners of this race. EMOTIONLESS looks to have the best blend of ability and unexposed potential, having raced (and won) twice to date, ahead of the dual Group 1 winner (inc. over distance) AIR FORCE BLUE . The 3.45 is the big autumn handicap for stayers, the Cesarewitch. Last year's third, QUICK JACK , of Irish trainer Tony Martin, has risen up the handicap since that run but that is in tandem with some good performances over hurdles and on the Flat, and he shouldn't be discounted. David Pipe's dual-purpose LOW KEY won the Cesarewitch Trial with some ease last month, and could still be ahead of the handicapper. On that occasion, Low Key finished seven lengths clear of the Sir Mark Prescott-trained MOSCATO , who looks to have been campaigned selectively for this race and has won five times at distances of 2m or further. At York, the first of the televised races is the 1.45, a handicap for 3yo over nearly 1m 1f. The extended mile distance could play to the strengths of ARTHENUS , trained by the in-form James Fanshawe and also the unexposed ARABIAN ILLUSION of Andrew Balding. The 2.15 is a Class 2 handicap over 1m 2f 88y, in which trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (40% last 14 days) has several possible options, the best of which look to be the progressive MEMORIAL DAY and KHUSOOSY , while one at longer odds who could go well is Roger Charlton's DAVID LIVINGSTON , who returned to action for the first time in more than a year, when third in a Group 3 on his stable debut at Goodwood last month. He may improve for that run and the better ground expected for this race could help. The Listed sprint for 2yo at 2.45 looks a good opportunity for the classy TASLEET to add to his tally, with his trainer Willie Haggas having chalked up a whopping £41 per £1 level stake profit at York in the past five seasons. The yard's 19% strike rate for the last 14 days is also very good. Trainer Bryan Smart's KING ROBERT (winner over distance and going) could have an each way chance, thanks to the better ground and slight drop in class, after finishing fourth in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes last time. The 3.25 is the Coral Sprint Trophy, a 6f handicap. Local trainer Richard Fahey has a chance with GEORGE BOWEN , who has an advantageous 2lb pull at the weights with the useful Tatlisu, having just been beaten by him in the Ayr Silver Cup last month. Marco Botti's Stewards' Sprint winner GOLDEN STEPS deserves another chance after meeting plenty of trouble in the Ayr Gold Cup.
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RACE RATING..
3.10 Newmarket - Saturday, 10 October Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts and Fillies) 7f
514933 Adventurous 16 2 Mark Johnston Adventurous won a Newbury maiden on his second start back in July, and was only half a length behind Sanus Per Aquam in the Tattersall Stakes at Newmarket last time out. The level of his form otherwise had been reasonable, if not staggering, suggesting that he may struggle to feature against these top-class colts, without being disgraced. RATING 93 1211 Air Force Blue 27 2 Aidan O'Brien Air Force Blue's only defeat came behind Buratino in the Coventry Stakes, when he may have been hindered by his inexperience. Since then, he has been the emphatic winner of the Phoenix and the National Stakes at Leopardstown. He looked very impressive when stepped up to seven furlongs for the first time last month, when sweeping Herald The Dawn aside by three lengths. He is probably best with some cut in the ground, but has an excellent future ahead of him, with potentially only Emotionless standing in his way this afternoon. RATING 99 121132 Buratino 14 2 Mark Johnston Buratino has been busy this season, with his highlight being an emphatic win in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Since then he has been campaigned more sparingly by Mark Johnston, who has run him just twice in the latter part of the summer. He finished third in the Phoenix Stakes, which seemed disappointing at the time, but was a decent run in hindsight. Connections felt he was less effective on the soft ground on that occasion, when it was no disgrace to finish behind Air Force Blue. He ran an excellent race to finish second to Shalaa in the Middle Park Stakes last time out, when staying on well, which suggests he may stay the extra furlong this afternoon. Excellent place claims. RATING 98 2 Clear Cut 11 2 J S Bolger Clear Cut was an expensive purchase that made a good impression when going down by just a short-head on his debut at Fairyhouse at the end of last month. He stayed on really well during the six-furlong race, suggesting that the step up to seven-furlongs will be in his favour today. He is the least experienced member of the field, however, and is the only horse yet to win a race. He is likely to prove that he is a good, improving colt, but anything more than that would rate him as a superstar against this field. RATING 94 23318 Lieutenant General 52 2 Aidan O'Brien Lieutenant General won a Leopardstown maiden on his fourth attempt, having finished third to Deauville in a Group 3 on his previous start. He was only good enough to finish eighth in the Acomb Stakes at York last time out, suggesting that he is likely to finish towards the rear today. Wears a tongue-strap and blinkers. RATING 92 11 Emotionless 28 2 Charlie Appleby Emotionless was the impressive winner of a Newmarket maiden first time out, before sauntering clear to win the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last time out. After the race, Will Buick suggested that connections were fairly sure that Emotionless was out of the top drawer, but they must still have been impressed by the manner of his victory over Ibn Malik, who had previously finished second at Glorious Goodwood. Buick was looking for dangers with a furlong to run, seemingly with all the time in the world, before sending his horse on to win with the minimum of fuss. He is a very exciting son of a Breeders' Cup Distaff winner that looks like he could have the world at his feet. RATING 100 21 Massaat 19 2 Barry Hills Massaat was very unlucky to come up against Cymric on his debut at Sandown, when finishing second back in July. Cymric was very narrowly denied in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere last week, making the performance even more credible. After a two- month break, Massaat returned to win his maiden at Leicester last month, when impressing his jockey, Paul Hanagan, who clearly holds him in high regard. Whilst he has no experience at the highest level and has only raced twice, he has massive potential and is likely to run very well. RATING 97 11231 Sanus Per Aquam 16 2 J S Bolger Sanus Per Aquam won his first two races, before finishing second in the Tyros Stakes to the useful Deauville, and third to fellow O'Brien horse Johannes Vermeer. He ran another solid race to beat the useful Tasleet last time out in the Tattersall Stakes at Newmarket, when getting up right on the line under Kevin Manning. Whilst he is clearly a decent colt with a good attitude, he could find one or two too good this afternoon. RATING 95 7136 Shogun 6 2 Aidan O'Brien Shogun won his maiden at The Curragh on his second start, before showing improvement to finish third to Herald The Dawn in the Futurity Stakes. He then ran much better than his finishing position suggests in the Jean-Luc Lagadere, as he ran on under Joseph O'Brien, but didn't have much room late on at the finish. He is clearly a decent colt, but may be booked for a mid- field finish today, having had a hard race just six days ago. RATING 94 211 Tashweek 29 2 John Gosden Tashweek won a Newmarket maiden in decent style, before enhancing his reputation by winning the Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster's St Leger meeting. He was well- backed on his debut, suggesting that he is highly regarded, and managed to win despite taking a good hold early on. The form of his Doncaster race is decent without being remarkable, suggesting that a mid-division finish may be most likely for Tashweek. RATING 96 114433 Twin Sails 7 2 Dean Ivory Made a great start to his career when winning a maiden and then a conditions race on his first two starts, both at Newbury. Has subsequently run well in defeat, including when fourth to Group 1-placed Galileo Gold and third in two valuable sales races in recent weeks. Still needs to step up on that form, in this company, though. RATING 94 632112 Waterloo Bridge 7 2 Aidan O'Brien Waterloo Bridge had a busy start to the season, which culminated in a Royal Ascot win back in June. He won the fast-run Norfolk Stakes over five furlongs, before enduring a spell on the sidelines. He returned to finish second to Gifted Master in the Tattersalls Millions Trophy at Newmarket last week, where he stayed the seven furlongs well and looked as though he retained his ability. It is a tough ask for this son of Zoffany to race at his best two weekends running, despite his obvious ability. RATING 97 ==========================================
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Post by Kimmy on Oct 16, 2015 13:09:00 GMT
STAT WATCH.
Last week's stats-influenced picks included two winners and five placed horses (including at 20/1) and we hope to bag a few more likely sorts with our choices for this Saturday. Channel 4 is focusing entirely on the Champions meeting at Ascot, which boasts massive prize money funds and is sure to attract the crème of Flat racing. One would expect top Flat jockey Ryan Moore to have his share of high-profile rides at Ascot and it's a real positive that he was one of the top jockeys by strike rate last week (to Monday, 12 October), having converted 31% of his rides to winners, just ahead of William Buick (28%). Champion jockey-elect Silvestre de Sousa was also on good form, jointly riding the most winners (6) in period. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is sure to be well represented at Ascot and he too approaches the meeting in great form, with 10 winners in the past week and a massive 41% strike rate. The first race at Ascot is the 12.45, the Group 2 Long Distance Cup, over 2m. German trainer Andreas Wohler has a fair strike rate at the course in the last five seasons (14%) and his charge ALEX MY BOY is interesting according to his Group 2 and Group 3 wins on his last two starts, in very soft ground, including over distance, which bodes well in this race, given the expected soft going. John Gosden's FLYING OFFICER was an unlucky sixth in this race last year, when bumped several times. He is unbeaten on soft ground, which may give him a chance with those rivals with slightly better official ratings. The 1.20 is the Group 1 sprint, in which the class horse of the field is Charles Hills's MUHAARAR (5 from 7 (71%) over distance), though his lack of form on soft ground is a possible fly in the ointment. In case his superior ability doesn't compensate in the testing conditions, Henry Candy's improving TWILIGHT SON , who won the Sprint Cup at Haydock last time, could capitalise. The Group 1 race for fillies and mares, over 1m 4f, is at 1.55. This race could provide a good opportunity for the consistent FOUND to finally pick up a Group 1 this season, having finished second in such races three times in her last five starts. St Leger winner SIMPLE VERSE also has a big chance if handling the soft ground, having only won on good previously, though she shouldn't be lacking in the necessary stamina, having won over 2f further last time. At 2.30, the QEII Stakes is the race in which the top milers put their reputations on the line. Andrew Balding's classy ELM PARK relished the soft ground he won a Listed mile race on last time, and has claims in this company, and is unbeaten in four starts over distance and three on soft ground. Another with a 100% win record on this ground is the Andre Fabre-trained ESOTERIQUE , who is the best filly in the race on current form and should go close. The day's highlight race is the Champion Stakes, a Group 1 race over 1m 2f, at 3.05. Irish Derby winner JACK HOBBS has been selectively campaigned for this race and may still improve, though he may have to if previous winner CIRRUS DES AIGLES is at the top of his game, back on his preferred softer ground. Andrew Balding's TULLIUS is three from five on soft ground, has won over 1m 2f, and may offer a value each-way alternative. In the 3.45, the 1m Balmoral Handicap, trainer Brian Ellison's BALTY BOYS is 2lb better off with Heaven's Guest at the weights, relative to when beaten a head by the latter in soft-ground renewal of the competitive of the International Stakes at this course in July (7f.) Irish trainer Ger Lyons has a chance if the upward curve of his progressive three-year-old Sacrificial continues. This horse was third in the Britannia earlier this season, over course and distance, and won twice on soft ground over distance prior to that. ===============================================
RACE RATING.
3.05 Ascot, Saturday, 17 October Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) 1m 2
31-313 Air Pilot 14 6 Ralph Beckett Air Pilot is a model of consistency for connections, as he hardly runs a bad race. His best race this season came when winning a Group 3 at The Curragh, beating the useful Parish Hall in the run to the line. He finished third in the Prix Dollar last time out, which was a decent run (Cirrus Des Aigles behind). He will have to improve further to trouble the protagonists today, but is a tough horse that is suited by some give in the ground. RATING 90 4-1475 Cirrus Des Aigles 14 9 Mme C Barande-Barbe Cirrus Des Aigles has been the most remarkable horse throughout his distinguished career. There are few middle-distance races that he hasn't plundered, but he does look to be on the downgrade this season. His favoured conditions are very soft or heavy ground, as proven when he has defeated the likes of Treve in the past, but he comes here after a couple of poor efforts, though he won the Prix d'Ispahan back in April, beating the great Al Kazeem in the process. Drying ground and younger legs could stand in his way this afternoon. RATING 93 11251 Fascinating Rock 35 4 Dermot Weld Fascinating Rock has been an excellent horse for Dermot Weld, with his best run this season coming when splitting Al Kazeem and subsequent King George winner Postponed in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. After a disappointing run at Windsor in August, he bounced back to his true form to win a Group 3 at Leopardstown last time out by an imposing six- lengths. That run was over a mile and half, which proves his versatility, as he had won over a mile earlier in the year. He is one of the more likely candidates to finish in the frame therefore. RATING 94 11243 Lightning Spear 35 4 Olly Stevens Lightning Spear promised to develop into a useful horse in the early part of his career, when he was very lightly raced. He has held his own at the highest level, without actually looking to break through and win a Group 1. His best run was when finishing a close fourth in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, but he was then put in his place by Custom Cut when dropped in grade last time out. It would be surprising to see him improve enough to tackle the proven Group 1 contenders this afternoon. RATING 91 15110 Maverick Wave 63 4 John Gosden Maverick Wave's best win this season came in the Group 3 Tradesman's Cup at Chester in May, when defeating the useful Cannock Chase by half a length (Air Pilot finished back in third). He was stepping up from winning a Chelmsford handicap, suggesting that he is on the upgrade. He comes here after finishing last in the Grade 1 Arlington Million last time out, which can be forgiven. It is interesting to see that John Gosden has maintained his entry in the race, as he doesn't tend to run too many horses out of their grade. RATING 91 1-1421 The Corsican 28 4 David Simcock The Corsican put in a much improved effort on soft ground to win the Group 3 Arc Trial at Newbury last time out, having been held by Dubday previously. His second place in Goodwood's Glorious Stakes confirmed that he is a useful stakes performer, and his effort at Newbury confirmed that he is definitely improving. That race looked a weak Group 3, however, with Eagle Top failing to run his race, which means he has plenty of improvement still to find. RATING 91 144515 Tullius 65 7 Andrew Balding Tullius is a standing dish in Group 2/3 company that reserves his best for soft ground. That said, he managed to win a decent race at York in the summer on better ground, proving that he is still capable on his day. His fifth place in Salisbury's Sovereign Stakes last time out, in conditions that suited, was a below-par effort, making him difficult to fancy today. RATING 88 117-11 Vadamos 44 4 Andre Fabre Vadamoss was trained in the Provinces when proving a useful Listed-class horse last year, but has looked a very decent prospect since being transferred to Andre Fabre's all-conquering stable. He has won both his start for the French champion trainer, including a Group 2 race at Baden-Baden last time out, prompting Fabre to suggest that he could be an under-rated horse. He is versatile enough to have won over from 1m to 1m 4f, will be suited by the ground and could run a huge race at a decent price. RATING 99 2-3361 Ribbons 34 5 James Fanshawe Ribbons has been a model of consistency throughout her career, with her highlight coming when winning a Group 1 in France last season. She has looked back to her very best this season by finishing third in the Pretty Polly Stakes, and when winning the Blandford Stakes last time out. She'll appreciate cut in the ground and will be certain to be staying on right the way to the line. Could run well at a decent price. RATING 98 11-301 Elm Park 31 3 Andrew Balding Elm Park was a superb juvenile, winning the Racing Post Trophy on his favoured soft ground and going into the winter as a Classic fancy. Unfortunately, things didn't go his way in the spring, as he finished third after running too free in the Dante (behind Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs), before running off with Andre Atzeni in the Derby. He returned to the track and to form when winning a 1m Listed race at Sandown last month, when proving his wellbeing after returning home from Epsom quite shaken. He could run well if back to his best, but there may be competition for the lead today and if he fails to settle, he's sure to fail. RATING 97 61214 Palace Prince 49 3 Andreas Lowe Palace Prince finished a five-length second in the German Derby earlier this season, before going one better in a Group 3 race in his homeland. He finished fourth when returning to Group 1 company last time out, but that race didn't look as competitive as this. He is obviously a decent horse, but may lack the gears to beat Jack Hobbs and company. RATING 92 0-111 Racing History 49 3 Saeed bin Suroor Racing History has been unbeaten this season and certainly looks on the upgrade. After winning his maiden in the spring, he was sent off at odds-on to win a competitive Chester handicap back in July. He completed this task with the minimum of fuss, despite starting very slowly from the stalls. He looked above average when winning at Chester, but was generally unfancied when last seen in a Group 3 race at Windsor, where he again proved a decisive winner. He defeated the subsequent winner, Cannock Chase in the process, and also the odds- on Fascinating Rock, who may re-oppose today. He is on the upgrade and is a very interesting contender IF starting more swiftly from the gates. RATING 95 111562 Sumbal 28 3 F-H Graffard Sumbal won his first three races this season, before finishing fifth in the French Derby to New Bay. He finished a neck behind the useful Karaktar last time out in a Group 3 race, which makes him difficult to fancy today. RATING 94 222129 Found 13 3 Aidan O'Brien Found is a top-class filly that has run some excellent races in defeat this season. The highlight of her two- year-old career was an emphatic win in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp, and her only win this season came in a Group 3 race at The Curragh. Her best run this season came when splitting Golden Horn and Free Eagle in the Irish Champion Stakes last month, proving she is capable at the highest level. She ran a reasonable race to finish ninth in the Arc, but may have proved that she has to run a career-best to beat Jack Hobbs today. RATING 96 12211 Jack Hobbs 42 3 John Gosden This magnificent horse finished runner-up to his stable-mate Golden Horn in the Dante and the Derby, before winning the Irish Derby and the September Stakes at Kempton last time out. He is a wonderful mover that travels well, and will appreciate the cut in the ground. He has been saved for an autumn campaign, so should be fresh and well and ready to run for his life. Likely to be very difficult to beat. RATING 100 ==================================================
RACING NEWS.
Air Force Blue was a most impressive winner of the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket last weekend. Aidan O'Brien's star juvenile was sent off odds-on to beat recent Group 2 winner, Emotionless, who trailed in last of the seven runners. Charlie Appleby's colt was found to be lame after the race, and has since been diagnosed with a chip in his left knee, which will require a routine operation. Appleby remains hopeful that the son of Shamardal will recover in time for next season's 2,000 Guineas, for which he is currently best-priced at 25/1. O'Brien struck gold in the Fillies' Mile on the first day of Newmarket's Future Champions Day, as Minding recorded a scintillating success under Ryan Moore. The jockey is not known to offer faint praise, though later described the horse as "a truly exceptional filly." She heads the betting for the 1,000 Guineas after this performance. Trainer Ralph Beckett has suggested that whip regulations should be updated to help prevent over-use of the stick in future races. He has suggested that horses ridden by jockeys who break the rules should be disqualified from first place, but that punters should be paid out on the first-past-the-post result. This would prevent uproar from unhappy punters, but would show jockeys that they must remain within the guidelines at all times, for the ongoing good of the sport. The 1,000 Guineas winner, Legatissimo, is due to race on as a four-year-old, after taking up an engagement at Keeneland in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf later this month. David Wachman's filly has enjoyed an excellent year, winning the Nassau Stakes and the Matron Stakes after her narrow defeats in the Oaks and the Pretty Polly Stakes. Grand National-winning jockey, Jason Maguire, is still in the dark about whether he can return to race riding after a long period of rehabilitation following serious injury. He has been riding out for two months since recuperating from his second spinal operation, following a terrible fall on the eve of last year's Cheltenham Festival. In the fall, he sustained a fractured sternum, had part of his liver removed and was placed in an induced coma. Maguire still awaits confirmation from doctors that he is well enough to begin competitive action. Conditional jockey, Tom Garner, 24, returned home from the Czech Republic this week after falling at the sixth fence in the Velka Pardubicka, the local equivalent of the Grand National. The extraordinary race features a variety of complicated obstacles, and many stretches of plough over 4m 2f. Garner had recently gained celebrity status in Eastern Europe after winning a race in Bratislava without stirrups for the final two-miles of the race. After the big race, Garner joined up with a few leading Flat jockeys to celebrate Pat Cosgrave's stag weekend in Prague. Leading Australian owner, Lloyd Williams, has commented how excited he is to be involved with Aidan O'Brien, having purchased shares in Melbourne Cup-hopefuls Bondi Beach and Kingfisher. Both horses have touched down in Australia, and are currently in quarantine at the Waribee International Horse Centre. Williams paid a visit to Ballydoyle in the summer when visiting his horse, Sea Moon, at John Oxx's stable. Williams said of O'Brien: "Aidan shows the most attention to detail of anyone I've ever met." Also in Australia, Criterion lifted the Caulfield Cup last week, and is now favourite for the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley. In Britain, Criterion finished fifth and sixth respectively in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Juddmonte International Stakes at York. ==============================================
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Post by Kimmy on Oct 23, 2015 16:30:58 GMT
STAT WATCH.
The Jumps season gets a kick start this weekend with action from Cheltenham at their Open Meeting. It will be no surprise to hear that Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobs boast the best strike rates at Prestbury Park, with 14% a piece. Next best are Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins on 13% and David Pipe on 12%. David Pipe generally has his string in decent form at this meeting and he looks likely to have a fair few runners over the weekend. As is sometimes the case, the big guns are not completely firing on all cylinders just yet, so it may also pay to follow the likes of John Ferguson (58%), Neil Mulholland (41%), Brian Ellison (30%) and Emma Lavelle (26%), who have been in great form over the last two weeks. Jockey wise, Ruby Walsh (22%) and Barry Geraghty (19%) know how to ride the Cheltenham undulations with Richard Johnson and Tom Scudamore also boasting a decent strike-rate of 14%. Aidan Coleman and Harry Skelton are absolutely flying at the moment and it would be a surprise if both don't make it onto the score sheet this weekend. One of the highlights of Saturday's card is the Class 2 novices' chase and it's a race which Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls has dominated and he has both ART MAURESQUE and DORMELLO MO entered. John Ferguson's PARLOUR GAMES should also be noted, along with the in-form Dan Skelton's LONG HOUSE HALL . The Flat season may soon be coming to an end, but there's a great card at Doncaster this Saturday and the feature race is obviously the Racing Post Trophy for two-year- olds over a mile. The obvious thing is to look no further than Aidan O'Brien, who has an enviable record in this race. This year, he has BLACK SEA , DEAUVILLE , JOHANNES VERMEER, PORT DOUGLAS and SHOGUN entered. With this embarrassment of riches, it would be a big surprise if this valuable Group 1 prize did not head back over the Irish Sea after the success of Elm Park last year. ======================================================
RACE RATING.
3.45 Doncaster , Saturday, 24 October Racing Post Trophy (Group 1) 1m
41 Black Sea 13 2 Aidan O'Brien After finishing fourth on his debut at Gowran, Black Sea progressed to win his maiden by two lengths at The Curragh thirteen days ago. Black Sea is another handsome son of Galileo that looked impressive when winning under Ryan Moore, defeating an outsider in the process. He looks likely to improve after getting his head in front, and the mere fact that he remains entered at this stage suggests that he is held in some regard. RATING 97 112 Deauville 28 2 Aidan O'Brien Deauville stepped up from his debut win at Listowel to defeat the useful yardstick, Sanus Per Aquam, in the Group 3 Tyros Stakes over 7f at Leopardstown in July. The son of Galileo then finished runner-up in the Royal Lodge Stakes to the unbeaten Foundation by 3/4 of a length, with no apparent excuses. He is clearly a useful juvenile, but it is difficult to see him overturning Foundation on a track and under conditions that are likely to suit his opponent. RATING 98 3114 Johannes Vermeer 20 2 Aidan O'Brien After finishing third on his debut, Johannes Vermeer opened his account at Killarney, before following up in the Group 3 Willis Champion Juvenile Stakes at The Curragh. He had Sanus Per Aquam two lengths back in third on that occasion, suggesting that there is little between him and Deauville. He is proven to stay the mile on soft ground, and has plenty of class. He was slightly disappointing when finishing fourth in the Group 1 Prix Jean Luc Lagadere, although you could have thrown a blanket over the first six home. He is clearly a very useful horse and is likely to be the one to give Foundation the most to think about this afternoon. It will be interesting to see whether Ryan Moore chooses him or Deauville. RATING 99 51 Marcel 54 2 Peter Chapple-Hyam Marcel finished fifth in a reasonable maiden at Newbury, before winning his next race at Newcastle at the end of August. The son of Lawman won by an eased down 3 ¾ lengths on that occasion, suggesting that he is capable of better, but he is certainly pitched in at the deep end here. His trainer knows how to handle a good horse, however, having won this race with Authorized back in 2006. He deserves respect, but is an unlikely winner. RATING 93 31 Mengli Khan 17 2 Hugo Palmer Mengli Khan finished a decent third on his debut at Newcastle, when staying on well all the way to the line over a mile. He then opened his account over an extended mile at Newcastle, when the son of Lope de Vega won an average maiden with the minimum of fuss just over a fortnight ago. His trainer has enjoyed an excellent year, and is not prone to exaggerating his horses' ability levels, but plenty of improvement is required if he is going to extend his sequence this afternoon. RATING 94 1241 Port Douglas 27 2 Aidan O'Brien Port Douglas looked really impressive when winning on his debut at Leopardstown, when going right away at the finish. He was then slightly disappointing in his next two races, as he finished second to Sanus Per Aquam (which gives him ground to make up on Deauville and Johannes Vermeer), before finishing fourth in a Listed race at Tipperary. His best performance to date, however, has been when showing much improved form for the fitting of blinkers when winning the Group 3 Beresford Stakes at The Curragh last time out. This was his first attempt at a mile, and he was clearly not fancied by his stable, as he was sent off at 14/1 and was the third choice, judging by jockey bookings. He is clearly improving, but the blinkers need to work their magic once again if he is going to defeat his stable-mates once again today. RATING 96 41 Royal Reserve 24 2 William Muir Royal Reserve is a son of Duke of Marmalade that showed promise on his debut at Leicester, when finishing fourth, before opening his account at Salisbury last time out. He was eased down to win by a length in what looks an average maiden at this stage. He has to show masses of improvement to beat the better horses today. RATING 91 7136 Shogun 20 2 Aidan O'Brien Shogun finished well behind Sanus Per Aquam on his debut, before blinkers being applied at an early stage to help encourage a maiden victory, which proved shrewd judgement. He ran out the comfortable winner of a maiden at The Curragh, which prompted a step up in grade to a Group 3 race next time. The son of Fastnet Rock ran a reasonable race to finish third of four to Sanus Per Aquam's stable-mate, Herald The Dawn, before running better than his finishing position suggests in the Jean Luc Lagadere. This was an excellent run, as he finished very close to Johannes Vermeer and suggested that a decent- priced win is within his range. He could run well at a big price, though probably won't be good enough to win this. RATING 95 131 Tony Curtis 64 2 Richard Hannon After winning his maiden at Epsom over 7f, Tony Curtis finished third in the Superlative Stakes to Birchwood and Air Vice Marshall. This was an excellent improvement in form, which was confirmed with victory at Salisbury last time out. The son of Rock Of Gibraltar was an emphatic winner of a Listed race over a mile, suggesting that he has proven stamina for today with the ground likely to suit. Further improvement is needed, but he's clearly going the right way. RATING 95 11 Foundation 28 2 John Gosden Foundation won his first two starts at Haydock before completing the hat-trick in the Royal Lodge Stakes last time out. The son of Zoffany is a very imposing chesnut that looks as though he will make a very decent three-year-old, yet he has proven sharp enough to remain unbeaten this year. His win over Deauville last time suggests that he will be difficult to beat here, unless Johannes Vermeer returns to form, or one of the less exposed horses has some explosive ability we haven't yet seen (Black Sea, for example). He is a long-striding galloper that will be well suited by the straight mile at Doncaster and can be relied upon to be produced in top form by Gosden and Dettori. RATING 100 ========================================
NOTEBOOK.
Emma Lavelle is enjoying a good start to the season and she unleashed two potentially smart novice chasers last week. JUNCTION FOURTEEN was a high-class hurdler who didn't go on as connections hoped he would, but he got off to the perfect start at Uttoxeter recently with a very assured display. His jumping was very accurate and he can go on from this. ANDY KELLY also posted some useful efforts over hurdles last term and he made very easy work of his chasing debut at Plumpton. The Sussex track is not the easiest to jump around, but Andy Kelly was foot-perfect all the way. He too is worth stepping up in grade. Brian Ellison's FILM DIRECTOR may not be a star, but he can pick up races. Sent off favourite at Market Rasen recently, he just failed to get up, but he can make amends next time
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RACING NEWS.
The Flat racing season enjoyed its autumn highlight with British Champions Day at Ascot last weekend. Silvestre de Sousa received the trophy for his first jockeys' championship, and has kindly pledged £3,000 of his £25,000 prize to the stalls handlers. He recorded 132 winners, starting at the Guineas Meeting on 2 May. Tom Marquand, 17, collected the apprentices' title with 54 winners, having only passed his driving test two months ago. He was involved in an exciting tussle with Jack Garritty, who pressed him right to the final day after a flurry of winners. On Champions Day, Solow confirmed his status as the best miler in Europe with a comfortable win. He defeated a disappointing Gleneagles, who was only given consent to run at the eleventh hour. His participation was in doubt on account of the soft ground, which has seen him be declared a non-runner in any race since Royal Ascot in June. He trailed in sixth, with Aidan O'Brien suggesting that he regretted running him, but thought the horse needed a prep-race before the Breeders Cup Mile on 31 October. Roger Charlton's Time Test could join Gleneagles at Keeneland for the Breeders Cup Mile after working well under Ryan Moore at Wolverhampton last week. His trainer is very happy with the horse, who was last seen when winning the Joel Stakes at Newmarket. He is currently third favourite for the Grade 1 race, behind the French-trained pair Esoterique and Make Believe. Ryan Moore may have drawn a blank on Champions Day, but then proceeded to record a Grade 1 double with Cannock Chase and Curvy winning at Woodbine. The former won the Canadian International, beating fellow Brit Sheikhzayedroad into third, as well as the E. P. Taylor Stakes on the David- Wachman-trained filly, Curvy. Moore was the first jockey to record three successive wins in the International, having won the race on Joshua Tree (beating Dandino) and Hillstar in the previous two runnings. John Gosden became the first British trainer to pass the £5million barrier with prize money won this season when Flying Officer won the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. His impressive colt, Jack Hobbs, could only finish third at evens in the Champion Stakes, having been inconvenienced by a wide draw. Muharaar was a brilliant winner of the sprint on Champions Day, when defeating the Group 1 winner Twilight Son without breaking sweat. The remarkable son of Oasis Dream will now be retired, rather than making the journey to the Breeders Cup, where his sire was defeated in the final race of his career. Sheikh Hamdan's colt has won four Group 1 races this season, and seven races in total and £1.2m in prize money. Oisin Murphy has been promoted to first jockey for Qatar racing after Andrea Atzeni has vacated the position. Last season's champion apprentice has impressed many this season, especially when showing a cool head to win the Ebor on outsider, Litigant. Richard Johnson has already ridden his hundredth winner this season, after recording a double at Wincanton last week. The jockey looks set to be crowned champion this year, having waited 22 years for the opportunity, but his remarkable efforts have always been eclipsed by Tony McCoy's record-breaking endeavours.
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Post by Kimmy on Oct 30, 2015 17:16:37 GMT
STAT WATCH.
We only covered a couple of races in last weekend's feature, but we did advise the 5/1 winner, Art Mauresque, trained by Paul Nicholls. We also finished second at 7/1 in the Racing Post Trophy with Johannes Vermeer, who finished behind the 33/1 outsider, Marcel. It has been well documented how well Richard Johnson has started the season, with his championship campaign masterminded by A P McCoy's former agent, Dave Roberts. He booted home a further 10 winners last week, which was twice as many as his nearest pursuer, Aidan Coleman. In the north, Peter Buchanan has been in great form, riding 3 winners from just 8 rides last week, helped by the top form of trainer Lucinda Russell, who enjoyed 5 winners herself. Paul Nicholls has started the season well, training 7 winners from just 12 runners last week. Dan Skelton and Philip Hobbs have also been in good form at a healthy strike-rate. There are 7 races live on Channel 4 this Saturday, starting with the 1.45 from Ascot. Emma Lavelle has been in decent form recently and could run JUNCTION FOURTEEN in this handicap chase. He found life tough after winning a couple of novice hurdles, but returned to form with a vengeance at Uttoxeter last time out and should have improved for his seasonal debut. VOIX D'EAU won at Ffos Las over fences last time out and looks on the upgrade for Harry Fry, who takes great pride in his strike-rate. The 2.15 at Ascot is a Listed handicap chase, where the in-form Philip Hobbs stable could strike with MOUNTAIN KING . He won his penultimate start at Perth with some ease and could run well again when fresh. SGT RECKLESS is a useful hurdler who looked impressive when winning over fences at Carlisle last season. He is fit from having run at Yarmouth last month. The 2.50 at Ascot is a Listed hurdle, which was won by SIGN OF A VICTORY last year. Nicky Henderson's gelding prefers better ground, and is a more talented horse than he showed mid-way through last season. He finished only a neck down in the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April and can atone this afternoon. JOLLY'S CRACKED IT recorded two wins over course and distance last autumn, but his jumping continued to let him down when stepped up in grade. More time will have been spent on his schooling this year, so he looks set to feature at the finish. The final televised race at Ascot is run at 3.25 and could provide Rebecca Curtis's IRISH CAVALIER with an opportunity to follow up his recent win. He beat the useful hurdler, Henryville, at Newton Abbot last time out and looks difficult to keep out of the frame. Alan King's NED STARK won 3 races last season and will appreciate the likely conditions at Ascot. He looks well handicapped, having finished down the field at the Cheltenham Festival on his last run. Harry Fry also runs ROCK ON RUBY in the 2.00 at Wetherby, who is attempting 3m for the first time. The former Champion Hurdler has found his niche in longer distance races, and remains a tough and consistent horse despite his 10 years of age. He has finished second in the 2m 4f Aintree Hurdle for the last two-years, and still boasts plenty of class. OUT SAM is far less exposed and has ground to find with the battle-hardened stayers, but won two decent novice hurdles last season before falling in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle at Cheltenham. The 2.30 is a Listed mares' hurdle and could provide STEPHANIE FRANCES with an opportunity to gain compensation after running The New One right the way to the line at Kempton last time out. She has already run at this level and hails from the in-form Skelton stable. INTENSE TANGO won a Grade 2 race last season (and is also fit from the Flat) and looks likely to challenge. The 3.05 is the feature Charlie Hall Chase over 3m. DYNASTE looks an interesting runner, and may appreciate not being in the shadow of his normal challenger, Silviniaco Conti, in this race. He loves decent ground and a flat track, and could run a big race whilst fresh. The race could see the return of the Grand National winner, Many Clouds, who will be popular here. He had some very hard races last season, and this season could be a tough one for him. It may be worth siding with MENORAH as a next best, due to his superb consistency. He won this race last year and is seldom far away in the top championship races for the in-form Hobbs team.
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RACE RATING.
2.00 Wetherby - Saturday, 31 October Bet365 West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) 3m 26y
P2-F15 Ballynagour 146 9 11-9 David Pipe Progressive son of Shantou who first caught the eye when winning the Grade 3 Byrne Group Plate at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival. Followed that with a third in the Grade 1 Melling Chase and second in Punchestown's Champion Chase. Stepped up to 3m last season, finishing a close second to Silviniaco Conti in the Grade 1 Bowl Chase, and also won the Grade 2 Prix La Barka, over hurdles, a month later. That form gives him a shout in this company, but he needs to be up to speed against the best rivals on his first run in four months. RATING 96 01121- Closing Ceremony 259 6 11-9 Emma Lavelle Unexposed and progressive hurdler last season, when building on two handicap wins over 3m, and a good second over 3m 2f, to win the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock in February. All his best form has been achieved on soft ground, so the forecast good going is a question mark, though his stable is in excellent form at the moment. Good each way chance if the rain comes. RATING 95 21P17- Kilcooley 216 6 11-9 Charlie Longsdon Wide-margin win in a Class 2, 2m 4f handicap hurdle at Haydock last December, earned Kilcooley an 18lb rise in the handicap to a rating of 155. He didn't justify that when making mistakes in the more competitive Lanzarote Hurdle next time. Was freshened up for his next run, the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell, which he won, relishing the testing ground. Has class, handles good ground, but needs testing going to be seen at his best. RATING 97 13512- Aqalim 189 5 11-1 John Ferguson Staying on and close second to the classy mare Polly Peachum in the Listed Select Hurdle at Sandown last time, suggesting he has claims for staying 3m around Wetherby in this company. Had won a Class 2 handicap hurdle over distance around Cheltenham and stable has been in great form of late. RATING 99 U6/45- Cloudy Too 224 9 11-1 Sue Smith Decent 3m handicap hurdler three seasons ago, but has plied his trade solely over fences since then, achieving more over the larger obstacles, including a Grade 1-second in the Ascot Chase last year, and when winning the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby (3m 1f). By comparison to his previous form, his last two runs were underwhelming, so has something to prove in this race. RATING 93 U-172P Commissioned 35 5 11-1 John Ferguson Talented juvenile hurdler (second in Grade 2 Adonis H.) who has run well in last two seasons, at distances around 2m. Was staying on well when outpaced by the smart Court Minstrel at Perth in August, so step up in trip is logical, if a step into the unknown. RATING 95 12-01 Goldan Jess 61 11 11-1 Philip Kirby Made all to beat a useful runner-up by nine lengths in a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Cartmel. That was solid form but someway short of what's required to challenge the best of his rivals and connections probably hoping that the combination of race- fitness and proven stamina may just help him pick up one of the smaller prizes. RATING 92 1413P- Grumeti 21F 7 11-1 Alan King Gave connections a memorable day on the Flat earlier this month when winning the valuable Cesarewitch Handicap at 50/1. Won the Grade 1 4YO Hurdle at Aintree three seasons ago, but arguably hasn't built on that form over hurdles or fences subsequently, though has run well on occasion. Step up in trip looks a sound idea given recent Flat exploits, and stable is in good form. Interesting. RATING 98 112- Rock On Ruby 205 10 11-9 Harry Fry Former champion hurdler who reverted to hurdles last season after an abortive campaign over fences previously. Was a slightly unlucky second in the Aintree Hurdle last time, having been badly hampered late on, but had won two 2m 4f hurdles around Cheltenham previously, including the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle, suggesting 3m at a flatter course such as Wetherby may be within his compass. The class horse in the race, but needs to prove his stamina over this distance. RATING 100 5404-1 No Planning 175 8 11-1 Sue Smith Fairly prolific horse, winning nine times from 28 starts to date, though successes have been confined to handicaps. Course and distance win came last December in a handicap hurdle, and though he added another win to his tally last time, off an 8lb higher mark, suggesting he's heading the right way, he looks destined to play for minor honours at best in this company. RATING 93 2/11F- Out Sam 232 6 11-1 Warren Greatrex Winning Pointer over 3m in Ireland, before joining Nicky Henderson last season for a generally successful novice hurdling campaign, winning two fair races before falling at an early stage in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. Now with Warren Greatrex, whose runner won this race last year. Has the stamina but class is unproven. RATING 96 78113- Rolling Maul 198 7 11-1 Peter Bowen Son of Oscar who progressed for stepping up in trip last season, winning Class 2 and 3 handicap hurdles over distance. Ground should be fine, but needs to show more in this race, which is a sizeable step-up in class. RATING 94 23311/ Royal Boy 658 8 11-1 Rebecca Curtis Formerly trained by Nicky Henderson, for whom he ran well in defeat in novice hurdles when not far behind the smart Melodic Rendezvous, and also won the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at the start of last year. Handles good or testing ground, but something of an unknown quantity on first run in 22 months, for a new yard and over a distance 4f further than he has run over previously. RATING 95 71113- Southfield Vic 189 6 11-1 Paul Nicholls Held by Aqalim when third to that horse's second place in the Listed hurdle at Sandown in April, which was probably fair on basis of his good but sub-Listed/Graded class form earlier in the season, which included a Class 2 handicap hurdle win over 2m5f at Wincanton. Stable is in great form, and further improvement cannot be ruled out, but not an obvious winner. RATING 94 F1P7P- Splash Of Ginge 204 7 11-1 Nigel Twiston-Davies Won a Grade 3 handicap chase at Cheltenham's New Year's Day meeting last season, but that was the standout performance in an otherwise patchy season over fences. Interesting that connections have reverted to hurdles, either as a prep race for a staying chase, or a staying-hurdle campaign. If the latter, his previous hurdling form (including Betfair Hurdle win and second in Grade 1 Sefton) gives him a shout, though he has tended to need his first run of the season in past seasons. RATING 96 2751F- The Druids Nephew 203 8 11-1 Neil Mulholland Looked one of last season's better staying- chasers when finishing second in the 3m 3f handicap chase at Cheltenham's November meeting, and winning the Grade 3 3m 1f handicap chase at the Festival. This race looks a likely pipe-opener for this smart chaser, so probable that he will need the run and be one of the also-rans. RATING 94 3783P- Wonderful Charm 189 7 11-1 Paul Nicholls Was highly-tried over fences over 2m 5f+ last season, and another in this race who looks likely to be taking in this race as a stepping stone to better races over fences next time and beyond. Hasn't run over hurdles for three seasons, and was a Grade 2 winner over 2m 4f over timber, so not completely written off. Others look more convincing, though. RATING 93
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RACING NEWS.
Champions Day at Ascot received record low viewing figures this year, with just 367,000 viewers, down by 34% on last year. This is compared to the 800,000 people watching Bargain Hunt on BBC at the same time. Viewing figures were higher for the previous two weekends of racing, with the only possible explanation being the race starts times were earlier than usual, in order to accommodate the Rugby World Cup. The last time the BBC covered the meeting in 2012, they recorded 1.1m viewers. Barry Geraghty rates the returning My Tent Or Yours as possible opposition to the unbeaten Faugheen, who will be bidding to win his second Champion Hurdle next year. Nicky Henderson's star has missed a season, having finished a close second to Jezki in the 2014 Champion Hurdle after pulling very hard. After a recent visit to Seven Barrows, Henderson disclosed that he feels that Geraghty may suit My Tent Or Yours very well, as he may be able to relax him in his races. Richard Johnson continues his phenomenal start to the season with another four-timer at Carlisle. The 38-year-old is enjoying a superb start to the season, which has been mapped out by Tony McCoy's former agent, Dave Roberts, to virtually ensure Johnson's dominance, barring injury. The jockey has stated that he will continue to ride even if he wins the championship, despite his advancing years. He is almost 40 winners clear of his nearest pursuer, Aidan Coleman, who is also enjoying a prolific year, having joined forces with trainer John Ferguson. Aidan O'Brien has dismissed any criticism of his handling of 2,000 Guineas winner Gleneagles, having run him on soft ground in the QEII Stakes on Champions Day. The trainer has admitted that he made a mistake in running the colt on easy ground, which resulted in him being beaten for the first time since his debut (bar his disqualification in the Prix Jean Luc Lagadere). Throughout the summer, Gleneagles had been withdrawn when the ground was anything but fast. He has reported that the horse returned home from the race in perfect fettle, and intends to run him in the Breeders' Cup Classic on 31 October. Former Irish champion jockey, Davy Russell, will soon find out when he can return to race-riding, having broken his arm and foot in a fall at Cork in August. He is keen to return as soon as possible to begin his association with leading owner Chris Jones, who has his horses with various trainers around Ireland. Channel 4 Racing presenter Alice Plunkett's high-profile husband, William Fox-Pitt has been injured in a fall in France and remains under sedation. The former World Number One event rider suffered a head injury when falling at a three-day-event at Le Lion d'Angers in the cross-country element of the competition. British team coach, Yogi Breisner, has revealed that the rider remains in an induced coma so that doctors can monitor his progress, though he is stable and comfortable. Trainer Bob Baffert has stated that his association with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is like 'travelling with the Beatles', such is the hype that surrounds the horse that he trains. American Pharoah was the first horse to win the Triple Crown for 37 years, before suffering his first defeat at Saratoga last time out, in a race considered to be 'the graveyard of champions'. He is expected to appear next in the Breeders' Cup Classic on 31 October, for which he is ante-post favourite.
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Post by Kimmy on Nov 27, 2015 15:21:24 GMT
RACING NEWS.
Jonathan Pease saddled his final winner as Siyoushake won the Listed Prix Ceres at Fontainebleu last week. The French trainer is retiring after a glittering career, in which he has trained great horses, such as Breeders' Cup winner Karatkonte and the prolific Maxios. Other Group 1 winners trained by Pease include Bago and Spinning World, who like Karatkonte and Maxios, were owned by the Niarchos family. Sire Des Champs has made a winning comeback after nearly two years on the sidelines. He was last seen when finishing fourth in the 2013 Lexus Chase, but still looked as though he retained his ability when winning a Listed chase at Thurles. He is yet another star trained by Willie Mullins to bolster his excellent string. Al Ferof is being aimed at the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon after a good racecourse workout at Warwick for new trainer Dan Skelton. The popular grey has moved stables after two disappointing runs last season for Paul Nicholls. Skelton remarked that the gelding needed the workout to help him achieve full fitness and prepare him for Huntingdon. Sprinter Sacre looked back to somewhere near his best when winning the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham recently. The attractive gelding cruised to the front under new jockey Nico de Boinville, travelling with a zest and ease that evaded him throughout last season. He looks set to contest the best two-mile races this season once again, after two win-less seasons. Trainer Nicky Henderson looked very emotional after this win, as it has taken so much effort to help the French-bred gelding regain his form. Silvestre de Sousa claimed his first major prize during his stint riding in North America last weekend, as he captured the Grade 3 Red Carpet Handicap, despite an objection from Triple Crown- winning rider, Victor Espinoza. The win was just his second in the US, where he has been riding since he collected the jockeys' championship at Ascot last month. The Cheltenham Gold Cup is without a sponsor, as Betfred have pulled out of their deal, as a direct consequence of the Betting Partners Initiative. This is supported by Cheltenham's owner, Jockey Club Racecourses, who insist that bookmaking sponsors donate to the levy, for the long term good of the sport. This has not been met with approval by many leading bookmakers, with only Betfair, Bet365 and 32Red currently complying with donations deemed sizeable enough by JCR. Cue Card was back to his brilliant best to win the Betfair Chase at Haydock last weekend, when easily sweeping aside dual-race winner Silviniaco Conti. Cue Card is yet another leading chaser to have benefitted from a wind-operation, and sauntered clear between the last two fences to win on the bridle under a jubilant Paddy Brennan. The prolific jockey was surprisingly winning his first Grade 1 race since 2011, and says that Cue Card feels every bit as good as his previous Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Vautour made a winning comeback at Ascot last weekend, but was far from impressive under Ruby Walsh. Vautour was a flawless novice for Willie Mullins last season, but made some jumping mistakes through the Stella Artois Chase, and gradually only beat Ptit Zig a length, when in receipt of 5lbs. Walsh commented after the race that Vautour was lacking full fitness, but he tended to jump left at some of his fences, which may hinder his chances in the King George Chase, if repeating the habit. Willie Mullins has commented that his star mare, Annie Power, is unlikely to run before the Cheltenham Festival, after a setback in her training. The popular chesnut looks set to attempt to uphold the stable's stranglehold on the OLGB Mares' Hurdle, which Mullins has won for the last seven years with Quevega and Glen's Melody. Paddy Power Gold Cup winning jockey Ian Popham has divulged that he was very close to quitting the saddle after a series of injuries kept him repeatedly on the sidelines since his first pelvic fracture in 2011. Three months after his first injury, he broke his pelvis again, and then his collarbone twice upon his return. Just days after coming back from his second clavicle injury, he broke his jaw and lost two teeth in another fall, which made him consider his future very strongly. Thankfully, he kept going, and looked back to his excellent best when steering Annacotty home to win the Cheltenham feature for Alan King. ======================================================
Race Ratings 3.00 Newbury, Saturday, 28 November Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) 3m 2f
F121-1 Saphir Du Rheu 27 6 11-12 Paul Nicholls Saphir Du Rheu enjoyed a slightly troubled time over fences last season, but came good at Aintree on his final run, when winning the Mildmay Chase very impressively. This was just a few weeks after finishing a battling second in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham. His trainer feels that the run was the making of him, as he had to jump fluently and accurately at speed, which stood him in good stead for his return to fences. He reappeared to win a Listed chase at Carlisle without making an error, so hopefully his former issues are long behind him. He is a superbly classy horse who can collect this major prize en route to greater things over fences. RATING 100 1235-1 Valseur Lido 21 6 11-6 Willie Mullins Valseur Lido looked at his most impressive on his final start last season when stepped up to three miles for the first time. He had previously looked as though he may have peaked, but the step up in trip clearly suited him when winning the Champion Novices' Chase at Punchestown in April. Favourite, Don Poli failed to give his running on that occasion, but he still deserves plenty of respect from his strong stable. RATING 93 751F-6 The Druids Nephew 28 8 11-5 Neil Mulholland The Druids Nephew is a useful handicap chaser whose finest hour came when winning a Grade 3 handicap chase at last season's Cheltenham Festival. He has warmed up for the season with a run over hurdles at Wetherby, but he doesn't look that well handicapped in comparison to the likes of Bobs Worth, who was top-class not that long ago. RATING 91 754P-F The Giant Bolster 213 10 11-5 David Bridgwater The Giant Bolster tends to reach his peak after Christmas, and usually saves his best form for the Gold Cup. He has an incredible level of ability, but is pretty inconsistent and it's difficult to see him winning at a time of year that we know doesn't particularly suit him. RATING 82 220F-9 Houblon Des Obeaux 28 11-5 Venetia Williams Houblon Des Obeaux ran his best race in last season's Hennessy, when finishing second to Many Clouds under top weight. He hasn't won a race in nearly two years, and could be in the handicapper's grip after a series of excellent efforts throughout last season. Like a lot of his trainer's horses, he loves soft ground and is sure to try his best, so don't be surprised to see him staying on at a decent price once again. RATING 96 5284-1 Smad Place 26 8 11-4 Alan King Smad Place was just beaten in the 2014 RSA Chase, but has struggled to hold his own at the highest level since then. He won a graduation chase at Kempton last time out (beating Fingal Bay), but his overall form doesn't look quite good enough. RATING 93 8P0-1 Bobs Worth 21 10 11-2 Nicky Henderson Bobs Worth is a very interesting contender, as he has come down the weights so much since winning this race, the Gold Cup and the Lexus Chase in 2012/13. After time on the sidelines, he reappeared to win the Betfred Hurdle at Aintree earlier in the month, but what he achieved that day is debateable, as he beat a non-stayer that lacked match practice in Simonsig, and the favourite, Purple Bay, failed to run his race. Having said that, his rating has dropped him to such an attractive mark that he has to enter calculations. RATING 99 2U8-33 Fox Appeal 28 8 11-1 Emma Lavelle Fox Appeal has been a consistent horse since winning a Grade 2 novices' chase at Ascot two years ago. He can always be relied upon to run his race, but probably lacks the class of the Gold Cup horses in the race. He ran an excellent race at Ascot recently to finish third, but is not that well handicapped, due to his consistency. RATING 92 11d17-2 The Young Master 27 6 10-13 Neil Mulholland The Young Master has just been bought by the Waley-Cohens, supposedly as a Grand National type. He improved throughout last season, and ran a respectable race to finish second to Coneygree on his seasonal reappearance. He has a reasonable weight, stays well and is yet to peak. RATING 98 P7P-77 Splash Of Ginge 14 7 10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies Splash Of Ginge is a very inconsistent horse, but has won three good races during the past two seasons. He is difficult to fancy as he tends to either win or run poorly, plus he is running against some top-class chasers this afternoon. RATING 82 2115P- If In Doubt 236 7 10-12 Philip Hobbs If In Doubt is another useful member of JP McManus's string of horses. He won two races last season as a novice, including a Listed chase at Doncaster, but could only finish fifth in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, which gives him plenty of ground to make up on the protagonists today on his seasonal debut. RATING 90 73PB-4 Ballycasey 210 8 10-11 Willie Mullins Ballycasey's finest hour came when beating Don Cossack in the Dr JP Moriaty Novices' Chase at Leopardstown in 2014, but he has struggled to run to that level consistently since. He won a chase over 2m 4f on heavy ground last season, but has usually run below the level required to win this race. RATING 90 830-84 First Lieutenant 16 10 10-10 Mouse Morris First Lieutenant used to be a regular in the big races, and has also dropped down the handicap recently. He ran well at Clonmel to finish fourth to Roads To Riches earlier in the month, and could run on into a place at a decent price. RATING 97 45-9P Cloudy Too 17 9 10-8 Sue Smith Cloudy Too hasn't won since running away with the Roland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby two years ago, and looks to have plenty to find today. RATING 83 5P3-2 Fingal Bay 26 9 10-7 Philip Hobbs Fingal Bay is an impressive Grade 1-winning hurdler whose form over fences has been below what you would have hoped for. He was easily held by Smad Place at Kempton last time, and must run to the level of his form over hurdles if he is to have any chance today. RATING 89 7U3-71 Benbens 34 10 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies Benbens recorded his first win for eighteen months when winning a veterans' chase at Aintree last time out. He had run regularly and fairly well through last season, but his form is probably below what is required for this race. RATING 86 P33U7- Al Co 224 10 10-4 Peter Bowen Al Co won the 2014 Scottish National at Ayr, but has struggled since the handicapper reassessed him. He is a thorough stayer who tends to prefer decent ground, which he is unlikely to have for his seasonal reappearance. RATING 84 1418-6 Ned Stark 28 7 10-3 Alan King Ned Stark enjoyed a successful first year over fences last season, and could be a well handicapped horse. His biggest win came in a Grade 2 race at Wetherby in the New Year, and he has been dropped a few pounds in the weights after a couple of disappointing efforts. Could run well at a decent price, from a light weight. RATING 95 433271 Urano 33 7 10-3 Willie Mullins Urano is a consistent horse that returned to winning ways last time out, when winning a Listed chase at Wexford. He must improve to feature here. RATING 90 640R-3 Theatre Guide 29 8 10-2 Colin Tizzard Theatre Guide's best ever run came when finishing third in this race two years ago, in what was probably not as strong a renewal as today's race. He dead-heated at Kempton just over a year ago, but has been quite inconsistent since then, and is difficult to fancy. RATING 85 ========================================================
STAT WATCH.
The best results achieved last weekend were at Exeter, where we had a 9/2 and an 11/8 winner. We head to Carlisle for Staxxxxch this Sunday, where there are six races on offer and the ground is currently deemed heavy. Carlisle is a very stiff track that demands strong stamina, as the horses finish up a steep hill. Last week Harry Fry, Alan King and Philip Hobbs all trained five winners, as well as David Dennis and Oliver Sherwood both training three winners each. Fry trained a treble at Ascot, where we saw his Rock On Ruby return to form in the Coral Hurdle, despite giving weight away all round. Harry Skelton was the most prolific jockey last week with six winners, including the Betfair 'Fixed Brush' Hurdle at Haydock for his brother, Dan. JP McManus's new retained rider, Barry Geraghty, also enjoyed a treble at Ascot and rode four winners in total last week, as did Wayne Hutchinson and Greatwood Hurdle- winning conditional Harry Cobden. In the 12.50 at Carlisle, live on Racing UK, Paul Nicholls could send ALIBI DE SIVOLA up north to build on his second- place finish at Chepstow. His jumping didn't quite hold up under pressure when making his hurdling debut recently, but he can certainly make amends on a track that looks as though it will suit. ANOTHER BILL is likely to be involved in the finish, having won two bumpers at Ayr last season. He finished second on his hurdling debut, and has an excellent chance of going one better should Albi De Sivola not turn up. The 1.20 is a handicap hurdle, where DEEP RESOLVE catches the eye. He won two hurdle races for Alan Swinbank last season, and has been readied for today by running on the flat through the summer. He handles heavy ground and remains unexposed. HARTFORTH finished third at Hexham last time out over 3m and drops back in trip for this race today. He could put that stamina to good use when climbing the hill, and must have an each-way chance. The 1.50 is a 2m novices' chase, where ASO is a very confident selection, having finished a narrow second to Willow's Saviour at Warwick last time out. This was an excellent run, as Willow's Saviour had won the Ladbroke Hurdle in the past, and is very much a horse to follow over fences this season. Aso is proven on heavy ground, having won at Haydock last year in a bog. ON TOUR is the next best selection, having won at Exeter last time out, which is a similarly stiff track. He stays well and is sent by the in-form Evan Williams stable. The 2.20 is a 2m novices' hurdle, where VIRNON could follow up his course and distance win from earlier in the month. He was a lowly-rated maiden on the flat, but looks as though he could keep improving over hurdles, assuming he stays on this testing ground. CORNBOROUGH won on his hurdling debut at Ayr recently, and handled soft ground on the flat. His stamina on this stiffer track must be taken on trust, but he clearly has some ability in what looks an open race. The 2.50 is Mares' Listed Chase over 2m 4f. VROUM VROUM MAG is a confident selection, despite her 10lb penalty. She has been unbeaten since joining the Willie Mullins stable from France, including five Graded victories. She has won from 2m 1f to 2m 6f, and is owned by the all-conquering American Rich Ricci, who has taken European National Hunt racing by storm. She has won each of her races very easily, and appears to have no chinks in her armour. She is very unlikely to be a betting proposition, but looks as though she could be the class horse on show at the meeting. Venetia Williams' horses tend to flourish when the ground is soft and PEPITE ROSE is no different. She was tenacious when winning at Aintree last time out, when fighting off the persistent challenge of two other horses between the last few fences. She should stay all the way to the line, and receives 6lbs from Vroum Vroum Mag, which should make it difficult to keep her out of the first three. The 3.20 is an amateur riders' handicap hurdle over 2m 1f. DUSKY BOB is hardly improving at the age of ten, but did manage to win last time out. He has risen in the weights as a consequence, but is proven under the conditions and represents the powerful Brian Ellison stable. PRAIRIE LAD proved his stamina when winning over 3m 2f on his last start at Kelso almost a year ago. He looked on the upgrade on that occasion and could still be unexposed, as long as he is fit enough to do himself justice after a lengthy absence.
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Post by Kimmy on Dec 4, 2015 18:56:30 GMT
RACING NEWS.
Apprentice champion jockey, Tom Marquand is in the running for the Young Sports Personality of the Year. Previous winners of the coveted trophy include Wayne Rooney, Tom Daley and Andy Murray. The seventeen-year-old rose from obscurity throughout last season, winning a thrilling tussle for the championship with Jack Garritty in the final week of the season. Dougie Costello is set to change his attention to riding on the Flat, having been a successful Jump jockey for many years. The 33-year-old has joined forces with trainer Karl Burke, as he can now regularly ride at 8st 10lb, and has enjoyed his time spent Flat racing so far. He became disillusioned with the time spent on the road in the winter months while he was riding over Jumps, and is joining the likes of Graham Lee, Jim Crowley and Timmy Murphy, who also now ride exclusively on the Flat. Thistlecrack has emerged as a genuine contender for the World Hurdle after winning the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury's Hennessy meeting. He continues the fine start to the season for trainer, Colin Tizzard, who has moved his horses to brand new stables on his Dorset farm. Cue Card was a most impressive winner of the Betfair Chase the week before. Thistlecrack is also rated as a top-class horse by winning jockey, Tom Scudamore. He defeated last year's World Hurdle winner, Cole Harden, who ran slightly disappointingly. Theatre Guide also finished second in the Hennessy for the stable, having run a career-best to finish third two years ago. Victoria Pendleton pulled up in her first ride in a point-to-point, when riding for her mentor, Alan Hill. The Betfair-sponsored rider pulled up two fences from home on Minella Theatre at Black Forest Lodge, near Exeter, but was left 'absolutely buzzing' after the experience. She has stated that she can hardly wait for her next chance. The 2012 Champion Hurdle winner, Rock On Ruby, has been retired after suffering a tendon injury. He was found to have an injury after winning his final race at Ascot the previous week, which now appears a fitting end to a superb career. The ten-year-old won 12 of his 27 races and over £600,000 for his group of owners, and will spend his retirement in Seaborough with his trainer's wife, Ciara Fry, who rode him every day. Sprinter Sacre is bypassing the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in favour of the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. Nicky Henderson does not wish to take on Un Des Sceaux at Sandown, and feels that his former Champion Chaser could be even better if waiting until after Christmas. His former Arkle Chase winner Simonsig is more likely to line up in the Tingle Creek, having finished second to stable-mate Bobs Worth on his first run for nearly three years at Aintree recently. The popular US dirt horse, Tonalist, won the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct after a strong late challenge under John Velasquez. Last seen when finishing fifth to American Pharoah in the Breeders' Cup Classic, the colt won the valuable race in a driving finish by a neck, beating stable-mate, Red Vine, in the process. From Newmarket, Jeremy Noseda sent Mister Brightside to Hollywood Park in the US, but was at a loss to explain the ride given to his horse by Hall Of Fame jockey, Kent Desormeaux. The horse suffered trouble in running when ridden from the rear, which was not how the trainer wished for the horse to be ridden. ===========================================
RACE RATING.
3.00 Sandown, Saturday, 5 December Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) 2m
21234- JOSSES HILL 240 7 11-7 Nicky Henderson Josses Hill was a useful hurdler who has never achieved quite as much as you would have hoped over fences. He won at the Grand National meeting over hurdles two seasons ago, before running some reasonable races over fences as a novice last season. After finishing second to Ptit Zig on his chasing debut, he opened his account at Doncaster, but failed to win again throughout the season. He has never looked entirely natural over fences, which may be why his form is inferior over the larger obstacles, even though he clearly has plenty of ability. It is difficult to see him being good enough to challenge the favourites in this race on his seasonal debut. RATING 93 1183-5 MR MOLE 20 7 11-7 Paul Nicholls Mr Mole is an enigmatic chaser whose finest hour came when winning the puzzling Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last season. This was his fourth successive win, the previous three of which were achieved by making the running. At Newbury he almost refused to start, and lost plenty of ground before conceding to jump off and race. After Sire De Grugy and Uxizandre parted with their jockeys the race fell into his lap, but he has been outclassed since then at the highest level. He is a sound jumper, and Sandown is likely to suit him, but it's difficult to see him beating his stable-mate today. RATING 91 P18143 SAVELLO 20 9 11-7 Dan Skelton Savello was a useful chaser in Ireland with Tony Martin before joining Dan Skelton in the Autumn. He won his last race in Ireland at Ballinrobe in August, and has run twice in this country for his new stable. More recently, he finished fourth in a hurdle race to subsequent Greatwood Hurdle winner, Old Guard, before finishing third in the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham behind Sprinter Sacre. This was a reasonable run when conceding weight to the winner, but he has still got plenty to find with the better horses today. RATING 94 1111/2 SIMONSIG 28 9 11-7 Nicky Henderson Simonsig was a revelation in the early part of his career, winning both the Neptune Novices' Hurdle and the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham, demonstrating a high cruising speed and effortless jumping. His only defeats (when he has stood up) came when finishing second here four years ago, before his second-place to stable-mate Bobs Worth in the Betfair Hurdle last time out at Aintree. This was the grey gelding's first race for over two-and-a-half years, so this defeat can be excused. It is difficult to assess what he achieved on this occasion, as he was running over 4f too far, and was beaten by a former top-class chaser very much on the downgrade, who has since finished well beaten from a low handicap mark in the Hennessy. There can be no doubt that he has been a great horse, but it is premature to fancy him for a race of this quality without prior assurance that he is back to his best over fences. RATING 97 U14F-5 SIRE DE GRUGY 32 9 11-7 Gary Moore Sire De Grugy enjoyed a stellar year in 2013/14, culminating in a fabulous win in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Since then he has endured many training setbacks, which have led to interrupted preparations. It is to the credit of connections that they managed to win a chase at Chepstow last season, when he conceded lumps of weight to his three rivals. Since then he has mainly struggled, including when well beaten in the Haldon Gold Cup last month after a routine jumping error at the open ditch. Gary Moore is in great form, and has stated that his horse is in better fettle than he was for his previous start, but this must be taken on trust. All in all, he is difficult to fancy. RATING 92 2425-2 SOMERSBY 20 11 11-7 Mick Channon Somersby is a long term regular in the top two-mile races every season. He has not won since the Haldon Gold Cup in 2013, but can always be relied upon to run his usual race, which collects him plenty of place prize-money. It is hard to see him winning this, but he is likely to finish nearer the front than the back. RATING 96 4131-4 SPECIAL TIARA 27 8 11-7 Henry de Bromhead (Ire) Special Tiara is a very consistent Irish chaser who could be the each-way value in this race. He always runs his race, as proven with last season's wins in the Desert Orchid Chase and the Celebration Chase, over today's course and distance. He possibly prefers better ground, but is seldom far away at the death, and loves Sandown. RATING 98 03-223 THIRD INTENTION 14 8 11-7 Colin Tizzard Third Intention, like Somersby, runs in all the big races, hence his decent rating. He seldom manages to get his head in front, but is quite often placed at a decent price behind some useful horses. He finished second to Vibrato Valtat in the Haldon Gold Cup on his penultimate start, before finishing third to Vautour and Ptit Zig at Ascot more recently. It is hard to see him winning, however, against the best chasers around, despite the incredible form of his Dorset stable. RATING 95 F111-1 UN DE SCEAUX 219 7 11-7 Willie Mullins (Ire) Un De Sceaux's only defeat in fourteen starts came when falling at Thurles last season, but even Faugheen has shown this season that no horse is invincible (since Frankel retired). He was an outstanding novice chaser last season, winning the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham and then following up at Punchestown. His trainer's hardest job is keeping his best horses apart from competing with one another! A few of Mullins' horses have needed their first runs, so if he is ever going to be beaten, it is on testing ground and a stiff track today. RATING 99 1424-1 VIBRATO VALTAT 32 6 11-7 Paul Nicholls Vibrato Valtat is a model of consistency, having never finished out of the first four in 23 races. He produced a career-best performance when winning the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter last month, where the stiff track and soft ground proved no hindrance to him. He is the value in the betting this afternoon, as he is match-fit and has been trained for this race since winning at Exeter. He is an excellent jumper that can be ridden in any fashion, and will stay up the hill on a track he was most impressive at last season, when winning the Henry VIII Chase on this card a year ago. RATING 100 =================================================
NOTEBOOK. At Huntingdon recently the Oliver Sherwood- trained pair THE ORGANIST and ICING ON THE CAKE both caught the eye. The former was an impressive winner of her first hurdle race, having won her only bumper in the spring before being sold. She looks likely to stay further than 2m 4f, and looks as though a decent career over obstacles could await the daughter of Alkaadhem. Icing On The Cake bounded off in front in a later race, and was then out-sprinted in the home straight. He looks an attractive galloper who could be worth noting when stepped up to at least 2m 4f in the near future. He has won an Irish point-to-point, so clearly stays, and could be a decent price if reappearing soon. On the same day at Ascot, EPHRAIM caught the eye on his hurdling debut for Charlie Mann. He was pitched in at the deep end for his first run, but he ran on well at the end of the race and looks likely to run even better next time out.
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STAT WATCH.
Last week's Carlisle preview proved to be a very successful one for Staxxxxch, as we selected three winners throughout the day. We started with Albi De Sivola winning at 5/2, followed by On Tour's win at 4/6, with the treble brought up by Virnon, who won at 5/4. Hartforth ran a sound race to finish third at 12/1, to help compliment an excellent day for this feature. We return to Saturday's televised action this weekend, live on Channel 4 Racing, from Aintree and Sandown, including action over the Grand National fences. During the past week, Willie Mullins began to reassert his authority on British and Irish jump racing, recording 7 winners from 19 runners. Fellow Irishman Gordon Elliott trained 5 winners in the week, as did Lambourn trainer, Warren Greatrex. Dan Skelton hit form with 4 winners last week, the same total achieved by Evan William's stable near Bridgend. His rider, Paul Moloney, was in great form with 6 winners last week, as was Brian Hughes and Gavin Sheehan. Starting with the 1.40 at Aintree, televised action kicks off over the National fences for the Becher Chase over 3m 2f. Paul Nicholls won the Grand National a few seasons ago with Neptune Collonges, with UNIONISTE looking as though lightning could strike twice with another grey horse owned by John Hales. He has top-weight, which is a massive burden in the likely soft ground, but is a very classy horse who is proven to stay and handle deep conditions. FOXBRIDGE represents the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable and has a very low weight, in contrast. He is a very consistent horse who was only beaten a neck at Cheltenham last time out, and has an excellent profile as he stays well, handles heavy ground and has never fallen. The 2.15 at Aintree is a Listed chase over 3m 1f. DON POLI is the class horse in the race, having won the RSA Chase at Cheltenham last season. He represents the in-form Mullins stable and is making his seasonal debut, but is only six, and is therefore likely to have some improvement left in him. MANY CLOUDS needs no introduction, having won the Grand National last season. He ran a reasonable race on his seasonal debut, and is a tentative next-best selection after fighting out some very tough races last year. The 2.25 at Sandown, is a Listed handicap hurdle over 2m. DEVILMENT represents the most prolific trainer in the country, John Ferguson, having run well in the Greatwood Hurdle last time out. This race represents a drop in grade for the son of Cape Cross, with his best run to date being when beating the perennial bridesmaid, Karezak, at Cheltenham in October. SOME PLAN could make his debut for Paul Nicholls in this race, having been moved from Tom George. He won 2 races last season and hinted at becoming a useful horse, before disappointing behind Douvan at the Cheltenham Festival. Being a 7-year-old, he is quite old for a second-season hurdler by modern standards, but remains unexposed and is likely to have improved for the move to Ditcheat. The 3.00 at Sandown is the feature Tingle Creek Chase, a Grade 1 race over 2m, and is usually supported by the best two-mile chasers in Europe. The horse that fits this description the best is Willies Mullins's UN DE SCEAUX, who won the Arkle Chase last season. His only defeat in 14 starts came when falling at Thurles last season, with seasonal highlights coming when winning at Cheltenham and Punchestown. VIBRATO VALTAT may be worth a wager, however, with his fitness assured, having won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter with ease a month ago. The grey is very consistent, having never finished out of the first four in his life, and looks as though he has improved since last season. If ever he is going to beat Un De Sceaux, it is likely to be today, as he has suggested that he'll stay further if needed, and very soft ground holds no fears for him. His main rival is likely to be a very short price, making Vibrato Valtat the first choice for this race. We then return to Aintree for the Grand Sefton Chase, run at 3.20 over 2m 5f. This race is also run over the National fences, and can provide another Mullins star, VALSEUR LIDO , with a winning opportunity. He has plenty of weight, but remains on the upgrade after winning at the Punchestown Festival last time out. He has bypassed last week's Hennessy Gold Cup for this race, and is proven to like very soft ground. Mouse Morris's DROMNEA is down the bottom of the weights, and has been running consistently in defeat since winning two novice chases after Christmas last year, and is a tentative next-best selection. The 3.35 at Sandown, the London National over 3m 5f, is a really hard slog for horses, so they must have excellent stamina reserves and a willing attitude. LEO LUNA is a thorough stayer who is proven on heavy ground, and has been dropped 3lbs by the handicapper since winning his penultimate start at Fontwell. CAROLE'S DESTRIER has also been given a chance by the handicapper, as he has been dropped 6lbs after two disappointing efforts this season. He is sent by the in-form Neil Mulholland stable, who is enjoying an excellent start to the season. Carole's Destrier won a Listed chase last season, but was outclassed at Aintree and in the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton most recently, so should appreciate dropping back into a handicap today ============================================
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Post by Kimmy on Dec 11, 2015 16:56:35 GMT
RACING NEWS.
Al Ferof made a winning comeback when taking the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last weekend for new trainer, Dan Skelton. He was sent the horse by owner, John Hales, on the advice of the horse's former trainer and Skelton's mentor, Paul Nicholls. Al Ferof now heads to the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, with Skelton commenting 'I'm honoured to have him, I owe Paul so much.' Paul Nicholls has hinted that he may put blinkers on Silviniaco Conti in the King George Chase in an attempt to rekindle his enthusiasm. The consistent chesnut usually sports cheekpieces, but ran below par in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last time out. Nicholls won the King George some years ago when putting blinkers on See More Business, which was the making of the subsequent Gold Cup winner. Pont Alexandre has returned from a 998-day lay-off to win a 2m 6f beginners' chase at Punchestown for master-trainer, Willie Mullins. The horse was last seen when finishing third to The New One in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March 2013, but was likened to Coneygree by his trainer after the emphatic success. The horse may reappear over Christmas with his seasonal target being the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Djakadam helped Mullins to a treble on the day when winning his first Grade 1 race, the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown. The Gold Cup runner-up was competing over an inadequate trip of 2m 4f, so set a relentless gallop, which helped to see off his opposition, including stable-mate Valseur Lido, himself no back-number. The Gold Cup will be the gelding's long-term aim once again. Don Poli showed great courage to hold off the Grand National winner, Many Clouds last weekend when winning the Betfred Chase at Aintree. He was a four-length winner at the line, after defying a slipping saddle, which caused jockey Bryan Cooper to endure some uncomfortable moments on the dual- Cheltenham Festival winner. Oliver Sherwood was delighted with the run of Many Clouds, who was forced to concede 5lbs to the winner, and showed all his previous class and zest to confirm his wellbeing. Sire De Grugy bounced right back to form to win the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown, and in doing so completed a 240,239/1 six- time for Gary Moore at the two-day Sandown Park meeting. The likeable chesnut was winning just his second race since a remarkable season in 2013/14, which culminated with victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. He is now taken off every day by usual jockey, Jamie Moore, who never allows the horse to work in the same place two days running, so that he never gets bored. Connections were made to sweat for two minutes following a stewards' enquiry, as the winner collided with the runner-up, Special Tiara, when jumping the last fence, which was seen to have caused interference to the second-placed horse. The result remained the same, although connections of Special Tiara are deliberating whether to appeal or not at present. Paul Moloney will face a period on the sidelines after breaking his leg in three places at Ludlow last week. Evan Williams' stable jockey could not have been in better form previously, as seven of his previous nine rides had won. The rider fell at the first fence in a two-mile handicap chase, but thankfully the horse was fine. Moloney had already ridden 45 winners this season, and has already been operated on to repair the fractures in his tibia, fibula and ankle. Three-time Group 1 winner, Dylan Mouth, is to join Marco Botti from his brother Stefano, who is based in Italy. The colt has been almost unbeatable on home soil, but has struggled in two visits to Ascot in the past two seasons. The son of Dylan Thomas has so far won eleven of his fourteen starts, and including the prestigious Premio Roma at Capannelle last time out ============================================
RACE RATING.
1.50 Cheltenham, Saturday, 12 December Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) 2m 4½f
12F- CHAMPAGNE WEST 315 7 11-0 Philip Hobbs Champagne West won two novice chases at Cheltenham before Christmas last season, with his best run coming when finishing second to Ptit Zig in the Dipper Novice Chase. He has not run since falling in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown, so is having his first start since the end of January today. He has been given a chance by the handicapper in this race and has always looked as though he has a touch of class. RATING 100 51-813 SOUND INVESTMENT 28 7 11-12 Paul Nicholls Sound Investment is a very likeable chaser who has continued to improve throughout his career. He finished a close-up third in the Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham four weeks ago, where his accurate jumping continued to keep him in the race, despite his weight-burden. He would prefer decent ground, but can be relied upon to try his hardest if the ground is soft. Outstanding each-way chance, assuming the weight isn't too much of a burden once again. RATING 99 F-4215 IRISH CAVALIER 28 6 11-6 Rebecca Curtis Irish Cavalier finished fifth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month having won at Newton Abbot previously. He won a handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, and comes here on the same handicap mark as his last race. This seems his ideal trip, and he is versatile regarding ground conditions. RATING 91 653-P9 JOHNS SPIRIT 28 8 11-5 Jonjo O'Neill Johns Spirit has been inconsistent since winning a handicap chase here over a year ago. He had previously won the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2013, proving his liking for the course and distance. Johns Spirit has looked out of form to the naked eye, but you can never discount one of Jonjo O'Neill's horses, especially when we know this horse acts very well at Cheltenham. RATING 92 145-32 BUYWISE 28 8 11-2 Evan Williams Buywise finished a half-length second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month, and has gone up just 4lbs for that excellent run. He has been in good form, and is proven at the highest level, despite not winning that often. He is tough and consistent and must have an excellent chance of finishing in the first six today. RATING 98 P10F-1 ANNACOTTY 28 7 11-2 Alan King Annacotty won the Paddy Power last time out on his first run for Alan King, having previously recorded a Grade 1 success for Martin Keighley. He looked back to his best last month with some bold jumping and has been raised a reasonable 5lbs by the handicapper. He should have similar conditions today, and looks very likely to run his race. RATING 97 40254 TEXAS JACK 42 9 11-0 Noel Meade Texas Jack is capable of some useful form, but has not won since January 2014, despite having quite a few chances. He is often tried in the best races, but he has not shown that he is up to winning a race of this nature for some time. RATING 88 95/1-1 SALUBRIOUS 33 8 10-12 Paul Nicholls The form of Salubrious is quite difficult to evaluate, despite winning his last two races. He was having his first race for thirteen months when winning a graduation chase at Carlisle last time, so he is entitled to improve for the run. He won the competitive Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' race at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago, so he is proven in these tough handicaps. Could be anything. RATING 96 F1U/5- MOZOLTOV 592 9 10-12 Willie Mullins Mozoltov has clearly been difficult to train and has had jumping issues, but he is quite a useful horse. He could make his comeback from a near 600- day absence in this race, and Willie Mullins' horses have occasionally needed their first runs this season, which are two negatives. He is clearly a class act, however, if his jumping holds up. RATING 92 1-1316 ART MAURESQUE 28 5 10-8 Paul Nicholls Art Mauresque has a decent profile, winning seven of his fourteen races to date. He finished sixth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month, which was a decent effort from a fairly inexperienced horse. He has improvement left in the tank, but today may not be his day. RATING 95 4694-1 TENOR NIVERNAIS 22 8 10-8 Venetia Williams Venetia Williams is represented by Tenor Nivernais, who was a very easy winner at Ascot last month, which prompted a 12lb rise in the handicap. He stays well and handles soft ground, but had been quite inconsistent before winning last month. His trainer's horses are famed for excelling when the going gets soft and stamina is required in abundance. RATING 93 461-41 LITTLE JON 15 7 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies Little Jon looked as though he could become a decent prospect last season, but his novice chase campaign was derailed when he ran out when leading at Cheltenham halfway through the season. He has bounced back to his best, however, to win two of his last three races, suggesting that there could be more to come this season. He should cope with the trip and ground and could run well at a decent price. RATING 94 13-711 DOCTOR PHOENIX 22 7 10-5 David Dennis Doctor Phoenix has won his last two races for the David Dennis stable, but has gone up 9lbs in the handicap and could find this more competitive race more challenging. He is on the upgrade, however, and it is likely that there is further improvement left in him. RATING 92 P426B PASS THE HAT 62 8 10-4 Arthur Moore Pass The Hat is an experienced Irish chaser whose recent profile does not promote him as the best candidate to carry your money in this race. He was brought down at the fourth fence on his last run in October and has plenty to find. RATING 87 143-00 GENEROUS RANSOM 28 7 10-2 Nick Gifford Generous Ransom won two decent handicap chases last season, but has been beaten out of sight in two starts this season so far. He is very hard to fancy after trailing out the back in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out. RATING 86 3356-5 TURN OVER SIVOLA 49 8 10-1 Alan King Turn Over Sivola is a very experienced handicap chaser, that is almost always campaigned at two miles. He comes here after three disappointing races, having previously hardly finished out of the first three. Connections will be hoping that the step up in trip helps him today, but the distance helping his chances must be taken on trust. RATING 85 P11-5P SHANTOU MAGIC 31 8 10-1 Charlie Longsdon Shantou Magic comes here after two disappointing runs, having previously won two races at the end of last season. He has been disappointing in much lower grade races than this recently, suggesting he is likely to struggle to win this. RATING 84 12P-11 VILLAGE VIC 36 8 10-0 Philip Hobbs Village Vic has won his last two races this season, albeit on decent ground. He won his bumper on heavy ground, but has been campaigned on mainly good ground this season, winning at Musselburgh most recently. The Philip Hobbs stable is in great form, so he could have a chance if the ground does not deteriorate too badly. RATING 91 ========================================
STAT WATCH.
There is some terrific racing this weekend and all eyes will be on Cheltenham for what will be their last meeting before the New Year. The second race on Saturday's card is usually a very good novice chase over two and a half miles. There have been some very good past winners, including Exotic Dancer (2005), Don't Push It (2006), Tidal Bay (2007), Reve De Sivola (2010) and Oscar Whiskey (2013). All of these winners have something in common and that is that they excelled over further in time and some have proved to be champions when stepped up in trip. Of this year's entrants, MORE OF THAT is the obvious favourite and he has top-class form over further, having landed the World Hurdle in 2013. Jonjo O'Neill really rates this son of Beneficial. The Jackdaws Castle handler is also the only trainer to have sent out more than one winner of this race in the last ten years. Interestingly, Paul Nicholls, who saddles Arpege D'Alene and Sametegal, does not have a great record in this particular contest. Harry Fry ( THOMAS BROWN ) and David Dennis ( DOCTOR PHOENIX ) have the most eye-catching strike- rates of the trainers currently engaged. A mares' handicap hurdle is the last race on the card and it could be a very interesting heat indeed. Three runners take the eye as they are trained by in-form trainers and are the type of horse their handlers excel with. BLUE BUTTONS (Harry Fry), BOBBLE BORU (Venetia Williams) and PASS THE TIME (Neil Mulholland) could all run well for their in-form yards. Richard Johnson is soaring ahead in the Jockeys' Championship and he remains in great form, boasting a near 35% strike-rate over the last seven days. Taking into account other jockeys who have had at least fifteen rides over the last week, Liam Treadwell (26%), Harry Skelton (25%) and Danny Cook (18%) are the ones to look out for. Trainer wise, the results over the last week make fascinating reading. Paul Nicholls is having a bit of a quiet spell and his win strike-rate stands at just a little over 11%. Trainers who have saddled over ten runners in the last week with much more impressive figures are Gary Moore (55%), Lucinda Russell (50%), Philip Hobbs (35%) and Sue Smith (35%). ===============================================
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Post by Kimmy on Dec 18, 2015 14:18:33 GMT
Old Guard has continued his meteoric rise through the hurdling ranks by winning the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham last weekend. Paul Nicholls' four-year-old won his third race of the season, having won two races at Cheltenham already this season. He was ridden by stable-jockey, Sam Twiston- Davies, for the first time this year, having triumphed under the Club-sponsored conditional rider, Harry Cobden. Old Guard defeated the free-running Triumph Hurdle winner Peace And Co, who was 121-15 SAPHIR DU RHEU 6 11-7 Paul Nicholls Saphir Du Rheu impressed over both hurdles and fences last season, and returns to the smaller obstacles after finishing fifth in the Hennessy last month. He won the Cleve Hurdle last year in very testing ground, before a brave effort in the World Hurdle, when the winner stole the race under a good ride from Gavin Sheehan. Saphir Du Rheu has returned to hurdles today as his trainer feels he is still too weak to cope with chasing at the highest level. This horse could emulate his owner, Andy Stewart's Big Buck's in returning to the smaller obstacles with great success. RATING 100unable to finish his race off after pulling himself to the front under Daryl Jacob. This has forced bookmakers to shorten Faugheen at the head of the Champion Hurdle betting, while Old Guard has been put in at between 12/1 and 20/1. On the same card, Richard Johnson's decision to diet to ride Village Vic at 10st was justified as he held off the challenge of his stable-mate, Champagne West, after making all the running. Village Vic has been highly regarded by the Philip Hobbs stable throughout his career, but has endured time off through injury for long periods. Champagne West was returning from an eleven-month lay-off, and looks sure to improve for his second-place in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup.u More Of That has received quotes from bookmakers for the Gold Cup after maintaining his unbeaten record over fences, at Cheltenham. Jonjo O'Neill's chesnut had only one horse to beat in the race after the outsider of the three runners fell three fences from home. He was very impressive in beating the useful Sametegal, however, and is now as short as 6/hh1 for the RSA Chase, or 33/1 for the Gold Cup. Nicky Henderson has reported his delight at the temperament change shown by his former stable-star, Sprinter Sacre. The popular dark gelding is described by his trainer as being 'feisty and aggressive' again, ha121-15 SAPHIR DU RHEU 6 11-7 Paul Nicholls Saphir Du Rheu impressed over both hurdles and fences last season, and returns to the smaller obstacles after finishing fifth in the Hennessy last month. He won the Cleve Hurdle last year in very testing ground, before a brave effort in the World Hurdle, when the winner stole the race under a good ride from Gavin Sheehan. Saphir Du Rheu has returned to hurdles today as his trainer feels he is still too weak to cope with chasing at the highest level. This horse could emulate his owner, Andy Stewart's Big Buck's in returning to the smaller obstacles with great success. RATING 100ving been unusually relaxed throughout last season. Henderson commented that when the horse won his last race, the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham, it was "one of the most special days, not just in racing, but in my life." Sprinter Sacre could reappear on Boxing Day at Kempton in the Desert Orchid Chase as his next target. Highland Reel was given yet another exceptional ride by Ryan Moore to win the valuable Hong Kong Vase, beating the previous winner of the race, Flintshire. Highland Reel has been busy travelling the world in the past few months, winning Arlington's Secreteriat Stakes in the US, before finishing third in Melbourne's Cox Plate. Flintshire boasts an exceptional record across the globe, having finished runner-up to Goldenv Horn in the Arc back in October, and is likely to travel to Dubai in the spring. Coneygree looks on course to return to the racecourse after Christmas having recovered from a lost shoe and a pulled muscle. Trainer's wife, Sara Bradstock, has reported that whilst the gelding hasn't worked yet this month, having bypassed the Hennessy Gold Cup due to his issues, he is likely to take up an option in either the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown or the King George on Boxing Day. Coneygree is currently priced at 7/1 for the Kempton feature, behind 5/2 favourite, Don Cossack. Trainer Colin Tizzard has reported that his stable-star, Cue Card, has enjoyed an untroubled preparation for Kempton, and that he will compete there in the form of his life, having won the Charlie Hall Chase and the Betfair Gold Cup already this season. My Tent Or Yours could make a long-awaited comeback at Leopardstown on 29 December, having missed last season with a tendon injury. The JP McManus-owned gelding excelled himself the season before, when narrowly beaten in the Champion Hurdle by Jezki, having run too keenly for the majority of the race. He will be ridden by Barry Geraghty for the first time this season, upon the retirement of AP McCoy.
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Post by Kimmy on Dec 18, 2015 15:05:32 GMT
NOTE BOOK.
POBBLES BAY showed his best form to date when winning at Ffos Las this week, and could be one to keep an eye on whilst the ground is heavy. He had shown some promise when finishing third at the Welsh venue twice last season, but this was a career best. Pobbles Bay won by just a head, so hopefully this should prevent the handicapper from punishing him too severely, so take note whilst the ground is testing. ROBIN OF LOCKSLEY won a maiden hurdle at Southwell the previous day, when going clear after the last hurdle to win decisively. Trainer Dan Skelton remarked afterwards that he is a better horse now that he's learning to settle in his races, so he could also be worth keeping an eye on whilst conditions are heavy. The five-year-old has shown steady progress throughout his career, and should make a decent chaser in time. CHAMPAGNE WEST made a very pleasing comeback after injury when finishing second to his stable-mate, Village Vic, in the Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham last weekend, and can improve on this form through the winter. Considering he had fallen on his last start back in January, he ran a very respectable race, with the protagonists from the Paddy Power Gold Cup all behind him. He is yet to win beyond 2m 5f, but should stay 3m, as the first race he won was an Irish point- to-point. The Alan King stable has been in excellent form lately, and he will have been delighted to get SEGO SUCCESS back in the winners' enclosure, helped by the application of cheek-pieces. The combination of dropping back to three miles on testing ground seemed to help last weekend at Doncaster, so keep him on your side unless the handicapper over-reacts after this return to form.
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Post by Kimmy on Dec 18, 2015 15:12:43 GMT
There is some terrific racing this weekend despite most eyes being already fixed on the traditional Boxing Day and Christmas delights. Ascot's pre- Festive meeting always throws up a few clues ahead of the big festivals in the Spring and the Graduation Chase on Saturday is worth analysing closely. Unbelievably, Paul Nicholls has won the last five renewals of this race with Gwanako, Aerial, Cedre Bleu, Easter Day and Irish Saint last year. All of these horses were proven performers and it is highly likely that LE MERCUREY can triumph for the same connections as twelve months ago. The Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle is always a great race and Nick Williams's REVE DE SIVOLA will be attempting to land this race for an unprecedented fouth time in a row. That would be a remarkable feat but the statistics are in his favour. The only other trainer who comes anywhere near Nick Williams in as much as success in this race is concerned is Paul Nicholls and he has the interesting hurdles-convert, SAPHIR DU RHEU. Jumps trainers who have had fifteen or more runners over the last seven days and have the best strike-rates are headed by the impressive Dan Skelton (41%). Dan has enjoyed a wonderful start to his training career and things only look set to get better. Willie Mullins is always one to be feared when sending horses across the Irish Sea and he lies just behind Dan on 40%. Alan King is next best on 31% and although they have only sent out seven runners apiece, both Nicky Richards and Warren Greatrex boast an impressive strike-rate of nearly 43%. Jockeys to look out for who are currently on fire include Wayne Hutchinson (35%), Leighton Aspell (31%) and David Bass (30%). Harry Skelton has only had fourteen rides in the last seven days, but he can't be ignored with a 43% strike-rate. With his brother Dan in such good form, they could improve their already impressive strike-rates over the Festive period. All-weather racing over the winter months may not provide the best quality action, but it can still pay to keep on the right side of trainers in form. Over the last seven days, trainers who have had ten or more runners include William Haggas and Roger Varian (40% each) and JR Jenkins (30%).
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 8, 2016 12:43:36 GMT
RACING NEWS.
There have been some harsh punishments dealt to leading jockeys over the period, with Tom Scudamore receiving a seven-day ban plus a fine when winning the Veterans' Chase on Soll on 2 January. The jockey was most unimpressed with the disciplinary measure, hinting that the rules were flawed. He suggested that whip regulations should be different for a five-furlong sprint on fast ground, compared to a heavy-ground slog over fences in the height of winter. Likeable northern jumper Seeyouatmidnight added to his win over fences at Kelso by winning the Grade 2 Dipper Chase at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. He made the running under Brian Hughes to see off the challenges of Blaklion and Le Mercurey. Seeyouatmidnight has lowered the colours of some decent horses in his time, with his best run of last season coming when finishing seventh in the World Hurdle. Champion jockey-elect Richard Johnson recorded his 3,000th winner at Ludlow in the New Year. The 38-year-old has finished second to Sir Anthony McCoy no less than sixteen times in his career, but looks set to register his first win in the championship this season. He has enjoyed a phenomenal year, thanks to the good form of the Philip Hobbs string and outside support from McCoy's former contacts, such as Jonjo O'Neill. Former champion John Francome has warned that racing has an uphill struggle to recover the terrestrial television viewers it has lost in the past few years under Channel 4 Racing's coverage. Francome quit the show after Highflyer Productions lost the contract to produce the show, which has led to viewing figures dropping off at an alarming rate. Qatar Racing's manager, David Redvers, has suggested that this is due to the heavy emphasis on betting-related features, rather than including content about popular horses or leading players. Channel 4 has since lost the contract to televise racing in this country, as ITV will begin to show the sport from January 2017 in a £30m deal, lasting four years. Over the festive period Willie Mullins recorded his first Tolworth Hurdle success with the emphatic winner, Yorkhill. The gelding cruised to the second-last flight under a motionless Ruby Walsh, who had to push him out after the last, as he hit the front and ran up the hill at Sandown in gruelling conditions. His Cheltenham Festival target is yet to be decided. Paddy Brennan was another rider to suffer, despite a phenomenal effort to encourage Cue Card up to lead at the post in the King George Chase on Boxing Day. The race had looked as though it was destined to go to Vautour for much of the race, but he tired on the run-in to allow Colin Tizzard's popular horse to lead in the shadow of the post. Brennan was given eleven days off and a reasonable fine for riding in what was deemed to be a 'win at all costs' manner. Just four days after Cue Card's finest hour, joint-owner Bob Bishop passed away, aged 83. Despite his age, this was a great shock to his friends and family, with Colin Tizzard describing him as 'the straightest and fairest man I ever met'. Bishop had lived an interesting life, beginning as a professional footballer, then working for the police force before becoming an under-writer. Needless to say, he was renowned as a great storyteller. Plumpton Racecourse was forced to abandon their recent Sussex National meeting after persistent rain through the day allowed just three races to be run. Water remained standing on various areas of the track, forcing officials to cease racing. This was met with criticism from leading course-trainer, Chris Gordon, who questioned the decision of holding the meeting when the wet weather had been forecast correctly. ==============================================
2.50 Chepstow.
TOP RATED
11 JABOLTISKI 48 4 11-0 Philip Hobbs Jaboltiski won on his debut in France on the Flat in September 2014, and has since won both his hurdle races for Philip Hobbs this season. He made the most of his main rival's last-flight stumble when winning his first race over hurdles at Huntingdon, as he went on to win easily. He defeated the previous winner, Duke Street, on this occasion, though he may have won regardless of jumping errors. Jaboltiski then followed up over an extended 2m at Exeter on heavy ground, which suggests that a dour, galloping track like this on heavy ground will be within his capabilities. On the upgrade and hard to oppose. RATING 100 ======================================
NOTEBOOK.
SALUBRIOUS ran well in the Sodexo Silver Cup at Ascot recently on just his third start over fences. Previously, he had won a novices' chase last season before suffering an injury, which ruled him out of the remainder of the season. After this narrow victory, he returned to win a graduation chase at Carlisle in November, despite the ground being heavy and the extended three-mile trip. He is clearly a thorough stayer, but is lightly-raced and can be expected to improve over fences throughout the season. He is very versatile regarding ground conditions and has already won at the Cheltenham Festival over hurdles. BEARS RAILS won his first race of his career, at Fakenham recently, when stepped up to three miles for the first time and racing over the bigger obstacles. He had previously finished well beaten in a number of races, but this run suggested that there could be more to come from the son of Flemensfirth, who represents the in-form Colin Tizzard stable. He defied top-weight to land the spoils, and could be another to keep improving with age and experience. COEUR BLIMEY was a surprise winner of a Listed bumper at Ascot recently, perhaps simply because he hails from the small Devon stable of Sue Gardner, and was taking on horses from major yards. The son of Winged Love travelled well into the race, passing Ballyandy, who had already won two races, including a Listed race at Cheltenham on his previous start. His trainer does well with her small string, and is sure to place this impressive horse to her advantage in the future. OUT SAM was another to run well recently when finishing third to the fortunate winner, Le Mercurey in the Grade 2 Mitie Novices' Chase at Ascot. He is yet to entirely convince over fences, but was a promising hurdler that probably just lacks racing experience.
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STAT WATCH.
The festive period has been an exciting one for horseracing fans, despite conditions being very testing thanks to Storm Frank. Plenty of meetings have been lost to the weather, with Plumpton's Sussex National meeting abandoned after just three races last week. We have selected some proven soft and heavy ground-loving horses this week, as stamina and a tenacious attitude will be essential for any race while the ground is this testing. Richard Johnson continued his fine form this season with another five winners last week, while Nicky Henderson's jockeys have been in fine form as well, with David Bass and Nico de Boinville riding four winners each last week. Philip Hobbs has been in great touch as well, training seven winners from sixteen runners, while Venetia Williams is taking full advantage of the testing conditions with her string, who won five races last week. Her horses traditionally fare well when the ground is heavy each year. Channel 4 is scheduled to televise three meetings this Saturday, starting with the 1.45 at Wincanton. Venetia Williams could run JOHN LOUIS, who won six weeks ago on soft ground and looks unexposed. He can defy a 10lb rise in the weights with victory today. KASSIS is an alternative for Jamie Snowden, having won over today's trip of 2m 4f at Bangor last time out. He is up just 1lb for the half-length success and deserves another chance. The 2.20 at Wincanton is a handicap hurdle, where the in-form Harry Fry could strike with MOUNTAIN EAGLE. This winning Irish pointer finished second to the useful Robin Of Locksley at Southwell last time out on heavy ground, suggesting he could be about to strike for the first time in this country. ALTESSE DE GUYE looks a solid next-best selection having finished second to Fry's Desert Queen at Ascot last time out. She has been freshened up since then and looks reasonably handicapped. Heading east to Kempton, the 2.35 is their feature handicap, the 2m 5f Lanzarote Hurdle. Fry could strike again with UNOWHATIMEANHARRY, who comes here after winning three consecutive races for the stable. He looks a tough horse based on his win at Cheltenham last time out, which suggested there could be more to come this season, even at this higher level. YALA ENKI can make the frame for Venetia Williams, having won at Exeter in November on soft ground. He ran reasonably to finish fifth in the valuable Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock last time out and can perform better this afternoon. The 3.10 at Kempton is a 3m handicap chase, where JAVERT can win his third race of the season. He has impressed with some excellent jumping twice this season already, though it would help him if no more rain was to fall. He is up 7lbs for his latest win, but looks like a decent horse. LOCAL SHOW has also risen in the weights, but was most impressive when winning at Newbury last time out. Ben Pauling is a trainer going places and can enjoy further success with this horse. The 3.45 is a 2m handicap hurdle, where HEATH HUNTER catches the eye for David Pipe (3 winners last week). He is best on heavy ground and is reasonably handicapped on his best form, which is over 2m on a flat track, like today. QASSER won his penultimate race at Taunton and finished second at Doncaster last time out. He has won on heavy ground in the past and can defy a 7lb rise (the winner, who may oppose, up 14lbs for the win). The final televised meeting is the rescheduled Welsh National meeting from Chepstow. The 2.50 is the Grade 1 Finale Junior Hurdle for four-year-olds. They will need to be very precocious to cope with very heavy ground, and the dual winner JABOLTISKI could win his third race for Philip Hobbs. He coped with similar conditions when winning at Exeter last time out, and looks to be a tenacious sort. FIXE LE KAP won his first race in this country for Nicky Henderson, and could be the horse to give Jaboltiski the most to think about. He proved his liking for testing conditions when winning at Newbury last time and looks unexposed. The 3.25 is Chepstow's biggest race, the Coral Welsh National over 3m 51⁄2f. MIDNIGHT PRAYER is a tentative selection in what is likely to be an attritional race. He won the National Hunt Chase in 2014, but has been lightly raced since. He is a sound-jumping front-runner with his stamina proven, and the Alan King yard in fine form this season, having plundered two of the major handicap chases already this winter. UPSWING has been in better recent form for Jonjo O'Neill, having finished second at Cheltenham last time out in November. He is a thorough stayer that could plug on into a place at the death.
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 15, 2016 12:28:57 GMT
RACING NEWS.
America's super-horse of 2014, California Chrome, has returned to winning ways after a nine-month lay-off due to a bruised tendon. The popular chesnut was last seen when finishing second to Prince Bishop in the Dubai World Cup, which is his next assignment once again. His famous purple colours have now been replaced with 'chrome grey' silks and matching blinkers, as his minority owner has been bought out by Taylor Made Farms. Veteran trainer Art Sherman said after the race that California Chrome will improve for the race, and that his majority owner, the outspoken Perry Martin, insists that he now heads to Dubai for the $10m feature. The Willie Mullins duo Faugheen and Nichols Canyon are set for a rematch in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on 24 January. Faugheen's only career defeat came in the Morgiana Hurdle, when he lacked his usual zest and finished second to his stable-mate, who has already won six Grade 1 races himself. Faugheen's owner, Rich Ricci, is keen to see his star hurdler on the track again, so he may be forced to compete against Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire once again. Don Cossack is to have a school over fences at Thurles this week to perfect his jumping, after his fall at the second-last fence in the King George. Jockey Brian Cooper was insistent that he could have won the race at Kempton, which was won by Cue Card in the dying strides of the race. Trainer, Gordon Elliott, has played down suggestions that the horse fails to show his best at the Cheltenham Festival, as his record to date is one fall in the RSA Chase and a third-place in the Ryanair Chase last season. Adrien Du Pont became Paul Nicholls' first winner of the Finale Junior Hurdle at Chepstow last weekend after defying the heavy ground to record a second success in Britain. The big, strong four-year-old was sent off a short-priced favourite, but looked in trouble after Chic Name kicked clear up the home straight. Nick Scholfield timed his challenge well, however, to record a welcome success for the Ditcheat stable, which endured a quiet time over Christmas. Adrien Du Pont is now priced at 20/1 for the Triumph Hurdle. On the same card, Mountainous recorded a phenomenal second success in the Coral Welsh National in desperate conditions. Just six of the twenty horses that set out finished in the gruelling marathon race, with the winner adding to his 2013 success, when running in the name of his trainer's father, Richard Lee. Evan Williams, who trained the runner-up, was quick to compliment Kerry Lee on her training performance, stating that to win two Welsh Nationals with a horse is an incredible achievement. Shotgun Paddy ran a very game race to finish third, as he was conceding 13lbs and 12lbs respectively to the winner and runner-up. In France, Christophe Soumillon has won another jockeys' championship, the Cravache d'Or, after the stewards disqualified the winner of the Prix Gladiateur, run earlier in the season, in which Soumillon finished second, after failing a drugs sample. Soumillon therefore tied the championship with Pierre-Charles Boudot, who ensured that he could not lose the Cravache d'Or by winning the final Flat race of the season at Pau on New Year's Eve. There is likely to be further disruption for National Hunt racing fans as the wet weather continues to ruin the prospect of meetings being run around the country. While dryer, colder weather is forecast long-term, many courses have had to abandon during the past week or so, as continual rain has left ground saturated. Even courses such as Taunton and Huntingdon, that usually provide decent ground when everywhere else is heavy, have suggested that they can't take much more rain this week if their meetings are to go ahead.
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 15, 2016 12:29:20 GMT
RACING NEWS.
America's super-horse of 2014, California Chrome, has returned to winning ways after a nine-month lay-off due to a bruised tendon. The popular chesnut was last seen when finishing second to Prince Bishop in the Dubai World Cup, which is his next assignment once again. His famous purple colours have now been replaced with 'chrome grey' silks and matching blinkers, as his minority owner has been bought out by Taylor Made Farms. Veteran trainer Art Sherman said after the race that California Chrome will improve for the race, and that his majority owner, the outspoken Perry Martin, insists that he now heads to Dubai for the $10m feature. The Willie Mullins duo Faugheen and Nichols Canyon are set for a rematch in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on 24 January. Faugheen's only career defeat came in the Morgiana Hurdle, when he lacked his usual zest and finished second to his stable-mate, who has already won six Grade 1 races himself. Faugheen's owner, Rich Ricci, is keen to see his star hurdler on the track again, so he may be forced to compete against Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire once again. Don Cossack is to have a school over fences at Thurles this week to perfect his jumping, after his fall at the second-last fence in the King George. Jockey Brian Cooper was insistent that he could have won the race at Kempton, which was won by Cue Card in the dying strides of the race. Trainer, Gordon Elliott, has played down suggestions that the horse fails to show his best at the Cheltenham Festival, as his record to date is one fall in the RSA Chase and a third-place in the Ryanair Chase last season. Adrien Du Pont became Paul Nicholls' first winner of the Finale Junior Hurdle at Chepstow last weekend after defying the heavy ground to record a second success in Britain. The big, strong four-year-old was sent off a short-priced favourite, but looked in trouble after Chic Name kicked clear up the home straight. Nick Scholfield timed his challenge well, however, to record a welcome success for the Ditcheat stable, which endured a quiet time over Christmas. Adrien Du Pont is now priced at 20/1 for the Triumph Hurdle. On the same card, Mountainous recorded a phenomenal second success in the Coral Welsh National in desperate conditions. Just six of the twenty horses that set out finished in the gruelling marathon race, with the winner adding to his 2013 success, when running in the name of his trainer's father, Richard Lee. Evan Williams, who trained the runner-up, was quick to compliment Kerry Lee on her training performance, stating that to win two Welsh Nationals with a horse is an incredible achievement. Shotgun Paddy ran a very game race to finish third, as he was conceding 13lbs and 12lbs respectively to the winner and runner-up. In France, Christophe Soumillon has won another jockeys' championship, the Cravache d'Or, after the stewards disqualified the winner of the Prix Gladiateur, run earlier in the season, in which Soumillon finished second, after failing a drugs sample. Soumillon therefore tied the championship with Pierre-Charles Boudot, who ensured that he could not lose the Cravache d'Or by winning the final Flat race of the season at Pau on New Year's Eve. There is likely to be further disruption for National Hunt racing fans as the wet weather continues to ruin the prospect of meetings being run around the country. While dryer, colder weather is forecast long-term, many courses have had to abandon during the past week or so, as continual rain has left ground saturated. Even courses such as Taunton and Huntingdon, that usually provide decent ground when everywhere else is heavy, have suggested that they can't take much more rain this week if their meetings are to go ahead.
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 15, 2016 12:30:47 GMT
RACE RATING TOP RATED 3.00 WARWICK.
1-1 BORN SURVIVOR 37 5 11-4 Dan Skelton He cost his current connections £220,000 at the sales after winning his sole Irish point-to- point, and he lived up to his star-billing when winning his only start in this country in December. He won a maiden hurdle over course and distance in impressive style, and is rated as a really decent horse by Dan Skelton. He is big and strong for a five-year- old, and could take some beating at a venue his trainer likes to support. RATING 100
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 15, 2016 12:33:47 GMT
With Wincanton abandoned and a few non-runners caused by the heavy ground last Saturday, we had reduced chances to succeed. Yala Enki winning for us at 11/4 was our best result, so we will try to enhance that record, despite being likely to encounter similar conditions this weekend. Richard Johnson is ever- present at the head of our hot jockeys list this season, riding 4 winners from 18 rides last week, backed up by Sam Twiston-Davies, whose main stable, Paul Nicholls, has returned to form himself with 4 winners from 8 runners last week. Venetia Williams trained 3 winners from 13 runners, and the Irish duo Gordon Elliott (4/14) and Willie Mullins (3/6) continue to set a high standard. Starting off with Channel 4's televised meeting at Warwick, the 1.50 is an exciting novices' chase. The ground is likely to be heavy, which ABITOFAPUZZLE will love. She is a tough and robust daughter of Tamure that looked most impressive when winning on her chasing debut at Exeter last time out after a distinguished hurdling career. She is a horse you can rely on, and should be followed for the season. PONT ALEXANDRE is likely to be all the rage, having been a 'talking horse' two seasons ago. He missed last season through injury, but returned with a win over fences at Punchestown last time out to confirm his wellbeing for Willie Mullins. The 2.25 is a 3m 2f handicap hurdle, where Evan Williams' POBBLES BAY looks of interest. He caught the eye when winning on his handicap debut at Ffos Las last time out, when he needed every yard of the 2m 4f trip to get on top. He is proven in deep ground and is up just 7lbs for the narrow success. TOP BILLING is an alternative for Nicky Richards, even though his winning run stopped at Doncaster last time out. He has proven his ability to give weight away on heavy ground, which should help his chances today. The 3.00 is a Grade 2 novices' hurdle, where local trainer Dan Skelton's BORN SURVIVOR can continue to repay his owners, who paid £220,000 for him at the sales after winning an Irish point-to-point. He was an emphatic course and distance winner last time out, and is very highly regarded at home. Mullins' THOMAS HOBSON is likely to be well fancied after winning at Punchestown last time out, and should offer the greatest threat. He is also proven under the testing conditions likely today. The final race televised from Warwick is the Betfred Classic Chase at 3.35. This is a 3m 5f marathon that is likely to demand extreme stamina reserves and a tenacious attitude. The in-form Alan King has a horse entered that ticks all of these boxes, with SEGO SUCCESS bidding to follow up his win in the novice chase on this card twelve months ago. He won twice at Warwick last season, and proved that he stays when finishing fifth in the 4m National Hunt Chase last season. FOXBRIDGE could be an alternative for Nigel Twiston-Davies, having won three races in heavy ground last season. He was narrowly denied at Cheltenham in November, and is up just 2lbs for that run. He finished fifth in similar conditions in the Midlands National last season, so could go well at a decent price. The sole race from Chelmsford is a 5f handicap, run at 2.05. JUDICIAL was most impressive at Kempton last time out, when returning to form. He has won four races from five starts, with his hot-headed temperament blemishing his almost faultless profile at Goodwood in between. He goes well fresh and is very well managed by Julie Camacho. RED STRIPES could be an alternative, having won over course and distance just after Christmas. Our final meeting to cover is at Wetherby, where the ground is also likely to be heavy. The 2.10 is a 2m handicap chase, where SIR VALENTINO could return to winning ways now that he returns to handicap-company. He was outclassed behind Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy last time out at Kempton, but deserves another chance back in this grade, as he is up just 4lbs since his last win. WHISPERING HARRY could go well at a decent price, having done well in novice chases last season. He has lost his way slightly, but has hinted at a return to form recently, despite tipping up last time out. The 2.45 at Wetherby is a 2m 31⁄2f handicap hurdle, where another progressive Skelton youngster looks as though he could make the grade. MASTER JAKE was imported after winning point-to-points in Ireland and has won two novices’ hurdles at small venues over 2m in heavy ground this season. He steps up in trip and class today, but has been given a very fair mark of 128 by the handicapper, which Skelton could exploit today. Our next best selection is ROYAL GUARDSMAN, who battled well to win in testing ground at Newbury last time out, and has been freshened up by trainer Ali Stronge since. He is up in the weights, but looks unexposed.
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 22, 2016 12:29:06 GMT
RACING NEWS.
Paul Moloney hopes to return to the saddle as soon as February, having broken his tibia, fibula and ankle in a fall at Ludlow on 2 December. Evan Williams' stable-jockey had ridden 45 winners before falling at the first flight of hurdles last month. Whilst he is not 100% fit at present, he should be fit to ride in just a couple of weeks. Don Cossack made a winning return to action at Thurles recently, having fallen in the King George Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. Gordon Elliott's gelding fell when staying on behind Cue Card and Vautour, and is rated as having a great chance in the Gold Cup by Cue Card's rider, Paddy Brennan. Cue Card is as short as 5/1 for the Cheltenham feature, although he is rated as a very different type of horse to Brennan's previous Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Brennan would dearly love to win his second Gold Cup for owner, Jean Bishop, as she lost her husband, Bob, just four days after the King George win. Brian Hughes has voiced suggestions that whip regulations for Jump jockeys should be relaxed, after a rise in the number of cases in feature races when jockeys were fined and banned after tight finishes. Hughes suggests that by raising the number of permitted uses of the stick from eight to ten could be prudent, given that horses are much harder to motivate over longer distances and in more testing ground than horses encounter on the Flat. Hughes himself enjoyed a blemish-free year in 2015, withnodisciplinaryactiontakenagainsthim for his use of the stick. The BHA has suggested that any relaxing of the current regulations is quite unlikely. Roger Varian has taken charge of the first daughter of King George VI Stakes winner, Danedream. A two-year-old filly by superstar Frankel has joined his growing yard, which also welcomed last year's King George winner, Postponed, towards the end of last season. The Frankel filly is named Nothing But Dreams and has been broken in and is currently in light training. Victoria Pendleton's mount in the Foxhunters' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival is likely to be announced soon by her sponsors, Betfair. Pendleton has not gained as much experience in point-to-points as her mentors would have hoped, as heavy ground and injuries to horses have prevented her from taking up more rides. She is continuing to ride out for trainer Alan Hill on a daily basis, as well as receiving coaching sessions from jumping guru, Yogi Breisner. In Australia, Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Michelle Payne will no longer be attached to the Darren Weir yard, after she has become busier with other rides and off-course action. She is now being booked to ride all over the world, having been signed up to compete in this season's Shergar Cup at Ascot. She has not ridden for Weir since November, and is now a regular competitor at Group 1 level. Paul Nicholls has suggested that Ptit Zig could return to running over hurdles after failing to compete in his last two steeplechases. He is being aimed at the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on 30 January, and could compete in the World Hurdle if that race goes to plan, as he has proven to be fairly unnatural over fences. Nicholls has also welcomed Aux Ptits Soins back to his yard, after the horse had endured sinus issues at owner, John Hales' yard. They could be joined by Saphir Du Rheu, who has been given a wind- operation after two disappointing runs this season over both hurdles and fences. Queen Mother Champion Chase winner, Dodging Bullets, has returned to full training after a splint injury, and is being aimed at the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury next month. Flat jockey, Martin Dwyer, returned to competitive action at Wolverhampton recently after injuring his shoulder in a fall in Prague in September. Dwyer was advised by a shoulder expert that an operation was impractical, so he has spent nearly three months with his shoulder being kept still to allow the ligaments to heal naturally. Dwyer rode 36 winners last season and won the Derby on Sir Percy in 2006.
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 22, 2016 12:31:33 GMT
Race rating 3.00 Ascot.
Top rated.
512SIREDEGRUGY 27 10 11st7lb GaryMoore One of the most popular horses in training and handled superbly by Gary Moore. He looked to have the world at his feet a couple of seasons ago, when taking full advantage of Sprinter Sacre's sabbatical. Things fell apart last season though and after a few injury issues, he looked a shadow of his former self. He ran reasonably in the Haldon Gold Cup behind Vibrato Valtat on his seasonal debut, but looked back to his very best next time in the Tingle Creek. Went down fighting at Kempton over Christmas and has a great chance. RATING: 100
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 22, 2016 12:35:47 GMT
NOTEBOOK.
Gordon Elliott is known predominantly as a Jumps trainer for Gigginstown House Stud, but last week, it was his five-year-old gelding NATIONAL SERVICE who caught the eye. National Service is a Flat horse who, towards the end of last year, was running on the all-weather at Dundalk with no luck. He made his 2016 debut last week at Wolverhampton over seven furlongs on the all-weather and snatched the win with a relentless late charge. Elliott then ran him last Sunday, two days later, at Kempton, this time over six furlongs, and National Service produced another perfectly timed run to beat the 9/4 favourite. He's now on for a hat trick and should produce another bold bid next time out, whether it be over six or seven furlongs and with his running style, even a mile should suit. At Ludlow last week, DIAMOND ROCK made his racecourse debut for James Davies in a bumper and although he didn't win and was a long way behind the winner, he was well backed prior to the race, and this five-year-old son of Kayf Tara is certainly one to look out for. Another two who caught the eye last week were SHAAN and GOROKAI for their respective trainers Richard Hannon and David Simcock. Both landed their first win of their career on the all-weather in taking fashion. The former beat Australian Queen at Kempton, who is a half-sister to Arabian Queen, by a length and a half, whilst the latter kept on in a Lingfield maiden, comfortably beating the opposition. Both Shaan and Gorokai are very lightly raced and should have plenty more to come. It's also interesting to see that both have been given early entries in both the £100,000 Tattersalls Millions Sprint and £200,000 Trophy in April, which shows that connections must hold them in some regard.
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Post by Kimmy on Jan 22, 2016 12:39:13 GMT
STAT WATCH.
Most trainers are now looking ahead to the spring festivals, particularly Cheltenham, so these next few weeks are vital as stable stars have their last runs before their big day. Paul Nicholls's team seems to be coming back to some sort of form after a pretty depressing December and his statistics boast a near 34% strike-rate for the past seven days - much more in keeping with the Champion trainer's usual form at this time of year. Willie Mullins has already suggested that he would like to win a UK Trainers' Championship and it is not an impossible dream with his high quality team likely to be on fire at Cheltenham in March. Last week, Mullins enjoyed eight wins for a strike-rate of 30% and he has a few fancied horses making the trip over the Irish Sea this weekend. UN DE SCEAUX has an obvious chance in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot, but don't rule out his stable-mate, FELIX YONGER. Over at Haydock, ROYAL CAVIAR and BLEU ET ROUGE should also be feared in the Grade 2 Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trial. Both horses have a bit to find on form and Bleu Et Rouge had his limitations exposed in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown over Christmas, but this race will not be the strongest and they have definite chances. Kerry Lee is in terrific form and has won both the Welsh Grand National and the Warwick Classic Chase over the last two weeks and she has a healthy strike-rate of 42%. KYLEMORE LOUGH runs for her in the Grade 2 novice chase at Haydock and this horse goes there in great form, having won his last two starts at Uttoxeter and Exeter. Alan King's excellent season continues (20% strike-rate last week) and of his weekend runners, SIMPLY A LEGEND should run well in the Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Ascot as he is a model of consistency. In the juvenile contest, he runs the interesting GIBRALFARO. A useful horse on the Flat in France, Gibralfaro won well at Kempton in December on his seasonal debut and there could be much more to come. Alan King always has a strong team of juveniles and this horse could be anything. Wayne Hutchinson has enjoyed a very profitable week and his strike-rate is a very solid 33%. Look out for the horses he chooses to ride this weekend from the Alan King stable. Daryl Jacob is now over his injury woes and he had three winners from six rides last week (50%). He should be back to a full book of rides shortly and continues to be one to watch, particularly when sporting the green colours of Simon Munir and Isaac Souede.
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