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In this week's 'Weights & Measures' blog, Ben Linfoot ponders William Henry's future following the most lenient hike for a Lanzarote winner in a decade.
Could William be the Coral king?
William Henry >>>> Up 6lb to 151
Spiritofthegames >>>> Up 5lb to 139
Red Indian >>>> Up 3lb to 137
Topofthegame >>>> Up 3lb to 142
This time last year Modus went up 11lb for winning the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton and, while you couldn’t argue William Henry was quite as impressive, he’s certainly got a more unexposed profile than that horse did a year ago. Time may well tell that 6lb for this was a lenient raise.
On paper it looked a good renewal and I think the form will work out like that. It’s not always the case with this race, so it’s a little surprising that his 6lb hike is the (joint) most lenient rise for the Lanzarote winner in the last decade (see table below – as you can see, it’s not worked out well for the majority of winners on their next start).
Admittedly, he did have to work quite hard for his three-quarter length win. Two or three horses in front of him were travelling better rounding the home turn, presumably the point he traded at 55 in-running on Betfair, and he was firmly driven out to repel Spiritofthegames.
But I thought there was a deceptive cosiness to this success. It was also just his fifth start over hurdles, a discipline he’s reverted to after an aborted novice chasing campaign, and it was the furthest he’s ever gone, even if only by half-a-furlong.
He shaped like a stronger pace would suit, he shaped like three miles would suit and the similarities with the Whisper of a few years ago are striking. Also trained by Nicky Henderson, also owned by Dai Walters, Whisper was a lightly-raced hurdler in the 2013-14 season, rising in the weights from 137 to 153 by the time he took part in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.
Nico de Boinville, a talented claimer back then, took 5lb off Whisper in the Coral Cup and the pair won by a short head. “That’s the best 5lb in the country,” said Henderson in the afterglow of their Coral Cup victory. “We stopped him riding a week ago to protect that claim.”
If Henderson could stop James Bowen riding now, in order to protect his 5lb claim for the Festival, I’m sure he would. But this is a juggernaut that cannot be stopped at present. Hot on the heels of his superb Welsh National win on Raz De Maree, Bowen was at it again on William Henry, his paint-scraping rail ride saving ground before he was pulled out to challenge in the home straight.
The Lanzarote was Bowen’s 38th winner, so he’s just two wins away from that 5lb claim turning into 3lb now. Expect that to happen soon. His 3lb claim will still be valuable in those tight Festival handicaps, though, and it would be no surprise if William Henry’s connections have already pencilled him in for the Coral Cup.
I’m not one for betting in Cheltenham Festival handicaps in the middle of January, but, up just 6lb, at 14/1, it’s tempting. Only the lure of trying to find something even better handicapped at a bigger price prevents me from diving in.
At slightly bigger odds of 16/1, there is Lanzarote runner-up Spiritofthegames. Up 5lb for finishing second here, he’s another lightly-raced hurdler on the up. Also claimer-ridden, Bridget Andrews taking 3lb off his back, he clearly goes well fresh so presumably heads straight to Cheltenham now.
But it's William Henry that looks the interesting one with the immediate months in mind. Looking at other recent winners of this race below, I'd fancy him to be more Saphir Du Rheu than Oscara Dara.
Lanzarote Winners In The Last Decade
2017 Modus (Up 11lb, 6th in Cheltenham handicap on next start)
2016 Yala Enki (Up 8lb, 3rd in Sandown handicap)
2015 Tea For Two (Up 19lb, 2nd in Ascot novice hurdle)
2014 Saphir Du Rheu (Up 13lb, 1st in Ffos Las handicap)
2013 Oscara Dara (Up 14lb, 13th in Ffos Las handicap)
2012 Swincombe Flame (Up 6lb, 3rd in Ascot handicap)
2011 James De Vassy (Up 7lb, 9th in Auteuil listed hurdle)
2010 Michael Flips (Up 10lb, 9th in Ascot handicap)
: Coral Cup (Non Runner, No Bet)
Kempton Park
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@kemptonparkrace
William Henry (7-1) digs deep to win the @32red Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle and provides Nicky Henderson with his third success in the race.
2:53 PM - Jan 13, 2018
Replies 8 8 Retweets 23 23 likes
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Waiting worth a go down in trip
Waiting Patiently >>>> Up 8lb to 164
It’s only 14 months since Waiting Patiently made his debut for Malcolm Jefferson in a novices’ handicap chase off a mark of 123. Five unbeaten starts over fences later, he’s now rated 164. Turns out he was slightly well-handicapped that day at Sedgefield.
Saturday’s eight-length victory over Art Mauresque in the Listed 32Red Casino Chase was a coming-of-age performance. We didn’t learn too much from his Carlisle cruise in November, but this effort suggests he’s out of the very top drawer.
Giving 4lb and a significant beating to horses rated 150 and 163, he travelled smoothly and won easily on what was probably the best ground he’s ever encountered, certainly as a chaser.
Clearly not short of speed, connections look to be sounding out a potential bid for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase and why not? With Altior potentially going there without a prep run and with Douvan’s participation still seeming unlikely, the race looks up for grabs.
Politologue, the second favourite, was one of the horses left in Waiting Patiently’s trail when the pair met at Haydock last January. Perhaps that’s in the Jeffersons’ minds and you can see the line of thinking.
A crack at the Game Spirit could tell us more. Plenty depends on the weather Cheltenham week, too. He’d need at least a bit of cut in the ground over two miles, you would think. But, at 16/1 for the Champion Chase, without the Non Runner No Bet concession, there is a sizeable carrot being dangled about what is clearly a top-class horse. He’s half the price with the concession if you’re an insurance type of guy/gal.
The bookies think he’ll end up in the Ryanair, as he’s a best-price 10/1 for that race, or 6/1 with the NRNB firms. That’s fair on the balance of his form, but it’s the Queen Mother option that intrigues me. I think he’s well worth a go.
: Queen Mother Champion Chase (NRNB)
Sporting Life
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@sportinglife
😲 Waiting Patiently wins ridiculously well at Kempton
🌤 The sky's the limit
2:17 PM - Jan 13, 2018
Replies 3 3 Retweets 2 2 likes
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Windfall firmly in RSA mix
Fountains Windfall >>>> Up 12lb to 158
The staying novices’ over fences haven’t caught the imagination in either England or Ireland so far this season. So much so that Monalee, a horse that fell on his last start, remains favourite for the RSA Chase.
So, when a novice rated 146 goes into open handicap company, gives experienced rivals loads of weight and a healthy beating, you have to sit up and take notice. Fountains Windfall, for Anthony Honeyball, enters RSA calculations.
He certainly lays a claim to be best of British in the division. Now rated 158, he’s 3lb higher than Black Corton, a horse that won the Grade One Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Christmas when Fountains Windfall hit the turf (was going well at the point of departure).
It wasn't the first time he's fallen over fences, which is a concern with future Grade One events in mind, but he jumped well on Saturday and this will have done his confidence the world of good.
Whether he’s a Cheltenham horse, though, is an unknown. He has not run at the track since finishing down the field in a bumper and, with that in mind, enthusiasm is tempered for an RSA bet at a best-price 10/1.
He could be a Mildmay horse, however. He hosed up in a good handicap hurdle at Aintree last spring and he clearly excels on flat tracks. That could be the race for him. Either way, he looks to have the class to mix it with the best staying novices around.
: RSA Chase (NRNB)
Cheltenham trial key for Redicean
Redicean >>>> New entry at 137
Redicean took his tally to two from two over hurdles since joining Alan King from David O’Meara’s and he’s still running like a Flat horse in that he’s not the most fluent over his obstacles.
Clearly, though, he’s got ability in this sphere, as his new official rating of 137 suggests, although I did think 10/1 for the Triumph Hurdle was a touch on the short side.
Doing his opposition for speed twice around Kempton is very different to the examination he’d get in a Triumph, so it was no surprise that King’s assistant Ollie Wardle said he could turn up at Cheltenham on trials day.
That might well tell us one way or the other whether he’s got the tools for a Triumph Hurdle. It seems the bookies think he has, with King’s superb record with juveniles certainly heavily factored into this horse’s Festival odds.
: JCB Triumph Hurdle (NRNB)
Alan King: Knows a thing or too about training juvenile hurdlers
Jenkins still has plenty to prove
Jenkins >>>> Up 11lb to 143
On his bumper form and his maiden hurdle win Jenkins was chucked in off a mark of 132 at Kempton on Saturday, but you could’ve said that on his two previous starts this season off ratings of 137 and 135 and he was well beaten in those assignments.
The difference? The main one was that this was an easier race. But he also got to the lead early and made all, while the first-time blinkers sharpened him up as well.
Whether he needs to be in front now to be at his best is a valid question, as is will the headgear work for a second time. But the most important thing to ponder is whether he can cut it back in a higher grade off an 11lb higher mark.
The Betfair Hurdle has been touted as a possible next port of call, presuming the Holloways Handicap Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday comes too quickly, and he’s not one I’d be rushing to back in either race considering his new mark and his overall profile.
His Newbury record stands up to close inspection, which is a positive with teh Betfair Hurdle in mind, but he still ran around under pressure on Saturday despite having plenty in hand.
He just doesn’t look the most straightforward. Life could be tough for him off his new mark, even if the 11lb rise was fully justified.
: Betfair Hurdle
Warwick Round-Up
Ms Parfois >>>> Up 12lb to 146
Mr Whipped >>>> Up 8lb to 146
Milansbar >>>> Up 9lb to 143
Over at Warwick the ground looked hard work and there was a bit of a shock in the feature Betfred Classic Handicap Chase with Milansbar, a horse that looked out of love with the game just a week previously, bouncing back to form.
Pushed along and not going anywhere fast before he unseated Trevor Whelan in the Welsh National seven days ago, a change of headgear (to blinkers) and a change in jockey (to Bryony Frost) worked the oracle at Warwick.
Frost got him jumping brilliantly and he subsequently travelled with zest, something he hasn’t done for ages. Well handicapped off 134 on his old form, he’s back up towards the mid 140s now and you would think life will become tough once again.
The standout performance of the afternoon at Warwick came from Ms Parfois in the Listed Hampton Novices’ Chase, won by American last year and subsequent JLT hero Black Hercules the year before that.
She saddled a 5lb penalty in her first race against the boys and did this really nicely, her jumping an obvious asset though she stays very well, too. A stablemate of the aforementioned Fountains Windfall, Honeyball has a couple of really nice novice chasers on his hands.
Mr Whipped won the Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle for owners Grech & Parkin, the same team that have Sky Bet Supreme hopeful Claimantakinforgan among their number.
Like that horse, Mr Whipped is now rated 146 so they have two good young horses to go to war with in the best novice hurdles that the spring has to offer.
: Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (NRNB)
Ms Parfois in action at Warwick
Ms Parfois: Jumped really well at Warwick
Terrefort looks the real deal
Terrefort >>>> Up 14lb to 151
It wouldn’t be a week in racing without another Simon Munir/Isaac Souede acquisition to get excited about and the latest up-and-comer in the dark green silks is grey French import Terrefort.
Sent off the 6/4 favourite on his debut for Nicky Henderson, in a novices’ handicap off a mark of 137 at Huntingdon last Friday, he took them apart with a ruthless display, jumping well and galloping all the way to the line over two and a half miles.
Up a stone to a rating of 151, this forces the hand of connections in the way of graded races and the Altcar Novices’ Chase at Haydock, won by the same owners’ Bristol De Mai two years ago (and by Waiting Patiently last year) looks like being his next assignment if the immediate post-race conclusions of Munir and Souede’s Racing Manager Anthony Bromley prove spot on.
At 20/1 for the RSA Chase and 20/1 for the JLT, it seems Terrefort is a tad under the Cheltenham radar at the moment. After just one British start, on a Friday at Huntingdon, that is perhaps understandable, but I’d be mildly surprised if the odds for at least one of those races don’t shorten significantly in the coming weeks.
: RSA Chase (NRNB)
Hike Of The Week
Chef Des Obeaux >>>> Up 16lb to 145
This week’s highest climber is Nicky Henderson’s Chef Des Obeaux, up 16lb to 145 on the back of a 19-length win in the 32Red Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday. Up in trip to three miles for the first time, he’s clearly a different beast over staying trips and is a best-priced 25/1 for the Albert Bartlett at BetVictor.
Get Down On It, Get Down On It
Charming Zen >>>> Down 3lb to 136
Ballydine >>>> Down 4lb to 131
Shotgun Paddy >>>> Down 4lb to 124
Another trio of ratings droppers to consider for your My Stable trackers this week.
Down 3lb at 136… it’s Charming Zen, for Nicky Henderson, sent off 5/2 favourite in the race Jenkins bolted up in. Unfortunately for Charming Zen he barely beat a rival home when trailing 38 lengths behind his stablemate. He was a bit keen, but, considering his market position, this run looks too bad to be true and when that’s the case the handicapper usually leaves them alone. After just three races, including the promise he showed on debut for Dan Skelton, he’s worth another chance.
Down 4lb at 131… we have Ballydine for Charlie Longsdon. Back this season after an absence of 20 months, he’s shown that he’s retained his ability on both runs this campaign and he travelled well at Leicester last Thursday before weakening late on. Perhaps he bounced, perhaps he’s not as good as he was, but I’m convinced he retains ability and off 131 he’s going to be of interest when stepped back up in trip to three miles.
Down 4lb at 124… Shotgun Paddy. After the exploits of Emperor’s Choice and Milansbar in recent weeks it seems that regressing staying chasers still have their opportunities and it might not be time to keep on dismissing Shotgun Paddy just yet. Rated 151 in his pomp, he’s a world away from that sort of form these days but off 124 there’s no denying he’s seriously well handicapped. It’s only a year he was third in the Classic Chase behind One For Arthur off 139 and he didn’t run badly off 135 at Chepstow in December. There could be another pay day in the old boy yet.