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Post by twmills on Feb 8, 2013 6:09:37 GMT
Hi Kimmy suggested that I post my selections here, I have a way of rating horses on speed, I don't keep speed ratings, but I have a way of rating a race on the day. As I said in the chit chat section I am looking for a way to combine class into my rating, or somehow improve them to bring the selection down to one. At the moment I am finding that the winner has always been in the top three of the ratings, but I am never sure on which one to back, one thing I don't want to get into is backing all three. My rating is based on time, dist, going, and lengths btn. If you look at chit chat you will see I put up a race for Wolverhampton yesterday, in which Sewn Up won, Joint second rated, I backed Midnight Dream lost by a nose. Today I will put up the 5:00 Wolverhampton, Here are my ratings for that race.
Festival Dance 60 Crimson Queen 70 Perlachy 58 Shawkantango 68 Sunrise Dance 67 Ivestar 63 Holy Angel 72 Ingleby Star 41 Ice Trooper 63 Tongalooma 59 Lord Buffhead 63 Russian Bullet 59
My top three are CRIMSON QUEEN, SHAWKANTANGO, and HOLY ANGEL.
Does anyone have any suggestions please on how I can improve the ratings. I have been searching for a class rating to combine with my rating, and so far no joy, but maybe someone may have other ideas. Thank you.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 8, 2013 8:06:12 GMT
A three months trial with perhaps filters along the way might help.
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Post by twmills on Feb 8, 2013 11:04:13 GMT
Hi Kimmy can you explain more, I don't know about filters how do I go about that.
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Post by twmills on Feb 8, 2013 20:09:44 GMT
These are my ratings for Lingfield 3:45.
Piscean 86 Fratellino 79 Woolfall Sovereign 82 Swiss Cross 76 Tarooq 78 Even Stevens 81 Thunderball 77 Noverre To Go 63 Profile Star 76 Elna Bright 79
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 8, 2013 21:34:33 GMT
Hi Kimmy can you explain more, I don't know about filters how do I go about that. As you have posted on other forums 'work in progress and having made some amendments'. As you know experiment with amendments.
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Post by twmills on Feb 8, 2013 23:58:35 GMT
This is where I am stuck I have tried all the ideas I can think of, that's why I was hoping for suggestions. I don't think I am far away of having a good rating system, as I said the winner has always been in the top three rated. Of the two races I put up so far yesterday second rated won, today First rated.
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Post by twmills on Feb 9, 2013 7:16:23 GMT
I said I had tried everything I know, but something dawned on me as I slept last night, and I have added into my rating the course, the OR lto and finish position. With these now added I have decided to back PISCEAN in the 3:45 Lingfield. These are the ratings with the extra added.
Piscean 60 Fratellino 56 Woolfall Sovereign 57 Swiss Cross 55 Tarooq 52 Even Stevens 54 Thunderball 49 Noverre To Go 44 Profile Star 47 Elna Bright 50
The reason the figures are smaller is because I have averaged the extra figures with the original.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 9, 2013 7:58:41 GMT
Thats all you can do. I am sure as time goes by we will think of further things to add/subtract. It will help if you keep a running record of the number of bets and wins/peices.
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Post by twmills on Feb 9, 2013 11:14:31 GMT
Thanks Kimmy do you or anyone have a spreadheet I can have for keeping bets and results.
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Post by Kimmy on Feb 9, 2013 11:41:00 GMT
Sorry spreadsheets leave me standing.
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Post by twmills on Feb 10, 2013 10:07:44 GMT
Having made some adjustments, I will now run with it and see how it goes, yesterday lost by a head, I will from now on follow the top rated, and today's is in the Southwell 4:50.
FRONTIER FIGHTER
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Post by twmills on Feb 16, 2013 9:20:42 GMT
Having put the fine adjustments to my system today's selection is:
MONSIEUR CHEVALIER 4:00 Lingfield.
The full ratings are as follows:
Monsieur Chevalier 61 Webbow 59 Mia´s Boy 63 George Guru 61 Solar Deity 59 Alfred Hutchinson 60 Verse Of Love 54 Atlantis Crossing 54 Rakaan 54 Lord Ofthe Shadows 55
I have made MONSIEUR CHEVALIER the selection on value.
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