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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 7:39:36 GMT
Monday: going, weather & non-runners Chelmsford (AW) GOING: POLYTRACK: STANDARD WEATHER: Light rain STALLS: 6f - Centre; Remainder - Inside NON RUNNERS: 8:15 Fareeq (1) Dundalk (AW) GOING: POLYTRACK: STANDARD WEATHER: Rain Plumpton GOING: HEAVY (INSPECTION 9AM) (GoingStick 5.0) (Rail movements; R1 & 4 +96y, R2 +90y, R3 +120y, R5 +135y, R6 +72y) WEATHER: Light rain Stratford GOING: SOFT (Heavy in places on Chase course) (GoingStick: Chs 5.3, Hdl 5.6) (INSPECTION 7:30am MONDAY) WEATHER: Light rain Taunton GOING: HEAVY (GoingStick 4.4) Race 1 +180 yds, Rs 2, 3, 5 & 7 +129 yards, R4 +33 yds, R6 +18 yds WEATHER: Light rain NON RUNNERS: 4:10 Dalaman (9)Man Of Plenty (1) 5:10 Definitelyanoscar (2)
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 7:40:25 GMT
Lambourn: Nick Deacon
First Mohican (4.10 Taunton)
Smart stayer on the flat on his day, and has shown ability in a light career so far over hurdles. Has not jumped in public for three years, but the absence has made the handicapper's heart grow a little fonder, and he is now racing off a lowish mark for one so highly rated on the flat.
Others to follow Chelmsford 5.45 Palawan. Plumpton 2.20 Seaston Spirit, 3.20 Sandhurst Lad. Stratford 2.30 Private Malone, 3.30 Fields Of Fortune. Taunton 1.40 Ilewin Geez.
10/1 First Mohican 4:10 Taunton Newmarket: David Milnes
Sir Hamilton (6.15 Chelmsford, nap)
Failed to stay when fourth over 1m2f at this venue last time but fancied to be more potent back at this trip. Denis Quinn's hope has since worked well on the Cambridge Road Polytrack.
Others to follow Chelmsford 6.45 Apex King, 7.15 Captain Pugwash, 7.45 Stone Of Destiny, 8.15 Justice Rock
4/1 Sir Hamilton 6:15 Chelmsford (AW) West Country: Tim Mitchell
Wotzizname (3.40 Taunton, nap)
Harry Fry’s lightly-raced eight-year-old showed a good attitude when winning at Doncaster last time and he is fancied to follow up back in handicap company.
Others to follow Plumpton 2.50 Le Coeur Net, 3.50 Molly Carew, 4.20 General Girling, 4.50 Mr Lando. Stratford 3.00 Peruvien Bleu, 3.30 Monsieur Lecoq, 5.00 Dark Episode. Taunton 2.10 Garrane, 3.10 Miss Tynte, 4.10 Delface, 4.40 Helium, 5.10 Definitelyanoscar.
15/8 Wotzizname 3:40 Taunton North: Colin Russell
Qaffaal (6.45 Chelmsford, nap)
Has a fine record over this course and distance and after a good run over 7f in a strong race at Newcastle last time he's fancied to get back to winning ways.
Others to follow Chelmsford 5.45 Roman De Brut, 6.15 Book Of Dreams, 7.15 Rainbow Rebel, 8.45 Firesnake. Stratford 3.00 Nietzsche, 3.30 Never A Word.
15/8 Qaffaal 6:45 Chelmsford (AW) Racing Post Ratings: Steve Mason
Mr Lando (4.50 Plumpton, nap)
Well-handicapped front-runner who shouldn't be inconvenienced by the drop down in trip after a return to form behind a well-treated subsequent winner at Taunton last month.
15/8 Mr Lando 4:50 Plumpton Topspeed: Dave Edwards
Sandhurst Lad (3.20 Plumpton)
Has finished runner-up twice over course and distance recently and the seven-year-old deserves a change of fortune.
11/4 Sandhurst Lad 3:20 Plumpton Longshot: Ed Quigley
At First Light (3.50 Plumpton)
Little of note when last seen, but has gone well fresh in the past, handles testing ground and has claims off a mark of 104.
11/1 At First Light 3:50 Plumpton Ireland: Tony O'Hehir
Apparition (5.05 Dundalk)
The Joseph O’Brien-trained four-year-old reverts to the Flat for the first time since September having won and been placed over hurdles. Successful over today’s 1m4f at the Curragh last year, he can score under Donnacha O’Brien.
7/1 Apparition 5:05 Dundalk (AW) Raceform Interactive Nugget
Qaffaal's record when running over 1m at Chelmsford is 1121 (+£11 to £1 level stakes.) The Michael Easterby-trained seven-year-old runs over that course and distance for the first time in a year at 6.45, in a race he won in 2017.
15/8 Qaffaal 6:45 Chelmsford (AW) Members can read the latest exclusive tipping content such as Pricewise and Paul Kealy from 8pm daily on racingpost.com
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 7:41:11 GMT
Over the past 14 days Tom Lacey has saddled three winners from just four runners, a 75 per cent strike-rate. The Ledbury-based trainer saddles Vado Forte in the 4.10 at Taunton.
At Chelmsford Charlie Wallis and William Carson have individual records of 12 per cent. When they team up that rises to 38 per cent. They do so today with Billyoakes in the 8.15 and Divine Call in the 8.45.
Emma Lavelle is six from 19, a 32 per cent strike-rate, with horses making their debut for her having switched from another stable. Blushing Red was a two-time Flat winner for Ed Dunlop and goes for Lavelle over hurdles for the first time in the 2m½f maiden (2.40) at Taunton.
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 7:41:39 GMT
Sounds Of Italy 4.20 Plumpton
9/4 Sounds Of Italy 4:20 Plumpton Michael Scudamore’s runner makes his chasing debut off a basement mark, and should have little difficulty getting off the mark.
A dual winner in the point-to-point field, Sounds Of Italy, who shaped with distinct promise over hurdles at Wetherby and Ffos Las this winter, has just ten stone to carry, and makes plenty of punting appeal.
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Post by dennisg on Mar 12, 2018 7:43:35 GMT
in today's sporting life.................. Ben Linfoot discusses the big talking points on day one of the Cheltenham Festival with the big four short-priced favourites under the microscope. Will favourite backers start the week with a bang with Getabird? With the Samcro switch failing to materialise, Getabird's task in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle is a lot easier than it might otherwise have been. But, still, he is very short for the raucous curtain raiser at 13/8. The rain helps him, as he’s a horse that’s been difficult to train and genuine spring ground would have been a worry, but the market suggests he has a clear class edge on his rivals and I’m not sure there’s anywhere near enough evidence to come to that conclusion just yet. He was very good in the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer at Punchestown, a race Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci have good recent previous with. Vautour and Douvan both won that Grade 2 before rocking up at Cheltenham and landing the Supreme in style, while Min would’ve completed the double had he not run into Altior. But Getabird stole some easy lengths at the start that day at Punchestown, got 6lb from his main rival Mengli Khan (not that it would’ve made any difference to the result) and it was just his second start over hurdles. He hasn’t added to that experience and both Douvan and Vautour had French hurdling form under their belt prior to their novice campaigns. It’s a concern and it has been brought up in the build-up that he ran out when going left-handed in a point-to-point, with all of his form under Rules going the other way around. That may or may not be relevant, I’d lean towards the latter and point to that lack of a class edge over his opposition as the main reason to oppose him on Tuesday. Both Kalashnikov and Summerville Boy have the form to challenge Getabird’s and Paloma Blue’s wouldn’t be far off either. Throw the impressive Sky Bet Rossington Main winner First Flow into the mix now he's got his conditions and you have a handful of worthy opponents before we even tackle the outsiders. Tactics could be key. Give Ruby Walsh an easy lead on this Getabird and he might be hard to peg back. But you would think the likes of Paloma Blue and First Flow won’t allow such a scenario and, on balance, this Mullins-Ricci Supreme hotpot looks a tad vulnerable at the prices. Full Sky Bet Supreme Novices' card & free video form Footpad has the measure of Petit Mouchoir Footpad had the measure of Petit Mouchoir last time Which horse will prosper in the Footpad-Petit Mouchoir-Saint Calvados Arkle burn-up? The clever answer here might well have been Sceau Royal prior to the setback that has ruled him out of the race, but the big three look the only ones to concentrate on now. The other one at a single-figure price is Brain Power, but his jumping frailties have been fully exposed the last twice in lesser contests than this one and it takes a serious leap of faith to think he’ll finally put it all together on the big stage in an Arkle that’s as hot as this one. Both Footpad and Saint Calvados have won their races from the front this season, while Petit Mouchoir’s best hurdling form came when he dominated from the outset as well, so the potential is there for a fierce battle for the lead. Judging by how easily Petit Mouchoir was brushed aside by Footpad at Leopardstown last month, even accounting for rustiness and the early mistakes he made, you would think his best chance of reversing that form is a change in tactics. When he beat Footpad over hurdles he led him from the outset, but getting in front of him early on won’t be easy given how well Willie Mullins’ horse jumps. And then there’s Saint Calvados, a horse that looked right at home when making all in the Kingmaker at Warwick. It’s a fascinating tactical quandary, but I can’t help but think Footpad will be the most adaptable to any scenario. He could take a lead off either Saint Calvados, Petit Mouchoir or both and sit behind waiting to pounce, while we know how dangerous he is himself on the front end. The other two might just need things to go their way. Footpad, on the other hand, could have all bases covered. He’s looked a natural so far over his fences, showing speed and class and everything you’d want in an Arkle horse. He very much looks the one to beat. Full Racing Post Arkle card and free video form Buveur D'Air at Cheltenham Buveur D'Air: In his prime ahead of his Champion Hurdle defence Is there a bet in the Unibet Champion Hurdle? The two-mile hurdling division is a weak one and unless Faugheen rediscovers something like his best form this should be a cruise for Buveur D’Air. I anticipate it to be just that, as I find it difficult to believe that even Willie Mullins can get Faugheen back in tip-top shape just 38 days after being beaten by a staying hurdler in Supasundae in the Irish Champion Hurdle. This is not a race for ageing legs, with all 27 horses aged 10 and over that have run in the race since 1981 having been beaten (thanks to Matt Tombs' Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide for that one). It’s going to be tough for Faugheen and I’m happy to take him on in all markets, even in first-time cheekpieces. At seven, Buveur D’Air is in his absolute pomp and he just looks too good for this year’s Champion Hurdle field, with his odds of 8/15 looking perfectly fair. As for a bet, though, the ‘without Buveur D’Air’ market makes most appeal. Three or four bookmakers have priced this up now including Sky Bet who go 13/2 about Melon. He looks the one to be on. If Labaik had done his usual trick and refused to race in the Sky Bet Supreme last year, we would be talking about an eight-length Supreme winner in Melon. That was just his second start over hurdles, while he’s only raced four times since then. He remains hugely unexposed. He’s a big price because he flopped at Leopardstown last time, but he’s worth forgiving one bad run. The first-time hood helped him settle that day but he lost his position three out before rallying for a 12-length fifth at the line. I’ve no doubt he’s much better than that and with the headgear left off, back at Cheltenham, I reckon he can produce an effort good enough to chase home Buveur D’Air in second. The two best performances of his career have come at Cheltenham, including his third in the International back in December. He travelled sweetly that day and gave way to My Tent Or Yours and The New One up the hill, but he was giving the former 6lb for just over a two-length beating. He’s weighted to reverse that form with My Tent off levels yet is a bigger price than Nicky Henderson’s second string. I couldn’t have a Ruby Walsh-less Yorkhill on my mind over two miles, while Wicklow Brave is a risky proposition at the start (was reluctant to jump off in this race last year). Working out which will be the best of the Mullins contingent could well be the key to this market and, for my money, Melon is the best placed to follow Buveur D’Air home. Full Unibet Champion Hurdle card and free video form Apple's Jade runs her rivals ragged Apple's Jade: The one to beat in the Mares' Hurdle Can anything beat Apple’s Jade in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle? It looks unlikely, doesn’t it? Unbeaten in four since she won this race last year, her scalps this season include last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle winner Nichols Canyon and subsequent Irish Champion Hurdle hero Supasundae. It’s form that none of her rivals in the Mares’ can match and this year’s renewal looks decidedly weaker than last year when she beat off Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag in a pulsating finish. Those two Willie Mullins-trained mares aren’t available for selection this time around but he bids to beat his old charge with another Rich Ricci-owned mare in the shape of Benie Des Dieux. The seven-year-old is a fascinating contender. She has looked a brilliant jumper of fences in three chase starts but reverts to hurdles here for the first time since her days in France. On the bare form her price of 4/1 is a world away from what she should be, but clearly she is held in high regard at home. Given how good she could be over fences, there is an easy comparison to be made with the now-retired Vroum Vroum Mag, a mare that excelled over the bigger obstacles before switching to hurdles extremely successfully. She won the Mares’ Hurdle on her third start after reverting to timber, though, while this could be a bit of a culture shock for Benie Des Dieux. She will have to be very special to beat Apple’s Jade on her first start over hurdles since her French career, that’s for sure. Benie Des Dieux could well challenge, her handler is renowned for his outstanding sourcing and campaigning of mares after all. But, perhaps, this year, the biggest challenger to Apple’s Jade might come from the Lambourn yard of Warren Greatrex. La Bague Au Roi has been in superb form all year, winning three from three. The problem is, her significant improvement has come over three miles and she was strongly considered for the Stayers'. If it turns into a test of stamina she could well challenge, but a more significant concern is that she’ll be done for speed. Apple’s Jade has plenty of that, she’s high class. I’m sure she could challenge in a Champion Hurdle or a Stayers’ Hurdle. But Gordon Elliott is placing her in the race she has the best chance of winning. And it’s hard to envisage her getting beat.
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 7:44:29 GMT
Plumpton
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
2.20 Larry
2.50 Duhallow Lad
3.20 Pop Rockstar
3.50 Loves Destination
4.20 Sounds Of Italy
4.50 Lubatic
GIMCRACK
2.20 Dell Oro
2.50 Sir Hubert
3.20 Ballyheigue Bay
3.50 Jubilympics
4.20 Black Franks Angel
4.50 Mr Lando
Stratford
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
2.30 Private Malone
3.00 Sleepy Haven
3.30 Monsieur Lecoq
4.00 San Pedro De Senam
4.30 Tinkers Hill Tommy
5.00 Dark Episode
GIMCRACK
2.30 Shanroe In Milan
3.00 Whatzdjazz
3.30 Ulysses
4.00 Lake Field
4.30 Alfstar
5.00 Hey Bud
Taunton
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
2.10 In The Hold
2.40 Nelson’s Touch
3.10 Grania O’Malley
3.40 Wotzizname
4.10 Man Of Plenty (nap)
4.40 Helium
5.10 Rosy World
GIMCRACK
2.10 Fearsome Fred
2.40 Flight To Milan
3.10 Kristal Hart
3.40 Wotzizname
4.10 Dalaman
4.40 Royal Act
5.10 Rosy World
Chelmsford City
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
5.45 Naralsaif (nb)
6.15 Artieshow
6.45 Qaffaal
7.15 Rainbow Rebel
7.45 Stone Of Destiny
8.15 Billyoakes
8.45 Alfonso Manana
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 7:45:06 GMT
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Post by dennisg on Mar 12, 2018 7:45:16 GMT
Anita Chambers says Able Jack can land the Bet Quadpot At totesport.com Handicap at Chelmsford on Monday. Able Jack has kicked off 2018 in something of a purple patch and he can keep up the good work in the Bet Quadpot At totesport.com Handicap at Chelmsford. The five-year-old has seemingly taken on a new lease of life since returning from 427 days off the track last November. Now with Stuart Williams having previously been trained by Andrew Balding, Able Jack took a couple of outings to warm up before hitting the mark over a mile at this track in January. Racing off his lowest mark for a long time on that occasion, Able Jack failed to follow up at Kempton next time but any suspicion his revised rating was to blame was erased when he obliged off that perch of 80 at Wolverhampton last time. Lifting a competitive event that day, Able Jack was probably good value for his three-quarter-length verdict and even with another 4lb on his back, he appeals as a relatively unexposed individual and just the type Williams does so well with. Stone Of Destiny should appreciate the slightly easier task he faces in the Bet Scoop6 At totesport.com Novice Stakes after trying his hand in a fast track qualifier last time out. Winner of a Newcastle novice on his debut, it was understandable that David Simcock would want to try him at a better level, but he was unlucky to bump into the admirable Corinthia Knight back at Gosforth Park at the end of last month. The winner is arguably the top dog in the three-year-old all-weather division this winter, so a near two-length defeat certainly makes Stone Of Destiny an animal of potential. Carouse is another ex-Balding inmate who can go well for Jamie Osborne in the Bet Exacta At totesport.com Handicap. He suffered a troubled passage when fourth on his first outing for the yard last month and granted a little more luck here, he should be in the mix. Whatzdjazz can get Dan Skelton off to a winning start in Cheltenham Festival week by scoring at Stratford. He lines up in the BetVictor #PRICEITUP Handicap Hurdle on the back of an encouraging comeback run at Market Rasen following an absence of 169 days. Ulysses finished third behind Triumph favourite Apple's Jade on his latest outing and should be good enough in the Lengthen The Odds With BetVictor Juvenile Hurdle. Beaten 21 lengths at Cheltenham, he kept on well on his debut for Barry Brennan and this is clearly an easier contest in which to shed his maiden tag. Ballyheigue Boy has been in fine form of late, scoring at Plumpton and Ascot and he can complete the hat-trick back at the former track in the 188Bet Best Priced Mullins Cheltenham Wednesday Handicap Hurdle while Wotzizname is the pick at Taunton. He lines up in the South West Racing Club Handicap Chase after beating the well-regarded Mount Mews at Doncaster last time and must be one for the short list. Sporting Life Suggestions CHELMSFORD: 5.45 Palawan, 6.15 Carouse, 6.45 ABLE JACK (NAP), 7.15 Captain Pugwash, 7.45 Stone Of Destiny, 8.15 Napping, 8.45 Divine Call. DUNDALK: 2.00 California Yoohoo, 2.35 Eacharn, 3.05 Highly Approved, 3.35 Port Lions, 4.05 Wedding Photo, 4.35 Baby Bellini, 5.05 Nimitz, 5.35 Easy Boy. PLUMPTON: 2.20 Dell Oro, 2.50 Sir Hubert, 3.20 Ballyheigue Boy, 3.50 Jubilympics, 4.20 Black Franks Angel, 4.50 Mr Lando. STRATFORD: 2.30 Shanroe In Milan, 3.00 Whatzdjazz, 3.30 Ulysses, 4.00 Lake Field, 4.30 Alfstar, 5.00 Hey Bud. TAUNTON: 2.10 Fearsome Fred, 2.40 Flight To Milan, 3.10 Kristal Hart, 3.40 Wotzizname, 4.10 Dalaman, 4.40 Royal Act, 5.10 Rosy World. DOUBLE: Able Jack and Stone Of Destiny.
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Post by dennisg on Mar 12, 2018 7:47:22 GMT
A Mick Easterby-trained horse at Chelmsford with a fine record over the course and distance is the Sporting Life Daily Nap selection from Ben Linfoot on Monday. Recommended bet: Sporting Life's Daily Nap, March 12 QAFFAAL won the Bet Quadpot At totesport.com Handicap last year and he can retain his title in the same race off the same mark of 88 on Monday. Last year he beat Take The Helm by a head but he's half a stone better off at the weights with that rival this time around and he looked in pretty good form at Newcastle last time when running on into fourth over seven furlongs. His best form is over a mile and further and he often runs well at this track, his victory in this race last year was his third over the course and distance. Daily Nap record: -11.74pts
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Post by dennisg on Mar 12, 2018 7:49:35 GMT
Owner Rich Ricci has confirmed Douvan could sidestep the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham on Wednesday and instead run in the Ryanair Chase the following day. The Willie Mullins-trained superstar has not been seen in competitive action since suffering a shock defeat and injury in last year's Champion Chase, but the multiple Irish champion trainer had stated his intention to let the eight-year-old line up in the two-mile showpiece again alongside fellow Ricci-owned stable companion Min. However, Mullins and his leading owner are now considering splitting their aces, with Douvan now set to take on another stablemate in Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair. Speaking on Racing UK's Luck On Sunday programme, Ricci said: "Douvan coming back at all is a massive ask, particularly in a red-hot Champion Chase. "The Ryanair has cut up fairly badly and we just thought it was worth considering going a different route. "I had a chat with Willie yesterday and we're open to the idea. It's no secret I like to split my horses - why fire two bullets at the same race if you don't have to? "Un De Sceaux is a very worthy favourite (for the Ryanair) and it would still be a big ask of Douvan, but it's certainly worth considering and we agreed we'd sleep on it and kick it around further. "We've got until Monday morning to make up our minds and we'll take all the time we need." The decision to potentially switch races will not be universally popular, but Ricci defended his position. "Things change. The Ryanair has cut up - there's not going to be many runners at all, I don't think - and it would be silly not to reconsider," he added. "We left the horses in the races and so many bookmakers are non-runner no-bet. The reaction I've seen is fair and pretty balanced. "There may be the occasional person having a go, but we've kept our options and we'll have to see where we get to."
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 7:56:53 GMT
A wet start to the week has left testing ground around Britain as the countdown to Cheltenham enters its final phase.
Overnight rain has led to an inspection being called at Plumpton at 9am, while a second check is needed for Stratford at 10.30am.
Both tracks are raceable, but the threat of further rain means inspections will need to be passed.
Plumpton clerk of the course Mark Cornford said: "We had four millimetres overnight and most forecasts suggest we will be clear of most of the rain by 8am.
"But forecasts can be wrong, so I'm being cautious and keeping people informed. I'm very hopeful racing will go ahead."
Following an initial check this morning at Stratford, a second inspection has been scheduled, and clerk of the course Nessie Chanter said: "We had eight millimetres overnight, and a further millimetre this morning.
"We are raceable but another three to six millimetres of rain is forecast this morning."
No inspection has been called at Taunton, though the going has eased to heavy, while Chelmsford and Dundalk stage all-weather cards.
Going report
Dundalk - first race 2.00 Standard
Taunton - 2.15 Heavy (GoingStick 4.4 on Monday at 6am)
Plumpton - 2.20 Heavy (INSPECTION 9AM)
Stratford - 2.30 Heavy (Soft in places on hurdles course) (Inspection 10.30am)
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 7:58:33 GMT
Deductions from Tote pools are likely to be reduced significantly under the terms of a multi-million-pound partnership that is set to be agreed between Fred Done and a new consortium of investors.
The investors, headed by former investment banker Alex Frost, are understood to have reached an agreement in principle to take a stake in the Tote as part of an investment in the pool betting operation which could total up to £150 million over the next five years.
Done previously revealed discussions had taken place over the sale of a 25 per cent stake and it is thought the consortium will increase that stake over time.
The consortium is backed by a number of racehorse owners and breeders. It is promising to significantly reduce deductions from pools with the intention to return to the Tote's previous levels to encourage greater volumes.
Furthermore it plans to contribute enough in sponsorship and boosts to prize-money to effectively double the normal levy payable to the sport.
A core aim of what will initially be a joint venture with Betfred will be to have regular £1 million pools for the Scoop6, Jackpot and Placepot – to which the bookmaker holds the brand rights.
If it is confirmed, the new deal will throw into question the future of the Britbet operation, which is backed by most of Britain's racecourses.
Frost, who is heading up the Alizeti consortium, said: "We are delighted to be close to an agreement with Fred Done and his team. There will be plenty more to say in due course but for now we want to concentrate on completing what we believe will be a very exciting deal for British racing."
Phil Siers, Betfred's chief commercial officer, said: "We are expecting a partnership agreement to be concluded shortly and look forward to working with Alizeti and our racecourse partners to deliver a vibrant Tote for the future."
Joining Frost, a member of the board at Epsom and former Merrill Lynch trader, in leading the consortium is former BHA board member Eamonn Wilmott in the role of chairman.
Reduced takeouts a key objective
One of the consortium's key objectives is to reduce pool takeouts to previous levels. In June last year, the Tote raised deductions for their win and place pools to 19.25 per cent and 20 per cent respectively.
It was the second time the Tote had increased win pool deductions since Betfred took over ownership of the operation as in October 2012 they rose to 16.5 per cent from 13.5 per cent, which was the first change since the then Tote chairman Peter Jones reduced the rate from 16 per cent in March 2003.
The development throws into question the future of racecourse project Britbet, which has a total of 54 tracks signed up including those under the Jockey Club, Arena Racing Company and Scottish Racing banners as well as Goodwood, Newbury and York.
Alizeti is understood to have offered to guarantee racecourses the same payments they currently enjoy from the Tote, plus additional benefits and sponsorship including the proposed payment of a double levy to racing.
With Betfred having tied their partners in Tote Direct to a long-term deal, Britbet faces a challenge getting their product into high-street betting shops.
Racecourses will now have to decide whether to persist with Britbet or remove the risks associated with that fledgling venture by agreeing deals with a revamped Tote operation.
Members can read the latest exclusive interviews, news analysis and comment available from 6pm daily on racingpost.com
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 9:32:25 GMT
The ground at Cheltenham was eased to heavy, soft in places on Monday morning following another period of concerted rainfall on Sunday.
The going was soft, heavy in places on Sunday afternoon, but after ten millimetres of rain overnight, Claisse flipped the description around. However he is pleased with how the course has taken the rain.
Speaking on Monday morning, Claisse said: "We're okay, the track has taken the rain better than I anticipated. There isn't much standing water around.
"We had a fairly intense period of rainfall between six and seven o'clock last night and again early doors this morning. Further rain is forecast through the day (three to four millimetres) so we're not anticipating seeing much change."
Although the ground is now heavy, Claisse dismissed any concerns of potential inspections, and added: "We're expecting a dry night and a dry day tomorrow."
The going for the cross-country course remains soft, heavy in places.
Claisse and his team will now put the finishing touches to the course site ahead of the four-day extravaganza, and reflecting on the recent extremes of weather, he added: "We've had a wet lead-up and have had 45/46 millimetres of rainfall in the last ten days.
"That came on the back of a week when temperatures were as low as -6C on the ground and -17C in the air, so it's been a challenging build-up."
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 9:34:11 GMT
Overnight rain led to an inspection being called at Plumpton at 9am, which has been passed, while a second check is needed for Stratford at 10.30am.
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 10:38:33 GMT
STRATFORD ABANDONED.
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 17:07:24 GMT
The significant rainfall that has turned the going at Cheltenham to heavy, soft in places will pose no threat to the festival starting as planned on Tuesday, according to clerk of the course Simon Claisse, who emphatically stated that "there is absolutely no danger whatsoever of an inspection". Cheltenham has been hit by 45/46mm of rain in the last ten days, and Monday's meeting at Stratford – which is just 30 miles away – was cancelled due to waterlogging, but no problems are expected at the festival.
Speaking on Racing UK on Monday afternoon, Claisse said: "There is absolutely no danger whatsoever of an inspection. I've been out there again at lunchtime with the course inspector and we're very happy with everything.
"Unless something completely untoward happens that nobody has got in their forecast then there is no question of the meeting being in any doubt whatsoever."
The going was soft, heavy in places on Sunday afternoon, but after ten millimetres of rain overnight, Claisse flipped the description around.
The ground will be the softest seen at the festival this century, but Claisse is pleased with how the course has taken the rain. On Monday morning, he said: "We're okay, the track has taken the rain better than I anticipated. There isn't much standing water around.
"We had a fairly intense period of rainfall between six and seven o'clock last night and again early doors this morning. We're expecting a dry night and a dry day tomorrow."
The going for the cross-country course remains soft, heavy in places.
Claisse and his team will now put the finishing touches to the course site ahead of the four-day extravaganza, and reflecting on the recent extremes of weather, he added: "We've had a wet lead-up and have had 45/46mm of rainfall in the last ten days.
"That came on the back of a week when temperatures were as low as -6C on the ground and -17C in the air, so it's been a challenging build-up."
Read exclusive previews for day one of the Cheltenham Festival from 6pm on Monday on racingpost.com
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 17:08:02 GMT
Racing at Chelmsford provides the last opportunity to bolster the betting bank before the Cheltenham Festival, and here are three runners to note on the seven-race card, which kicks off 5.45 and will be broadcast on At The Races . . .
Sir Hamilton 6.15 Chelmsford
Sir Hamilton displayed great promise in winning a pair of novice events over a mile but the step up to ten furlongs did not play to his strengths when attempting to defy a double penalty here last time.
He raced too keenly on that occasion, paying the price late on and weakening into fourth, but the drop back to a mile will suit this strong-travelling type and, with the form of his penultimate start working out well, an opening mark of 87 does not look severe.
3/1 Sir Hamilton 6:15 Chelmsford (AW) Qaffaal 6.45 Chelmsford
Qaffaal won this contest last year and looks primed to launch another bold bid, racing off the same mark and arriving on the back of a solid effort at Newcastle, where he finished fourth in a stronger contest over seven furlongs.
The handicapper eased Mick Easterby's runner 1lb after that creditable effort and the seven-year-old, who will benefit from the return to a mile, can make the most of this drop in class.
7/4 Qaffaal 6:45 Chelmsford (AW) Krazy Paving 8.45 Chelmsford
Krazy Paving has gone close the last twice for trainer Olly Murphy and should be difficult to beat with Luke Morris taking over in the saddle.
Morris was successful aboard the six-year-old when they last teamed up at Lingfield in January, prevailing by a nose in a tight finish, and Krazy Paving's most recent effort at Wolverhampton last month, when he wasn't beaten far having made his effort from further back than ideal, suggests he is still on a fair mark.
3/1 Krazy Paving 8:45 Chelmsford (AW) For the freshest betting advice, based on latest going and market conditions, don't miss the Live Tipster. Just click Raceday Live at racingpost.com or the mobile app
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 20:59:38 GMT
Plumpton, 12 Mar 18 Fixture Note Due to false ground, the first hurdle in the home straight will be omitted for all hurdle races. Race 4 - 3:50pm THE 188BET FALLER REFUNDS AT CHELTENHAM THURSDAY MARES' HANDICAP HURDLE RACE (CLASS 4) The winner, SNIPPETYDOODAH, appeared to show improved form compared with its previous run at Plumpton on 7 January 2018, where the mare finished seventh of thirteen, beaten by 49 ¾ lengths. The representative of Michael Roberts explained that SNIPPETYDOODAH was better suited by the heavy ground on this occasion which was riding looser than the heavy ground on the mare’s previous run which, in her opinion, was tacky. Her explanation was noted and SNIPPETYDOODAH was routine tested.
Race 5 - 4:20pm THE 188BET EXTRA PLACES AT CHELTENHAM FRIDAY HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 5) Seamus Mullins was fined £140 as the record of vaccinations in the passport of DANCING CONQUEST did not comply with the Rules of Racing.
Having reviewed recordings of the false start, the Starters were satisfied that no riders should be reported for contravening the starting procedures.
An enquiry was held to consider whether Jeremiah McGrath, the rider of DANCING CONQUEST which fell at the final fence, had continued in the race when the horse appeared to be exhausted. The rider and the Veterinary Officer were interviewed and recordings of the incident were viewed. The Veterinary Officer stated that the mare had appeared to be winded, but upon getting up DANCING CONQUEST was bright and alert. The rider explained that the mare had jumped low at the second last due to the winner jumping across her. DANCING CONQUEST had then travelled ok under a hands and heels ride between the second last and last fences, but in the final stride she had put down on McGrath and had not got high enough to jump the fence. His explanation was accepted. View Stewards report Stratford-on-avon, 12 Mar 18 Fixture Note Abandoned - Waterlogged Nothing to report View Stewards report Taunton, 12 Mar 18 Race 1 - 2:10pm THE EVENT CARE GLOBAL LTD HANDICAP HURDLE RACE (CLASS 5) Following the race, Sean Bowen reported that GEORGINA JOY, which was pulled up, hung badly right-handed throughout.
Race 2 - 2:40pm THE COURT FARM BUTCHERS MAIDEN HURDLE RACE (CLASS 4) Emma Lavelle, was fined £140 as the record of vaccinations in the passport of BLUSHING RED (FR) did not comply with the Rules of Racing.
Race 3 - 3:10pm THE RICHARD WILLIAMS MEMORIAL MARES' HANDICAP HURDLE RACE (CLASS 4) Following the race, Sean Bowen reported that RUBY RUSSET, which was pulled up, hung right-handed and Colin Tizzard's representative reported that the mare had a breathing problem.
Race 5 - 4:10pm THE INVEST SOUTHWEST HANDICAP HURDLE RACE (CLASS 4) Permission was given for BOX OFFICE (FR) to go early to post.
Having reviewed the start the Stewards were satisfied that FLO’SBOY SAM had refused to race and was deemed to be a runner.
The Stewards held an Enquiry into the start of Race 5. They interviewed the Starter and three of the riders: Wayne Hutchinson, the rider of FIRST MOHICAN, unplaced, Richard Johnson, the rider of LITTLE MISS POET, placed fourth and Harry Cobden, the rider of FLO’SBOY SAM, which refused to race. Having heard their evidence, a report was forwarded to the Head Office of the British Horseracing Authority for further consideration.
Race 6 - 4:40pm THE ROY DUNN MEMORIAL HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 5) Robert Hawker, the rider of TIKKINTHEBOX (IRE), placed third, was suspended for 2 days for using his whip without allowing sufficient time for his mount to respond from the last fence. Being a 7lb claimer, Hawker was offered the opportunity to have someone accompany him in the enquiry but declined.
Race 7 - 5:10pm THE FAMILY EASTER RACEDAY 26TH MARCH MARES' STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 5) MRS MIGGINS (IRE) wore ear plugs. View Stewards report Chelmsford City, 12 Mar 18 Race 1 - 5:45pm THE BET PLACEPOT AT totesport.com HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 5) Following the race Shelley Birkett reported that SPIRIT OF SARWAN (IRE), placed seventh, was slowly away.
Race 2 - 6:15pm THE BET EXACTA AT totesport.com HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 4) Following the race Marc Monaghan reported that ARTIESHOW (USA), placed fifth, ran flat. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the colt during routine testing failed to reveal any abnormalities. The Veterinary Officer reported that CAROUSE (IRE), placed fourth, was lame left fore.
Race 4 - 7:15pm THE BET TRIFECTA AT totesport.com HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 4) The performance of RAINBOW REBEL (IRE), placed sixth, was considered. The representative of Mark Johnston could offer no explanation for the gelding’s performance.
Race 5 - 7:45pm THE BET SCOOP6 AT totesport.com NOVICE STAKES (CLASS 5) Permission was given for ADMISSIBLE to go early to post.
Race 6 - 8:15pm THE WAKE UP TO BEN-SON BBC ESSEX HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 6) (DIV I) Following the race Kevin Lundie reported that BERTIE BLU BOY, placed seventh, was never travelling. Nicola Currie reported that JUSTICE ROCK, placed fifth, hung right.
Race 7 - 8:45pm THE WAKE UP TO BEN-SON BBC ESSEX HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 6) (DIV II) Following the race Hollie Doyle reported that MULTIQUEST, unplaced, stopped quickly.
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 21:00:35 GMT
Conditions at Cheltenham were heavy, soft in places on the two main tracks on Monday afternoon.
However, Tuesday's opening card of the four-day Festival is not in any doubt, according to c lerk of the course Simon Claisse.
Claisse revealed that 14 millimetres had fallen on the course since Sunday night but that it had finally stopped just after 4pm.
"I think the rain has almost stopped actually. It started last night and we've had just a little bit over what was anticipated, up to 14mm by now," he said.
"As a consequence of that, we've changed the ground to heavy, soft in places on both the Old and New Courses. The Cross Country is not so slow, that's soft, heavy in places.
"The outlook now is for a dry night and a dry day tomorrow and Wednesday, with temperatures around 10 or 11 degrees, which should be very pleasant for racegoers. We might even see the ground less slow over the next couple of days.
"Unless that forecast is spectacularly wrong, there's no danger of an inspection."
The next significant rain is due overnight on Wednesday.
"There could be quite a bit of rain Wednesday night into Thursday, but we have got a lot of fresh ground on the New Course, so I think we'll be in good shape come the end of the week too," said Claisse.
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 21:02:22 GMT
Lambourn: James Burn
Claimantakinforgan (1.30 Cheltenham, nap)
Third in the Champion Bumper last term, this six-year-old has a touch of class, should be okay on the ground and will enjoy the strong pace and stiff finish. Can go close in a race trainer Nicky Henderson does well in.
18/1 Claimantakinforgan 1:30 Cheltenham Others to follow Cheltenham 2.10 Saint Calvados, 2.50 Gold Present, 3.30 Buveur D'Air, 4.10 La Bague Au Roi, 4.50 Keeper Hill, 5.30 Rather Be. Newcastle 6.45 Qafilah, 7.45 Dark Freedom. Sedgefield 1.55 Lostnfound.
Newmarket: David Milnes
Kalashnikov (1.30 Cheltenham, nap)
Amy Murphy's star won't be stopping up the hill like many others in this ground and is fancied to provide Newmarket's biggest win at the Festival for many years. The son of Kalanisi excelled in his final schooling session on the local Links last Thursday.
9/2 Kalashnikov 1:30 Cheltenham Others to follow Southwell 3.45 Haddal. Newcastle 7.15 Nick Vedder, 7.45 Solid Man.
West Country: Tim Mitchell
Sizing Tennessee (4.50 Cheltenham, nap)
Only victory over fences came at the course and the longer trip in the prevailing testing conditions should be very much in his favour.
8/1 Sizing Tennessee 4:50 Cheltenham Others to follow Cheltenham 1.30 Slate House, 2.50 Eamon An Cnoic, 5.30 Le Rocher.
North: Colin Russell
Testify (5.30 Cheltenham, nap)
Has taken really well to chasing this season, winning all three of his races though they have been small-field affairs. He jumps particularly well and, as he acts on testing ground and stays well, is fanced to go well again.
9/1 Testify 5:30 Cheltenham Others to follow Cheltenham 2.50 Vintage Clouds, 4.50 Shades Of Midnight. Newcastle 5.45 Something Brewing, 6.15 Big Kitten, 6.45 Dowitcher, 7.15 Rockwood, 7.45 Bad Dog, 8.15 Count Montecristo, 8.45 Windforpower. Sedgefield 1.20 Its Pandorama, 1.55 Tokaramore, 2.35 Frankie Ballou, 3.15 Drums Of War, 3.55 Instant Replay, 4.35 Always Resolute, 5.10 Peters Cousin. Southwell 1.10 Mimic's Memory, 1.45 Tellovoi, 2.25 My Renaissance, 3.05 Afandem, 3.45 Rantan, 4.25 Dapper Man, 5.00 Miss Dandy.
Topspeed: Dave Edwards
La Bague Au Roi (4.10 Cheltenham)
Has won seven of her nine starts over hurdles and this progressive mare could still be on the upgrade.
13/2 La Bague Au Roi 4:10 Cheltenham Longshot: Ed Quigley
Jer's Girl (4.10 Cheltenham)
Was still travelling well in this race 12 months ago when falling three out. Looks to have solid each-way claims once again.
10/1 Jer's Girl 4:10 Cheltenham Ireland: Tony O'Hehir
Footpad (2.10 Cheltenham, nap)
A good performer over hurdles who has stepped up a gear since going over fences. He goes on the ground and has jumped exceptionally well in making it three from three over fences, including a couple of Grade 1s at Leopardstown. Has outstanding claims and can give Ruby Walsh a fourth win in the Arkle Trophy and Willie Mullins a third.
11/10 Footpad 2:10 Cheltenham The Raceform Interactive Nugget
Gordon Elliott's record in the National Hunt Chase is 1P1F1 (+£27 to £1 stakes), improving to 111 with horses that had Official Ratings of 146+. Jury Duty, rated 148, represents him this year.
5/1 Jury Duty 4:50 Cheltenham Members can read the latest exclusive tipping content such as Pricewise and Paul Kealy from 8pm daily on racingpost.com
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 21:03:11 GMT
4/1 Crosse Fire 3:05 Southwell (AW) Eight-time course winner lines up in terrific shape, having made all at a very strong pace over five furlongs last Thursday.
He was competing from 4lb out of the handicap that day, so is effectively only 2lb higher - despite a 6lb penalty - and can prove too quick and resilient for his rivals once again.
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 12, 2018 21:03:39 GMT
Nigel Twiston-Davies has been in good form the past fortnight and looks to have a live chance with Cogry in the 2.50 at Cheltenham. He has won his last two starts at the track and will relish the tough conditions.
Windforpower goes in the 8.45 at Newcastle, a race he won last year off a 1lb lower mark. This four-time course-and-distance winner was just touched off at the track on Friday and looks to hold strong claims once again.
Charlie Hills has a solid 32 per cent strike-rate with his runners at Newcastle. Qafilah (6.45) and Dark Freedom (7.45) look to have decent claims under jockey PJ McDonald, who has ridden two winners from just three rides for the trainer at the track.
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Post by dennisg on Mar 13, 2018 7:45:09 GMT
in today's sporting life.................. Our team of experts with their best bets for day one of the Cheltenham Festival - plus details of all the Sky Bet offers. Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tips Full racecard and free video form (Click on tipster name for in-depth preview) Ben Linfoot: Debuchet (each-way) David Ord: First Flow Matt Brocklebank: Paloma Blue Richard Mann: Claimantakinforgan Lydia Hislop: Summerville Boy Oli Bell: Summerville Boy Donn McClean: Will appear here Mike Cattermole: First Flow Simon Holt: Kalashnikov Alex Hammond: Getabird Racing Post Arkle Tips Full racecard and free video form (Click on tipster name for in-depth preview) Ben Linfoot: Footpad David Ord: Footpad Matt Brocklebank: Petit Mouchoir Richard Mann: Footpad Lydia Hislop: No bet Oli Bell: Saint Calvados Ed Chamberlin: Footpad Donn McClean: Will appear here Mike Cattermole: Saint Calvados Alex Hammond: Footpad Ultima Handicap Chase Tips Full racecard and free video form (Click on tipster name for in-depth preview) Ben Linfoot: Ramses De Teillee David Ord: Ramses De Teillee Matt Brocklebank: Vintage Clouds Richard Mann: Yala Enki Lydia Hislop: Shantou Flyer Donn McClean: Will appear here Mike Cattermole: Coo Star Sivola Simon Holt: Vintage Clouds Alex Hammond: Vintage Clouds Unibet Champion Hurdle Tips Full racecard and free video form (Click on tipster name for in-depth preview) Ben Linfoot: Buveur D'Air David Ord: Buveur D'Air Matt Brocklebank: Melon (without the favourite) Richard Mann: Buveur D'Air Lydia Hislop: Faugheen (without the favourite) Donn McClean: Will appear here Mike Cattermole: Buveur D'Air Alex Hammond: Buveur D'Air OLBG Mares' Hurdle Tips Full racecard and free video form (Click on tipster name for in-depth preview) Ben Linfoot: Apple's Jade David Ord: Apple's Jade Matt Brocklebank: Benie Des Dieux Richard Mann: Apple's Jade Lydia Hislop: La Bague Au Roi (without the favourite) Oli Bell: Apple's Jade Donn McClean: Will appear here Mike Cattermole: Apple's Jade Alex Hammond: Apple's Jade National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase Full racecard and free video form (Click on tipster name for in-depth preview) Ben Linfoot: Mossback David Ord: Jury Duty Matt Brocklebank: Jury Duty Richard Mann: Jury Duty Lydia Hislop: Sizing Tennessee Ed Chamberlin: No Comment Donn McClean: Will appear here Mike Cattermole: Rathvinden Alex Hammond: Rathvinden Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase Full racecard and free video form (Click on tipster name for in-depth preview) Ben Linfoot: Tycoon Prince David Ord: Rather Be Matt Brocklebank: Any Second Now Richard Mann: De Plotting Shed Lydia Hislop: Any Second Now Oli Bell: Le Rocher Ed Chamberlin: Mister Whitaker Donn McClean: Will appear here Mike Cattermole: De Plotting Shed Alex Hammond: Livelovelaugh
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Post by dennisg on Mar 13, 2018 7:47:53 GMT
The Cheltenham Festival is upon us, so it's time for 'Road' author Lydia Hislop's final analysis of the first day, which includes five selections. 1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle As the 15/8 favourite, Getabird’s frailties must be closely examined so the fact he’s facing a left-handed track for the first time since running out in a Point is a worry. In his defence, he was an extremely inexperienced horse at the time and the track’s orientation might have been coincidental. Whatever the reason, it can only be construed as a negative however. It may also be that his dizzy odds owe something to past Supreme winners also trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Rich Ricci, but Vautour was sent off at 7/2 and Douvan at 2/1. This horse also surprised connections when showing enough speed for this race rather than the Ballymore. Getabird also faces at least three opponents who’ve already established form good enough to hit the frame in most Supremes: Betfair Hurdle winner Kalashnikov, his Tolworth conqueror Summerville Boy and the quirky Mengli Khan. As heavy ground is likely (and we’ll know more on this critical factor only once the first race has been timed), it’s reasonable to throw First Flow into that mix given his form isn’t that far adrift of this marker. Getabird has already humbled Mengli Khan by nine lengths in Punchestown’s Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novices’ Hurdle and, though a first-time tongue-tie on the latter is designed to help bridge that gap (I was expecting headgear), the heavy ground counts markedly against him returning to his Royal Bond level. Kalashnikov wasn’t travelling well from an early stage at both Sandown and Newbury, so the concern for him is whether he can keep in touch with the key competitors on this sharp track. There will surely be no horse finishing more powerfully than him from the second last, however. Summerville Boy beats Kalashnikov in the Tolworth Summerville Boy beats Kalashnikov in the Tolworth Noel Fehily was adamant after Summerville Boy won the Tolworth that he "hated" the ground. His jockey may yet prove to be correct, but at the moment the formbook says that heavy-ground Grade One success was by far his best performance yet. There’s no good reason for him being a longer price than Kalashnikov and he will thrive on the likely good pace provided by a clutch of potential front-runners. We even know he handles Cheltenham. He’s the obvious play as things stand. First Flow doesn’t need to lead but wasn’t going to run here until the weather rightly made his trainer Kim Bailey re-assess. He’s straightforward, generous, unbeaten over hurdles and improving at the right time. The concern is that connections deem him relatively raw for the task (albeit such a worry might also legitimately apply to Summerville Boy). The argument for Claimantakinforgan (third in last year’s Festival Bumper), Sharjah, Slate House, perhaps Lostintranslation and probably the mare (receiving a very handy 7lb allowance) Dame Rose greatly relied on a sound surface. I’d be prepared to overlook that alleged concern if I fancied Western Ryder, who swaps here from the Ballymore probably for that reason. Outsiders such as Us And Them and Trainwreck are proven in deep ground but need to find a deal of improvement. Both 2017 Festival Bumper runner-up Debuchet and Paloma Blue handle it; the lightly-raced former may come on for his recent valuable experience and the latter could do much better settled in a well-run race. Selection: Already advised 06/12/17: Mengli Khan at 15/2 with Betfair Sportsbook Back now: Summerville Boy at 8/1 BOG with various bookmakers 15 Summerville Boy66 611-7OR: 150D 7/1 Form: 12231T: T R GeorgeJ: N D Fehily Last run Live betting powered by 2.10 Racing Post Arkle Novices’ Chase You can date the Arkle from its title inauguration when Chatham won in 1969 or include its predecessor the Cotswold Chase; whatever, this year’s edition musters the smallest field since at least 1946. In fact, since 2011 when the JLT was introduced to this meeting, it has only managed double figures twice. Nonetheless this is a compelling contest with at least three serious players, two boasting the classic Arkle profile as former high-class hurdlers. Footpad is the rightful favourite, having (at this stage, at least) improved past Petit Mouchoir in comparison to their three hurdles encounters. It’s his technique that’s made the difference – so far Footpad has jumped like an old, but incredibly efficient, hand. He’s also sufficiently versatile ground-wise and straightforward as regards tactics. There is little not to like bar the 11/10. The argument for Petit Mouchoir rests on him improving a good deal from his encounter with Footpad last month. He was then returning from a setback that had kept him off the track since last October and he made mistakes at the first two fences, markedly at the second. He’s entitled to take a step forward. Footpad has the measure of Petit Mouchoir Footpad has the measure of Petit Mouchoir The drawbacks are that he tends to get worked up prior to his races and, due to the presence of Saint Calvados, he may neither be able to lead (the run style of his best performances over hurdles) nor his jumping withstand the examination. That horse has on paper achieved just as much as Footpad; the only quibble is that he’s done so against horses much inferior to Petit Mouchoir and therefore was able to control those races more readily. Of course, this offers the possibility it could be his – rather than that grey’s – jumping that comes undone. Yet Saint Calvados has so far been a superb jumper and is probably advantaged by heavy ground, hence his promotion to second favourite in some books. It’s a known unknown whether he can transfer his evident flat-track ability to sharp yet undulating Cheltenham but he doesn’t land steeply in the way that catches many such horses out. Let the record show he’s a five-year-old and they haven’t won since the weight-for-age was altered but only 10 have tried. Next in the betting is Brain Power, who typically refused to settle in last year’s Champion Hurdle and finished well adrift of third-placed (front-runner) Petit Mouchoir and fourth (never truly involved) Footpad. He’s also yet to prove he can be at his best racing left-handed and arrives here after unseating and falling on his last two starts. There were some mitigating factors to both of those non-completions but heavy ground will also rigorously test whether his recent breathing operation has worked. Not for me. Robinshill also has completion issues, having only got round over Ludlow’s forgiving fences. The ground will be fine but he has better form at other tracks and is simply not good enough. Selection: No bet. None of the three relevant prices appeal, given the presence of the other two horses. 3.30 Unibet Champion Hurdle As his price reflects, Buveur D’Air is by far the most likely winner of this race but the fact is the single best form-line on offer from this field does not belong to him and neither does he boast their collective career peak. Both those achievements belong to Faugheen and yet he’s still as big as 13/2. I am not in any way arguing the 2015 hero will return to his brilliant best but even the recovery of his seasonal-debut ability represents form comparable to that which Buveur D’Air achieved when winning this race last year. Therefore, we have the potential for a duel rather than a procession. Many have retrospectively downgraded Faugheen’s 16-length defeat of Jezki last October due to the collateral form since shown by those horses he beat. In some ways, that’s entirely reasonable but it doesn’t account for the strong time he clocked on the day. Having not previously raced since his career spike performance in the 2016 Irish Champion Hurdle, it’s possible that Faugheen recoiled from such a huge effort (‘bounced’ in racing parlance) and hence the dispiriting sight of him pulling up in the Ryanair Hurdle next time out. His second to Supasundae in this year’s Irish Champion Hurdle represented a recovery from that huge retrograde step, albeit not a return to his first-time-out form. I’d half-expected that Leopardstown outing to conclude with news of his retirement but instead (to my mind) it both reduced the threat of him bombing out here and hinted at the possibility of further improvement at Cheltenham. Supasundae had Faugheen's measure, but it was Mullins' day regardless Faugheen was second to Supasundae last time The reunion with Ruby Walsh, who holds so much confidence in him and who got him jumping better than anyone else, is a positive (albeit it carries the corollary risk of him attacking to the degree that hitting the frame could be threatened). It’s also highly possible that first-time cheekpieces might relight this ten-year-old’s fire. Both Faugheen and Buveur D’Air are capable of functioning to a high degree in testing ground, albeit perhaps the advantage gained via the latter’s slick hurdling might be a tad diminished. Walsh is likely to attack from the front and Barry Geraghty will position the titleholder anywhere he likes in behind. Although Buveur D’Air has won all three of his starts this term in a manner that suggests he’s still capable of far better, that remains an assumption; he hasn’t had to run anywhere near his best to triumph – probably not even as well as Faugheen’s latest form in defeat. Henderson’s decision to declare under-achieving Charli Parcs is interesting, the word being he’ll try to set the pace for his stablemates despite never before having made the running in his entire professional life. He’s also said to be unsuited by testing ground, so how long he’ll last in the role is debatable but his presence may be designed to ensure Walsh doesn’t get to control the race entirely at his pleasure. Aside from the big two – admittedly, a single-figure calculation for some – the rest are much of a muchness. Supplemented Elgin loves soft ground, is improving and a lot tougher cookie than when seventh to Labaik in last year’s Supreme. (Call Me Lord’s narrow Imperial Cup defeat last Saturday shouldn’t be taken too literally as a boost of Elgin’s Kingwell success, however, as the former was greatly disadvantaged by sticking to Wincanton’s inside line.) On paper Elgin comfortably holds Ch’Tibello, whom he beat two-and-a-half lengths conceding 4lb in the Kingwell, however the latter handles heavy going and may be ridden the more circumspectly of the pair. He offers some interest each-way in the ‘betting without the favourite’ market, especially if you’re of the opinion Faugheen is a paper tiger. Heavy rain and snow has seriously disadvantaged three-times runner-up, 11-year-old My Tent Or Yours, as well as my fleeting ‘betting without’ each-way notion John Constable. Identity Thief isn’t good enough these days, if he ever was, and this track might not suit Mick Jazz. Please take note that seven-times Irish champion amateur Patrick Mullins rides Wicklow Brave because he was on board for that horse’s two best career performances to date: winning the 2017 Punchestown Champion Hurdle (beating My Tent Or Yours) and when third in the 2015 Morgiana. If they can start on terms – Wicklow Brave an aversion to timely starting – they’ll definitely be playing for places. That leaves the remaining two of Mullins’s quartet of contenders. We may not yet have seen the best of Melon, last year’s Supreme runner-up. He shaped promisingly when third in a slowly-run edition of the International and is said to have resented the first-time hood when underperforming behind Supasundae last time. This (likely) strongly-run race will help him settle and could provoke a career best. Of course, Yorkhill is the joker in this pack – albeit he could yet also be declared for Thursday’s Ryanair. Why change the habits of a liftetime? He was a clumsy hurdler when last seen in public over smaller obstacles two seasons ago and has been campaigned confusingly this term: with some promise until ultimately a well-beaten non-stayer in the Christmas Chase and then seemingly unable to jump fences cleanly at two-mile pace well behind Min in the Dublin Chase. His tendency to jump left has worsened, if anything. He is without Walsh (who rode him masterfully to win last year’s JLT) and Paul Townend rides Melon instead, so the task of managing this head-case falls to David Mullins. The first-time strike-rate of chasers switching to Grade One hurdles is poor. In this, if nothing else, I expect Yorkhill to be no anomaly. Selection: Already advised 02/03/18: Faugheen each-way at 5/1 NRNB BOG (currently 13/2) 1/4 odds a place with Bet 365 for the Champion Hurdle (or 13/2 e/w NRNB 1/5 odds a place with Betfair Sportsbook) 4.10 OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle Apple’s Jade won this race last year narrowly from better opposition than she faces this time around. Furthermore, she has improved again this season, stays further than this 2m4f trip and is very much at home on testing ground. She is hard to oppose. The market says her main rival is Benie Des Dieux but even though she is an able mare and the chief hope of a trainer who’s won this race in eight of its 10 years, there are serious doubts about her price relative to her profile. First, she’s switching from fences straight into a Grade One hurdle – a terribly difficult task according to the pitiless stats. Even though this is ‘only’ a mares’ event, admittedly, she still faces a favourite accustomed to beating geldings. Second, Willie Mullins has usually given her more time to recover between starts; this may be happenstance rather than design but it remains a doubt. Third, she only has the third-best form in the race. The positives are that she handles testing ground and shapes as though a step back up to 2m4f would be very much up her street – and then there’s the very fact of her trainer and jockey, who have monopolised this event. In opting to run La Bague Au Roi here rather than in Thursday’s Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle, Warren Greatrex has prioritised a shallower opposition over suitability of trip. His mare is an improved model at three miles this season but has also long been said to prefer a sound surface – although her latest Ascot success, her best yet, suggests she should cope with this ground. She finished seventh in the Trull House Stud Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival, probably after having too much use made of her over an inadequate trip. A more conventional ride should see her emerge as the main threat to Apple’s Jade here. You never know, if it’s really testing and stamina becomes the most relevant factor, she might even give her a fright. Jer’s Girl was still going well enough when falling three out in the hot 2017 edition of this race but she’s been beaten by both the favourite and La Bague Au Roi this term and has since missed work due to a setback. Indian Stream was a never-really-competitive fourth last year but was in career-best mood going into that race rather than in poor form, as she is now. Kayf Grace is unproven at the trip (shapes as though she’ll stay) and also in the ground but didn’t have a hard race in the Betfair Hurdle last time out. None of Pravalaguna (albeit ground a positive), Midnight Jazz (well held last year) and Midnight Tour (capable at her best and at this course but below that of late) appears quite good enough. Selections: Already advised 31/12/17: Let’s Dance 12/1 each-way for the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle with William Hill [NON-RUNNER] Back now: La Bague Au Roi at 5/2 with BetVictor in the ‘without Apple’s Jade’ market 6 La Bague Au Roi52 711-5OR: 154 11/2 Form: 761-111T: W GreatrexJ: R Johnson Last run Live betting powered by Other races In the Ultima Handicap Chase, Shantou Flyer finally gets to step back up to three miles after shaping as if in absolute need of it for most of this season. Heavy ground suits him just fine and a switch of headgear – something that produced a spike of form in January – is a further positive, not to mention James Bowen’s 3lb claim. When beaten at Cheltenham on Trials Day, Sizing Tennessee ran far better than the literal form after being too aggressively ridden in the conditions for a horse of his stamina. He’s looked like a NH Chase project all term long but connections briefly flirted with the RSA Chase. His jumping has improved as the season has progressed and he’s mixed it over shorter trips with really quite decent horses in this context, such as Yanworth and Willoughby Court. He handles testing ground and, as a second-season chaser, boasts the ideal profile for this race. Finally, the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase has a mere 8lb span from the top- to the bottom-weight. Any perceived plot is therefore probably less important than actual ability. Luckily, Any Second Now has got both. He’s chased home a series of classy rivals while learning his trade, is highly capable in testing ground and will benefit from stepping back up in trip. Selections: Back now: Shantou Flyer each-way at 18/1 for the Ultima Handicap Chase with Sky Bet (5 places, 1/5 odds) Back now: Sizing Tennessee at 9/1 with various firms Back now: Any Second Now at 6/1 with various firms 4 Shantou Flyert,v126 811-9OR: 152BFC
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Post by dennisg on Mar 13, 2018 7:49:58 GMT
Our flagship racing tipster Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day one of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival and he's backing five horses at big prices. Recommended Bets: Value Bet Cheltenham Festival day one For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record It’s the Cheltenham Festival, but not as we know it, not for a long time anyway. The ground is heavy, soft in places and it’s at least 20 years since it started this testing. With the ground in mind it’s natural to think there will be plenty of unfathomable results, but, while there are likely to be a fair few shocks, I’m not seeing too many negatives for the big guns on Tuesday afternoon. If anything Buveur d’Air’s chance is enhanced on testing ground in the Unibet Champion Hurdle. He loves getting his toe in and while chief rival Faugheen also relishes this sort of ground, he does have plenty to prove now after two below-par runs. His latest second in the Irish Champion Hurdle was a step in the right direction, but that was only 38 days ago and it would be some feat from both horse and trainer if the 10-year-old was up to the challenge, even in first-time cheekpieces. Footpad and Apple’s Jade also look the class acts in their races and will have no problems with the conditions, either, so the big day one four-timer has every chance of going in if Getabird lands the opening Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. However, he looks by far the most vulnerable of the quartet of short-priced favourites on day one and he’s worth taking on. If Ruby Walsh somehow managed to negotiate a soft lead then Getabird will be hard to peg back, but that looks unlikely in this big field with the likes of Us And Them, First Flow, Lostintranslation and maybe Paloma Blue, if he pulls his way to the front like last time, in opposition. Tactically he may have to adjust and I don’t think he has anywhere near as much in hand as odds of around 7/4 suggest. I’m happy to take him on and though Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy and First Flow are respected, there is one at a huge price that’s worth a small each-way punt and that horse is Mags Mullins’ DEBUCHET at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3). Second in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper last year, this horse was 14/1 for the Supreme at the start of the season but has drifted to big odds after failing to light up the novice hurdling scene in a couple of runs this campaign. However, he improved plenty from his first to second start and ran perfectly well when sixth in the Deloitte last time behind Samcro, especially given his jumping was average. He certainly didn’t gain ground on the field at his hurdles but if he can jump better with that run under his belt he’s no forlorn hope. Despite not impressing at his hurdles he still managed to finish ahead of Sharjah, a horse that is 20/1 for the Supreme, and just four lengths behind Paloma Blue, a 12/1 chance in the Festival’s opening race. We know from last year’s bumper he enjoys a big field at Cheltenham and he raced widest of all that day, looking like an extremely impressive winner before Fayonagh flew from the back to deny him up the hill. Both Back In Front and Cinders And Ashes were beaten in the Champion Bumper before returning the following year and winning the Supreme, though, and despite his slow progress over timber he could well spring a shock at fancy odds in a race that looks more open than the market suggests. 2 Debuchet37 511-7OR: -BFD 28/1 Form: 2121-46T: Ms M MullinsJ: D E Mullins Last run Live betting powered by The Ultima Handicap Chase at 2.50 is going to be a real test of stamina in the conditions and true stayers that go well in heavy ground look a better option than the flashier types. I’m not sure Gold Present wants it this soft and I’d be wary of backing him off a big weight despite his talent and good form, while Coo Star Sivola looks short enough to me after going up half a stone for winning a bad race at Exeter just 18 days ago. With David Pipe having won this race three times in the last decade and an average of one Festival handicap for every year that he’s had a licence, his team of handicappers are always worthy of respect and RAMSES DE TEILLEE (12/1 General) looks one of his best chances of the week. The key factor with him is the ground, as he loves it heavy having won on such a surface twice this season, both times around the undulations of Chepstow. That bodes well for his Cheltenham debut and his form has a really strong look to it, too. At Fontwell in December he was beaten by Get On The Yager, but he gave him 9lb that day and Dan Skelton’s horse went on to win the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. Then he easily beat subsequent Kelso winner Rons Dream, a 137-rated mare, giving her 13lb, before finishing second to RSA Chase hopeful Elegant Escape at Exeter last time. He travelled really nicely that day before being outstayed by a classy horse, but he shaped as though the nature of a big-field handicap would suit and the handicapper has given him a real chance by dropping him 3lb to a mark of 145. Only six, he’s improved in a short space of time this season but stays well, jumps well and looks to have an excellent chance off his current mark considering the strength of his form in similar conditions over the last few months. 10 Ramses De Teilleet30 611-2OR: 145 11/1 Form: 221212T: D PipeJ: T Scudamore Last run Live betting powered by I also want Nigel Twiston-Davies’ COGRY on side at 16/1 (General). He’s the sort of exposed horse you wouldn’t normally look for in a handicap of this nature, but this race is a different beast on heavy ground and his experience and staying power could well see him come to the fore. Second in the Scottish National last April, his ability to stay four miles will be a positive on Tuesday and he’s not short of pace over this trip at Cheltenham as he won over the course and distance back in October from Singlefarmpayment. That was off a 5lb lower mark, but he’s run well off his current rating of 138 since as he was second off that number to Milansbar in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January. He was sharpened up at the same track over 2m4f last time when he stayed on for third behind Casse Tete, but that should’ve put him spot on for this. Crucially, we’ve seen him try his heart out up the Cheltenham hill in testing ground before, as he won on soft ground over hurdles on New Year’s Day, 2017. This could come down to grit and determination and off his low weight, local hero Cogry should be backed to register his third course success, but first at the Festival. 17 Cogry31 910-9OR: 138CD 14/1 Form: 2-1P2U3T: N A Twiston-DaviesJ: Jamie Bargary (3) Last run Live betting powered by Finally, the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase closes the card on day one and Gordon Elliott’s second string TYCOON PRINCE looks the best bet at 20/1 (General). He was a good bumper horse that lost his way over hurdles but he’s rediscovered his form since going chasing and looked a novice of some potential when he thrashed Bunk Off Early at Leopardstown over Christmas. Stepped up in class to the Grade One Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase last month, he was no match for the mighty Footpad but was upsides Any Second Now when bowing out with a fall at the last. It wouldn’t have been a surprise to see him beat that horse had he stayed on his feet yet Ted Walsh’s charge is favourite for this race with Tycoon Prince 10 points bigger. That’s too big a discrepancy, especially with the step up in trip expected to suit Tycoon Prince. He had form over 2m4f over hurdles and is related to stayers including Puffin Billy. It could unlock further improvement from him over the larger obstacles and, as long as he’s not lost any confidence after his tumble, he looks a big player under Jack Kennedy. 3 Tycoon Princet38 811-9OR: 144 16/1 Form: P/45-21FT: G ElliottJ: J W Kennedy Last run Live betting powered by The other one I like at the prices is Paul Nicholls’ IBIS DU RHEU at 28/1 (General). He’s a lightly-raced second season novice with only five chase starts under his belt, but he was placed in good handicaps at Chepstow and Cheltenham last season off a mark of 146. Rated 147 at his best over hurdles after winning the Martin Pipe at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival, he looks nicely handicapped here off 141, the assessor dropping him 3lb following his seasonal reappearance at Newbury last time. That was admittedly uninspiring, but there’s a chance he just badly needed the run and at least he came down a bit in the weights for this assignment. Just 2lb higher than when he won the Martin Pipe, we know he can deal with the hustle and bustle of the Festival and testing ground holds no fear for him either. If things drop his way, he has the talent to take advantage. 13 Ibis Du Rheut31 711-6OR: 141CD 20/1 Form: 8/323P-4T: P F NichollsJ: Sam Twiston-Davies Last run Live betting powered by Posted at 1700 GMT on 12/03/18. Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +361.89pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Post by dennisg on Mar 13, 2018 7:54:07 GMT
With the ground at Cheltenham now officially heavy, Richard Mann takes a look at the horses who have proven they can handle the mud. 1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Previous winners with heavy in the going description: Claimantakinforgan First Flow Getabird Golden Jeffrey Mengli Khan Sharjah Summerville Boy Trainwreck Us And Them Western Ryder Dame Rose Verdict: All eyes will be Getabird as he bids to enhance Willie Mullins' fine record in this race. A Smart bumper performer, he has taken to hurdles really well and handled testing conditions with aplomb when winning the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle easily, while First Flow was an impressive heavy-ground victor at Haydock and should revel in these conditions. Connections of Kalashnikov have always maintained his wants better ground but there was plenty of cut underfoot when he landed the Betfair Hurdle while Simply The Betts and CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN both ran well in the soft at Musselburgh recently. The latter might be the one to take from that race as he will be much better suited by this stiffer track and looked at home on heavy going when winning a bumper at Haydock last season. 1 Claimantakinforgan37 611-7OR: 144BFD 18/1 Form: 235-113T: N J HendersonJ: Nico de Boinville Last run Live betting powered by 2.10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase Previous winners with heavy in the going description: Footpad Saint Calvados Robinshill Verdict: Although well backed for this race in recent weeks, really testing ground would be a slight concern for Petit Mouchoir given he has never won with heavy in the going description. In contrast to him, Saint Calvados has thrived in deep conditions since arriving on these shores and looked a young chaser of considerable promise when producing a faultless round of jumping on the way claiming Grade Two honours at Warwick. However, he still has plenty to find in order to stop FOOTPAD, a perfect three from three over fences and winner of Grade One contests the last twice. His recent defeat of Petit Mouchoir was particularly impressive and Mullins Mullins' charge won't mind these conditions in the slightest. 2 Footpad38 611-4OR: 162D 10/11 Form: 243-111T: W P MullinsJ: R Walsh Last run Live betting powered by 2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase Previous winners with heavy in the going description: Sizing Codelco Yala Enki Shantou Flyer Beware The Bear Wakanda Singlefarmpayment Ramses De Teillee Knight Of Noir Vic De Touzaine Cogry Eamon An Croic Verdict: Gold Present comes into this with a progressive profile and chasing a hat-trick but ground this testing would a concern for him. Coo Star Sivola did it well on soft at Exeter recently but has yet to win on ground with heavy in the going description while Ramses De Teillee might have bumped into one when finishing second at Exeter and remains a chaser on the up. Singlefarmpayment was second in this race last year and won't mind the recent rain but neither will YALA ENKI, a wide-margin winner in the Haydock mud recently and one for whom conditions should prove absolutely ideal. 3 Yala Enki24 811-9OR: 152 14/1 Form: P364F1T: Miss V WilliamsJ: Charlie Deutsch Last run Live betting powered by 3.30 Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Previous winners with heavy in the going description: Buveur d’Air Ch’Tbello Faugheen Wicklow Brave Yorkhill Verdict: This is all about BUVEUR D'AIR, a brilliant winner of last year's renewal and bidding to repeat the dose on the back of an excellent current season which has seen him lift a further two Grade One prizes. A horse who has always wanted to get his toe in, connections will have been pleased with the recent wet spell and he should prove very hard to beat once again. 2015 hero Faugheen hasn't quite looked the force of old since returning from injury but he still ran well last time and first-time cheekpieces might well sharpen him. Testing underfoot conditions won't bother him, nor stablemate Wicklow Brave, but My Tent Or Yours would prefer a quicker surface on which to operate. He has been a fine servant, finishing second in three Champion Hurdles, but won't find these conditions to his liking. 1 Buveur D'Air38 711-10OR: 169CD 8/13 Form: 111-111T: N J HendersonJ: B J Geraghty Last run Live betting powered by 4.10 OLGB Mares’ Hurdle Previous winners with heavy in the going description: Apple’s Jade Benie Des Dieux Jer’s Girl (FLAT) Verdict: Another of the week's bankers, APPLE'S JADE ticks all the right boxes and should prove very hard to beat. The Gordon Elliott-trained mare was a good winner of this race last year and returns 12 months on in similarly good form having enjoyed another fruitful season. He defeat of Supasundae over Christmas has been well advertised since and back against her own sex, with underfoot conditions no issue, she cannot be opposed. Willie Mullins can boast an astonishing record in this race over the years so Benie Des Dieux, who has winning form on heavy, must be respected switching back to hurdles. La Bague Au Roi might prefer better ground than facing her here but she won well on soft last time while Jer's Girl has a Flat win to her name on heavy and might have gone close in this race last year but for a crunching fall. 1 Apple's Jadet75 611-5OR: 158CD 8/13 Form: 211-111T: G ElliottJ: J W Kennedy Last run Live betting powered by 4.50 National Hunt Chase Previous winners with heavy in the going description: Clondaw Cian Impulsive Star Jury Duty Mossback Pylonthepressure Rathvinden Robin Of Locksley Shades Of Midnight Sizing Tennessee Ms Parfois Verdict: JURY DUTY heads a strong Irish challenge and warmed up for this when finishing second in Grade Three company at Naas last time. He handled the soft-heavy ground really well that day and his performance can be marked up given he was carrying a penalty following a Grade Two success earlier in the season. Well backed for this in the last week, he should run very well but might find Rathvinden a strong adversary. The latter ploughed through the mud when winning at Tipperary back in October and looks worth a try over this longer trip while similar comments are applicable to Impulsive Star, a dour stayer who loves to get his toe in. 5 Jury Dutyt144 711-6OR: 148 11/2 Form: 6-12122T: G ElliottJ: Mr J J Codd Last run Live betting powered by 5.30 Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase Previous winners with heavy in the going description: Testify De Plotting Shed Le Rocher Demi Sang Barney Dwan Rocklander Livelovelaugh Ballyhill Kayf Adventure Cobra De Mai Verdict: Any Second Now was a smart operator over hurdles and has taken to the larger obstacles nicely, his second to Footpad a couple of starts ago reading really well in the context of this race. He can go close but fellow Irish-raider DE PLOTTING SHED is preferred. He has plenty of heavy-ground form and has shown enough when chasing home the likes of Presenting Percy and Saturnas to suggest he is on a good mark over fences. Testify is another who will relish these conditions while the improving Barney Dwan won't mind them either. 9 De Plotting Shedt47 811-8OR: 143BFD 13/2 Form: 24-2522T: G ElliottJ: D N Russell Last run
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 13, 2018 7:58:20 GMT
Tuesday: going, weather & non-runners Cheltenham GOING: HEAVY (Soft in places) (GoingStick 5.3) WEATHER: Partly cloudy NON RUNNERS: 3:30 Verdana Blue (13) 5:30 Divine Spear (11) Newcastle (AW) GOING: TAPETA: STANDARD WEATHER: Cloudy STALLS: 2m - Inside; Remainder - Centre Sedgefield GOING: HEAVY (GoingStick: Chs 5.9, Hdl 5.7) (Precuationary INSPECTION 8.30am Tuesday) WEATHER: Cloudy Southwell (AW) GOING: FIBRESAND: STANDARD WEATHER: Cloudy STALLS: 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside NON RUNNERS: 4:25 Grecian Divine (1)
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 13, 2018 8:00:02 GMT
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
(1.30: GRADE ONE — 2 MILES AND ½ FURLONG)
The last nine winners of this race had all run at least four times over hurdles, which raises a doubt over the experience of favourite Getabird.
That said, he boasts an Irish point - to-point win and jumped with great fluency at Punchestown to thump Mengli Khan last time out. It goes without saying he is respected, but there is a chance FIRST FLOW may have been underestimated.
He will love the prospect of atrocious ground having ploughed through deep conditions to win at Haydock and, as a robust, chasing type, today’s examination should hold no fears for him. Of his rivals, Paloma Blue should relish the stronger gallop generated by a big field if his effort at Leopardstown behind the all-conquering Samcro is anything to go by.
He was too exuberant for his own good that day but it was still a fine performance. Summerville Boy is another thought to want better ground than he has tackled for much of the winter but it is worth recalling he beat Betfair Hurdle winner Kalashnikov in Grade One company at Sandown in January.
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 13, 2018 8:00:26 GMT
ARKLE TROPHY CHASE
(2.10: GRADE ONE — 2 MILES)
FOOTPAD has looked a natural over fences from the word go and will be very difficult to beat if showing the same aptitude for his obstacles as he has done in all three starts this term. He made all to see off Petit Mouchoir at Leopardstown in Grade One company last month and, although some expect the latter to turn the tables as it was first run in 108 days, he will have to jump more proficiently here.
The selection barely put a foot wrong at Leopardstown and was well on top at the line, which suggests there is a good deal more to come. And it is worth recalling he was fourth in last year’s Champion Hurdle as a five-year-old.
Saint Calvados is the only novice chaser at two miles which can hold a candle to Footpad in the jumping stakes. He has accumulated a swift hat-trick over fences this year and rattled up another exemplary round at Warwick when seeing off another small field from the front. The deep ground will be no issue for him and he is likely to take some pegging back if establishing a good rhythm early on.
ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
(2.50: GRADE THREE — 3 MILES AND 1 FURLONG)
In this event 12 months ago Singlefarmpayment was narrowly beaten into second and his whole campaign looks to have been centred around going one better. He had every opportunity to win 12 months ago, but looked to be outfought on the run to the l ine and may be vulnerable again. Novices and second-season chasers have won 14 renewals this century so COO STAR SIVOLA makes plenty of appeal on the back of a facile Exeter warm up.
Trainer Nick Williams has had this race in mind all season for his horse, who finished fourth in last year’s Martin Pipe Hurdlefourth and has accrued plenty of experience of the Cheltenham fences in decent novice chases this season. The step up to three miles appeared to bring more improvement and he is pleasingly handicapped.
It is debatable whether Grand National aspirant Gold Present will like the ground this bad, but David Pipe has won this event three times in the last decade so confirmed mudlark Ramses De Teillee fits a number of the trends of past winners, while conditions will represent no issue.
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 13, 2018 8:00:44 GMT
CHAMPION HURDLE
(3.30: GRADE ONE — 2 MILES)
BUVEUR D’AIR will achieve the perfect ten if he can repeat last year’s victory in this race and bookmakers believe his claims are highly compelling. Nine previous wins have led to Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old being installed as the red-hot favourite to follow up his four-length defeat of stablemate My Tent Or Yours and, given the conditions, he is difficult to oppose, with Faugheen fighting to regain his best form.
That may prove beyond the 2015 champion, even with cheekpieces applied for the first time. The last hurdler to win this race at his age was Sea Pigeon in 1981. Given My Tent Or Yours is another year older, the International Hurdle winner won’t attract the support of trends fans, but his Cheltenham record reads 222221 and those figures include being runner-up three times in this event. Given such a consistent Prestbury Park record, My Tent Or Yours could well make the frame again.
Elgin coped with atrocious ground at Wincanton to win the Kingwell Hurdle and has been supplemented at a princely cost, which could well pay off with a huge run.
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