Stat Watch. / Race Rating. / Notebook.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

Happy New Year to you all, and here's hoping the
stats can lead us to some nice-priced winners
in the year ahead.
In the hope of regaining the winning thread this
Saturday, let's take a look at the action, which
focuses on the Jumps. Channel 4 is televising
selected races from the meetings at Kempton
(2.10, 2.40 and 3.15) and Warwick (1.55, 2.25
and 3.35), and the jockeys to watch out for (based
on the 14 days to Monday, 5 January) are Tony
McCoy, Sean Bowen and Noel Fehily, by wins, with
7 victories each. Bowen's superior 33% strike rate
gives him bragging rights not only among that trio,
but also overall, ahead of Fehily's 29%. Of the
trainers, Paul Nicholls enjoyed a fine time of things
over the Christmas period, winning 11 races, 4
clear of his closest rivals Nicky Henderson and
Harry Fry, though the latter recorded an
astonishing 64% strike rate in the process,
approached only by Nicky Richards's 50%.
Even if Paul Nicholls has been enjoying the lion's
share of success in the past fortnight, perhaps
his main trainer's title rival Nicky Henderson can
take some crumbs of comfort in the knowledge
that he has a far superior long-term record at
Kempton, where he has saddled 55 winners to
Paul's 28, and also has a better strike rate: 30%
vs. 21%. In the Lanzarote Hurdle, a Listed 2m 5f
handicap (2.40), no horse has won this in the
past 10 years carrying more than 11st 7lb, and
any of Nicky Henderson's trio of entrants should
be respected; their trainer won this race the year
before last and Dawalan, who was a good
second in a similar race at this course two
months ago, is interesting, particularly with his
2 from 3 strike rate (67%) on the expected soft
ground. Trainer Nick Williams has twice won this
race in the past four runnings and his horses are
currently in red-hot form, with a 38% strike rate
in the past fortnight. Williams’s entrant, Tea For
Two, is a course-and-distance winner. Paul
Nicholls trained the winner of this race last year
and his entrant Lac Fontana, though high in the
weights, should go well as he is a former Grade
1 winner dropping into a handicap, if needing to
put a disappointing run last time behind him.
The 3.10 at Kempton is a 3m Class 2 handicap
chase, which could go the way of Nicky
Henderson's Open Hearted, who may have
needed the run a touch last time when a close
third to a well-regarded winner, has winning form
on the ground and should be suited by the step
up in trip. The Venetia Williams-trained Howard's
Legacy is another to consider, if maybe from
more of an each way angle. Although he
disappointed last time when pulled up at
Haydock, he was never in the race, but his
previous form, including wins on soft ground and
over distance, gives him a chance with the
possibility that the handicapper does not yet
have his measure.
At Warwick, the 1.55 is a 3m Listed novices'
chase, which looks a good opportunity for the in-
form Harry Fry to saddle another winner, in the
form of Highland Retreat, a three-time winner
over distance. He may just have an advantage
at the weights over the well-regarded Deputy
Dan. Alan King's unexposed Sego Success
improved last time when winning at Wetherby
and may have more to offer.
The 3.35 at Warwick is the meeting's feature
race, the Grade 3 Classic Chase over 3m 5f, won
last year by Shotgun Paddy, who could go well
again off an official rating just 4lb higher. Paul
Webber's Sixty Something is one of the less-
exposed improvers who should go well, with a
29% strike rate on the ground and is just 3lb
higher for his latest success, over 3m 2f at
Doncaster last time. Others who could go well
are Phillip Hobbs's Return Spring and Martin
Keighley's Benbane Head.


===========================================


Race Ratings
Saturday, 10 January 2015 - 2.10 Kempton
William Hill Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) 2m 4f 110y



34-415 Fox Appeal 49 8 11-6 Emma Lavelle
This Grade 2-winning chaser won a
graduation chase over course and distance
two starts ago, posting one of his best
efforts to date in the process. Was put in his
place last time, though, when a beaten
fourth behind Al Ferof in the Grade 2 Amlin
Chase at Ascot. Expected soft ground and
distance fine, and this race looks slightly
easier than his last, although a couple of
rivals arguably have stronger claims for
outright success. RATING 96
3-621U Carraig Mor 15 7 11-5 Alan King
Stable mate of Balder Succes who has yet to
match that horse's achievements, but has
run well in novices' chases this season. Won
a Grade 2 at Cheltenham two starts ago,
despite a slipping saddle, and beat the well-
regarded Southfield Theatre. Unseated at a
fairly early stage at this course last time,
when making a mistake at the eighth in the
race formerly known as the Feltham, but was
going well to that point. Drops in trip for this
race, which shouldn't be a massive
inconvenience, and could spring a surprise
as a potential improver. RATING 95
595-42 French Opera 14 12 11-0 Nicky Henderson
Grand servant to connections who has
regularly shown well in the smaller Graded
chases and larger handicap chases between
2m and 2m 4f over the last few seasons.
Hasn't won for nearly four years, but recent
placed form gives him a fair shout of running
into a place, with soft ground and distance
suitable. RATING 94
03-362 Hunt Ball 9 10 11-0 Nicky Henderson
Fascinating contender who first came to
prominence when trained by Kieron Burke a
few seasons ago, winning a 2m 4f novices'
handicap chase at the 2012 Cheltenham
Festival. Went to America thereafter, and
then returned to Britain, switching to his
current trainer, Nicky Henderson. Best form
since then includes his fourth in the Grade
1 Ryanair Chase at last season's
Cheltenham Festival and second-place last
time out, in the 2m 5f Grade 3 handicap
chase at Cheltenham's New Year's Day
meeting. Has a little to find with the best of
these, but is clearly in good heart and it
would be no surprise to see him go well
again for his in-form trainer. RATING 99
0-3222 Thomas Crapper 21 8 11-0 Robin Dickin
This useful hurdler has developed into a
better chaser according to his novice chase
form so far this season, and has been
unlucky to bump into a good one in each of
his four starts over fences. His one-length
second to Vibrato Valtat at Warwick reads
well given that the winner went on to land
the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase at
Sandown the following month. Thomas
Crapper was then beaten by Three
Kingdoms, who next time finished a half-
length second to Vibrato Valtat in the Grade
2 Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at this
course. Although some way behind the
probable market principles according to the
official ratings, he could sneak a place.
RATING 95
18-421 Highland Retreat 34 8 10-7 Harry Fry
This talented mare could prosper in this
race, thanks to her 7lb mare's allowance
against some of her higher-rated male rivals,
and nor does she have any penalties to bear,
unlike some others entered in this race. As
a Grade 2 winner over hurdles last season,
over 3m and on heavy ground, it was no
surprise to see her make all when recording
her first chase win last time, over distance,
when she comfortably beat the useful
yardstick Mickie in the process. This race is
a big step up in class, but she looks one on
the upgrade and represents a trainer whose
runners have won 64% of their races in the
past fortnight. RATING 98
1-3242 Balder Succes 14 7 11-5 Alan King
Likeable and very good chaser over 2m
and 2m 4f, who looked slightly outpaced
over 2m around this course last time,
when narrowly beaten in the Grade 2
Desert Orchid Novices' Chase last
month. Won over course and distance 11
months ago, in the Grade 2 Pendil
Novices' Chase, and given that his recent
runs over 2m, including in the Desert
Orchid last time, have seen him staying
on at the close of the races, the return to
this trip should suit. Has been running
consistently well this season, against
some very good horses, and deserves to
get his head in front. This race might
provide his easiest opportunity of the
season so far.
RATING 100
========================================
NOTEBOOK.

In the 2m novices' chase at Newcastle last
Saturday, the Brian Ellison-trained
YORKIST
probably ran a very good race to finish a close
second to Runswick Royal, who was Grade 1-
placed over hurdles and rated 145 at his peak
in that discipline, relative to Yorkist's 138. Both
horses are two-milers, or thereabouts, though
according to his form, Yorkist probably prefers
a stiff test over 2m, through either running at
or close to the pace on testing ground, or at a
course with a stiff finish, or a combination of
the two. He looked set to win until a slight
mistake at the last cost him some
momentum, and was then a little one-paced
relative to the winner on the run-in. It will be
interesting to see where connections go with
Yorkist from here, but they have already
mentioned the Grand Annual Chase, a 2m
handicap at the Cheltenham Festival, where
he should get a strong pace from the start to
finish, which should suit.
In the same race, though beaten 17 lengths
by the winner and runner-up, the third-
placed chasing debutant
CALCULATED RISK
ran a solid race over a distance that would
surely have been too short for him. In terms
of raw ability, he was of a similar level to that
of Runswick Boy and Yorkist, but was
campaigned over 2m 4f, so it was no
surprise to see him outpaced over 2m over
fences on this latest start. However, he
seemed to jump well enough and as he
handles soft and good ground, he could be
one to watch out for in novice and/or
handicap chases, particularly if stepped
back up in trip to 2m 4f, as winter turns to
spring this season.
=========================================

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

We were back to form last week, with our four
featured races producing two winners (5/1 and
9/2), plus two third places. This Saturday's
Channel 4-televised racing comes from Ascot
(1.50, 2.25, 3.00 and 3.35) and Haydock (2.05,
2.40 and 3.15).
The general Jumps form of the past week (to
Monday, 12 January) has seen Tony McCoy
extend his considerable lead over Richard
Johnston in the jockeys' championship, with 5
wins to Johnson's 4, who tied with Tom
Scudamore. Best jockey strike rate of the week
was 42%, chalked up by Charlie Poste. Top British
Jumps trainers of the period were Nicky
Henderson and Philip Hobbs, with 4 runners
each, Henderson just gaining the upper hand by
dint of a superior strike rate (28% to Hobbs's
23%), but best strike rate overall was the 42% of
Sue Smith.
At Ascot, the televised action kicks off at 1.50 with
the Grade 2 mares' hurdle, in which trainer Robert
Walford's Carole's Spirit should take the beating,
given her superior overall rating and 50% strike
rates on the expected soft ground and over
distance. Also, her trainer has saddled 1 winner
from 2 runners (50%) at Ascot in the past five
seasons. Oliver Sherwood has a good 19% strike
rate at this course and his entrant Mischievous
Milly handles testing ground and ran like a
potential improver on her seasonal debut last time,
with the step up in trip expected to help. In the
2.25, the Grade 2 handicap hurdle, David Pipe,
who has trained the winner of this race three times
in the past 10 years, could have the proverbial
dark horse in Willem, who won on testing ground
in France and has been given an opening rating of
130 for his British debut. Philip Hobbs’ Greatwood
Hurdle winner Garde La Victoire may head the
weights, but he may also still be improving, while
Nicky Henderson's Vasco Du Ronceray and
Dawalan should enjoy the conditions.
In the 3.00, the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase,
the recent form of Grade 1 winners Twinlight and
Dodging Bullets suggests both should have a
major chance, ahead of the consistent but ageing
Somersby, who won this race some years ago. If
Nicky Henderson's Sprinter Sacre lines up in his
old form, he should win; watch the market for
signs of confidence. The last of the televised
races from Ascot, at 3.35, is a 2m 5½f handicap
chase in which Emma Lavelle's Fox Appeal is
interesting, having been running against some
smart horses in Graded chases recently. The
return to handicap company might give him a
helping hand, particularly as he has winning form
on the ground, over distance and at the course.
Venetia Williams's Niceonefrankie was a ready
winner of the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham
last time and is unbeaten in two starts at Ascot,
with the possibility of further improvement.
At Haydock, the 2.40 is a 3m graduation chase
which could be a good opportunity for Colin
Tizzard's Third Intention to get his head back in
front, having run in Grade 1 and 2 chases on his
last two starts, coupled with the stable's excellent
29% strike rate at this course. Dr Richard
Newland's team are in great form, with a 40%
strike rate in the past fortnight. His charge,
Boondooma, was an easy winner when staying
over 2m at this course last time and has won 2
from 7 on heavy ground. The 3.15 at Haydock is
a Grade 2 handicap chase over 3m 1f. The
conditions should also suit Donald McCain's
Corrin Wood, who ran well when third in a Grade
3 chase at Wetherby last time, and the trainer
has the leading long-term record at the course by
wins among those with entrants in this race. Dan
Skelton's team have been in fair form recently
(16% last 14 days), suggesting Toby Lerone could
go well, who is better off at the weights with one
or two who have beaten him recently, including
when second to Broadway Buffalo at this course
and on this ground last time.

=========================================


Race Ratings
Saturday, 17 January - 2.05 Haydock
Stan James Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) (Class 1) 2m



31-111 The New One 7 11-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies
Has developed into one of the best hurdlers
over 2m to 2m 4f in the country, and is
unbeaten this season, though has probably
swerved some of the hotter 2m hurdle races
in favour of easier races en route to the
Champion Hurdle in March. One possible
negative is that he has only raced on the
expected heavy ground once so far, when a
quarter-length runner-up to At Fishers Cross in
a 2m 4f Grade 2 novices' hurdle two seasons
ago. Arguably beaten by a horse with more
stamina that day and has improved since then
anyway. Miles clear on official ratings and still
looks the one to beat.
RATING 100
69-126 Bertimont 35 5 11-4 Dan Skelton
Good 2m hurdler who landed a decent handicap
hurdle on his seasonal debut, beating the
potentially smart Dawalan by 16 lengths in the
process. Went up 10lb for that win, and was
then beaten four lengths by Purple Bay in the
Elite Hurdle at Wincanton, if helped by the
departure of the probable winner, Irving. Looked
outpaced when beaten 17 lengths by The New
One in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham
last time, but return to heavy ground (has
winning form on this surface when a juvenile
hurdler in France and on the Flat in Ireland last
year) may be a plus. RATING 95
1242-4 Desert Cry 14 9 11-4 Donald McCain
Fine servant for a yard that does well at
Haydock, one of their local courses. Desert Cry
has been running to a high level over fences
over the past two seasons, achieving a peak
official rating of 155, and returns to hurdles for
the first time since April 2012. Currently rated
150 over hurdles, so some way behind The New
One on official figures, but ran well enough
when maybe needing the run on seasonal debut
over fences, when fourth to the talented Mr
Mole at Sandown two weeks ago. Has place
claims on that basis and as a former runner-up
in this race, when behind the smart Celestial
Halo two years ago. May be vulnerable to a
young improver, but has plenty of winning and
good placed form on heavy ground. RATING 96
043-51 Got The Nac 27 6 11-4 Oliver Sherwood
Unexposed son of Beneficial whose dam is from the
family of the smart staying chaser The Last Fling.
The stable is having a fine season and Got The Nac
ran well when winning an ordinary Lingfield novices'
hurdle last time, over this distance and in heavy
ground, and was probably better than the five-length
winning margin suggested. Even allowing for that
and the probability of further improvement, he has
the proverbial mountain to climb to get on terms
with most of his rivals and is readily overlooked.
RATING 90
1-0842 Strongpoint 16 11 11-4 S R B Crawford
The elder statesman of the race, at 11 years of
age, but has been running well for trainer Stuart
Crawford in recent seasons, currently holding an
official hurdles rating of 140, just 2lb shy of his
peak last November. Handles soft ground and
ran well when second in a Class 2 handicap
hurdle at Musselburgh on New Year's Day, but is
likely to be competing for the minor honours in
this company. RATING 93
11425 Swaledale Lad 49 8 11-4 Richard Ford
Well beaten last time, when fifth behind Irving
in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at
Newcastle. That was his first run in four months,
so may have come on for the run, but looks an
also-ran, even on the pick of his best hurdling
form, which includes a couple of wins and
places in run-of-the-mill novices' and handicap
hurdle races two seasons ago. Does go on soft
ground, but still looks one who can be readily
crossed off the list. RATING 92
102-PP Trucking Along 15 9 11-4 S R B Crawford
Has won twice since joining Stuart Crawford two
seasons ago, over 2m 4f or thereabouts, and
when combined with heavy ground. On that basis,
one would assume that he will be positioned
handily in this race, even though his current
official hurdles mark of 133 would still leave him
with plenty to find in this company. However, his
two runs this season have both been well below-
par, so confidence is tempered. RATING 91.
======================================


NOTEBOOK.


In the 2m maiden hurdle at Fakenham, which
was a surprisingly well-contested race, with 11
runners, the James Fanshawe-trained
SHWAIMAN
caught the eye when a respectable
second behind the winning favourite, ridden by
Tony McCoy and trained by John Ferguson.
Shwaiman was a 2m winner on the Flat and was
accordingly ridden fairly handily around
Fakenham, on what was his second start over
hurdles. On his hurdling debut, last month, over
2m 110y at Doncaster, he didn't appear to relish
the soft ground, which wasn't altogether
surprising given his better form on the Flat had
been achieved on good or slightly quicker ground,
and he appeared to perform better on the good-
soft ground on this latest start, at Fakenham. As
one from a stable that does well with its few
hurdlers, he looks one who could pick up a
novices' or maiden hurdle at a similar level, or
maybe a handicap hurdle, at up to 2m 4f.
At Plumpton's Monday meeting, the opening race
was a 2m novices' hurdle in which the Chris
Gordon-trained favourite,
JEBRIL
, ran a solid race
back down in class (having finished midfield in the
Grade 3 Ladbroke hurdle at Ascot last month),
and finished fourth. Burdened with penalties, he
was giving weight away all round and just looked
as though he was pegged back by that and the
very testing ground. His course and distance win
earlier this season came on good ground and, as
a fairly consistent performer, he may be one to
watch out for at the smaller tracks come the
spring, when granted a decent surface.
On Sunday, the fourth-placed
CHAIN OF
BEACON
showed some promise on his hurdling
debut in the 2m NH novices' hurdle at Kelso.
The six-year-old Midnight Legend gelding had
improved in each of his three starts in bumpers
this season and last, finishing third of eight on
the last of three starts in a 2m bumper at
Musselburgh on good ground. The heavy ground
at Kelso was the first testing surface he has
been raced over since he was well-beaten on his
racing debut a year ago, in a Ludlow bumper.
That said, he was setting or near the pace up to
the point he weakened between the last two
hurdles, and wasn't disgraced in finishing a 12-
length fourth of 11 runners, finishing behind
three who all had more hurdling experience.
The only one of those first three finishers with less
race experience than Chain Of Beacon was the
third-placed
VINNIE RED
, of trainer Evan Williams,
who travelled a long way for this race and ran well.
He came to this race having only previously run on
good ground, when third in a bumper on his racing
debut and then winning at Stratford first time over
hurdles in October. There should be another win
over hurdles in Vinnie Red, and Chain Of Beacon
should get off the mark, too, if maybe in
handicaps rather than novices' hurdles.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
The highlight of last week's stats-influenced
selections was the 7/2 win of Dodging Bullets,
followed by the 7/1-second of Fox Appeal. In the
hope of finding further winners, we look towards
this Saturday's Channel 4-televised racing action
from Cheltenham and Doncaster.
The Jump jockeys to follow, by wins, in the week
ending Monday, 19 January, are Aidan Coleman,
Paul Moloney and Tom Scudamore, who each
chalked up four winners, though Moloney edges out
the other two, by virtue of his superior 36% strike
rate (Scudamore 33%, Coleman 25%). Looking at
the trainers in form, Colin Tizzard's team are firing
on all cylinders, and he saddled the most winners
(5) and also chalked up a very good 27% strike rate,
if just bettered by the 33% of Evan Williams and 28%
of Nicky Henderson.
At Cheltenham, the televised action commences at
1.50 with the Grade 2 Gold Cup trial, the Betbright
Chase Cup, over 3m 1f. David Pipe's Dynaste has the
highest official rating and, if he stays 3m in soft
ground, he should go close. Jonjo O'Neill's Holywell is
unbeaten in two starts at Cheltenham and, if putting
in a clear round, has claims, while Alan King's Smad
Place, who was second in the RSA Chase last March,
is one of the less-exposed horses in the race. The
2.25 at Cheltenham is the Grade 3 handicap chase
over 2m 5f. The in-form Paul Nicholls (33% last 14
days) could have a lively contender in Easter Day, who
is unbeaten in four starts on soft ground and is 2 from
3 over distance. Martin Keighley's Annacotty will find
this an easier task than the Hennessy last time and
could run off a lower mark than when second over
distance in the novices' handicap chase at this
meeting last year. At longer odds, Nigel Twiston-
Davies's Astracad is one to consider for small
each-way purposes; he has slipped to a mark 3lb
below his last winning rating, and is the only entrant
with winning form over distance, going and at this
course.
The 3.00 at Cheltenham is the Grade novices' hurdle
over 2m 4f 110y. Trainer Jamie Snowden's Present
View was beaten far when third in the Paddy Power
Gold Cup last time, and is one of only two entrants
with winning form over distance, at this course and
on this ground, the other being the Nigel Twiston-
Davies-trained Blaklion, who bears a penalty, but
has run to a high level already this season. Dan
Skelton's Value At Risk (2 from 3 on ground) was a
wide-margin winner on his stable debut at Newbury
last month, and could improve. The last of the
televised races at Cheltenham is the feature race,
the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle, a trial for the World
Hurdle. Former race winner Reve De Sivola should
go well, as should the Paul Nicholls-trained Saphir
Du Rheu; the stable has won 33% of its races in
the past 14 days.
At Doncaster, the 2.05 is the Grade 2 mares' hurdle
in which trainer Margaret Mullins's improving mare
Princess Leya has a chance, and is 3 from 8 over
distance. At the bottom of the weights, Karl Burke's
unexposed Intense Tango, who has been placed in
Listed company over hurdles this season, could
spring a surprise. The stable's only Jumps runner
of the past fortnight won their race. In the 2.40, the
Grade 2, 3m hurdle, Jamie Snowden's Present View
takes the eye as one with a high rating but not
burdened with win penalties, unlike some of his
rivals. Trainer Neil King's Zeroshadesofgrey is
unbeaten at this course and over this distance, so
is interesting returned to 3m for this race.
Though no horse has won the Great Yorkshire
Chase (3.15) off top weight in the past 10 years,
one winner carried 11st 11lb. Charlie Longsdon's
Grandads Horse has been in good form of late, and
this course and distance winner may be a little high
in the handicap, but should enjoy the conditions
(won only previous start at this course). The return
to better ground may help Venetia William's
Renard. The stable has been plundering these big
Saturday handicaps recently and Renard has gone
well this season over this trip and on this ground.
A less-exposed contender is Philip Hobbs's (20%
last 14 days) If In Doubt, who has decent-looking
form and should have conditions to suit.
==============================================


RACE RATINGS.

14
BIG
DIVI
SATURDAY 6 CLUB
32-334 At Fishers Cross 27 8 Rebecca Curtis
Talented son of Oscar who has gone close at
this level previously, including when a close
second in this race last year. He was then third
in the World Hurdle, second in the Aintree
Hurdle and third in the equivalent race at
Punchestown. This season's form has been a
little lacklustre by comparison, although he
hasn't been disgraced and doesn't carry any
penalties, unlike some rivals. RATING 98
121-16 Beat That 23 7 Nicky Henderson
Looked as though he needed the run when a
tired eighth in the Class 2 hurdle at this course,
over 2m 4f, on New Year's Day. Assuming he
comes on for the run, the return to 3m could
help him along and he is interesting according
to his top-class novice-hurdling form of last
season, winning two Grade 1 hurdles over 3m,
including at Aintree, where he beat the useful
benchmark Cole Harden by four lengths at
level-weights. Better ground would help, so
confidence is tempered in these conditions,
despite apparent class and ability. RATING 96
11213 Blaklion 26 6 Nigel Twiston-Davies
Progressive son of Kayf Tara who has gone
well in novice's hurdles this season, winning
over course and distance the time before last,
and on soft ground. Despite winning a Grade
2 already, in stepping outside novice's
hurdles, he has a lot more on his plate in this
company, but possibly has a chance of
sneaking a place. RATING 95
111F-8 Briar Hill 27 7 W P Mullins
Won first three starts over hurdles as a novice
last season, including a two-runner Grade 1
and a more competitive Grade 2, before falling
when going well (was 2/1 favourite) in the
Grade 1 Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham
Festival. Reappeared at Leopardstown last
month for the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and
was getting into contention before a late
mistake cost him any chance of success.
Respected contender from powerful stable,
but has something to prove here. RATING 97
72-123 Cole Harden 23 6 Warren Greatrex
Stable having a fine season and this son of
Westerner has stepped up this season, winning
the West Yorkshire Hurdle first time out. Wasn't
disgraced next time out, when second in the
Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, nor when a
staying-on third behind Rock On Ruby (and
ahead of Beat That) over an inadequate 2m 4f
at this course last time. Should go well, with
soft ground no problem. RATING 97
111-3U Holywell 49 8 Jonjo O ́Neill
Course and distance winner two years ago, in
the Pertemps Final at the 2013 Cheltenham
Festival. Has gone well over fences since then,
winning a Grade 3 handicap chase as a novice
at last year's Festival, but this season's form has
been below expectations and, after unseating
at Aintree last time, presumably connections
are consequently reverting to hurdles. Probably
a better horse on better ground, so a return to
hurdles on soft ground in what could be a fairly
open race isn't a huge positive, but respected
nonetheless. RATING 98
U-834 Olofi 23 9 Tom George
Has been outpaced over 2m and 2m 4f in
good company this season, so step up to 3m
is logical but, in this company at least, he has
a lot to prove over this trip and suspicion is
that he's probably not of the standard required
to win this race. RATING 93
8-7571 Reve De Sivola 35 10 Nick Williams
Won this race two years ago and both he
and his stable have been in good form of
late, with Reve De Sivola adding another
Grade 1 victory to his CV in the Long Walk
Hurdle at Ascot last month, ending a run
of below-par races. If on top form today,
should go close, with expected soft ground
no hindrance.
RATING 100
15
Sat 24 Jan - Fri 30 Jan 2015
SATURDAY 6 CLUB
14-U1F Saphir Du Rheu 29 6 Paul Nicholls
A progressive hurdler last season, whose
successes included the Lanzarote Hurdle.
Switched to fences this season, he left behind
the jumping errors of his debut when winning
second time out, but when upped in class for
the Feltham at Kempton, he simply didn't jump
well enough to cut it at that level. Holds an early
entry in the World Hurdle so presumably this
race is a fact-finding mission to see if he can
pick up over hurdles where he left off last
season. Good chance on best form, assuming
he will stay 3m at this level. RATING 99
2P-127 The Druids Nephew 56 8 Neil Mulholland
Could return to hurdles for the first time in
three seasons for this race, having run to a
good level over fences in the meantime, if not
quite progressing beyond handicap company.
That said, he ran a career-best when second
in the Grade 3 handicap chase over 3m 3f at
Cheltenham's November meeting, but hard to
see him finishing in the places back over
hurdles. RATING 94
1321-3 Un Temps Pour Tout 266 6 David Pipe
Unexposed son of Robin Des Champs who
joined the Pipe team last season and beat
Cole Harden by 16 lengths on heavy ground in
a 2m 4f novices' hurdle at Ascot's February
meeting. Even allowing for the fact that Cole
Harden probably doesn't want ground that
testing, it was a decent performance and one
that entitles him to respect within the context
of this race, albeit with a potential negative
that he comes here after an eight-month
break. RATING 97
561F7 Zaidpour 27 9 W P Mullins
Consistent son of Red Ransom who has won
at Grade 1 level several times over the years,
but is usually beaten, if not very far, in the
more competitive staying hurdles through the
seasons. Has to be respected given trainer
and general form to date, but probably not
quite good enough to win a full-blooded
renewal of this race. RATING 97
============================================


NOTEBOOK.


In the 2m 5½f maiden hurdle at Exeter, the
Nigel Hawke-trained
ROBBIE RABBIT
stepped
up on previous efforts when a staying-on
second of 14 runners. This was his fifth start
over hurdles, but he had appeared to have
turned a corner on his last run before Exeter,
when a close second in heavy ground at
Chepstow. He looks one who may appreciate
3m over hurdles, and shouldn't be long in
getting his head in front.
In the same race, the slightly less-experienced
LOCAL SHOW
was only just beaten on the nod by
Robbie Rabbit and is another who could make his
mark in a similar race, but with the likelihood of
more opportunities to come in handicap hurdles.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
14 of the horses analysed in last week's column
took to the track in their respective races, with four
winning, at prices ranging between 3/1 and 6/1,
and six others finishing second or third.
This Saturday's action focuses entirely on Jumps
racing, with Channel 4 covering races from the
meetings at Ffos Las (2.05 and 2.40),
Sandown (1.50, 2.25, 3.00 and 3.35) and Wetherby
(3.20).
In the past week (to Monday, 26 January), jockey
Tony McCoy rode more winners (7) than any of his
fellow riders and chalked up the best strike rate
(41.8%). Tom Scudamore and Keith Renwick
weren't far off, with 5 winners each, although
Scudamore's superior 35% strike rate gave him
bragging rights. Of the Jumps trainers, Donald
McCain had a fruitful week, with his stable's 5
winners putting him ahead of other trainers by wins,
though Philip Hobbs led the way by strike rate;
Hobbs's 57% was comfortably clear of the 44% of
Nicky Henderson and 29% of McCain.
The in-form Nicky Henderson has an excellent 40%
strike rate at Ffos Las in the past five seasons. In the
2.05, the Welsh Champion Hurdle, a limited
handicap over 2m 4f, Henderson could saddle his
recent Holloway Hurdle runner-up Lyvius, who is 6lb
higher in the handicap for his latest run, but is 2 from
6 on the expected soft going. Paul Nicholls's Silsol
may be set to head the weights, but he's unexposed
and interesting on this return to handicap company,
and is unbeaten on the ground. Another who hasn't
had much racing and should enjoy these conditions
is Nigel Twiston-Davies's A Doll In Milan. The 2.40 at
Ffos Las is the West Wales National, a handicap
chase over 3m 4f, in which Mick Channon's Loch Ba
(2 from 8 on the ground) could be handily weighted
according to his form in Grade 3 staying chases at
Warwick and Haydock this time last year, and is in
good form at the moment, having won at Wincanton
on Boxing Day. Another who may have slipped to a
helpful handicap mark is Summery Justice, trained
by Venetia Williams, who also saddled the winner of
this race last year. Summery Justice is 2 from 4 on
the ground.
At Sandown, the 1.50, a 2m handicap chase, could be
within the reach of another Venetia Williams-trained
runner, Brick Red, who has gone close in recent starts,
including over course and distance. Williams has won
this race in the last 10 years and Brick Red has won
five times over distance. Trainer Gary Moore has the
third-best record by wins at this course in the past five
seasons, of those trainers with entries in this race. His
charge Chris Pea Green is better off at the weights with
the talented Grumeti than when just beaten by the
latter horse last time, and Chris Pea Green has won
on this ground and over distance. The 2.25 race is the
Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase, over 2m 4f, in
which the Paul Nicholls-trained Irish Saint (2 from 3
on ground and 1 from 2 at the course) looks closely-
matched with Philip Hobbs's Champagne West (2 from
5 on the ground and 3 from 4 over distance), with the
latter just getting the edge by virtue of his proven,
winning stamina over this distance. The Grade 3
handicap hurdle over 2m 6f (3.00) has been won
three times in the past five seasons by a Paul Nicholls-
trained runner. The Champion trainer could saddle
Silsol to good effect in this race, while Emma Lavelle's
(22% strike rate last 14 days) Junction Fourteen
should appreciate the testing ground and is better off
at the weights with the progressive Batavir than when
beaten by that horse last time. The 3.35 is the Class
2 3m handicap chase and Paul Nicholls's Just A Par
is feasibly handicapped on the pick of his old form and
is a winner over distance. Lucy Wadham's course and
distance winner Le Reve ran well off his current
handicap mark when third in a Listed handicap chase
at Ascot last time, not beaten far by an unexposed
winner and is 3 from 5 on the ground.
The sole televised race from Wetherby, at 3.20, is the
Grade 2 Towton Novices' Chase in which David Pipe,
who trained the winner of this race two years ago,
should have a very good chance of saddling another
winner in the form of Kings Palace, who is unbeaten
in three starts over distance and is two from three on
the ground. Trainer Tom Symonds's Kaki De La Pree
has quite a bit to find with Kings Palace on official
ratings, but the yard is in great form (29% last 14
days) and their charge is 2 from 3 on the ground and
unbeaten in one start over distance.
While form can only tell you what's happened previously, having an idea of which trainers are currently
in form, or which jockeys have the best record at a certain racecourse, can help you to keep on the
winning track. With relevance to this Saturday's televised races, this column highlights the current trends.
Stat Watch
============================================




RACE RATINGS.

Saturday, 31 January - 3.20 Wetherby
Totepool Towton Novices ́ Chase (Grade 2) (Class1) 3m1f



The following horses were entered for this race but many may not run. The runner with the highest rating will be the selection
of our team.


11F-11 Kings Palace 50 7 David Pipe
Well-regarded by connections and many
others in the sport, on the back of winning first
three starts over hurdles last season,
including the Grade 2 novices' hurdle over 3m
at Cheltenham's December meeting, although
looked beaten when falling in the Grade 1
Albert Bartlett Hurdle at the Cheltenham
Festival. Has atoned for that disappointment
with two wins from two starts over fences,
easily beating a select field at Cheltenham
last time, including the third-placed Return
Spring, and now heavily backed (4/1) for the
RSA Chase at the Festival. Ground and
distance should be fine here, and probably
the one to beat.
RATING 100
6-211F Ballyben 63 7 Lucinda Russell
Showed glimmers of promise over fences last
season, but got the hang of things when
winning back-to-back handicaps at Wetherby
and Perth three months ago. This race looks a
lot tougher and, having fallen last time, his
confidence is taken on trust. Expected soft
ground is not likely to suit, according to best
form to date. RATING 91
215413 George Fernbeck 30 7 Brian Ellison
A 3m winner over hurdles in the summer for his
current trainer, who he had joined from Ireland in
the spring, George Fernbeck made a winning chase
debut at Southwell in September, at the expense
of an odds-on favourite of Nicky Henderson's. A
break then followed until New Year's Day, when he
looked held in a modest novices' chase at Catterick
and no obvious reason why he should suddenly find
the considerable improvement required to trouble
the likely contenders, according to the paper form.
RATING 92
031/52 Gonow 30 7 Micky Hammond
Rated 117 over hurdles and improved on chase
debut to run close to that mark over fences
next time, on his latest start, when second at
Catterick, behind Straidnahanna and a fair way
ahead of George Fernbeck. Could be more to
come, but he doesn't have the profile to land
this race. RATING 92
2-4222 Island Heights 10 6 Lucinda Russell
Wasn't highly-tried over hurdles, but won a
heavy ground 2m 4f handicap at Ayr in that
discipline, switching to fences this season and
has run well in defeat. Further to this, Island
Heights was only beaten two lengths over this
distance and on this ground last time by a
winner who enjoyed an 8lb advantage at the
weights. That form gives him modest place
claims in this race, and he is more open to
improvement than some. RATING 94
152-32 Kaki De La Pree 45 8 Tom Symonds
Held by Return Spring when third to that horse
on his seasonal debut in a heavy-ground 3m
novices' chase at Exeter earlier this season.
Improved on that run when second to a well-
regarded winner in a novices' handicap chase
at Newbury last month, and could be more to
come. Has interesting hurdling form from last
season, including a one-length second to Kings
Palace in a maiden hurdle at Fontwell and a
Grade 2-second at Haydock. Seems to be on
an upward curve and has conditions to suit, so
short-listed. RATING 96
21183U Man With Van 14 9 S R B Crawford
Handles testing ground but pair of chasing
successes to date have come in ordinary
company, at Hexham and Perth, in late
spring/early summer last year. Latest form has
been a little disappointing, although he was still
in contention at an admittedly early stage when
unseating in a Grade 2 at Haydock last time.
Others preferred. RATING 94
21-114 Ned Stark 30 7 Alan King
Lightly-raced individual whose unbeaten record
over fences came to an end last time, in the
Grade 2 novices' chase at Cheltenham's New
Year's Day meeting. Pace limitations were
arguably exposed in that company, so step up
to 3m for this race is logical and has solid place
claims, assuming Kings Palace runs his race
and takes top honours. RATING 99
1-4144 Rattlin 30 7 Sue Smith
Daughter of Bollin Eric who won her second
start over fences earlier this season, at
Uttoxeter over 3m, but then had a bad day over
course and distance the next time, beaten a
long way by Top Totti, and was soundly beaten
last time, when switched back to hurdles.
Looks up against it in this company. RATING 93
0313P Return Spring 21 8 Philip Hobbs
Potentially smart chaser who hasn't quite cut it in
conditions races over fences this season, and is
held by Kings Palace on their meeting at
Cheltenham last month. Has the look of a good
handicapper about him, but latest run, when
pulled up after never being in contention in the
Classic Chase at Warwick, doesn't inspire great
confidence. For all that, conditions should suit and
he probably has enough ability to out-class most
of his rivals here to finish in the places. RATING 98
7111F Royal Palladium 16 7 Venetia Williams
Though winless over hurdles, Royal Palladium
made hay in novices' handicap chases earlier
this season, recording a sequence of three
wins and still looked to be ahead of the
handicapper on his latest start, over 3m on soft
ground at Ludlow, but fell when in contention.
Connections know the time of day and have
been enjoying a good run in big Saturday races
lately, but Royal Palladium faces a different
class of rivals to that he has been beating so
far this season. RATING 95
23411 Straidnahanna 30 6 Sue Smith
Showed promise over fences from the outset
this season, and seemingly turned a corner in
November, going on to win last two starts. Latest
win gives him form ahead of a couple of rivals
here, but in the overall scheme of things, that
was probably a modest race and hard to see him
troubling the main protagonists. RATING 94
713-71Tonvadosa 20 7 Donald McCain
A useful mare over hurdles this season and last
for the team at McCain's Bankhouse Stables,
having been tried in Listed company and was a
respectable but held third behind the decent
benchmark Sausolito Sunrise at Perth last April.
That horse was comfortably beaten twice by
Kings Palace over fences before Christmas, so
Tonvadosa doesn't look an obvious winner in
this company, but could maybe sneak a place,
when taking into account her mares' allowance
and winning chase debut last time. RATING 96
60-213 Top Totti 30 7 Henry Daly
A decent mare who just missed out on black
type in her races to date, until finishing third in
the Grade 2 novices' chase at Cheltenham's
New Year's Day meeting last time. Prior to that
she had won a Uttoxeter novices' chase with
some ease and there could be more to come
here, but others have more convincing claims.
RATING 95
4263U Water Garden 36 9 Rebecca Menzies
A seasoned campaigner who was formerly with
Paul Nicholls and David Pipe. Has finished in the
first three twice in five starts for current trainer
since last April, but fair form still looks quite a
way short of what is required to be involved in
the shake-up in this race. RATING 91
================================================


RACING NEWS.

The Ed Dunlop-trained Red Cadeaux,
whose career earnings exceed £4.5m
could be set to return to Australia for a
crack at the Group 1 Australian Cup in
March. The race, worth AUS $1m, is held
at Flemington racecourse, where Red
Cadeaux finished runner-up in the
Melbourne Cup for the third time, two
months ago, before rounding off his 2014
campaign with a close sixth to Flintshire in
the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin in
December. It is expected that Red Cadeaux
will also have an entry at Dubai, possibly in
the World Cup or the Group 2 Gold Cup.
Following Un De Sceaux registering his first
Grade 1 victory in the Arkle at Leopardstown
last Sunday, the seven-year-old's trainer
Willie Mullins was quick to play down
speculation that his unbeaten charge
wouldn't handle the quicker ground expected
at the Festival. Mullins said Un De Sceaux
came through what was his biggest test to
date "with flying colours." Un De Sceaux is
currently priced at 4/5 for the Arkle on the
Tuesday of the Cheltenham Festival.
Following Dynaste's defeat in the 3m 1f
Betbright Cup at Cheltenham's Trials
meeting last Saturday, his trainer David
Pipe has confirmed that the 2m 5f Grade
1 Ryanair Chase will be the main target
for his stable star, although he didn't rule
out the possibility of running Dynaste in
the Gold Cup, for which he is available at
up to 33/1 with bookmakers. Dynaste is
currently 5/1 joint-favourite for the
Ryanair with the Gordon Elliott-trained
Don Cossack. The Betbright Cup was won
by Oliver Sherwood's Many Clouds, who
also won the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier
this season, and is now 10/1 third-
favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Winner of the Listed Silver Cup at Ascot last
month, The Young Master is likely to head
to the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, according
to his trainer, Neil Mulholland. The Young
Master is available 12/1 for the RSA and
10/1 for the 4m amateur riders' novices'
chase.
Second-season trainer Dan Skelton looks
to have a live Festival prospect on his
hands in Value At Risk, who stepped up
last Saturday when finishing a staying on
second in the 2m 5f Grade 2 novices'
hurdle. On the back of that run, Skelton
says that Value At Risk will be aimed at
the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices'
Hurdle, over 3m, but will also be entered
in the 2m 5f Neptune Hurdle, should the
ground be soft for the Festival.
The Alan King team enjoyed a fine second
with Smad Place in the Betbright Cup at
Cheltenham last Saturday, but their dual
Grade 1-winner Walkon was retired after
pulling up in the Grade 3 chase. Walkon,
10, won five of his 24 starts over hurdles
and fences, and his career prize money
totalled more than £220,000.
Dual Champion Hurdler Hurricane Fly
reminded his rivals of his seemingly
undimmed prowess when recording his
fifth win in the Irish Champion Hurdle at
Leopardstown last Sunday. The win was
the 22nd Grade 1 success of the 11-year-
old Montjeu gelding's career and he beat
last year's Champion hurdler Jezki and
well-regarded stable mate Arctic Fire.
Hurricane Fly's ante-post prices for the
Champion Hurdle shortened to a best
price of around 9/1, compared to the
general evens favouritism for his
stablemate, Faugheen.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

While form can only tell you what's happened previously, having an idea of which trainers are currently
in form, or which jockeys have the best record at a certain racecourse, can help you to keep on the
winning track. With relevance to this Saturday's televised races, this column highlights the current trends.



Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
It should be a busy day's racing on
Saturday with very good cards at both
Warwick and Newbury. The highlight of
Newbury's meeting is the Betfair
Hurdle, one of the most competitive
and valuable handicap hurdles of the
season. Won last year by Nigel Twiston-
Davies's Splash Of Ginge at odds of
33/1, it could prove just as tricky to find
this year's winner.
No one trainer has a monopoly on this
race, although Nicky Henderson (My
Tent Or Yours) and Paul Nicholls
(Zarkandar) have been successful in
recent years. Henderson has some
attractive possible runners with the J P
McManus-owned Snake Eyes of serious
interest if getting a run. He also has
Vasco Du Ronceray, Sign Of A Victory
and Dawalan currently engaged.
Nicholls will be relying on the ante-post
favourite Calipto to bring home the
spoils to Ditcheat. Both Henderson's
and Nicholls's winners were serious
Champion Hurdle contenders and
carried over 11st to victory at Newbury,
although the stats show that it may be
prudent to look for a horse who is
weighted below 11st.
Although Henderson and Nicholls are
the trainers to watch at Newbury, biting
on their heels are Alan King, Philip
Hobbs and David Pipe. After Barry
Geraghty, it is AP McCoy who is the
jockey to watch out for at the Berkshire
track and he is sure to have a strong
book of rides on Saturday.
Warwick hosts the Grade 2 Kingmaker
Novices' Chase on Saturday and this
race can often give a few clues ahead
of the Cheltenham Festival, particularly
with the Arkle in mind. Paul Nicholls has
won the race four times, but the last
time was back in 2002 with Armaturk.
He has Vibrato Valtat engaged this
time. The roll of honour reads as a
who's who of the two mile division, with
past winners including Flagship
Uberalles, Voy Por Ustedes and Balder
Succes. Long Run even won this race
back in 2010. Look for the class horse
in the race and as a Grade 1 winner
already, Vibrato Valtat could be the one.
Alan King is the trainer to follow at
Warwick and he has an incredible 24%
strike rate. He saddles Avispa in the
Listed Mares' Hurdle. Smart Motive
should also be of interest in the last
race on the card - a handicap hurdle
over two miles.
==========================================


RACE RATING.

Uxizandre 7 11st 10lb Alan King
A little disappointing on his seasonal
return in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase
at Aintree, in which he started
favourite. However, he was extremely
impressive at Cheltenham next time.
He disappointed at Leopardstown over
Christmas, but the ground was testing
and he's definitely worth considering
here. Should go well.
RATING: 100

Sire du Grugy 9 11st 10lb Gary Moore
Top class last year and took full advantage
of Sprinter Sacre's absence. Has been
plagued with injury problems since and
Gary Moore has himself admitted that he
is not 100% fit. Worth taking on here.
RATING: 98
Mr Mole 7 11st 6lb Paul Nicholls
A seemingly reformed character who was
previously known for his lack of effort in the
closing stages of his races. He has won twice
already this season, beating subsequent
Sandown winner Brick Red on both
occasions. Steadily rising up the handicap,
but this looks like a big ask. RATING: 96
Vibrato Valtat 6 11st 5lb Paul Nicholls
A top-class chaser but still a novice.
He is much more likely to head to Warwick
for the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novice Chase
on the same day and was possibly only
entered in this contest in case something
went wrong with his stable-mate, Mr Mole.
RATING: 94
Upsilon Bleu 7 11st 4lb Pauline Robson
A highly consistent son of Panoramic who
won last time at Wetherby. He deserves to
take his chance here, although he will
need to post a career best to get involved.
RATING: 93
Karinga Dancer 9 11st 0lb Harry Fry
In and out this season, but usually runs his
race. This looks tough, but it would be no
surprise to see him run into a place.
Trainer Harry Fry is flying at the moment.
RATING: 95
=========================================


NOTEBOOK.


Sat 7 Feb - Fri 13 Feb 2015

With Spring hopefully just around the
corner, it won't be long before the Flat
racing starts to hit top gear. There was an
interesting card at Lingfield on Saturday
and both the winner and second horse in
the seven furlong maiden are ones to
follow.
MIDDLE ENGLAND
won well and
had the edge of experience over second-
placed
SINGLE LENSE
, who was having
his first run. Although not the strongest
maiden in the world, the first two past the
post may be above average and should
progress when they encounter the turf.
Middle England is a beautifully-bred colt
by Dubawi and connections will be hoping
that he can build on this success.
Sandown produced a testing but fair
racing surface last weekend and the
opening juvenile hurdle looked of decent
quality, if not top-notch. The winner,
PAIN
AU CHOCOLAT
, is clearly talented and he
could be a live outsider in the Triumph
Hurdle in March. The runner-up,
OLD
GUARD
, would not have been suited by
the ground and he could spring a surprise
in a decent race when the ground
improves.
The Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Sandown
provided a shock win, in the shape of
Invicta Lake. He was carrying a feather
weight and his stamina came into play in
the testing ground. However, fifth-placed
JUNCTION FOURTEEN
took the eye with
his slick jumping and the way he travelled
through the race. Emma Lavelle's charge
will be of interest on better ground and
may head to Cheltenham for one of the
handicap hurdles.
AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA
ran a very good race
in a competitive novices' handicap hurdle
at Sandown and he can continue to
reward his connections. Two and half
miles on soft ground is probably far
enough for him at this stage of his career
and he should be capable of landing
another race on better ground before the
end of the season.
Tom George's
SOME PLAN
was the
runaway winner of the Supreme Novices'
Hurdle Trial at Musselburgh on Sunday
and he could run well in the big race in
March. Connections feel that he will be
suited to a strong end-to-end gallop and he
is a best-priced 33/1 for the opening race
of the Festival.
DIESCENTRIC
is a classy horse but had
been off the track for a long time before
finishing second in a competitive
conditions race at Wolverhampton
recently. Ignored in the betting at 33/1,
Diescentric gave Group 3 winner Graphic
a scare and he can go on to better things
now.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
The form of Tony McCoy noted in last week's column
yielded a couple of winners at the featured meeting
from Newbury, plus a 6/5 success with Vibrato Valtat
winning the Kingmaker Novices' Chase at Warwick.
The Channel 4-televised action this Saturday comes
from Ascot (2.05, 2.40, 3.15 and 3.50), Haydock
(2.20 and 2.55) and Wincanton (3.35).
Appropriately enough, in the week (ending Monday,
9 February) that Tony McCoy announced his
retirement from race riding at the end of this season,
and stating his wish to do so while he was still
enjoying the sport, he rode more winners (6) than
any other UK jockey and also recorded the best
strike rate (37.5%). Next-best by wins and strike rate
was Noel Fehily, ahead of Sam Twiston-Davies.
The form Jumps trainer of the week was Jonjo
O'Neill, whose tally of 5 wins was matched by Paul
Nicholls and David Pipe, but neither bettered
O'Neill's 27.7% strike rate. Colin Tizzard chalked up
the best strike rate of all, saddling 4 winners from
13 runners to provide a 30.7% strike rate.
The feature race at Ascot is the Grade 1 Ascot Chase
(3.50) in which former race-winning trainer Nicky
Henderson could saddle his talented mare Ma Filleule,
who won the Grade 3 Topham Chase last season and
returns to this distance for the first time since that win.
She could be well in at the weights, given her mares'
allowance, and Henderson has the best winning record
at this course in the last five seasons. Paul Nicholls's
novice-chaser Ptit Zig looks another strong contender.
Unbeaten over fences this season, including at the 2m
4f race distance, he should go well.
The first of the televised races from Ascot is the
Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase over 3m (2.05).
Among the likelier protagonists is the Oliver
Sherwood-trained Deputy Dan, whose trainer has a
fine 18% strike rate at the course. An alternative
could be David Pipe's Ainsi Fideles, who won five of
his first six starts over fences last season, until
bumping into the decent yardstick, Splash Of Ginge.
He comes here fresh from a break and has winning
form on soft ground from his French racing days. The
3m Listed handicap chase at 2.40 has a number of
interesting entrants, including the afore-mentioned
Ma Filleule, and trainer Evan Williams's Cappa Bleu,
who has fallen to a potentially lenient handicap mark
on the pick of his old form, and should be sharper
for his comeback run last month. The stable has a
great 25% strike rate at the moment. Scottish
trainer Lucinda Russell rarely makes the journey
south to Ascot, but two of her three runners since
2010 have won their races at the Berkshire course.
The young and improving Clondaw Knight has
winning form on the ground and over distance. The
3.15 at Ascot is a 2m 3½f handicap hurdle, in which
Paul Nicholls's Lac Fontana, a Grade 1 winner last
season, catches the eye on his return to handicap
company. Donald McCain's Diamond King is 2 from
3 on the ground and looked in need of the run when
not beaten far on his seasonal debut last month.
At Haydock, the Rendlesham Hurdle at 2.20 looks
within the grasp of the Rebecca Curtis-trained At
Fishers Cross, who is 3 from 9 over distance and 4
from 8 on the expected soft ground. As the youngest
horse in the race, Dawalan, trained by Nicky
Henderson, looks one who could improve on his form
to date, especially as he has won his only start over 3m
to date. Emma Lavelle's 29% strike rate at the course
(since 2010) catches the eye, and her entrant Closing
Ceremony could be another improver. The Grand
National Trial at 2.55 looks a fair opportunity for the
Richard Lee-trained Mountainous to get his season
back on track after having problems in running in the
Welsh National seven weeks ago. He won that race the
season before, so the 3m 5f distance for this race will
be fine, and he has dropped to a handicap rating of
137, which was his last winning mark.
The 3.35 at Wincanton is the Grade 2 Kingwell
Hurdle, a race which local trainer Paul Nicholls has
won in recent years and also enjoys the best course
strike rate (27%, since 2010) of any of the trainers
with entrants in the race. Nicholls's Irving has the
form to win this race, is 3 from 3 on the ground and
4 from 7 over distance. Nicky Henderson's Sign Of A
Victory is probably Irving's likeliest rival, particularly
if the ground dries out, and is 5 from 8 over distance.
========================================


RACE RATINGS.

Saturday, 14 February - 2.20 Haydock
(Registered As The Rendlesham Hurdle) Grade 2 (Class 1) (4yo+) 3m



1U0-80 Across The Bay 70 11 Donald McCain
Has mixed hurdles and fences in recent
seasons and won this race two years ago
under an enterprising ride. Stable in good
form at the moment and have a great record
at this course, but Across The Bay hasn't
been in the same form this season and
returns to hurdles for the first time in 18
months. Not an obvious choice. RATING 94
0/0-21 Barafundle 28 11 Jennie Candlish
Fairly consistent handicap hurdler who has
finished in the first three in 10 of his 15
career starts over hurdles. Has been in good
form lately, winning a Class 3 handicap
hurdle in heavy ground at this course last
month, but more needed on this step up in
grade and probably has a small chance of
sneaking a place at best. RATING 94
4-0112 Closing Ceremony 35 6 Emma Lavelle
Was declared to run at Warwick last week but
withdrawn on raceday and, as a potential
young improver, is of interest, especially as
one from a stable that has won this race and
also had placed runners in the last 10 years.
Soft ground expected for this race should suit
and as one still on an upward curve, may
have each-way possibilities. RATING 98
22411 Dawalan 13 5 Nicky Henderson
Son of Azamour who ran a cracker when
second behind Sign Of A Victory in a Listed
handicap hurdle over 2m at Ascot in early
November, but has since stepped up to 3m
with aplomb, winning a 3m Pertemps Hurdle
qualifier at Musselburgh at the start of the
month. Handles soft ground and represents
a top stable in great form at the moment.
RATING 99
0-2F43 Fairytale Theatre 7 8 Dan Skelton
Has been running consistently well in mares'
hurdles this season and last, looking best-
suited by running over 3m+, most notably
when a close fourth in a Grade 2 race at
Ascot over 3m last month. Outpaced on
return to 2m 5f last weekend at Warwick, so
return to 3m should suit and interesting with
mares' allowance, if finding the necessary
improvement. RATING 96
1-9513 Land Of Vic 28 7 Peter Bowen
Finished third in the same Grade 2 mares'
hurdle at Ascot in which Fairytale Theatre
finished fourth. The race didn't quite go to plan
for Land Of Vic, so she probably ran better
than her eventual third suggested. Stable won
this race in 2010 and this mare has place
claims on her best form. RATING 97
81/112 Milansbar 28 8 Neil King
A chaser-in-the-making who has already
shown a useful level of form over hurdles to
date, including when a one-length runner-up
to Barafundle at this course last time, in a
3m handicap hurdle. Was giving Barafundle
7lb that day and would be expected to turn
tables given the revised weights for this race.
Has a bit to find with the best, but previous
form suggests he's heading the right way and
could go well at a price. RATING 96
11113- Seeyouatmidnight 316 7 Sandy Thomson
Unexposed son of Midnight Legend who won
this race last year and was then a held but
respectable third behind the well-regarded
Beat That in the Grade 1 3m novices' hurdle
at Aintree's Grand National meeting. Hasn't
raced since then, but has an entry in the
World Hurdle and could make his presence
felt in this race if pin-sharp for his first run of
the season. RATING 98
2P-P62 Speed Master 43 9 Nigel Twiston-Davies
A formerly useful novice-hurdler who perhaps
hasn't achieved all that might have been
expected of him at one stage, having finished
fourth in the Grade 3 novices' handicap
hurdle at Sandown in March 2012. Was off
the track for a long time and arguably didn't
take to fences, but reverted to hurdles this
season and has shown a fair level of form
subsequently. Work to do in this company,
though. RATING 93
2-334 At Fishers Cross 48 8 Rebecca Curtis
Talented and able staying-hurdler who
has yet to achieve the heights he once
suggested he might. Enjoys testing and
decent ground alike, and has been
placed in better races than this, with his
fourth in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last
time suggesting he has the class to hold
his own in this lesser company. Should go
close on pick of form.
RATING 100
======================================


NOTEBOOK.


In the first division of the mares' hurdle at
Plumpton on Monday, the David Pipe-
trained odds-on favourite
TWENTYTWO'S
TAKEN
ran better than her eventual
second place suggested. An early mistake
lit her up and by the time she settled into
the rhythm of the race, she didn't have
enough energy to get her home at the
finish. For all that she was carrying 17lb
more than the winner, was beaten 15
lengths and deserves another chance at
this level, in the hope that she will learn to
settle better.
Some way behind Twentytwo's Taken was
the third-placed
DOLLY DIAMOND
who
has shown much in bumpers or over
hurdles to date, but probably ran her best
race so far, on this latest start, and will
now qualify for a handicap mark. She
doesn't look star material but probably has
claims in a modest handicap hurdle
assuming she continues to improve,
possibly if run over longer distances.
Also at Plumpton, in the 2m 1f novices'
limited handicap chase, the Gary Moore-
trained winner,
TRAFFIC FLUIDE
, looks
one open to further improvement and may
be one step ahead of the handicapper.
Although he was receiving a lot of weight
from the runner-up, Traffic Fluide won in
the style of a horse on the upgrade and
this win was only his seventh race to date,
including his four starts in France for his
previous connections last year. He may
head to Cheltenham next month, but as
connections have reported in the press
following the win, he looks a nice one for
the longer term as well.
Sat 14 Feb - Fri 20 Feb 2015
SATURDAY 6 CLUB
In the first division of the mares' hurdle at
Plumpton on Monday, the David Pipe-
trained odds-on favourite
TWENTYTWO'S
TAKEN
ran better than her eventual
second place suggested. An early mistake
lit her up and by the time she settled into
the rhythm of the race, she didn't have
enough energy to get her home at the
finish. For all that she was carrying 17lb
more than the winner, was beaten 15
lengths and deserves another chance at
this level, in the hope that she will learn to
settle better.
Some way behind Twentytwo's Taken was
the third-placed
DOLLY DIAMOND
who
has shown much in bumpers or over
hurdles to date, but probably ran her best
race so far, on this latest start, and will
now qualify for a handicap mark. She
doesn't look star material but probably has
claims in a modest handicap hurdle
assuming she continues to improve,
possibly if run over longer distances.
Also at Plumpton, in the 2m 1f novices'
limited handicap chase, the Gary Moore-
trained winner,
TRAFFIC FLUIDE
, looks
one open to further improvement and may
be one step ahead of the handicapper.
Although he was receiving a lot of weight
from the runner-up, Traffic Fluide won in
the style of a horse on the upgrade and
this win was only his seventh race to date,
including his four starts in France for his
previous connections last year. He may
head to Cheltenham next month, but as
connections have reported in the press
following the win, he looks a nice one for
the longer term as well.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
Though we could only find the two winners among
the highlighted horses in the televised races last
week, those two winners came home at 6/1 and
12/1, putting us well in profit for the day, at level
stakes. Hopefully, the stats ahead of this Saturday's
Channel 4-televised race action will prove equally
helpful. Channel 4 is covering Flat and Jumps
meetings this Saturday, from Lingfield's all-weather
meeting (1.45 and 3.25), Kempton (2.00, 2.35, 3.10
and 3.45) and Newcastle (2.20 and 2.55).
In the week ending Monday, 16 February, AP McCoy
is to retire at the end of this season but continues to
ride plenty of winners; his tally of six betters that of
next-best Tom Scudamore (5) and Jason Maguire (4).
Scudamore does have a superb 55% strike rate,
though. Top Jumps trainer of the same period was
Nicky Henderson, whose eight wins pip the seven of
Jonjo O'Neill and four of David Pipe. Pipe led the way
by strike rate, with his 44% edging the 41% of O'Neill
and 38% of Henderson.
The first of the televised races from Lingfield is the 6f
Listed sprint at 1.45. In this race, James Fanshawe's
filly Hallelujah has previous winning form in Listed
races, including on the all-weather (3 from 5, 60%).
Andrew Balding's Intransigent is another former all-
weather winner, including over course and distance,
and won twice at this level last season. Of the trainers
with entrants in this race, Balding leads the way by wins
and strike rate at this course since 2010. The 3.25 race
is the Winter Derby Trial, over 1m 2f. Marco Botti has
trained the winner of this race three times in the past
five renewals and his entrant Grendisar has multiple
winning form on the going, at this course and over
distance. John Gosden's pair of entrants, Cloudscape
and Maverick Wave, both have solid claims, with the
latter unbeaten in three starts at this course.
At Kempton, the 2.00 is the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle, a
trial race for the Cheltenham Festival's Triumph Hurdle.
The Robert Stephens-trained Beltor is interesting,
having won his only hurdles start to date last month,
finishing clear of two subsequent winners. Also, Nicky
Henderson, who has a fine record in this race in recent
years (three winners) has a lively candidate in Top
Notch, who is unbeaten in five starts over hurdles. The
2.35 is the Pendil Novices' Chase, over 2m 4f. Paul
Nicholls's Irish Saint has won both his starts to date at
Kempton, and is two from three on the expected good-
soft ground. A viable alternative may be Kim Bailey's
unexposed Un Ace, who has won on the ground, over
distance and the stable has a fine 22% strike rate in
the past 14 days. The Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' Hurdle
at 3.10 looks a fair opportunity for Nicky Henderson's
Days Of Heaven (2 from 2 on ground), who looks to be
on an upward curve, as does his stablemate, One For
The Guv'nor (2 from 3 over distance). The feature race
of the day is the Grade 3 3m handicap chase at 3.45.
On the back of a fine effort when a staying-on second
at Ascot last time, Emma Lavelle's Fox Appeal looks
attractive, with winning form on the ground, over
distance and at this course, and the trainer has a fine
21% record at this course in the past five seasons.
Trainer Harry Fry saddled the winner of this race two
years ago and has a fine 46% strike rate at the course.
His course and distance winner Triangular just gets into
the handicap proper, with Lucinda Russell's Tap Night
another possibility, having come into some form lately
and has winning form on the ground.
The first televised race at Newcastle is the 2.20, a
2m handicap hurdle in which Donald McCain's Doyly
Carte could be interesting if the ground improves.
Returning to hurdles, she could also make her
handicap debut in this race and has twice won over
distance. Also, her trainer has a 25% winning strike
rate at this course since 2010. The testing ground
should suit David Pipe's (29% last 14 days) Heath
Hunter, who returned to winning ways as soon as he
was dropped back to this trip (3 from 4) last time;
there could be more to come. The 2.55 at Newcastle
is the Eider Chase, a handicap chase trial for the
Grand National. This race is generally run in testing
ground, but there have been two top-weight winners
in recent years, enhancing the prospects of last
year's winner, Wyck Hill, and Shotgun Paddy. The
latter is just 2lb higher than his last winning mark
and ran well when third at Warwick last time. Venetia
Williams's Gorgeous Lliege remains on the same
mark as when second of the only two finishers in the
West Wales National last time. No real form can be
discerned from that race, but he has winning form on
this ground and may have each-way claims.


=================================================


RACE RATING.


2.35 Kempton - Saturday, 21 February


0-2212 Far West 38 6 Paul Nicholls
Runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle two seasons
ago, Far West didn't have the smoothest of
campaigns as a second-season hurdler, but
has run well over fences this term. Has been
unlucky to bump into a couple of decent
winners, and would arguably have beaten the
talented Top Gamble last time, over 2m 4f at
Newbury, if the ground had been better.
Stable has won this race seven times in the
last 10 years, and Far West is not out of it on
the pick of his form, but could find one or two
just a shade too good, including his
stablemate, Irish Saint. RATING 96
2-1173 God ́s Own 56 7 Tom George
Looked to have the world at his feet when
winning the Grade 1 novices' chase at
Punchestown and the Haldon Gold Cup at
Exeter either side of his summer break last
year. Although a second-season novice-
chaser, his rating entitled him to a crack at
stiffer opposition this term, but he looked
outclassed in the Tingle Creek and also
when dropping in grade for the Wayward Lad
last time. Step back up in trip could help as
could return to better ground. RATING 99
712-5P Gun Shy 97 7 Gary Moore
Given his peak official rating of 125 over
hurdles, Gun Shy would surely be dropped
in at the deep end for his chasing debut if
lining up in this race. That said, his shrewd
trainer knows the time of day, but even
allowing for the fact that he may be a better
chaser than a hurdler, in facing proven
Graded race-winners in this race, he has the
proverbial mountain to climb. RATING 91
511U12 Hollow Penny 105 7 Alan King
Stable won this race last year with Balder
Succes, though Hollow Penny, who has
presumably been absent over the winter to
avoid the soft ground, given his best form
has been on good-soft or quicker going,
has a different profile. Won three times last
summer and into the autumn, including
over distance, but was a beaten-second
behind Southfield Theatre, and that form
leaves him with nine lengths or so to find
with Melodic Rendezvous, who finished
within three lengths of Southfield Theatre
at Exeter earlier this month. Comes here
fresh, but needs to step up. RATING 94
77-312 Melodic Rendezvous 13 9 Jeremy Scott
Something of a mudlark who was a Grade
1 winner over hurdles as a novice, and not
far off the top-flight of hurdlers last season,
winning the Elite and Kingwell Hurdles at
Wincanton, and Haydock's Champion
Hurdle Trial. If the ground became more
testing, his chance should be increased,
but he handles the expected good-soft and
was not disgraced when second to the
odds-on favourite Southfield Theatre at
Exeter last time, and on this ground.
RATING 97
6-1312 Irish Saint 21 6 Paul Nicholls
Improving chaser who has blossomed
this season, including when stepped up
to this distance in each of his last two
starts. Was beaten but not disgraced
when second to a smart Willie Mullins
mare in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase
at Sandown last month, with the winner
clearly relishing the soft ground. Irish
Saint gave 11lb to the winner and given
that he's dropping in class for this race
and may enjoy the better ground, he
should be the one to beat.
RATING 100
7-P46F Onwiththeparty 7 6 Chris Gordon
Fell last week in a 2m 6f handicap hurdle
at Wincanton and hard to see this maiden
hurdler, rated 102, improving 50lb and
challenging top-class novice-chasers on
what would be his first run over fences.
RATING 80
5-31FP Puffin Billy 21 7 Oliver Sherwood
Given his smart form as a novice-hurdler the
season-before-last, when winning a Grade 2
and finishing fifth in the Supreme, Puffin
Billy's third on his chasing debut at Exeter
(behind the subsequent Grade 2 winner
Dunraven Storm and consistent runner-up
Far West) looked a little ordinary. Stepped
up next time when impressively winning a
2m 3f novices' chase at Ascot, though the
form of that race has been mixed and he
was held when a tired faller in a race won by
Irish Saint. Last seen over hurdles when
pulled up in the very testing ground at Ffos
Las a few weeks ago. Has claims on pick of
form, but others perhaps make more
convincing arguments. RATING 96
2-5437 Sea Current 28 7 Dan Skelton
Posted best effort when a three and a half-
length second to Arkle fancy Vibrato Valtat
at Warwick in November, but performances
either side of that run have been fairly
ordinary, including on his handicap debut
at Doncaster last time. Looked outpaced
on that occasion, so step up in trip is
logical, and may unlock further
improvement, but he only has claims for
the smaller prizes according to his form to
date. RATING 93
3/122U Tango De Juilley 31 7 Venetia Williams
Looked set to go close when unseating in
a race won by the useful Yorkist last time.
Prior to that, he had run well at Wincanton,
finishing ahead of the solid handicapper
Rebel Rebellion, who landed a big
handicap at Ascot next time. Probably has
decent enough place claims in this
company, given apparent liking for distance
and is arguably less exposed than some
more likely candidates, but suspicion is
that he's not quite good enough for win
purposes. RATING 95
P-F112 Un Ace 70 7 Kim Bailey
Lightly-raced but talented sort who hasn't
quite had the rub of the green so far. Beat
a fair sort by eight lengths when winning on
his hurdling debut last season, and was a
staying-on eighth in the Supreme next time.
This season has picked up, with two wins
in last three starts and was possibly at the
outer edges of his stamina reserves on
latest start, when second to Champagne
West (good second in a Grade 2 next time)
in tacky ground over 2m 5f at Cheltenham.
Comes here fresh as a potential improver
on a track and distance combination
that may suit him better. Interesting.
RATING 98
=========================================


RACING NEWS.


The late Dessie Hughes, who passed
away last year, will be remembered at
next month's Cheltenham Festival when
the Irish Independent's award for leading
trainer will be named in Hughes's
honour. As a jockey, Dessie Hughes won
the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1977,
aboard Davy Lad, and won the Champion
Hurdle twice as a trainer, with Hardy
Eustace's back-to-back victories in 2004
and 2005.
The Paul Nicholls-trained Ptit Zig remains
on course for the Cheltenham Festival,
despite falling in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase
last Saturday. The Grade 1-winning novice
chaser is currently 4/1 second-favourite
for the JLT (Golden Miller) Novices' Chase
at next month's Festival, behind the Willie
Mullins-trained Vautour. Nicholls reported
that Ptit Zig's stablemate Irving may not go
for the Champion Hurdle after finishing
second to Blue Heron in the Grade 2
Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. Blue Heron
is now expected to swerve Cheltenham
and head to Aintree for the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle over 2m 4f, according to
his trainer, Dan Skelton.
The Grade 1 Ascot Chase was won by
Alan King's Balder Succes, with the
victory shortening his odds for the
Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham
Festival. The Gordon Elliott-trained Don
Cossack is the current favourite at a best
price of 4/1, ahead of the former
Ryanair winner, Cue Card. Champagne
Fever, who was battling with Don
Cossack when falling in a Grade 2 race
at Thurles earlier this season, got his
preparations for next month's Champion
Chase back on track with a ready win in
the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran
Park.
Ace Irish mare Annie Power could head for
the Grade 1 mares' hurdle at next month's
Cheltenham Festival, according to stable
jockey Ruby Walsh. Injured in December,
Annie Power is reported to be in great nick
ahead of the Festival. Although she is
fairly well supported in the ante post
markets for the World Hurdle, having
finished second in that race last year, she
is currently evens in the betting for the
mares' race, as she is expected to fill the
gap left by the now-retired stable star,
Quevega, who won that race for the last
six years.
Equipped with blinkers for the first time
this season, Jonjo O'Neill's Gold Cup-
hope Holywell returned to winning ways
at Kelso last week, when landing the 3m
2f chase. The result saw most
bookmakers cut Holywell to between
9/1 and 12/1 for the Gold Cup. At the
same Kelso meeting, the progressive
Glingerburn, trained by Nicky Richards,
landed the Morebattle Hurdle to take his
tally of hurdles wins to three in three
starts. Currently entered in the Supreme
Novices' Hurdle, according to Richards,
Glingerburn may instead return to Kelso
and then head on to Aintree or Ayr, for
the Scottish Champion Hurdle meeting.
Ladbrokes' business director, Mike
O'Kane, has been re-elected as chairman
of ESSA (the European Sports Security
Association) for a further two years. ESSA
is the integrity body for betting operators
and has 18 members, following the recent
addition of the PMU and Skybet.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
Last Saturday's column yielded no fewer than four
winners, including Marco Botti's 5/1 winner of the
Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield. Unlike last
weekend, this Saturday's Channel 4 racing
coverage centres entirely on Jumps action, from
Doncaster (2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45) and
Newbury (1.45, 2.15, 2.50 and 3.25).
In terms of the general Jumps form, in the past
week (to Monday, 23 February), Tony McCoy
continues to get the winners, riding 7 in the
period, ahead of the 5 apiece of James Reveley
and Tom Scudamore. McCoy and Reveley led the
way jointly by strike rate, with 31% each. By wins,
the most successful Jumps trainers of the past
week were David Pipe and Jonjo O'Neill, who each
saddled 5 winners, with Pipe's 35% strike giving
him the edge over O'Neill (31%), though Kim
Bailey was the man in form, with a whopping 57%.
The first race from Doncaster's televised meeting
is a 2m handicap chase (2.00), in which the
return to better ground (good-soft) could help
Venetia Williams's Vivaccio, who is one of the less-
exposed horses in the race and is 3 from 5 on the
ground and 2 from 4 over distance. Trainer
Michael Smith hasn't been in winning form of late,
but his progressive chaser Cango is unbeaten on
the ground is 2 from 4 over distance. The 2.35 is
a Listed mares' hurdle which looks like a good
opportunity for Harry Fry's (40% last 14 days)
Bitofapuzzle to win her third race in four starts
over hurdles. She is also unbeaten over the 3m
distance. Peter Bowen's (19% last 14 days)
Princess Tara may provide the stiffest opposition.
The 3m handicap hurdle at Doncaster (3.10) looks
an interesting option for David Pipe's (35% last 14
days) Batavir, who has winning form on the ground
and has been staying on at the end of his last two
winning runs, over 2m 6f. Nicky Henderson's team
is also in flying form (32% last 14 days) and his
charge, Call The Cops, may be suited by the step
up in distance, and has winning form on the
ground. Nicky Richards's Warriors Tale was hiked
up the ratings after an easy win over 2m 6f last
time, but he could have more to offer over this
longer distance. Richards has a 27% strike rate in
the past 14 days and 23% at the course in the past
five seasons. The 3m 2f handicap chase at 3.45
could mark the return of Harry Fry's Triangular, who
has been out of action for more than a year, but
missed the Grade 3 3m chase at Kempton last
Saturday, possibly in favour of this race. Venetia
Williams's Aachen could be one to take a second
look at, having won a veterans’ chase last time over
course and distance off the same handicap mark,
and on the same ground he has for this race.
At Newbury, the 1.45, a 2m 5f veterans' handicap
hurdle, looks an open contest. Of the trainers with
entrants, Paul Nicholls has the best winning record
at Newbury in the long term, and his entrant Provo
is interesting, having appeared not to stay 3m last
time and should be fitter for the run. Neil
Mulholland's (17% last 14 days) Leave It Be was
third at Chepstow behind a couple of decent sorts
and is unexposed. In the veteran's handicap
chase, Ballyoliver has winning form on the ground,
over distance and at this course, with Harry Fry's
afore-mentioned Triangular also entered in this
race. David Pipe's Soll is unbeaten on the ground
and may not be handicapped out of the equation
following his last time out win. Donald McCain's
(19% last 14 days) Cinders And Ashes, a former
winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle looked as
though he needed the run last time and could be
handily rated on the pick of his form. Paul Nicholls's
Qualando could also go well, as a less exposed type
with winning form on the ground. In the 3.25, the
Grade 3 handicap chase over 2m 4f, Paul
Nicholls's pair of entrants, Sound Investment and
Rebel Rebellion, both sit at the top of the weights
but have sound claims on their winning form over
distance and on soft ground. David Bridgwater's
(33% last 14 days) No Buts was an impressive
winner at Newbury two starts ago and then fell at
Cheltenham in a hotter race next time. He may be
more open to improvement than some.
============================================



RACE RATING.

Saturday, 28 February - 4.10 Kelso
Totepool Premier Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m 7f 110y





U0-800 Across The Bay 14 11 Donald McCain
A formerly smart hurdler who has been a fine
servant to the yard over the years. However, three
runs this season, over fences and hurdles, have all
been fairly lacklustre. Stable has good record at this
course, but Across The Bay's best form has been on
more testing ground than the good-soft expected
and there's no obvious reason why he should be a
leading contender in this race. RATING 93
111362 Baileys Concerto 35 9 Dianne Sayer
Decent ground should help the prospects of this
improving chaser who posted a career-best
effort last time when second in the Great
Yorkshire Chase, on his first start over 3m. That
form entitles him to respect in this company, if
still a few pounds short of the best of these on
official ratings. Has place or small each-way
claims. RATING 96
141132 Big Water 12 7 Alan Swinbank
A second-season novice-chaser who improved in
the early stages of this season but has seemingly
been held in Class 3 handicap chases on two
latest starts, if not beaten very far. Handles good
ground, though pick of form suggests he's a
better horse with plenty of cut underfoot. Could
be open to further improvement, but others look
more convincing. RATING 94
F-4215 Black Thunder 35 8 Paul Nicholls
Accounted for some notable scalps as a novice-
chaser last season, including this season's Gold
Cup fancy Many Clouds, who turned the tables
last month in the Grade 2 3m chase at
Cheltenham's Trials Day. However, this race
looks an easier contest and Black Thunder was
an easy winner at this level before Christmas.
Should go well. RATING 99
FP6/9P Bold Sir Brian 70 9 Lucinda Russell
Looked a horse on the upgrade as a second-
season chaser, two seasons ago, easily winning
a Listed intermediate chase from a solid yardstick
trained by Paul Nicholls. Hasn't looked the same
horse since falling on next start after that win and
has questions to answer here. RATING 94
012U6- Cloudy Too 315 9 Sue Smith
Developed into a decent 3m chaser last season,
winning the Rowland Meyrick en route to
finishing a respectable if held-second behind
the top-class Captain Chris in the Ascot Chase
next time. Beaten when unseating in the Gold
Cup and not disgraced on final start, when sixth
in a Class 2 handicap chase at Haydock. This
race is probably a reasonable starting point for
his return to action, and does go well fresh, but
will need to be at the top of his game against the
best of these. RATING 98
13P426 Howard ́s Legacy 12 9 Venetia Williams
Has won once and twice been placed in 3m
handicap chases this season, but looks held off
current handicap mark of 129 over fences and
better form seems to be on softer ground. Stable
having fine time this season, but Howard's
Legacy has work to do in this race. RATING 94
81-P01 Mon Parrain 58 9 Paul Nicholls
A fairly lightly-raced son of Trempolino who possibly
has had a couple of issues given sizeable gaps
between runs since joining stable four years ago.
However, when on song has run very well, winning
two Class 2 handicap chases at Cheltenham,
including last time, over 3m 2f, on soft ground.
Also handles decent ground and could be
thereabouts in this race on best form. RATING 98
41446U Rattlin 7 7 Sue Smith
Won a 3m beginners' chase at Uttoxeter on
second start this season, but has since been
1-3221 Carlito Brigante 133 9 Karen McLintock
Formerly trained by Gordon Elliott, for whom
he won the Coral Cup three seasons ago.
Joined current yard 18 months ago or so
and has been rejuvenated, winning a 3m 2f
handicap chase under top-weight by 17
lengths at this course last time. More
required in this company, but worth a
second glance while in good form and as
one lower down the weights.
RATING 100
41446U Rattlin 7 7 Sue Smith
Won a 3m beginners' chase at Uttoxeter on
second start this season, but has since been
well beaten in all three completed starts and
unseated early on in the Eider Chase last
Saturday. Others preferred. RATING 91
22124 Runswick Royal 14 6 Ann Hamilton
Second in the Grade 1 4yo Hurdle at Aintree two
seasons ago, this Excellent Art gelding is one of
the less-exposed entrants, having only run five
times over fences to date. Ran near his best when
a keeping-on fourth on first run over 2m 5f last
time, and could go well if stepping up in distance
unlocks further improvement. RATING 96
6-4405 Saphir River 57 9 Lucinda Russell
Experienced hurdler who only has three chase
starts to his name, but seems to be
handicapped to the hilt now over timber, which
possibly explains connections' switch to fences
for this race, which will be his first chase in two
years. Has run some big races at Festivals in the
past, and seems up against it here. RATING 93
4-31U Sa Suffit 18 12 James Ewart
Seasoned chaser who has had lengthy periods
of absence from the racecourse but clearly has
some ability. Recent win came at the expense of
Big Water, but still has plenty to find with
expected protagonists. RATING 95
641-P2 Streams Of Whiskey 92 8 Nicky Richards
Stable going well at the moment and forecast
decent ground should suit this son of Spadoun,
who is arguably unexposed over 3m over fences
and has shown glimmers of ability. That said, he
has made his share of mistakes and has fallen
or pulled up in four of his seven starts over
fences to date. A possible improver, if not the
most consistent performer. RATING 95
3-2112 Upsilon Bleu 21 7 Pauline Robson
A reliable and improving chaser who finished
second to the rejuvenated Mr Mole in a Grade
2 at Newbury earlier this month and who has
improved 14lb over fences this season and last.
Has yet to run over further than 2m 4f, so
distance is a question mark. Otherwise, may
have been one with small win claims. RATING 97
7-801 William Money 16 8 Chris Grant
Course and distance winner in a Class 3
handicap chase last time, and forecast ground
for this Saturday should suit. On the flip side, he
has a lot to find with the best of these on official
ratings and his best hope looks to be some
minor place prize money if the race cuts up to
only a few runners. RATING 92
====================================


NOTEBOOK.

In Kempton's Pendil Novices' Chase last Saturday,
the Alan King-trained
HOLLOW PENNY
was never
on terms with the winner, Irish Saint, but ran on well
enough to suggest he could be a handicap chaser
to watch out for over 2m 4f or more this season and
next. He won three modest handicap chases over
2m 2f and 2m 4f between August and October, and
was then a held-second of three runners in the
Grade 2 novices' chase at Wincanton. He has
ability, but is probably a decent handicapper rather
than a Graded race star, particularly on better
ground as we move into the spring.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
This column enjoyed yet another successful Saturday
last weekend, when the selections highlighted by the
stats for the featured races yielded four winners (8/1,
11/2, 7/2 and 3/1) for the second week running! This
Saturday’s Channel 4-televised coverage is split
between the Jumps meeting from Sandown (2.00,
2.35, 3.10 and 3.45) and Wolverhampton's all-
weather Flat meeting (2.15 and 2.50).
With Jumps and Flat action to follow, let's have a look
at the stats for both codes (in the week ending
Monday, 2 March). Luke Morris was the top Flat
jockey, with 6 wins, though his 19% strike rate is
readily bettered by the 44% of Freddie Tylicki (4 wins)
and 33% of Adam Kirby (5 wins). Flat trainer Richard
Fahey has been in fine form in the past fortnight, with
6 winners and a 43% strike rate. Charlie Appleby's 5
winners in the same period (22%) put him just ahead
of Tony Carroll.
Over Jumps, Tony McCoy and Brian Hughes were the
leading jockeys by wins (6 each) over the past week,
ahead of Wayne Hutchinson and Leighton Aspell (4
each), with Hutchinson's 44% strike rate leading the
way, just ahead of Hughes's 37.5%. Top Jumps trainer
was Jonjo O'Neill, whose 4 wins (31% strike rate)
bettered the 3 winners of several trainers, amid
whom Nicky Henderson shone brightly, having
achieved that tally from only 3 runners and thus
recorded a perfect 100% strike rate. David
Bridgwater (3 wins from 5 starts) couldn't quite
emulate the Seven Barrows maestro, but his 60%
strike rate was no mean feat.
The first of the televised races at Sandown is the 2m
4f Grade 3 novices' handicap hurdle at 2pm. Nicky
Henderson has won this race twice in the past four
seasons and either of his entrants, West Wizard or
Aigle De La See, could go well, with the latter having
winning form over distance, at the course and on the
expected heavy ground. Yorkshire trainer John Quinn
has a 40% strike rate at the course since 2010 and
his four-year-old L'Aigle Royale could be handily
weighted, as could Jamie Snowden's Monbeg
Theatre, who is 2 from 3 over distance and has a 3lb
pull at the weights with Aigle De La See, having
finished second to that horse last time. The 2.35 is
the 3m ½f handicap chase and Tom Symonds'
improving Kings Apollo could go well in these
conditions (2 from 4 on ground, 1 from 3 over
distance) from the bottom of the weights. Of the
trainers with entrants in this race, Charlie Longsdon
has the third-best course record by wins in the past
five seasons and his charge, Loose Chips, is now on
a workable mark of 129, off which he ran well over
course and distance when second three weeks ago.
Sandown's feature race of the day is the Imperial Cup
(3.10), a 2m ½f Grade 3 handicap hurdle. Paul
Nicholls' Calipto should enjoy the conditions and runs
in this race off the same mark in which he was a
good fourth in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last
time. Another who ran well in testing ground was
Heath Hunter, trained by David Pipe. He is unexposed
and his trainer has won this race three times in the
last 10 years. John Ferguson has a number of
possible runners in the race, among which Zip Top,
who was a very good Flat horse, has won two of his
three starts in novice hurdles in soft ground, and
could be handily weighted for his handicap debut
over hurdles. The 3.45 is a Listed mares' bumper in
which Paul Nicholls' Lifeboat Mona should have a
good chance. Her form has been working out and
unlike most in this race, she has already won at this
level. Gordon Elliott's Whistle Dixie has been prolific
at a lower level in Ireland and should enjoy the
conditions, as should Hollies Pearl, trained by Peter
Bowen; she wasn't beaten far by Lifeboat Mona last
time and is better off at the weights in this race.
At Wolverhampton, the 2.15 is a 7f Listed race which
looks a good opportunity for Chookie Royale to win
this race for a second time, following last year's
victory. Marco Botti has the best trainer record at this
course (by wins) among those with entrants in this
race, having saddled the winner twice in the last 10
years and Al Thakira is weighted to possibly provide
a third. Botti's Solar Deity could play a role in the
2.45, the Lincoln Trial, a 1m 141y handicap; he has
multiple winning form over distance, at this course
and on the all-weather surface. Similar comments
apply to Sir Mark Prescott's progressive filly, Don't Be.
===================================================
RACE RATING.


The following horses were entered for this race but many may not run. The runner with the highest rating will be the selection
of our team.
Race Ratings
2.15 Wolverhampton - Saturday, 7 March
Ladbrokes Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW)(Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) 7f 32y





3200-7 Alben Star 14 7 Richard Fahey
Was fifth in this race last year, and has
improved at least 7lb over the course of last
season, according to official ratings. Best bit
of form came when half-length second to the
July Cup runner-up, Tropics, in a Listed race
at Newmarket. Could have come on for his
seasonal debut last time and yard is in red-
hot form. Respected. RATING 98
3-5211 Baddilini 14 5 Alan Bailey
Posted career-best effort when winning a
£28k handicap at Lingfield, ahead of Grey
Mirage. Meets the latter on worse terms at
the weights and though in good, improving
form, he looks to have work to do in this
company. RATING 95
6251-0 Billingsgate 51 4 Charlie Appleby
A first time out winner on sole start at two,
this son of Exceed And Excel developed into
a progressive and solid handicapper last
season. Was never a factor on latest run at
Meydan, Dubai, in January, if not beaten far
by the winner. Not ruled out on first start at
this level, but others look more convincing.
RATING 95
02517- Capo Rosso 112 5 Tom Dascombe
Has won four races from eight starts around
here, including over distance, but balance of
form suggests he has to raise his game faced
with some of his possible opponents in this
company, despite generally progressive
profile last season. RATING 94
08-531 Chookie Royale 9 7 Keith Dalgleish
The winner of last year's race, Chookie
Royale isn't getting any younger but he is still
capable of mixing at this level, judging by his
front-running win when top-weight in a 6f
handicap last time. Back up to a trip which
suits, and has plenty of positives. Should be
thereabouts. RATING 99
111-11 Don ́t Be 33 5 Sir Mark Prescott Bt
A Cape Cross filly who joined this shrewd
trainer last summer and, following a wind op,
has made hay in recent starts, all in 7f
handicaps, including at this course last time.
According to connections' post-race quotes,
black type is a possible aim and no surprise
to see her figure in this race, even allowing
for the fact she'll need to improve on what
she's shown so far. RATING 97
837-52 Glen Moss 14 6 Martyn Meade
Listed-placed over last season, which was jointly
his best bit of form alongside his second in the
Victoria Cup (handicap), over the same 7f
distance. Narrowly denied a win last time in a
Listed race over 6f at Lingfield, when appearing
outpaced. A lively candidate. RATING 98
825-22 Grey Mirage 14 6 Marco Botti
Very good all-weather performer who has gone
close in two valuable 7f handicaps in last two
starts, beaten only a head by Baddilini last
time. Enjoys a pull at the weights in this race
with that winner, and should go well, if looking
like stable's second string behind Al Thakira on
recent form. RATING 96
13210- Hillbilly Boy 260 5 Martin Smith
Unraced since finishing midfield in the
Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot,
though that run followed a clearcut win in a
Class 3 7f Newmarket handicap. Has course
and distance form, but this race looks a stiff
enough task on return to action. RATING 90
32-219 History Book 14 5 John Butler
Fair daughter of Raven's Pass who has run
consistently in handicaps thus far, but was
slightly disappointing when tried for the first
time at this level last time, beaten by Glen
Moss, Intransigent and Alben Star. Has
something to prove. RATING 92
91-252 Holiday Magic 7 4 Charlie Appleby
Has developed into a decent all-weather
performer, and this grey son of Dark Angel ran
his best race to date when a close second in
a 1m Class 3 handicap at Lingfield last time.
Drop back in trip might help, but could be
outclassed in this company. RATING 95
8131-6 Intransigent 14 6 Andrew Balding
As his trainer half-expected, according to pre-
race media comments, Intransigent looked
in need of the run last time in a 6f Listed race
at Lingfield. Best form of last season,
including 7f soft-ground Ascot handicap win
and Group and Listed race performances,
suggest he could go close here. RATING 98
32121- Khatiba 99 4 Roger Varian
Improving filly who won on her seasonal and
racing debut last year, winning twice in the
nine starts that followed, including a fillies'
conditions race over distance on final outing.
If up to speed for this race, she could sneak
a place. RATING 96
1613-1 Mr Bossy Boots 45 4 Ralph Beckett
Improving Teofilo colt who has won three
times from five starts, and though upward
curve is pleasing, he needs to take a sizeable
step forward in this race to trouble likely
protagonists. RATING 95
0518-1 Quatorze 21 5 F Rohaut
Useful French-trained son of Elusive City who
won an all-weather Listed race at Cagnes Sur
Mer last month. Unlikely that race was quite
to the level of this, so probably has a bit to
find, but respected. RATING 97
121-10 Shyron 14 4 George Margarson
Disappointed when favourite last time, in the
race won by Baddilini, so has something to
find with that horse, Grey Mirage and the third-
placed Sovereign Debt, if the form is to be
taken literally. If run was only a bad day at the
office, he has small each-way claims through
his previously progressive form. RATING 96
282/23 Sovereign Debt 14 6 David Nicholls
Ran well when third last time, off a 4lb higher
mark than previously, despite being shuffled
back at one stage. Unraced last season, but
form for previous trainer included a second
in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes. Could go
well. RATING 98
254-44 Victoria Regina 16 4 David Simcock
Daughter of Mastercraftsman who ran well
but held on first two starts for this stable, in
Group 2 races in Meydan in January. Drop
back in trip for this race may help, and looks
a likely front-runner. RATING 96
80315- Al Thakhira 141 4 Marco Botti
Trainer has won this race twice in the last
six years and this looks a feasible starting
point for this son of Dubawi, who was
highly tried last season, running but held
in the French and Irish 2,000 Guineas
races. However, less exposed than some
entered in this race and was competitive
in Group 2 and 3 races, auguring well for
prospects on this drop in class, if ready to
go first time out.
RATING 100

===========================================

RACING NEWS.


Following a clear-cut win at Doncaster last
Saturday, the Nicky Henderson-trained Call
The Cops was made 8/1 ante-post favourite
for the Listed Pertemps Final at next week's
Cheltenham Festival. Henderson described
the performance as a "pleasing run".
Flat jockey Richard Kingscote hopes to ride
Irish St Leger winner Brown Panther in the
Dubai World Cup on 28 March. Kingscote
broke his right elbow, arm and wrist, and
punctured both lungs, when caught up in a
five-horse pile-up at Wolverhampton last
November. He was passed fit to ride by his
surgeon, with the possibility of returning to
the saddle this Saturday, 7 March.
Megan Nicholls, daughter of champion
trainer Paul, rode her first winner as a
professional jockey last Friday. The win
came on her fourth ride, aboard the James
Eustace-trained Gios Last in the
apprentices' handicap at Wolverhampton.
Jonjo O'Neill says he is considering
dropping stable star Taquin Du Seuil back
in trip having failed to convince over 3m this
season. The winner of the Grade 1 JLT
Novices' Chase last season, Taquin Du Seuil
was viewed as a lively candidate for the
Cheltenham Gold Cup at the start of the
current campaign, but O'Neill is considering
running him in the 2m 5f Grade 1 Ryanair
Chase, or possibly trying him in handicap
company, in the Grade 3 Plate Chase, over
the same distance.
Leading Jumps owner Graham Wylie
reports that one of his best prospects at
the Cheltenham Festival this year is the
Willie Mullins-trained Black Hercules. The
six-year-old, who was fourth in the
Champion Bumper last season, hasn't
raced since December, but is two from
two over hurdles and Wylie reports the
stable to be happy with him.
The Willie Mullins team enjoyed a fine
French success with Gitanes Du Berlais,
who won the Grade 3 hurdle at Auteuil on
Sunday. The five-year-old daughter of Balko
was last seen on the racecourse when
landing the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices'
Chase from Irish Saint at Sandown in
January, and connections decided to
swerve Cheltenham and come to France,
given the probability of her preferred soft
ground and decent prize money. Reports
suggest Gitanes Du Berlais will switch back
to fences, and may head next to
Fairyhouse's Irish Grand National meeting
in April, for the Grade 1 Ryanair Gold Cup,
and maybe then on to the Punchestown
Festival later in the month.
Last week wasn't all plain sailing for the
Mullins team further to their Grand
National prospect Back In Focus injuring
himself in his box and casting doubt on
his participation at Aintree next month.
The 10-year-old was found to have broken
his eye-socket and cheek-bone after
banging his head overnight.
Four-time Group 1 winner Sole Power could
return to action at this Saturday's meeting
at Meydan racecourse in Dubai, in the
Group 3 Meydan Sprint, the same race in
which he launched his 2013 and 2014
campaigns. If all goes well on Saturday,
connections are reportedly considering the
Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint Stakes, back at
Meydan racecourse, on Dubai World Cup
night, on Saturday, 28 March.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.
Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.

This Saturday's televised races (Channel 4) come
from Kempton (1.45, 2.20 and 3.30), Lingfield (2.30
and 3.05) and Uttoxeter (2.05, 2.40, 3.15 and 3.50).
With Jumps and Flat racing on offer, let's take a
general look at the form for both codes in the past
week (to Monday, 9 March). On the Flat, the leading
jockey has been Ryan Moore, by both wins (5) and
strike rate (50%), ahead of Joe Fanning (4 wins). Top
Flat trainer by a country mile was Charlie Appleby (7
wins, 77% strike rate). Over Jumps, Brian Hughes was
the leading jockey, with 6 wins, 2 clear of several
rivals, including Daryl Jacob and Noel Fehily (36% and
33% respectively). Top UK Jumps trainer of the period
was A M Hales, who saddled 4 winners and whose
50% strike rate was only bettered by the 60% of Nigel
Hawke.
At 1.45, the first of the televised races from Kempton
is a novices' handicap chase in which Paul Nicholls's
Art Mauresque catches the eye thanks to the trainer's
long-term 21% strike rate at the course. Colin Tizzard's
Gentleman Jon looks a viable alternative, with the
drop in class and return to better ground expected to
suit. Both of his wins to date came in March, too. The
2.20 is a Class 2 handicap hurdle over 2m 5f, and the
3.30 is a Class 2 handicap chase over 2m 4½f. Both
races are back-up options for horses who missed the
cut for the handicap hurdles or chases at the
Cheltenham Festival this week. As such, it's difficult
to know who might line up, but Nicky Henderson's
runners deserve a second glance thanks to his
superb current form (40% last 14 days) and long-term
record at the course (29%), though that is notably
bettered by the 46% of Harry Fry.
The 2.30 at Lingfield is a 7f Listed race in which the
in-form trainer Charlie Appleby (30% last 14
days/32% at course last five seasons) has a fair
chance with his improving Four Seasons, who is
unbeaten in two starts at Lingfield and in three starts
on the all-weather. Richard Hannon's (18% at course
last five seasons) Burnt Sugar is another who is
unbeaten at this course and on the all-weather. The
Group 3 Winter Derby (3.05) looks a logical step-up
in class for Charlie Appleby's Tryster, who has made
eye-catching progress in handicaps lately. John Ryan's
(29% last 14 days) Tenor was an unlucky runner-up
in a conditions race over course and distance in
December and should go well according to his official
rating. Another option could be Marco Botti's dual
course-and-distance winner, Grendisar.
Uttoxeter's Midlands Grand National is the feature
race of the day at the Staffordshire course (3.50).
Historically, this is a race that has favoured horses
lower down the weights, and Alan King's improving
novice chaser Desert Joe is interesting through his
winning form on the expected good-soft ground, as is
the Venetia Williams-trained Ballyoliver and Oliver
Sherwood's Global Power. The first of the televised
races from Uttoxeter (2.05) is a 2m handicap hurdle
in which trainer Trevor Wall's course and distance
winner Fairy Alisha has a shout, as she is just 3lb
above her last winning mark. Dianne Sayer's Weapon
Of Choice ran well on his handicap debut last time,
when top-weight, and is on the same mark for this
race. The 2.40 is a novices' limited handicap chase
over 3m in which Deputy Dan looks to have a chance,
having been running in Graded races recently and is
a former course winner. Also, his trainer, Oliver
Sherwood, has a 26% strike rate in the last 14 days.
Lower down the weights, David Pipe's Top Wood may
prefer the return to better ground (2 from 4 on good-
soft). The 3.15 at Uttoxeter is a 2m 4f 110y handicap
hurdle and Emma Lavelle's improving hurdler Private
Malone could go well again, having won his last four
starts, including on good-soft, and may still be one
step ahead of the handicapper. Philip Hobbs's (19%
at this course last five seasons) Scoop The Pot has
won once from only two starts over hurdles and is
interesting in this race on what could be his handicap
debut, having been staying on in more testing ground
so far.

===========================================





RACE RATING.



2.30 Lingfield - Saturday, 14 March


148-05 Burnt Sugar 30 3 Richard Hannon
Held in two races in Dubai this year, but
of interest in this race through decent
form last year, which included a one-
length fourth in a French Group 1 race
over this distance, which followed his win
in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at
Kempton. Won on the all-weather at this
course last season, so should be
thereabouts if back on song.
RATING 100

1651- Angelic Lord 185 3 Tom Dascombe
Made the right impression when winning a 5f
Ripon maiden on his debut last June, with
the useful runner-up twice placed in Listed
races since. Stepped up markedly when sixth
in the Coventry Stakes next time and ran to
a similar level of form when fifth in another
Group 2 race the following month. Justified
odds-on favouritism when landing a
conditions race at Doncaster's St Leger
meeting, beating a progressive runner-up
who was second in a Group 3 next time, but
Angelic Lord didn't look the most
straightforward of rides that day. Has ability
and step up to 7f could suit. RATING 99
2155-2 Caprior Bere 24 3 K R Burke
Rounded off a mixed but generally
progressive season last year when a held-
second on his all-weather debut in a 1m
handicap at Kempton. Interesting on drop
back in trip from 1m as two wins last year
came over 6f and 7f, so not one readily ruled
out, if needing to improve a little on best
previous form. RATING 95
1464-5 Carry On Deryck 10 3 David Evans
Was a ready winner at 25/1 on his racing
debut, in an ordinary Newbury maiden last
August. Stepped up on that with three
respectable runs in Listed races over the rest
of the season, and while he might be entitled
to come on for the run when a beaten
seventh in a Class 3 handicap over course
and distance last time, he has eight lengths
to find with the winner, Four Seasons.
RATING 93
62-11 Charlie Bear 29 3 Jamie Osborne
Has won two from two this year, on the all-
weather, prior to joining Jamie Osborne's
Lambourn stables last month. Looked to
have a fair amount in reserve on latest win
and it may be worth watching the markets
ahead of this possible British debut for any
signs of support. One of the less exposed
entrants in this race. RATING 96
31543- Fanciful Angel 154 3 Marco Botti
Stable enjoying a fine time of things on the
British all-weather course this year and
Fanciful Angel looks ready to step up to this
trip, having stayed on when respectably
placed fourth and third in Group 3 and Listed
races over 6f at the backend of last season.
His Group 3-fourth (on the all-weather) came
behind Burnt Sugar, so has something to find
with that horse, but could sneak a place in
this company. RATING 96
3411-1 Four Seasons 10 3 Charlie Appleby
Stable is in red-hot form at the moment, and
this dual course-and-distance winner could
still be a horse on the upgrade, judging by his
recent winning seasonal debut when top
weight in a Class 3 handicap. Needs to
improve according to official figures, to have
a chance of winning this race, but that
possibility isn't ruled out. RATING 97
33384- Lexington Times 140 3 Richard Hannon
Beaten-favourite in the Group 3 Horris Hill
Stakes at Newbury at end of last season, but
was a good third at Sandown earlier in the
campaign, also in a Group 3 over 7f, and that
form gives him a fair shout here, if taking to
the artificial surface in this race, which would
be his all-weather debut. RATING 98
1 Star Asset 31 3 Michael Wigham
Well regarded son of Dutch Art who won over
course and distance on his debut last time,
despite some signs of greenness. Early paper
form suggests he didn't beat the strongest of
fields, but he's entitled to improve on that
performance, and will have to, if he wants to
be seriously considered alongside proven
Group and Listed race performers.
RATING 96
472-00 Surewecan 16 3 Mark Johnston
Was outclassed when tried in the Group 2
Richmond Stakes last year, when beaten by
the winner, Ivawood, who also finished ahead
of Fanciful Angel by a shorter margin in the
July Stakes. Surewecan's second in a novice
stakes at Leicester sets his standard; good,
but up against it in this company. RATING 93
21076- Tongue Twista 134 3 Nick Littmoden
Scored an easy maiden win at Brighton
following respectable but held efforts in
Group 2 and 3 races over the summer.
Rounded off 2014 campaign with similar
results back in pattern races and no obvious
reason why she should fare better in what
looks a competitive enough starting point for
this season. RATING 92
===================================================





NOTEBOOK.


Trainer Suzy Smith's hurdling debutant
GINNY'S TONIC
made a solid start to her
career over obstacles when a staying-on
fourth in the 2m 5f National Hunt novices'
hurdle at Plumpton's meeting last Monday.
From a family of winning hurdlers and
chasers at distances between 2m 4f and 3m,
she may improve for running over even
further, and is entitled to come on for her run,
which was only her second racecourse outing
to date. She may be one to watch out for
against her own sex, possibly in handicaps if
not getting off the mark in novices' hurdles
first.
At Taunton,
JACKTHEJOURNEYMAN
looked a
slightly unlucky runner-up when an error at
the last fence cost him a probable victory. He
had attracted support in the markets ahead
of this run, for which he was equipped with a
first-time tongue-tie and running off a career-
low handicap mark. This was only his fourth
start over fences, so he may be able to go
one better in similarly modest races.

[Kimmy]

SATURDAY 14=3=15.

RACES SHOWN ON TERRESTRIAL TV
1:45 KEM 888Sport.com Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase Cl3 2m CH4 Card Betting
2:05 UTT Betfred "Treble Odds On Lucky 15´s" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Cl4 2m CH4 Card Betting
2:20 KEM Kempton Park 888Sport.com Silver Plate (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 2m5f CH4 Card Betting
2:30 LIN 32Red Spring Cup (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f1y CH4 Card Betting
2:40 UTT Betfred TV Ltd Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase Cl3 3m CH4 Card Betting
3:05 LIN coral.co.uk Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f CH4 Card Betting
3:15 UTT Betfred "Home of Goals Galore" Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m4f110y CH4 Card Betting
3:30 KEM Kempton Park 888Sport.com Silver Bowl (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 2m4f110y CH4 Card Betting
3:50 UTT Betfred Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 4m1f110y CH4 Card Betting
============================================


SCOOP6 RACES
2:20 KEM Kempton Park 888Sport.com Silver Plate (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 2m5f CH4 Card Betting
2:40 UTT Betfred TV Ltd Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase Cl3 3m CH4 Card Betting
3:05 LIN coral.co.uk Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f CH4 Card Betting
3:15 UTT Betfred "Home of Goals Galore" Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m4f110y CH4 Card Betting
3:30 KEM Kempton Park 888Sport.com Silver Bowl (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 2m4f110y CH4 Card Betting
3:50 UTT Betfred Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 4m1f110y CH4 Card Betting

[Kimmy]

Saturday's Scoop6 pot to hit £600,000
THE totescoop6 is predicted to be worth £600,000 to a single winner as last Saturday's pot rolls over on to this weekend's action.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
Our highlighted stats in last week's newsletter
led us to three winners and two second places
among our featured race selections, including
Nicky Henderson's 7/1 winner at Kempton. We
hope for more of the same this Saturday, for
which we turn our attention to the Channel 4 -
televised races from Kelso (2.15, 2.50 and 3.25)
and Newbury (2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45).
The last seven days (to Monday, 16 March) were
something of a purple patch for Barry Geraghty,
who rode the most winners of any UK Jump
jockey (5 wins) and whose 20% strike rate was
only exceeded by the 28% of James Reveley. Tom
Scudamore wasn't far off, with 4 wins. Of the
trainers, Paul Nicholls tied with Nicky Henderson
by winners (6 each), with the latter's superior
19% strike rate just giving him the edge, with
Jonjo O'Neill not far off with 5 winners, and a
22% strike rate.
At Newbury, the 2.00 is the Class 2 handicap
chase over 2m 4f, in which Philip Hobbs'
Carrigmorna King will have some decent (good-
soft) ground. He has winning form on the ground,
over distance and at this course, and he could go
well, as could the Jonjo O'Neill-trained Oscar
Fortune, another who has conditions to suit, but
is less exposed and may be one step ahead of the
handicapper. Newbury's 2.35 race is the Listed
mares' novices' handicap hurdle, in which David
Pipe's (£40+ per £1 level stake profit at the
course over the last five years) Twentytwo's Taken
looks a potential improver, while Robert Tyner's
Carrigmoorna Rock looks the class act and her
trainer has a 50% record at the course in the long
term. Another to consider is Peter Bowen's Rons
Dream, as the stable is in good form (17%) and
has a good record at the course (19%).
The 3m 2f handicap chase at Newbury (3.10) could
provide Oliver Sherwood's progressive Financial
Climate with a chance of chalking up a hat trick of
three wins, and is the only horse with winning form
over distance, on the ground and at the course.
Nicky Henderson's (most-winning trainer at the
course over last five seasons) Medieval Chapel is
a younger, improving horse and is possibly a step
ahead of the handicapper. In the 3.45, Philip
Hobbs' Golden Doyen has a fair chance, if none the
worse for his fall in the Fred Winter last week. His
previous form includes a narrow beating by a horse
who went on to finish second in the Triumph
Hurdle. In the same race, Andrew Balding's (33%
at course since 2010, over Jumps) Storm Force Ten
has claims on the form of his second to the
Triumph Hurdle-winner Peace And Co, last time, in
the Grade 2 trial race in January.
Kelso's first televised race is a 3m 2f handicap
chase (2.15), which could be a good opportunity
for Donald McCain's The Last Samuri to regain the
winning thread after unseating his rider when in
contention last time. The Last Samuri is unbeaten
in four starts on soft ground and once over
distance, while Donald has the leading record by
wins at the course, and a fine 26% strike rate. Sun
Cloud, trained by Malcolm Jefferson (31% winners
last 14 days), has won three times on the ground.
The 2.50 at Kelso is a 3m 3f handicap hurdle, for
which David Pipe is sending Saint John Henry a
long way north from his Somerset yard. Saint John
Henry is 2 from 3 on the ground and unbeaten in
his last two starts since stepping up to 3m. The
form of Jonjo O'Neill's Milan Bound reads well
through his close second to a subsequent Grade
2 winner earlier this season and Jonjo O'Neill may
have only sent one runner to Kelso in the past five
seasons, but he won, providing a perfect 100%
strike rate. The 3.25 is a 2m 5½f novices'
handicap chase in which Jonjo O'Neill has another
lively candidate in Oscar Fortune (also entered at
Newbury), while Donald McCain's Degooch is
unbeaten in two starts on soft ground. Malcolm
Jefferson's Oscar Rock is worth a second glance,
who is 2 from 4 on the ground.
===========================================



RACE RATING.



2.35 NEWBURY.






214112 Allez Encore 17 6 Kim Bailey
From a family with winning NH form over distances
exceeding 2m 4f, the step-up in trip for this dual
hurdles winner should suit. Stable in good form.
RATING 96
3221P Ballyhollow 36 8 Rebecca Curtis
As a winning hurdler who made all over 3m two starts
ago, on soft ground, it may be that the return to
quicker ground and dropping back in trip might not
necessarily suit. Reportedly burst a blood vessel last
time when pulled up at Sandown, so may be best
watched for now. RATING 92
021421 Balmusette 21 6 Keith Reveley
Was a soft-ground winner in bumpers last season but
has shown best form in this campaign on good
ground, at distances between 2m 4f and 3m. Won a
Listed race over the latter distance with something
in hand last time, and could go well despite being
likely top-weight. RATING 97
351411 Bobs Lady Tamure 26 8 Maurice Barnes
Lost maiden tag on 16th start over hurdles, but has
made up for slow start with back-to-back wins on last
two outings, including a Class 3 handicap hurdle.
Testing conditions look necessary for her to do well
and she has to find a bit on this step up in class.
RATING 94
76224 Briery Belle 36 6 Henry Daly
Interesting in this company thanks to narrow defeat to
Balmusette in good-ground novices' hurdle in December,
at level-weights. Now 10lb better off with that horse in
this race, and return to better ground expected for this
race could see her go close. RATING 98
785111 Cresswell Breeze 23 5 Anthony Honeyball
Though viewed as one whose future is very much
over fences, Cresswell Breeze has progressed
sharply over hurdles in testing ground in recent
months, winning three races by wide margins in two
weeks. There could be more to come, but it's possible
she hasn't beaten too much to date and she faces
better opponents here on quicker ground. RATING 95
16222 Dusky Legend 51 5 Alan King
Bumper winner on good-soft on debut last October,
and has already been placed in Listed company this
season, behind the talented Bitofapuzzle, who was
placed in the Grade 1 mares' hurdle at Cheltenham
last week. Could be handily weighted for this race
according to that form and stable won this race three
years ago. RATING 98
6-2231 Hannah ́s Princess 22 6 Warren Greatrex
Stable having a good season and was among the
winners at Cheltenham last week. This mare got off
the mark when an easy winner on good ground last
time, but has to improve to figure here. RATING 94
1-317 Hel Tara 36 6 Nicky Henderson
Has won a bumper and a hurdle in four starts to date,
on good and soft ground, including over today's
distance. Looked a touch outclassed on latest start
in 2m 4f Listed mares' hurdle at Sandown, though an
early mistake didn't help. Could improve, but is held
by Briery Belle according to that last run. RATING 94
6-2F3 Hurricane’s Girl 22 6 Jonjo O ́Neill
Held by Hannah's Princess when a beaten-third
behind that mare last time. Was a good second on
her seasonal debut, behind a mare who finished
second in a Listed bumper at the end of last season.
Has to prove she stays this far and that she can
compete at this level. RATING 92
3-13 Kalane 41 6 Charlie Longsdon
By Kalanisi and out of an Old Vic mare, there's every
chance that the step-up in trip will suit this winning
hurdler, having been outpaced and beaten when
third in a Listed novices' hurdle at Exeter last time.
Not entirely written off as one who has raced just
three times, but needs to raise her game in this
company. RATING 93
1192P1 Kilronan High 13 6 Nigel Twiston-Davies
Has won on good and good-soft ground, with winning
form over 2m and 2m 3f. Not beaten far by Bitofapuzzle
in a 2m 6f maiden hurdle at Wincanton in December,
and returned to winning ways last time, staying on over
2m 3f at Market Rasen. Interesting. RATING 95
12521 Midnight Jazz 32 5 Ben Case
Though beaten a fair way by Carrigmoorna Rock
three starts ago, this daughter of Midnight Legend
has improved since then, getting off the mark when
beating the fair benchmark Avispa last time. If
progress continues, she could sneak a place at fair
odds here. RATING 96
42231 Morello Royale 58 5 Colin Tizzard
Possibly has something in hand through six-length
beating of Briery Belle on soft ground at Sandown
last time, though the runner-up did meet some
trouble in running. No surprise if she improves again,
but has something to prove on the quicker ground
expected today. RATING 97
741123 Queen Of The Stage 36 5 Nick Williams
Ran a big race under this jockey when third at
Sandown last time (Rons Dream second), when the
jockey wasn't permitted to use her claim. With that in
mind today, she could enjoy a sizeable advantage
over Rons Dream in this handicap, and has winning
form over this trip and ground. RATING 99
228125 Quiet Candid 15 6 Nicky Henderson
Won a modest mares' race by a clear-cut margin at
Towcester on a hurdling debut, before being beaten
by an improving winner at Ayr. Disappointed last time
on first start over this trip, when finishing tired.
RATING 93
71332 Rhythm Star 24 5 Jamie Snowden
Held in two starts in heavy-ground novices' hurdles
over 2m 6f at Wincanton, including when an odds-on
favourite last time. Return to better ground may help,
but may lack the class of the best of her fellow
entrants in this race. RATING 94
15312 Rons Dream 36 5 Peter Bowen
All best form in bumpers and over hurdles to date has
come on heavy or soft ground, which suggests that the
better ground expected for this race may not suit. Was
second in a Listed race at Sandown last time, but that
didn't necessarily represent an improved performance
and others may improve past her. RATING 96
44-315 Rosa Imperialis 29 6 Robert Walford
Aside from a 12-length win in a probably ordinary
mares' handicap hurdle at Fontwell on Boxing Day,
Rosa Imperalis has looked fairly average over hurdles
to date and it's hard to see her picking up black type
in this company. RATING 92
1-4142 Spartan Angel 92 7 Nicky Henderson
A winner on good ground in bumpers and over
hurdles to date, and has improved on soft ground
over distance in defeat in last two starts. Not exposed
and form of latest run, when second at Ascot in
December, looks solid enough. RATING 97
11722 Taniokey 18 5 Oliver Sherwood
Beat Avispa on good ground on hurdling debut, but
was then last and beaten by Carrigmoorna Rock at
Newbury next time. Has a nice pull at the weights
with Allez Encore, but doesn't look to have too much
in hand on her handicap debut. RATING 96
23-152 Tara Mist 52 6 Henry Daly
Third to Avispa in the Listed bumper at Aintree last
season, but was beaten by Dusky Legend in a Listed
mares' hurdle at Taunton over Christmas (2m), but
step up in trip to 2m 4f helped when second to a
subsequent Grade 3 winner at Leicester and has
claims in this company on that form. RATING 99
43-24 Taylor 108 6 Nicky Henderson
Disappointed when fourth behind Balmusette and Briery
Belle at Catterick last time, but was giving a lot of weight
away when only just beaten by Queen Of The Stage the
time before. Unexposed and comes here fresh for a top
stable with an excellent record in this race. RATING 95
431215 Theregoesthetruth 36 7 Henry Oliver
Fifth behind Rons Dream, Queen Of The Stage and
Briery Belle in a Listed race at Sandown last time.
Looks a bit more exposed than some and looks held
in this company. RATING 90
1-2121 Twentytwo ́s Taken 29 7 David Pipe
Has improved nicely in novices' hurdles this season,
on soft or heavy ground, in races all around the 2m
mark. Looks as though she could stay further and no
surprise to see her figure on her handicap debut for
a stable in decent form. RATING 96
72354 What A Jewel 32 5 Nicky Henderson
Held by Tara Mist and Midnight Jazz on form from
earlier this season and has quite a lot to find to enter
serious reckoning for this step up in class. RATING 91
4211P Carrigmoorna Rock 49 7 Robert Tyner
Won a Listed mares' novices' hurdle from an
interesting field over 2m at this course in November
(Balmusette was a beaten-fourth). Won a Grade 3
the time after, over 2m 4f on soft at Leopardstown,
and was pulled up after being slightly hampered last
time. Has won on decent ground and there may be
more to come.
RATING 100
================================================


RACING NEWS.



Changes to the scheduling for the British
Flat jockeys' championship proposed by
Great British Racing, the promotional group
that took over from Racing For Change, have
been criticised by a number of horsemen,
including leading Flat trainers Mark
Johnston, Jamie Osborne and Luke Morris.
Johnston predicted that the proposed
changes, in which the jockey's championship
would be decided by the number of winners
ridden between the Guineas meeting at
Newmarket, in early May, and the
Champions meeting at Ascot in mid-October,
would lead to Britain's top jockeys heading
overseas for more of the calendar year, to
pick up more lucrative rides.
Trainer Willie Mullins says that his record-
breaking charge, Hurricane Fly, who finished
a fine third in the stable's one-two-three in the
Champion Hurdle last week, may step up in
trip later this year. Mullins is considering the
three-mile French Champion Hurdle meeting
at Auteuil for the dual champion hurdler, as
well as the equivalent race at the
Punchestown Festival, which may also be a
target for his Champion Hurdle winner,
Faugheen.
The Mark Bradstock-trained Coneygree,
who last week became the first novice
chaser to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
since Captain Christy in 1974, was hailed by
his trainer as an improving horse.
Bradstock confirmed that Coneygree, who
was bred by the late Lord Oaksey, will not
run again this season, and will have races
such as Haydock's Betfair Chase and the
King George VI Chase at Kempton within his
sights next season.
Silviniaco Conti, who finished sixth when
favourite for last week's Cheltenham Gold
Cup, will bid to regain the winning thread in
the Bowl Chase at Aintree next month. The
nine-year-old's trainer, Paul Nicholls, said that
he didn't appear to handle the ground at
Cheltenham, and said that his fellow Grade
1-winning stablemate Zarkandar, who was
third in the World Hurdle, could also head to
Aintree for the Stayers' Hurdle.
Frankie Dettori, who enjoyed a Grade 1
winner at the Cheltenham Festival last week,
as the breeder of the Champion Chase
winner Dodging Bullets, looks likely to be the
one who will replace the outgoing William
Buick at John Gosden's Clarehaven Stables
this season. Dettori, a former three-time
champion jockey, was previously stable
jockey for Gosden in the 1990s, combining
to win the 1996 St Leger with Shantou.
Dettori has been riding lots of work for
Gosden in recent weeks, and rode the
stable's Winter Derby winner at Lingfield last
weekend. Gosden said that he hoped to use
Dettori whenever possible, subject to
availability in lieu of Dettori's position as
retained rider for Al Shaqab Racing.
Paul Nicholls' Cheltenham Festival successes
included a coup with the unexposed Aux Ptit
Soins in the Coral Cup. The ultra-competitive
Grade 3 handicap hurdle marked a British
racing debut for the five-year-old French
recruit, who had only twice ran over hurdles
previously, but had worked very well at home.
Nicholls reported after the win that he was
considering the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle as a
possible next target.
Jockey Gavin Sheehan and trainer Warren
Greatrex combined to record their maiden
Cheltenham Festival victory in the Grade 1
World Hurdle. Sheehan led from start to
finish aboard the Greatrex-trained Cole
Harden, whose improved performance
Greatrex attributed in part to a wind
operation since his run in the Cleeve Hurdle
in January.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

Our run of picking winners continued to last
Saturday, when the stats-influenced selections
yielded two winners (9/2 and 5/4), and we hope
for more of the same this Saturday, which marks
the start of the British Flat Turf season. As such,
Channel 4 is televising selected races from
Doncaster's Lincoln meeting (2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and
3.45) and also from Kempton's classy all-weather
meeting (2.15, 2.50 and 3.25).
The general Flat form for the past week (to
Monday, 23 March) finds northern-based jockeys
Shane Gray and Graham Gibbons in awesome
form, with respective strike rates of 60% and 50%,
though they tie on three wins apiece, with fellow
riders Andrea Atzeni and Joe Fanning. Godolphin's
Charlie Appleby is the top dog among the trainers,
with four winners and a 66.67% strike rate.
The first race at Doncaster (2.00) is the Listed
Doncaster Mile, in which the Andrew Balding-
trained Tullius should have a chance on official
figures, having gone close in Group 1 races last
season. He goes well fresh and the expected good
ground should be fine. Also, Balding's team are in
fine form at the moment, with a 36% strike rate in
the past fortnight. Kevin Ryan's Glory Awaits also
deserves consideration, having won a Group 2 at
the end of last season, and had won a Listed race
earlier in the campaign. The 2.35 is the Listed
Cammidge Trophy in which Kevin Ryan's Astaire
should have a chance, given that he is dropping
substantially in class and has won four of his nine
starts (44%) over distance. Jim Goldie's Jack
Dexter won this race two years ago and like
Astaire, will not carry a penalty in this race. He
could go close according to his best form.
Doncaster's Spring Mile at 3.10 is for horses who
don't make the cut for the Lincoln, and four of the
last seven winners have been top-weight or second
top-weight. On that basis, trainer Martin Smith's
Hillbilly Boy is interesting as a winning miler who
ran well in defeat on the all-weather last month.
That run should have blown a few cobwebs away.
As a less-exposed type, Willie Haggas' Mange All
catches the eye as one who has won over a mile,
but also stays further, which could help in a race
which will probably be run at an end-to-end gallop.
Haggas also has a good winning record in the
longer term at Doncaster (fourth most winning
trainer at the course since 2010, of those with
entrants in this race).
The 3.45 is Doncaster's feature race, the Lincoln,
a heritage handicap over 1m. David O'Meara's
Penitent is getting on, but he catches the eye on
his return to handicap company from Group and
conditions races for the first time since winning
this race five years ago. John Gosden has trained
a winner of this race in the last 10 years and his
entrant Gm Hopkins has a progressive profile; he
is unbeaten in two starts over distance and is two
from four on good ground. Also, Gosden has the
second-best winning record at the course of those
trainers with entrants in this race.
At Kempton, the Listed Magnolia Stakes (2.15)
looks a good opportunity for John Gosden's
Romsdal, who ran well in top-class races last year
and Gosden has the best course record of those
trainers with possible runners in this race. James
Tate (50% wins last 14 days) has an intriguing
possible improver in Lamar, who ran well over this
distance last time and is two from five on the all-
weather. The 2.50 is the Rosebery Handicap, over
1m 3f. Marco Botti's Latin Charm looks one on the
upgrade and has course form, while Charlie
Appleby's New Year's Night has a similar profile,
underpinned by some solid all-weather form. The
6f handicap at 3.25 looks an interesting race in
which James Fanshawe's classy mare Hallelujah
could go well. She went close on the all-weather at
Lingfield in a Listed race and Fanshawe has an
excellent record at Kempton (most wins, 23%
strike rate) since 2010. David Simcock's Related
has a pull at the weights with some, is less
exposed than some and has won on the going and
at this course.
=================================================


RACE RATING.

2.15 Kempton - Saturday, 28 March
888Sport Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) 1m2f



12372- Romsdal 196 4 John Gosden
Progressive son of Halling who built on his
third in the Derby when a close second in the
St Leger. This race could mark his seasonal
debut, but he looks the one to beat on his
form to date and may be capable of further
improvement.
RATING 100
35-630 Afonso De Sousa 14 5 David O ́Meara
Has moved to David O'Meara from Aidan
O'Brien since last season, and while his new
trainer has a reputation for rejuvenating cast-
offs, Afonso De Sousa was held with no
apparent excuses in the Winter Derby two
weeks ago. Slight drop in class for this race, but
looks up against it. RATING 92
02-080 Aussie Reigns 30 5 William Knight
Also entered in the Rosebery Handicap, which
may be a better option as Aussie Reigns has
run well without looking a threat in conditions
races in the past year. Third in last year's Winter
Derby and fourth to Pether's Moon in a Group
3 at Glorious Goodwood among his best bits of
form, but recent form in Dubai leaves him with
work to do in this company. RATING 94
5156-2 Baltic Knight 31 5 Richard Hannon
A winner at this level over 7f and ran well in
similar races over 1m. Won a turf handicap at
backend of last season, but has disappointed
over this distance and at this course in latest
outings. Stable in good form and horse has
ability, but not the most convincing profile.
RATING 95
60-134 Belgian Bill 30 7 George Baker
Ran very well in defeat in some top handicaps
last season, including when fifth in the Betfred
Mile at Glorious Goodwood. Was freshened up
with a short break over the winter and won and
went close in three starts in Dubai earlier this
year. Should go well, but probably more
exposed than some rivals. RATING 97
24-112 Lamar 35 4 James Tate
Improving son of Cape Cross who was narrowly
beaten in a Listed race over distance on the all-
weather last time by a fair benchmark. That
was his first time over 10f and no surprise to
see him go well again in this race. RATING 98
052850 Ocean Tempest 21 6 John Ryan
Last year's Lincoln winner who is entered in
that race again on Saturday, so may not run in
this race. Has winning form on soft ground over
1m, so has a chance of staying 10f around
Kempton on the all-weather, and a looks a
potential winner on official ratings. RATING 99
63-772 Rebellious Guest 24 6 George Margarson
Ran well when a fair second to the improving
Tryster over course and distance, earlier this
month. That's respectable form but still leaves
him needing to find some improvement within
the context of this race. RATING 95
0160-6 Red Avenger 14 5 Ed Dunlop
Has yet to race in conditions races but best
handicap form of last season (in some decent
races) was achieved over 1m. Won a three-
runner race over 10f two seasons ago, so may
stay the distance, but could be up against it,
given that he’s facing classier opposition in this
race. RATING 96
78226- Red Galileo 154 4 Ed Dunlop
Ran well in defeat at a high-level last season,
the highpoint of which was a fifth place in the
Epsom Derby. Probably ran to a similar level
when second to a consistent winner in a Listed
race at Doncaster last September, over 1m 4f.
Could be an each-way prospect if fit enough on
his seasonal debut. RATING 97
2-2423 Solar Deity 21 6 Marco Botti
Consistent son of Exceed And Excel who has
had a busy campaign over the winter,
which may give him a fitness advantage over a
few, and has looked in need of a step up in
trip, having been outpaced over 1m. Should
be thereabouts, but is exposed and may
be vulnerable to some likely improvers.
RATING 97
================================================

NOTEBOOK.



The Tom George team haven't been in their
usual winning form lately, which adds credibility
to the merit of George's charge
STORMING
STRUMPET
, who finished second in a mares'
novices' hurdle at Taunton on Monday.
A five-year-old daughter of Kayf Tara, Storming
Strumpet won a 1m 6f bumper at Fontwell last
October, which encouraged connections to try
her in the Listed mares' bumper at Cheltenham
the following month. Though held when
finishing in the midfield in that race, after a
break over the winter, Storming Strumpet
returned to action with a solid second in a
mares' novices' hurdle at Exeter last month,
staying on in the soft ground without looking a
real threat to the more experienced winner,
who had already won over hurdles by that point.
Given her performance, it was logical that
connections should try Storming Strumpet over
further for this latest outing (2m 3f), and the
better ground probably helped too. As before,
she was doing her best work at the end, so she
might stay 2m 4f or further, and she looks
capable of winning a small hurdle race,
probably against her own sex.
In the 2m 6f novices' hurdle at Wincanton,
the third and fourth-placed horses both ran
improved races to suggest they could win
over hurdles before surely going chasing at
some point in the future. The third-placed
MARDEN COURT
is trained by Colin Tizzard,
and this race represented his best effort over
hurdles by some margin, having finished well
beaten in his two previous starts over timber.
He was staying on at the end and finished
just over eight lengths clear behind the
winner (officially rated 138) and the second
(officially rated 135), and he could be one to
watch out for in 3m handicap hurdles.
Similar comments apply to the fourth-placed
IMAGINE THE CHAT
, trained by Rebecca Curtis.
The five-year-old Kayf Tara gelding won a 2m
Ffos Las bumper last season, on his racing
debut, but after being well beaten on his
second start, in a Listed bumper at Newbury,
he rested until reappearing in a 2m 4f maiden
hurdle at Chepstow. He looked in need of the
experience there and wasn't given a hard time
when it was clear he wasn't going to be
involved. The form of that race has worked out
fairly well and he looked a little outpaced in this
race, but stepped up on his previous run and
should have options in staying handicap
hurdles, if not making his mark in novices' or
maiden hurdles beforehand.
===============================================


NEWS.


A fall at a race meeting at Downpatrick last
Sunday has left leading jockey Barry
Geraghty with a broken left tibia, and the
prospect of missing the Aintree Grand
National on 11 April. Geraghty would
potentially have ridden Nicky Henderson's
Hadrian’s Approach or the fancied The
Druid's Nephew. It is expected that
Geraghty will be on the sidelines for
between four and eight weeks, which
means he will miss the Irish Grand National
at Fairyhouse and possibly the
Punchestown Festival.
Irish trainer Dermot Weld is waiting until later
this week before deciding whether Stuccador
will race in the Lincoln at Doncaster this
Saturday, or the Irish Lincolnshire the
following day. Stuccador, who won the Irish
Lincolnshire last year, is currently priced at
20/1 for the Doncaster race, but Weld
cautioned that he would only run Stuccador
where the ground was soft, so the weather
this week would be the deciding factor.
Paul Nicholls' Grand National team may
have gained another member after Rebel
Rebellion won under top-weight at Newbury
last Saturday. Nicholls had considered
Rebel Rebellion for the Topham Chase, but
as the chaser has struck up a fruitful
partnership with conditional rider Jack
Sherwood, Nicholls is keen to keep the rider
on board, who isn't eligible to ride in the
Topham. Nicholls's Aintree Grand National
team also includes Rocky Creek and
Unioniste.
Trainer Oliver Sherwood is debating whether
to run his Hennessey Gold Cup winner, Many
Clouds, in the Aintree Grand National, saying
the decision is "50-50". Sherwood believes
that Many Clouds didn't run his race in the
Cheltenham Gold Cup earlier this month, but
says that could be due to the fact he has had
enough for the season, as much as it could
be because of the way the race was dictated
by the front-running winner, Coneygree.
Coneygree's elder half-brother Carruthers
wound back the years to record a
memorable victory in the valuable 3m 2f
handicap chase at Newbury last Saturday.
Ridden by Nico de Boinville, the win came
just eight days after Coneygree's romp in
the Cheltenham Gold Cup and provided
trainer Mark Bradstock with only his third
individual winner from nine runners this
season.
After sustaining a tendon injury on his latest
run, the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Hunter's
Light has been retired to stud and will not
race at the Dubai World Cup meeting this
Saturday night. The seven-year-old son of
Dubawi won three Group 1 races among a
total of 12 wins from 27 starts.
Retiring champion jockey Tony McCoy has
said that he will probably retire immediately
should he win the Aintree Grand National
next month. McCoy, who won the race at
the fifteenth attempt on Don't Push It in
2010, is expected to ride the Jonjo O'Neill-
trained favourite, Shutthefrontdoor,
although the possibility of partnering the
Gordon Elliott-trained Cause Of Causes
hasn't been ruled out.
Although Rock On Ruby missed the Cheltenham
Festival, his trainer Harry Fry says that the
former champion hurdler is on course to run in
the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle next month. Rock
On Ruby had been set to run in the Grade 1
Ladbroke World Hurdle until his participation
was ruled out by a dirty scope and Fry hopes
that the 10-year-old son of Oscar will improve
on his previous narrow defeats in the Aintree
Hurdle, having been third and then second in
the race in the last two years.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


This Saturday's Channel 4-televised racing action
centres around Flat and Jumps meetings, at
Haydock (2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45) and
Kempton (2.15, 2.50 and 3.25). Last Saturday,
the stats led us to three winners and, hopefully,
a glance at the general form for both codes will
prove helpful.
In the week ending Monday, 30 March, leading
Flat jockey by wins and very nearly by strike rate
is Adam Kirby (6 wins/30%), ahead of several
jockeys on 4 wins each, including Freddie Tylicki
and Tony Hamilton, who has the best strike rate
(33%). Top Flat trainer is Richard Fahey, with 6
wins, just ahead of Mark Johnston (5 wins), with
the latter's 29% strike rate just giving him the
edge (Fahey 24%). Over Jumps, the top jockey is
Tom Scudamore, whose 5 wins and 33% strike
rate bettered the 4 wins and 25% strike rate of
next-best Sam Twiston-Davies. The in-form Jumps
trainer is Nicky Henderson, who trained 5
winners in period from just 9 runners, giving him
a superb 56% strike rate. This was bettered by
the 3 from 4 (75%) of Neil Mulholland, though,
while Paul Nicholls saddled 4 winners.
The first televised race at Haydock (2.00) is the
3m 4f handicap chase, in which trainer Alan King
has an unexposed and possible improver in Ziga
Boy, who looked in need of further last time. King
has the fourth-best record by wins at this course
since 2010, of those trainers with entrants in this
race. The trainer with the best record is Donald
McCain, whose charge Beeves won last time and
only went up 2lb. Beeves has winning form on the
soft ground. The 2.35 is a 2m 4f Class 2
handicap hurdle in which Brian Ellison's entrant
Powerstown Dreams should be considered, given
that the trainer has saddled the winner of this
race twice in the last three years and his entrant
has a useful pull at the weights with Raktiman.
Alan King's Hindon Road has winning form over
distance and on the ground and is interesting on
this drop back in trip, having failed to stay 3m last
time.
The 3m handicap chase at 3.10 looks a fair
opportunity for Emma Lavelle's Fox Appeal.
Though carrying top-weight, Fox Appeal has won
several times on the ground and over distance,
and Lavelle has an excellent 33% strike rate at
the course. Trainer Ann Hamilton's Runswick
Royal won his first start over 3m at Kelso last
time and is unexposed over distance. He has also
won at this course before and is 3 from 8 (37.5%)
on the ground. In the 3.45, a 2m 6f handicap
chase, Future Gilded could enhance trainer Jamie
Snowden's super 30% strike rate (last 14 days),
and is 2 from 2 on soft ground. He has only had
four starts to date and won his last going away,
suggesting there could be more to come. Another
possible improver is Comeonginger who is 2 from
5, or 40%, on the expected ground.
At Kempton, the 2.15, a Class 2 7f handicap, in
which the Richard Hannon-trained Ninjago, who
is unbeaten in two starts on the going and at the
course, catches the eye on his return to handicap
company, just seven days after winning a 7f
conditions race. The Ralph Beckett team are in
very good form (27% last 14 days) and the
unexposed Mr Bossy Boots, who has won 3 times
on the going and 3 times over distance, could go
well. The 2.50 is the Listed fillies' race, and Marc
Botti's Lady Dutch, who has winning form on the
ground, distance and course, could be the one to
beat. Botti has the third-best winning record at
this course since 2010 of those trainers with
entrants in this race. At 3.25, the 1m handicap
looks a fair opportunity for John Gosden's Made
With Love to attempt to build on his maiden win
last time. Gosden has a great 30% strike rate for
the past 14 days. Kevin Ryan's Realize is
interesting on this possible step up in trip, having
been staying on well over 7f, and is 5 from 11
(45%) on the going.

========================================
RACE RATING.

2.50 Kempton - Saturday, 4 April
Betfred Mobile Snowdrop Fillies ́ Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) 1m


3828- Capelita 150 4 Clive Brittain
Though this Cape Cross filly has plenty of
stamina in her pedigree, her form in four
starts to date, all last season, suggests she
may be more of a 6f/7f horse and has a lot to
find with the likely market leaders in terms of
official ratings. RATING 90
11-116 Don ́t Be 28 5 Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Progressive Cape Cross mare who has made
hay in all-weather handicaps over the winter,
but also improved last time, when upped in
class to Listed company, finishing an unlucky,
running-on fifth over7f. Could go well at a nice
price. RATING 97
24165- Evita Peron 205 4 Ralph Beckett
Trainer is in good form and has an excellent
record at this course over the past five
seasons. This daughter of Pivotal is a half-
sister to five winners, including the smart
Equiano. Best form of last year, when fourth
in the Group 2 German 1,000 Guineas, a
Listed winner over 7f on soft ground and her
narrow defeat in a Group 3 at Doncaster,
augurs well for her prospects in this race.
RATING 98
74644- Nakuti 135 4 Sylvester Kirk
Progressive daughter of Mastercraftsman who
finished fourth twice from three starts in
Listed races at the backend of last season,
but is probably a little exposed compared to
some and has plenty to find with the best of
her rivals. RATING 94
02569- Queen Catrine 182 4 Charles Hills
Held by Nakuti (6th) in the Listed October
Stakes at Ascot last season, but that may have
been as she was tailing off after a busy
season, during which her finest hour came
when second in the Listed Sandringham
Stakes at Royal Ascot. That was her best run
to date, but as her juvenile form the previous
season had been more consistent, she
probably has something to prove in this race,
first time out. RATING 95
7127- Royal Memory 248 4 Hugo Palmer
Has joined up-and-coming trainer after a
campaign with John Oxx last season. Though
by Invincible Spirit, she has a middle-distance
pedigree, but won over 8f last season, and
then finished second to a progressive winner.
Has place claims on this step up in company,
though it may pay to watch for any signs of
market confidence. RATING 94
81218- Saucy Minx 156 5 Amanda Perrett
Daughter of Dylan Thomas who came into her
own in the second-half of last season, winning
twice and finishing second to a useful winner
in a Class 2 handicap. Connections probably
trying to get some black type in this race, with
one eye on a future breeding career, but
despite improved form last season, Saucy Minx
looks up against it in this race. RATING 93
213-51 Semaral 31 4 Chris Wall
High Chaparral filly who has come on in leaps
and bounds since dropping back in trip to 1m,
on the all-weather, over the winter. That said,
despite her upward curve, she's someway
short of the best of her rivals in this race and
would only have small place claims if
improving by 5-10lb. RATING 92
0338-1 Lady Dutch 38 4 Marco Botti
By Dutch Art, out of a Montjeu mare, this
new recruit for Marco Botti's in-form yard
made the right impression when winning
a conditions race on her stable debut last
time, over course and distance. She was
third in the Italian 1,000 Guineas
previously, a race which may have been no
stronger than this one, but she still looks
one to keep on side.
RATING 100
4316- Solar Magic 238 4 John Gosden
Trainer has team in great form at the moment
and has a fine record for saddling winners at
this course over the past five seasons. Solar
Magic, a daughter of Pivotal, disappointed
when tried at this level on latest start, last
August. Her previous form, coupled to the fact
that she has only raced four times to date, is
promising though, and no surprise if she was
to run well here. RATING 99
16-4 Tea Blossom 38 4 James Eustace
Raced twice in France for her previous
connections, but made a solid British debut
when a four-length fourth behind Lady Dutch
in a conditions race in February. Was given an
official rating of 97 on the back of that, and is
one of the more interesting candidates in this
race. RATING 97
254-44 Victoria Regina 44 4 David Simcock
Formerly trained in France and joined
Simcock's team over the winter, running OK in
two Group 2 races over 1m and 1m 1f. Drop
in class for this race should help, and has won
over distance, but others make a slightly more
persuasive argument. RATING 96
775-80 Wee Jean 58 4 Mick Channon
Posted a career-best when a two-length fifth
in the Group 1 Matron Stakes last season,
having gone well in 1m handicaps over the
summer. Held by Victoria Regina on form in
Meydan earlier this year and, while not totally
discounted from a win perspective, looks
more of an each-way proposition. RATING 98
=============================================


NOTEBOOK.

Though the 2m 4f novices' hurdle at
Chepstow's meeting last Monday wasn't an
ultra-competitive race, the Jonjo O'Neill-
trained
TODAY PLEASE
improved sufficiently
on his racing and hurdling debut the time
before to suggest that he could be one to
watch out for in handicap hurdles before going
chasing at some point.
By Westerner out of an Acatenango mare, the
2m 4f trips that Today Please has been
running over are logical, though he may just
come into his own over 3m at some point.
Another improver to watch out for in
handicaps is the George Baker-trained
DESTINY'S GOLD
, who is now qualified for
those races after finishing third on his third
start over hurdles. Also, time may prove that
the 2m trip around a speed track like
Kempton could have been on the sharp side.
By Millenary and out of a Roselier mare,
Destiny's Gold is stoutly bred and he should
stay further than 2m.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


This week's Grand National is often
considered a lottery, but there are
some statistics that might help in
finding the winner of the world's
richest steeplechase.
The last time a seven year old won the
race was 75 years ago (Bogskar won
the National at the age of seven in
1940) and you have to go back a
further 28 years (to 1915) to find the
last winning six year old, Ally Sloper.
Not only have horses aged under 8 not
won for many years, they also have a
shocking completion record since
1992, with only 6 of the 40
contenders getting round.
The record of eight-year-olds is not great
either, with just one winner (Bindaree in
2002) in recent years. A horse needs
experience and maturity to cope with
such a tough race and horses aged ten
and over are the ones to look out for.
French horses don't have the best
record in the race, although Mon
Mome and Neptune Collonges have
been successful in the last seven
years. Horses bred in Ireland have a
decent record and should remain on
the shortlist.
Horses that have not won over three
miles or beyond should not be
considered - although it seems
obvious, many horses with a lack of
proven stamina line up for the Grand
National and none ever excel.
Regarding weight, only Red Rum has
carried more than 11st 5lb to victory.
Phil Smith, the Grand National
handicapper, has altered the way the
weights are now put together, so this
might not be as influential as it once
was, but certainly for the moment,
horses carrying more than 11st 5lb
are at a distinct disadvantage.
Horses that have not seen a
racecourse for more than fifty days
before the Grand National do not
usually excel. Fitness and experience
is key, so look for horses that have
had a run in recent weeks (although
Cheltenham Festival winners have a
poor record in the National).
Former winners also have a terrible
record, so that probably rules out
PINEAU DE RE
.
Looking at the various statistics on
offer, the horse who stands out is the
Mouse Morris-trained
FIRST
LIEUTENANT
===========================================


RACE RATING.

2.05 Aintree - Saturday, 11 April
Doom Bar Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m CH4


273-P1 Art Mauresque 5 Paul Nicholls
Winner of a handicap at Kempton last time, off
a mark of 135, but that leaves him with plenty
to find here. Highly regarded and lightly raced
but probably not good enough. RATING: 90
112128 Clarcam 5 Gordon Elliott
Decent form in Ireland, including a Grade 1
win at Leopardstown in December. Well
beaten by Un De Sceaux the next time and
looked outclassed in the Arkle at Cheltenham.
He has plenty to prove now. RATING: 92
2-1145 Court Minstrel 8 Evan Williams
An impressive winner at Cheltenham in
October, but hasn't enjoyed the soft ground
this winter. The ground wasn't to blame at
Cheltenham last month and this looks like
another tough assignment. RATING: 92
F-1F22 Duke Of Navan 7 Nicky Richards
A useful hurdler who hasn't looked the most
natural over the larger obstacles. Fell at
Cheltenham in November on heavy ground, but
has run respectably in lesser grade since. Probably
not good enough to feature here. RATING: 91
11732 God's Own 7 Tom George
A very good second in the Arkle, where he
benefitted from a patient ride behind the
runaway winner. Won the Haldon Gold Cup at
Exeter in November, but underperformed in
the Tingle Creek and behind Vibrato Valtat at
Kempton over Christmas. Appreciated the
better ground at Cheltenham and should go
well again. RATING: 99
1-2123 Josses Hill 7 Nicky Henderson
A very useful hurdler who won at this meeting
last season in the Grade 2 novice hurdle.
Probably not the most natural over a fence, but
came good at Cheltenham when third in the
Arkle. That will have done his confidence a lot
of good and he should run well. RATING: 97
91U11 Sizing Granite 7 Henry De Bromhead
An interesting runner from Ireland who got his
head in front at Leopardstown at the end of
February. Missed the Cheltenham Festival but
he has the potential to be pretty smart. He will
appreciate good ground and could be a solid
each-way contender. RATING: 95
212P22 Solar Impulse 5 Paul Nicholls
A solid jumper who recorded a decent win at
Wetherby back in November in good style.
Second to Josses Hill at Doncaster at the
beginning of January and three weeks later he
was second to Three Kingdoms at the same
venue. He hasn't run for two months, but
comes here fresh. RATING: 94
811237 Ted Veale 8 A J Martin
A Grade 3 winner at Roscommon at the
beginning of the season, this likeable horse
has performed with credit over fences and
hurdles this term. Well beaten in the Grand
Annual at Cheltenham last month, he will find
this just as tough. RATING: 93
11219 Three Kingdoms 6 John Ferguson
Won at Leicester and Newcastle earlier in the
season but was put in his place by Vibrato
Valtat at Kempton in December. Disappointed
at Cheltenham and could be outclassed again
here. RATING: 96
714211 Traffic Fluide 5 Gary Moore
A winner at Plumpton and Sandown most
recently, this good-looking French-bred has
plenty of talent. Not as much experience as
some of these, but an interesting contender.
RATING: 94
1-F111 Un De Sceaux 7 W P Mullins
Unbeaten, bar for a fall on his chasing
debut, Un De Sceaux was mightily
impressive at Cheltenham and the result
never looked in doubt. Not the biggest
horse in the world, his jumping is not
completely trustworthy, but by far the most
talented if he stands up.
RATING: 100
121114 Vibrato Valtat 6 Paul Nicholls
This horse has excelled since being sent
chasing and has a near-flawless record. A dual
Grade 2 winner and Grade 1 winner this term,
he was fourth in the Arkle when paying the
price for chasing Un De Sceaux early on. More
likely to run in the two and a half mile race on
Thursday. RATING: 99


. ========================================


NOTEBOOK.

121114 Vibrato Valtat 6 Paul Nicholls
This horse has excelled since being sent
chasing and has a near-flawless record. A dual
Grade 2 winner and Grade 1 winner this term,
he was fourth in the Arkle when paying the
price for chasing Un De Sceaux early on. More
likely to run in the two and a half mile race on
Thursday. RATING: 99
15
Sat 11 Apr - Fri 17 April 2015
SATURDAY 6 CLUB
There was plenty of excellent racing over the
Easter weekend and the All-Weather
Championships at Lingfield provided some
excellent entertainment and clues to future
winners once the turf season starts properly
later this month.
The first race on the card was a conditions
race for fillies over seven furlongs and
although the French winner, Fresles, was very
impressive, the performance of the Sir Mark
Prescott-trained
DON'T BE
was equally as eye-
catching. A daughter of the excellent sire,
Cape Cross, Don't Be has been a typical Sir
Mark Prescott improver over the last few
months and having started her handicap
career off a mark of 72, she is now rated 96
and is sure to creep higher as the season
progresses. Don't Be's form looks much
stronger on the all-weather, but she hasn't had
many chances on the turf and she can make
amends this summer when stepping up to a
mile.
Karl Burke's
RIVELLINO
finished seventh and
well beaten in the top sprint race on the card,
but he is much better than his finishing
position suggests. He was drawn widest of all
and didn't enjoy a clear run throughout the
race and he can turn the form around with
most of those ahead of him when he returns
to the turf.
In the mile championship for three-year-olds,
EMIRATES SKYCARGO
caught the eye. A good
looking son of Iffraaj, this colt was caught
wide on the bend and after being held up, he
could never get in a serious blow. He remains
open to further progress and could be one to
keep an eye on this season.
The mile championship race was a tactical affair
won by Grey Mirage, but it was the performance
of the runner-up,
SOVEREIGN DEBT
, that caught
the eye. He didn't have any luck in running and
he was probably the best horse on the day. He
raced further back than ideal but showed an
excellent turn of foot, albeit too late. He should
be a pattern race performer on this evidence
and appreciates some cut in the ground.
Gay Kelleway's Lightscameraction was
rejuvenated by the first-time blinkers in the
sprint for three-year-olds, but the runner up,
BLUE AEGEAN
, showed that she possesses
bags of speed and she will be suited to a
sharp 5 furlongs. A track like Chester could
suit her well.
The marathon at the end of the card saw
another falsely-run race and some credit must
go to the third-placed
HIDDEN GOLD
. A
thorough stayer, Hidden Gold can get his head
in front when contesting a more truly run race
this spring.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
The featured race in last week's column, the Grand
National, proved typically unpredictable, with none of
the first four home priced shorter than 20/1! Though
we drew a blank with our selections, we hope to get
back on track this Saturday, focusing on the Channel
4-televised races from Ayr (2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and
3.45) and Newbury (1.45, 2.15, 2.50 and 3.25).
With Flat and Jumps action to focus on, a look at the
general run of form under both codes in the past
week (to Monday, 13 April) may prove helpful. Of the
Flat jockeys, Paul Hanagan came out on top with 7
wins and a great 36% strike rate, ahead of James
Doyle (5 wins/41%) and George Baker (5 wins/33%).
Richard Fahey won more races than any other British-
based Flat trainer in the same time frame, with 6
winners and a 40% strike rate, ahead of John Best
(3 wins/50%). Top Jump jockey was Brian Hughes,
who rode 4 winners and chalked up a 28% strike
rate. Of the Jump trainers, Nicky Henderson led the
way, with 5 winners, though his good 17% strike rate
was surpassed by the 25% of Philip Hobbs, who
saddled 4 winners in the same period.
Turning to the televised races from Ayr, the 2.00 is a
Grade 2 novices' chase in which Oliver Sherwood's
(22% wins last 14 days) Puffin Billy has claims on his
winning form in races around the 2m 4f distance this
season and has won twice on the expected good-soft
ground. Fellow trainer Richard Lee's horses have also
been running well (22%) and his well-regarded
charge Top Gamble may improve for the step up in
trip, having been staying on well over 2m so far this
season. The 2.35 is the Scottish Champion Hurdle,
a limited handicap over 2m. At long odds, Donald
McCain's Cinders And Ashes could be thrown in at
the weights on the pick of his old form, and he ran a
good race under top-weight two starts ago. He was
carried out last time, very early on, and could go well
at a price. One who should enjoy the conditions is
Richard Lee's Gassin Golf, who won on this ground
last time and is on an upward curve.
The 3.10 at Ayr is a Listed handicap chase over 2m, in
which Pauline Robson's Upsilon Bleu looks interesting
on this drop back in trip to 2m, which he won over
earlier in the season. He didn't quite see out 2m 7f
last time, so returning to this distance is logical. He
also has winning form on the ground, while the Brian
Ellison-trained Yorkist arguably prefers softer ground,
but catches the eye thanks to 4 wins over the distance
and is feasibly rated according to the pick of his form
this season. The feature race of Ayr's meeting is of
course the Scottish Grand National (3.45), in which
only 1 of the past 10 winners has carried more than
11st. Lucinda Russell has the leading course record
by wins (33) over the past five seasons, of those
trainers with entrants in this race, and given the weight
her entrant Lie Forrit is set to carry, he could have a
chance, having won the Grand National trial at
Haydock earlier in the season. Paul Nicholls has a few
entrants, including Benvolio, who disappointed last
time at Haydock, when pulled up behind Lie Forrit, but
is interesting on his form when a close second in the
Welsh National, and has a pull at the weights with Lie
Forrit. Another with a potentially useful advantage over
Lie Forrit at the weights could be Venetia Williams'
Summery Justice, who was a clear second in the Eider
Chase two starts ago and unseated at a fairly early
stage last time, in the Midlands National.
At Newbury, the 1.45 is the Group 3 John Porter Stakes,
over 1m4f. Expect John Gosden's (29%) top-rated
Romsdal to take the beating, with Richard Hannon's
Windshear, a winner over distance, the likely main
opponent. The 2.15 is the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes,
over 7f, a trial for 1,000 Guineas hopefuls. Richard
Hannon's popular filly Tiggy Wiggy has the best form to
date (2 from 3 on good ground) and should be
thereabouts if in the same form this season, while David
Simcock's Terror is less exposed and open to more
improvement. The 2.50 is the Greenham Stakes, a trial
race for the 2,000 Guineas, which the Hannon team
have won 4 times in the past 10 years. Their main hopes
looks to be Ivawood (won on ground) and Estidhkaad,
while Roger Varian's (£59 per £1 level-stake profit at the
course since 2010) Belardo is the best according to
official ratings. The last of the televised races is the
Spring Cup (3.25), in which Tommy Stack's Irish raider
Onenightidreamed looks open to further improvement,
despite rising 10lb in the handicap for winning the Irish
Lincolnshire on his previous start. Another potential
improver is Roger Charlton's Elemraan, who ran three
times in France last year, and won his only start over 1m.
Charlton has trained a winner of this race in recent years.

========================================================


RACE RATING. 2.50 NEWBURY.


14141- Belardo 183 3 Roger Varian
A half-brother to two black type performers,
including the classy middle-distance horse,
Berling. Showed best form on ground with cut
in it last season, including when winning the
Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes from Smuggler's
Cove (third) and Estidhkaar (fourth). The one
to beat on official ratings, assuming his
patient trainer has him fully wound-up for this
race, which is his stepping stone to the
Guineas and possibly the Derby. RATING 99
6511- Code Red 175 3 William Muir
Progressive son of Bahamian Bounty, who is
out of a Montjeu mare and should stay further
than the 6f he has been winning over so far.
Two wins on last two starts of 2014 included
a Listed win at Doncaster, where he beat a
15lb higher-rated runner-up, at level-weights,
by ¾ length. Held in some regard by
connections, but still has a fair bit to find with
leading rivals. RATING 95
21311- Dick Whittington 251 3 A P O ́Brien
Had a busy campaign last year, but
progressed from the summer onwards,
placing third in the Chesham Stakes before
dropping back to 6f and winning a Group 3 at
The Curragh. The runner-up was then second
to Gleneagles in the Group 1 National Stakes
next time and Dick Whittington went on to win
the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes next time, over 6f
on soft ground. That would suggest he may
have the stamina to see out 7f on the better
ground expected for this race. Respected.
RATING 97
21114- Estidhkaar 183 3 Richard Hannon
Recorded back-to-back wins in the Group 2
Superlative Stakes and the Group 2
Champagne Stakes, beating Belardo by more
than two lengths, despite giving the latter 3lb.
Return to better ground should suit and no
surprise to see him go well, given stable's
great record in this race in last 10 years.
RATING 98
11- Fannaan 178 3 John Gosden
Unbeaten and unexposed son of
Speightstown who won his maiden and then
landed a Newmarket conditions race on his
second start. Beat a fair runner-up in the latter
race who had finished a three-length second
to Belardo the time before. Held on that basis,
but should be open to more improvement
than Belardo and is expected to come into his
own this season, according to connections
who know the time of day. RATING 96
1- Flaming Spear 280 3 Kevin Ryan
A once-raced winner of a 6f York maiden last
summer, beating a field including four
subsequent maiden winners. Cost 260,000
guineas as a two-year-old and from a family
with plenty of winners. No shortage of pace in
pedigree, and stayed on well when winning at
York, so could go well at a price. RATING 94
525-1 Hail The Hero 20 3 David O ́Meara
Won a maiden on his fourth career start and
first of this season, when winning over 7f at
Doncaster's Lincoln meeting. Formerly with
Aidan O'Brien, but now with the shrewd David
O'Meara, so has claims for further
improvement, but does have a lot to find with
some of his fellow entrants in this race.
RATING 92
The following horses were entered for this race but many may not run. The runner with the highest rating will be the selection
of our team.
Race Ratings
2.50 Newbury - Saturday, 18 April
Aon Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) 7f
1112- Ivawood 183 3 Richard Hannon
Son of Zebedee who won two 6f Group 2
races nicely last season, staying on well at
the close of each race. Built on that form
when narrowly defeated on final start of
the season, when a close second in the
Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, but unsuited
by the soft ground that day. On that basis,
better ground expected today should help
his cause.
RATING 100
13313- Muhaarar 183 3 Charles Hills
Won the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes last
season, but held by Ivawood on two bits of
form, including when beaten by that horse in
the July Stakes, and also when third to
Ivawood (second) in the Middle Park Stakes.
Could improve again, but no obvious reason
why he should turn the tables with Ivawood.
RATING 97
5113- Smuggler ́s Cove 183 3 A P O ́Brien
Was beaten more than four lengths by Belardo
when third in the Dewhurst, having weakened
inside the final furlong. However, that run
came just seven days after winning a Listed
race in Ireland, the ground was softer than
previously encountered and he was stepping
up in class, so it's unclear whether any one or
more of those three factors contributed to his
defeat. From a major stable, but others have
more convincing claims in this race.
RATING 94
31221- Toocoolforschool 210 3 K R Burke
Made all to win the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes
going away on final start of last season, on
soft ground. Also had decent winning and
placed form in lesser races on quicker ground
so should handle today's conditions, and
probably has a chance of making the places,
if lacking the better winning prospects of
fellow entrants. RATING 96
========================================


NOTEBOOK.


Though already a dual bumper winner from
three starts in that sphere, the Rose Dobbin-
trained
PROFESSOR PLUM
was still showing
some signs of greenness when runner-up on
his fourth career start, and first over hurdles,
in a 2m 2f novices' hurdle at Kelso this week.
The winner may have won by six lengths, but
that horse had the benefit of the experience
of six previous runs over hurdles. As one with
plenty of stamina in his pedigree, Professor
Plum may just need a bit further as well, but
as he finished 18 lengths clear of the third,
this was a satisfactory start over hurdles and
the experience of this race should help him to
unlock more potential in his future races.
Another who looked in need of the experience
was the Mark Johnston-trained
BEAVERBROOK
was who was very green on
his racing debut in a 5f juvenile maiden at
Windsor on Monday evening. The two-year-old
Cape Cross colt was slowly away and looked
very green. His dam won over 1m and it will
be no surprise to see him stepping up in trip
in due course, but in the meantime, he should
have learned plenty from this first run.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Last week's column yielded a sole but nice 3/1
winner last Saturday, through Top Gamble's
success in the Grade 2 novices' chase at Ayr. We
hope for a few more successes this weekend, in the
televised races from Haydock (2.20), Ripon (1.45)
and Sandown (2.00, 2.35, 3.15 and 3.50), all of
which are scheduled to be shown on Channel 4.
With Flat and Jumps meetings to sift through on
Saturday, a glance at the general form under both
codes may prove helpful. The form jockey on the
Flat is Frankie Dettori, with the former champion
having ridden 6 winners and chalked up a great
37.5% strike rate (in the week ending Monday, 20
April), clear of several jockeys who each rode 4
winners, though, of those, it was Pat Dobbs who
did it from the fewest rides (33%). Top Flat trainer
was Richard Fahey, with 8 wins and a 28% strike
rate, ahead of John Gosden and David O'Meara,
who each saddled 5 winners and chalked up a
22.73% strike rate. Over Jumps, Dan Skelton is the
top trainer, with 7 winners and a 37% strike rate,
clear of next-best Nicky Henderson and Rebecca
Curtis, who each trained 4 winners. However,
Curtis' week was exceptional, as her 4 winners
came from just 5 runners, equating to a fabulous
80% strike rate. Top Jump jockey was Paddy
Brennan, who like several others, rode 5 winners
in period, but had the best strike rate of 45%,
ahead of Tom Cannon (33%).
The majority of the Channel 4-televised action this
Saturday comes from Sandown. The 2.00 is a 2m
juvenile handicap hurdle in which Paul Nicholls'
progressive Fred Winter winner, Qualando, could go
well again and defy an 8lb rise in the handicap.
Qualando is top-weight, but Nicholls won the race
with a top-weight charge two years ago, Ptit Zig.
Qualando has won over distance and is unbeaten
in one start on the expected good ground. Another
who's improving and could go well is Sternrubin.
He's less exposed than some and his trainer, Philip
Hobbs, is in great form (26% last 14 days). The 2m
6f Listed chase at 2.35 looks a good opportunity
for Hobbs' charge Menorah to regain the winning
thread, having won this race last year and is
dropping in class, having been outstayed in proper
3m Grade 1 chases lately. His stiffest opposition
should come from Paul Nicholls' Al Ferof, who won
a Grade 2 chase at Ascot earlier in the season over
this sort of distance, by seven lengths from
Somersby. Also, Nicholls' Rebel Rebellion is
interesting, if fresh enough after pulling up in the
Grand National last time. The 3.15 at Sandown is
the Grade 1 Celebration Chase, won 3 times in the
last 7 years by a runner of Paul Nicholls. Nicholls'
Vibrato Valtat is a course and distance winner, and
could go well, while Henry De Bromhead's (21%
last 14 days) Special Tiara is on an upward curve
and maybe has fewer questions to answer
compared to some. De Bromhead could also play
a hand in the meeting's feature race, the Bet365
Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 3m 5f. His
entrant Grand Jesture was a good second at
Cheltenham in the Grade 3 3m 1f handicap chase
and was staying on, so the extra distance for this
race could help. Another to consider is Lucy
Wadham's Le Reve, who is 2 from 6 at Sandown
and finished second to Rocky Creek in a Grade 3
handicap chase earlier in the season.
The sole televised race from Ripon is a 2m
handicap. Trainer Tom Tate's Eagle Rock has
winning form over distance, at this course and on
the expected good ground, and is 1lb below his last
winning mark. Marco Botti (25% last 14 days) could
saddle Norab, who went up 7lb for winning on his
seasonal debut last time, but won as he pleased
and could be open to further progress.
The 2.20 at Haydock, a 1m handicap, Sir Mark
Prescott's Don't Be is interesting upped in trip to
1m, having been running on over 7f, and returned
to handicap company, having run respectably in
defeat in Listed and conditions races. Sir Mark has
a great 37% strike rate at this course in the past
five seasons. Michael Dods' Le Chat D'Or is
interesting on his running in the Spring Mile and
subsequent third at Nottingham, where he finished
not far behind Yourartisonfire, with whom he has
helpful pull at the weights in this race. Dods' team
has been in good order; 19% last 14 days.

================================================
RACE RATING.

3.15 Sandown - Saturday, 25 April
Bet365 A P McCoy Celebration Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) 2m

211281 Clarcam 16 5 Gordon Elliott
Ran his best race to date when winning
the Grade 1 novices' chase over 2m 4f at
Aintree earlier in the month, finishing four
lengths clear of Vibrato Valtat. He has won
on the expected good ground and should
be thereabouts if in same form for this
race. RATING 99
11454 Court Minstrel 14 8 Evan Williams
Looked a fair novice chaser earlier in
season, with back-to-back wins, including
ahead of the well-regarded Chris Pea
Green, at Cheltenham in October. Was
held at this level on soft ground when well
beaten by Vibrato Valtat in the Scilly Isles
Chase over course and distance, and also
in the Arkle, but wasn't disgraced when a
six length-fourth behind Sizing Granite in
the Grade 1 Maghull at Aintree, on better
ground. On that basis, has a small chance
of sneaking a place in this company.
RATING 95
2-4584 Desert Cry 28 9 Donald McCain
Best bit of form came when winning the
2m Listed handicap chase at Ayr last April.
Returned to action when soundly beaten
by Mr Mole at Sandown in January and ran
no more than respectably back over
fences on latest start, when fourth in a
Grade 2 at Navan last month. Has quite a
bit to find in this company. RATING 93
117322 God ́s Own 14 7 Tom George
Hasn't quite developed into the chaser he
threatened to at the start of the season,
but second in the Maghull last time was
decent form, and not far off his best.
Finished second in the Arkle with a
conservative ride, when ahead of Vibrato
Valtat, but the latter was the only one who
tried to go with the standout winner, Un De
Sceaux. Capable of mixing it in this
company, but others preferable for win
purposes. RATING 96
1-1118 Mr Mole 45 7 Paul Nicholls
A quirky sort of character who has been
called a few names in the past, but has
plenty of ability. Won a Grade 2 en route
to Cheltenham, where he was a distant
eighth in the Champion Chase. Not one to
back with total confidence and has a bit to
find anyway. RATING 95
5-268F My Brother Sylvest 7 9 David Pipe
Was a good second in a course and
distance Class 2 handicap in January, a
good eighth in the Grand Annual at the
Cheltenham Festival, and then fell at the
first at Ayr last Saturday. A lot more on his
plate here and it’s assumed that he's none
the worse for his fall. RATING 91
6041P Next Sensation 16 8 Michael Scudamore
Relished the soft ground when winning the
Grand Annual and was pulled up when
weakening off 8lb higher in the Red Rum
Chase at Aintree last time. Ground was
slightly quicker there, and it's set to be quicker
again for this race, so probably up against it
in this much tougher race. RATING 91
583426 Pepite Rose 10 8 Venetia Williams
Admirable mare who has been placed in
some decent company, including when a
one-length second to the progressive
Rebel Rebellion in a 2m 4f handicap
chase (good ground) at Newbury last
month. Should have no stamina fears and
ground fine, but was well beaten when
eighth in the Tingle Creek (course and
distance) in December. RATING 94
02158 Sew On Target 15 10 Colin Tizzard
A good handicap chaser this season, who
has won some decent prizes, if outside of
Graded company. Best form was probably
his Class 2 handicap chase win at
Cheltenham, over 2m, suggesting trip and
uphill finish here should be fine, but
probably just isn’t good enough to be
considered for places, let alone the win.
RATING 90
1-U14F Sire De Grugy 15 9 Gary Moore
Former champion chaser who hasn't had
the most straightforward of seasons, but
resumed winning ways easily in a relatively
modest race at Chepstow in February.
Fourth in Champion Chase next time was
no disgrace, but was well short of his best,
and his fall in the Melling Chase at Aintree
last time doesn't inspire confidence in the
context of this race. RATING 97
562242 Somersby 45 11 Mick Channon
Grand old stager who has run some big
races in recent seasons, despite his
advancing years, including when narrowly
beaten twice by Dodging Bullets this
season; in the Champion Chase last time
and over course and distance in the Tingle
Creek in December. That form gives him a
solid each way chance here. RATING 98
1/P-2P Sprinter Sacre 45 9 Nicky Henderson
On his old form, this chaser, rated 188 at
his peak, would be the one to beat by a
country mile, but has questions to answer
having had problems on his comeback
when second to Dodging Bullets at Ascot
in January, then pulled up in the Champion
Chase. Reportedly had a clean bill of
health since Cheltenham, but others make
more convincing arguments. RATING 97
211142 Vibrato Valtat 16 6 Paul Nicholls
A course and distance winner earlier in the
season, at Grade 1 level, this smart novice
had no answer to the superb Un De Sceaux
in the Arkle last month, but ran well when
second over 2m 4f in the Grade 1
Manifesto Chase at Aintree last time. Could
be suited by drop back in trip and could go
close on the pick of his form. RATING 98
53413 Special Tiara 45 8 Henry De Bromhead
Has improved since finishing third in this
race last year; won a Grade 2 at
Kempton from Balder Succes, though
that horse probably wanted further, as
warranted when he won the Ascot Chase
subsequently, and was also third in the
Champion Chase. That result possibly
leaves him with something to find with
Somersby (second), but not readily
dismissed as he could improve past
Somersby.
RATING 100
==============================================

RACING NEWS.

Trainer Willie Mullins has publicised his
plans for the imminent Punchestown
Festival, with Arkle Chase winner Un Des
Sceaux taking the novices' chase option at
the meeting, whilst Cheltenham winner,
Faugheen, lines up in the Champion
Hurdle, possibly joined by Arctic Fire, a
heavy faller at Aintree last time. Arctic Fire
also holds an entry in the World Series
Hurdle. Mullins was quick to warn against
the possible effect of the Aintree fall,
though thinks the horse is fitter than he
has been all season. He also cautioned
Djakadam's prospects, who had a hard
race when finishing second in the Gold
Cup, ahead of a possible tilt at the
Punchestown Gold Cup, as a six-year-old
competing against older opposition.
US trainer Wesley Ward has left plans
uncertain for his Classic contenders
Hootenanny and Sunset Glow, ruling out a
trip to the Guineas with either horse.
Hootenanny was an impressive winner at
Keeneland last week on his reappearance,
after rising to prominence when winning the
Windsor Castle Stakes and Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Turf last season.
JLT Novices' Chase winner, Vautour, steps
out of novice company for the first time
when planning to contest the Boylesport
Champion Chase. Vautour is described by
his trainer Willie Mullins as "on his day, as
good a racehorse as I've had."
Whilst the senior jockeys' title was won long
ago in the National Hunt ranks, with Tony
McCoy winning a twentieth championship,
young riders Sean Bowen and Gold Cup-
winning rider Nico de Boinville are enjoying
a great battle for the conditional jockeys'
title. Both are planning to ride as far apart
as Newton Abbot and Perth during the last
week of the season in an attempt to secure
the hard-fought crown, and are being
supported heavily by their employers Paul
Nicholls and Nicky Henderson.
Willie Mullins has also reported that 22-
time Grade 1 winner, Hurricane Fly, will
step up to three miles for the first time in
his illustrious career to contest the World
Series Hurdle at Punchestown. He is
therefore avoiding a clash with Faugheen
and is renewing his rivalry with Rock On
Ruby and Jezki once again.
Trainer Richard Hannon has reported that
his three main Guineas contenders remain
on course for Newmarket despite being
turned over at Newbury. Short-priced
favourite Ivawood pleased Hannon when
finishing third in the Greenham Stakes,
running as though the extra furlong may suit
at Newmarket. Stable companion Estidkhaar
finished 4¾ lengths ahead in second place
behind surprise winner, Muhaarar, trained
by Charlie Hills. Tiggy Wiggy, who enjoyed a
remarkable juvenile campaign last year,
remains set to contest the 1,000 Guineas
despite failing to show her usual blistering
speed in the Fred Darling stakes. She was
ridden in behind to get the trip by Richard
Hughes, but finished weakly on her first
attempt at seven furlongs. Her trainer has
not ruled out a return to sprint distances
after Newmarket.
Sandown Park could be sold out this
weekend as fans flock for their last chance
to see Tony McCoy ride his final race.
Currently, McCoy's final mount looks set
to be the Paul Nicholls-trained Mr Mole, an
enigmatic character that McCoy has
conjured three wins out of this season,
including the Game Spirit Chase at
Newbury in February.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Last week's column provided an exciting afternoon's
racing at Sandown Park. We enjoyed a big race
double with Menorah winning at a generous 11/4,
and Special Tiara winning at 3/1. The best of the
rest was Sternrubin finishing second at 6/1. We
hope to continue that success this weekend at the
Guineas meeting at Newmarket (2.00, 2.35, 3.05
and 3.45) as well as Goodwood's 2.15 and 2.50
races, all live on Channel 4.
With only Flat racing to concentrate on this week, we
turn our attention to those who have been in the
winners' enclosure most often during the last week.
Jockey Silvestre de Sousa is in red-hot form, booting
home 8 winners from 24 rides (33%). David Probert (6
winners with a 29% strike rate) is taking full advantage
of the good form shown by the yards of Andrew Balding
(3 wins from 19 runners) and Ed de Giles (4 wins from
5 runners). Another to note is Frankie Dettori,
continuing his fine start to the season going into the
Guineas Meeting, where he has proved so successful
in the past. He boasts 6 wins from 14 rides at a
massive 43%, so his progress needs to be monitored.
Trainer John Gosden is enjoying a purple patch; 7
winners from 12 runners at 58%, including a double at
Doncaster last weekend. Northern trainer David
O'Meara's horses are running well, with 6 winners from
26 runners. Top Irish trainers, Aidan O'Brien (4 winners
from 19 runners) and David Wachman (3 from 9) are
also hitting top gear as the Flat season really lifts off.
The highest quality racing on Channel 4 this weekend
comes from Newmarket. The card opens with the
Suffolk Stakes, a 1m 1f handicap at 2.00. We have
selected the unexposed pair Top Tug and Taghreeb.
The former won at Newmarket last May, when
improving to beat Cloudscape. He then went missing
all summer, before finishing fifth over a mile and half
on the Rowley Mile in October. Dropped back in trip,
he is expected to go well, as is dual-winner Taghreeb,
who is stepping up in class for trainer Brian Meehan
(2/5 in last 7 days). The son of Dubawi won narrowly
on his seasonal debut over a mile, and could improve
again. The 2.35 Palace House Stakes should be an
opportunity for Sole Power to win his third renewal of
this race. He looked at his best when winning the Al
Quoz Sprint at Meydan in March and is a class act.
Opposition may come from William Haggas' Muthmir,
who won the Portland Handicap at Doncaster's St
Leger meeting last year. The 3.05 is the Jockey Club
Stakes over a mile and half. This has attracted only
six entries, with many seeing it as an opportunity for
Telescope to open his account for the season. He is
miles clear on ratings, but value could lie with Luca
Cumani's Second Step, a former Listed race winner.
The first Classic race of the season, the 2,000
Guineas, is at 3.45. Gleneagles will be a warm order,
but value could be found with his Aidan O'Brien-
trained stable-mate Highland Reel, if lining up. He
loves fast ground and won the Vintage Stakes well at
Glorious Goodwood last year, before enjoying a long
winter break. French raider, Territories, is intriguing,
having been supplemented by master trainer Andre
Fabre and is respected having won a Group 3 last
time out. Fabre won the 1,000 Guineas last season
with Miss France and would not have paid the
£30,000 supplementary fee with no good reason.
There are two televised races at Goodwood, the first
being the 2.15, a Listed race for fillies and mares.
The beautifully-bred Tamasha represents trainer
Ralph Beckett, who does well with his fillies,
especially at the highest level. She won a Salisbury
maiden last September by six lengths before running
well to finish sixth in a Listed race over 1m 5f on her
only other start. Dropped back in trip, she could
provide good value as she looks to step up in class.
Hot trainer John Gosden is represented by Criteria,
who was regularly placed at Group level last season.
This represents a drop in class on her seasonal
debut. The Betfred Handicap is Goodwood's 2.50
race, where we have chosen So Beloved.
Representing the in-form David O'Meara stable, this
horse was narrowly beaten on his seasonal debut at
Thirsk and runs from just a 3lb higher mark in this
race. He has course and distance form when
finishing third last year, which is always an advantage
at Goodwood. The final selection is Sir Mark
Prescott's Don't Be, who recorded five wins over the
winter on the all-weather. She was beaten a neck at
the all weather championships on Good Friday and
will hopefully translate her form to turf this afternoon.

========================================================


RACE RATING.

2.30 Newmarket - Saturday, 2 May

61132- Anthem Alexander 217 3 Edward Lynam
Held by the top-class two-year-old filly Tiggy
Wiggy over 6f on last two starts of 2014,
including when second in the Group 1
Cheveley Park Stakes, but did beat her over
this distance in the Group 2 Queen Mary
Stakes. That's very good form, and she will
enjoy a sex and age allowance in this race, but
it's taken on trust that this filly will have
trained on into 2015 and she faces some
seasoned campaigners here. RATING 96
254/6- Glass Office 427 5 David Simcock
Son of Verglas who has generally raced over
6f and 7f, but ran one of his best races last
season when a good fourth in the Group 2
King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.
May be more to come over this trip, and could
run a bold race from the front, but has
something to find with likely market leaders.
RATING 94
32142- Goldream 217 6 Robert Cowell
Progressive handicapper last season who won
over 5f and 6f, including at this meeting last
year, and whose best form gives him a chance
of sneaking a place, assuming he can find
further improvement. Yard generally does well
with its sprinters. RATING 93
37500- Hot Streak 209 4 Kevin Ryan
Held in some regard by yard, having finished
second in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes (6f)
in 2013. Last season perhaps didn't quite
fulfil the promise shown at two years, but he
was third in this race and third in the Group 1
Nunthorpe Stakes last year, behind Sole
Power on both occasions. Held by that horse
on that form, but has decent place claims if
fully on song, though some cut in the ground
would presumably help according to past
form. RATING 97
5217-0 Justice Day 35 4 David Elsworth
Won a Listed race last year among several fair
runs in defeat in this sort of race. Expected
quickish ground may not suit and others have
slightly more convincing claims anyway.
RATING 95
48491- Kingsgate Native 221 10 Robert Cowell
Grand old veteran who was a good second in
this race last year, on seasonal debut, though
form, after a busy campaign, slightly tailed off.
If tuned up for this race, he could go well at a
big price, but he still doesn't look an obvious
winner. RATING 96
11511- Mecca ́s Angel 224 4 Michael Dods
Likes cut in the ground, so good-firm ground
expected today will not be ideal. Won at this
level and over 5f last September, at Newbury,
having won a Listed race from Justice Day just
10 days previously. Obviously a good and
improving horse, but he potentially faces
better opposition in this race on what might
be too fast a surface. RATING 96
2151- Muthmir 231 5 William Haggas
Unexposed and improving sort who wound up
decent 2014 campaign with a clear-cut win in
the Portland Handicap at Doncaster's St Leger
meeting. That was good form and fully
deserves chance at this level, though most of
his form is over 6f or further. RATING 97
21164- Online Alexander 210 4 Kevin Ryan
Decent handicapper who just broke into Listed
class territory last year, though beaten three
lengths by Justice Day in the Listed Rous
Stakes at Ascot at the backend of the season.
On that form, has a fair amount to find in the
context of this race. RATING 92
20150- Pearl Secret 209 6 David Barron
Though placed at Group 1 level so far, Pearl
Secret is arguably a Group 2/3 horse, for
whom this distance and ground should be
fine, if better on soft. Goes well fresh and
could be thereabouts on pick of form to date.
RATING 97
4219-9 Stepper Point 35 6 William Muir
Not far off Sole Power on his best form, having
been a close second to that horse at level
weights in the King's Stand and the Nunthorpe
last season. Won a Group 3 on this ground
and may have a chance of getting his head in
front if getting weight from Sole Power in this
race. RATING 99
0377-7 Steps 15 7 Roger Varian
Held by Sole Power, Stepper Point and others
on the running of last year's King's Stand and
Nunthorpe races, but has a chance of making
up the places on the pick of his other runs in
defeat, and sole success over distance in a
Listed race. RATING 96
9246-1 Tangerine Trees 29 10 Bryan Smart
Getting on these days, and no longer the force
of old, if still running at a respectable level,
such as his win in a conditions race at
Musselburgh in April. Has winning form on a
variety of surfaces, but looks up against it
back in Group company. RATING 93
3100-2 Watchable 16 5 David O ́Meara
Progressed in top 6f and 7f handicaps last
season and made a great start to 2015 with a
second place over 6f in the Group 3 Abernant
Stakes at this course in April. Went up to a
career-high mark of 109 on the back of that run,
so heading the right way and could have the
stamina and pace to lie up with the end-to-end
gallop expected over this distance. RATING 98
14740- Wind Fire 182 4 David Brown
Ground and distance fine, and also a fairly
consistent sort, if one who looks better suited
to more run-of-the-mill Listed and Group 3
races, rather than this sort of race, which may
include several Group 1 performers. Has work
to do to enter serious reckoning. RATING 92
489-01 Sole Power 35 8 Edward Lynam
Advancing years have not diminished this
awesome sprinter, who has won five Group 1s
to date, including in Dubai in March. If in that
form for this race, he is very much the one to
beat, even allowing for the fact that he will be
giving weight away all around through various
success penalties.
RATING 100
================================================


NOTEBOOK.

The Charles Hills-trained
HIGH SPEED
ran in
the manner of a horse needing the experience
when a fast-finishing sixth of nine runners in a
5f maiden at Windsor on Monday night. High
Speed made a slow getaway but finished well
and she can improve next time, particularly as
one who is bred to do better over 6f and further.
Her stablemate,
SHANGHAI GLORY
, finished
third but also looked in need of the experience,
running greenly at the mid-point before
seemingly pulling himself together and running
on well at the close. He's related to several
winners over a 1m or more, so he's another
who should improve for running over further.

=================================



Top National Hunt jockey Jason Maguire
is to undergo spinal surgery for the
second time in a bid to repair a slipped
disc after a fall at Musselburgh earlier
this year. Maguire had hoped to mount a
serious challenge to win the jockeys'
championship this season, but is waiting
with trepidation on the outcome of his
surgery to decide whether he will be able
to race-ride again.
Newbury maiden winner Intilaaq, trained by
Roger Varian, and the Andre Fabre-trained
French raider, Territories, have both been
supplemented for the 2,000 Guineas at a cost
of £30,000 each. Territories won the Group 3
Prix de Fontainebleu last time out in April.
Beautiful Romance has been ruled out of
the 1,000 Guineas after being held up in
her training. Her handler, Saeed bin Suroor,
has stated that she remains on course for
a tilt at the Epsom Oaks, however.
One of Willie Mullins' best horses, Vautour,
has been ruled out of a tilt at the Champion
Chase at the Punchestown Festival after
failing to sparkle in his homework. The trainer
is instead represented by Champagne Fever,
Twin Light and Felix Younger, in an all-star cast
being sent to the Festival.
Jockey Noel Fehily will no longer be
attatched to the Charlie Longsdon yard, by
mutual agreement. Despite the
arrangement yielding over a hundred
winners in the past three years, Fehily's
commitment to Jared Sullivan, owner of
Silviniaco Conti amongst others, has made
him increasingly unavailable to ride for the
Longsdon yard.
Dubai World Cup heroes African Story and
Prince Bishop have been retired from
racing. The pair have run 49 races between
them, and collected nearly £10 million in
prize money. They are both geldings, so
cannot stand at stud, but will remain with
trainer Saeed bin Suroor for the immediate
future.
Jockey Sean Bowen was crowned
champion conditional at Sandown's jump
racing finale last Saturday, which he
confirmed with a double on the card.
Bowen's first winner of the day sealed his
championship win over Gold Cup-winning
rider Nico de Boinville, but later in the day
came the highlight of his fledgling career
when Just A Par won the Bet365 Gold
Cup. Given a superb ride from the back,
Just A Par came through at the last
possible moment to underline Bowen's
entry on to racing's big stage on the day
that A P McCoy retired. Trained by Paul
Nicholls, Just A Par was a fitting winner
on the day that he was presented with his
ninth trainers’ Championship.
Sandown Park staged a superb send-off in
front of a sell-out 18,000 crowd for the
twenty-time champion Jockey, Tony McCoy.
He was presented with his prize by football-
pundit and friend, Ian Wright, after
receiving a guard of honour from well
known racing celebrities and friends.
McCoy stated "I couldn’t think of a better
way to end my career. The people who
turned out at Sandown were amazing and
made it an unforgettable day. It's something
I'll remember forever." He finished third on
both of his rides on the day, his final race
being won by close friend, Richard Johnson.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


Please note that the television schedules and race times are subject to change and may differ from those listed here.
Stat Watch enjoyed another good weekend's racing,
featuring the Newmarket Guineas Festival. Our
highlight was Second Step, described as the value
option, winning The Jockey Club Stakes at 7/1,
beating the odds-on Telescope in the process. We
also had a good run in the 2,000 Guineas with
Territories finishing second at 5/1. Another worthy
of mention was Don't Be, who ran in another race at
the same meeting, winning at 6/1. We have mainly
Flat racing as our focus this week, as the only
televised Jumps race is the Pertemps Network
Handicap Hurdle, also known as the Swinton Hurdle,
at Haydock, at 3.25. Channel 4 is also showing The
Lingfield Trial races at 2.20 and 2.55, as well as
Ascot at 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45.
Trainers in form include Ralph Beckett, who boasts a
strike rate of 31% with 5 winners from 16 runners. Also,
David O'Meara's luck is still in with a quarter of his
horses winning in the past week (6 from 24), and Brian
Ellison boasts the same strike rate with 4 from 16.
Jockeys worth following include James Doyle (6 from
22), George Baker (5 from 19) and the ever-reliable
Ryan Moore with 6 from 17 rides at a rate of 35%.
Starting at Ascot, the 2.35 is the Listed Buckhound
Stakes over 1½ m. The selection is Winter Thunder,
who looks an obvious choice after winning a
valuable Newmarket apprentices' race last autumn.
He appears much better than a handicapper and
should benefit from the services of the in-form
James Doyle. Opposition may come from the less-
exposed Fractal, who has won his last three races,
including an 8-length victory at Chepstow. He has to
improve to win, but is certainly on an upward curve.
The 3.10 at Ascot is a 1m fillies' handicap.
Temptress looks an ideal sort for trainer Roger
Charlton (3 from 9 last week), having won a
Goodwood maiden and a handicap at Ascot.
Opposition may come from John Gosden's Solar
Magic, who won her maiden at Ascot last July. She
made an encouraging start to the year when
finishing second in a Listed race, beaten 1¼ lengths
by a horse rated 12lbs superior. The final televised
race at Ascot is the Victoria Cup over 7 furlongs. This
is a tough assignment, so a tentative selection is the
Brian Ellison-trained Baraweez. This horse has
already impressed when winning valuable
handicaps at the Galway Festival and at
Leopardstown. He is returning to 7 furlongs today
after two below-par efforts over a mile, including
when eighth in the Lincoln. He should strip fitter for
that outing, and is fancied alongside Speculative
Bid, who has been aimed at this race by trainer
David Elsworth for some time. This horse has won
his last two starts at Kempton over 7 furlongs and
should cope with the switch back to turf.
Turning our attention to Lingfield Park for their Epsom
trials meeting, the Oaks Trial is the fillies' highlight at
2.20. This should prove an easy task for the Group 1
Fillies' Mile winner Together Forever to blow away the
cobwebs on her seasonal debut. She doesn’t possess
the most obvious middle-distance pedigree, and
shoulders a 6lb penalty, but looks a class above her
opposition. Each-way value may come from Paul Cole's
Jasmine Blue, who looks on the upgrade after winning
a Newbury maiden very impressively last time out. She
made all, and was rated as Royal Ascot-class by her
trainer. The 2.55 race is the Derby Trial Stakes, where
Christophermarlowe is another strong fancy, having
added the Epsom equivalent to his collection last time.
Aidan O'Brien has five entered in the race, with King
Of Aragon being his possible first choice. He won a
Tipperary maiden last month without being extended
and has a host of decent entries this summer. Whilst
not a potential champion, he could be the one to give
the favourite the most to think about.
Our last race to mention is the 3.25 at Haydock, the
Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle over 2m. This is
another very competitive race, but one that stands
out is Quick Jack, trained by Tony Martin in Ireland
(4 from 18 last week). He looks to have been laid out
for this race, running just once over hurdles last
season, when finishing third in the County Hurdle at
Cheltenham. He is just 3lbs higher for that excellent
run. Value opposition may come from Dan Skelton's
Stephanie Francis, who is justifiably up in grade after
winning her last two races. She is raised 10lbs for
her last win at Cheltenham, but is a good ground
specialist and is in superb form at present.
==============================================


RACE RATING.

2.55 Lingfield - Saturday, 9 May
Betfred Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m3f106


11-1 Christophermarlowe 17 3 John Gosden
Probably didn't beat too much when
landing the Derby Trial conditions race at
Epsom Downs' first meeting of the season
last month, but did nothing wrong and
extended winning record in the manner of
a horse on the upgrade. Beat Future
Empire that day by four lengths, despite
giving that horse 2lb, and probably has
the best form on offer among the entrants
for this race.
RATING 100
217- Bartholomew Fair 210 3 Luca Cumani
Son of Dansili out of a Machiavellian mare
who is a half-brother to two black-type
performers, including the Derrinstown
Derby Trial-third Grand Central. Ran two
solid races in maidens last season, winning
the second of those, a 1m maiden at
Yarmouth, before improving to finish a held-
seventh in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at
Newmarket last October. Work to do in this
company. RATING 92
515-3 Dancetrack 28 3 Charles Hills
Straightforward winner of a 7f Leicester
maiden last September, improving
marginally next time to finish a fair fifth in
the Group 3 Somerville Stakes (7f), when
looking in need of further. Improved when
stepped up to a mile on seasonal debut at
this course, keeping on, and no surprise if
improving again over additional distance for
this race. RATING 93
123-2 Future Empire 17 3 Saeed bin Suroor
Though strictly held by Christophermarlowe
when second to that horse at Epsom last
month, he didn't handle the infamous
undulations at that course and ran on well.
On that basis, step up in trip should suit him
down to the ground and he may just offer
enough value to tempt backers away from
Christophermarlowe. RATING 99
4-2 Great Glen 24 3 Ralph Beckett
Improving son of High Chaparral who has
raced just twice so far, but has shown
promise in defeat, including when second
over 10f at Newmarket's Craven meeting
last month. From a family with winning form
over the middle-distances, including black
type, and he may also enter reckoning if
taking to this step up in trip as expected.
RATING 95
4-21 Hans Holbein 24 3 A P O ́Brien
A half-brother to the former Irish St Leger
winner Sans Frontieres, and got off the
mark last time in a 10f maiden at
Leopardstown. Limited evidence, but not
inconceivable that he should improve again
and connections know the time of day in
these sorts of races (trainer has saddled
three winners in the last seven races).
RATING 96
96-1 Kilimanjaro 15 3 A P O ́Brien
Won for the first time last month, when
fitted with a first-time hood to beat an
ordinary field in a 1m 2f Dundalk maiden.
Could be more to come, but the manner of
his victory was solid rather than sensational
and has work to do in the context of this
race. RATING 94
9-21 King Of Aragon 16 3 A P O ́Brien
Shown fair form in finishing second and
then winning in two starts over 1m 4f this
season. Probably won more easily than the
finishing margin suggested last time, and,
as a half-brother to a Group 1 Grand Prix de
Paris winner, there may be more to come
from him. RATING 95
21- Magic Dancer 193 3 Ralph Beckett
Speedily-bred son of the top-class miler
Norse Dancer who ran well in two Windsor
maidens over an extended mile at the
backend of last season on soft ground.
Unexposed on quicker good ground
expected for this race, or over this extended
trip. Probably best to watch markets for
signs of confidence, but paper form leaves
him with plenty to find with some rivals in
this race. RATING 93
42152- Order Of St George 195 3 A P O ́Brien
Unraced this year but has plenty of
experience based on five outings last
season, including when finishing fifth in the
Group 3 Autumn Stakes, two places ahead
of Bartholomew Fair, but two places behind
Future Empire. Was doing all his best work
late on when narrowly denied in a Listed race
over 1m 1f at Leopardstown on final start of
season (was noted as having sweated up
beforehand). Trip should suit today and has
chance if fully wound up. RATING 97
70-6 Proposed 23 3 Richard Hannon
Held in two starts in 1m maidens towards the
end of last summer, but then left that form
behind last month, when sixth, beaten less
than three lengths, in the valuable Tattersalls
3yo Trophy race at Newmarket. Stayed on well
over 10f trip that day and interesting to see if
top stable can wring out any further
improvement in him for this race. RATING 96
2114-8 Red Tornado 55 3 Harry Dunlop
Showed a useful level of ability last season,
including when fourth on very soft ground,
over 1m 1f, in a Group 3 at Longchamp.
Ran no sort of race at Saint-Cloud two
months ago and others have more
convincing claims. RATING 95
1 Sandro Botticelli 20 3 A P O ́Brien
Won a 10f Curragh maiden on racing debut
last month and as a half-brother to a Derby-
third, obviously has form and pedigree
claims over this trip and at this level. Less
exposed than stablemates who are also
entered in this race and could feasibly step
up for the increased distance and
experience of his previous run. RATING 98
22-51 Storm The Stars 14 3 William Haggas
Lost his maiden at the fourth time of asking
towards the end of last month, when
successful in a 10f Leicester maiden. Well
regarded by respected connections, who
felt that things hadn't gone to plan for Storm
The Stars in his first run of the season at
Newmarket. His dam is a half-sister to
Giant's Causeway and is also related to the
dam of last Saturday's 2,000 Guineas
winner, Gleneagles. Interesting, if with a bit
to prove, given form to date. RATING 95
==========================================


RACING NEWS.



Trainer Willie Mullins trained a remarkable
16 winners at the Punchestown Festival,
breaking his own previous record of 13 at
the meeting. He collected 10 of the
possible 12 Grade 1 races, winning with
stable stars Faugheen, Un De Sceaux,
Annie Power, Douvan and Felix Younger.
The master trainer was especially pleased
to see Annie Power return to winning ways
after her fall at the Cheltenham Festival.
Ryan Moore added both the 1,000 and 2,000
Guineas to his CV for the first time last
weekend. He was aboard the Aidan O'Brien-
trained Gleneagles for the colts' race, who
came away from the French raider Territories
to win comfortably. Starting favourite,
Gleneagles was the first part of a big race
double for owners Michael Tabor, Derrick
Smith and John Magnier, as their Legatissimo
overtook the more fancied Lucida close home
to win the fillies' race on Sunday.
The remarkable Cirrus Des Aigles won a
third Prix Ganay at Longchamp, beating the
Roger Charlton-trained Al Kazeem into
second place. Jockey Christophe Soumillon
rode an excellent tactical race, electing to
make all the running as there was no
pacemaker, holding off the challenge of
the British raider by a length and three-
quarters at the line.
Former Jump jockey Timmy Murphy is
resurrecting his riding career, but is electing
to ride on the Flat only. Inspired by former
colleagues Graham Lee and Jim Crowley,
Murphy began at Brighton on Wednesday and
is looking to enhance his record on the level.
Trainer Nicky Henderson has hinted that
the former star Simonsig could return to
action either on the Flat or over obstacles
in France. The horse is nearly ready to run
after two years off the track from injury, but
may head to France as there are better
opportunities for horses that have not won
for that period of time.
Irish jockey Michael Hussey has been awarded
a 14-day ban after finishing second on My
Painter at The Curragh. The jockey was
unaware of the eventual winner challenging on
the far side of the course, and was judged to
have 'failed to ride out' My Painter as required,
eventually being beaten half a length.
Long-term ante- post favourite for the 1,000
Guineas, Found, was surprisingly beaten
into second place in the Group 3 Athasi
Stakes at The Curragh after avoiding
Newmarket. Trainer Aidan O'Brien blamed a
lack of race fitness and heavy ground for the
defeat, as the more experienced and mud-
loving Iveagh Gardens caught Found close
home. The winner was a rare pattern
success for J P McManus, who was at the
course after enjoying seeing Jezki triumph
over Hurricane Fly at the Punchestown
Festival the previous week. Found now
heads to the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
After the Guineas, leading trainers have
hinted at plans for their stable stars. Sir Mark
Prescott was pleased with Celestial Path, who
finished fifth from a poor draw, who could
head to the St James Palace Stakes, hoping
for fast ground. Trainer Richard Hannon
suggests he could be joined by third-placed
Ivawood, who proved that he stays a mile, and
may take in the Irish 2,000 Guineas in the
meantime. His star filly, Tiggy Wiggy, ran an
excellent race to also finish third in the fillies'
race, but will drop back in trip as expected as
she retains all the speed she showed in her
juvenile campaign. Meanwhile, trainer Jim
Bolger states that second-placed Lucida will
head to The Curragh for the Irish Guineas.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

We enjoyed another profitable weekend last week,
with Ascot providing us with two excellent winners.
Temptress was a 9/2 winner, beating the other race
selection, Solar Magic, into second place. Our biggest-
priced winner was Speculative Bid, however, who won
the highly competitive Victoria Cup at 10/1. Let's hope
we can keep up the good work this weekend! There
are four races at Newbury to watch on Channel 4
(2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45), complemented by three
at Newmarket (2.15, 2.50 and 3.25).
Those in form last week included Aidan O'Brien, with
5 winners from 13 runners, though his Classic
hopefuls haven’t performed as expected in recent
weeks. Others in form include John Gosden, who
trained 5 winners from 21 runners (24%) and Ralph
Beckett, with 4 winners from 11 runners (36%).
Jockey William Buick is red-hot, booting home 7
winners from 23 rides last week, along with
colleagues Paul Mulrennan (6/19), Ben Curtis (4/9)
and Graham Gibbons (5/13).
Heading first to Newbury for the 2.00, trainer John
Gosden will be keen to get another win into
ROMSDAL
before he reverts back to Group 1
company. He was third in the Derby and second in
the St Leger last season, and has proved his well
being by winning a Kempton Listed race in March.
He stays well and should outclass his field today.
Opposition may come from the improving
ELITE
ARMY
, who has not run since winning the King
George V Handicap at Royal Ascot last year. He
certainly suggested that some improvement was
quite likely when winning for Godolphin. The 2.35 is
a Listed race over 6f and Charles Hills'
SALT ISLAND
looks as though this race could be a stepping stone
to better things, based on the manner of his success
at Newmarket in April, in a competitive 6f handicap.
WAADY
could finish in the first three, having won at
Nottingham and Sandown already this year. He is a
very fast horse and could appear late on the scene
if staying the extra furlong. At 3.10, Sir Michael
Stoute will be looking to win a third London Cup in
the last ten years with
DISSOLUTION
. The son of
New Approach has taken time to shape up, but is
going the right way based on his win over 10f at
Newmarket last month, and is up just 2lbs in the
weights. Trainer Ed Dunlop has also won this race
twice in the last ten years and is represented by
DUTCH UNCLE
. He won his maiden after chasing
home Derby favourite Jack Hobbs at Wolverhampton
previously, and was beaten a neck at Doncaster last
month, when giving weight to the winner. He is
clearly on an upward curve. The final televised race
from Newbury is the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes,
where favourite
NIGHT OF THUNDER
stands out.
The 2014 2,000 Guineas winner has the best
proven form on offer and is expected to give trainer
Richard Hannon his second win in the race. He may
be given most to do by the tough mare
INTEGRAL
,
who is a proven Group 1 horse after winning the
Falmouth and Sun Chariots Stakes last year. Sir
Michael Stoute last won this race in 2006 with
Peeress, another mare who runs in the same
ownership; a striking comparison.
At Newmarket, the 2.15 race is a 1m 6f handicap,
with
ALCAEUS
leaping from the page. Sir Mark
Prescott's lightly raced son of Hernando won six
handicaps in 2013, but raced just once last year,
when unfortunate not to win at Ascot. He sets the
standard and is guaranteed to be in peak form if Sir
Mark is prepared to run him.
NORAB
can provide
opposition for Marco Botti after impressing at
Chelmsford last month. The 2.50 is the Listed King
Charles II Stakes, and we have gone for William
Buick's (7/23) possible ride
LATHARNACH
, who has
won twice at Sandown over the same trip, loves fast
ground and hints that there could be more to come.
John Gosden is represented by
YASMEEN
, who won
his only start at Newbury last month, but is held in
high regard. The son of Sea The Stars won by two
lengths at Newbury, despite being the less fancied of
Gosden's three runners. Newmarket's final televised
race is the Sprint Trophy, run at 3.25. Ralph Beckett's
(4/11)
GOLD FLASH
comes here after finishing third
at Doncaster last month, having won a maiden at
Kempton in December. He still showed signs of
inexperience last time and is entitled to improve.
PROPERUS
, who finished second to Salt Island last
month, rates as a danger for local trainer William
Haggas, having won a maiden at Redcar last October.
===============================================
RACE RATING.

3.45 NEWBURY.


3920-2 Aljamaaheer 21 6 9-0 Roger Varian
Posted a personal best effort when third over 6f
in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes last year,
and not far off that later on in season when a
close second over 7f in Group 2 Park Stakes.
Second in this race two years ago and fair effort
on reappearance when second in a Listed race
over 7f at Leicester last month, but more to do in
this company. RATING 95
2415-2 Arod 30 4 9-0 Peter Chapple-Hyam
Looked a potential star in early part of last season
when finishing second in the Dante and then fourth
in the Derby, but form levelled out and it's
interesting that connections are considering
dropping him back in trip after he finished a decent
second over 1m 1f in a Group 3 at Newmarket last
month. Respected but has something to prove over
this trip at this level. RATING 93
31213- Breton Rock 211 5 9-0 David Simcock
Progressive son of Bahamian Bounty who has
improved for running over further, winning the
Group 2 Hungerford Stakes last season. That's his
best form and that gives him an each way squeak
in this race, assuming he's on song for his first run
of the year and will handle the step up to a mile.
RATING 94
0662-3 Cable Bay 27 4 9-0 Charles Hills
Though only once a winner in 12 starts to date,
this son of Invincible Spirit was a smart juvenile,
finishing second in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes.
Didn't quite live up to that form last season and
may need some cut in the ground to be seen at
his best. Last month's comeback run in a 7f Group
3 at The Curragh was encouraging, but others
look more convincing in this race. RATING 95
2540-5 Captain Cat 63 6 9-0 Roger Charlton
Son of Dylan Thomas who has been a fine servant
for the yard in last few seasons. Won two Group
3s over 1m last season and not disgraced when
fifth on heavy ground in the QEII Stakes in the
autumn. Expected good ground for this race
should suit and latest comeback run over 10f in
the Winter Derby was promising. Could go well at
a price. RATING 97
1590-4 Cougar Mountain 31 4 9-0 A P O ́Brien
Unexposed son of Fastnet Rock who ran
respectably on first try over 1m last month, but
was held. Had decent form in defeat in top sprints
last season and no surprise if he steps up again
on only his second go at this distance. RATING 95
1118-1 Custom Cut 22 6 9-0 David O ́Meara
Has form over a number of his rivals in this race,
including Captain Cat, through his improved
performances last season, after switching to this
stable. Beat Here Comes When when victorious in
the Group 2 Sandown Mile last month and that's
among the best form this season of those who
could run in this race. RATING 98
5011-2 Here Comes When 22 5 9-0 Andrew Balding
Beaten by Custom Cut in a Group 2 over distance
at Sandown last month. Stable's runners normally
improve for their first run, but past form suggests
that Here Comes When would be better suited by
softer going than that forecast for this meeting.
Not entirely written off, but may be one for a place,
rather than for outright success. RATING 96
3253-2 Hors De Combat 17 4 9-0 James Fanshawe
Solid performer over 1m who has improved
beyond his very good handicap form of last
season (third in the Britannia Stakes at Royal
Ascot), and was a good second on his seasonal
debut last month, in a Listed race over distance
at Ascot. Held by Custom Cut and Captain Cat
when third to those two horses in the Group 2 Joel
Stakes last September, though is less exposed
than some in this race and trainer has a good
record for finding improvement in older horses in
these sorts of races. Respected. RATING 97
21801- Karakontie 196 4 9-0 J E Pease
A three-time Group 1 winner over the last two
seasons, including the French 2,000 Guineas
and his Breeders' Cup Mile win at the end of
his 2014 campaign probably represents the
best bit of form of any of the entrants here. If
fully wound up for this run, should be the one
to beat.
RATING 100
11300- Master Carpenter 232 4 9-0 Rod Millman
A decent miler but one whose limitations were
found out in Group company last season. Probably
just hovering on the boundaries between Listed
and Group 3 races, and looks up against it in this
race. RATING 91
125-31 Moohaarib 17 4 9-0 Marco Botti
Beat Hors De Combat in the Paradise Stakes at
Ascot last month, following on from solid third in the
Lincoln. Handicapper has hiked him up to a career-
high mark of 115, which makes this race a logical
target, and though he has to prove he's up to it, it
would be no surprise to see him go well for trainer
who knows the time of day with the relatively few
runners he has had at this level. RATING 98
12832- Night Of Thunder 210 4 9-0 Richard Hannon
Last season's 2,000 Guineas winner who ran very
good races in defeat in the St James's Palace
Stakes, Prix Du Moulin and QEII Stakes. That's
among the best form on offer and would be
expected to be on the premises in this race.
RATING 99
76233- Toormore 210 4 9-0 Richard Hannon
Unbeaten two-year-old, including at Group 1 level,
but didn't live up to expectations last season,
though third in QEII at the end of the season was a
good effort (Night Of Thunder second). Could be in
the frame in this race on pick of form but doesn't
have the most convincing profile. RATING 97
2402-4 Top Notch Tonto 22 5 9-0 Brian Ellison
Ran a cracker over this distance when second in
the 2013 running of the QEII Stakes, but general
form in subsequent races hasn't quite scaled
those heights. Well held when fourth behind
Custom Cut in the Sandown Mile last month and
others are more appealing. RATING 93
137-20 Trade Storm 49 7 9-0 David Simcock
Was always out of contention in the Dubai Turf
last time, but was second in the Group 1 Jebel
Hatta the time before, and was only beaten two
lengths by Karakontie (who was carrying 3lb less)
in the Breeders' Cup Mile at the end of last
season. Beaten by Custom Cut earlier in the
season, in a Group 3 at York over 9f, but has place
claims. RATING 97
444-14 Tullius 22 7 9-0 Andrew Balding
Has run well on good ground, but all best form
suggests that he likes plenty of cut in the ground
and, generally speaking, he has the profile of a
Group 2 horse rather than a genuine Group 1
contender, despite admirable runs in defeat at
that level. Others preferred for win considerations.
RATING 96
152d4- Yuften 275 4 9-0 William Haggas
Progressive son of Invincible Spirit who easily won
a Newmarket maiden before running well when
fifth in the St James's Palace Stakes and then
second (subsequently disqualified to fourth) in the
Priz Jean Prat. Things didn't go to plan when last
season, finishing a beaten-fourth behind Captain
Cat in a Group 3 at Salisbury, and doesn't quite
have the solidity of form to enter serious reckoning
for this race on seasonal debut. RATING 95
11317- Integral 210 5 8-11 Sir Michael Stoute
Talented mare who won the Falmouth Stakes and
Sun Chariot Stakes last season, if held against the
colts and geldings in the QEII Stakes on her final
start of 2014. Possibly the heavy ground went
against her that day, as she had run well on soft
previously, and she is highly respected in the
context of this race, given her weight allowance as
a mare, lofty rating and as one hailing from a yard
that has won this race previously. RATING 98

================================================


RACING NEWS.

The very popular chaser Balthazar King is due
to return home shortly after sustaining broken
ribs when falling in the Grand National a month
ago. The chaser had been expected to return
to his owners in Hampshire sooner, but the vets
at University of Liverpool Veterinary Hospital
wanted to keep him in to make sure he is ready
for the long journey home.
Betting for the Derby seems more confused
after the French Guineas and Chester's May
Meeting. Hans Holbein impressed when
winning a sixth Chester Vase for Aidan O'Brien,
as did his Lingfield Derby Trial winner,
Kilimanjaro. Both were very good winners
under Ryan Moore, staying on strongly and
showing their best form to date after winning
their maidens. Moore said of his Lingfield
winner: "He's a nice progressive horse and I
think he'll have a good year. "
John Gosden's Derby hope Christophermarlowe
finished well down the pack in the Lingfield
Derby Trial, despite being long odds-on. Jockey
Frankie Dettori was quick to blame the soft
ground for the American-bred's performance.
Aidan O'Brien's Highland Reel was another of
the stable's Classic hopes to disappoint on their
seasonal debuts. He finished sixth in the
French Guineas after starting favourite, having
won the Vintage stakes at Glorious Goodwood
on his last start, but sweated up prior to the
race and never really settled during the contest.
Small trainer Martyn Meade was thrilled with
his stable star, Irish Rookie, who finished
second in the French Guineas at Longchamp.
The filly had been sixth in the Newmarket
equivalent, and is improving with every run, as
this was just her fourth start.
Ken Condon's Success Days managed to add
the Derrinstown Derby Trial to his CV last
weekend, defeating just two rivals in the
process. Very soft ground had discouraged
most from running, but Condon suggests that
soft ground is essential for his horse, who has
already won the Ballysax Stakes this season.
Other horses to win both trials include
Galileo, High Chaparral, Yeats and Fame And
Glory. Success Days is not currently entered
at Espom, so may wait for The Curragh
equivalent, in the hope of soft ground.
Brazilian jockey Fausto Dursto, 39, was stabbed
to death outside his parent's home in his native
country. He had twice been champion jockey in
Macau, and had been responsible for
introducing Silvestre De Sousa to the Racing
School in Sao Paulo, encouraging him to begin
a racing career. De Sousa described his friend
as a 'good rider and a friendly guy'.
Speculative Bid came from last to first to win
the Victoria Cup very impressively. David
Elsworth's charge looks destined for better
things, having won all three races this year,
transforming his form from Kempton's
Polytrack to turf with ease. A step up in grade
looks very likely for the son of Excellent Art,
who looks very suited to a stiff seven furlongs.
Shares in the bookmaking industry rocketed on
Friday immediately after the result of the
General Election was announced. The overall
majority of the Conservative Party has been
largely regarded as beneficial to the industry.
Some left-wing parties had reportedly intended
to review the use of gaming machines in their
manifesto, to prevent continued 'harm and
hardship' that they may cause. The betting
industry says it would have suffered if
regulations were placed on gaming machines,
as they would have had a knock-on effect on
the horseracing industry, due to lost betting
revenue

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

Last week didn’t prove quite as fruitful as the
previous two weeks, though plenty of our selections
ran with great credit. Night Of Thunder WON the
feature Lockinge Stakes for us at 11/4, while we had
Salt Island (5/1), Dissolution (9/2) and Dutch Uncle
(17/2), who all ran well in other races, finishing in the
first three. We're confident we can do better this
week with four races from Haydock on Channel 4
Racing, the 2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45, as well as
three from Goodwood (1.45, 2.20 and 2.55) and the
Irish 2,000 Guineas from The Curragh at 3.20.
Trainers in form in the last seven days include
Aidan O'Brien, despite his high-profile horses being
sunk at York, with 5 winners from 17 runners.
Kevin Ryan has been in great form, training 5 from
23, whilst Clive Cox boasts the best strike rate,
winning 3 from 7 at 43%. John Gosden continues
his remarkable form with 6 from 31.
Starting at Goodwood,
TULLIUS
looks set to enjoy
a step up in trip in the opening Listed race, run at
1.45. He is a very solid pattern-grade horse who
should outclass this field. Opposition may come
from John Gosden's
REMOTE
, who hasn't been
seen since winning the Tercentenary Stakes at
Royal Ascot in 2013. The 2.20 is another Listed
race, where Gosden is represented again with
FOREVER NOW
. He stepped up in trip after
winning his maiden over today's distance, so may
welcome the return to 1m 4f. William Haggas'
MY
SPIRIT
should run well here, having been placed
in a Saint-Cloud Listed race last September. Our
final race at Goodwood (2.55) is a 7f handicap for
three-year-olds. Clive Cox's
MY DREAM BOAT
is on
the upgrade having won his maiden last week on
his first start for the stable. Next best is
KING TO
BE
, who won his maiden over course and distance.
The in-form Cam Hardie (3 wins from 11 rides last
week) is currently booked to ride.
Heading north to Haydock, the 2.00 is a long-
distance handicap, where
ALCAEUS
may make his
return to action for Sir Mark Prescott. After six wins
in 2013, Alcaeus appeared just once last season,
when narrowly beaten at Ascot. He has looked an
Ebor horse in the past and is certainly in the right
hands to fulfil his potential. Opposition could come
from
TAWS
, a very consistent staying filly that was
third at Ascot last time. The 2.35 looks
competitive, with two horses owned by Sheikh
Hamdan looking the likely favourites. Of the two,
MUTASAYYID
looks better treated, having won
handicaps at Ascot last year and at Newmarket on
his reappearance. Opposition could come from
Kevin Ryan's
SALATEEN
, who finished third to Elm
Park in the Royal Lodge Stakes last season. The
3.10 is a fillies' and mares' Listed event over 6f.
DIVINE
possesses the best form on offer here, as
she looked very exciting when winning at Windsor
on her reappearance, despite giving weight away
all round. Tom Dascombe's
EXCILLY
opened her
account at Chester last time out and comes here
on the upgrade, looking for some black type.
Haydock's feature race is the Temple Stakes at
3.45. Sole Power is likely to start favourite, but has
a comparatively poor record in the race by his high
standards.
HOT STREAK
won the race for the in-
form Kevin Ryan last season and can land the
prize for the second year running. David O'Meara's
G FORCE
can go close, having won the Betfred
Sprint Cup here last year.
The feature race of the day is the Irish 2,000
Guineas, run at The Curragh at 3.20.
GLENEAGLES
looks really difficult to oppose here
after winning at Newmarket earlier in the month.
He is one of the few successful juveniles that has
held their form for the O'Brien stable, as the likes
of John F Kennedy and Ol' Man River have been
very disappointing this year. The only doubt for him
is if the ground was soft, which would bring the
Roger Varian-trained
VERT DE GRECE
into the
equation. The son of Verglas won his only start for
the stable at Saint Cloud last October, having
begun life trained in Ireland by Joseph Murphy.
=================================================================




RACE RATING.

3.45 Haydock - Saturday, 23 May
Betfred Temple Stakes (Class 1) (Group 2) 5f


25610- G Force 217 4 9-8 David O ́Meara
Formerly with Richard Hannon but improved a
bundle for the move to the in-form David O'Meara,
in whose hands this son of Tamayuz landed the
Group 1 Sprint Cup at this course last September.
Wasn't seen to best effect on heavy ground next
time, on final start of season, so return to forecast
good to soft going at Haydock should suit.
Respected. RATING 98
19122- Danzeno 231 4 9-4 Michael Appleby
Progressive sprinter who won the Group 3
Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle last summer, and
went close again at that level when second to the
well-regarded Lightning Moon in the Bengough
Stakes at Ascot. Less exposed than some fellow
entrants in this race and has a chance of making
the frame. RATING 96
2142-1 Goldream 21 6 9-4 Robert Cowell
Posted a career-best when winning the Group 3
Palace House Stakes, over distance, on his
seasonal debut last time. Probably didn't face as
strong opposition in that race as he might in this
race, but may improve again. RATING 97
11-411 Great Minds 26 5 9-4 T Stack
Son of Bahamian Bounty who has raised his game
in three starts this season, winning Listed races on
his last two starts, beating the fair benchmark
Musical Comedy on his latest outing. Form
suggests he needs some cut in the ground, so
current good-soft forecast may be a little on the
quick side for him. RATING 96
7500-3 Hot Streak 13 4 9-4 Kevin Ryan
Expected by connections to improve this season as
a stronger, more mature horse. Returned to action
with a good third in a Group 3 at Longchamp this
season, behind the decent Meccas Angel. That was
a worthy seasonal debut, but one that he needs to
build on if he is to be considered a danger in this
race. RATING 96
34-443 Jack Dexter 10 6 9-4 Jim Goldie
Fine and admirably consistent sprinter, who is
probably a Listed/Group 3 contender, but often
runs well in defeat, including when seventh in the
Group 1 King's Stand Stakes last year, beaten less
than three lengths by Sole Power. Can be relied
upon to run his race, but probably not quite good
enough in this company. RATING 94
17-020 Justice Day 10 4 9-4 David Elsworth
Third in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at two
hasn't provided the springboard into Group 1 races
this season and that might have once been
anticipated, but he's shown well over this distance
in Listed and Group 3 races. His better
performances give him a chance of sneaking a
place, though only if others underperform.
RATING 93
8491-3 Kingsgate Native 21 10 9-4 Robert Cowell
Latest third on his seasonal debut in the Group 3
Palace House Stakes at Newmarket was among
this hardy veteran's best form, but general profile
in recent seasons has been at a lower level
compared to his Group 1 winning days, if still
competitive in Listed and Group 3 races. Up against
it here. RATING 93
040-34 Maarek 13 8 9-4 Miss Evanna McCutcheon
Held by G Force, Sole Power, Justice Day and Hot
Streak on form of recent races at Haydock and
Longchamp and has a lot to find with likely market
principals. RATING 91
0150-8 Pearl Secret 13 6 9-4 David Barron
Second to Hot Streak in this race last year, and later
won a Listed race at Beverley. Seems versatile in
terms of ground, but probably held even on pick of
form and looks one likely to be competing for the
minor prize money places. RATING 94
1-8111Pretend 50 4 9-4 Charlie Appleby
Improving son of Invincible Spirit who could make
his turf debut in this race, on the back of three all-
weather wins over 5f and 6f at Lingfield, including
Listed class. Interesting to see how he fares against
stiffer opposition here, and could go well at
generous odds for his in-form stable. RATING 96
544-31 Robot Boy 36 5 9-4 David Barron
A very good sprint handicapper who has only once
dabbled in Group races so far, when a three-length
fourth to Stepper Boy at the Curragh last
September. Probably ran one of his best races to
date when winning a Newmarket 5f handicap last
month, and seems reasonably flexible in terms of
ground preferences. Has a lot more on his plate in
this race. RATING 94
0377-7 Steps 36 7 9-4 Roger Varian
Twice a Listed winner over this distance, including
at this course last season. Held by Robot Boy on
latest run in a Newmarket handicap, where he
looked held before being left short of room and
then eased inside the last furlong. Possibly better
than that form, but recent form doesn't offer much
hope. RATING 93
11846- Take Cover 230 8 9-4 David C Griffiths
Beat G Force in a Listed race over distance at York
last summer and followed that with a Group 2 win
at Glorious Goodwood. Not disgraced on
subsequent starts, when not beaten far in Group
1s, including the Nunthorpe and the Abbaye. Could
go well at attractive odds. RATING 97
4740-6 Wind Fire 21 4 9-1 David Brown
A solid Listed-class performer who runs respectably
in these sorts of races, though he shaped with a bit
of promise in the Palace House Stakes at
Newmarket last time. May have come on a bit for
that run, but needs to raise his game to enter
serious reckoning in this race. RATING 95
489-01 Sole Power 56 8 9-8 Edward Lynam
One of the best sprinters of recent years and has
virtually swept all before him in Group races. Was
beaten by G Force in Sprint Cup last season, but
was left short of room at a vital moment in that
race and has since won the Grade 1 Al Quoz
sprint at Meydan, Dubai, at the end of March. It's
hard not to see him being the one to beat in this
slight drop in grade.
RATING 100
============================================

NOTEBOOK.

GRIZZLY BEAR
, a two-year-old son of Kodiac out of
a Speightstown mare, made a solid racing debut
when third of seven runners, beaten less than four
lengths, in a 5f Leicester maiden last Monday
evening. Trained by Jeremy Noseda, he looked as
though he would come on for the experience and
possibly for running over further, particularly as one
from a family with a record of producing winners
over distances between 7f and 1m+.
A similar comment applies to Grizzly Bear's fellow
debutant in the same race, the Mark Johnston-
trained
MINIATURIST
, who's related to a 12f winner
but showed plenty of pace over the minimum trip
in this first race outing and should win his maiden
in due course, if probably over 6f or further.
At Towcester, the Charlie Longsdon-trained
SIMPLY
THE WEST
showed promise on his first start over
fences, in the 2m 6f novices' chase, finishing within
four lengths of the odds-on winner, who was rated 10lb
the superior of Simply The West according to their
hurdling form. This was despite Simply The West's rider
having to untangle his mounts reins from the tack after
his mount pecked at the fourth and he then dropped
his whip in the process, which could have made a
sizeable difference on the stiff run-in at Towcester.
There will be other days for Simply The West.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

Last Saturday's racing proved to be quite tough for
punters, but we were pleased to have picked the winner
of the Irish Guineas and a couple of placed horses in
other races. We look ahead eagerly to this Saturday's
racing, with Channel 4 televising selected races from
Haydock (2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45), Newmarket (2.45
and 3.20) and York (1.45, 2.20 and 2.55).
One to watch out for (as ever) this Saturday is Ryan
Moore, who is in red-hot form at the moment, having
ridden more winners than anybody else (7) in the
week ending Monday, 25 May. Moore's tally is just
one clear of three riders, Franny Norton, Pat
Cosgrave and Paul Mulrennan, with only Norton
(30%) coming close to Moore's 33% winning strike
rate. Of the Flat trainers, Mark Johnston's North
Yorkshire team are in great form, with 11 winners
from 23 runners in the past week, which equates to
a 47% strike rate. Richard Hannon came closest to
Johnston by wins (7), ahead of David O'Meara (5).
The first of the televised races from Haydock is the
Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes (2.00), for mares and fillies.
Luca Cumani's
KLEO
is interesting. She was a good
staying-on second on her seasonal debut, over 9f at
Newmarket, and her trainer has a great 24% strike
rate in the past 14 days.
TALMADA
, trained by Roger
Varian (25 wins and 28% strike rate at this course in
past five seasons), could play a role, on account of her
second in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York's May
meeting a fortnight ago. The 2.35 is the Group 3 Jury
Stakes, a 7f race for older horses. Roger Varian's
ALJAMAAHEER
wasn't disgraced when eighth in a hot
renewal of the Lockinge three weeks ago and he could
have sharpened for the run a touch. David Simcock's
BRETON ROCK
also ran well in the Lockinge and his
horses are in good form at the moment (16% winners
last 14 days) and is 5 from 9 (56%) over distance. At
3.10, the Listed Achilles Stakes, a 5f sprint, looks
competitive, but
MUTHMIR
, a progressive handicapper
last season who ran well when fifth in the Duke Of York
Stakes on his Group race debut two weeks ago, could
figure in this race; his trainer Willie Haggas has a 32%
strike rate at this course in the past five seasons and
the drop back to 5f may help Muthmir. Henry Candy's
MUSIC MASTER
could also go well, having run well at
this course last year when third in the Group 1 Sprint
Cup and is 3 from 6 on the expected good ground. The
3.45 at Haydock is yet another Group race, the Group
2 Sandy Lane Stakes.
DICK WHITTINGTON
, a Group 1
winner over 6f last season, catches the eye dropped
back to that distance by trainer Aidan O'Brien, though
Henry Candy's
LIMATO
arguably has fewer questions to
answer and may improve again, following his Group 3
win at Ascot last month.
At Newmarket, the 2.45, the Listed Fairway Stakes
(1m 2f) could help
NAFAAQA
to get back on track,
providing he settles better than he did in the Dante
Stakes last time. He is a class horse with winning
form on the expected good to firm ground, while
Richard Hannon's
MOHEET
looked in need of further
than a mile when finishing a respectable third in the
Craven Stakes and eighth in the Guineas. At 3.20,
the Class 2, 1m 4f handicap could be where Ed
Vaughan's
ADVENTURE SEEKER
bounces back to form,
having run one of his best races to date when second
in a heritage handicap over course and distance last
October. James Tate's
URBAN CASTLE
won over course
and distance four week ago, but was disqualified and
demoted to second. He only went up 2lb and could
still have further improvement in him.
York's three televised races kick off at 1.45 with the
Class 2 handicap over 7f. Trainer David O'Meara is
having a good season and his top-weighted charge
LOUIS THE PIOUS
returns to handicap company for the
first time in three starts, and also his preferred good
to firm ground for the first time since winning the Ayr
Gold Cup. His stablemate
AL KHAN
has come good this
season, winning his last two starts and looks to be
heading the right way. The 2.20 is a 1m 6f Listed race
in which Hughie Morrison's
VENT DE FORCE
could go
well, having finished second in an Ascot Group 3 race
over 2m, on good-firm ground (same expected at York).
Nicky Henderson's Flat runners are always worth a
second glance and
FORGOTTEN VOICE
was second at
this level on his first run on the Flat of last year. Among
the numerous entrants for the 2.55, a Class 2
handicap sprint, Tim Easterby's in-form
CAPTAIN DUNNE
looks worthy of consideration after winning his last
race in good style, has won 4 times on the ground and
5 times over distance. Brian Ellison can also spring the
odd surprise and his improving charge
CANNY KOOL
enjoys a useful weight allowance as a three-year-old,
which may negate this step up in class.
================================================


RACE RATING.

2.45 Newmarket - Saturday, 30 May
Fairway Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m 2f


1- Consort 246 3 Sir Michael Stoute
We've been waiting to see this horse out since
his emphatic maiden win at Newmarket last
autumn. He made all and quickened clear of a
decent field, who have gone on to win plenty of
races, including Mubtaahij, winner of the UAE
Derby. Consort holds all the big entries, but he
is reputedly a lazy sort at home, so is bound to
improve for today's run. RATING 99
7235-7 Faithful Creek 63 3 Brian Meehan
He was the winner of an Epsom maiden last July
before going on to be placed in a Listed race at
Deauville and a Group 3 at Leopardstown.
Clearly a useful sort, he finished well down the
field in the UAE Derby at Meydan, so drops down
in grade here today. Has worn blinkers, so may
lack the improvement of some of his opposition.
RATING 93
16 Glan Y Gors 8 3 Miss Gay Kelleway
Took punters by surprise by winning on his debut
at Pontefract at 25/1 earlier this season. This
well-related son of High Chaparral looked slightly
outclassed when stepping up in grade at
Goodwood last week, and is a struggle to fancy
here. RATING 90
74-46 Haalan 22 3 Clive Brittain
She remains a maiden, having been quite
highly tried to date. Her best run was when
finishing fourth in an Ascot conditions race in
April. She was unable to fulfil that promise when
dropped back into a fillies' maiden at Chester's
May meeting, although the soft ground may
have proved responsible. Unlikely winner.
RATING 89
1-38 Moheet 28 3 Richard Hannon
Moheet won his maiden at Salisbury by
seven lengths, which put him in many
punters' notebooks. He finished third in the
Craven Stakes in April, when looking slightly
in need of the experience, as he was slowly
away. He ran a reasonable race in the
Guineas, finishing eighth to Gleneagles, after
again being awkward leaving the stalls,
causing jockey Frankie Dettori to lose an iron.
This race looks a great opportunity for
Moheet to get his career back on track today,
with the son of High Chaparral bound to
appreciate the step up to 1m 2f.
RATING 100
721-6 Mustadeen 45 3 Brian Meehan
He improved throughout 2014 to win his third race
at Sandown over 7f. He was subsequently
described by his trainer as a 'very, very good
horse', but he failed to reappear later that season.
His comeback run in the Fielden Stakes was quite
disappointing, as he finished sixth of seven,
appearing not to stay the 9f distance. Whilst he
appears a good, progressive horse, he looks
unlikely to stay 10f in our opinion. RATING 92
112-24 Nafaaqa 16 3 Barry Hills
Nafaaqa boasted some excellent juvenile form,
winning his maiden and a Listed race before
finishing second to Elm Park in the Royal Lodge
stakes. He finished second in the Craven stakes
(Moheet third) and fourth in the Dante Stakes at
York over today's trip. He was beaten a very long
way in a strong renewal of the Dante, causing us
to think that our first choice, Moheet, may have
improved more than Nafaaqa this season.
RATING 97
153-12 Peacock 45 3 Richard Hannon
Owned by the Queen, this horse won on his
debut at Newmarket over 6f last autumn, before
finishing third to Nafaaqa in a Listed race at
Doncaster's St Leger meeting. He won on his
seasonal debut at Kempton on the all weather,
when odds-on in a conditions race. He then
finished second in the Fielden Stakes despite
being hampered when making his challenge.
Peacock is clearly a decent horse and looks
pretty likely to finish in the frame. RATING 98
1235-0 Room Key 28 3 Eve Johnson Houghton
This horse won a Salisbury maiden before
progressing to finish third to Highland Reel in the
Vintage Stakes at Goodwood as a juvenile.
Room Key finished just sixteenth in the 2,000
Guineas, with more improvement necessary if
he is to make an impact at this level. RATING 90
225-33 Sharp Sailor 38 3 Marco Botti
Sharp Sailor won a Lingfield maiden last August,
and has been placed on both starts this season.
He was a six-length third to Christophermarlowe
in the Epsom Derby Trial last time out,
suggesting that he may have to improve a little
to beat the more progressive horses opposing
him here. RATING 95
7115-3 Snoano 36 3 John Gosden
Won a Sandown maiden and a Newbury
conditions race as a juvenile, but was well
beaten in the Racing Post Trophy. He finished
third of four in the Sandown Classic Trial in April,
when possibly not suited by the ease in the
ground. Probably a decent horse on fast ground,
but proof required before he becomes a betting
proposition. RATING 94
17-844 Tanaaf 23 3 Mike de Kock
Won a Newmarket maiden last August before
running down the field in a conditions race and a
Listed race at Meydan back in February. Tanaaf
ran a better race when returning to GB to finish
fourth in the valuable Tattersalls Millions Trophy,
before disappointing in the Chester Vase, when
possibly not suited by the soft ground. More
improvement needed. RATING 96
=========================================


NOTEBOOK.

Sir Mark Prescott has a habit of running up a
sequence with his beloved handicappers, with
HIGH SECRET
flying the Heath House flag
recently. He has already won 4 races since last
September, but can add to this based on his
recent Chelmsford victory. The son of High
Chaparral has been raised just 2lbs by the
handicapper after this win, so I'm sure it won't be
long before Sir Mark has him out to battle again.
It was difficult not to be impressed by William
Haggas'
STORM THE STARS
at Goodwood last
week. The son of Sea The Stars made up for his
defeat by Hans Holbein at Chester by winning
the last recognised Derby Trial of the year. Whilst
he is probably not up to Epsom standard, he
stays well and has a good attitude, as he made
all and stayed on well to hold off the favourite,
Best Of Times. He looks a thorough stayer and
could make up into a St Leger type later in the
season. He is probably suited by some cut in the
ground.
James Fanshawe's
SPEEDY BOARDING
could
prove good to follow in handicaps after
registering her maiden victory at Goodwood last
week. Speedy Boarding confirmed the promise
of her debut third-place at Doncaster last
season by beating the 76-rated Journey by half
a length. The handicapper surely can't punish
her too much, even though the first and second
finished six lengths clear of the remainder.
There are more races to be won with the
daughter of Shamardal over 10f this season.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

Last week proved a slightly disappointing one for
this feature, as the best result from the horses that
ran was a decent priced third place on a tricky
looking card. Channel 4 Racing focuses solely on
the Epsom Derby Meeting this Saturday, with five
live races starting at 2.00. The Channel also shows
the 2.35, 3.10, 3.45 and 4.30 races.
In the past week, jockeys Paul Hanagan and Richard
Hughes have been very successful, riding 8 and 7
winners respectively at a decent strike rate. Rider
Harry Bentley has boasted the best percentage,
however, winning on 5 rides from 11 mounts last
week. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has really hit top
gear now, training 5 winners from his 13 runners last
week. The Richard Hannon stable is as prolific as
ever, winning with 9 horses last week at 27%.
In the 2.00, a 1m 2f handicap, trainer Mark
Johnston (5/31 last week) is represented by the
hat-trick seeking
RESONANT
. He has won his last
two races in fine style, adopting the front running
tactics that we associate with Johnston runners. He
should be effective over this unusual course, as his
follow-up win was at Goodwood last time out, which
has similar cambers and characteristics. Sir
Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last
ten years and may run
STRAVAGANTE
here. The
son of Rip Van Winkle is open to plenty of
improvement, based on his third-place behind
Derby-fancy Jack Hobbs at Sandown first time out
in April. He was an impressive winner at Newcastle
last season, and should be suited by a competitive
race run at a decent pace.
The Richard Hannon stable (father and son) have
won the 2.35 Listed Woodcote stakes for the last
two years, and may run
AGE OF EMPIRE
here, after
an emphatic win at York last weekend. The son of
Royal Applause stepped up from his Newmarket
debut and could reappear quickly to continue the
fine run of the stable's juveniles. Northern trainer
Richard Fahey (12 juvenile winners from 62 runners
this season) is represented by
JEANIE'S PLACE
,
who romped home at Thirsk three weeks ago. The
daughter of Compton Place was slowly away, but
rocketed home once the penny had dropped,
earning her a tilt at some black type today.
The first feature race of the day is the 3.10,
Coronation Cup. There are a disappointing seven
entries, with French trained horses currently
occupying the head of the betting. Andre Fabre
runs the busy jet-setter,
FLINTSHIRE
, who finished
second in this race behind Cirrus Des Aigles last
season. He has finished second on his last two
runs to
DOLNIYA
, who is currently a very short price
for this race. Dolniya has improved over the winter,
winning her last two starts at Chantilly and the
Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan. Flintshire has
experience on the course and could be a better
value bet.
The "Dash" is next at 3.45 and looks a lottery, as it
is run on the fastest 5f course in the country, and
usually has plenty of runners.
HUMIDOR
is a 5f
specialist and has been dropped in the weights
having finished last over 6f last time out. He won a
void race over course and distance last season and
could prove a reasonable fun bet. The same could
be said of David Elsworth's
BURNING THREAD
,
who ran well at Nottingham last week after being
badly hampered at the start. He is 3lbs lower than
when winning at Ayr last summer and has a chance
at a decent price.
Finally, at 4.30, the most cherished prize of all, the
Epsom Derby. We were most taken with
GOLDEN
HORN
when he won the Dante Stakes, and hope he
should give jockey Frankie Dettori his second Derby
victory. He is a well balanced horse with more
improvement left, and certainly looks as though he
will stay, despite doubts from his owner/breeder.
Nearly every other entry has a blemish of some sort
on their CV. From an each way perspective, the
French-trained
EPICURIS
could provide some value
at a decent price. He will hopefully appreciate the
better ground at Epsom than he is used to, and will
be assisted by his private stalls handler, as he failed
to load last time out.
===========================================================


RACE RATING - DERBY.

11--12 Best Of Times 15 3 Saeed bin Suroor
Won a Listed race at Newmarket on his
reappearance, but had no answer for Storm The
Stars in a trial at Goodwood last month. The son
of Dubawi is clearly a decent horse, but his level
of form doesn't quite shape up today. RATING 90
5530 Carbon Dating 14 3 J P Shanahan
He is a highly tried maiden with little conceivable
chance here. RATING 80
11-3 Elm Park 23 3 Andrew Balding
Boasts some of the best form on offer, having
won the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy last season.
He ran pretty well to finish third in the Dante,
behind Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs. He ran too
freely that day, which the trainer assures us was
just freshness. We feel he is better with some
decent cut in the ground, but should still be good
enough to make the frame. He is tough and has
plenty of racing experience. RATING 99
111-2 Epicuris 61 3 Criquette Head-Maarek (Fr)
Missed his intended trial last month as he failed
to enter the stalls. Impressive winner of the
Criterium de Saint Cloud last season, proving
himself to be a tough horse that stays well. If he
adapts to the better ground and copes with the
occasion, he could be a decent priced outsider.
Will have help from expert handler Nicholas
Blondeau down at the start. RATING 98
31-2 Giovanni Canaletto 13 3 Aidan O'Brien
Won a Leopardstown maiden as a 2yo, earning
him some interest for this year's Classics. He was
surprisingly beaten, however, in the Gallinule
Stakes, carrying his head awkwardly high when
put under pressure. He is clearly a decent horse,
but needs to improve to win this. RATING 91
4-211 Hans Holbein 30 3 Aidan O'Brien
Created a good impression when winning the
Chester Vase, ploughing through the soft ground
to beat Storm The Stars. He looks a tough sort
with a good attitude and could be O'Brien's best
chance. That may only be good enough for a
top-six finish, however. RATING 96
1-12 Jack Hobbs 23 3 John Gosden
Won a Sandown handicap on his seasonal debut
by 12 lengths, which promoted him to favouritism
for this race. He then went on to finish second to
his stable-mate, Golden Horn, in the Dante, which
was still a decent performance. He is a tall, rangy
horse that may not handle the course, despite
working on the track last week. Golden Horn's
new jockey, Frankie Dettori, says Jack Hobbs is
the one he fears the most. RATING 97
96-11 Kilimanjaro 30 3 Aidan O'Brien
Won the Lingfield Derby Trial on his last run.
Jockey Ryan Moore was impressed by the horse's
attitude, as he had to make up plenty of ground
in the straight. He has to show improvement to
win this however, with winners of the
Lingfield Trial having a poor record in this race.
RATING 92
1-38 Moheet 35 3 Richard Hannon
Moheet was favourite for the Craven on his
seasonal debut, but he could only finish third to
his stable-mate, Kool Kompany. He ran
respectably in the 2,000 Guineas last time out,
after receiving a bump exiting the dip. He is a
decent horse, but will find easier races than this
to open his account for the season. RATING 90
41-143 Rocky Rider 35 3 Andrew Balding
Started favourite for the Tattersalls Millions Race
earlier this year after a successful winter on the
all weather, but could only finish third. He finished
behind Best Of Times in a Listed race last time
out, which puts him behind quite a few of these
on form. RATING 89
115 Rogue Runner 34 3 Andreas Wolher (Ger)
Has won twice in his native Germany, but was
shown up when stepped up to Group 3 company
last month. That form would suggest that he
won't be good enough to win this. RATING 88
1-11 Golden Horn 23 3 John Gosden
Golden Horn has won both the Feilden
Stakes at Newmarket and the Dante Stakes
at York this season. He was most impressive
at York, and appears to have no blemishes
whatsoever, other than a suggestion from his
breeder that he might not stay the distance.
He is the standout form horse, in our opinion.
RATING 100
2-5121 Storm The Stars 15 3 William Haggas
Consistent and improving son of Sea The Stars
won a Listed trial at Goodwood last time, beating
Best Of Times. He had previously been beaten by
Hans Holbein at Chester, when probably unsuited
by the soft ground. He was described by the
trainer's wife after winning at Goodwood as
'immature', which would suggest that he could be
more of a St Leger type. RATING 94
15-111 Success Days 27 3 Ken Condon
He has made up into a really decent horse,
overturning John F Kennedy in the Ballysax
Stakes before landing the Derrinstown Derby Trial
by 10 lengths last time out. The only off-putting
thing is that all of his form is on heavy ground,
and that soft ground is considered very important
by his trainer, which he is unlikely to receive.
RATING 93
1-1 Zawrak 55 3 Dermot Weld
We've given this horse plenty of thought, and
have decided the only reason he is second
favourite is because his usually quiet trainer,
Dermot Weld, is being so bullish about him. He
has run just twice, on easy tracks, has never run
on good ground or in a very competitive race.
There are plenty of negatives surrounding him,
making him poor value, taking his experience into
account. If he does win, he must be a very special
horse indeed. Rating based on respect for the
trainer. RATING 95
================================================


NOTEBOOK.

You may have noted that every time
CONSORT
has been entered this season, we've tipped him
for the race. He proved to be worth the wait last
week when running away with the Listed Heron
Stakes at Sandown last Thursday. He was keen
and met trouble in running, but still bounded
clear inside the last quarter of a mile. We've
heard that he is a lazy sort at home, so is sure
to improve for the race and looks likely to appear
at Royal Ascot later this month. He holds an
entry in the St James Palace Stakes, but the
Tercentenary Stakes may be the more appealing
option. He looks sure to stay a mile and quarter
in time, though the way he quickened at
Sandown was very impressive. Another Stoute
inmate,
HORSESHOE BAY
caught the eye when
winning a maiden in some style at Newmarket
last week. The son of Arch looks a big, imposing
horse, and clearly appreciated the step up to a
mile and half, winning by seven lengths. He
looks a thorough stayer, suited by fast ground,
and could be interesting next time out in a
handicap. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him
stepped up in trip in time.
LIBBARD
ran in the
same race, finishing second for Roger Charlton.
She was making her seasonal debut, and looked
as though she would improve for the run, in the
paddock. She set a reasonable pace under
Richard Hughes, but looked to blow up coming
out of the dip, allowing the race-fit Horseshoe
Bay to take over. It would be no surprise to see
the daughter of Galileo win an average maiden
next time out before going handicapping for the
in-form Charlton stable

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

We were pleased to bag a brace of winners (13/8
and 7/2) at last Saturday's Epsom Derby meeting.
We hope the stats will lead us to further winners this
Saturday, with Channel 4 televising selected races
from Musselburgh (3.25), Sandown (1.45, 2.20 and
2.55) and York (2.00, 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45).
The form jockey of the week (to Monday, 8 June)
was undoubtedly Silvestre De Sousa, whose 8
winners put him 3 wins clear of several colleagues,
and his 21% strike rate was only (of those jockeys
to have ridden 4+ winners in period) narrowly
beaten by James Doyle (22%). Top trainer was
Yorkshire's Mick Easterby, whose 6 winners from 13
rides equated to a fabulous 46% strike rate, putting
him clear of his closest rivals, the in-form Mark
Johnston (5 winners), Willie Haggas (26%) and Ruth
Carr (22%).
Musselburgh's Scottish Sprint Cup looks typically
competitive and, unsurprisingly, favourites have a
poor record in recent editions of this race. Nor does
there appear to be any trend by weight carried. Only
two trainers have won the race more than once in
the past decade; Bryan Smart and Tim Easterby,
though only the former did it with two different
horses. Of Easterby's entrants,
MAPPIN' TIME
looks
the likeliest to fare well, with Smart's
MEADWAY
unexposed at this level and worth a look in the
betting and one who should like the quickish ground
expected. Another to consider is Michael Dods's
DESERT LAW
, who bounced back to form with
cheekpieces reapplied last time and is better off at
the weights with some rivals in this race compared
to their previous encounters.
At Sandown, the 1.45, a 1m 1f handicap, could be a
good opportunity for Willie Haggas's unexposed
AWESOME POWER
, given the trainer’s excellent
current form and decent course strike rate (20%) in
the past five seasons. Sir Michael Stoute has a good
record in this race in recent years and he has several
entrants who are all worthy of consideration, chief
among whom is probably
MUSTAAQEEM
, who was
staying on well when winning over 1m last time and
has the benefit of a recent run compared to a few.
The 2.20 is a 1m 14y handicap which could go the
way of Mark Johnston's
MISTER UNIVERSE
, a really
taking colt who was second in a Listed race at Epsom
last time and if up to running again only eight days
later, could make good use of his weight concession
as a three-year-old relative to the older horses (four
and upwards) in this race. Another three-year-old to
consider is Sir Michael Stoute's
QUICK DEFENCE
,
while Keith Dalgleish's team are in good form (17%
last 14 days) and
JACOB BLACK
is progressive and
won over course and distance last time. The last of
the televised races from Sandown is the 2.55, the
Listed Scurry Stakes, over 5f. Clive Cox's
PROFITABLE
will carry a 3lb penalty for his Listed win last time, but
arguably has the best form to date of all the entrants,
while John Gosden's
WAADY
deserves another
chance after things didn't go to plan for him in his last
race. Both horses look progressive.
York kicks off with a lady amateur riders' handicap
at 2.00. Trainer Les Eyre's
MARMION
is less
exposed than many in this race, has a weight
allowance as a three-year-old and could go well at
a price. Another who may be ahead of the
handicapper is Brian Ellison's
APTERIX
, who won
over distance on similar ground at Thirsk (like York,
flat and left-handed) two starts ago, while John
Quinn's
PEARL CASTLE
was only beaten two
lengths over course and distance last year, and
carries 1lb less for this race. The 2.35 is a 7f
handicap in which Saeed Bin Suroor's (19% last 14
days)
CLASSIC WIN
is an interesting contender,
having won his only start to date, over distance.
Mark Johnston's
MISTER UNIVERSE
is also entered
in this race (and in the 3.10), as is George Baker's
improving
FIFTYSHADESOFGREY
. The Listed
Ganton Stakes at 3.10 has possibilities for James
Fanshawe's
HORS DE COMBAT
, who drops in class
after running respectably in the Lockinge last time,
along with Richard Hannon's
BALTIC KNIGHT
, a
former course and distance winner who was
rejuvenated by headgear when not beaten far in a
Group 3 race last time. The 3.45 is a Class 2
handicap sprint for three-year-olds. Henry Candy's
unbeaten
TWILIGHT SON
catches the eye, thanks
to three wins over distance, while Martyn Meade's
SCALZO
is also heading the right way, having won
on his handicap debut, over distance, last time.

=====================================================
RACE RATING.

2.55 Sandown - Saturday, 13 June

111-7 Elysian Flyer 28 3 Richard Hannon
Unbeaten record ended when upped in
class for a 6f Listed race at Newbury on
his seasonal debut last time. May have
needed the run, but has something to
prove at this level once again. RATING 94
201-40 Encore D ́Or 28 3 Ralph Beckett
Ran a solid race when fourth in the
Tattersalls 3yo Sprint at Newmarket's
Craven meeting in April, but was behind in
the Newbury Listed race in which Elysian
Flyer finished seventh and Waady finished
fourth. Plenty to do here. RATING 90
1- Likely 383 3 David Barron
From a yard that does well with its
sprinters and that won this race three
years ago. Has ability, according to easy
win on sole start to date, when beating a
decent yardstick into second at Carlisle
(runner-up later ran in Group company),
but has been out of action since then.
That's a possible negative, but watch
markets for signs of confidence.
RATING 97
21230 Merdon Castle 45 3 David Elsworth
Arguably didn't stay 6f in a Group 3 at
Ascot last time, though being hampered
late on wouldn't have helped. Previous
form, in the context of this race, was
worthy, but probably just short of what is
required here and others look open to
more improvement or have better claims
through existing form. RATING 96
16-786 Miss Mullberry 22 3 David O ́Meara
Interesting on close sixth in Ayr Listed race
last September (Squats third), but recent
form looks a little underwhelming and
others readily preferred, despite trainer's
decent form this season. RATING 92
0-5861 Mukhmal 14 3 Mark Johnston
Yard in great form but this son of
Bahamian Bounty has dropped back to
handicaps after running respectably in
defeat in sales, Group and conditions
races last season. Won a 6f handicap at
Newmarket last time, and not hard to see
him trying to grind it out from the front in
this race, but probably lacks the class to
see it through. RATING 93
225-51 Profitable 30 3 Clive Cox
Probably ran best race to date when
accounting for a notable scalp last time,
beating the much-fancied Tendu in a 5f
Listed race at York. Maybe needs to
progress a little to have a major chance of
winning this race, but has among the best
form on offer, if left with something to find
with Waady, who beat him at Sandown in
April. RATING 99
71-6 Rathaath 14 3 Brian Meehan
Oasis Dream filly who won over distance
at Bath on second of two starts last year.
Probably better than bare form of race last
time, when slowly away at Chester over 6f,
fading late on. May have needed the run,
but unexposed, if needing to step up
significantly to enter serious reckoning.
RATING 92
63-807 Rosie ́s Premiere 29 3 Dean Ivory
Stable in very good form at moment and
this daughter of Showcasing was heading
the right way last year, just beating
Profitable in a handicap, but form then
levelled out and she has been slightly
below-par, so far this season. Others
preferred. RATING 90
6-5305 Something Lucky 22 3 Kristin Stubbs
Behind Rosie's Premiere when towards the
rear in a 5f York handicap in May. Looks
likely to be outclassed in this company.
RATING 89
4-6554 Squats 71 3 William Haggas
Beat Profitable twice in handicaps last
season and was third in a Listed race at
Ayr. However, Profitable has improved
since then and Squats is held by Merdon
Castle on two bits of form and no reason
to see why tables should be turned in this
race. RATING 94
45035- Union Rose 260 3 Ronald Harris
Caught the eye when second in Royal
Ascot’s Listed Windsor Castle Stakes (5f)
at 100/1 last summer, and finished third
to Squats in a 5f Ascot handicap last
September. Ended season when a held
fifth to Rosie's Premiere at Haydock, over
5f, and has work to do here on seasonal
debut. RATING 91
112431 Wanting 22 3 Charlie Appleby
Consistent daughter of Acclamation who
ran her best race to date last time when
winning a 5f handicap sprint at Haydock.
Has more on her plate here, but yard is
having a good season and she makes
some each-way appeal. RATING 97
423-24 Zeb Un Nisa 30 3 Roger Charlton
Daughter of Iffraaj who has stepped up on
progressive form of last season to finish a
two-length second to Waady at Sandown
in April and then fourth to Profitable in a
Listed race at York. That's decent, solid
form, if leaving her with something to find
with the likeliest market principals.
RATING 98
391-15 Zuhoor Baynoona 30 3 Richard Fahey
Won a Listed race at Bath on seasonal
debut before finishing fifth behind
Profitable and Zeb Un Nisa at York last
time. Has won three from five over
distance and quickish ground should suit
so is maybe one for each-way fans.
RATING 96
51-114 Waady 28 3 John Gosden
Didn't get the best of starts last time,
when fourth in a Newbury Listed race,
ahead of Elysian Flyer and Encore D'Or,
but previous form suggests this son of
Approve is generally heading the right way
and should be thereabouts.
RATING 100

===================================================


RACING NEWS.

Un Temps Pour Tout made all to win the
French Champion Hurdle for trainer David
Pipe last weekend at Auteuil. The horse was
returning to his homeland two years after
being sold through the ring for a massive
€450,000 two years ago. Not deterred by
the fact that his last win came in a novices'
hurdle at Ascot in February, jockey James
Reveley sent the gelding to the front
straight away and was never challenged.
Hurricane Fly started favourite, but never
travelled under Ruby Walsh. His stable-
mate, the evergreen Thousand Stars, ran his
usual excellent race at the Parisian venue
to finish runner-up under Katie Walsh, with
Paul Nicholls's Zarkandar back in third.
Jockey Frankie Dettori hailed Golden Horn's
emphatic Derby win as the highlight of his 28-
year career. He rates the son of Cape Cross
as 'as good as I've ridden', and compares the
occasion favourably over his 'Magnificent
Seven' at Ascot in the 1990s. John Gosden
trained both the first and second, with Jack
Hobbs running an excellent race to finish
runner up. Golden Horn now heads to the
Eclipse Stakes at Sandown next month,
where he is likely to start favourite.
American Pharaoh became the twelfth
winner of the US Triple Crown by winning
the Belmont Stakes last weekend. Thirteen
horses have failed to win the New York
feature since Affirmed last won the Triple
Crown in 1978, having won the Kentucky
Derby and the Preakness, but failed in the
'Test of a Champion' at Belmont. Trainer
Bob Baffert had trained three of these
horses before; Real Quiet, Silver Charm and
War Emblem, and 43-year-old jockey, Victor
Espinoza, had twice been in with a chance
prior to last Saturday's race, including last
year with California Chrome. Surprisingly,
jockeys allowed Espinoza an easy lead on
the odds-on favourite, who was never
challenged, winning in the sixth-fastest
time in Belmont history.
Jockey Pat Dobbs enjoyed his biggest win to
date in the Coronation Cup at Epsom aboard
Pethers Moon. Trainer Richard Hannon has
elected to offer his other jockeys big-race
experience in the season leading up to the
retirement of regular jockey, Richard Hughes,
and was duly repaid with a phenomenal ride
from the 37-year-old to beat the odds-on shot,
Dolniya. Her rider, Christophe Soumillon, set
a very slow pace in a tactical four-runner
event, which then became a sprint for the
line.
Aidan O'Brien trained his fifth Oaks winner
with 50/1 outsider Qualify touching off
Legatissimo on the line at Epsom. In a
rough race, Ryan Moore's 1,000 Guineas
winner, Legatissimo, looked certain to win
a furlong from home, but could not repel the
late challenge of Qualify under Colm
O'Donoghue. The winner was making the
tenth start of her career, having finished
well beaten in the 1,000 Guineas at
Newmarket and The Curragh.
Roger Charlton has stated that his star horse,
Al Kazeem, will not be running through the
summer due to an injury picked up when
winning the Tattersalls Gold Cup last month.
He hopes to have the son of Dubawi back on
the course in the autumn, once he has a
chance to fully recover.
Trainer Peter Makin is to retire at the end of
the season, after 48 years as a licensed
trainer. The trainer has stated that
travelling from evening meetings late into
the night has become tiring now that he is
into his seventies. His estate, near
Marlborough, had previously been home to
the legendary Sir Gordon Richards and Bill
Marshall, and may soon be put up for sale.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.
This column enjoyed a stellar Saturday last
week, with the stats-influenced tips yielding no
fewer than four winners (including at very nice
prices - 12/1, 15/2, 5/1 and 11/4) and three
seconds. We also had a one-two in the 2.00 at
York, the Exacta payout for which was £119.40
per £1 stake!
Hopefully, our form will remain on side for this
Saturday, when all the Channel 4-televised
action centres on the final day of Royal Ascot.
The Flat form of the last seven days (to
Monday, 15 June) finds Richard Hughes and
Ryan Moore to be in top form in the run-up to
Royal Ascot, where they are both expected to
have plenty of rides (and winners). Hughes
rode 7 winners to Moore's 6, though the latter
had a slightly superior 20% strike rate, if
bettered by the 33% of Ben Curtis and 25% of
James Doyle. Richard Hannon won more races
than any other British-based trainer in the
period, with 8 winners to nearest rival Mark
Johnston's 6, while Sir Michael Stoute (36%),
Roger Varian and Willie Haggas (33.33% each)
had the leading strike rates.
The first of the televised races is the Listed
Chesham Stakes, over 7f, at 2.30pm. Irish trainer
Aidan O'Brien has won this race once in the past
decade, and he has a couple of lively options in
BALLYDOYLE
and
DEAUVILLE
, while perhaps the
best chance of a British-trained winner is Willie
Haggas's
TUTU NGURU
, who won going away on
her debut last time and her trainer is in great form
at the moment (32% last 14 days). The 3.05 is
the Wolferton Stakes, a 1m 2f Listed handicap.
John Gosden's unbeaten
MAHSOOB
(also
entered 3.40) catches the eye, having twice won
over distance, with Andrew Balding's
COLLABORATION
(winner over distance and
ground) another possible improver, while Saeed
Bin Suroor's (33% last 14 days)
FIRST FLIGHT
was narrowly beaten by Mahsoob recently and
has a nice pull at the weights in this race.
The Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes is at 3.40, and has
been won 5 times in the past decade by a runner
of Sir Michael Stoute. He could saddle leading
fancy
TELESCOPE
, who is the pick of Stoute's
three entrants and the one to beat on official
ratings, and won this race last year. Luca Cumani's
POSTPONED
could be a viable alternative through
his half-length third behind the top-class Al
Kazeem last time, and is expected to improve for
the step back up in trip to 1m 4f. The 4.20 race is
the Group 1 sprint, the Diamond Jubilee Stakes,
in which David O'Meara's
G FORCE
could bounce
back after having bad luck in running last time. He
has already won at this level and is probably better
over 6f than the 5f he raced over last time.
Australian raider
BRAZEN BEAU
also has top-
class form down under and could go well in a race
frequently targeted by his compatriots. Another to
consider is Aidan O'Brien's
DUE DILLIGENCE
who
was second in this race last year and could go well
at a price on his best form.
The big 6f handicap of the day is the Wokingham
Stakes, at 5.00. David O'Meara's progressive
ALGAR LAD
has seemed to be one step ahead
of the handicapper thus far, although he faces
his biggest task to date in this race. Kevin Ryan's
BLAINE
is interesting through his third in the Ayr
Gold Cup last season and is at a similar rating
for this race. David Lanigan's
INTERCEPTION
has been consistent in Listed races lately and
looks one on the upgrade. The final race from
Royal Ascot, is the 5.30, the Queen Alexandra
Stakes, a 2m 5f conditions race in which Andrew
Balding's
HAVANA BEAT
has the best form,
while Sir Mark Prescott's improving
WILLIAM OF
ORANGE
has been making hay over these sorts
of distances in handicaps, and is less exposed
than some.
================================================


RACE RATINGS.
3.40 Royal Ascot - Saturday, 20 June
Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) 1m4f

1414-4 Eagle Top 23 4 9-1 John Gosden
Won the King Edward VII Stakes at this meeting
last year, beating the top-class Adelaide in the
process. Probably ran to a similar level a few
weeks later when fourth, beaten less than five
lengths, over course and distance, by the
outstanding Taghrooda. Probably needed the
run a touch and was outpaced when
reappearing over 10f this year, in a Group 3 at
Sandown. Step back up in trip should help and
could go well in this race. RATING 97
2120-6 Gatewood 35 7 9-1 John Gosden
Consistent performer in Listed and Group 3
races over this sort of distance, though form to
date suggests a bit of cut in the ground wouldn't
go amiss. Good ground expected for this race
and has a fair amount to find with the likely
principal players here. RATING 94
22211- Hillstar 244 5 9-1 Sir Michael Stoute
Second in this race last year, beaten seven
lengths by his highly-regarded stable-mate
Telescope. Despite landing his first top-flight win
since then, in the Grade 1 Canadian
International Stakes at Woodbine last October,
there’s no obvious reason why he should turn
tables in this race, particularly as he lacks a
recent run. RATING 96
266-41 Kingfisher 15 4 9-1 A P O ́Brien
Won the Listed Dee Stakes last season en route
to finishing second in the Irish Derby, behind
Australia. Looked held in all those good middle-
distance races last season, if not disgraced, but
enjoyed something of a penalty kick when
winning a Listed race over 1m 6f at
Leopardstown last time. Probably not good
enough to land a blow in this company.
RATING 93
1-11 Mahsoob 38 4 9-1 John Gosden
Unexposed and unbeaten improver who has not
looked back since winning a 1m maiden at
Kempton at the backend of last season. Latest
victory came in 10f Class 2 handicap at York's
May meeting, which was probably fair form, but
more required here. Watch markets for signs of
confidence. RATING 95
311-23 Postponed 27 4 9-1 Luca Cumani
Finished third to the decent Cannock Chase in
the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes at this meeting
last year, before winning a 1m 2f Listed race and
then the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York's Ebor
meeting, beating Snow Sky. A break followed,
after which Postponed was a close second to
the talented Western Hymn in a Group 3 at
Sandown in April, marginally bettering the form
showed by Eagle Top behind the winner at
Sandown a month later. Not beaten far when
third in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup last
time and should go well. RATING 99
26-520 Red Cadeaux 55 9 9-1 Ed Dunlop
Vastly-experienced globe-trotter who has
amassed total prize money of nearly £5m. For
all that, he has been a relatively infrequent
visitor to Royal Ascot over the years, his best bit
of form being his third to Sea Moon in this race
in 2012. Had an official rating of 119 then, 10lb
higher than it is now, and it’s hard to see him
competing for anything more than the smaller
prizes in this renewal. RATING 96
72-134 Romsdal 36 4 9-1 John Gosden
Was a superb three-year-old last season,
winning the Chester Vase en route to finishing
third in the Derby and second in the St Leger.
Hasn't quite scaled those heights in three starts
this year and held by Snow Sky on form of latest
run, in the Yorkshire Cup last season. Has
something to prove here. RATING 95
16-254 Sheikhzayedroad 14 6 9-1 David Simcock
Last seen when a held-fourth in the Coronation
Cup at Epsom, though earlier form, including
good efforts in defeat in two races in Dubai in
March, suggest he has small chance of
sneaking a place. Would need to post a career-
best effort to enter serious reckoning, though.
RATING 92

1237-1 Snow Sky 36 4 9-1 Sir Michael Stoute
Ran one of his best races to date when
defeating the excellent Brown Panther in the
Yorkshire Cup last month, which earns him
plenty of respect in the context of this race.
However, is probably still held by Postponed on
their running in the Voltigeur last year, and drop
back in trip may expose him to quicker 1m 4f
horses. RATING 98
1033-3 Super Moon 140 6 9-1 Kazuo Fujisawa
Talented horse in Japan, running very well in
decent, valuable 1m 2f and 1m 4f races.
Ground should suit, but does look as though he
needs to raise his game to take on the best of
his rivals in this race. RATING 94
234-21 Telescope 35 5 9-1 Sir Michael Stoute
One-time ante-post favourite for the 2013
Derby, but problems delayed him that season,
though he quickly made up for lost time,
winning the Great Voltigeur. Improved on that
form when landing this race by a clear margin
last year and not beaten far by Taghrooda next
time, in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth
Stakes (Eagle Top fourth). Track possibly didn't
suit when he was fourth in the Breeders' Cup
Turf at the end of 2014, and latest win came
in a Listed race, which should put him spot on
for this contest.
RATING 100
1511-1 The Corsican 28 4 9-1 David Simcock
Improving son of Galileo who has won four of his
six starts to date, apparently improving with
each run. Latest win came on seasonal debut in
a Listed race at Goodwood, winning by two
lengths from a fair yardstick, and when expected
to have needed the run. Needs to step up to the
bar in this race, but looks capable of improving.
RATING 96
=================================================

NOTEBOOK.
The 6f fillies' maiden for two-year-olds which
opened Leicester's recent Saturday meeting
looked a decent enough race and the third-placed
FOOL TO CRY
, trained by Roger Varian,
outperformed her 25/1 starting price, making
good headway from the rear in the final third of the
race. Her breeding suggests she may get a mile in
time, so she may benefit for stepping up from 6f.
Finishing one place behind Fool To Cry was a fellow
debutant, the green but promising
DUTCH
HEIRESS
, trained by Sir Mark Prescott. She's
another who may want further, both according to
her pedigree and this first performance on a
racecourse, where she ran on well at the close.
In the Scottish Sprint Cup, a 5f handicap, at
Musselburgh, the Kevin Ryan-trained
ONLINE
ALEXANDER
made up a lot of ground to finish
sixth, having given plenty of ground away at the
start when rearing as the stalls opened. She's a
talented filly on her day and deserves another
chance in a similar race.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

Last week's tricky card yielded two winners and
several placed horses. Interception was our most
rewarding winner at a massive 10/1, when landing
the ultra-competitive Wokingham Handicap, backed
up with Mahsoob's Wolferton Stakes win at 7/4.
The leading trainers for the past week are mostly
based in the North, with Richard Fahey training 8
winners from 40 runners at 20%, along with Royal
Ascot winner, David O'Meara (8 from 31) and Tim
Easterby ( 4 from 20). We all know what a remarkable
week Ryan Moore enjoyed at the Royal meeting (9
winners from 31 rides), but in the North, Easterby's
jockey David Allen has been in good form (6/27),
along with David Nolan (6/19), as well as a member
of Richard Hannon's team, Sean Levey, with 5 winners
from 14 rides (and all on the same day!).
Starting with the first of Channel 4's televised races,
the Chipchase Stakes is run at 2.00 at Newcastle
over 6 furlongs. Tim Easterby's
MATTMU
ran a great
race to finish second in the Duke Of York Stakes
earlier this year, and is fancied to return to winning
ways. He looked impressive when winning a Group
2 at Maisons-Laffitte last season, and has won his
only race on the likely fast ground that he will
encounter this weekend. Richard Fahey's
EASTERN
IMPACT
won a competitive Newmarket handicap on
his seasonal debut, likes fast ground and is a
consistent sort, worthy of consideration. The 2.35 at
Newcastle is a 6f handicap, where the most
interesting runner is Richard Fahey's
DON'T TOUCH
,
who has won both his races to date. He was a course
and distance maiden winner last month, and
followed up at Haydock from a mark of 85 a few
weeks ago. This is his first run against older horses,
but he certainly looks up to it. Trainer Ruth Carr (4
from 14 last week) runs the consistent
MESHARDAL
, who has rocketed up in the weights,
but is in peak condition and could go close.
Newcastle's 3.10 is a 7f handicap, and it could be
an opportunity for Godolphin's
PORTAMENTO
to get
back on track, following a busy juvenile campaign.
He beat Greenham Stakes runner-up Estidhkaar 4
lengths in his maiden, and has blossomed ever
since. He has been freshened up since Lingfield's
Good Friday meeting and can give weight away
today. For each-way purposes, David O'Meara's
RUSSIAN REALM
appears to be coming back to
form, having finished second at Newmarket over
today's distance last time, wearing a hood for the
first time. At 3.45, we witness the last
Northumberland Plate to be run on turf. The
‘Pitmen's Derby’ has attracted an excellent entry,
though Malton trainer, Brian Ellison has a strong
hand with
SEAMOUR
and
APTERIX
. Seamour won
a Haydock stayers' handicap (beating useful
yardstick and stable-mate, Totalize) last time out.
This decent hurdler is on the upgrade and is
reasonably handicapped. Apterix is very unexposed
and is lightly raced. He has won twice from four
starts, and both starts over hurdles, proving that he
stays well and is open to great improvement.
The 2.15 at Newmarket, the Listed Fred Archer Stakes,
has attracted decent entries. William Haggas's
WONDERSTRUCK
was narrowly beaten in May, having
won her maiden last season, before finishing sixth in
the Ribblesdale. The daughter of Sea The Stars is
unexposed, race-fit and ready to recommence winning
ways. Sir Michael Stoute's
GOSPEL CHOIR
bypassed
Royal Ascot's Hardwicke Stakes in favour of this race,
but has not run for over a year, having won the Jockey
Club Stakes at Newmarket last season. He is certainly
the class horse in the race, but may need the run after
such a long break. The 2.50 at Newmarket is a Listed
race for fillies over 6f. Trainer Richard Hannon (7/44
last week) has three decent fillies entered, with
GREAT
PAGE
and
WHATDOIWANTTHATFOR
looking the most
appealing. The former won a Listed race at Naas last
time out, and carries a 3lb penalty here, but has the
most proven level of ability. The latter was impressive
when winning at Leicester last time out, having
finished second to the Queen Mary-fourth, Beshara,
on debut. Newmarket's final race, the 3.25, is the
Group 3 Criterion Stakes, where
HORS DE COMBAT
should run well. He ran with credit in the Lockinge last
time out and must have suggested to trainer, James
Fanshawe, that a return to 7f would benefit him.
Gosden's
WANNABEYOURS
was disappointing on his
seasonal debut, but had won three races last season
and remains worthy of consideration in a race like this.

============================================
RACE RATING.

3.25 Newmarket - Saturday, 27 June
John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) 7f (July Course)

08-593 Brazos 50 4 Clive Brittain
Son of Clodovil who has run well in defeat in
these sorts of races in the past 12 months, but
general form since dropping back to handicaps
this season leaves him someway short of
what's required to win here. RATING 92
11-601 Code Red 22 3 William Muir
Listed winner last season and one whose best
form seems to be on good or softer ground,
which is possibly a negative, given the
forecast good-firm ground for this race. That
said, he didn't have the clearest of runs when
12th in the 2,000 Guineas and bounced back
to form when landing the Listed Surrey Stakes
from a well-regarded horse of the in-form Mark
Johnston. He is the highest-rated 3yo in the
race, so enjoys a weight allowance from the
older horses and could go well. RATING 98
015555 Emell 14 5 Richard Hannon
First-time blinkers prompted a Class 2
handicap win at Haydock earlier in season,
and though he hasn't won since then, he has
run consistently well in higher-grade races.
Drop back to 7f should help his chances in
this race, but others still preferred. RATING 95
46-409 Glenalmond 28 3 K R Burke
Beaten a fair way when dropped back to 6f for
a Group 2 last time and return to 7f and slight
drop in class may help him in this race, but
still has work to do against the best of these.
RATING 94
52400 Glen Moss 49 6 Martyn Meade
Made hay in handicaps for first Barry and then
Charlie Hills up to two seasons ago, at 6f and
7f, but probably handicapped to his best when
having a relatively quiet season with David
Brown last year, aside from a second in the
Victoria Cup and third in a Listed race at York.
Has moved yards again and went close in an
all-weather Listed race in February, but latest
form leaves him with plenty to do here.
RATING 92
15-0 Justice Well 28 3 David Elsworth
Maiden winner on his racing debut last
season before finishing fifth in the Chesham
Stakes at Royal Ascot. Not seen after that until
reappearing in a Class 2 handicap over 6f at
Newmarket last month. Probably outpaced
and needed run, so interesting here on this
step-up in trip, as one of the less-exposed
horses in the race. Needs to build on previous
form to enter serious calculations for this race,
but watch market for any signs of confidence.
RATING 95
20164- Kasb 266 3 John Gosden
Yard has been bang in form this season and
this son of Arcano was a useful juvenile last
season, winning twice and finishing at the
sharp end in a valuable sales race and the
Listed Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar, behind
Limato. Entitled to respect and another to
monitor for any signs of market confidence,
but needs to raise his game to have a chance
against the best of these. RATING 96
2415-5 Kiyoshi 49 4 Charles Hills
A smart filly who isn't quite top-class, but is
capable of running very well in Group 1 races
and won a Group 3 fillies' race over this
distance last September. Tends to need her
first run of the season according to past form,
so is probably better than her latest
performance, when she was also slowly away.
She should go well on the forecast good-firm
ground. RATING 98
1-0320 Lincoln 10 4 Mick Channon
Held by Emell at level weights when third to
that horse, beaten four lengths in April.
Improved on that form, though, when second
in the Victoria Cup at Ascot and maybe didn't
see out 1m in the Royal Hunt Cup last week.
Interesting on best form on drop back to 7f for
this race, but maybe lacks the bit of class
needed to cut it in this race. RATING 95
22-434 Markaz 28 3 B W Hills
A useful son of Dark Angel whose improving
form of last season has continued this year.
Ended last year with a decent second in a 7f
Group 3 and was probably outpaced when
fourth to Limato over 6f at Ascot on seasonal
debut. Not beaten far in last two starts, in a 7f
Listed race at Newmarket and a 6f Group 2 at
Haydock, so drop in class and an extra furlong
may help his cause. RATING 97
051528 Mister Universe 10 3 Mark Johnston
Held in some regard by in-form trainer whose
horses generally ran very well at Royal Ascot
last week and probably ran to his best
previous form when a close eighth in the
Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. Is held by Code
Red on his previous run in the Listed Surrey
Stakes at Epsom, but has a chance of making
the minor places. RATING 94
351-20 Outback Traveller 49 4 Jeremy Noseda
Generally progressive handicapper who has
won five of his 12 starts to date, and barring
his latest run, when left short of room and he
lost his place, in the Victoria Cup, he has been
running well over this distance and on good or
quicker ground. Yard places its horses well so
no surprise to see him improve on previous
form in this better company. RATING 96
61141- Telmeyd 267 4 William Haggas
A rapidly-improving son of Dutch Art who was
staying on well over 6f last season and comes
to this race for his seasonal debut. Step up in
trip should suit, as should the quickish
ground, but needs to be ready to hit the
ground running on what could be a very
competitive race for his seasonal debut.
RATING 97
60-016 That Is The Spirit 28 4 David O ́Meara
Consistent son of Invincible Spirit who has won
Listed races over this distance, and has run
respectably, rather than well, in Group 3 races.
One possible negative may be the ground, given
his winning form on ground ranging between
good and soft, and never on anything quicker
than good, so far. Work to do. RATING 94
1110-7 Wannabe Yours 14 4 John Gosden
Winner of the Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes at
Glorious Goodwood, which was the highpoint of
a progressive campaign last season.
Reappeared in a Listed race at Haydock a
fortnight ago, but looked unlikely to be involved
from early on, when he took an age to settle.
That run may have just got rid of his obvious
freshness and he could go well here. RATING 99
253-20 Hors De Combat 42 4 James Fanshawe
Return to fastish ground should suit this
well-regarded son of Mount Nelson, who
has run well over 1m this season, including
when second in a Listed race at Ascot on
his seasonal debut and midfield in the
Group 1 Lockinge Stakes. Stable knows
time of day in these races and should be
thereabouts on his best form.
RATING 100
========================================


RACING NEWS.
US horse of the year for 2014, California
Chrome, is set to return home to the States,
after failing to make his intended
appearance in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes
at Royal Ascot last week, due to a bruised
foot. Fans had hoped that he would be re-
routed to take on Golden Horn in the Eclipse
Stakes next month, but his British handler,
Rae Guest, announced that he would be
leaving his yard once his foot had healed.
Jockey Jimmy Fortune is facing a spell on the
sidelines after fracturing vertebrae in a fall at
Royal Ascot last week. His horse, Spark Plug,
clipped heels inside the final furlong, causing
them to fall in the Royal Hunt Cup. He is set
to miss between six and eight weeks of racing
whilst he recuperates.
Frankie Dettori has thanked 'the man that
saved my career', after winning the
Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot on
Osaila for his boss, Sheikh Joaan Al Thani.
He recorded his fiftieth Royal Ascot winner
in the process, becoming the fourth jockey,
after Lester Piggott (116 winners), Pat
Eddery (73 winners) and Willie Carson (56
winners), to ride a half-century or more
winners at the meeting. Frankie added two
more winners to his tally through the week,
continuing his marvellous run of form this
season.
Chelmsford City Racecourse has begun re-
waxing works on its sand surface following
complaints from jockeys and trainers since
the course began racing again in the New
Year. The surface had given excessive
'kickback', which is sand being kicked up by
other runners, which can affect the
performance of horses being held up. They
also plan to finish work on a new seven-
furlong chute, so that the course can
continue racing from July onwards.
Barry Geraghty looks set be announced as
successor to AP McCoy as JP McManus's
retained jockey. The twice-Irish Champion
has proved a capable understudy to McCoy
in recent times, by winning the Champion
Hurdle on Jezki and the World Hurdle on
More Of That.
Ladbrokes are in the process of reviewing a
policy to help promote responsible gambling,
with a view to maintaining 'sustainable, long-
term customers'. The bookmakers will offer
staff extra training to help spot clients that
may be betting irresponsibly, to help punters
stay in control of their gambling to help
prevent any likely issues.
Ryan Moore broke a post-war record at Royal
Ascot, by riding nine winners at one meeting.
Trebles on the first and third days, a double
on the second and one on the fourth have
helped to provide the all-conquering jockey
with an amazing week. His mounts often
came in for great support from the punters,
though not all started favourite, as the
banker for many during the five days,
Integral, finished well beaten in the Duke Of
Cambridge Stakes at 8/11. Victorian jockey,
Fred Archer, the builder of James Fanshawe's
Pegasus Stables, holds the all-time record,
with twelve winners in a single week.
Trainer David O'Meara has been credited with
improving yet another horse, as Amazing
Maria claimed the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes
at 25/1. O'Meara has become renowned for
revitalising older horses that have been
trained elsewhere, this horse coming from
Ascot Gold Cup-winning trainer, Ed Dunlop.
Amazing Maria's rider James Doyle was keen
to pay tribute to the horse's usual rider, Danny
Tudhope, who has been recuperating from a
broken thumb sustained in a fall at Catterick
earlier in the month.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

Gospel Choir was our only winner last week, as we
had quite a few non-runners and some difficult
races to decipher. Looking ahead, the leading
trainers for the past week have been Mark Johnston
(32% strike rate, with 13 winners) and Warren Place
handler, Ed Walker (5 winners from 11 runners, the
same number achieved by Charles Hills, Roger
Charlton and Sir Michael Stoute). Johnston's main
rider, Joe Fanning, is the hottest jockey after his 11
winners last week, along with Jim Crowley (7/30)
and Silvestre De Sousa (7/38). Australian rider
James McDonald caught the eye from limited
opportunities, riding 3 winners from just 8 mounts
last week.
Channel 4's televised action begins at 2.00 with the
Listed Coral Charge at Sandown. WAADY is a
confident selection here based on his impeccable
record on the 5f course at Sandown, having won 3
from 3 on the stiff track, and may improve again.
John Gosden's horse has already won three races
this season, his only defeat coming when failing to
stay the sixth furlong at Newbury on his penultimate
start. Opposition may come from the 2014
Molecombe Stakes winner, COTAI GLORY, who
should have added the Flying Childers Stakes to his
CV, but for jinking and unseating George Baker in
the final 50 yards when 2 lengths clear. The 2.35
at Sandown is a mile handicap, and could provide
an opportunity for SAHAAFY to resume winning
ways, after defeat in the Britannia Stakes at Royal
Ascot last time out. He was sent off favourite at
Ascot after trouncing Angel Vision in his previous
run at Newmarket, which now looks great form, as
the daughter of Islington made amends at HQ last
Saturday. Lady Cecil's WESTERN RESERVE should
run well based on his second place to Awesome
Power over course and distance last time out.
The 3.10 race is a Listed contest for fillies, also over
a mile, and our pick is BLACK CHERRY, who is
bidding for her hat trick this afternoon. She was a
5-length winner last time and trainer Richard
Hannon (8/49 last week) may have found an ideal
opportunity for his filly to boost her pedigree here.
Brian Meehan's MONTALCINO could challenge,
based on her second place to Crystal Zvezda at
Newbury last time, where she was slowly away, but
ran on well to chase home the one-time Oaks fancy.
The 3.45 at Sandown is the day's feature race, the
Coral Eclipse Stakes, a Group 1 race over 10
furlongs. GOLDEN HORN looks very difficult to
oppose here, receiving weight from his four rivals.
He is an outstanding horse, and his Epsom form
looks rock-solid after the Irish Derby last weekend.
WESTERN HYMN is 3 from 3 at Sandown and could
be the best value to chase him home, with a
forecast bet possibly worth considering to provide
trainer John Gosden (3/16 last week) with a 1-2.
Heading up to Haydock, we start proceedings with
the 2.15 race, a 10f handicap. AWESOME POWER
has already been mentioned, having won well at
Sandown last time out. He made light of a wide
draw on that occasion, and can provide The Queen
with another success. Tom Dascombe (3/15) may
run CYMRO, who turned over the long odds-on Sir
Isaac Newton at Chester's May meeting and comes
here rated 2lb lower than when last running on
Derby day. The 2.50 at Haydock is the Lancashire
Oaks over 12f, with MISS MARJURIE standing out,
having already beaten several of her opposition over
course and distance last time out. She stepped up
in grade to win the Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes by a
narrow margin, having previously won another tight
race at Goodwood. She is in great form and it looks
difficult to oppose her. Jim Bolger (3/23) may send
over ALTESSE, who has been rested since early
April. She has been placed in 4 Listed races after
winning her maiden, and could be less exposed
than some in what looks a weak renewal of this
race. She was beaten just a neck on her only
attempt on today's likely fast ground. Haydock's
final televised race is the Old Newton Cup, run at
3.25. We suggested APTERIX last week for the
Northumberland Plate, but he didn't make the cut,
so may appear here to try to follow up his win in the
Queen Mother's Cup at York last time out. This
unexposed gelding is a winning hurdler that
remains on a decent mark, having gone up just 6lbs
for his York win. PRESSURE POINT has won 2 of his
last 3, also winning at York last time out, and has
improved a massive 20lb in the weights this year
already.
=================================================

RACE RATING.

2.50 Haydock - Saturday, 4 July
Bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+) 1m 3f 200y CH4

1223-2 Altesse 91 4 J S Bolger
A half-sister to a Group 3 winner over this sort
of distance, Altesse has shown decent form
herself, going close in Irish Listed races last
season and on her only start this term. No
discernible ground preference and as one of
the less-exposed horses, from a major yard, no
surprise if she steps forward on her previous
form. RATING 97
8-2348 Amaze Me 17 3 Nick Littmoden
Has improved for step up in trip this season,
running one of her best races to date when a
held-fourth behind Star Of Seville in the
Musidora six weeks ago. Was staying on in the
Sandringham at Royal Ascot last time, when
dropped back to a mile, and return to further
may help here. Still needs to improve to trouble
likely principal players in this race. RATING 95
1225-3 Arabian Comet 63 4 William Haggas
Likeable and improving daughter of Dubawi
who was left short of room when only beaten
just over a length, at level weights, by Miss
Marjurie in a Listed race at Goodwood last
time. Could re-oppose that horse in this race
and has claims of turning tables, if granted a
trouble-free passage through the race.
RATING 99
0-6191 Ballybacka Queen 20 4 P A Fahy
Has improved slightly for stepping up in trip this
season, winning two 12f handicaps from four
starts this season. Seems to handle a variety
of going types and has Listed and Group-placed
form at two and three years, if needing to post
a personal best in this company, if she is to
finish at the sharp end. RATING 92
29111 Cape Castle 7 4 Clive Brittain
A Cape Cross filly who has hit form in recent
starts, if at a much lower level than this race,
having won three 12f and 14f handicaps
(Classes 4 to 6). Obviously in good form but has
a mountain to climb with some of her rivals
here, according to official ratings. RATING 91
434-95 Criteria 35 4 John Gosden
Held by Miss Marjurie on two starts this
season, if finishing closer to the winner last
time. No excuses on that run, though, and
although her Ribblesdale-third of last year
entitles her to some respect in this company,
others preferred for win purposes. RATING 97
90-366 Dark Crusader 48 5 A J Martin
Won the Melrose Handicap at York's Ebor
meeting for this yard two seasons ago which,
with a Group-third against her own sex last
August, offers some hope in this race, but there
have been too many lacklustre showings in
between to offer confidence in her prospects
in this company. May prefer some more cut in
the ground, rather than the expected good
going. RATING 94
7512-4 Jordan Princess 63 4 Luca Cumani
Finished behind Miss Marjurie and Arabian
Comet at Goodwood on sole start this season,
but, like the latter filly, another who didn't have
the best of luck in that race and her
progressive profile suggests that another good
run could be on the cards here. RATING 98
211-63 Lady Tiana 35 4 Lucy Wadham
Progressive daughter of Sir Percy whose latest
run, when third to Miss Marjurie, suggested
there may be more to come, as she finished
very well once getting a gap. One possible
negative is that today's good ground may be
fast enough for her, given her previous best
efforts have been achieved on soft or good to
soft going. Each way claims with some rain.
RATING 97
754-79 Lustrous 35 4 Richard Hannon
Won a 1m Listed race last season and then
built on that form when second in the
Ribblesdale and fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks.
Hasn't approached that level in two starts this
season, finishing behind Miss Marjurie and
other rivals she may face today on both
occasions. Has something to prove. RATING 95
815-85 Momentus 31 4 David Simcock
Another to finish behind Miss Marjurie, on her
first start of the season, but slightly improved
on that when trying to make all in a 10f Listed
race at Nottingham early last month. Deserves
some interest on her Listed-third in the
Lingfield Oaks Trial and subsequent eighth in
the Oaks itself, but maybe hasn't shown
enough this season to suggest she will be a
main player in this race. RATING 94
3411-0 Queen Of Ice 35 4 William Haggas
Likes quick ground and maybe needed that
and the run when fading sharply at Haydock
last time, when finishing down the field in the
Group 3 won by Miss Marjurie. Her earlier form
of last season entitles her to plenty of respect
in this race, given that she made all to beat
Arabian Comet and Jordan Princess into
second in Listed races at York and Newmarket.
If back to previous form, could be thereabouts.
RATING 98
792-11 Miss Marjurie 35 5 Denis Coakley
Decent handicapper over the middle-
distances last season, but stepped up on
that form in two starts this season, winning
a Listed race and then a Group 3. A number
of those who finished behind her didn't
have the best of luck in running, which
could make this a fascinating contest, but
Miss Marjurie none the less looks one who
should play the major role.
RATING 100
========================================================


NOTEBOOK.

BEN HALL
looks like he may provide canny
Yorkshire trainer Ruth Carr with another winner,
following an encouraging fourth in a 6f
handicap at Pontefract on Monday. The four-
year-old son of Bushranger has tumbled down
the ratings, and is now some 30lb lower than
his last winning mark. He has won over 5f and
6f, and did well to finish as well as he did on
this latest start, given that the first three home
all ran up with or near the pace, and that he
came through the rear after a sluggish start.
The 5f juvenile fillies' maiden which opened
Windsor's Monday evening meeting possibly
wasn't the strongest race of its type, but
Andrew Balding's
DANCING STAR
ran a solid
race on her debut to finish fourth of the 12
runners. The yard isn't noted for sending out
first-time winners and she can be expected to
build on this quietly promising debut
performance in due course.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.


We enjoyed a very good Eclipse day last week, with
three winners, including big-race winner, Golden
Horn (4/9), Coral Charge winner Waady (5/2) and
Cymro scoring at 9/2. We also went pretty close
with 6/1 shot Montalcino, who was beaten just a
neck. This weekend is very busy, with 10 races
shown live on Channel 4 Racing. Jockeys in form
include Northern maestro Graham Lee, winning on
8 horses from 39 rides, and James Doyle (8/18).
Silvestre de Sousa's Championship bid is warming
up with him winning on 7 rides from 25 mounts,
and Frankie Dettori has won 3 races from just 6
rides. Trainers in form include the consistent Mark
Johnston (12/32), Roger Varian (5/14) and Charlie
Hills (3/21).
Starting at Ascot, the 2.10 is a 5f handicap, where
Roger Varian's
DOUBLE UP
is the fancy. He has
won handicaps at Newmarket and Nottingham this
year and handles any ground. He can gain revenge
over Humidor, who beat him last time out.
NEWTON'S LAW
ran on well to win a 5f handicap
at Newmarket last month and is also very
consistent for a sprinter. The 2.45 at Ascot is the
Summer Mile, a Group 2 race for older horses. This
has attracted the classy pair
AROD
and Toormore.
The former has been a revelation since dropping
back to a mile, having finished fourth in the Derby
last season. He was impressive when making all in
the Diomed Stakes at Epsom last time, and could
be better value than
TOORMORE
, who finished in
front of him in the Lockinge.
Moving East to Newmarket, the 2.00 is a 1m
handicap, where Ralph Beckett's
MASTER OF
IRONY
makes appeal, having won 2 of his 3 starts.
He has been raised 9lbs since winning at
Doncaster and is a typically improving son of Makfi.
The Cape Cross gelding
ORACOLO
makes appeal
for David Simcock in the same race, having won 2
Doncaster handicaps in June. The 2.35 is the
Group 2 Superlative Stakes, where Aidan O'Brien's
(4/12 last week)
AIR VICE MARSHALL
catches the
eye. He improved massively from his debut effort
to win at Gowran last time and stands out. Mark
Johnston has plenty of entries, but Chesham-third
SIXTH SENSE
looks a solid each-way type based
on his profile. The 3.10 is the Bunbury Cup, which
looks a bit of a lottery!
BUSHCRAFT
was seriously
impressive for Ed Walker (5/16 last fortnight) when
winning at Newcastle and could have a race like
this in his range.
FIFTYSHADESOFGREY
has
improved for a wind-operation, winning his last 2
races, and looks to have been laid out for this race.
The 3.45 is the Group 1 July Cup, where the
impressive Commonwealth Cup winner
MUHARAAR
is a confident selection for the in-form
Charlie Hills, receiving 6lbs from his elders. Aussie
star
BRAZEN BEAU
could be the next best, now
that he is partnered by the red-hot James Doyle.
Up at York, the 1.45 is a 1m handicap, where
Godolphin's
MUSADDAS
looks to have a great
chance. He has won his last 2 and has been
freshened up for this race. David O'Meara's
BIRDMAN
is yet another to have been improved by
the yard, and can run well again after winning at
Haydock last week. The 2.20 is a Listed race over
1m 6f. Hughie Morrison's
FUN MAC
can gain
compensation for being touched off in the Ascot
Stakes, having missed work with a bruised foot, so
can improve on that form. Roger Varian's
AYRAD
could follow him home having won a Listed race at
Goodwood in May. The 2.55 is a 5f Listed race,
where Charlie Hills'
COTAI GLORY
makes his
seasonal reappearance, having won the
Molecombe Stakes last year. He is very quick, and
should have won the Flying Childers, but for
unseating George Baker near the line.
MEDICEAN
MAN
is another to have run well at the Royal
Meeting and deserves to go close. Finally, the 3.25
is the John Smith's Cup over 1m 2f.
ARAB DAWN
won the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at the Royal
Meeting and is fancied to follow up. Trainer Hughie
Morrison, rates a flat track as important to his
chances, so York should suit. Mark Johnston's
SENNOCKIAN STAR
finished second to the decent
MAHSOOB
at Ascot and has been consistent in the
past, and can be relied upon to run pretty well here.

=========================================================


EACE RATING.

2.45 Ascot - Saturday, 11 July
Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) 1m CH4.



15-231 Arod 36 4 Peter Chapple-Hyam
Made all when a comfortable winner of
the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom last
time (beating Custom Cut and Calling
Out), and probably matched his best form
shown to date when a good third to Night
Of Thunder in the Group 1 Lockinge
Stakes the time before. Clearly in good
heart this season and has solid win
claims in this company.
RATING 100
0-2154 Balty Boys 24 6 Brian Ellison
Has run over various distances recently,
between 7f and 1m 4f, but looks best over a
mile or so, and his latest run, when fourth in
the Royal Hunt Cup, was one of his best
performances to date. Has each-way claims if
in similar form for this race. RATING 95
2311-6 Bow Creek 78 4 Charlie Appleby
Won twice at this level last season, over 1m,
when trained by Mark Johnston. Only raced
once so far for this yard, when looking in need
of the run on his seasonal debut in the Group
2 Sandown Mile nearly three months ago.
Held by Custom Cut on that form, though
return to expected quicker ground could help
him here. RATING 96
62-351 Cable Bay 42 4 Charles Hills
Likeable and consistent son of Invincible
Spirit who last season probably didn't live up
to his top-class placed form as a juvenile the
year before. Things have been much rosier for
him in 2015, though, and his Group 3 third on
seasonal debut has been built upon in two
latest starts, when fifth in the Lockinge and
when he won a Group 3 at Haydock at the
end of May. Could be capable of stepping up
again in this race. RATING 97
33-785 Calling Out 36 4 David Simcock
Didn't show too much on first two starts for
this trainer when held in Listed and Group 1
races in Dubai earlier this year, though
shaped with some promise when fifth - on his
first start in three months - in the Diomed
Stakes at Epsom, behind Arod and Custom
Cut. May improve on that, but still has a bit to
find on official ratings. RATING 94
0-4034 Cougar Mountain 7 4 A P O ́Brien
Son of Fastnet Rock who seems to have
found his niche for stepping up in trip. Last
two of three runs over 1m include a very good
third in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal
Ascot, and that form entitles him to major
respect here, assuming he's fresh enough
after running in the Eclipse only a week ago.
RATING 99
18-192 Custom Cut 36 6 David O ́Meara
Was beaten by Arod in the Diomed Stakes last
time, but was giving that horse 5lb and was
only beaten two lengths. On that basis, should
be able to turn the tables with that horse at
level weights and has won both starts at this
level. Respected if a little more exposed than
some rivals. RATING 98
53-202 Hors De Combat 14 4
James Fanshawe
Talented son of Mount Nelson who has yet to
win outside of handicap company, but has
finished second or third four times in six
starts in Listed or Group races. Step back up
to 1m should suit, as should quickish ground.
Has each-way appeal and yard is in good
form. RATING 97
1/1-11 Lightning Spear 17 4 Olly Stevens
A lightly-raced Pivotal colt who is unbeaten in
just four starts to date, though all his
successes have only been achieved in
maiden and handicap races. Nonetheless, as
he has won his races in the manner of an
improving horse, he looks an interesting
contender in this race, even if the best of his
rivals leave him with a lot to find.
RATING 96
25-310 Moohaarib 56 4 Marco Botti
Beat the consistent Hors De Combat in a
Listed race over course and distance in April,
before finishing well down the field in the
Lockinge. Prior to that was third in the Lincoln
and looked generally progressive. If ignoring
his Lockinge Run, he would have a small
chance of sneaking a place, if not an obvious
winner. RATING 95
216-12 Temptress 24 4 Roger Charlton
Set to run in a Listed race at Pontefract
midweek, at the time of writing, so
participation in this race looks doubtful, but
heading the right way in decent handicaps,
having finished second in the Royal Hunt Cup
last time, and stable is having a very good
season. RATING 96
233-24 Toormore 25 4 Richard Hannon
A Group 1 winner at two, and winner of the
Craven Stakes at three, Toormore looked a
potential Guineas winner, but he didn't build
on that and his form levelled out. Has stepped
up in recent starts, having finished a fighting
second in the Lockinge and when trying to
make all in the Queen Anne last time. If at
that level for this race, he could go close.
RATING 99
1110-7 Wannabe Yours 28 4 John Gosden
This son of Dubawi improved through last
season to land the Group 3 Thoroughbred
Stakes at Goodwood before having a troubled
run in the Group 2 Joel Stakes at Newmarket.
He was very keen on his seasonal debut a
month ago, when he burned himself out in a
1m Listed race at York. As one previously on
the upgrade, with only a few starts to his
name, if he settles better in this race, he
could be a player in this company. RATING 97
54-671 Zarwaan 14 4 Ed Dunlop
Has gone up to a career-high rating of 109
after winning a Class 2 handicap at
Newcastle last time, so switch to a Group 2
race is logical, as is the return to a mile,
though he's not won over further than 7f.
Could raise his game, but needs to as others,
who are similarly inexperienced, already have
slightly better form. RATING 95
================================================


RACING NEWS.

Courageous jockey Brian Toomey is set to have
his comeback ride on Sunday at Southwell,
after a fall at Perth two years ago had left him
clinically dead for six seconds. Toomey has
worked remarkably hard during his
rehabilitation, and has amazed everyone at his
return to full health. He has spent months
riding out for Middleham trainer, Phil Kirby, for
whom he is set to ride King's Grey on Sunday.
Irish trainer, Gordon Elliott, enjoyed a
remarkable day on either side of the Irish Sea
last week, with a four-timer at Perth, where he
is leading trainer overall, and a treble at
Bellewstown. The seven winners won at
cumulative odds of 474/1, with Elliott saying
afterwards; "We'll enjoy today, we'll enjoy
tonight too!"
The popular sprinter, Borderlescott, has been
retired for the second time, aged 13. The
gelding has won the Nunthorpe Stakes twice
and the Stewards' Cup in a glittering career, as
well as accumulating over £800,000 in prize-
money. He was retired following a below-par
run at Musselburgh two weeks ago. The horse
had previously retired in 2012, but had
returned to race successfully since.
Victoria Pendleton, who has won two Olympic
gold medals, competed in her first charity race
last week at Newbury. She was riding Mighty
Mambo for trainer Lawney Hill, for whom she
has been riding out since announcing her
intention to take part in the 2016 Cheltenham
Foxhunters'. The cyclist had no riding
experience, but has been helped by the likes of
Yogi Briesner and Betfair, bringing some
excellent publicity to the sport. General
consensus is that she did very well for such an
inexperienced rider in finishing eighth.
Amongst others, she was riding against the
renowned and extremely experienced event
rider, Sir Mark Todd.
Very sadly, the great steeplechaser, Kauto Star,
passed away last week after sustaining an
injury whilst turned out in the field. Vets tried
their best over the previous weekend to save
him, but his condition worsened. Possibly one
of the best chasers ever, he won an
unprecedented five King Georges, four Betfair
Chases, two Gold Cups and two Tingle Creek
Chases in a remarkable career at the highest
level, which spanned seven years. Trainer Paul
Nicholls described his former star as "the
Champion of all Champions", whilst jockey
Ruby Walsh said he was "the best chaser I've
ever ridden."
BHA figures suggest 60% of horses failed to
recoup a single month's training fees during
2014. Prize-money has risen from £94 million
per annum to £130 million in the last 4 years,
though owners in Britain still only recover, on
average, 26% of their training fees, compared
to 53% in France.
American Triple Crown winner, American
Pharaoh, is scheduled to run in the $1 million
Haskell International at Monmouth Park on 2
August. The remarkable front-runner is aiming
to give trainer Bob Baffert his fifth win in the
race in six years, and will earn the locally-
based owner, Ahmed Zayat, and Baffert,
$75,000 just for attending, as he will collect a
$25,000 bonus for each leg of the Triple Crown
that he has won.
Jockey James Doyle is looking forward to
partnering July Cup fancy Brazen Beau after
riding the Aussie star in two excellent pieces of
work at Newmarket. Trainer, Chris Waller,
touched down at the airport just in time to
watch the horse work last Monday, and bids to
go one better in the July Cup after he finished
second in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal
Ascot.

[Kimmy]

STAT WATCH.

Last week was a good one for Staxxxxch, as we
recorded four winners across the country. We
tipped both televised winners at Ascot, with
Double Up winning at 7/1 and Arod following up at
6/4. We were off to a great start at York, with
Birdman winning at 7/1, and Musaddas finishing
second at 4/1, returning £35.10 for the Exacta!
And finally, we chose right in the July Cup, with
Muharaar winning at 2/1. This week, Channel 4
Racing are screening action from Newbury,
Newmarket and jumping from Market Rasen.
Trainer Roger Varian is in great form at present,
boasting a 35% strike rate with 7 winners in as many
days, while William Haggas trained 6 winners last
week. Sir Michael Stoute trained 3 winners last week
from just 9 runners. Luke Morris has been in great
form, riding 7 winners last week, while Paul
Hanagan rode 6, winning on a quarter of his mounts.
Godolphin jockeys James Doyle and Will Buick both
rode 5 winners from 23 rides through the week.
Starting with the 1.40 at Newmarket,
MASTER OF
IRONY
looks as though he can continue his
improvement for Ralph Beckett. He has won two of
his three races and looked impressive at Doncaster
last time out. Roger Varian's
REKDHAT
ran really well
to finish third behind Lightning Spear at Salisbury on
her seasonal debut, and can perform here if the
ground is fast, as that condition seems imperative
to her. The 2.15 at Newmarket is the Listed Newsells
Park Stud Stakes and we have chosen Godolphin's
ENDLESS TIME
. She won at Goodwood last time out
in impressive style, when reappearing quickly to beat
the handicapper. The next best is William Haggas'
ARABIAN COMET
, who hasn't been seen since early
May, when finishing second to Miss Marjurie in a
Listed race at Goodwood.
Haggas' runner
SEALIFE
is the selection for the
2.00 at Newbury. She was a winner on debut at
Windsor last time out, when beating the useful
yardsticks Spirited Acclaim and Lemoncetta.
James Fanshawe's well-related filly,
SPIRIT
RAISER
is the next best, based on her second-
place behind Angel Vision at Newmarket last time
out. The 2.35 at Newbury is the Listed JLT Stakes
over 1m 2f, and could be a great opportunity for
CONSORT
. He has won a Listed race at Sandown
and finished third to Gleneagles in the St James
Palace Stakes this season, and is stepped up in
trip by Sir Michael Stoute this afternoon. Varian's
INTILAAQ
was supplemented for the Guineas after
winning his maiden earlier in the season and could
chase him home. The 3.10 at Newbury is the
Listed Hackwood Stakes over 6f, where
TIGGY
WIGGY
could get back to winning ways. She
finished third in the Guineas, before disappointing
when dropped in trip at Royal Ascot, but carried
her head very awkwardly that day. She is sure to
have been straightened out by the Hannon team
and could be chased home by Chipchase Stakes
winner
AEOLUS
. The 3.45 at Newbury is the Super
Sprint, a sales race for juveniles. Mark Johnston's
front-runner
HAWATIF
could follow up his
impressive Carlisle victory in this valuable race.
Hannon's
GREAT PAGE
has already won a Group
3 at Naas this season and escapes a penalty here,
though must cope with the drop back to 5f.
Heading to Market Rasen for summer jumping's
feature meeting, The 2.55 is the Summer Hurdle,
where
HURRICANE HOLLOW
looks as though he
can provide Dan Skelton (23 winners this season
at 37%) with a valuable win. He is unpenalised for
winning a conditional riders' event at Cheltenham
in April and has been saved for this, as he goes so
well fresh. Trainer John Ferguson (53% strike rate
in the last fortnight) could run
ITTIRAD
, who won
at Uttoxeter last time out. He is a very consistent
horse, both on the flat and over hurdles. The
Summer Plate is a chase run at 3.30, where we
fancy Skelton's
PUMPED UP KICKS
, who also has
been saved for this. She was an easy winner at
Cheltenham (Listed race) and Warwick last time
out, and looks well treated by the handicapper.
DELL' ARCA
looks interesting for David Pipe,
having been a disappointing hurdler, but won over
fences last time out, having finished second to
Coneygree at Newbury last season.
============================================


RACE RATING.

3.10 Newbury - Saturday, 18 July
FAl Basti Equiworld Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) 6f

046-41 Aeolus 21 4 Ed Walker
Aeolus returned to form with a win in the Group
3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle last time out.
He had been previously campaigned at up to 7f,
and had won a Listed race at Haydock last
season. At Newcastle, he had a couple of today's
potential rivals behind him in a tight finish,
having looked a little disappointing previously. He
is best with some cut in the ground, and is clearly
a decent horse, but currently lacks the
consistency of his two-year-old days. RATING 98
0-1406 Divine 8 4 Mick Channon
This filly won a Windsor handicap first time out
this season, before finishing fourth to the useful
Tropics when returning there the following
month. She finished mid-division in the
Wokingham, which was a reasonable run, before
finishing sixth in the Summer Stakes at York last
week. She ran better than her finishing position
suggests last time out, but she probably lacks
the finishing speed to compete in this race,
however. RATING 92
9-1743 Eastern Impact 7 4 Richard Fahey
Ran well to beat Huntsmans Close on his
seasonal debut at Newmarket, before finishing
seventh at Windsor, in the race where Divine
finished fourth. He finished fourth in the
Chipchase Stakes behind Aeolus, before running
a personal best in the July Cup at Newmarket
last weekend. He ran a remarkable race to finish
third to Muharaar and Tropics, beaten just a
length and a half. It is questionable whether he
will be at his best just seven days after this
phenomenal effort, so he is difficult to fancy for
a win bet here. RATING 93
40-342 Maarek 56 8 Miss Evanna McCutcheon
He has been a leading Irish sprinter for many
years, but has a definite preference for soft or
heavy ground. He ran his best race for some time
when finishing second at The Curragh last time
out behind Mustajeeb. He has not been seen out
since May, which may have been because he
can't get the soft ground he loves anywhere.
Unfortunately, he won't get it here either, making
him easy to overlook, despite our obvious
respect for a very talented horse. RATING 90
17270- Moonraker 274 3 Mick Channon
He won on his debut as a two-year-old last
season, and progressed to finish second in a
Listed race at York later in the year. He ran
disappointing races in both the Flying Childers
and the Cornwallis Stakes towards the end of
last year, and is difficult to fancy this afternoon.
RATING 89
0-2063 Musical Comedy 14 4 Richard Hannon
This horse was a very useful two-year-old whose
last win came in a Listed race over today's course
and distance in May 2014. His form has been
considerably below-par ever since, though he ran
with some promise at Haydock a fortnight ago,
when finishing third in a conditions race. It would
be a surprise if he could turn back the clock and
win this race today. RATING 91
51-205 Outback Traveller 21 4 Jeremy Noseda
He won three handicaps last season, but has
been unraced over 6f since his early two-year-old
runs. He has shown excellent form since over 7f,
including when beaten just a head by
Speculative Bid at Kempton earlier in the
season. He is clearly a very useful horse that ran
well to finish fifth at Newmarket last time out, but
whether he can cope now that he's dropped back
down to 6f is an unknown. RATING 94
513-08 Polybius 28 4 David Lanigan
Having been unraced as a juvenile, Polybius was
a very useful three-year-old, winning three races,
including a 6f handicap at Kempton from a mark
of 94. He later finished third in a Listed race at
the end of the year, confirming his improvement
through the season. At first glance, his form this
season looks uninspiring, though his 5 ¾ length
eighth-place in the Wokingham last time hints at
a return to form. He could just be worth taking a
chance on for an each way bet. RATING 97
121-61 Portamento 7 3 Charlie Appleby
Portamento won four races as a juvenile, proving
himself a useful performer at both 5 and 6
furlongs. He won at Chester last week from a
mark of 104, having been rested since
appearing at Lingfield's Good Friday fixture. He
missed the break last week, but was good
enough to land the spoils, despite the speed bias
at Chester's demanding track. He is certainly
good enough for a step up in grade and cannot
be left out of calculations, assuming this race
won't have come too soon. RATING 99
41-831 Strath Burn 9 3 Charlie Hills
Boasts an unusual profile, as he 'won' a maiden
on debut, but was disqualified later in the season
as he failed a drugs test. Prior to the demotion,
he finished second to subsequent Craven winner
Kool Kompany in the Prix Robert Papin, second
in the Cornwallis stakes and third at York to the
useful Profitable. He was then dropped down in
grade to win a maiden at 1/10 last time out at
Doncaster and is clearly a very useful horse,
despite his unusual history. RATING 95
11-330 Tiggy Wiggy 29 3 Richard Hannon
Tiggy Wiggy was the Cartier Two-year-old of
the Year last season, winning six races,
including the Super Sprint (6 lengths), the
Cheveley Park Stakes and the Lowther
Stakes. This season, she failed to stay the trip
in the Fred Darling (finishing third) and the
1,000 Guineas, yet she was still good enough
to finish third to Legatissimo, despite having
to cope with the stiff finish on the Rowley Mile
course. She was disappointing in the
Commonwealth Cup, but carried her head
very awkwardly throughout, which was an
issue her trainer thinks he may have
addressed since. I think we all hope that she
can return to her bullet-like best, as she is
one of the fastest fillies we have seen for
some time. Difficult to beat if returning to
anything like her best.
RATING 100
0-2555 Watchable 21 5 David O'Meara
It seems folly to leave out any horse trained by
David O'Meara at present. He finished fifth in the
Chipchase Stakes behind Aeolus, with his last
win coming back in September in a valuable
handicap at The Curragh. He has been going
fairly close in some decent races this season and
cannot be entirely ruled out, but he would need
a career best to land this race today. RATING 96
===========================================


NOTEBOOK..

ROXY STAR
won her second race of the season
at Ascot last week and looks to be going places.
She added to her earlier win at Nottingham by
powering away from a reasonable field, and
looks ready for a step up to Listed company. The
jockey's most difficult job so far has been
settling her, but this highly-strung filly has an
excellent turn of foot and is well managed by
William Haggas.
SHALAA
would not have
escaped the attention of many, as he looked
very impressive when winning the July Stakes
at Newmarket. He was discarded by Frankie
Dettori, but won very easily under John
Gosden's second jockey, Robert Havlin, and
could be difficult to beat this season. He is
considered a very fast horse by the stable, and
could represent them in the leading juvenile
sprints this season.