in today's sporting life.....................
Ben Linfoot rounds up the latest adjustments to the official ratings following a busy period of action with the Gold Cup picture to a 95-rated chaser covered.
Rivals line up to take a crack at Gold
Sizing John >>>> Remains on 170*
Might Bite >>>> Up 4lb to 169
Thistlecrack >>>> Down 3lb to 167
Bristol De Mai >>>> Down 6lb to 167
Road To Respect >>>> Up 4lb to 167*
Double Shuffle >>>> Up 15lb to 166
Tea For Two >>> Remains on 164
Balko Des Flos >>>> Up 7lb to 164*
Outlander >>>> Down 1lb to 163*
Coney Island >>>> Up 4lb to 162*
* = Irish rating.
What to make of the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup market after Christmas? Events at Kempton and at Leopardstown have shaken things up significantly with the big two, Sizing John and Might Bite, flip-flopping as favourites after contrasting fortunes over the festive period.
Sizing John, though, remains top of the official ratings tree in the division with his rating frozen at 170. Such was the manner of his disappointing defeat, when beaten 32 lengths in seventh in the Leopardstown Christmas Chase, the only logical conclusion is that something must’ve been amiss.
Pretty much immediately after the race he was reported to be ‘clinically abnormal’ and more tests await the eight-year-old who was previously unbeaten over trips around and in excess of three miles.
Hopefully Jessica Harrington can get him right for March, as it would be a rare thing these days for the Gold Cup winner to turn up at Cheltenham fighting fit and raring to go in defence of his title. He’s a best of 8/1 to retain it.
Plenty are snapping at his heels now in a bid to wrestle his crown from him and heading those is King George VI Chase winner Might Bite (best-price 4/1 favourite), up 4lb to 169 having already been raised 3lb due to that collateral form with stablemate Whisper (explaining why he appeared with an OR of 162 on your King George racecards).
Bristol De Mai, Whisper and Fox Norton failed to run to form, so it looks as though the race has been rated around third home Tea For Two, pretty reliable all told and especially so at Kempton.
On a line through that 164-rated rival Might Bite’s new rating of 169 looks about right, with the only ‘problem’ being the proximity of runner-up Double Shuffle, rated 151 heading into the King George. BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith has sorted that, however, by whacking up Tom George’s charge fully 15lb to a new rating of 166.
A repeat bid for the BetBright Chase back at Kempton, in which he was second last year off a mark of 149, looks out of the question for him, then. The question is, is it possible for a horse that had previously run 17 times without suggesting that he’s a top-class Grade One performer suddenly turn into one? Or was he flattered by his finishing position in the Boxing Day highlight?
The case for the (Phil Smith) defence is thus: His form has improved since the application of a hood six starts ago (he’s only been out of the first two once in the headgear and that was when he was pulled up in the Grand National), and he was hugely unexposed at the trip (he ran over three miles just twice prior to the King George, both at Kempton, finishing first and second).
There was a touch of the Bristol De Mais (we’ll get onto him shortly) about this performance, though. Double Shuffle clearly thrives at Kempton, half of his rivals seriously underperformed and though a new rating of 166 puts him firmly in the Gold Cup picture, best odds of 50/1 about him for the race are inflated for a reason.
A flat track certainly looks to bring the best out in him, so a tilt at the Betway Bowl at Aintree, won last year by the aforementioned Tea For Two, looks the race for him. Either that or a trip to Punchestown, which might be even more suitable given the right-handed configuration.
As for Bristol De Mai, he had that 173 rating allotted to him following the Betfair Chase for just one race. Smith said that he’d like to see the horse back the performance up somewhere other than Haydock and in failing to do so he’s swiftly back down to 167.
That’s the same number as Thistlecrack who came on plenty for his Newbury reappearance over hurdles. He jumped and travelled well and wasn’t far off his best here. If he comes on for it again he could well be a player in the Gold Cup, even if it looks doubtful he’ll ever reach the 174 heights he attained at his peak over timber.
Away from the King George, the Leopardstown Christmas Chase, formerly the Lexus, often gives us Gold Cup clues at this time of year and the latest edition looks no different. While Sizing John and Yorkhill disappointed, it was left to Road To Respect to see off fellow Gigginstown team-mates Balko Des Flo and Outlander in a finish dominated by maroon.
Up 4lb to 167, Road To Respect is rated just a couple of pounds inferior to Might Bite and he also has a Cheltenham Festival win under his belt following that victory in the Brown Advisory And Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase last year.
A consistent horse, not out of the first two in his last seven starts, he took his performance level to a best-ever number in a first-time hood and the form shouldn’t be underestimated. If he stops jumping to his left further improvement could well be forthcoming.
And finally we get to Coney Island who ran at Ascot way back on December 23. An impressive win in the three-runner Sodexo Graduation Chase sees his official rating climb 4lb to 162 and he had some good novice chase form to his name having finished second to Our Duke in Grade One company a year ago.
There’s more to come from him once he’s stepped back up in trip and he’d have every right to be labelled a Gold Cup dark horse were he not already firmly in the limelight as fourth favourite in the market at a best-priced 12/1.
: Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
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👑Might Bite
🥈Double Shuffle
🥉Tea For Two
🏆Who's backing Might Bite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup?
3:19 PM - Dec 26, 2017
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Arkle, Arkle, Arkle
Footpad >>>> New entry at 157*
Cyrname >>>> Up 11lb to 150
Footpad didn’t put a foot wrong in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown. He did them for speed, burning off main market rival Death Duty, jumping brilliantly again, in deeper company this time, in a performance that screamed Arkle Trophy.
He is still officially 4lb inferior to Sceau Royal, also owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, with the Irish assessor putting him in at 157, but there’s no doubt he looks the flashier two-mile chaser of the pair and he did finish three lengths ahead of him in the Champion Hurdle.
Therefore it’s no surprise that he’s a strong favourite for the Arkle, generally 7/4, with some firms even pricing him up for the Queen Mother Champion Chase (Sky Bet go 10/1).
That looks an unlikely scenario given Willie Mullins’ Champion Chase options and lack of alternatives for an Arkle challenge. Though we’ve seen the likes of Coneygree and Thistlecrack excel as novices in open company in recent seasons, it would be very much against the grain for Mullins to head that way.
More surprising than Footpad’s appearance in the Champion Chase market, though, is the lack of quotes for Cyrname in the Arkle.
I get that he jumped to his right a bit at Newbury and that trainer Paul Nicholls suggested he’d stick to right-handed tracks for the foreseeable, but such problems can be ironed out and plans can change.
This is a race that has produced three Arkle winners in the last six years thanks to Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Altior and, while I’m not saying Cyrname will add his name to that list, he was impressive at Kempton, fully justifying an 11lb rise to 150.
That puts him on the periphery of an Arkle challenge, but only Bet Victor have priced him up for the race at 16/1. He’d certainly be an interesting contender, even with something to prove going left-handed.
: Racing Post Arkle Trophy
Cyrname wins the Wayward Lad
Cyrname: Followed in the hoofprints of Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Altior at Kempton
Other Kempton Winners Round Up
Buveur D’Air >>>> Remains on 169
Black Corton >>>> Remains on 155
If The Cap Fits >>>> Up 6lb to 145
Hell’s Kitchen >>>> Up 7lb to 144
Kayf Grace >>>> Up 8lb to 140
Golan Fortune >>>> Up 5lb to 137
Buveur D’Air proved he was alive and well in the Christmas Hurdle when he could’ve moonwalked away from The New One and he’s done everything very easily this season.
He could well be better than a 169 horse and hopefully that will be tested in the Champion Hurdle, but it looks a less likely scenario now with the doubts surrounding Faugheen.
Black Corton’s remarkable run of form under Bryony Frost continued in the Grade One Kauto Star Novices’ Chase but he also didn’t have to do anything we hadn’t seen from him before.
He didn’t have to improve and stays on a rating of 155 with Paul Nicholls saying he’ll likely go straight to the Festival now, probably for the RSA Chase for which he’s a 20/1 chance.
Harry Fry’s If The Cap Fits finds himself 10/1 second-favourite with the sponsors for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle after going up 6lb to 145 following his impressive win in the 32Red Casino Novices’ Hurdle.
He is improving but owes his position in the market partly because of that crazy Grade One Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown, where Mengli Khan ran out and Sharjah and Real Steel fell independently at the last when clear.
If The Cap Fits’ stablemate Hell’s Kitchen put in a mighty round of jumping in the 32Red.com Chase (novices’ handicap) and has gone up 7lb on the back of that to 144, while Kayf Grace and Golan Fortune are up 8lb and 5lb respectively following their Kempton wins.
Buveur D'Air on his way to victory at Kempton
Buveur D'Air: Had a Christmas cruise at Kempton
Poetry in motion for O’Brien
Poetic Rhythm >>>> Up 1lb to 148
Mulcahys Hill >>>> New entry at 147
A first Grade One for Fergal O’Brien courtesy of Poetic Rhythm’s gutsy success in the Grade One Betfred Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, although he hardly had to improve at all to land the prize.
The assessor has put him up 1lb to 148 on the back of his short head success over Mulcahys Hill, a horse that had just one previous start over timber to his name – a success in a Ffos Las maiden.
But when you factor in the fact this horse had colic three weeks previously this was a really game effort and improvement can certainly be expected when he steps up to three miles in the Albert Bartlett (for which he’s a 25/1 chance best prices).
: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Hike Of The Week
Maria’s Benefit >>>> Up 16lb to 152
Plenty can be missed over the busy racing period between Christmas and New Year, so if you didn’t see Taunton on Saturday all is forgiven.
However, it’s worth catching up on the performance of Maria’s Benefit in the Listed totetrifecta Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the track as she absolutely bolted up by 30 lengths, fully deserving the hike of the week award.
She’s up 16lb to a mark of 152, putting her firmly in the picture for the Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, a race for which she’s a general 8/1 shot.
The handicapper assigned with doing the maths for Maria’s Benefit, David Dickinson, admitted it was tough to come up with a figure for her, though.
He wrote in the Handicappers Blog on the BHA website: "If judged through any of the other three 130+ horses in the race, then this is top-class form. That is very hard to believe given that this only has Listed status and historically the winner rates in the high 130s. The overall time compared with the handicap on the card won by Attest, suggests a rating in the 140s but the split times make for very interesting reading.
"Maria’s Benefit was marginally slower to the second hurdle then Rio Bravo (who made the running in the handicap). By the time she jumped the same flight, then the third last, she was over six seconds faster than the handicap. This was a blistering burst, particularly in the back straight and she is clearly very good.
"I have come up with a figure of 152 for her performance, a rise of sixteen pounds. Anyone who tries to tell you that their (probably different) figure is the right one might be deluding themselves – this race is just about as difficult as handicapping gets."
: Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle
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"How did I get her beaten first time out at Worcester?"
Stuart Edmunds mulling options for Maria's Benefit after stroll at @tauntonracing.
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bit.ly/2BXRQ36 5:46 PM - Dec 30, 2017
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Do a little dance, make a little love, get down tonight
Sir Ivan >>>> Down 3lb to 139
Champagne George >>>> Down 4lb to 104
Grand Introduction >>>> Down 8lb to 95
Three horses this week from various (mainly lowly) levels of the game that might well be of interest now they’re dropping down the weights.
Down 3lb to 139… we have Harry Fry’s Sir Ivan. He had a tough task off top weight in a competitive little handicap at Kempton and wasn’t going from an early stage. Perhaps he was under the weather, perhaps it came too quickly after his Newbury third earlier in the month, perhaps nothing was wrong at all. Either way, he’s down into the 0-140 bracket now and on his Uttoxeter win off 135 in October he’s beginning to look nicely treated again.
Down 4lb to 104… it’s Neil Mulholland’s Champagne George. This grey gelding showed nothing on his seasonal return at Lingfield but his latest run at Fontwell, when keen up front in the hands of 7lb claimer Harry Reed, was a step in the right direction. Rated 112 after a novice hurdle win on spring ground at Fontwell in April, he’s dropped 8lb in two runs subsequently and is worth noting for when the better weather comes around (I know, it seems a long way off).
Down 8lb to 95… Grand Introduction for Fergal O’Brien. Now, O’Brien has pulled a few rabbits out of the hat in his best season yet and he will certainly have to with this fellow who has been pulled up in two starts so far this campaign. However, he’s been relatively well-backed on both starts and to be fair to him, only three of the nine runners finished his latest race at Wetherby. He showed ability as a novice hurdler (was rated 115 in that sphere) so a new chase rating of 95 could underestimate him somewhat. Admittedly, it takes a little imagination on his last two starts after a long lay-off, but he’s gone in my tracker so I thought I’d share him with you!