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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:03:01 GMT
Claiming Stakes Plan.
As the title of the plan suggests, we are backing horses running in claiming stakes only.
The newspaper required to operate this system is the Daily Mirror.
Any system horse will be found in seconds and should be backed to win. To find if we have a system horse just follow these very simple rules:
1. Look for all the Claiming Stakes races. 2. Look at the forecast favourite horse. 3. Look to see if this horse is either Strongly Fancied (SF) of Fancied (F). 4. No bet if forecast odds-on. 5. Fancied (F) horses must be forecast shorter than 3/1.
If a horse fits these 5 rules then it is a system horse.
Yes, it is incredibly simple, but the beauty of it is that it works.
Any system worth following must produce a good level stake profit over a period of time and this certainly does.
For the last 21 months it has given 16 winning months and 5 losing – a level stake profit of +77
IMPORTANT NOTE: Do not back in maiden Claiming races with the words “Claiming Stakes” in the title.
This is an exceptionally simple plan, but very, very effective.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:05:40 GMT
Trading Room Secrets.
I cannot really take any credit for this particular plan as it was originally passed on to me by a very good contact of mine who held a senior position as a trading room operator with one of the big independent bookmakers. The only reason I took an interest in it was because it targeted handicaps.
Those of you who have bought books and plans off me in the past will know that I specialise in handicaps, focusing my attention on stats, figures and times etc, this however goes in completely the opposite direction, targeting horses that on form, would not exactly jump out of the page at you. The result of this is some exceptionally high priced horses and an equally impressive strike rate to match with winners up to 16-1.
What this plan does is put you on to horses that on some occasions may be forecast as the complete outsider but are actually fancied to run much better than their bare form would have us believe. A lot of gambles are landed by horses that have been specially laid out by connections that have run the horse in such a way to ensure that when the gamble is landed, it is done so when big prices can be taken.
When following any system, you are bound to get losing runs, and this plan is no different, however I know of no other systems around that can produce a strike rate like this at such big prices.
The Rules.
You need to use the Racing Post or have access to the Racing Post website to use this plan.
1. The plan has been written for flat racing only.
2. Target Handicaps only and only consider all aged handicaps and do not include 3year old only handicaps. Do not use selling handicap races.
3. We are looking for horses that start at considerably shorter prices than those that are forecast in the Racing Post. The criteria put in place for this particular plan is set out as follows. The following table shows you the maximum price you can back a selection at in comparison to the forecast price in the Racing Post, so if for example a horse is forecast at 10-1 in the Racing Post it becomes a bet if the on course price gets down to 6-1 or less and it meets with all the other criteria in the plan.
Racing Post Forecast. Maximum on course price to qualify. 6-1 7-2 13-2 7-2 7-1 7-2 15-2 4-1 8-1 9-2 9-1 5-1 10-1 6-1 11-1 11-2 12-1 13-2 14-1 15-2 16-1 9-1 20-1 14-1 25-1 14-1 33-1 16-1
For Example: If a horse is forecast at 16-1 in the Racing Post but goes off at 9-1, this would be a potential qualifier providing it met with all the other rules. Obviously there will be horses that go off much shorter than half price, I have seen horses forecast at 33-1 in the Racing Post that have gone off at 6-1.
Be wary of horses that although they may be half price on course, they may still have opened up short and then prove to be big drifters in the live market. Ideally we are looking for horses that meet with the price comparison rule but are also heavily backed on course.
Important.
Using the Racing Post Top speed and post data column, make sure a trainer has not got a cross against his/her name. A yard would not be confident of landing a touch if their horses were not running to their merits. An x indicates the trainer and yard are out of form.
4. Once you have established that there is a potential qualifier based on price comparison, you need to look at the horses handicap mark. In order to qualify, a horse must be running off a mark the same or shorter than what it has previously won off.
For Example: You have identified a potential qualifier and it is running off a handicap mark of 73. You now look at its last winning mark to see if has won off a mark the same or lower. All this information is found on the form pages of the Racing Post and would be set out as follows:
Top Seed.
OR 50. All flat races. 80 5/06 Gdwd 73 4/06 Bath
As you can see Top Seed is running off an official rating today of 50 (OR50) but had previously won a race at Goodwood off a mark of 80 so would therefore qualify as a bet. Do not consider a horse that is running off a mark that is higher than what it has previously won off. There are exceptions to this rule for 4 and 5 year old horses which I will cover in rule 5.
Top Seed was forecast at 16-1 in the Racing Post but went off at 7-1 and therefore a qualifier.
Result. Top Seed won 7-1.
Another point that you need to take into consideration when looking at the weights is if the horse is ridden by a claiming rider as this has an effect on the handicap mark. If a horse is running off a mark of 75 but is ridden by a 5lb claiming rider, this brings the mark down to 70 which could make the difference between horses being a qualifier or not so always take note of this. One rule which I have implemented myself is not to include 7lb claimers in this rule as I feel they are too inexperienced and therefore not always value for their claim. I have implemented this rule in all the handicap plans that I have written myself and although you will miss a few winners, it will in the long run pay dividends.
5. There are some extra rules to take into account when assessing a 4 year old and 5 year old horse running in a handicap. The reason for this is that as relatively young horses they may not have won a handicap yet or if it has, it may still have considerable improvement to come and therefore may be capable of winning off a mark higher than what it is running off today. Because of this, the following rules need to be applied when assessing the merits of a 4yo and 5yo.
A 4yo or 5yo will qualify if it is still a maiden and not yet won a handicap providing it meets with the other rules.
A 4yo or 5yo will qualify if it has previously won a handicap and is now running off a mark which is no more than 6lb higher than its previous win. Running off a slightly higher weight can be accepted for a 4yo and 5yo as they are still young enough to have enough improvement in them to win off a higher mark than what they have been given. If it is strongly backed on course, this would also indicate that it is expected to defy a higher handicap mark.
Example. A 4yo qualifier is running off a mark of 80 but its last winning mark was 74 so it is 6lb higher but will qualify as we allow 6lb extra to compensate for any potential improvement.
6. Do not consider any horse that is forecast to start any bigger that 33-1 in the Racing Post. This means the maximum priced winner you will back is no bigger than 16-1.
7. Beware of races where there are a lot of non runners as this will of course affect the prices on course against what they were originally forecast in the morning before any non-runners were announced.
8. In the event of there being more than one qualifier in a race, you can either split stakes to cover them or leave the race alone. Obviously we are dealing with horses at very good prices with this plan and a very good profit can still be taken by backing more than one qualifier in a race. This does not happen often but it is a shame to miss a good priced winner by leaving a race alone because of more than one qualifier. I personally prefer there to be just one qualifier in any one race.
9. When monitoring the live betting market, I use the sporting life website which gives you the up to date live on course betting shows. By monitoring the live on course prices you can quickly identify if any horse meets the criteria by looking at the forecast SP in the Racing Post and comparing it with the current on course price that is available just before the off.
10. Leave placing your bet as late as possible because a lot of horses can shorten up considerably just before the off and a horse shortening a couple of points can often make the difference between a horse being a bet or not.
Bending the rules.
I have not written this particular plan myself but I have been instrumental in putting it down on paper in an easy to understand format. Having monitored this plan for some time now I do feel there are occasions when it is beneficial to bend the rules slightly regarding the horses handicap mark. Rule 4 states that you should not consider any horse that is running off a mark higher than what it has won off before unless it is a 4yo or 5yo in which case an allowance of 6lb is allowed to take in to account any improvement that may be forthcoming because it is a relatively young horse with the potential for improvement. I believe this rule can also be applied to certain older horses especially if they are heavily backed on course. Sometimes a horse may be half price on course compared to the forecast SP in the Racing Post but that is the price it opens up at and not weight of on course money that has bought it into that price. When this happens it is just a difference of opinion between on course bookmakers and the Racing Post forecast and the on course betting does not indicate that the horse is strongly fancied. Ideally we want a horse that is almost half price or more on course than it is forecast in the Racing Post and that is also heavily supported on course.
I think an exception needs to be taken when a horse is also very heavily backed on course. Take Napoletano for example who ran on April 27th. This horse was forecast 10-1 in the Racing Post and was very heavily supported into 9-2 on course indicating that it was fancied to run a very big race.
Napoletano was a 7yo running off a mark of 56. It had previously won a handicap off a mark of 54 so in effect it was running off a mark only 2lb higher than what it has ever won off and would therefore be eliminated from our calculations if we follow the rules to the letter.
Even though Napoletano was 2lb higher than what it has ever won off, connections must have felt he was capable of defying his current handicap mark or he would not have been so strong in the market. It is circumstances like this when I really think we need to read a bit more in to the market signals even if the horse is a few lbs above a weight it has proved it can win off.
Good luck with this system, it will provide you with many big priced winners that you would otherwise not consider based on form alone.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:06:42 GMT
The Jameson System.
The Jameson System is specifically designed for use with Handicap Races, and as such it is not a system which will provide you with a bet every day, or perhaps not even every week for long periods of time for that matter, but it is certainly worth keeping to hand because when it does provide you with a selection then you will have a very good chance indeed of collecting.
It works for both Flat and National Hunt Racing so if you exercise just a little bit of patience it will soon be second nature for you to operate it throughout the year.
If you are a regular punter the chances are that you watch many races, either on track, at home on TV or on SIS at the bookmakers. How many times have you been watching the finish of a race and said to yourself: “Ah! Old so-and-so is finishing strongly, it looks like he is ready to win a race, P11 back him next time out.” However, next time out old “so-and-so” is entered in one of the big handicaps, cannot quite handle the better class animals and duly fails to win, at this point we forget all about him and continue our never ending quest for winners, quite unaware that we have probably eliminated just what we are looking for from our thoughts.
Let me elaborate a little.
Horses cannot, no matter what “class” of animal they are, be 100% fit ALL of the time, this is especially the case when they are frequently running in handicap company. So when you see a horse like old “so-and-so” running on strongly at the finish, it is, as you correctly assume, a good indication that he is running into form and is worth keeping a very close eye on. But we must do this for more than just one race.
Remember, anything can happen in a horse race, no matter how meticulously an animal is prepared to land a race, that horse can be badly drawn, it can be going for a gap when it closes and effectively ends it’s challenge, the jockey can simply fall off. Anything can, and frequently does, happen to prevent a well prepared horse from winning its target race.
However, if you continue to follow that horse, for a limited period of course, it will land its desired win and you will be handsomely rewarded for your faith.
It is worthwhile remembering also that time and time again, a badly hampered horse will, somehow, manage to battle it’s way through to a place. So, keep your eyes open when watching handicap races and if you see a horse like “so-and-so” finishing strongly, follow him and back him EACH-WAY in his next THREE races.
It is virtually certain that you will at the very least recoup your stake if he only manages a place, but he will almost certainly win one of those three races AND at an attractive price which will show you a very healthy profit overall.
Remember.
Make a note of any improving horses in Handicap races. Once noted back them EACH-WAY for their next THREE races, but do not forget to STOP AT A WIN.
Important note.
DO NOT stop at a PLACE, only STOP AT A WIN.
You must always remember that these horses are being prepared to win a specific target race or to land a pre-planned gamble, and if everything goes to plan and they do manage to win first or second time out, then the chances are that they are going to be eased off until preparations are ready for them to go and attempt to win their next target race.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:07:08 GMT
The Gold Nugget System.
THE GOLD NUGGET SYSTEM operates on an occasional, rather than everyday basis, but if you operate it wisely it will give you an extraordinarily high proportion of winners. Any Daily newspaper with a Horse-Racing section will suffice, you do not need one of the specialist Racing papers to successfully operate this system. You can pinpoint the most likely races that you will be interested in quite quickly by looking through the betting forecast in the racing pages. Make a note of any forecast favourite in the 2-1 to 5-4 region. These, and only these, are the horses that we are interested in. To maximise it’s potential you need to take notice of the betting as each of these races comes up, which means either being on-course, in a Bookmakers or, if you prefer, you are able to operate it just as successfully from home with a telephone, television with teletext facility and a credit/debit account. When the market opens on our chosen race, watch how the favourite reacts, if it “drifts” out to 5-2 or more immediately eliminate that race. We are no longer interested in having a bet. However, if the price of our horse, the forecast favourite, begins to “harden”, then keep a very close eye on it because, if all the following rules are met to our satisfaction, we could decide to have a bet on it
BETTING ADVICE.
1. Wait as long as possible before placing your bet. 2. If the price drifts out, ignore it for betting purposes. Just watch and see what happens, the chances are it will lose. 3. If the price hardens to a MINIMUM of 4-6, then this is the one to be on, this is why you must hold back from placing your bet for as long as possible. 3. If the price hardens to less than 4-6, DO NOT BET. 4. There is no such thing as a certainty in Horse-Racing arid very short priced losers HURT. 5. With THE GOLD NUGGET SYSTEM you have got a very good indicator of when a horse is well fancied to win, and if you are cautious about the price you act upon, you will show a good profit.
But you must be patient and only bet when the circumstances, and therefore the price, is acceptable for you to do so. Better than evens on a horse when it is as strongly fancied as this represents excellent value, even as low as 4-6 can give a healthy return because you will have a very high percentage of winners. However, lower than 4-6 offers appalling value for money under any circumstances, so exercise discretion and wait for another race when ALL the signals are in your favour and you can get the value you want. Statistics show that you can fully expect 75% of winners from THE GOLD NUGGET SYSTEM.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:07:33 GMT
Handy Hints For Handicap Hurdles.
Here are some handy hints for those who wish to be in handicap hurdles.
1. First and foremost keep stakes to a minimum if betting in handicap hurdles however good a horse’s chance seems to be. Appearances can be deceptive in races of this kind.
2. In races over shorter distances up to 2m 2f (2 miles is the in-between distance) the ability to quicken at the end of a hurdle race is an important ability, far more so than in chasing. Any evidence of such speed in a horse’s racing record is a great sign and when it is combined with either good or improving form last time out, demonstrates that it may have what it takes to win.
3. There is a significant, statistically favoured weight range in handicap hurdles beginning somewhere just below top weight. This means that horses near the bottom of the weights in these races are not likely to win because they are usually outclassed.
4. When a horse is competing against seasoned animals of roughly equal ability, it will need experience and plenty of it. Few hurdlers, whatever their natural talent, realise their potential without this prerequisite. The best way to establish whether a horse has such experience is to check whether it has already won a handicap hurdle race. Irrespective of how it performed last time out and no matter what the grade of a race, no bet should be laid on a handicap hurdler which has only won, so far, in novice company.
5. A few horses are able to run up a sequence of wins in handicap hurdles since extra weight does not easily stop a horse with a measure of hurdling talent at the top of its form. A winner of a handicap hurdle may survive a quite steep rise in its official rating and still win again in the not-too-distant future, if not immediately.
6. However weight makes a significant difference in hurdle races over the longer distances, particularly when the ground is soft or heavy. Therefore, one’s approach to weight should be modified in races of 2m 6f or more.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:08:52 GMT
M678 Betting Plan.
A betting plan based on favourites and a plan to make them profitable.
Favourites as you may already know win around 34% of races overall.
That’s quite a high figure but, due to prices of some favourites, it’s not enough to make it pay by blindly backing them all. We have designed a plan whereby we still back favourites but, only in certain races. By doing this we are still getting a high proportion of winners but, eliminating lots of losers.
The method of selection is very simple but if used correctly, this system can be profitable.
THE SYSTEM
1. Back the favourite.
2. In Non-Handicap Races.
3. In fields of 6 & 7 Runners.
4. Exclude odds on favourites in fields of 6 but include them in fields of 7.
Results show good consistent profits with an average strike rate of around 35%.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:09:32 GMT
Safe Horse Betting System.
This easy to use system will enable you to pinpoint a high percentage of winners in just a few minutes per day. This method has been applied only to turf racing, but may be suitable for use on all weather racing. For turf racing it has been applied to both handicap and non handicap racing but I feel this method will do better in non handicap races.
The Rules.
1. Use the Racing Post Newspaper. 2. For each meeting in the Racing Post there is a selection box indicating the selections of 16 racing tipsters. Only consider horses that have been selected by at least 10 of these tipsters. 3. Of these horses selected by the tipsters only consider horses that are rated top on Topspeed Ratings and on Postmark Ratings. They must be top rated for both of these rather than one or the other. Note: You may get a situation where either Topspeed or Postmark makes 2 or more horses joint top rated. You only consider the joint top rated that are selected by Topspeed or Postmark – when looking at the actual ratings for each horse you may find that some of them are joint top rated. You can easily decide which of the joint top rated are selected by Topspeed or Postmark by looking at the selection box where the main selection for Topspeed or Postmark is given (even when the ratings indicate a joint top rated). 4. From the remaining selections you now only consider those horses that finished 1st 2nd 3rd in its last race which must have taken within the current season. 5. Any horse that remains is a Safe System selection.
Note: Both Topspeed and Postmark are listed in the selection box in the Racing Post. These are taken into account when counting the number of tipsters who have selected a horse. For instance if a horse is selected by 10 tipsters and 2 of these 10 are Topspeed and Postmark that is ok. If a horse is selected by 11 tipsters but not by neither Topspeed or Postmark then it does not Qualify as a bet. Firstly make sure that ten tipsters have gone for a horse before checking to see if Topspeed or Postmark have selected it.
Additional Selections – You may find a horse that qualifies under the above rules, but its last race was from the previous year. Generally speaking these are not Safe System bets however you can make an exception if the horse has run within the last 30 days under a different code. For instance if a horse qualifies under all the rules but it has not had a current season run over fences but within the last 30 days it has run on the flat then this would be a system bet, providing it finished 1st 2nd or 3rd.
Recap – Horses must be selected by at least 10 of the tipsters listed in the selection box of the Racing Post. It must have finished 1st 2nd or 3rd in its last race which must have taken place within the current season.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:10:08 GMT
Bookie Basher.
1. Newspaper required is the Racing Post.
2. Look at Forecast Favourites with odds in the range 8/11 – 9/4 inclusive.
3. The 2nd favourite must be at least 4/1.
4. The horse must have been placed in the first 3 last time out.
5. It must have run within the last 28 days.
6. It must be top-rated by POSTMARK – not joint top-rated.
7. Minimum of 5 runners – maximum of 14.
8. Must be ridden by a professional or top apprentice claiming 3 or 5lbs.
9. Must be able to handle the going:
a) If 3 or more runs in its lifetime it must have won or placed (beaten a maximum of 3 lengths) on going similar to the reported going.
b) 3-yo and older horses with less than 3 runs – no going qualification needed.
c) 2-yo with less than 3 runs must handle the going by either having won or placed (beaten max 3 lengths) on the EXACT going as shown is Racing Post.
10. Eliminate all selling races, amateur races, juvenile hurdles, novice handicap hurdles, maiden chases, and all national hunt races in August.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:12:57 GMT
The Holy Grail.
A system for selecting winning horses.
This is a horse system that has been in production for some time now. It has be fine-tuned and vetted to make sure everything is working well and genuine profits are made on a regular basis. This system could actually be described as using a bit of common sense and mixing it with a little luck. Now as most people are lacking one or the other of these, or even both if unfortunate enough, this system is certainly good news, especially for those who regard themselves as professional.
The system should work with any daily newspaper. In fact we actually used the Daily Mail to obtain our selections. The benefit of this system is that it does not give long-winded, complicated rules to follow, or even a load of scientific spiel to baffle the reader, moreover it is a logical approach and should be regarded as a great business opportunity. There are a few rules to abide by as with any system but these are what we would call relatively simple and most importantly they are rules that any person can follow and implement very quickly to find their selections for that day. Below are the rules.
Rules:
1. Only look to the principle race meeting of the day. The Daily Mail always specify which meeting is the principle one if unsure (read following notes).
2. Only horses that have won their last race are to be considered.
3. Only horses that have run this season are to be considered, i.e. they must have the little dash used on the previous form figures, to the left of the most recent run. If any symbol rather than a number 1 is next to the horse’s name then disregard it. The actual amount of days it has been since its last race is irrelevant, Sometimes this can actually be quite a high figure. Also if the horse is described as doubtful where the jockey name should be then it can be disregarded also.
4. Only horses @ 5/ 2 or over are to be considered.
5. If the favourite of the race is shorter than 8/11 then disregard race altogether i.e. 4/6 and shorter.
6. If there is more than one qualifier as can happen quite regularly, then you must stake one point on each horse to a maximum of three horses (three points). However should there still be more than three qualifiers, then you must choose the outsider ie the three with the biggest odds. If two share the same odds then this means you have to cover four. Cover all four but only stake a half point on each (two points).
7. Fields can be no more than 18 runners.
We would just like to briefly explain the afore-mentioned logic of this system before giving you the results. The reason we choose the principle meeting is that in our opinion this is where the truest racing occurs, due to the best horses and the greater prestige of the prizes. However, there is an important note to go with this rule. If say for example during the jumps season the paper signals an all weather meeting as the principle meeting then disregard and look to the jumps meeting that has the main jockeys riding. This is a very rare situation and has only happened rarely. For us it is the jumps that are priority during the jumps season and the turf during the flat season. In the winter only the second choice jockeys are used on the all-weather. Hardly a principle meeting! Of course if there are no jumps meetings and an all weather meeting is the principle one then fine, its just the other scenario you should be aware of. If a horse has won its last race then you know you are not backing a donkey so to speak. At least you know that your horse can win and that it currently is in form. To make a good profit even if you hit bad losing runs then you must get some decent priced winners. That is why you cannot back anything under 5/ 2. It also means that if you do back three horses in one race then you cannot fail to make a profit even if it is the shortest priced one that wins. More than likely though it is a bigger priced horse that will win and so give an even greater profit margin. Too many runners can again be a bit of a problem. Problems can arise due to collisions and less chance of winning if then are more horses etc. And generally if the favourite is a big odds-on, then generally it is just too reliable to oppose.
As you can see there is a logic to this approach and more importantly it works. Like most tipsters it will find you some gems with winners so far up to 33/1. Do you know many tipsters or systems that can boast these kind of prices? We certainly do not. As a note when our selections were non runners we have just omitted them from the following results. Also, we never do each way bets, only the horse winning or losing is best. If you put £100 each way on a 20/1 winner you would actually lose yourself about £1500 profit as opposed to putting the whole £200 on the nose and what is the sense in that!
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:13:57 GMT
The Faultfinder Laying System.
To find any potential selection, apply the following rules:
1) Flat All Weather racing only.
2) Handicap races only of classes 6 and 7 ( Class number is the figure in brackets immediately after the race title).
3) The horse must be carrying top, or, joint top weight.
4) It must be a previous course and distance winner, indicated by the symbol C&D after the horse’s name (Note – CD does not indicate a previous course and distance winner – it means the horse has previously won at the course and has also won at the distance, but at a different course).
If all four of the above rules are satisfied, the horse should be laid to lose I suggest one point level stake bets.
Also note the following:
a) Occasionally, there could be more then one selection in a race. If there are joint top weights and both are previous course and distance winners, lay both.
b) The top weight being considered is that allocated by the official Handicapper. Any weight allowance (e.g. apprentice jockey) should be ignored.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:17:04 GMT
The Easy Rider Horse Racing System.
Rules:
1. The races that will interest us for this are any races over any distance. Flat, Jumps and All-Weather are all fine. However, the races in question must have at least 10 declared runners.
2. Once we have determined the races which may qualify, we look at the RACING POST tips section, which is at the side of the Race card. The heading is “Tips” obviously, and then down the section there are numbers which indicate the number of times a particular horse has been selected by the newspaper tipsters.
To become a selection a horse must be selected only ONCE by a tipster. It must also be the ONLY horse in the race to have been selected once. Most races have horses with may have 2 or 3 tips and these are quite often the favourites, or very popular selections. If our horse is selected only once and is the only selection to have been, then it is the bet.
Points to note – by operating in this manner we are almost certainly backing horses which, let’s say, ARE AGAINST THE CROWD. The most popular horses selected will by nature nearly always be the favourite. Our horse will be in the value price region and when we hit the target the odds will be excellent. Stakes – I use level 1pt E/W bets and the system is very good indeed.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:18:15 GMT
Laying Outsiders.
Five simple rules:
1. Consider these NON-Handicap races only – Hurdles, Hunter Chases, National Hunt, Flat, Claiming Stakes, Maiden, Amateur.
2. Horse must have Pulled Up last time it ran.
3. Must NOT have placed in 1st 3 in run before last.
4. Last 12 months must have raced maximum of 2 times.
5. Bookmakers ‘SP must be minimum 66/1.
Results for 66/1 and up since January 1st 2000:
2435 lays : 2435 winners : 0 losers
Maidens are maiden stakes on the flat. Very rarely any.
Hurdles are ALL hurdle races that don’t have Handicap in the title so includes Amateur hurdles.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:19:00 GMT
Special Factor Staking Plan.
Background.
The Special Factor Plan was devised with two purposes in mind:
To defeat the long losing run which is the stumbling block of many systems and to enable higher stakes, than were previously used, to be placed to play up winners and winning runs in the knowledge that the long losing run would not cause the system to fail.
In a way the theories of the plan can be likened to the old saying ‘Make hay while the sun shines but save for a rainy day’. There are many, many staking plans which are used with systems to boost profits or to turn level stakes loses into winnings. Most are dangerous – things go well for a time and then the inevitable long losing run occurs to take any previously accrued profits and the operating bank and the system is dead, showing big losses.
Probably the most dangerous staking plan is the ‘doubling up’ system. Work it out for yourself – start with one point and double it up a further nine times. You will find that the tenth stake required will be 512 points and the total loss after the tenth consecutive loser would be 1023 points. Simple progressive plans such as 1,2,3,4 etc or 1-2-2-3-3 etc are less dangerous, but a winner after losers may not be enough to cover previous losses and the long losing run could still cause problems.
An important consideration in deciding which staking plan to use with your system is pattern of results combined with the average starting price the system produces. For instance, do you get regular winners, but at short prices (maybe a ‘favourites’ based system) or do you get a smaller ratio of winners but at bigger prices, or is it somewhere in between. For example, maybe you are looking for winners at say, around 10 -1. You will get some but they will be few and far between and I can assure you long losing runs will be regular and VERY LONG.
Application of the ‘Special Factor’.
To illustrate how the ‘Special Factor’ rules apply, l will use the ‘Retrieve Staking Plan’ (which I will explain fully later) but can I stress that the principles of the Special Factor rules can be applied to most staking plans – again, more on that later.
l have used a fictitious set of 50 consecutive results. There are 15 winners and 35 losers, the average price used throughout is 2 – 1 (So this would probably be a ‘favourites’ based system) and there is a consecutive losing run of l2 between bets 34 and 45. The sequence of 50 bets would show a level stake loss so I have not used a particularly favourable set of results. Considering that the price of 2-1 is fairly short, a consecutive losing run of twelve should not happen too often – if it does, the selection method is wrong and should be abandoned. Remember also that any betting system should use an ‘operating bank’ – in my examples the bank is 500 points. The example sheet shows how using the basic ‘Retrieve Staking Plan’ the whole bank is LOST after bet No. 45.
Whereas by using the ‘Special Factor’ rules, the system carries on successfully through to bet No. 50, the whole of the operating bank is intact and a profit of 56.5 points has been made – and this from a fairly poor set of results.
Can I stress that in both cases the operating bank is exactly the same – 500 points. l am not asking you to use a higher bank to operate my plan.
Let me now explain how the basic ‘Retrieve Staking Plan’ works and I will then go on to tell you how to apply the ‘Special Factor’ rules. The aim is to win one point per bet and recover losses accrued during any losing run. The amount of the stake will be dictated by the forecast S.P. In theory then, winnings from the 50 bets will be 50 points (this may vary slightly depending how the forecast S.P. compares to actual S.P.) – providing you have survived any losing run.
Explanation of the System:
Refer to the analysis sheet – columns l-5. On bet No. 1 the aim is to win I point, the forecast S.P. is 2-1 so the stake required is 0.5 point. The bet loses – you have not won the 1 point aim and your loss is 0. 5 points.
On bet No. 2 the aim is the same – I point plus the one point you did not win on bet No. 1 plus the half point loss making a total aim of 2.5 points on bet No. 2. The forecast S.P. is again 2-l so the actual required stake is I.25 points. However, in order not to make the figures too complicated I have used a policy of ‘rounding up’ to the nearest 0.5 point so a stake of 1.5 points is placed.
Bet No. 2 again loses so the aim for bet No. 3 is now 5 points (the one point aim not won on bets Nos. 1 & 2, the one point aim for bet No. 3 and the two previous losses of 0.5 points and 1.5 points). Again the forecast price is 2-1 so the required stake is 2.5 points.
The bet wins at 2-I, 5 points profit are made meaning that previous losses have been recovered and you are left with 3 points clear profit and have achieved the aim after 3 bets.
At this point it may be as well to work your way down columns I-5 to familiarise yourself with this method. You will also see that, having encountered a consecutive losing run of 12 the whole of the 500 point operating bank is lost after bet No. 45.
Now the application of the ‘Special Factor’ rules to the Retrieve staking plan.
First of all split the 500 Point operating bank. Place 250 points in the ‘Basic bank’ (column 10) and 250 points into the ‘Reserve bank’ (column 11).
Now increase the aim for each bet from one point to three points. When the bet loses deduct half the lost stake from the ‘Basic Bank’ and half the lost stake from the ‘Reserve Bank’.
When the bet wins place half the winnings in the ‘Basic Bank’ and half the winnings in the ‘Reserve Bank’
To see how it works compare columns 1 to 4 with columns 6 to 9. You will see that after each winner, winnings in column 10 are already one and a half times winnings in column 3 and at the same time you are building up the reserve bank (column 11) – also from the increased winnings – to help cope with any future losing run.
Beating a losing run.
Now the crunch! The long losing run of 12 occurs. On the Basic Retrieve Staking Plan, after bet No. 45 all of any previously accrued winnings, plus the whole 500 point bank is LOST!
The principle of the ‘Special Factor’ plan is to defeat the losing run before it defeats you! This is why a ‘Reserve Bank’ has been created. Money from the reserve bank will now be allocated to the ‘Basic Bank’ (column 10) thereby reducing the aim, rather than allowing the aim and therefore the required stakes to reach astronomical levels.
Remember that the money given by the ‘Reserve Bank’ to the “Basic Bank’ is out of increased winnings, which has been saved for that rainy day.
Identifying a danger signal.
So, how do we know at what point money from the Reserve Bank should be allocated to the Basic Bank? After all, we do not know how long the losing run will go on. It might be less than the 12 in my example or it might be more. Therefore we have to look for a Danger Signal, a point at which to provide ‘insurance’ against the losing run continuing further. In my plan the ‘danger signal’ occurs when the next aim reaches at least one third of the amount in the reserve bank. (This will still leave approximately two thirds of the reserve bank intact should another long losing run occur fairly quickly).
In my example the ‘danger signal’ occurs after bet No. 39. The next aim has become 101 points (bet No.39 – column 9) and the amount in the reserve bank is 261 points (bet No.39 – column 11). Therefore an adjustment of 98 points is required in order to reduce the ‘aim’ on bet no. 40 to the basic 3 points. Therefore 49 points (previously won*) will be taken from the reserve bank and ‘given’ to the Basic Bank leaving the figures after bet No. 39 as follows:
Next aim – 3 points (column 9), Basic Bank 310 (column 10), and Reserve Bank 212 (column 11).
Now, you may say that in this example, not all the money taken from the Reserve Bank was from accumulated winnings to date – some of it was taken from the originally created Reserve Bank. But bear this in mind:
I have not asked you to increase the original 500-point bank and if the losing run had occurred later (not necessarily in the 50 bet sequence shown) you may well have accumulated enough ‘reserve’ winnings to use without reducing the amount of the original Reserve Bank.
Flexibility.
You could also introduce some flexibility into the plan – that would be your decision. For instance you may decide that after the point at which you have used some of the Reserve Bank you could alter the split, i.e, 1 point allocated to the ‘Basic’ winnings and 2 points to ‘Reserve’ winnings until the point at which the Reserve Bank was back at the same level as the Basic bank.
Also if you consider that your selection method is better than the set of results I have based my example on you may feel confident enough to increase your aim – say to 4 points – placing 2 points in the Basic Bank and 2 points in the Reserve Bank. But that is up to you.
Another point to bear in mind – What would have been the situation if the losing run had not occurred and the ‘danger signal’ had not shown up in my example. You would have won approximately 150 points compared to the 50 points won using the ‘basic retrieve staking plan’.
In summary.
I mentioned earlier that the rules of the ‘Special Factor’ could be applied to many other staking plans. The principle is the same – increase your stake (to play up the winners) but allocate some of the increased winnings to a reserve bank. For instance if you are using the l-2-2-3-3 etc. sequence this will now become 3-6-6-9-9 etc. Again remember to establish the ‘Danger point’. You could do a ‘paper’ exercise to establish where the ‘Danger point’ would occur on whichever plan you are using.
I first devised this plan in 1978. It still works as well as ever with only minor changes to update it. You may think that the analysis sheet looks complicated but I have tried to guide you through it in these notes.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:21:03 GMT
The Revelation System.
Working from the Racing Post go through each meeting marking off all races with 13 or more runners. Ignore any non runners on the day, so long as there are 13+ runners listed theses are the races to concentrate on. Mark all horses that ran 5th last time out. Then apply the following rules:
1. All selections must have run within the last 60 days.
2. All starting prices MUST fall within the range 9/1 and 14/1 (inclusive)
3. Where 2 or more horses qualify within the same race the stakes are still kept the same i.e. if you are betting in £20 units, £20 is bet on each horse.
4. Looking back at the last race (i.e. when the horse ran 5th) make a note of the starting price. The previous SP can move up or down by four points only. For example, a horse whose previous SP was 16/1 can move down a maximum of 4 points, thus anything below 12/1 in the coming race is no bet. If it moved down 2 points it would be 14/1 and qualify as it is within the 9/1 – 14/1 range. Similarly, if the horse was 7/1 last time out it could move to a maximum of 11/1 so effectively you would bet if the SP was 9/1, 10/1 or 11/1. So in practise any horse whose previous price was below 5/1 is ignored and any horse above 16/1. All you have to remember is that for a bet to be on is that the previous price can move up or down by four point and so long as it falls within the given 9-14/1 range. As we stated the system is selective and some days there will be no bets, but as you can see from the enclosed results it is very effective. If a losing run does occur do NOT panic, as with most systems clusters of results easily take care of these, especially if you are betting on high priced horses. If you are unable to see `live` prices simply mark your betting slip with a proviso as follows.
If SP under 9/1 no bet. If SP above (then whatever price has been calculated, but never above 14/1) no bet.
As there are rarely more than two bets a day, this is not a problem as most bookies are happy with this. Try to use more than one bookmaker.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:21:42 GMT
The Mensa Systems.
System 1 – The Surefire Betting System Type of racing: National Hunt only. Turf only. Type of races: Handicap hurdles only, do NOT use novice or selling handicaps. Paper needed: Daily Mirror. System source: Check the days handicap hurdles, basic bets are spotform top rated (indicated by black spot) and last time out winners (current season only), best bets are Strongly Fancied (indicated by SF). Recommended stakes, minimum 1 point, maximum 4 points as follows; add one point for each of the following tipsters; Newsboy, Bouverie, Northern Correspondent and Strongly Fancied. Staking: Basic bets and best bets to level stakes OR recommended stakes. Recommended odds: Evens or better.
System 2 – The “Seller” Betting System Type of racing: Flat Racing only. Turf only. Type of races: All non handicap sellers, do NOT use handicaps. (Selling races indicated by (S)). Paper needed: Daily Mirror. System source: Check the days non handicap sellers, bet on any horse that has a spotform TOP rating (indicated by a black spot) of 32 or higher. Staking: Level stakes. Recommended odds: 4-6 or better.
System 3 – The “Inside Info” Betting System Type of racing: Flat Racing only. Turf only. Type of races: All races containing two year olds. Paper needed: Daily Mirror. System source: Check all 2yo’s, bet on any 2yo that is Strongly Fancied (indicated by SF), American bred (indicated by USA) and making its debut (first run in public). For extra selections use Fancied (indicated by F) as well as Strongly Fancied. Staking: Level stakes. Recommended odds: Evens or better.
System 4 – The “Fit And Fancied” Betting System Type of racing: Flat and National Hunt. Turf and All Weather. Type of races: Flat; all handicaps except sellers. National Hunt; all handicaps except sellers. Paper needed: Daily Mirror. System source: Check the days handicaps, bet on any horse that is Strongly Fancied (indicated by SF), a winner last time out and is carrying a penalty (indicated by 3lb ex, 5lb ex etc.). Staking: Level stakes. Recommended odds: Evens or better.
System 5 – The “On The Mark” Betting System Type of racing: Flat and National Hunt. Turf and All Weather. Type of races: Flat and National Hunt; all handicaps. Paper needed: Racing Post (use your bookmakers copy). System source: Check ‘Postmarks’ daily NAP selection, bet on Postmarks NAP only if it is a winner last time out and carrying a penalty (indicated by 3lb ex, 5lb ex etc.). Staking: Level stakes. Recommended odds: Evens or better.
System 6 – The “Bottom Of The Class” Betting System Type of racing: National Hunt only. Turf Only. Type of races: Handicap hurdle and Handicap Chases, do not use novice handicaps or selling handicaps. Paper needed: Daily Mirror. System source: Check the days handicaps, bet on any horse that has a spotform TOP rating (indicated by black spot) of 41 or higher and is carrying only TEN STONE (10-00), also bet on any horse that has a SECOND rating (one away from top rating) of 40 or higher and is carrying only TEN STONE (10-00). Staking: Level stakes. Recommended odds: 4/6 or better.
System 7 – The “Spot-On” Betting System Type of races: Flat racing only. All Weather only. Type of races: All handicaps except sellers. Paper needed: Daily Mirror. System source: Check the days handicaps, bet on any horse that is spotform TOP rated (indicated by black spot) and last time out winners (current season only) and is a course and distance winner (indicated by CD). Staking: Level stakes. Recommended odds: Evens or better.
System 8 – The “Speedform One” Betting System Type of racing: Flat and National Hunt. Turf and All Weather. Type of races: Flat; all non handicaps. National hunt; all non handicaps. Do NOT use handicaps. Paper needed: Daily Mirror. System source: Check the daily ‘Speedhorse’ selection, bet on the ‘Speedhorse’ only if it is spotform Top rated (indicated by black spot) in a non handicap. Staking: Level stakes. Recommended odds: 4/6 or better.
System 9 – The “Speedform Two” Betting System Type of racing: Flat and National Hunt. Turf and All Weather. Type of races: Flat; all non handicaps. National hunt; all non handicaps. Do NOT use handicaps. Paper needed: Racing Post (use your bookmakers copy). System source: Check Topspeeds daily NAP selection, bet on Topspeeds NAP only is also TOP rated (or joint top) by Postmark in a non handicap. Staking: Level stakes. Recommended odds: 4/6 or better.
System 10 – The “On The Spot” Betting System Type of racing: Flat and National Hunt. Turf and All Weather. Type of races: Flat and National Hunt; all handicaps. Paper needed: Daily Mirror System Source Check the daily ‘Topspot’ selection, bet on ‘Topspot’ only if it is a last time out winner and carrying a penalty (indicated by 3lb ex, 5lb ex etc.). Staking: Level stakes. Recommended odds: Evens or better.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:23:00 GMT
The Henderson Handicap System.
The Henderson Handicap System concentrates solely on Handicap races. It will operate just as successfully for the National Hunt season as the Flat season, so you can now enjoy making profits right throughout the year.
You do not need a specialist Racing paper to operate it, an ordinary Daily newspaper with a Horse racing section will be adequate for your needs.
The Henderson Handicap System seeks to search out the quality horse in a Handicap race.
As far as Handicaps are concerned, it is general knowledge that the better a horse has been performing, the the more weight it has to carry. So therefore the better horses in a Handicap should be those with the most weight to carry. But statistics prove that simply by blindly backing the top weight in Handicap races will not provide you with profits over a long period of time.
The Henderson Handicap System will, however, show you just how to separate the top weights that are the genuine class animals, from the top weights that are just one of the bunch.
It is a fact, and one maybe not everyone is aware of, that there are some horses that run in Handicaps that are so far ahead of the rest of the animals in the race that even by being saddled with a thundering great weight, it will not stop them from winning.
In other words – THEY ARE JUST TOO GOOD!
It is these horses that we are seeking, and The Henderson Handicap System will provide them for you.
Selection Method:
1. Go through the race card of each meeting for that day, make a note of every Handicap race. 2. Make a note of the weight that the TOP WEIGHT is carrying. 3. Make a note of the weight that the SECOND TOP WEIGHT is carrying. 4. Subtract the second top weight from the top weight and make a note of the DIFFERENCE. 5. Repeat this procedure for every Handicap race of the day.
The system selection is the TOP WEIGHT that is set to carry the biggest margin of weight over its nearest (second top weight) rival.
In the unlikely event of two races producing the same result, select the race with the closest to 8 runners.
If there is still a tie, select the race with the most prize money.
This horse then is the system selection and is the one bet of the day.
Staking advice.
Place your bet to win unless the price is better than 5/1, in which case, providing of course that there are sufficient runners, back your selection EACH WAY.
You will get some tremendous value animals running for you by using The Henderson Handicap System.
Summary.
Remember, the horse that the system selects for you is the class animal in the race, otherwise they would not be carrying top weight. By restricting our selections to those with the biggest weight difference, we are surely putting our money on the horse which is that much more superior to even its nearest rival.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:23:26 GMT
The Brown Jack.
1. Results are obtained by use of the Daily Mail newspaper.
2. To obtain the one named horse for the day, proceed as follows:- (a) Below each race the Daily Mail gives where the favourite finished in previous years (normally 7 years results). Go through each card and find the race that the favourite won most times. (b) Repeat the procedure and find the race where the favourite finished second most times.
3. The race for the day will be that with the highest figure ie. The race with the most wins for the favourite or the race with the most seconds. In the event of a race having an equal number of wins and seconds then discard that race. In the event of there being two races with an equal number of wins and seconds then give preference to the race with favourite wins.
4. The one named bet will be as follows:- If the selected race is that in which the favourite has won most times, then back the Named Forecast Favourite, if joint favourites then ignore that race and go on to the next qualifier. If the selected race is that in which the favourite finished second most times then back the horse quoted as Clear Second Favourite, again if Joint Second Favourite then ignore that race. The reason for this bet is that in a good race for backers the most likely horse to beat the favourite is the second favourite and over the years the Daily Mail betting forecast has proved to be the most accurate.
5. The following exceptions must be adhered to:- (a) No bet if less than 3 years results. (b) No bet if less than 2 wins or 2 seconds. (c) No bet if the horses has never run before. (d) No bet if quoted at odds-on.
6. In the event of a tie, give preference to:- (a) Non Handicap race over a Handicap race. (b) The race with the lowest added prize money. (c) The smallest field. (d) The shortest price
Note, if you have discarded any race related to rule 5, then automatically go on to the next best race. Rule 2 should have a ‘rider’, in the event of a race having been split, then count each division as half a race, in other words if the favourite results were 0011101.0 the last race was split and so the total wins would be 3.1/2, this happens seldom and is easily picked out in the Daily Mail as when a race has missed a year they put a dash and when it is split they put a dot.
Addition to Rules:
In the event of a selected race being run in two or more divisions then take the shortest priced horse provided it qualifies i.e. has run before. Should it not have run before then ignore all divisions of that particular race and go on to the next best race.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:24:29 GMT
The Professional Horse Racing System.
Shows how the experts make money from two-year-olds on the flat
METHOD OF SELECTION
1. Betting is confined to races for two-year-olds only of all kinds, including nurseries.
2. To qualify a two-year-old must be the outright winner of two consecutive races at any point in its first season of racing.
3. Qualifiers are backed on their subsequent outings until they lose or record three further successive wins. In this connection dead heats and disqualifications from first place are counted as wins.
METHOD OF STAKING
1. There is a maximum possible total of 4 points on each qualifier made up as follows:
2. There is a 1 point stake on each outing of each horse as long as it remains a qualifier that is as long as it goes on winning up to three consecutive victories.
3. In addition, there is a 1 point treble on the three system races of each qualifier. A successful treble only results if a horse wins all three races as a system qualifier.
NOTES FOR OPERATORS
The professional backer makes money from horses in several ways. In the first place, he is “in the know” to an extent that no average punter can be. In the second, he is prepared to place big sums in the hope of a percentage return, often supporting several horses in the same race to take maximum advantage of the differing rates of odds available around the ring.
This kind of information, fascinating as it is, has little value to the amateur punter, but there is one trick of the professional trade that every-one can cash in on. I refer to the notorious liking of these experts for two-year-olds.
It is almost certainly true to say that form in two-year-old races is more reliable than in any other kind of event. There are several reasons for this. In the first place, a two-year-old is an enthusiastic animal. It can be depended on to give its best each time it runs – “not genuine” and “non-trier” are epithets which one only hears applied to experienced horses. Second, most two-year-old races are run over a straight course, and this uniformity makes for more reliability in running.
Similarly most juvenile events until later in the season are decided over five or six furlongs – there is no great variation in distance to throw the backer off the scent. Finally, weight seems to have little “stopping” effect on a good youngster – penalties in non-handicaps are a recommendation rather than a warning signal, and even in handicaps, that is nurseries, well-fancied horses with good form and big weights are more often successful than not. A good system confined to two-year-olds must be well worth its keep.
The one I have in mind is based on the fact that good two-year-olds often run up long winning sequences. There have been instances of youngsters getting into double figures of wins in their first season’s racing, but obviously these are exceptions, and The Professional horse racing system sets its sights a lot lower than that. It assumes that a good two-year-old is capable of running up a maximum sequence of five consecutive victories.
The number of youngsters that actually achieve this target in the course of a season will be small, a half a dozen at most, but assuming the backer can be sure of being on all such youngsters, six of these per season virtually guarantees a big profit, provided that the losses incurred from the inevitable failures are not too great. If the failures, that is the horses which fall short of the five-win maximum, but win a number of races nonetheless, if these can be made to show a profit also, however small, then evidently we have a system with a very high profit potential.
The problem of course is to locate the two-year-olds capable of achieving the feat of a five-timer. Selective criteria which aim to isolate those two-year-olds LIKELY to do so are worth-less, for quite clearly, however good the criteria employed, complete success cannot be guaranteed. Indeed, if, from the hundreds in training, I picked say fifty youngsters I thought capable of winning five races off the reel, I could count myself lucky if I found even one that actually went on to perform the feat. At the same time, it would be wholly unprofitable to back every two-year-old on every outing in order to be sure of being on the tiny minority that do.
Logically the only way of ensuring the inclusion of this minority without the sacrifice of profitability arising from backing shoals of losers is to select only those horses which are already some way towards achieving the target. Hence the basic systems rule. Pick out only those horses which have already won two races and follow them in their next three. This makes it probable that you will have a series of winning trebles in the course of a season from a relatively small body of selections and that every two-year-old which eventually wins five in a row is included in it.
Furthermore, a 1 point stake on each qualifier as long as it goes on winning means that horses which fail to achieve the ultimate goal, yet record sequences of three or four victories, will at least pay for their keep, and possibly provide sufficient profit to offset the cost of complete failures which lose their first race as a system qualifier.
Finally, as way of making the operation of the system absolutely clear, I recall the case several years ago of a high-class animal which later went on to win a 2000 Guineas. As a two-year-old this horse became a system qualifier after winning two races in mid-summer. It won its next outing at 3/1. This meant a profit of 3 points from that race for the 1 point single, with an additional 4 points to go onto its next race, the second leg of the system treble. This it won, again at 3/1, which produced a further 3 points from the single, and there was now 16 points to be staked on the final race in the treble. Another victory, this time at 11/2, gave another 5£ points from the single bet. The total profit accruing from the successful treble was 103 points. Thus that horse alone was worth 114£ points (3+3+5£+103) to operators of The Professional horse racing system.
Prices in this example were extremely good, and one would be wrong to expect trebles of more than 100/1 every time, but take it from me, half a dozen trebles, even at lesser odds, will be quite enough to produce a good seasonal profit, whether the “failures” make the expected contribution or not. The Professional horse racing system is for serious punters who look upon horses as a medium of investment and act accordingly.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:25:32 GMT
The 500/1 Betting Plan.
Introduction.
The purpose of this plan is to consistently locate winning fourfold accumulators. The underlying aim is to locate winning fourfolds with odds in excess of 500/1 – hence the name THE 500/1 PLAN. The accumulators this plan produces are not always quite as profitable as 500/1, but if you use the plan correctly, the minimum returns will be at least 250/1. This plan really is that profitable!
You cannot expect the 500/1 plan to be always winning, but at the kind of adds you’ll get on winning days, you need only the occasional success to stay well and truly in profit. Having said this, if you apply the principles of the plan with care, you may be surprised at just how consistent it can be.
You will not need a large bank of money to bet with to operate this plan, you will only be placing comparatively small stakes each day you decide to bet. Neither will you need to use any expensive staking plans, (increasing stakes after losing days etc.). You can decide initially what unit stake you can afford and stick to that unit stake until your winnings allow you to increase it. One word of caution, don’t be too ambitious when deciding what unit to use at the beginning. Make sure you can afford to suffer a few losing days before you start getting the big returns. There is nothing to say that one of your first fourfolds wont win and in such a case you will be off to a flying start and you should then always have sufficient funds to finance your betting, but “sods law” dictates that if you budget your funds to allow you to withstand an initial losing run of ten days, then the first successful accumulator you select will be on the eleventh!
For the purposes of this booklet, I have used a unit stake of £1.00. This would entail having to bet £6.00 plus tax per day – you’ll understand why later. Obviously you can adjust the unit stake to suit your own circumstances.
One final point, although there is no reason why this plan can’t be used on any racing day, it is best to limit it to days when there are plenty of races to choose from, Fridays, Saturdays, Bank Holidays etc.
THE 500/1 PLAN.
A fourfold accumulator usually entails selecting one horse to win in each of four separate races. All four horses chosen have to win, if not then the bet is lost.
The odds on correctly selecting four winners from four races are huge. Even the most knowledgeable racing enthusiast would find it impossible to select four straight winners with any regularity. Even if you just picked four odds-on favourites, it would be a rare day that all four came home in front – only about 50-60% of odds-on actually win!
Using reasonable selection methods, most gamblers should be able to pick two or even three winners from four races from time to time, but it is getting a fourth winner that is the problem. How many times have you said “just one horse let me down”?
Each element of an accumulator bet increases the risk of that bet losing greatly, but this risk can be significantly reduced if we select more than one runner in each element of the bet.
Imagine if instead of just one horse in each race you selected two or three. If in each element of your accumulator any one of three horses you selected could win, then even if you made your selections by sticking a pin in the race card and thus produced three runners in each of four races, you would have a reasonable chance of winning.
Unfortunately, as you have no doubt realised, it is more than a little impractical to actually bet on any one of three horses winning in each part of a fourfold. The number of bets needed to cover all the possible winning combinations would be much too great to make this a viable possibility (81 bets actually), but I am sure you can see the principle of how increasing your selections in each element of a combination, greatly reduces the risks of your bet losing.
Although we may not be able to make multiple selections in every part of an accumulator, we can make more than one choice in at least some of the elements. Good selection methods will help us to reduce the need for too many selections. The principle of the plan is that we combine thoughtful, informed selections with some multiple options, working together this will greatly increase our chances of winning.
There are a great many different combinations of bets we can use, e.g. two selections in each of the four races, this would require a total of 16 different bets (still a little too many), or maybe just selecting just one runner in each of the first three races combined with five options in the last race, this would only need 5 different bets to be placed, but it isn’t the most reasoned way of doing things.
The format I suggest requires placing just 6 different bets, but I feel that this format provides the right balance between intelligent selection methods and the use of multiple options.
This is what I propose doing:
In two of the races we make just one selection. In the third race we pick two horses and in the remaining race we pick three runners. This requires just six different bets. We will need to be careful with our selecting, especially in the first two elements where we have no margin for error, but I feel this is the right combination to use all things considered.
One of the main advantages of using this combination is the scope it gives us for increasing the accumulated odds of the bet. To explain further, although we need to stick to short priced certainties” in the two elements of the bet where we can only make one selection, the luxury of being able to pick two and more so three horses in a field allows us to more adventurous with our selections. For the “three horse race” we can choose a wide open race and select three runners at longer prices. This really helps to multiply the returns.
Horse Selection.
As we have said, even though this plan does give us something of a margin of error, we still have to be very careful when making our selections. Methods of selecting horses are many and varied. In all my time of studying racing, I have yet to see a method of selecting winners that was 100% consistent. I know some very good methods of increasing your chances, but it is impossible for me to say to you do x, y and z and you are guaranteed winners.
What I can do is pass on to you a few guidelines that I use when looking for winners. The first pieces of advice are particularly aimed at locating the single horses for elements 1 and 2, after which I have a couple of suggestions to help you when looking for the two and three horse combinations.
1. Use a race at a meeting of reasonable quality. You do not necessarily have to use the major meeting of the day, but the prize value of the race you use should be sufficient to ensure that the horses entered are there to make a genuine effort to win, (£3,000 upwards minimum).
2. Ensure that all the runners in the race you use have a reasonable amount of form behind them. They should have had at least two races in the present season.
3. Look for favourites that are between 1.5 and 2 points clear of the next horse in the betting, e.g. if the favourite is 6/4, then the next horse in the betting should be at least 3/1, preferably around 7/2.
4. Don’t put too much faith in tipsters unless you know from your own experience which tipsters to trust. Having said this, if the horse you are considering is hardly being tipped by any of the tipsters, there is probably a good reason.
5. Try to avoid races which are any of the following; specifically for amateurs, lady jockeys or apprentices, Claimers or Sellers, maiden races. Personally, I am still cautious about using races at all-weather meetings. Form gained on turf does not seem to have too much bearing on a horse’s form on these tracks, and subsequently a little too many outsiders seem to win for my liking. However, this is just my own opinion, and all-weather races can sometimes supply the right kind of races for use as element 3 or 4 where we have the luxury of picking two or three contenders, but where we need better prices.
6. Locating the race to use for the third element of our bet can be awkward. Although it may seem an easier job to find a winner when we are picking two horses in the same race, the problem we have is that we realistically need to find horses around 5/2 or 6/1 if we want to get the really good returns. To help you find a supply of winners around these prices here is probably one of the best selection hints I’ve ever given. Look for a horse in a race that is forecast to be about the correct odds we’re looking for, its form will quite often be fair to indifferent, (plenty of thirds, fourths etc but few firsts), look at this horse’s racing history notes, you will only find these in proper racing papers, I use the Sporting Life. If the horse’s prior results were gained better classes of races than the one it is about to run in, i.e. if its last few races had prize values of £4,000 or £5,000 etc. and it is now running in a race for £2,000 then this horse’s chances might well be better than its odds suggest. Find a horse like this and cover it along with a shorter priced horse in that race, this will act as something of an insurance policy. You will be surprised at just how often a horse dropping in class comes home at a good price!
7. When looking for a race for the fourth element where we pick three horses, what I tend to do is look for a handicap with between 8 and 12 runners in the field and where the betting forecast suggests that the race is quite open. The forecast favourite should be about 4/1+. Pick the favourite plus two others from the top half of the forecast to use. In a handicap race like this it is a bit of a lottery selecting the winner, but by covering three runners in the way we are doing the odds will be in your favour.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:26:18 GMT
The Platinum Plan.
Any daily newspaper can be used, but the daily Mirror is recommended Since it has one of the finest betting forecasts available. • Do not bet when the going is described as Heavy, Soft to Heavy, Soft Or Firm. Do not bet on all-weather surfaces. Do not bet on Sundays Or Bank Holidays. • Strike out all handicap races, nursery races and selling races and races which are to be run over less than seven furlongs (7f). • Strike out any race where the prize money on offer is over £10,000. • Strike out any race with more than eight runners. • Strike out any race where the first in the betting forecast has Forecast odds of less than 6/4 or more than 3/1. • Strike out any race where the difference between the second and Third favourites in the betting forecast is less than one clear point. For example, If the 2nd Fav is forecast at 5/2 and the 3rd Fav is forecast at 3/1, this race does not qualify. If, however, the 3rd Fav was forecast at 7/2 or greater, the race would qualify. Any races you now have left after this rigorous deletion process qualify for a bet. (NOTE-If there are no such races, you may opt to bring a few back in by including 6f and 5f races which meet the other criteria outlined above. This is your choice.) The Platinum Plan calls for you to make a level stake outlay of 3 points on every race. The three points should be distributed as follows: 2 points to win on the FAVOURITE 1 point to win on the 2ND FAVOURITE.
Whilst you are free to use the named horses which are forecast first and second favourite in the betting forecast of your newspaper, I have found that simply betting 2 points on the "FAVOURITE" and 1 point on the "2ND FAVOURITE" generates better long- term profits. This is most certainly due to the obvious deviation of the actual betting market from the forecast betting market. Your total outlay for every race selected by the Platinum Plan is therefore 3 points This outlay remains level from race to race. A betting bank of no less than 30 points is recommended. This is sufficient for ten bets. For the ultimate in comfort, a betting bank of 60 points would prove sufficient for twenty bets. As you can see, The Platinum Plan is incredibly simple to operate, but the strike rate and profit it generates are second to none.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:28:27 GMT
The Specific Strategy.
The strategy is based on high value, each-way bets. We are looking to back horses which are between 6/1 and 10/1. Using the guidelines below around 80-90% of the chosen horses should at least place, which at fifth of the odds will show small profits. However experience has taught us that approximately 1 in 5 of these horses will actually win, it is these win bets, (at prices up to 10/1), that will see our profits spiral. Effectively, using this method you will be backing on a week to week basis confident in the knowledge that most of the time your money will be returned, plus a small profit for your trouble, patiently waiting for the big price winners we all hope for. The Specific Strategy does not incur any long losing runs. Here is how the plan operates.
Firstly, we confine our betting to certain types of races, these being non-handicap races with eight, or sometimes nine runners. During the jumps season, chases are preferable to hurdles, but don't exclude hurdles altogether as the plan is still profitable with these types of races. During the flat season do not ever use two-year-old races or sprints (5-6 furlongs). This may seem to leave us very little to play with, but there will still be quite a few races of interest to us each week.
The next thing we look at in the suitable races, is the betting. You can use the morning forecasts in the papers, or wait for the markets to open proper. Look for races which the bookmakers rate as a "two horse race", ie. the first two in the betting should be very shortly priced, usually one will be odds-on and the second horse around 7/4 to 2/1.
Find a race that fulfils all the criteria above and you have a bet!
The horse to back each-way will be the third one in the betting. This will usually be 6/1 or better in races with a two-horse book. This will be the horse that the form experts rate as the third best in the race. Because the odds set by the bookmakers represent each horses chances of winning (not placing), backing the third best horse each-way is the finest value bet you can get in racing. It really is a loophole in the bookmakers way of working. So much so that in races of the kind the strategy is concerned with, the on-course bookmakers are unlikely to accept each-way bets like these. They realise the danger of such bets. The off-course bookmaking chains have to have a general policy and cannot adjust their betting practises for specific races.
Now two notes of caution:
Firstly, when you are selecting the "third" horse to back in races with a two-horse book, always stick to using the third horse in the betting. Don't be tempted to try to pick a bet from the remaining runners. A hard and fast selection method that does not allow room for emotions, hunches or personal judgement will always prove most profitable in the long run.
Secondly, in eight runner races be careful that there are no withdrawals. In eight runner races a place counts as first, second or third, but if there is a withdrawal and less than eight horses start, then only first and second will count as places. This is something to avoid.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:29:42 GMT
The Lay And Go System.
The "LAY AND GO" System is specially designed for those punters who wish to place their whole day’s bets in one go, or if they are having a day out at the races it will give them a simple method of finding winners. Many punters like to follow their favourite jockey, but even a cursory glance at the jockey’s table shows that very, very few jockeys show a level stake profit on their mounts. So clearly, in order to succeed, a system backing a jockey needs to be linked with some other sound basis of selection, the most obvious being the form of the horses that the jockey will be riding.
Selection Method.
This will only work at one meeting at a time so, if you are not actually at the track, it is suggested that you concentrate on the day’s Principle meeting. Go through the entire race programme and note the jockey who is riding the most horses which were winners last time out. This is the jockey that you will be following today. In the event of more than one jockey tying for selection, you will select the jockey who is currently the highest in the jockeys championship table at the present time. You may place a bet at the Bookmakers on each of the jockeys mounts as per the following example.
Example.
2.00 L Dettori’s mount £1.00 win
2.30 L Dettori’s mount £2.00 win
3.00 L Dettori’s mount £3.00 win
4.00 L.Dettori’ s mount £4.00 win
4.30 L.Dettori’s mount £5.00 win
5.00 L Dettori’s mount £6.00 win
Stop at a winner.
The staking method that is used in the above example is a simple, but effective one whereby the stake is increased by just 1 point after a loss.
Important note.
You must put your selected jockey down for ALL the races on the programme, even if he is not down to ride in one or more races. If he does not ride then there is no loss, but if, for example, he was not down to ride in the 4.00 but managed to pick up a spare ride which duly trotted in at big odds, then I do not imagine you would be too happy. So play safe and put your jockey down for each race.
Of course, if you are at the track, or even in the Bookmakers, then you could perhaps be a little bit more adventurous with your staking system, although the one used in the example is perfectly adequate and has proved to be very successful over the years.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:30:08 GMT
How to Spot a Vulnerable Favourite.
As the popularity of the betting exchanges grows, so more and more people are looking to profit from horse racing by laying horses to lose. But what is the best strategy? On the face of it, one might think that simply betting that the outsider will lose is a quick way to make easy money. In reality, the best horse to bet against is the race favourite.
Betting that the outsider at 20/1 will lose will be fine to start with, and doubtless you will soon develop a winning run of profits. However, sooner rather than later that 33/1 shot with ‘absolutely no chance’ will come home in front, and you may well have laid him at a price of 52.00 (for example) on Betfair. BOOM! There goes all your hard-earned winnings, and more!
Generally a horse will be the favourite because it has the weight of the market’s money behind it, which forces the price down. Simple economics. There will be a point however, where the horse’s price is too low compared to it’s actual chance of winning. Beyond this ‘true’ price is where the layers will start to make a profit.
So we go ahead with this strategy, and we proceed to lay every favourite, right? Wrong.
Horse racing favourites are often priced too low. This is how bookmakers have made their profit for generations. But they are not priced too low every time – sometimes a favourite is the most likely horse to win a race for very good reason.
If we took the simplified approach of laying every favourite, after a while betting on the exchanges we would remain around the break even point, because the exchange markets are a very efficient barometer of probability. However, after paying commission on our winnings, we would watch our account slowly draining away like water down a plug-hole. Not good.
So how do we know which favourites are true favourites, and which are weak or vulnerable?
One method is to analyse the positive aspects of a horse’s form. It will not surprise you to learn that more favourites win when they have fewer question marks against them. This is not rocket science, but taking the time to separate strong contenders from weak favourites will give you the ‘edge’ to make that all-important profit.
Below is a list of form criteria you can apply to the market leader in any given race: 1. Horse and Class: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to seriously compete in the class of today's race. 2. Horse and Track: Must have proven ability on either today's track or one with similar characteristics. 3. Horse and Recent Form: Analysis of general form over the last few weeks. 4. Horse and Race Distance: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to run competitively over today's distance. 5. Horse and Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage if applicable. 6. Horse and Going: Must have shown an obvious ability to handle today's ground. 7. Trainer and Track: Trainer must have at least a 10% strike rate on today's track. 8. Trainer and Recent Record: Trainer must have had at least two placed or one winning horse in the last 14 days. 9. Jockey and Track: Jockey must have at least a 10% strike rate on today's track.
Rating a favourite as ‘weak’ or otherwise is entirely subjective, but you may determine (for example) that a horse with 3 or more question marks or negatives over their form would be considered a horse worth opposing.
As always the question of price will come into the equation. A horse with several boxes left to ‘tick’ in the list above may be a favourite in a weak race at 5/1. This may be a fair price, and you may not want to get involved in laying him to lose.
On the other hand, when a 2yo filly steps hoof onto the track for the first time, and is offered at odds-on simply because she is ridden by Frankie Dettori on behalf of the Godolphin training empire, then you may want to consider taking her on. In summary: race favourites are often a profitable source of potential Lay Bets, as they are often ‘over-bet’ and offered at prices too low compared to their actual chance of winning. Take the time to analyse key aspects of the horse’s form and judge whether they are a ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ favourite. If you decide they are vulnerable to defeat and the price is short enough, then you have identified a good lay bet.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:30:37 GMT
The National Hunt Force.
Introduction:
This system is based on a very radical criterion, it produces selections with a good strike rate and high returns.
You will need a copy of the Daily Mirror to operate this system.
This System relies on the fact that certain professional race readers are quite good at their jobs. This time we are relying on the skills of the Daily Mirror’s race reader(s) who predict if a horse is fancied (Indicated by an F next to a horse’s name) or a strongly fancied (Indicated by an SF next to a horse’s name).
With a few filters to remove any unwanted “strokes of poor luck” this system has been fine tuned to provide good quality horses at high prices that win or are placed often enough to provide a good turnover and return on investment. Paper trade for a while and see how you get on with it. We think you will be surprised!
The System
1. Select only National Hunt flat Races 2. Highlight the horses that are indicated as F or SF in the above races. 3. Are either or both of these horses unexposed? This means that there are no form figures at all next to the horses names. 4. If there are no form figures then that horse is a selection. 5. If both horses in one race qualify then back both.
Back your selection(s) to win if less than 5/1 or E/W if 5/1 or above.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:31:30 GMT
Three Star Horse Racing Systems. System 1 is a flat specialist system. This system is designed to pick out winners in 2yo non handicap races. Scan the newspaper/website of your choice and look for any 2yo non handicap races. Once you have found a suitable race follow the next steps to see if you have any qualifying horses: 1. Highlight any horses that finished 1st or 2nd last time out. 2. Check they are in the 1st two in the betting forecast. 3. Make sure their last run was not more than 30 days ago. The reasons for the 3 above rules are as follows. 1. 43% of 2yo winners came 1st or 2nd last time out. 2. 77% of 2yo winners are in the 1st two in the betting forecast. 3. We want the horse to be a peak fitness so we do not want a long lay off from the track. Following these rules will produce a list of horses for the day. If you want to back them all as a straight bet then do so. I personally back them as double/trebles/accumulators. System 2 uses the Racing Post website and its tipsters page to pick out outstanding bets on all types of horse racing. Firstly, go to the Racing Post website at www.racingpost.comClick on the Tipping section and then launch the Naps table. Note down the daily choice of any tipster that is currently in profit on the level stakes column. Once you have your list of horses look at the horses form and note any horse that has the following last 3 outings. 131 121 111 311 221 211 231 321 122 421 If any horse matches these form stats then bet on them. System 3 looks for the days outstanding outsider bet. We are concentrating here on any handicap race over the flat or jumps with 11 or more runners. For races with 11-12 runners look at the fist four in the weights and list any horse has been placed 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th in each of their last 3 outings. For races with 13-14 runners look at the first five in the weights. For races with 15 or more runners look at the first six in the weights. Once you have a shortlist of horses for the day then place a bet on the horse with longest forecast odds. If two match take the horse that ran most recently. You can bet at level stakes, however I use a progressive staking plan of 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 8. I also bet each way nearer the off on any horse 4/1 or over. Good luck and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:35:32 GMT
Yankee Gold.
The Yankee Gold is a very simple plan but it can win a lot of money from horse racing. A notebook and your normal daily paper are required. Make a note of the trainer that wins each race (when using the system for the first time it is best to start on Monday). When you find a trainer that has two winners in one day or two winners in two days (days must be consecutive i.e. Monday/Tuesday or Wednesday/Thursday etc) that is the system trainer and you back his next three runners only. Providing they comply with the following conditions. 1. Must have won a race in the current season. 2. If in a handicap there must not be more than 12 runners. 3. If in a non-handicap there must not be more than 15 runners. 4. Do not bet in Selling races. 5. Do not bet in any race with less than 4 runners and don't bet if the system selection is quoted at odds-on in your paper. In handicaps don't bet on horses carrying a penalty larger than 3lbs.
NOTE: System Banker Bets are horses that comply with the above rules and that were either 1st or 2nd last time out and are quoted favourite in your paper's betting forecast.
STAKE: Level stakes, or back the three horses using 1,2,3 points stop-at-a-winner. Back each horse to win you a fixed sum plus previous losing stake.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 1, 2014 18:36:10 GMT
Place Perfection Horse Racing System.
Firstly you need to get the racing cut down to a manageable size, therefore you should put a pen straight through all the HANDICAPS. This is for a number of reasons, but mainly because many horses are held back until they are laid out for a particular handicap, and one of these can scupper a perfectly good planned place bet, also put a line through any low grade sellers, as these horses are invariably the bottom of the barrel and inconsistency is their middle name! We need to AVOID 2 types of races at all costs, HANDICAPS and SELLERS, and we NEED to stick to these types of races:
Flat racing = MAIDENS, STAKES RACES, NOVICE EVENTS, CLAIMERS. Jumps racing = NOVICE CHASES (aka beginners chases), MAIDEN CHASES, NOVICE HURDLES, and NATIONAL HUNT FLAT (aka BUMPERS).
Now we need to weed out the big fields (OVER 14 runners and small fields UNDER 8 runners, so we need races with between 8 and 14 runners (DECLARED) . Now the declared part is the key here, as Betfair unlike regular bookies settle on 3 places even if there are less than 8 who actually run, just as long as 8 were declared. This is also a good loophole to keep in mind always, as many punters lay decent odds thinking that its 2 places when in fact its 3, and this should be on our mind at all times.
There are 2 kind of races we bet on odds wise. Just look at the qualified races and look at the odds available, Betfair is the best for this by miles for being accurate as to what's fit and expected to run well, but you can always use racing post website (www.racingpost.co.uk), please do not use a normal daily paper as the forecasters odds are usually miles out.
We are looking for a race like below > we want a strong favourite, a decent 2nd favourite, and the rest outsiders.
8 runners 1:25 Epsom
1st favourite 1.40 2nd favourite 4.00 3rd favourite 14.00 rest 50.00
Now we back the 2nd favourite to PLACE. You will get odds of around 1.40 to 1.60, and this is stealing money! I'd say the horse was value at 1.15, and always bear this in mind, as if there's only 1.3 available and you don’t get matched at higher near the off, then snap it up!
What will probably happen is that the fav will win, followed by the 2nd fav, the front 2 a good way clear. Even if the 3rd fav manages to beat us we will still get 3rd and get paid out. The rest don’t come into it. But even if 1 rank outsider manages to get a great run and get a place, then we would still need the 3rd favourite to run beyond its best to beat us as well, for us not to get paid out! In my opinion and experience, if you did 15 of these horses to place, 13 would place for sure, taking into account accidents, bumping etc. And you'll also find this very stress free as the races are that uncompetitive that the places are usually sorted as early as halfway through, as the principals go clear of the muck.
The thing people seem to forget is that horses need to get prize money in order to pay for themselves, as they are indeed very expensive animals to keep. Therefore every horse will be aimed at its correct level to give it the best chance of winning, and the majority of horses are simply not very good, therefore they are long term aimed at handicaps. Now you need 3 runs in maidens, or novice events to get a handicap mark, most horses main aim. The handicap mark is given after 3 runs to give the horses form chance to level out, and to give the handicapper a level of the horses ability. So its obvious that when running in maidens from big stables, against potential good horses of the future, they don’t want to be finishing too close as they could be ruined by the handicapper forever. Imagine running a 60 rated horse in a maiden and it gets beat by 2l by a eased down future group 1 winner rated around 130? The handicapper doesn’t take easing down or fitness into account, just facts and figures. The runner up will be rated over 100 when it's in fact only got the ability of a 60 rated horse, meaning it's 40lb wrong and will never win a race! So basically my point is that these races are very uncompetitive, more so than many would have you believe, and though they claim to be trying, ¾ of them are not even fit! So when the market suggests that it’s a 2 horse race or a 3 horse race, head for the place odds and make a killing!
Our second type of race is the more competitive one. Competitive for the win purposes though, not for place betting, and it still amazes me how people lay bigger place odds just because the win part of the race is competitive!
Example below> we want 3 horses, quite closely bunched in the betting, and again, the rest nowhere.
1:25 Epsom 9 runners
1st favourite 3.00 2nd favourite 3.50 3rd favourite 4.50 4th favourite 25.00 rest 40.00
Now what we have here is a race where anyone of 3 can WIN the race outright, but only 3 can plausibly PLACE, barring accidents. Again we're looking in the region of 1.60 in the place odds, for something that’s true chance is more like 1.15. For you to lose you need both the other fancied horses to perform to top form, you need an outsider to run better than it ever has done, and you need your horse to run well below form. You NEED all 3 of those things to happen for you not to collect! Very unlikely, and rarely happens.
In the above race examples, I've noticed that even though it looks like a clear 3 horse race in both examples, the favourites always trade at ridiculously short odds (a lot shorter than the other 2 in the betting ) in the place markets . And I've found that the way to make a real killing is not to keep with the 2nd favourites, but occasionally, when it feels right go with the 3rd favourites, as they have just as much right to get in the money, and usually just as much chance to get in the money, yet trade at double the odds, sometimes even higher.
Yesterday for example:
2:30 Ludlow 5/4 Phar Out Favourite 11/8 Marcel 7/2 Norma Hill 40/1 bar 3
Now in my opinion all 3 should place barring accidents, as they are quite some way superior to the rest, yet the place odds vary wildly with Marcel at 1.15, Phar Out Favourite at 1.18, yet Norma Hill a huge 1.70! In this case the 3rd fav MUST be the bet, as the odds are clearly wrong, especially as Marcel is a dodgy jumper at best and pipes stable is well out of form. And Phar Out Favourite fell last time out, yet Norma Hill is just as good form wise, and much more consistent and a good bold jumper, this isn’t after timing, just a great example, and I tipped Norma Hill up to my subscribers, and it duly bolted up, from Marcel in 2nd, with Phar Out Favouirte falling when beaten at the 3rd last.
To make this system effective you need to bet as late as possible to the off, as there's some crazy bets laid by desperate punters trying to get out of trouble. And just because a horse drifts slightly in the win market why does its place odds drift? It doesn't make sense! Trust me it works!
DON'T let a drift in odds put you off, and always remember that you are betting for a PLACE not a win! If there's money for the favourite in the win market, or even a big outsider will be backed in from say 33/1 into 14/1, the place odds on our horse will go out, DON’T be put off by this! Stick to the system.
DON'T get greedy, and just keep chipping away for small profits.
DON'T do more than 3 bets maximum a day.
DON'T bet in competitive races. There's no point, just wait for the right races to come to you.
DON’T bet in handicaps EVER.
DON'T bet when there's no bet to be had.
KEEP to level stakes so that you don’t panic after a loser and blow all previous profits.
STICK to these simple rules and guidelines and you WILL come out ahead on a weekly basis.
These rules can be bent slightly in certain races but you will gain that knowledge through experience, I cant teach you that. I assure you that the more you do this the more comfortable you will become and will be able to pick your horses in 5 mins each day.
Good luck and happy punting.
I'd advise using the Betfair win markets current odds as your marker for odds etc as its much better than the racing post website for on the mark forecasts. And to bet on the day of the race once the markets have formed properly. If you bet before you go to work, or even the night before then the racing post can be effective, it would just cut down the number of bets, as you cant take into account non runners, big drifters etc. But that way WILL work too.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 3, 2014 15:13:37 GMT
VDW Foreword
The Van Der Wheil correspondence has been pored over by thousands since it began in 1978, and still is if you care to check round other message boards. If this is the case why bother doing it again? The answer is, from my point of view, that most people misinterpret or misunderstand much of what was written. I kept the entire original correspondence published in the Sporting Chron & Raceform from 1978 to 1997. (Not only that, the editor of Sports Forum at the time, Tony Peach, is a friend of mine and I have discussed VDW with him). The fact is that most of the items published were not simply letters from VDW to Sports Forum, but were articles commissioned on behalf of the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book by Tony at £50 a throw. Much of the time even the topics to be published were suggested by Tony. So, only those letters for about the first 18 months after Feb 2, 1978 are relevant to this explanation. (I should declare here that I do not follow the VDW methodology exclusively, deriving pleasure from being an armchair form analyst in my own right).
VDW Setting the Scene
The story really begins with a letter to the now defunct Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book (SCHB) from Win, Brighton published Jan 12, 1978: -
Hotform Must Look Between Lines
Long before I knew that the SCHB existed I was given a hint on how to make racing pay by an old professional punter. I was intrigued and set off with the "hint" along the road that "Hotform" is gingerly treading to find winners. Along the way I owe much to reading between the lines in your magazine. I should imagine that one or two old hands are having a quiet chuckle at his obvious and understandable confusion. But his enthusiasm is there, and that means a lot, Hotform, it is those complications you speak of that will help you find winners. In my original letter I gave more hints than I ever got. Let me recap, I was explaining why the end of the Flat season was difficult by talking about the complexity of form-cycles. I stand by that. Form cycles are what racing is all about, that, and class. Marry the two and you will know what trainers are up to. The NH season is easier because the horses involved are kept in training by experienced men who know their potential. The unknown factors are few compared to the complications that make up the bulk of the Flat. Their form-cycles are more predictable. Of course, the arguments against are clear: - 1. The favourite situation is little different to the Flat, so no advantage there. 2. Weather predictions cause problems. 3. What about fallers? I can see no sense in the untoward accent on favourites, for what on earth are they but horses generally favoured for a variety of vague and fluctuating reasons, only a third of which win anyway? As for varying conditions these experienced nags 'weather the storm' better than the sensitive Flat animal, and they rarely fall when they are in form. They usually fall, if fall they do, when not quite at their peak. But they do have the advantage of experience. A racecourse is part of their business; the trainers know what they are about. It has always struck me that learning the craft of punting is more than the search for a system, which is different than being systematic. Be that by all means. Keep a notebook in which to jot down anything that may be useful. If you are going into this thing go into it seriously. Might I suggest, Hotform, that you find the answers to the following: 1. How can you tell the class horse in the race? 2. When is it past its peak? 3. How many horses are worth considering in the race? 4. Can you tell which horse is 'poised'? Answer these questions and you are a long way ahead of the field.
The above letter prompted the first unsolicited letter to Sports Forum by Che Van Der Wheil
VDW 1 How About A Swop Shop
Most weeks Sports Forum is a mixture of rubbish, slanging and frustration to the point of exasperation, a sure road to the knacker's yard. Only once in a while do we get real gems among the contributions. On Jan 12, Win, Brighton makes a useful contribution but ends by asking four questions, all of which I can answer. But it would have been better if HE had done so for the benefit of the uninitiated. If he had, and others will come clean, I myself am prepared to offer proven winning ideas. Between us we can really set this page alight. After all, none of us knows the lot, but with a combination of knowledge we can really go places. VDW 2 Odd Man Out Hands In Staking Plan
2nd VDW letter to Sports Forum published March 23, 1978. Methodmaker, Feb 23, 1978, again returns to the subject of staking plans. It appears he is plagued by readers seeking advice on how to ENHANCE PROFITS using varying stakes. Perhaps I am the odd man out, but I view the question of staking not from the view of enhancing profits but to SHOW a profit. Readers may be interested in the method I have used for over 40 years, which basically aims to ensure 1 point profit from each bet.
Stake/Result/Won/Lost/Debit/Credit 1........Lost................1...... 2 2........Lost................2...... 5 3........Lost................3...... 9 4........2-1W.....8.......0….. 2… 2 3........Lost................3...... 6 4........Lost................4......11 5........3-1 W…15.....0……0…8 0......................23…13.............10
Stakes are increased by 1 point each bet until any debit is reduced to zero. However, note that stakes should not exceed the debit by more than 1 point. Any further losses are treated the same and added to the previous deficit. A winning bet has one point deducted (profit required). The resultant figure is deducted from the debit column. When debit reaches zero subtract Loss from Win and enter profit in Credit column. In this illustration, profit is 10 points. Level stakes would have resulted in no profit. The sequence used is hypothetical and designed to illustrate the procedure, but I have used a poor win average and modest prices to show, I hope, the merit of the plan. Jacknote: I have edited the above as time moves on and an element for tax was allowed in the example staking, which I have removed. At the time I compared around 10 other staking plans and this one came out the best by far.
VDW 3 Narrow the Field
Letter published in Sports Forum April 6 1978.
In response to G Hall (16/2/78) perhaps the following will provide food for thought. It is not a system, but one of many ways to narrow the field and at the same time put the odds in your favour. I suggest that the two factors can be coupled together to leave three horses for consideration. First, consistent horses win a high percentage of races. Second, the first 5 in the betting forecast in non-handicaps and the first 6 in handicaps produce a high percentage of winners. If we add the last 3 finishing places of the respective horses in the betting forecast together, we have a numerical picture. This can be very illuminating and show, subject to other considerations, the good betting propositions. A high percentage of winners come from the 3 lowest figures. Leaving out sellers and novice handicaps it often traps the winner in all races on the card. As I write the only race in my paper which was 'on' - the Erin Foods Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown broke down as under - This is used to indicate the 3 most probable. Decent Fellow 7 Beacon Light 3* Monksfield 16 Prominent King 5* Mr Kildare 3* (Mr Kildare had only 2 finishing places so the last place was added on). Using 2 methods of rating all 5 horses, I found that the 3 starred horses came out best. Both methods showed beacon light well out of it and his last race had been a hard one against Sea Pigeon so I was left with prominent King and Mr Kildare. Prominent King had the edge by one method and was level using the other. Checking the form, Prominent King was coming out of handicap company where he shouldered a massive 12-7 last time out going under by 5 lengths to Drumgora also in this race on 17lbs worse terms. Mr Kildare, is an odds-on winner last time out not against much opposition, was set to carry 5lbs more. Prominent King coming out of handicap company and with 15lbs less to carry and on the same course looked a good proposition. It duly obliged at 6/1, Mr Kildare followed him home at 5/1. With a sensible staking plan the method works well for me. But remember, you do not have to bet, but when you do load the odds in your favour. In conclusion, may I say to G Hall that we are all novices, it is just that some have been so for far longer Jacknote: In essence VDW says you carry out the procedure to narrow the field down to 3 horses and then assess their form. He says he uses 2 methods of 'rating' meaning methods of assessment and NOT handicap figure ratings. Also note the emphasis that he puts on form in the last race of each probable.
VDW 4 Numbers Game to Form a Picture
From a letter published in Sports Forum June 6, 1978
Methodmaker comments on my contribution with the suggestion that I appear to accept previous form figures without question and in this context may be skating on very thin ice. He omitted to mention the fact that I stated, with regard to the numerical picture: “This can be very illuminating and show, SUBJECT TO OTHER CONSIDERATIONS, the good betting propositions." Presumably if someone of Methodmakers's calibre has misrepresented my suggestion there will be many readers who have failed to grasp the intent. I stated that consistent horses win a high percentage of races and present a few form-figures from my own extensive surveys. Disregarding ALL factors other than the last 3 finishing places, my figures show percentage wins next time: 111 33%, 121 32%, 221 31%, 321 29%, 132 26%, 313 24%, 213 25%, 214 24%, 204 8%, 302 8%, 404 5%, 000 2%. Using Methodmaker's figures, which I accept, the first 5 produce 83% winners. My own combined figures from the 3 most consistent produce: 3-3-3 99%, 3-3-4 98%, 3-4-5 96%, 4-5-6 90%, 5-6-12 73%, 16-18-30 17%. I also stated in my contribution that all relevant horses were rated by 2 different methods. April 21 at Sandown, the day following Methodmaker's comments, there was one outstanding bet by my calculations. Celtic Pleasure won 7/2. It is interesting that on the same card Little Nugget scored and I leave it to readers to ponder without further comment other than to say it did not feature in the first 6 in my paper, in fact it was not mentioned. The following Saturday, April 22, produced 2 more good things by my calculations: Battlement won at 9/2 at Thirsk and Strombolus won 7/1 in the Whitbread Gold Cup at Sandown. Again it is interesting that Strombolus did not feature in the first 6 in my daily, or in a well known Sporting daily. To the credit of the Sporting Chronicle it did feature. A further point I feel worthy of mention is that both first and second in this race had a total of 3 from last 3 finishing places. The previous Saturday, April 15, produced 3 outstanding bets, again by my calculations. Rifle Brigade won 5/2 at Beverley, Orchestra won 6/1, Derrylin won 4/1 at Newbury. In the latter’s race note Weth Nan second, and in Orchestra's race Welsh Dancer second. Readers may also like to ponder over the Scottish National on the same day. Since the opening of the Flat I have placed 32 bets of which 29 won. No wonder I smile when a self-appointed 'old-un' of 50 years experience topples himself from the pedestal by stating he finds it even more difficult to show a profit now tax has been increased to 9%. I accept Methodmaker's comments and concede the ice breaks sometimes but assure him that on the whole it is much thicker than it may appear. Jacknote: Note that form figures are never taken at face value but are always assessed - subject to other considerations. Also once again that horses are rated (assessed) by 2 different methods. In my opinion the arithmetic is incorrect as 3 horses each with a 33% chance does not give an overall 99% chance - it's just plain wrong? Would 4 such runners in a race mean 132% winning chance? What should be noted from the figures is the high instance of WINNING form. Note also that he will go outside the parameter set of 5/6 in the betting forecast if a runner has good consistent form. He states he had 32 bets to June from the start of the Flat and that means an average of only about 3 each week. There are plenty of names and dates for anyone with the relevant form books to check. I believe VDW used the Daily Mail a lot of the time but the best betting forecast to use is the Racing Post nowadays as they show odds for every runner in a race.
VDW 5 Constant Stream of Winners
This is a letter published in Sports Forum Jan 11, 1979 from a Mr G Hall: -
Towards the end of the last NH season reader C Van Der Wheil gave us his system. I burnt considerable midnight oil checking through the past results and concluded that there was something to get my teeth into. My first bet was the Lincoln winner, but then things started to go wrong. Fortunately, VDW elaborated following comments by Methodmaker and after burning more midnight oil, I spotted the 'KEY', which was plainly there to see. I followed the system throughout the rest of the season and finished the period with a tidy bank, even after taking out the cost of a family holiday to Malta. A system that can give the spring and autumn double, with a constant stream of winners in-between, can't be any fluke and I look forward to the next Flat season. My best day produces a nice yankee, with Buckskin 2/1, Swiss maid 5/1, My Therape 5/1 and the Cambridgeshire winner Baronet 12/1. In tending my thanks and appreciation to VDW, can I persuade him to further elaborate upon his system for use over the sticks? The 'KEY' does not seem to produce as many bets. Also, I would appreciate enlightenment regarding procedures when finishing places include F fell, R refused, P pulled up, U unseated rider etc. Jacknote: This was the letter that began the furore when the SCHB decided to commission VDW to write articles as letters, although this was not disclosed at the time to the readers. Note also the mention of the 'KEY' "which was plainly there to see" that has caused problems over the years. G Hall 'solved' it by checking the form of horses named to date by VDW in the context of his previous letters.
VDW 6 Has Spotted Method’s Key
A letter published in Sports Forum August 3, 1979 from VDW.
In reply to G Hall (11/1/79) can I first say that it was a method not a system, a point as I recall that was stressed. However, I congratulate him on 'spotting the key' as he describes it. The 4 bets mentioned were in fact good things on the day in question. In my view temperament is an important factor in deciding the winning and losing punters and in this respect I feel some considerable concern regarding our friend's apparent impatience at fewer bets during the NH season and his liking for fancy bets. The method I gave produces 85% to 90% winners Flat and jumps, year in year out. I know that during the NH season there can be long waits just as we have had until January 20. The only good thing Love From Verona won 12/1. There are of course, days during the Flat when nothing can be found and there is no point in trying to find what is not there. Our friend has enjoyed a profitable season and I ask that he think hard about the factor of temperament and refrain from throwing away the advantage so far gained in the sure knowledge that there is plenty more to come from the same source. Regarding form finishing places F, P, U etc., it is a matter of commonsense really. A horse can be pulled up for a number of reasons and an effort should be made to determine the cause. If it be found that when being pulled up 'going conditions' were the cause, there is no problem, but if it was a question of fitness then it is a different kettle of fish. The same goes for fallers, a slip on landing is not the same as a crashing fall after going through the top of the fence. Many times I've seen horses have a slight mishap without actually falling resulting in the jockey parting company, but the form has shown F (fell) when next running. I suggest calculating backwards but taking note as above.
As an example, Dec 28 Newbury, 2.00, Weyhill Handicap Chase. The 3 principles are marked. 811-13F Mafia King 5* 136L14- Beige Prince 15* LP1-Fpp Endurance Trust - 1/22L1L Queens College 21 P4P12-F Uther Pendragon 7* Won 11/2 514002- Cadwaldr 22
If our friend insists on more bets he may care to note the 2 shortest price forecast favourites at the 2 main meetings and check their merit using the same criteria as in the other method. Again he will achieve a high win ratio, but alas the prices will be short although profitable if use is made of the staking plan I also gave. Again Jan 20, of the 2 horses only one qualifies, Gaffer won 3/1. Jacknote: VDW stresses again that this is a method not a system. He agrees that there is a factor, which might be called ' the key' that is there but not highlighted in the letters to date. He makes the amazing claim of 80-90% winners, year in year out. He states that what has been given constitutes one method of assessment, recalling that initially he stated 2 methods of rating (assessment) are used. Finally, there is a method for extra bets, but once again you need to know the 'key'. In my opinion this is probably the last unsolicited letter to Sports Forum as hereafter they are articles commissioned by the SCHB, where even the subjects for discussion were suggested.
VDW 7 Dutchman States: No Magic Formula
The next letter/article in the sequence has been passed over as it deals with list of horses to follow and not the basic VDW methodology. The next letter/article after the one above was published in Sports Forum May 24, 1979.
Last year in response to a challenge, I submitted what to my mind is a very elementary method of finding winners with the remark that it may provide food for thought. Apparently id did and although I feel enough was outlined for readers to grasp the idea it is obvious that many have failed to do so. Possibly because one contributor introduced what he called the 'Key' readers have sought what is not there in the form of some magic formula. I suggest first looking to the prize money and type of race. Good consistent are not to be found in a £500 seller but they are in a £5.000 handicap. Saturday April 14 provided only 5 races from all the cards worth considering. Kempton 2.00, 2.30, 3.00, Newcastle 2.30 and Towcester 2.15. If they care to read again my first letter and apply the principles they will find five winners, Proven, Man of Vision, Sofronoff, Baptism and Mitchelstown. It does not follow that a good thing always follows from the preliminary mechanical procedure: this can only be determined from a close study of form and associated aspects. However the mechanical part does isolate a narrow area that consistently produces winners. Something for nothing is a myth, a great deal of hard work has to go in also. If you care to put the method into a logical formula it is quite simple: Constant Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners. Therefore, first look for good class stakes and handicaps. At present values, and these are constantly changing, a novice chase or hurdle with prize money £3.000 upwards will attract horses worth looking at, but elsewhere values are different. On the Flat caution is needed in the early part of the season in races confined to 3-y-o when some of the field did not run as 2-y-o. Better to confine interest to races for all-aged horses until a full understanding has been gained. Ratings are also a part of a mechanical procedure and should be regarded as a guide and not the be all and end all. A top-rated horse on a time basis is not much good if form does not support it. Also ask the question, which is the better performance? A winner at Redcar with a figure of 36 or a 4th at Epsom beaten 3 lengths in similar conditions with a figure of 79. If readers care to check, recent good things have included Pragmatic, Inside Quarter, Lyric Dance only just beaten last year by One In A Million and also a good thing but not at the price. Eal-Mana-Mou, Drumlerry, Quickapenny, Hawalin Sound, Vaigly Great and not forgetting Lyphards's Wish. It has been expressed in these pages that many punters look for too many bets and I will repeat something I myself quoted, temperament plays a big part in sorting out the winners and losers. You don't HAVE to bet but using this elementary method your field of vision will be restricted to a narrow area full of potential and if you fail to achieve a minimum of 80% success evaluate your reading of form. There are many other ways of doing the same thing and also they can be used to confirm findings from this method. If readers are interested I will be glad to submit to these pages for discussion. In conclusion, may I refer to a point in P Chester's letter? I quote: "If no clear chance emerges from methodical study, one of two things should become plain, the competition is to keen to justify a bet or the winner must be looked for among the outsiders." May I suggest his first alternative is the one to adopt (temperament). Jacknote: One paragraph has been edited out as not being relevant nowadays. In the fomula I believe Constant Form should read Consistent Form. Ratings (this time meaning handicap rating figures) are mentioned but only to be regarded as a guide.
VDW 8 (Part 1) Speed Is No Use Without Form
Jacknote: I have split this letter/article into 2 parts as it deals with 2 subjects, which seems a mistake, as the second part is essential to the basic methodology.
This letter/article was published in Sports Forum August 23, 1979.
In reply to Mr T A Swann, June 7, I must first suggest he is starting from the wrong point. He states that he was confident of discovering my methods of rating which, I understand, he feels is the answer to his problem. This is not so, and I have previously suggested that although ratings have a value they are not the 'be all and end all' but should be treated as a guide. I'm sure that if he understood a previous letter, which perhaps he has not seen before writing, the situation would have become clearer. Although the elementary mechanical procedure can be used to effect on any race, I suggest that by concentrating on better class races he will soon gain a full understanding. Relatively consistent horses can be found in any race, but GOOD consistent horses are usually found only in better events. The value of any ratings must be determined from the base used to compile them and in this respect I suggest form must play a major role. Speed figures alone have little value if not supported by form. It is true form is a complex thing, and subject to interpretation but there are many aspects which give clear indications. Mr Swann may care to give thought not to a race as a whole but to the respective horse’s performance over the last 2 furlongs in each of their 3 previous outings. What a horse does, or does not do, at this stage will provide the answers. As one example, a horse that noticeably improves to make a race of it at this stage without winning can be looked upon as a potential candidate in the near future and note should be made of how the trainer places it. Mr Swann states he had found good reasons to back the horses mentioned and I suggest he examines this aspect in depth. With the obvious effort he has put in, this will give him the answers he seeks. The placing of an investment must be backed by solid reasons and not by a compulsion to gamble. The Goodwood meeting produced a string of good things rounding off with Connaught Bridge and Philodantes on Saturday, Aug 4. The only other race of the day to consider provided Soaf at Newmarket. Jacknote: Again it is stressed that ratings (meaning handicap rating figures) should ONLY be treated as a guide. GOOD consistent form is emphasized again. Note also the advice to check the race reader's comments for the last 3 races of any horse under consideration seeking those that 'noticeably improve to make a race of it' and 'how the trainer places it'.
VDW 8 (part 2) Another Way to Reduce the Field
This is the 2nd part of the letter/article published in Sports Forum August 23, 1979.
Another of the many ways to reduce the field, which can be used in conjunction with the previous method I gave, is as follows. The combination of the 2 usually indicates the probables. Again I suggest the better class races but illustrate using a scrubber to show potential. A star has been used to indicate selections at each stage. The previous method I gave isolates Secret Express, Easter Girl, The Old Fellow giving 4 out of the 16 with probability. Most people will be aware of the statistics regarding horses placed 1, 2, 3, 4 last time out and here a variation is used for the first stage of the mechanical procedure. Stage 1. From the last 2 finishing places of each horse mark all those with form figures 1 to 4 (note as in the race illustrated none had a 2nd place so mark those with a 5th place). Stage 2. Select in days, the 5 most recent runs. In this case 3, 7, 9, 10, 11 days. Stage 3. Select from the above the 3 most consistent by adding together the last 3 finishing places of the respective horses. Reading through the form there can be little doubt that The Old Fellow represents a reasonable wager if you care to bet in scrubber races.
Newmarket, Aug 4, Cobnut Selling Handicap 3yo, 16 runners.
Stage1..................................2......3...........….......Ratings 766....Tucson.................... 28 2R14*..Secret Express........3*....7*.................32.....84 58-0.....What A Treasure..110 305*....Easter Girl................9*..18..................29....84 0-74*...Laki lady.................68 275*....Mohock....................7*..14*2nd 15/2.35....85 40-9.....Carol Seymour........61 0-35*..Hosts Delight..........11*..18.................28....89 0L0.......Sky Grove..............61 044*.....Game Sheila............7*...18.................29....89 093*....Baby Flo..................10*..32................18....75 08L......Blue Paper...............64 781*...The Old Fellow.........10*..16*W12/1.....40...91 084*...Royal Inheritance......25....22................(40).(99) 064*...Desert Prince.............18...20..3rd.16/1...31...89 660.....The Mo......................19
It is interesting to speculate by what criterion weight of money could force Royal Inheritance to a 5/2 favourite from a forecast of 10/1. Ratings alone? If readers care to subject the next race on the card (won by Soaf) to the same 2 methods the point arises again. By what criterion could Another Signcentre be not only forecast favourite but actual 2/1 favourite? The Combination of both methods isolates Soaf, Dalkoku, Rubber Duck and Art Bidder. As will be noticed the first 3 places were filled from these 4. Jacknote: This is an important letter. It establishes that when he was talking about 2 rating methods in the first letters he actually meant 2 assessment methods and not handicap rating figures. The handicap ratings above are only used to indicate the false favourite Royal Inheritance and are NOT part of the assessment. So now we have the 2 assessment methods to use together to narrow the field. Namely, the 3 most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the betting forecast and the one detailed above. Note in this case the first method gave Secret Express, Easter Girl, The Old Fellow and the second method above added Mohock to them, giving 4 probables. Somehow in future handicap rating figures became part of the assessment but that is not the case as described in the letters to date. The same applies to class by prize money that again was added in the future.
VDW 9 Flying Dutchman Believes In Consistency
Jacknote: I may have been wrong in my earlier assumption that some of the items published were articles and not unsolicited letters before this one appeared. However, this one is definitely an article commissioned for £50 by Tony Peach on behalf of the SCHB. Note that it is almost 7 months since the last letter was published although there was a great deal of interest and the SCHB wanted to keep it going to increase circulation. Again I am going to edit it severely as half of it is a repeat of what has gone before and so the 'consistency' headline does not really apply. Although the content may be worthwhile the subject may have been suggested by Tony Peach. This is relevant as I believe readers had been confused by VDW's use of methods of rating, where he meant assessment and not rating figures. The thing is neither VDW nor Tony Peach realized the fact so this article is the result. This article was published in Sports Forum on March 13, 1980.
A great deal of emphasis appears to be placed on my methods of rating, but there is no mystery about them. I have said, because so much importance seems to be placed on them, that ratings are not the 'be all and end all' but should be used as a guide. If you compare 2 private handicaps for instance, they can differ to an alarming degree. Without going into the reasons for this, I do not wish to imply that ratings have no value, but I do subscribe to the view that they must be coupled aspects to have a worthwhile meaning. Those who provide ratings do a valuable service, but I believe none of them would disagree that they are compilers. This is in no way derogatory, because their figures are the result of compiling various data and I believe they themselves know how to use them to advantage. Test any set of ratings yourself and you will find a certain percentage top-rated winners and indeed, it is wise not to stray too far from the top 5 or 6 when selecting wagers. Because there is variation between ratings I prefer to use 2 sets which are compiled on different lines. This enables me to judge the reliability of the figures in conjunction with other factors. My letter of August 23 deliberately illustrates this point. It does not have to be top-rated to be a sound wager, the combination of all factors and study of form does this. Study of form and ratings can show a consistent horse to be out of its depth, as for instance Billbroker in the St Leger and equally that Son of Love was a good thing in the same race. Readers who rely on ratings may deduce that by taking the top 5 or 6 rated and coupling them with the 5 or 6 most consistent horses in the field they will trap a lot of winners. Try it and you will find it is interesting. In non-handicaps may I suggest sticking to the top 4 rated. Jacknote: From this date the top 3 ratings from 2 sets of rating figures were included in the assessments to confirm the 2 'elementary mechanical procedures'. One of the ratings was usually Formcast of the Daily Mail, which I understand VDW had a lot of respect for.
VDW 10 A Method Not Rules Needed
This is another article that I have edited severely to remove the dross, as I see it, in which case the headline does not have much to do with the content, again. This article from VDW was published in Sports Forum May 29 1980.
K Simpson may care to revise the way in which he calculates the 3 most consistent horses. Finishing places 1 to 9 are counted as they stand but for reasons which should be obvious those beyond this range or those finishing last should be calculated as 10 i.e.3rd, 15th, 2nd =17. Perhaps it would be a help if some discussion took place on the subject of rating and ratings, two different matters. May I again suggest that ratings are a guide and should be used in conjunction with other factors. There are numerous methods of rating and it is simple to devise one yourself, but first a sound basis is required. A significant factor with regard to racing that is apparently not known or completely ignored by the vast majority of punters is that of class. True, there is some controversy as to what determines class, but it remains a positive that the class horse given other factors usually wins. I said there is some controversy as to the definition of class, a phrase that is bandied about in racing circles. A class athlete, footballer etc., by what criterion is this judged if not by what they have achieved? Or put another way, their ability. A simple way to rate the field on ability is to relate the prize money won to the number of races won. This can be accomplished by viewing the prize money won in hundreds of pounds divided by the number of races won. For obvious reasons this is not foolproof, but at least it enables a better judgement to be made and usually it is unwise to stray from the top few. For illustration consider the following: - Wincanton 2.30, Jan 10, John Bull Chase
Horse...........…...Pze won..Races won....Ability rating Cassamayor.........£1,907....2......................9 Chumson.............£6,110....5(1 w.o)..…....12 Diamond Edge....£32,884....6....................55(W8/11) Gandy VI.............£5,693….4....................14 Narribini..............£18,837...8.....................23
On the same card the only other horses that met all the requirements were Crown Matrimonial won 5/2 and Parkhouse won 3/1. Modest prices on this day but consider Jan 7, Leicester 1.15, Ascencia won 7/1. All of these in my view were racing certainties and there are many more at better odds. With minor modifications the method of rating can be applied to Flat racing, but I must again stress ratings are a guide and should be used in conjunction with other factors. This method does not evaluate the ability of any horse that has not won, but there are ways of doing so which should be used in conjunction. Finally, I must further stress that although I have expressed a formula, for those who seek something in the order of rules, this is not a system, but a methodical approach which has to be applied with that something often referred to as 'know how', 'expertise' etc. Those who have understood my previous letters and used the methods will once again have found the winner in the difficult to assess first big handicap, the Lincoln, Kings Ride 10/1. No genius in winner finding just a positive and consistent methodical approach. Jacknote: If you check my 2nd paragraph it's evident that VDW realized that some readers were confused by him using the terms rating and ratings instead of assessment and ratings. However, he did not really give an explanation stating 'there are numerous methods of rating (assessment)'. This is the first letter where assessment rating figures by prize money won was discussed but after this it was incorporated into the methodology along with 2 sets of handicap rating figures. Note that he points out the drawbacks of using prize money won divided by races won that it does not allow for assessing placed horse and that it is used for NH. Also that it requires 'minor modifications' for application to Flat racing.
VDW 11 Flying Dutchman believes in consistency
Part of an article by VDW published in Sports Forum, March 13, 1980: -
'A great deal of emphasis appears to be placed on my methods of rating, but there is no mystery about them. I have said, because so much importance seems to be placed on them, that ratings are not the be all and end all" but should be used as a guide. If you compare 2 private handicaps for instance, they can differ to an alarming degree. Without going into the reasons for this, I do not wish to imply that ratings have no value, but I do subscribe to the view that they must be coupled with other aspects to have a worthwhile meaning. Those who provide ratings do a valuable service, but I believe none of them would disagree that they are compilers. This is in no way derogatory, because their figures are the result of compiling various data and I believe they themselves know how to use them to advantage. Test any set of ratings yourself and you will find that a certain percentage top-rated winners, and indeed it is wise not to stray from the top 5 or 6 when selecting wagers. Because there is this variation between ratings I prefer to use 2 sets which are compiled on different lines. This enables me to judge the reliability of the figures in conjunction with the other factors. My letter of August 23 deliberately illustrates this point. It does not have to be top-rated to be a sound wager, the combination of all factors and study of form does this. Study of the form and ratings can show a consistent horse to be out of its depth, as for instance Billbroker in the St Leger and equally that Son of Love was a good thing in the same race. Readers who rely on ratings may deduce that by taking the top 5 or 6 rated and coupling them with the 5 or 6 most consistent horses in the field they will trap a lot of winners. Try it and will find it interesting. In non-handicaps may I suggest sticking to the top 4 rated.
Jacknote: This word 'ratings' still causes confusion but in the above instance he is discussing commercial handicap ratings, which is obvious from the context of the article. It has nothing to do with his ability or consistency ratings. There is also a further method to narrow the field that is worth checking.
VDW 12 Let’s Have a Lottery
Another item where the headline does not match the content owing to my editing.
A VDW letter published in Sports Forum, April19, 1981
'Consider the 2 races on the card having he highest prize money. On the course study the boards but, in the betting shop you will need to wait for a show. If the favourite is at reasonable odds and the field not too large select the first 5 in the betting. From these sort out the 3 that have been off course for the shortest time. You can use the 3 highest race numbers from returns if you like but watch for any that ran a few days previous and are not listed. Call the 3 horses A, B, C and split them into 2 bets (A being the first quote). AB & BC. Stake 2 points A and 1 point B for the first bet and 1 point each BC for the second bet. Each of the 2 bets are kept separate and applied to a simple staking method. If A or C wins that particular series wins. If B wins both succeed.
I have outlined just the bare bones of the method leaving readers to use a little initiative. Those who studied my previous contributions will appreciate that this is just another way to reduce the field and it will no doubt help them to arrive at just 1 selection for the race. The process is very simple.
Jacknote: Opposite prices and shows things have obviously changed in the intervening years.
VDW 13 Van Der Wheil spells it all out
Just tracts taken from this offering by VDW as much of the content is a repeat of previous items.
This is a Sports Forum Extra published, March 28, 1981.
'To a large extent the art of successful punting is dependent upon the ability to appraise odds and never go against them. This does not mean never take an odds-on price which is something completely different. If the true calculated odds are 3/1 on and you can strike a wager at 6/4 on it is a value bet.
A single factor; time, form, class, etc., will not qualify as a platform from which to achieve consistent results. Many rely heavily upon ratings, but there can be a high degree of variation between compilers.
You might assume, and probably expect the official ratings and Phil Bull's much respected Timeform to show a high degree of uniformity, but this is not the case.
Take just one example, the 2 derby winners - and you can't get better class than that - Henbit and Blakeney. The official figures show the latter to be 8lbs superior, but Timeform go completely opposite making Henbit 7lbs better. Over a stone difference which makes nonsense of calculations. Conclusion, regard ratings only as a guide in association with other factors.
Form Can Mislead
Form, even though consistent, can mislead if taken alone when the horse is running against others with greater ability. Class, which in my view is a major factor, can throw you off course if the horse is out of form, so to establish a reliable measure a combination of elements must be used to achieve consistent results.
To find elements which can be combined and used methodically requires considerable thought and each must be logical. There are numerous ways to approach the problem of winner finding methodically and the one which I will demonstrate has proved highly successful and consistent for a number of years. Each element was selected after a great deal of research and when used as intended will place the odds strongly in the backers favour.
Just a synopsis of the elements selected as it has all appeared earlier.
Consistent form The first 5/6 in a reliable betting forecast Class by prize money won Two sets of ratings to confirm evaluation
This whole concept may seem complex and beyond the capabilities of many, but in fact it is extremely simple and becomes quick and easy to perform providing it is done in methodically. taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is: -
1. Select the most valuable race on the card. 2. Consider the next most valuable race. 3. Select most valuable race from other cards. 4. Rate entire fields for ability. 5. Select most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the forecast. 6. Apply second rating (evaluation) method to entire fields.'
Jacknote: I would have liked a serial 7. added to the above. 7. Add two handicap ratings of your choice to compare and confirm the assessment.
VDW 14 Market Harborough Maestro Clears Up One or Two Points
This is a severely edited tract from an article by VDW published in Sports Forum 18 April, 1981. It begins by discussing betting and the method of pro-backers. Goes on to repeat the way to determine class by prize money from number of wins, using the Little Owl race Illustration as an example. Then it proceeds to the tract that I am going to quote.
'The final 2 columns in the illustrations are my own ratings and were, like the ability rating, evolved by myself, so will not be found in any publication etc. THE OBJECT OF THE EXERCISE IS TO BALANCE ABILITY WITH FORM and there are many ways to cross check the method outlined. One is to take the 5 most consistent horses in the field and from these extract the 3 with the highest ability rating. To illustrate let us have a look at the Spring Double, first the Lincoln. from the top of the handicap the 5 most consistent rates with ability ratings were: -
Horse________Ability___Total last 3
Bonol__________37________7_____fin 4th Herons Hollow___24_______11_____fin 2nd Sayer__________23________9_____fin 1st Glasgow Central__11________8 Raconteur_______15________6 Border Brook_____14________7
As can be seen the top 3 on ability from the 5 most consistent rates proved a formidable trio and given other factors anyone not selecting Saher should be asking questions of themselves. Now the National: -
Horse________Ability__Total last 3
Aldaniti_________23________4__________fin 1st Martinstown_____28_______11 Another Prospect_16_______11 Royal Stuart_____11________7 Sebastian V_____13_______10 Kylogue Lady____19________7 Royal Exile______37________8 Cheers_________11________7 Lord Gulliver_____15________8 Pacify__________13________8 Senator Maclacury 19_______11 Another Captain__16________6
As can be seen, the top 3 are Aldaniti, Martinstown and Royal Exile. Once again given other factors Aldaniti shouted out to be hammered. Readers may care to use the same cross check on the illustrations given March 28 (the Spells it All Out Piece) and it will no doubt help them to follow the issue.'
Jacknote: Once again VDW has to return to the misconception about ratings (figures this time) to stress that they are only used for confirmation. That they were his own ratings too not Haig, Timeform etc., that some claim nowadays. Also a different way to cross check runners identified as worthy of further investigation by the first 2 rating (evaluation) methods. Not many people seem to discuss this at all now?'
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 6, 2014 21:09:08 GMT
Selection System
The only races to use are handicaps for all age horses on the flat and all weather only, none for just 3 year olds or two year olds or races over the jumps. Look for races that say 'For 3yo+ or 4yo+', it will say this somewhere in the race title heading, certainly in the Racing Post or on the Racing Post web site which is free to use.
Only use these handicap races when there are between 8 and 14 runners inclusive. You may bet on races where there are 16 runners declared and two or more are then non runners, I would advise that you ignore races that end up with 7 or less runners due to non runners however.
The Rapid Profit Plan looks for horses that are fancied, fit and are at a decent price too if at all possible.
Use the Racing Post newspaper or the Racing Post web site which is free to use.
1. Mark each horse that is one of the first five named in the betting forecast. This may be more than five if the sixth or more are forecast at the same price as the others already selected.
2. From the horses selected above note the number of days since each horse last ran, (this is the small number after the horses name).
3. Cross off all horses that ran 22 days ago or more. This could leave you with 1, 2, 3 or all of the horses you have already marked. This may also mean you have no selections left if all the horses noted in the first part have run 22 days ago or more, in this case there is no bet.
4. Using all the horses you are left with, you must now look at the finishing position of each horse in it's last race, which is the number directly to the left of the horses name.
5. Your bet for each race are the two horses that have the worst form figure from their last race as long as it was 6th, 5th, 4th, 3rd or 2nd.
Choose first the horse that came 6th, if there is one (or two), then this is one of your bets. If no horse finished 6th last time out from your shortlist, then look for any horse that came 5th, then 4th, then 3rd, then 2nd.
Ignore any horse from this final list that won last time out. If you are only left with a horse or horses that won last time out, then this race is a no bet.
Example. If your shortlist after crossing off all horses that ran 22 days ago or more has the following:
Horse A came 6th last time out, Horse B came 2nd last time out, Horse C came 4th last time out and Horse D came 1st last time out, then Horses A and C are your two to take from the race.
If you have a tie for a couple of horses and need to decide which one to choose, then first take the horse with the highest Racing Post Rating, (the number in the circle next to the jockeys name on the card), then take the horse with the lowest total from it's last three runs taking '0' as 10. So, a horse with form figure of 305 would total 18.
You now want to EITHER back the two horses that you have to win OR back the first one with the worst form figure from it's last race starting with 6th and working downwards, each way.
The Rapid Profit Plan is based on common winning factors which are often repeated. The first five or so in the betting forecast are the horses thought by the experts to have the greatest chance of winning and by finding horses which have run within the last 21 days your selection should be race fit. A horse that came 6th, 5th or 4th last time out, (you will usually find your final bets came in one of these positions), ran close enough to have a chance but should be a better price than something that finished nearer to the winner.
As you are taking horses from the first five in the betting forecast this does not mean that all horses will run at shortish prices. Many of these horses drift in the betting and many winners have been backed at 10/1, even 20/1 using this method.
The winner of the race will be found from the shortlist you have AFTER number 3 above nearly 70% of the time, so you may wish to back all of these horses in the race to win a pre set amount of money whichever horse wins.
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Post by Kimmy on Jun 15, 2014 20:57:22 GMT
When assessing a race there are many factors to consider before deciding whether to back or lay a horse. These are the key factors to consider.
Form Ratings
Form study is one of the most important elements in picking winners. Every horse in every race is given a rating based on its' performance in the race – it is on ratings from previous races that a prediction on a horse's performance under today's conditions can be made. The outcome of most races is predictable through careful study of the form and the more time you spend studying form the more winners you will find. Form is factual information based on previous performance but the key skill lies not in looking at the bare form figures but interpreting the different elements that go to make up the complete picture. In other words, looking at today's conditions and the key elements for each horse and deciding which horse will run under the conditions.
The official form book is compiled by Raceform but there are many different private ratings services the most famous and the most easily accessible is that provided free by the Racing Post.
At the height of the flat season during the summer it is virtually impossible to study every race in the depth required so it can pay to concentrate on the better class of race as the form is more likely to prove reliable than in lower class races.
Course
There is a lot to be said for the old saying, “Horses for courses” when trying to pick a winner especially at some of the UK's quirkier tracks such as Chester, Epsom or Windsor. You should always consider any horse that has won at a course previously especially if over the same distance.
British racecourses while all are different many have aspects in common and it pays to know something of the nature of each course. Please look at the course description guide for information on each course.
Distance Of The Race
A lot of horses are quite versatile when it comes to race distance but most have an ideal trip or range of trips. This will not be obvious at the start of a horse's racing career but after a few runs this should become clear. A horse's breeding plays a significant part in it's distance preference with stamina and speed being inherited from it's sire and dam.
You need to be careful because of the varying nature of British racetracks because, for example, the 5f sprint course at Epsom is all downhill and very fast while the 5f sprint at Sandown is mainly uphill. Winners at Sandown are often capable of staying 6f or more while Epsom is for pure 5f speedsters.
Keep an eye out for horses stepping up in distance if they have been noted as running on well at the finish in previous shorter races. Generally a horse running on at the finish does not lack stamina and needs a longer distance.
Going
It has been thought that the best horses can act on any going, this may be true for the very best but every horse has a preference for a particular type of going. Breeding, like with distance, has an influence on a horse's going preference but also a horse's physical size and shape has a big influence. It is said that horses with large feet like heavy going. Also, a horses action, they way it moves it's legs, determines what type of ground suits it best. For example, horses with a round action in which they bring their knees high off the ground with each stride are more suited to softer going than horses that keep their foot low which are more suited to firm going.
Most horses are able to act on good going but if a horse's preference is for firm going and the going has been given has heavy then the horse's chances of winning are greatly reduced. You should always take this into account when looking for winners.
You should also take into account how the going differs on different courses, some courses can become particularly heavy when conditions are very wet while others with good drainage can dry out very quickly.
Draw
The draw in a race can be very important, although it becomes less so in races over a mile. This is because in longer races horses have longer to overcome a bad draw. The effect of the draw is much more significant at some courses than others. So much so that at some distances at some courses you can effectively dismiss that chances of some horses purely on the basis of which stall they have been drawn in. The most well known courses for this are Chester, Beverley and Goodwood. Please look at the course description guide for information on each course.
Weight
There have been many arguments about the effect that weight has in a race. Some well know ratings services do not take weight into account at all when calculating their ratings. It is totally up to yourself how much emphasis you put on the weight a horse is carrying and this only comes with experience.
The effect of weight is most significant in handicaps.
Class
All form is relative to class of the event in which is was recorded so it is important to be aware of the standard of the race you are betting on. A horse may have won it's last two races but if these races were won in a significantly lower grade with much lower rated horses then it may not be able to cope with the increased speed of it's higher rated rivals. You should therefore always take into account the class at which a horse has been running previously and that which it is running in today. There is often the chance to profit from horses which have been unlucky in better class races that is now dropping down in class.
Trainer and Jockey
It is very important to take into account the current form of the trainer and the jockey. Trainers tend to go through spells when their horses are going well and winning and spells when none of their horses seem to be able to get their nose in front. It is important to follow trainers when their horses are running well and do not back the horses when they are not. The racing press gives details of the form of trainers in what they call hot and cold lists.
Another factor to take into account is that some trainers target particular races every year and also specialise in finding winners at particular courses. Look into the history of previous winners before having a bet in a race.
Jockeys thrive on confidence, when they are winning they continue to do so but when losing they can try anything but are unable to get a horse to win. As with the trainers the racing press carry daily lists of hot and cold jockeys. Another factor similar to trainers is that some jockeys ride particularly well at certain courses while some jockeys can't buy a winner at a particular course. Look into a jockeys record at the course before having a bet.
Fitness
Horses go through spells of being on form and out of form, like in any sport. Some horses thrive on racing two or three times in a short space of time while others need a long time to recover from a race. Sprinters can be turned out again in a short space of time while three mile chasers may need a couple of months to recover. It is generally considered that a horse can only run to its top form for three races, any more and the form will drop away. The way to take this into account is to look at the horse's racing history and see how it performs after a break or whether it holds it's form if racing again after a short space of time.
Refinements
When talking about refinements it refers to item such as blinkers, sheepskin nosebands, tongue ties, etc. Blinkers for example are used to help a horse concentrate during a race because it forces the horse to look directly in front rather than to the side. First time blinkers can have a dramatic effect on a horse but horses can get used to the blinkers and they can lose their effectiveness. It is difficult to say how refinements should have an effect on your betting other than it is another factor to consider. Other Factors
Pace Of The Race
When looking at a race it is important to figure out how the race is going to be run. For example, if the horse you fancy likes to dominate a race from the front you need to look and see whether there are other horses going to take it on for the lead. If there are two or more front running horses in the race then they may start racing each other for the lead from the start and tire each other out before the finish leaving the path clear for a horse to come from off the pace. Or in the other extreme if there are no front runners in the race and all the horses like to be held up the race may be run at a very slow pace and you end up with a surprise winner.
Breeding
Breeding as discussed in key factors can have an influence on a horse's preference for a particular distance or a particular type of going but in experienced horses you should be able to work this out from a horse's previous races. Where looking at the breeding can be important is when looking at young horses and you only have very limited form on which to form an opinion, like maiden races. This is where you can look into a horse's breeding and can make an educated guess at what a horse's preferences will be.
Horse Preferences
Some horses have preferences for particular courses and do well there but not at other courses. Some horse only like to run left handed and find to impossible to win if turning right handed. This is another factor which you should look into when backing a horse.
General
If a horse has run badly in a previous race, look to see if there is an excuse. If there is one then you can ignore that run. If not leave the horse alone.
If you have doubts about a race then DO NOT BET. There will always be plenty more opportunities to have a bet.
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