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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 10, 2009 20:57:29 GMT
The AB BC bet and Marchwoods assumption certainly imply dutching but,VDW always seemed to refere to only one selection in particular.
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Post by Les on Jul 10, 2009 21:13:11 GMT
think they may have been top rated that were doing certain things,ie top rated speed top rated raceform handicap first 3 in betting this appears in the pro,s and cons book writen by the guy jackform or proprice over on that other board you put up.theres top rated and top rated i think?
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Post by Les on Jul 10, 2009 21:22:35 GMT
quote from pro,s and cons by alan coldrick[proprice]
try the following exercise take any race and mark off the following top rated 4 most consistent those in the first 3 in the betting all winners to 4ths lto all distance winners all-aged handicap winners on the flat carrying 8st 7lbs or less top 3 speed top 3 handicap anyhorse carrying less weight than when they last ran
this all comes under probability the more of these goingfor it the more probable
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Post by Les on Jul 10, 2009 21:36:17 GMT
i believe that the vdw thing was only the staff of raceform showing how to make the best of there paper
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 10, 2009 21:36:37 GMT
These would definatly give us a more probable winner.I really need to get copys of the books again.
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 10, 2009 21:41:20 GMT
i believe that the vdw thing was only the staff of raceform showing how to make the best of there paper This is of course a possibility that also has to be considered.Im not sure a hoax as such could have carried for this period of time though. There is certainly a possibility though as you say that it was used as a teaching tool and was never meant to be taken at face value.
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Post by Les on Jul 10, 2009 21:41:46 GMT
did something like it ,always have to change, lol, if you have another good rule please put it up would like to improve this 10 good points would be good
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 10, 2009 21:49:52 GMT
Just a thought but as we take the three lowest numbers with VDWs consistency rating,could there be un upper window for acceptable as a bet?IE no bet if any have a consistency over 10?
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 10, 2009 21:50:51 GMT
Must walk the dog he's got his legs crossed LOL.
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Post by Les on Jul 10, 2009 21:52:32 GMT
aye think there is ,set 21for marchwoods
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 10, 2009 22:26:24 GMT
If it is set 21 for Marchwood from a possible 25,then the VDW cosistency rating should be no higher than 7,maybe,in comparison?
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Post by Les on Jul 10, 2009 23:14:53 GMT
good al set it a wee bit lower 19
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Post by Les on Jul 11, 2009 12:59:41 GMT
just went for a fun lucky 15 jason
secret society kingdom of fife midnight cruiser perfect shot
first is up 10/3,did not want to back 60 to win 100 with the dutch
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Post by Les on Jul 12, 2009 12:01:53 GMT
having looked at the probability thing in pros and cons and what i rate in a race there are a few things not rated those in the first 3 in the betting all aged handicap winners on the flat carrying 8st 7 lbs or less any horse carrying less weight than when they last ran
first horses carrying 8st 7lbs or less think just add on points per lbs under 8st 7lbs in the long handicap
first 3 in betting if a winner lto gets 10 points what points should the fav get
how should horses carrying less weight from lto be pointed
some of the things i would like to include in my ratings
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 12, 2009 12:26:21 GMT
I dont think the favourite should auto score,as it maybe a false favourite,just a thought.
As for pointing out weight from lto......maybe another coloum showing a negative number if the weight has lowered?
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Post by Les on Jul 12, 2009 12:41:39 GMT
looking at ways to to improve these ratings though there doing ok i suppose
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 12, 2009 13:11:11 GMT
looking at ways to to improve these ratings though there doing ok i suppose No harm in trying to improve something mate.
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Post by Les on Jul 12, 2009 13:18:33 GMT
do you think that it maybe the way there used rather than the way there compiled jason could be the answer to improving strike rate
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Post by Les on Jul 12, 2009 14:12:33 GMT
after looking at some of the races over the last few weeks will re-handicap the horses around 8st 8lbs for a couple of weeks to see if it improves anything often wondered what the piece in golden years was about
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 12, 2009 17:45:52 GMT
What piece in the golden years are you referring to?
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 12, 2009 17:49:46 GMT
do you think that it maybe the way there used rather than the way there compiled jason could be the answer to improving strike rate You might be on to someting there,lots of people deliberate over the compileing of ratings and dont appear to have got any closer.
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Post by Les on Jul 12, 2009 21:03:29 GMT
its the piece on weight and the long handicap and 8st 8lbs, new for this week only allotting the handicap mark of the horse on 8st 8lbs to all the horses in the race.so it would even out the ratings a little see if it works next week,it would have brought silvino the john smiths winner into it this week.he did say in golden years had the beating of the other horses on weight alone? may help to identify these type dont know
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Post by Les on Jul 14, 2009 8:14:55 GMT
kept it simple
4.00 brighton dianes choice.........126........21.......49.........99 just joey.................116........14......41.........89 joss stick.................115........13.....39..........89 litham......................113........13......36.........90
using the mail and the mirror top rated in both papers top trainer at track top jockey c/d sf in mirror fav
kept it simple after a poor saturday this should get us back on track
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 14, 2009 10:23:43 GMT
Good luck mate
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 15, 2009 20:41:05 GMT
kept it simple 4.00 brighton dianes choice.........126........21.......49.........99 just joey.................116........14......41.........89 joss stick.................115........13.....39..........89 litham......................113........13......36.........90 using the mail and the mirror top rated in both papers top trainer at track top jockey c/d sf in mirror fav kept it simple after a poor saturday this should get us back on track Well the winner was within the top rated.
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Post by Les on Jul 18, 2009 10:10:57 GMT
this week have went with using speed plus as an ability rating still very little races to use anyway 3.25 newbury
monsieur chevalier........100........23*........71..........101 regnier...........................95.........17..........63...........89 star river........................95..........3............48..........73 archers road...................95.........11...........56.........83 here now and why..........92..........12...........57.........82 above limits....................91..........12...........56.........84 desert action..................90..........10............52........74
*ive forgiven the lto form of monsieur chevalier as it was baddly hampered very little on the cards elsewhere
first column...........speed plus 2nd column...........consistency 3rd.........................mirror+consistency 4th.........................mail+consistency
3/1 looks ok
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 18, 2009 10:29:34 GMT
I agree that monsieur chevalier will come back today and at 3/1 is just a bonus.
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Post by Les on Jul 22, 2009 11:05:34 GMT
see if we can get a winner with this system
leicester 6.45 class 38
millitary call........100..........13.......45........91 queens hawk.......95...........3........31........75 on the bounty......95...........9........39........81 pintura................94...........0.........31.......74 ginger ted............94...........13.......40.......88
millitary call beat a horse lto that went on and won a 5k race next time out
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 25, 2009 10:23:59 GMT
Ascot...3.50...Contenders ;
Captain Brilliance,Roaring Forte,Secret Society,Jeninsky,
My choice ;
Secret Society.
Ascot...4.25...Contenders ;
Ask,Tartan Bearer,Golden Sword,Conduit,Alwaary,Look Here,
My choice ;
Golden Sword.
York...3.10...Contenders ;
Curtain Call,Kirklees,Tazeez,Monitor Closely,Allied Powers,Halicarnassus,
My choice ;
Curtain Call.
York...3.45...Contenders ;
Roker Park,Biniou,Al Khaleej,
My choice ;
Roker Park.
Lets see how I do.Fingers crossed.
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Post by makingitslowly on Jul 25, 2009 15:36:22 GMT
No joy today,will try something different tomorrow.
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