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Post by garstonf on Dec 9, 2010 14:41:01 GMT
Kevin
Yes he did add the 33%’s together in SIAO and to use his own words he “ought to have known better”.
Here are a few of my own stats from NH 2008-09 Jan 17 onwards and Flat 2009 (no AW 08-09). Last 3 form figures: 111 21%, 121 14%, 221 29%. 3 most cons from betting f/c: 3-3-3 100%, 3-3-4 100%, 3-4-5 100%. Sample rate was 2 out of 2, 2 out of 2 and 5 out of 5. No losers from this period. The 3-3-3 was 3 out of 3 but one was a non runner so I haven’t counted it.
Makingitslowly
Are you still planning on stating the method in its entirety?
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Post by Kevin THFC on Dec 9, 2010 18:00:06 GMT
garstonf,
Were your 3-3-3 horses all 111's? If so could you please give me the race details?
I also found that other combinations than 111 gave a better strike rate next time out. Best Wishes
Kevin
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Post by garstonf on Dec 10, 2010 9:55:22 GMT
Kevin
Just for you. Not exactly 111’s. Betting forecast is from Sporting Life website.
NH 2008-09 Sat Jan31 Sand 2:35 C313 G1 NC
625114 Buck The Legend 13-1R11 Herecomesthetruth 3 * W7/4F 5314/12 Massini's Maguire 7 353-321 Pressgang 6 731111 Will Be Done 3 * NR 613111 Araldur 3 *
Betting Forecast: 11/4 Herecomesthetruth (IRE), 10/3 Will Be Done (IRE), 7/2 Massini's Maguire (IRE), 4/1 Araldur (FR), 7/1 Pressgang, 10/1 Buck The Legend (IRE)
Sat Feb21 Kemp 2:35 C188 G2 NC
3-1R111 Herecomesthetruth 3 * W8/13F 111U1F Ouzbeck 3 * 11/1P Au Courant 3 * 44123- Premier Des Marais 6
Betting Forecast: 5/4 Ouzbeck (FR), 11/8 Herecomesthetruth (IRE), 8/1 Au Courant (IRE), 8/1 Premier Des Marais (FR)
Fri Mar13 Chel 1:30 C68 G1 Hdle
31 Art Sleuth R3112 Ebadiyan 4 D1 Jumbo Rio 318 Just Rob 111 Lethal Weapon 431454 Maidstone Mixture 1 Master of Arts 3 * 13 Mourad 6332 Reve de Sivola 1211 Silk Drum 141143 Simarian 111 Starluck 3 * 1321 Stow 21122 Tharawaat 121 Trenchant 1 Tyrrells Wood 1211 Walkon 4 11 Zaynar 3 * W11/2
Betting Forecast: 9/2 Walkon (FR), 5/1 Master of Arts (USA), 5/1 Zaynar (FR), 11/2 Starluck (IRE), 8/1 Ebadiyan (IRE), 10/1 Jumbo Rio (IRE), 12/1 Trenchant, 14/1 Lethal Weapon (IRE), 14/1 Reve de Sivola (FR), 16/1 Mourad (IRE), 25/1 Art Sleuth (USA), 25/1 Tharawaat (IRE), 33/1 Silk Drum (IRE), 33/1 Simarian (IRE), 33/1 Tyrrells Wood (IRE), 50/1 Just Rob, 50/1 Stow, 200/1 Maidstone Mixture (FR)
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Post by wapdave on Dec 10, 2010 18:08:55 GMT
a question to any vdwers,when vdw said he only took the first 5/6 in the betting with consistent horses who fall outside the market leaders,but what consistency value 8 or under? I do think that if members want to progress with the VDW method, they need to forget the specifics of what he wrote, but rather, look at the principles of what he wrote. Adding up form figues for a consistency rating and prize money for an ability rating isn't, in my opinion, the way forward. Surely if these fora have proved one thing over the years, that is it! These may, possibly, get you looking at the right shortlist of horses, but you'll still need to analyse the form. So why not just analyse the form and forget the painting by numbers. B - I'm in that sort of mood tonight - C Just found this forum and thread on VDW so Hi. You are totally right BC. I often think it highly amusing that people look for some kind of magic formula or shortcut to pick winners in horse races gleamed from the ramblings of an after-timer some 20-30 years ago In this day and age he would be asked to post up his Betfair screenshots or at least have the decency to post up a selection in advance. It was ahead of it's time but only in terms of marketing,PR and 'spin'. Racing has completely changed in the last 5-10 years let alone 30 and it requires a totally fresh approach. Some of the 'concepts' and 'ideas' may have some relevancy and I was thinking about VDW when Midnight Chase won today with form figures of 111 having been dropped in class in a 'quality' race. I look forward to future discussions on the subject of a 21st century method and factors that have more relevancy than 'summing' a horse's last 3 form figures.
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Post by Kevin THFC on Dec 10, 2010 18:13:42 GMT
Thanks garstonf, appreciate you taking the time to post up the races. I was concerned that I didn't pick them up in my code and can now see why. Will think about re-running t.
Kevin
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Post by BC on Dec 10, 2010 20:27:32 GMT
Just found this forum and thread on VDW so Hi. You are totally right BC. I often think it highly amusing that people look for some kind of magic formula or shortcut to pick winners in horse races gleamed from the ramblings of an after-timer some 20-30 years ago In this day and age he would be asked to post up his Betfair screenshots or at least have the decency to post up a selection in advance. It was ahead of it's time but only in terms of marketing,PR and 'spin'. Racing has completely changed in the last 5-10 years let alone 30 and it requires a totally fresh approach. Some of the 'concepts' and 'ideas' may have some relevancy and I was thinking about VDW when Midnight Chase won today with form figures of 111 having been dropped in class in a 'quality' race. I look forward to future discussions on the subject of a 21st century method and factors that have more relevancy than 'summing' a horse's last 3 form figures. Welcome to the forum Wapdave. There may be some members on the board who might like to discuss developments along the lines you suggest. You can but try. BC
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Post by Les on Dec 10, 2010 23:06:36 GMT
cheltenham tomorrow
master minded....728......6........28........cd.........177.......185...78 twist magic.........588......15.......39........d...........172.......181...74 gauvain..............142......3.........31.......c/d...........146.......173...64 kalahari king.....266......10.........8........d..............175.......175...65 somersby.........126.......7.........39.......d..............172.......181...63
like the pr men said some stick out like sore thumbs of the others tomorrow i,ll be watching ,great endevour for later in the season
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Post by Arkle55 on Dec 11, 2010 1:16:52 GMT
Wapdave, how has racing changed. I previously put this question to Makeinitslowly but he did not answer and has you posted along similar lines i thought i would ask your goodself.
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Post by wapdave on Dec 11, 2010 1:44:47 GMT
Hi Arkle. Well, there are numerous changes in many different areas but I suppose the main one is with training methods/regimes in particular. The ability for a trainer to get a horse a lot fitter than perhaps in the past without need of racecourse visits or prep run with improvements in horse welfare, all-weather gallops, exercise pools etc etc.
The introduction in recent years of 'open', 'heritage', 'limited' handicaps also has seen a lot more of the big handicaps being contested by horses within a narrow band of OR's/racing out of the handicap like today with Midnight Chase's race and the Hennessy with Denman.
There have been a number of improvement in terms of course management and care etc. Lots of things are different but the main thing I think that is different is the wealth of information regarding horse form and information that was not so readily available back 'in the day'.
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Post by Les on Dec 11, 2010 10:02:19 GMT
hows pat treating you arkle
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Post by Arkle55 on Dec 11, 2010 10:03:19 GMT
Wapdave, thanks for the reply. May i ask, why would VDW have to change his approach when the his basics of finding the probables have not changed.
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Post by Les on Dec 11, 2010 10:22:22 GMT
IS THERE A SANTA CLAUS 5/6 master minded with twist magic a n/r doubled back to the bank i hope i,m right lol
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Post by garstonf on Dec 11, 2010 12:49:01 GMT
a question to any vdwers,when vdw said he only took the first 5/6 in the betting with consistent horses who fall outside the market leaders,but what consistency value 8 or under? Les I presume you are asking; what is the maximum value VDW considered when looking at the highly consistent horses that are not mentioned in the first 5 or 6 of the newspaper betting forecast. The answer is quite simple. VDW was looking for the 3 most consistent so if the 3 were 3-4-5 he would check out those others with a rating of 5, if 3-3-6 then those with a rating of 6. Two examples VDW gave were: Whitbread Gold Cup 3 most cons 2211U3 Master H 5 * -5111UF Shifting Gold 3 * P33131 Another Dolly 5 * 11111F Spartan Missile 3 * Only 1 other to consider 22111F Strombolus 3 Harrison Drape Stayers’ Hcap 3 most cons 37415-5 Tug Of War 11 * 2153-23 Palmerston 8 * 14714-2 Moonlight Rag 7 * Only 1 other to consider 16751-1 Little Nugget 7 I did not make a note of the betting forecasts for these races but I did make a note that Strombolus and Little Nugget were not in the forecast. Also if your newspaper was like my local the above would have looked like this: Harrison Drape Stayers’ Hcap 3 most cons 1230-11 Night Watch 12 * 2103-23 Palmerston 8 * 14014-2 Moonlight Rag 7 * Only 1 other to consider 10001-1 Little Nugget 12 Anyone with the forecasts for these races should be able to confirm if the information given is correct.
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Post by BC on Dec 11, 2010 13:59:48 GMT
IS THERE A SANTA CLAUS 5/6 master minded with twist magic a n/r doubled back to the bank i hope i,m right lol Well done Les.
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Post by Les on Dec 11, 2010 14:01:41 GMT
ho ho ho
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Post by Walter Pidgeon on Dec 11, 2010 14:02:25 GMT
On ye go Les... Oh Kenny Kenny! lol... 1-1
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Post by Les on Dec 11, 2010 14:42:56 GMT
aye oooo f@kin kenny lol
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Post by Walter Pidgeon on Dec 11, 2010 15:00:37 GMT
Useless ;D
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Post by Walter Pidgeon on Dec 11, 2010 17:01:01 GMT
Thought the vanderwheelyboys would be all over the Chelts 3.05 pre - race ?
SILVINIACO CONTI - 111 CUE CARD - 1-11 MENORAH - 12-1
I could`nt sort it out pre - race les SC looked up against giving weight race distance & OR away. Cue Card had beaten a Hobbs / Owner runner at Chepstow. Hobbs / Owner turn up again with pacemaker & Fav.
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Post by Walter Pidgeon on Dec 11, 2010 18:47:08 GMT
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Post by Arkle55 on Dec 11, 2010 19:01:32 GMT
Walter hi, What do you mean, SC had to give race distance away.
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Post by Walter Pidgeon on Dec 11, 2010 22:14:33 GMT
SC has shown his trip to be 20f so far Arkle. Four yr olds have done reasonably well in the last 10 yrs or so however 11-08 would have been a first for the age group. The trainer did well on the card but he was found to be chasing the money in this heat.
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Post by Les on Dec 12, 2010 2:23:01 GMT
or walter why bother you have a 5/6 good thing if the real master minded turns up its a good thing if it dont your on a binger
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Post by Walter Pidgeon on Dec 12, 2010 9:29:59 GMT
Aye les looks like Nicholls decision to give him an OP has worked the oracle. They are thinking about trying a Kauto Star with him in time by stepping him up in trip... 3m round Kempton beckons. Nicholls could have put thon Silviniaco Conti in Karabaks race yesterday 19k penalty value he would have carried 11-06. However he chose to drop the horse in trip with more weight picked up 16k for finishing 3rd in this race & the trainer has probably learnt more about the horse.
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Post by makingitslowly on Jan 14, 2011 13:37:46 GMT
Makingitslowly Are you still planning on stating the method in its entirety? After giving it some thought.No as I no longer see a point to the subject matter.I am of the opinion that people as a rule do not want the answers they claim to know or seek.After all if the answers are actually "known" regardless of who's side of the debate the answers support,where doe's that leave the conversation generally?The dreamers have had thier dreams shattered as it is either proved false or been exposed as a genuine edge that is soon lost,due to becoming public knowledge and over used by to many.Those that claim to know some great secret,and enjoy the banter of baiting others,would lose thier subject matter as well,along with thier internet notierity.This I believe is the basis for this "appearing" unsolved for so long. If you genuinly have all the materaial available to you that was available at the time of the letters,I find it personally ludicrous that anyone could possibbly draw a conclusion in direct confliction of my own.We "may" disagree on minor interprations but overall what is there,is impossible to argue with when checked against the evidence available. It is my opinion that the internet has been the only area where the facts become some what cloudy.This is due in no small part to the convergance of so many opinions based on "parts" that suit thier own interpratations and/or knowledge.Ego is a fickle thing that affects every single one of us to some degree or another,we get an idea and honestly believing ourselves we defend it religiously.We do this with little reliasization for the things we are ignoring,that more often than not exposes our earlier ideas as flawed from the outset. Am I just another fantasist?Have I have become a so called guru,making claims I wont substantiate?Maybe.At the end of the day the answers are there for those that gather all the evidence and will just accept what it was that was there in the first place,and most importantly ignore posts like this one,as it is purely conjecture without the presence of the evidence.
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Post by makingitslowly on Jan 14, 2011 13:42:05 GMT
Another point I should add to the person that PMed the chat request.Im very flattered but it would not be a conversation that I would feel the need to hide,should I have it.I was more than happy to discuss it freely on the forum,a decision I have know changed due to the reasons stated above.
Im sure your knowledge would be welcomed so please feel free to enter the discussion with my fellow forum members.
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Post by BC on Jan 14, 2011 13:50:32 GMT
Hi MIS I wondered where you'd gone, and whether you were still going to post the method as you see it. The method will eat you up if you're not careful! BC
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Post by Arkle55 on Jan 14, 2011 17:06:30 GMT
BC, i do'nt really think M was going to really spill any beans do you, ---. If M new anything his previous pre race selections would be a lot better ---. By the way BC are you on Kauto Star tomorrow.
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Post by BC on Jan 14, 2011 17:24:09 GMT
Hi Arkle, BC, i do'nt really think M was going to really spill any beans do you, ---. If M new anything his previous pre race selections would be a lot better --- I don't think any beans would have been spilled even if MIS had posted up his interpretation. As he says it's "purely conjecture without the presence of the evidence."However, what I would say is that, whatever your personal opinion, please be more diplomatic. Writing what you'd written (which I've edited) is inflamatory. You did the same to Bold Gait. Whether you agree or not - play nice. No, I'm not backing in any more chases. Twist Magic's recent demise has put me right off. I know injuries can happen on the flat, let alone hurdles, but steeplechases are just asking for it. BC
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Post by makingitslowly on Jan 15, 2011 9:26:46 GMT
I don't think any beans would have been spilled even if MIS had posted up his interpretation. As he says it's "purely conjecture without the presence of the evidence."However, what I would say is that, whatever your personal opinion, please be more diplomatic. Writing what you'd written (which I've edited) is inflamatory. You did the same to Bold Gait. Whether you agree or not - play nice. BC Obviously I dont know the specifics as they have been edited but this is the reason I feel Im done with VDW threads as a general rule. Previous selections have little or even nothing to do with what Ive learnt since Arkle,and of course you are making an assumption yourself now "assuming" that knowledge of the subject gleaned would improve my selection method. Arkle has proven my point from my previous posts with his response although by posting this I am doing exactly the same of course. On a final more positive point.I wish anyone who gets involved with the subject,or that remains involved all the best for the future.
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